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The Coconut God

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Everything posted by The Coconut God

  1. The Coconut God

    Euron, not Cersei is the threat from the South

    Euron is the big enemy in the South because he has the Iron Fleet, and they will need the Iron Fleet to flee to Essos with the survivors after the Night King rolls over everyone.
  2. The Coconut God

    Episode titles

    Here we go: Episode 3 - Winter is Here / The Long Night Episode 4 - The Last Hero / A Time for Wolves Episode 5 - The Iron Price Episode 6 - A Dream of Spring / The Prince that was Promised (but who are we kidding, it's gonna be A Dream of Spring)
  3. The Coconut God

    Season 8: News, Spoilers And Leaks

    The problem is that the trial scenario doesn't have any potential for dramatic tension at this point. A lot of characters have made themselves partly responsible for Tyrion's actions by supporting him in spite of his failings. I mean, if the King makes Moonboy his Hand, and all his council, including the King's most loyal adviser and the smartest woman in Westeros, support Moonboy as Hand, even though all he ever did was act like a fool, is it really Moonboy's fault when he does something stupid in that position? Let's say Tyrion does one last stupid thing in the final three episodes and is tried for it. How would that trial not feel hollow and anticlimactic?
  4. Some of you may have heard about my Exodus Theory, but for those unfamiliar with it here's a summary: The Others are not an enemy that can be defeated, but rather a force of nature, like a tsunami or volcanic eruption. Their coming will force the people of the Seven Kingdoms to migrate to Essos in several waves of refugees, the first of which will be led by Jon on the Manderly Fleet. Dany will never reach Westeros proper, but she will help in the fight against Euron, who will serve as the main villain by blocking the passage across the narrow sea with his fleet and stolen dragon, in the hope that such a gigantic sacrifice will give him godlike powers. Brienne, Jaime and the BwB will undertake a journey North to find and rescue Bran, and eventually they will follow in the footsteps of the Last Hero and stop the Long Night from spreading beyond the Seven Kingdoms. If you want to dive deeper into it, its latest and most comprehensive incarnation can be found here. Since D&D said that the show and the books "will have the same outcome", I would like to explore what kind of implications my theory would have for the final season and the show as a whole. How will the Exodus happen in season 8, and just how accurate will the final seasons prove to be? In the books, if my theory is correct, the Exodus will start in the first half of TWoW and Jon will be in Braavos by the middle of the book. A lot of the story will take place in Essos, since that is the setting in which humanity will start its new future; Dany will sweep across the continent conquering the Free Cities one by one, and Braavos will act as a major foil for her in ADoS, having a similar importance to King's Landing in ACoK. Obviously, none of that was or has any time to be in the show. Why not? I can think of three plausible reasons: D&D wanted to spoil as little as possible from the books, and so they held back on the big Exodus twist until the very end, giving George a chance to reveal it earlier or around the same time in TWoW. Shifting a great deal of the focus towards Essos would have been a risky move, especially without the books doing it first. Ned's death and the Red Wedding were "tested" major twists. D&D likely did not have the balls to try a third one blind before the series was over. Especially when it meant the death of Westeros itself. Starting the Exodus early would have simply been too expensive. Deep snow in the North as early as season 6, new locations in Essos, new costumes, new minor characters, money, money, money. It would have been a lot more convenient to extend the screen life of existing locations. What did D&D replace the yet-to-be-published book material with? Here's are my educated guesses: Dany's arc in season 7 replaces fAegon's arc in TWoW. In the books, his main purpose will be to instigate another major conflict in the South, thus ensuring that the realm is truly incapable of fending off the Others. In the show, D&D attempted to please the fans and give us a taste of Dany conquering her ancestors' kingdom, but because fAegon is mostly a plot device in the greater scheme of things, this arc fell flat for her and it felt like she was a foil for Cersei more than anything else. Just like the Battle of the Bastards was a retread on Stannis's Battle of Ice, I believe the Battle for Winterfell in season 8 also borrows heavily from Stannis's last stand in early TWoW. The poor man was truly robbed of all his glory. Because they had to take her to Westeros, Arya most likely "inherited" LSH's and Manderly's arcs of killing Freys, then butted in on Sansa's arc of outsmarting Littlefinger. In the books, she will likely be heavily involved in Braavos's war against Dany - we'll see how that translates to their relationship in season 8. That leaves us with season 6, season 7 and half of season 8 repeatedly gravitating around the first half of TWoW (which makes sense, considering that's likely all the unreleased material D&D had access to), and the big Exodus reveal left for the final three episodes. Obviously it will be a heavily truncated version of what George has planned, doing away with all the Essos set-up and finer details and cramming a book and a half (if not more) into approximately four hours of TV. Here's my tentative prediction on how they'll be doing that: The Battle of Winterfell in episode three will be a crushing defeat, but some survivors will be evacuated by flanking them with dragonfire. In episode four, we might see them gathering a few more people (Hot Pie, etc.) while on their flight south to Dragonstone. Team Jon&Dany will have to decide on what to do next, and that's when the idea of the Exodus will be sprung. It's been established already that the wights and the Others do not swim, so Essos should be safe according to the lore of the show. Since most of Dany's fleet was destroyed during the attack on Casterly Rock (yes, this was the point of that arc), their only chance to take enough survivors with them would be to use Euron's fleet. They try to work out a deal with him and Cersei, but he either refuses or the price they ask is too high. The final showdown of GoT will then be a desperate attack on King's Landing to steal Euron's fleet and escape the Others, who will inherit Westeros and the Iron Throne. The city may or may not burn in the process. We get a brief epilogue with whoever survives the whole ordeal reaching Braavos and/or Meereen and bracing themselves for a new era for humanity, then we cut to the Night King sitting on the ruins of the Iron Throne The end. What do you guys think? Does it hold water? Would it be a satisfying direction for the story in the books? What about the show?
  5. The Coconut God

    Season 8: News, Spoilers And Leaks

    Is it just me, or does that leak about Tyrion's trial seem a lot less likely after this episode? His general incompetence was addressed, it doesn't look like he knew that Cersei would betray them, and so many characters vouched for him and praised his intelligence that it would seem downright comical if he screwed them over once again. I know Friki is generally trustworthy, but his sources don't have to be. This leak is based on shooting done in a single location for no more than a few days, It could have easily been one of those fake scenes they filmed to fool us. Particularly since it was in a well known, recently used open location.
  6. The Coconut God

    [Potential Spoilers] The Exodus Theory and the Show

    Not a lot of hints for the Exodus in this episode, but then again there weren't many hints for anything other than the battle to come. That exchange between Missandei and Grey Worm about returning to Naath could count, but it's more likely that it was merely setting up those characters' deaths. To be honest, I don't expect many hints in episode 3 either, other than Winterfell falling. But the way Jenny's song hangs sorrowfully on that one verse about leaving did get my hopes up. It's even more poignant in the complete version, where it becomes the refrain. Very fitting for the Exodus.
  7. The Coconut God

    Rant and Rave Thread

    One likely reason is that they're simply bad at what they do. GoT soared on the back of George's storytelling, continued to grow once it reached critical mass, and HBO had no reason to replace D&D because the show was more successful than they had expected even with bad writing. A kinder (and also quite logical) explanation is that they didn't have enough writers for a healthy script writing cycle. Especially in the later seasons, they used to write 70-80% of the scripts, which is an enormous amount of work for two people who are also the producers. Good shows tend to have more writers. They break the story for the whole season together, then each member of the team goes on to write the actual script for about two episodes, three at most... not six or seven. Then they go over the whole thing together and make changes if any are needed. D&D write most episodes together. That probably slows them down compared to two people writing half the episodes separately. They're probably in a hurry to finish everything in time for production. If they make mistakes, they can't afford to worry about them. If they don't do a proper season blocking in the beginning (which they may be inclined no to do, except for what happens in the 2 or 3 episodes written by other people, because "they're in charge anyway"), they may realize along the way that a plot line doesn't work (such as Dorne, or the Wight Hunt), but it won't matter because they won't have time to change it. When the alternative is delaying production, which would likely mean delaying the season for a year, they just have to brazen through and pretend it works. Having more writers would have helped them in two crucial ways: The blocking stage would have been pretty much necessary, so they would have had to do it right even if they consider themselves too cool for school. This stage would have also been implicitly better with more heads mulling over ideas, plot lines and character decisions. More writers would have meant more flexibility. Say they had 5 months between season end and production. Each writer would have had only 2, maximum 3 episodes to write in this interval. No need to rush, plenty of time left to polish the script, or even replace it if it was bad. With a team of two writing 7 episodes out of 10 together, they would have been constantly pressed for time. I have no idea how much money they saved by not having 2 or 3 more writers, or if it was an ego thing or an incompetence thing, but I'm sure it was a major contributing factor. Fewer writers probably worked when they could swipe lines from the books, but later on? Very bad idea.
  8. The Coconut God

    Season 8: News, Spoilers And Leaks

    It was without a doubt the fireplace in Dragonstone. You can look up an image and compare the texture of the stone. The Winterfell fireplace looked different.
  9. The Coconut God

    [Potential Spoilers] The Exodus Theory and the Show

    True, we will find out soon enough. Since you're such a fan of the show, I can only hope the idea will grow on you if the show does do it.
  10. The Coconut God

    [Potential Spoilers] The Exodus Theory and the Show

    We've had that confirmation for a long time. I obviously don't know what kind of story George decided to write, but I know that the Exodus is the best solution I can think of to the puzzle Feast and Dance left behind, and it makes a hundred times more sense in the books than it does in the show, because the books have plenty of set up for it. You calling it "awful writing" is just, like, your opinion, man.
  11. The Coconut God

    [Potential Spoilers] The Exodus Theory and the Show

    I'm almost certain that show Hardhome is books White Harbor. There are some meaty bits of foreshadowing in Davos's second chapter in ADwD, starting with the description of the Merry Midwife's figurehead.
  12. The Coconut God

    Season 8: News, Spoilers And Leaks

    Do we know anything else from the final three episodes other than this trial scene (and the fighting at King's Landing)? We are talking about an 80 minutes episode, even if a trial does happen, it can't be all about that. Even in season 4, the trial itself was only 16 minutes, and that one actually had depth to it (here he would be tried for something he did the previous episode, most likely). Also, what was the duration of the shoot? I can't imagine it being more than a day or two... One scene filmed in one day that doesn't necessarily tie to anything else we know could easily be fake.
  13. The Coconut God

    Season 8: News, Spoilers And Leaks

    I don't think the show proves number 3. It proves that Jaime and Bran will meet again, yes, but that doesn't need to take place at Winterfell. I'm betting on Brienne and Jaime leading an expedition north of the Wall with the BwB, mirroring the Last Hero story.
  14. The Coconut God

    [Potential Spoilers] The Exodus Theory and the Show

    I just noticed this, but there's a hint in the season 7 finale as well! During her scene with Tyrion, Cersei tells him: "All I could think about was keeping those gnashing teeth away from the ones who matter most. Away from my family. Maybe Euron Greyjoy had the right idea. Get on a boat, take those who matter..." But that was when Tyrion figured out she was pregnant and distracted us from what she was saying.
  15. The Coconut God

    Who betrayed Ariannes plans?

    That's a very interesting interpretation. I never noticed that angle. If Darkstar suspected something, the way he replied when Drey warned him about the local vipers could be read as a veiled threat: "I was weaned on venom, Dalt. Any viper takes a bite of me will rue it."
  16. The Coconut God

    [Potential Spoilers] The Exodus Theory and the Show

    There is hope indeed! Now I've also started thinking that the spirals may be a symbol of migration - the First Men pushing the Children and the Giants away from their lands, then the Andals pushing the First Men, then the Targaryens sort of pushing at the upper levels, and now the white walkers, a remnant of the elder races, are pushing the humans out of Westeros.
  17. The Coconut God

    [Potential Spoilers] The Exodus Theory and the Show

    I have my reservations too, of course, but I'll be damned if I won't enjoy exploring my theory until the last moment! D&D said the show will have the same outcome as the books, so I count on them to shoehorn anything... with an emphasis on the shoehorning as their primary contribution. What I'm not worried about is that it might be too out of the blue in the show. Ever since Shae's death, I know it doesn't need to make sense... it only needs to happen! That being said, I watched the first episode from season 8 and...
  18. The Coconut God

    [Potential Spoilers] The Exodus Theory and the Show

    Thank you for that! It was a nice interview, but, just as I expected, it doesn't really say what @T and A claims. He was probably thinking about this question here, which was about Sothoryos and the lands east of Qarth. Those were indeed only invented for the maps and the world book. George did admit that he was using the wiki resources to see what he had said about some of the Free Cities, and he also made a very, very interesting comment: "When I'm about to write something about Norvos, I go to their page and say 'What have I said about Norvos?'. Oh, I've said that everybody there has a pet grasshopper and they talk backwards. Ok. Now I have to add more stuff to that." He's talking about that at the present tense after the release of the world book. Hmmm... I wonder what that might mean.
  19. The Coconut God

    [Potential Spoilers] The Exodus Theory and the Show

    I'm not saying it would end on a cliffhanger. It's all about the tone of the conflict with the Others. People may be hoping for a LotR-style epic battle against darkness, but the fight in Game of Thrones will be more like Battlestar Galactica. The prequel would be an opportunity to offer them the high fantasy narrative as well. We come from the land of the ice and snow From the midnight sun, where the hot springs flow The hammer of the gods W'ell drive our ships to new lands To fight the horde, and sing and cry Valhalla, I am coming! It's not nice to pick and choose only the verses you like. You don't have to spoil me, but you could be kind enough to give me a link. The White Walkers naturally expand into dark and frigid environments as well. They may not even be a weapon of the Children in the books, so far only the show established that backstory.
  20. The Coconut God

    [Potential Spoilers] The Exodus Theory and the Show

    Interesting. I actually agree with you here. A strictly environmental message would be cliched at this point, and it doesn't really fit Westeros, since the humans don't seem to be directly responsible for the weird season (unless it's in some bullshit arcane and long forgotten way). So I'll adjust my position: The Exodus is not about climate change guilt. The message is there deep in the background if you want to read it that way, but that's not the point. The point is exploring the social and political consequences of a massive migration event, the kind which typically only climate change can trigger (regardless of its cause). This would be a lot more fascinating and original. And it would make us ask ourselves not how we can stop climate change (because we probably can't) but how we would deal with the inevitable large scale population movements it would inevitably bring after itself.
  21. The Coconut God

    Who betrayed Ariannes plans?

    It was Andrey Dalt. We get several clues in the Queenmaker chapter: We are told that he is not the most valorous of knights - then you have to ask yourself what he is doing partaking in a plot that could easily cost him his life if anything goes wrong. We are told that he suggested a larger party to Arianne, but she refused because she believed more people increased the risk of someone betraying them. A larger party would have been an easy way for Doran to infiltrate more of his own men in the group. When Areo Hotah shows up, he is the first one to say anything while everyone is still shocked. He acts surprised - "There's the last face I'd hoped to see" - which sounds more like he's trying to deflect suspicion. When Areo orders them to yield, he immediately advises Arianne to listen to him and he drops his sword without waiting for a confirmation from her. A very strong hint that he was working with Areo all along. Then we can look at the others, their actions and their punishments: Aerys gets himself killed trying to fight Areo, and if it was him he wouldn't have brought the princess there to begin with. Darkstar tries to kill Myrcella, which would have been totally counter to Doran's interests. Spotted Silva is married to an old dude who already has a lot of heirs, so there's nothing in the marriage for her, the punishment is real. Garin is sent away to Tyrosh (I think), which would be painful for him because he's an orphan of the Greenblood and he loves living on the river, again, the punishment is real. Andrey Dalt is sent to Norvos to serve Mellario Martel, which could in truth be a mission to inform her about Quentin's quest and get her to help him and Daenerys return to Dorne, if he is indeed Doran's trusted man.
  22. The Coconut God

    [Potential Spoilers] The Exodus Theory and the Show

    "The answer to the ending is one hundred percent hidden in the playlist choices. No one will believe us but it's true." - Benioff & Weiss. Ah-ah, ah! Ah-ah, ah!
  23. The Coconut God

    [Potential Spoilers] The Exodus Theory and the Show

    I see where you are coming from, but that wouldn't be a satisfying ending for me. A magical solution explained in the last second is a cop-out and a cliche. Particularly if it involves Bran, since: a) no indication was given so far that Bran could challenge the Night King, and b) our other heroes did nothing to get Bran to where he is now, he got to the Three Eyed Raven and back to Winterfell with his own group... so what purpose do they serve in the Bran vs Night King story? Why was the focus placed on them instead of Bran all this time? I would also be disappointed if killing the Night King destroys all the other white walkers and wights, since that would be way too convenient and also a cliche at this point. It's not an unlikely outcome, but the show will be remembered poorly if it happens. I think you focus too much on the lands and too little on the people. The Great War plot line is not pointless if it is fought and lost. The people can still find salvation in exile. You sound like you wouldn't blink an eye if 95% died fighting back the Others, but if 40% survive by fleeing it's a great tragedy, because thy don't get to own Winterfell anymore! The story of Moses doesn't suck because he didn't conquer Egypt. Anna Karenina isn't a bad novel because she dies at the end... I think that's going to be a problem with the show, not the books. The show won't have time to explore any of the themes related to the Exodus or show us in any great detail how the new world might look like in Essos, but if it happens in the books, we'll get a lot of that throughout Winds and Dream. And there will be a mission North to stop the Long Night the same way the Last Hero did, it's just that the lands already lost won't be immediately recovered just because the magical McGuffin is activated. That would be a cop-out. The key here is the climate change parallel. Some lands are lost and humanity may or may not be able to recover them in due time, but the immediate solution for the people who used to live there is to go to places that weren't that affected and try to live with the people there instead of fighting them. I think the fact that a Long Night prequel is in the works is an indicator that we might not learn all that much about the Others or see them defeated in season 8. They were defeated during the original Long Night, decisively enough that they vanished for millennia. Why would HBO make two series that basically build up to the same thing? My take is that GoT will end with a cautionary message and the Others reclaiming Westeros (which would have been their original purpose, if the Children made them to fight back the First Men), and the Long Night will go back in time to scratch that itch for a full-out war with them, and to show us how they were defeated (so we know there is some hope for the future of the GoT world) and how and why they were made (in order to confirm that they wouldn't spread beyond Westeros by design - meaning humanity is safe in Essos - and/or to build sympathy for the Children's plight and make us see a form of justice in throwing the humans off the continent they stole).
  24. The Coconut God

    [Potential Spoilers] The Exodus Theory and the Show

    You keep insisting that there has to be a definitive solution... that's very idealistic of you. The first thing they should do in order to avoid messing up is to stop fighting each other and keep their eyes on the problem. Other than that, I don't know. We might find more hints in the prequel show which is about the Long Night. Let's not forget that the first time around part of the solution was to build a big wall of ice and contain the problem. Similarly, if we melt the polar ice caps and some regions become flooded or uninhabitable due to weather conditions, recovering those areas right a way would be impossible.
  25. The Coconut God

    [Potential Spoilers] The Exodus Theory and the Show

    It may be unsatisfying for you personally, but it's not unsatisfactory as an ending. The message to us is clear: If you screw up, you will lose big time. You can't procrastinate endlessly thinking you'll brave all odds when your back is against the wall, or that a miraculous solution will present itself in the final hour. There won't be an apocalypse, humanity won't end in its entirety, and there may even be hope of retaking the lost lands one day... not by the heroes we've been following throughout the series, put perhaps by their children's children's children, if humanity stops messing up.
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