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Hajk1984

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  1. Hajk1984

    Dany is Azor Ahai

    AA may be a red herring. But I doubt it is so, especially if we accept the Azor Ahai=PtwP equivalence (which I sort of assumed). The particular prophecy has been emphasized far too much, I think, for that to be the case. That would feel like bad storytelling at this juncture. Even the show emphasizes this prophecy repeatedly (even though it coud have spoken of others, e.g. the possibility that the Stallion that mounts the World may be Dany etc. But it is the PtwP prophecy that comes up again and again. I don't know that AA has to physically fight the NK and kill him. All he has to do is beat him back. If this can be done then killing him may not be necessary. The NK may turn out to be impossible to kill, only beat back for a few thousand years until he returns again. There is no clear indication of what, if anything could kill the NK. The Children of the Forest don't even seem to know what could do it, and they are the ones who created him. And yes, Dany does seem to check more boxes than anyone (Aemon thought the dragons were definitive proof). The main argument against her seems to be that she is too obvious. But I think putting Jon at the Wall from the start has made her less obvious. It seems to be extremely subtle. So subtle, in fact, that I cannot see it. That Azor Ahai used his wife to forge it is a legend particular to the followers of the Lord of Light. However, the far more general memory shared by many different cultures (as in AWOIF) is the following: How long the darkness endured no man can say, but all agree that it was only when a great warrior—known variously as Hyrkoon the Hero, Azor Ahai, Yin Tar, Neferion, and Eldric Shadowchaser—arose to give courage to the race of men and lead the virtuous into battle with his blazing sword Lightbringer that the darkness was put to rout, and light and love returned once more to the world. Anyhow, it doesn't mean that the very same has to be done to forge it again. Especially if the old one is still around. Thoros of Myr says that it will have to be reforged in one of the histories and lore vids. But if this is a metaphor for dragons etc. then Dany has already done it with Drogo, hasn't she?
  2. Hajk1984

    Dany is Azor Ahai

    Okay, hear me out on this. I am not sure of this theory by a mile. However it is starting to make some sense to me. Here goes: Despite the fact that Dany crosses so many of the PtwP requirements, she is often dismissed from this role. One of the most common arguments is that this would be too obvious. All the things that make her Azor Ahai were already fulfilled by the end of Book 1. She is put into the role even before the prophesy itself first appears. Aemon literally calls her TPtwP because her dragons prove it and so on. And yet, despite all this, the reality is that we do not find her the obvious candidate. Why is that? Because another main character who has been put on the Wall and also seems to fulfill many of the requirements has spent the entire season focused on the threat from beyond the Wall. This has been effective enough, IMHO to no longer leave her the obvious candidate. In fact, from my impression, most of the fandom wants this prophecy to be true of Jon anyhow. That, however, is exactly why Dany is not too obvious despite all the obvious fulfilments of the prophecy. What makes me believe this further are some of the following: The show has tended to emphasize the supernatural and miraculous aspects of Dany's arc (in fact made her fire-proof, giving her even more powers than the books), while de-emphasizing Jon's (apart from his resurrection, which was also not due to himself and shared with another character, i.e. Berric), like his warging ability etc. Dany has now twice pulled out mighty weapons from the fire: 1) Dragons; and 2) The Dothraki army. The way the show has set it up, the one who is currently in the main position to lead this war with immense resources is actually Dany, not Jon. Azor Ahai is supposed to be the champion of Fire. The thing that first lead me to this view is a different reading of Dany's character than what is common (at least for me). I have argued before that although D&D have peppered her narrative with many 20th/21st century feminist sounding narratives, or words that seem to indicate a medieval idea of "Girl Power" or what not, any of this will actually be quite anachronistic. I certainly don't think it would be the way GRRM would be going. D&D are not above using spectacle and badasserry to get ratings and "Wow" moments. But the larger narrative has to be kept in mind as well. With this in mind, I am lead to what I feel is one of the more problematic parts of her story: Dany's whole deal with the Dothraki. Other than allowing the badass nature of the coup to make us ignore what happened, it is not exactly the high point of her arc. What she essentially does is kill the entire Dothraki leadership in a horrendous way and walks out and the Dothraki all bow down to her. Why? Because she is "strong"? Is she? Yes she can survive fire, but she can't hold her own against a single Dothraki Bloodrider in noral combat. So they can still kill her in a regular way without issue. She can hardly do what Drogo did to enforce his authority. But the Dothraki at this juncture think that this is some sort of great sign from on high. Some sort of religious or divine sign that she is to be followed without question. On the face of it, what happens next seems even more problematic: Dany exploits this false view of theirs (as far as she knows), and turns them into an army of conquest for her Westerosi ambitions. She doesn't stay back and try to improve Dothraki society and culture. She doesn't try to civilize them. They don't get the same sort of consideration as the freed slaves. Instead she uses their belief in "strength" etc. or their view of her as some sort of goddess to pull them out of the Dothraki sea where they have lived for centuries, put them on boats which they hate, and use them (or at least intends to) as fodder for her Westerosi wars of conquest. If this doesn't strike you as problematic, imagine someone doing it today. Suppose someone were to find a primitive tribe with customs we don't like, do something fantastic (e.g. fly an airplane over their heads) to convince them that the person doing it was some sort of goddess, and then made them serve them to construct buildings etc. (far less dangerous than war). I doubt this would be acceptable to most people because of the badass nature of the plane flying over them, or because according to their beliefs they were performing an honorable duty of working for their new goddess. But I seriously do not believe D&D intend to make Dany villainous in any way. Is there a way out of this? There is an obvious one: That Dany is actually convinced that putting her on the Iron Throne is something of such cosmic significance that helping her do that actually does give the Dothraki and those who serve her a "greater purpose", or a "greater destiny." That she actually is making their lives better by giving them the chance to fight for this great and worthy cause. She is "no ordinary woman." Her "dreams come true." She gets visions. She is told to remember who she is. Miracles happen about her. Why? I must be due to her destiny as the destined monarch. Now this may seem extremely, mind-blowingly entitled to us. Hard to believe that anyone might actually think this. Yet I think it is actually consistent with Dany's entire arc and what she has been saying all along, even her speech about "faith in herself" and being "born to rule the seven kingdoms" and so on. And everything she has done with this belief seems to give her one success after another. The problem with this, however, is that this cause is really not that amazing a cause. Dany, still retaining so much of Viserys' training might see it as the highest cause imaginable, but hardly any reader will. There is such a cause, however: Saving the world. This has not really been her cause (although she has tried to play savior in smaller contexts). But this cause is big enough to actually think like this if she indeed were the chosen savior. That may well be the greatest twist of the series. The character focused on the throne is the savior, while the character obsessed with saving the world is the future king. And so much of it was obvious and in plain sight from the beginning.
  3. Hajk1984

    sansa, arya, and dany

    I think the reason was very obvious. Royce didn't trust a Targaryen to not use this as a trap for Jon. He thought she'd trap him or possibly kill him as history showed. It gave more context for Jon's statements the following episode about being a "Northern fool" who didn't listen. Of course Davos, who probably realizes that Stannis may have executed Jon by now for his unwillingness to bend the knee thinks things have gone much better.
  4. Hajk1984

    Season 8 Predictions?

    We only have one scene in which Sansa tells him that he is the Lord of Winterfell now (as the last trueborn son) to which Bran says that he can't be lord of anything etc. (btw, not a good idea to oust Jon while he's away negotiating Sansa, it weakens his hand considerably, at least let him return). I suspect Sansa may have expected him to legitimize himself as a Stark sooner or later. At that juncture she thought he was the only brother left to her and perhaps the only way to continue the Stark name. If that were to happen, then in the normal course of things he would be expected to find Sansa a good match somewhere and she would become the lady of that place (with her children inheriting from there). AFAIK she would inherit everything owned by the Boltons already so that makes her an even bigger catch. Sansa is not entirely pleased with Jon's election, but it creates a conflict for her. It has advantages as well as disadvantages. On the one hand it seems like the best hope for a long-term Stark restoration in the North . On the other she may not like being passed over.
  5. Wonder what Alliser Thorne, a Targaryen loyalist who fought to the bitter end for the Mad King and was forced to take the Black by Tywin Lannister would think if he realized that the guy he had hated and killed wasn't a "traitor's bastard." Or even that he was now "sailing together" with the Targaryen Queen.
  6. Yeah I've read the released letter. He takes the position of warden and proclaims Dany the Queen. Nothing substantial here that doesn't already appear in Sansa's conversation with Littlefinger. Littlefinger is the one who wants to use this to create friction. Sansa plays him and ultimately executes him.
  7. I suspect some in the group (e.g. Tormund and the Hound) would care little for respect in the face of certain death if someone else wielding the sword them a better chance. And I doubt Jon would object.
  8. I think if there was going to be friction on this issue it would have been obvious. Sansa knows about it, as does Arya I gather. Bran certainly does (he has the scroll in his hands when Sam visits). I suspect Sansa would have already told the Northern lords and gotten them under control by the time Jon comes. The idea in the finale was that the pack is getting together, not fighting with itself. And for now, at least, Jon is the pack alpha. By the time anything about his paternity comes out they'll be fully involved in the war against the NK, and I doubt anyone will have any time for something like this.
  9. I hope the alliance with Jon can help her with this too. From what I can make out, currently she has a big army but not much territory. Jon just handed her half the realm (area-wise at least, and if the Vale is included then some very fertile area untouched by war as well). As Robert's rebellion shows, Stark and Arryn banners moving to remove the current occupant of the Iron Throne will not cause the sort of nationalistic resentment that plagues her now. I had forgotten Stannis' line. but yes, it may seem to fit her quite well. And once Jon's taint of bastardy is removed, a marriage with him will make her acceptance in Westeros more likely. No one can call him a foreigner.
  10. Moreover, in 7x06, the Fellowship of the wight included some decent fighters (Hound, Jorah, Berric, Thoros etc.). Who took on the White Walker? No one in the group even suggested that the Valyrian blade ought to be wielded by another in this desperate situation. Who actually stayed on the ground to make sure that the others would get on the dragon? Who seemed to be the best to be the last one on? It makes sense if he is supposed to be the best.
  11. I think we have strong reasons to believe that Tyrion is betraying Dany by the end. Unfortunately, I feel that this is a fairly strong possibility. First of all we still have (in the books) the “betrayal for love” prophecy hanging over Dany. I don’t believe Jon will be the betrayer there. Tyrion is a more shady character than he has been portrayed in the show. The ending of the series and show are going to be the same, so if Tyrion is going that way in one it will happen in the other. Now let’s look at the 7th season. Tyrion has constantly tried to restrain Daenerys. As he outright admits to Cersei, he has been trying to keep their family safe. This is the exact inverse of the impression he has given Dany (and one which she is very right to doubt). The one occasion on which Daenerys actually uses her forces is something he is extremely unhappy with. He is afraid for Jaime and afraid for what Daenerys’ military superpower status actually means for the Lannisters. For me one of the the most suspicious scenes in the whole season is the scene in Dany’s council room where he proposes the Wight Hunt plan. Remember that at this point in time, Dany does not really believe in the Northern threat (or does not believe in it as a serious threat). This is confirmed by her many times afterwards. She is still focused on Cersei. Even Cersei knows that it would be absurd to expect Dany to offer peace at this juncture because she just won a major victory and is winning the war. Tyrion knows this quite well. He tells Jaime that Daenerys will win this war. But Dany does have very strong growing feelings for Jon. Tyrion realizes this. The only way to possibly stop Daenerys from using her military might to annihilate Cersei and to offer a truce seems to be to manipulate these feelings to his advantage (notice that right before this scene in the council, Varys and Tyrion are discussing what happened to the Tarlys, and that they have to figure out some way to make her listen to them). So he does so. He argues that Cersei believes that the army of the dead is just a myth. So Jon should go an fetch a wight to give her evidence of the contrary. The problem with this is that his own Queen shares Cersei’s viewpoint on this question at this juncture. However, Daenerys wants to give Jon a chance to prove the claim he has been making ever since he showed up on her doorstep. Even Jon knows this (he tells Tormund that he needs to convince both Queens). Tyrion sees that 1) Jon wants to go back to the North and face some dangerous threat in a war; and 2) That Daenerys does not want him going back into such a situation with inadequate military support. He decides to leverage this to get a truce with the Lannisters. He argues that Jon be given a chance to prove this to Cersei (suppressing that Daenerys doesn’t believe it either at this point–something that she doesn’t want to say outright either, however). Daenerys is initially ready to sign off on this. She probably thinks it will keep Jon on Dragonstone (which is clearly where she wants him) and perhaps settle this issue once and for all (he hasn’t volunteered to go himself at this juncture, but Tyrion probably knew that he would, knowing who he was). But once she effectively signs off on it (a militarily bizarre course for her Hand to suggest because it gives her enemies respite for a non-existent threat), it is difficult to reverse course when Jon also volunteers. And so the stupid Wight Hunt plan initiates (even Jon knows its stupid). Dany declares s truce and agrees to meeting Cersei instead of attacking. Then we have what happens in 7x07. We never see the end of the conversation between Tyrion and Cersei. Why would she agree? Tyrion knows her well. It is extremly doubtful that she would agree for some false reason which he wouldn’t see through at once. Cersei has never managed to pull the wool over Tyrion’s eyes so well. And yet he never suggests afterwards that she may be tricking Daenerys. Why not? Since when did Tyrion become so unsuspecting of her? That may be Jaime, but not Tyrion. More telling, however is Cersei telling Jaime that he was “the stupidest Lannister” for not realizing that she was not going to keep her word. Which suggests quite strongly that Tyrion realizes this already (otherwise why wouldn’t he be the stupidest?) So I suspect that the traitor Tyrion theory has much merit. The show has gone out of its way to show Daenerys doing some things that would make Tyrion question his allegiance to her. It would be sad, of course. Tyrion finally found someone who didn’t judge him for his stature and treated him with the respect he never found elsewhere. She clearly cares for him (she actually does care quite deeply for anyone in her inner circle–as the books make clear), hell even apologizes for making a joke that may seem unintentionally offensive to dwarves. And she has seen betrayal quite often. I think the situation is far more complex than that, even though the show has not emphasized it in all cases. But they have indicated that. Daenerys’ no. 1 problem for now (before knowing about the Northern threat) is that Westerosi society is not willing to accept her as a Westerosi. This despite the fact that she has spent her whole lifetime thinking of Westeros as home and was born on Dragonstone. On this Cersei’s propaganda has been excellent. Dany currently has an army of Dothraki, whom all of Westeros (and the world) sees as vicious uncivilized barbarians with no appreciation of anything of any value and whose traditions are abhorrent. She has an army of former Eunuch slaves, EACH ONE of whom is trained by killing a newborn baby plucked from the mother. So vicious barbarians and baby murderers. And she was carried to Westeros by a faction of the Iron Born who have the worst reputation in Westeros as pirates etc. That is what she has. And three dragons. The men she surrounds herself with have little more to improve her image with. Tyrion, a kinslayer (one of the most heinous crimes in Westeros is to kill your own parent) and (popularly) a kingslayer. Jorah Mormont, a former slaver exile who had been condemned to death by the famously honorable Eddard Stark. Theon Greyjoy who is hardly respected by anyone in Westeros and betrayed the people who raised him. Not a single person of honor seems to follow her or align with her. This problem was not faced by the Mad King. He still had people like Arthur Dayne and Barristan Selmy serving him. Dany did have Barristan for a while, but even he is already dead and cannot speak for her. Even the Citadel Maesters (normally a rather skeptical bunch) seem to have the worst expectations of the Dragon Queen. On top of this she has to deal with the fact that the country’s most recent memory of Targaryen rule is not the centuries before her, but that of her own father, the Mad King (on the basis of whose name she is trying to claim the throne). Cersei has used these facts to vilify her quite well. It explains some of the Tarly reluctance to bend the knee to her as well. Tyrion’s initial idea was legitimate (i.e. to use Dornish and Tyrell forces, rather than foreign forces). Westerosi nationalism will not be offended by Westerosi forces and banners. Destroying central cultural landmarks like the Red Keep (which has been the seat of government for centuries) will only solidify this narrative further. The foreign conqueror who destroyed cultural symbols etc. will only unite the country behind Cersei further. In such circumstances, she could try to take the city, but will not be able to hold it for long anyhow. Once the people hate her and her foreign armies, they’ll give her guerrilla insurgencies far worse than the Harpy she faced in Meereen. And she’ll face this not just in one city but all over the continent. Against this, dragons are useless. Her Dothraki and unsullied won’t be safe unless they are camped outside the cities (and who’ll run the cities then?) and so on. So Cersei’s strategy of cutting out her Westerosi allies first and foremost was actually quite clever. She has managed to exclude Dany from the narrative as being another Westerosi power player and turned her into a foreigner who will destroy the Westerosi way of life and hence created much nationalist sentiment against her. In modern terms, Westerosi people are seeing her as someone who is trying to create regime change on the basis of her superior but completely foreign forces. As we know from modern examples, once this sort of perception sets in, people will often even unite behind terrible leaders to fend off the foreign threat first. Seeing this, Cersei’s demand that Jon stay away from the fight makes excellent sense as well, since if the North allies with her, Daenerys can get some much needed Westerosi credibility. When it comes to these complications, I’m not sure Dany understands the situation too well. Back in Meereen when Tyrion first met her, her perception was quite simple. She thought that having large armies and dragons would win her the throne. Tyrion pointed out the error of the view to her even then. It is worth noting that the Targaryens were only able to conquer six of the seven kingdoms (the North capitulated without a fight to avoid any casualties) and were never able to conquer Dorne even with Aegon the conqueror’s large dragons because the Dornish used the same guerrilla tactics and abandoned castles etc. whenever dragon attack seemed imminent. They tried a direct land invasion under King Daeron 1 Targaryen. Daeron lost 10,000 men conquering Dorne and then lost 50,000 more trying to hold it after massive uprisings that eventually threw Targaryens out of Dorne. Dorne actually has lesser numbers than the other kingdoms. In terms of numbers the Reach may have the most. In terms of area the North is as big as the other six combined. Dorne was only finally brought into the Targaryen fold via marriage. This was probably what Tywin was talking to Oberyn about in an early season 4 episode about how Dorne managed to avoid the Targaryen fold for 200 years. I’m not sure Dany has full appreciation of these complexities as Tyrion undoubtedly should (his book version knows it all beyond a doubt as he is quite erudite in terms of history). The show has also done a bad job of showing what Dany actually holds for now. She doesn’t hold the Crownlands (Cersei does), the Iron Islands (Euron does), the North (Jon does), the Vale (Littlefinger allied to the North did), the Westerlands (even though one castle, Casterly Rock was taken). Does she hold the Riverlands or the Stormlands? There is no clear sign. And she keeps saying that she lost Dorne and Highgarden. Yet she keeps saying that Cersei will retake “half the country” if she goes North. But which “half” of the country does she actually hold? The North is half the country in terms of area and she doesn’t hold it yet. Has she regained control of the Reach? Samwell was at the Citadel which is in the main city of the Reach an the Maesters certainly didn’t speak like Dany was Queen there. In practical terms it still seems like Cersei holds the entire country other than the North &Vale and the island of Dragonstone. So under these conditions, I do not feel Tyrion’s plans have been bad. Dany’s greatest advantage is in open field battles (like the loot train) where her forces and dragons can be used with full effectiveness while causing little resentment among the population at large. Maybe the alliance with the North and possible marriage with Jon with help her with some of these problems.
  12. Hajk1984

    Can we talk about Jon?

    Well Jon needs Daenerys to commit. He does not have the resources to put up a competent defense. That's been his whole arc this season. Daenerys is extremely reluctant to commit unless Cersei can be made to stand down while she's up in the North. At this juncture they know the NK is close but they don't know how soon he'll manage to breach the wall. The Ice Viserion was unexpected and probably accelerated things more than Jon expected. Anyhow, Jon was not conscious at Eastwatch and Daenerys only had 2 dragons there. Formidable, but vulnerable.
  13. Yes I think this is true as well. After all the diary only proves that Rhaegar and Lyanna married. It doesn't prove that Jon resulted from that union. The second fact is known only through Bran's visions. This means that unless the whole world starts believing the 3-ER Jon would be in the same situation as fake "Aegon" in the books, i.e. only Daenerys acknowledging him would legitimize his claim in the eyes of people.
  14. I think it's up to him how far he sees something. He had seen Jon's birth scene before but only saw the "Aegon" bit when prompted by Sam to take a second look. I think he does feel but not in the same way as we ordinarily do. He does say that he is "sorry" that bad things happened to Sansa.
  15. Ned was hardly the only one. Jon Arryn presumably had the same view. And Stannis was not too far off. Of course in the end it is irrelevant whether Tyrion accepts something as proof. What matters is whether Daenerys will accept it as proof. And we do not know what force Bran's words will have. If he can convince everyone of his miraculous knowledge (which should not be an issue). I suppose I am more optimistic about this. I don't think that what is being built by the show etc. as THE central love story of the entire saga will eventually devolve into another dynastic power struggle/ game of thrones etc., essentially justifying the worldview of characters like Cersei ans Tywin as the truth with respect to all issues. We have no knowledge of how official this diary was. The citadel had it. If they can verify its authenticity (presumably they'd know) then I don't see why it isn't evidence.
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