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Alexis-something-Rose

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  1. Which is something that has been done as recently as 74 years ago with Raymun Redbeard's invasion. Every time the wildlings rally under one king, they become a threat, and one of the first things that we learn in Catelyn's very first chapter in the story is that there is a new King-Beyond-the-Wall. Mance is mentioned like a page or two pages in, with Ned telling Catelyn that he might have to call the banners and ride north to put an end to him. The NW has dwindled to a few men, so I think that ranging becomes even more important because the intel becomes even more valuable. Mance Rayder's strategy was to send men south of the Wall, kill the garrison at Castle Black and have the gates opened to I don't know how many wildlings. And that invasion would have been completely successful had Qhorin Halfhand not had Jon join the wildlings. If it hadn't been for those teams being dispatched to collect information, then they would have been caught with their pants down at Castle Black. I think that the bigger issue with the rangings is that the NW is not bringing back news of the Others because they're getting attacked and killed by them or the wights. Waymar was killed by the Others and Will by Waymar and we have no clue what Gared told Ned. Benjen's party seems to have been attacked by wights or the Others. The Great Ranging is attacked by wights. And for some reason, the wildlings that are captured aren't even giving up this bit of information that the Others have returned. Like WTF, guys!
  2. It's very possible that the letter was tempered with. Opened, read and resealed. The only description of the letter that we get is its seal and leaves out everything else, like the spiky hand for instance. So what's inside the letter is written in a hand that Jon recognized, leaving the seal to be the thing that's been off. Maybe Clydas was afraid of his own brothers. Maybe they bullied him into doing something he didn't want to do.
  3. I think people are getting the wrong impression about this as well. The speculation omits a bunch of things, like Hoster Tully being the ambitious one in the group, or that Jon Arryn didn't call his banners until Ned and Robert's lives were threatened, or as you said that House Arryn had ties to the Targaryens and fairly recent ones at that, with a possibly Daenaera who was married to Aerion. It's possible that Alys Arryn was his brother's sister. The speculation doesn't take into account those Blackwood marriages, or that Edwyle Stark was a half-Blackwood lord at the same time Bloodraven came to the Wall. And I think that whatever was going on with Rickard and the marriage alliances begins here. I think it had more to do with the supernatural than it did with ambition. I wrote something about it here.
  4. The people who are likely about to be added to the small council in TWoW. Maester Gormon might be sent to KL to take Pycelle's place. And there's Garth the Gross and his two bastard sons. There's Gyles Rosby's unnamed ward. Leyton Hightower and all those children who have been mentioned on page but that we've never seen. Malora, Baelor, Garth, Humfrey, Gunthor, Lynesse. I think them, minus Lynesse, as well as the Tyrell boys will be seen through Sam's POV. There's also Damphair, but I really don't want to see them in his POV because it means that they might have been captured by Euron and the thought that he will torture them makes me sick to my stomach. The Daynes, through Areo Hotah's POV. I'm pretty sure we'll finally see Starfall. Wylla was mentioned upthread. Allyria, so that we can finally figure out if she's really Ashara's sister or daughter. I think we will be meeting Howland sooner rather than later. I think we'll see him at the Wall, though. Howland is a character who is a bit WTF to me with regard to his children. There's other characters with no backstories that keep coming up in the Appendix of the books that I think we will be meeting, like Maester Jurne at Storm's End, or the Frey children who live near our POV characters.
  5. I think it will be a collective effort to end the Long Night, but that people have to rally essentially under one banner to be able to achieve that. I'm writing something about the Long Night right now, and it doesn't seem like anyone has been able to achieve anything on their own. The last hero needed the children of the forest and created the NW. Azor Ahai needed Nissa Nissa. The hero mentioned in the Rhonyar legend had to make peace between the various fighting factions before they could join him in a secret song that ended the LN. And the Targaryens have this thing about the dragon having three heads, which seems to be the PtwP and two companions. This is sort of the exciting part of the story for me, to see how these various legends I'm pretty sure Jon will have a hard time imagining himself as a Targ as well. And I am so looking forward to this! I doubt Jon will get over his parentage as quickly as snapping our fingers together. I think dragonsteel might be straight up referring to Dawn/Lightbringer. If we go with the current speculation that the dragons that poured forth from the cracked moon in the Qartheen legend is about some kind of a meteor shower, then a sword that's forged from one of those meteors would be dragonsteel, no? Although I'm pretty sure that Valyrian steel will be beyond useful against the Others. Since Valyrian steel was Jon and Sam's first thought when it came to dragonsteel, then I'm not sure that it's the answer our valiant heroes are looking for. There are a couple of interesting things in the prologue of AGoT. First, there's Waymar Royce's appearance, with his grey eyes and his slender build and the remark on his gracefulness, and who seems to be 100% Jon Snow stand-in. The second thing is the Other examining Waymar's sword before he engages him in battle. The other halted. Will saw its eyes; blue, deeper and bluer than any human eyes, a blue that burned like ice. They fixed on the longsword trembling on high, watched the moonlight running cold along the metal. This description is chef's kiss, especially when reading the description of the Other's sword and the passage about Lightbringer in the Jade Compedium.
  6. It is completely weird. The more I look at the history of the other Valyrian swords the more I realize that Longclaw's history is a blank slate so far. The thing is, while House Mormont is essentially a House of women at this point in their history, that won't be so forever. Maege had five daughters. Dacey died childless as far as we know, but Aly has two children and one of them is a boy to whom the sword could be passed down. And the other three girls will eventually have children of their own. So the sword could still be passed down as it has for 500 years. Instead this precious item, this valuable piece and family heirloom gets sent to the NW where it just sits there until the two wights attack Castle Black, then Jeor gifts it to a 15 year old kid who has sworn that he will never take a wife or father children. It could be argued that this would make Longclaw a Night's Watch sword and can start being passed down from LC to LC in some new tradition. In any case, the Mormonts either took Longclaw off the dead body of an ironborn who was part of a raid on Bear Island, so essentially paying the iron price for it (which I think was mentioned somewhere upthread), or it never belonged to them, as you have stated. The more things go (or don't go since we're still waiting on the next book), the more I'm aligning with those who think that Longclaw and Blackfyre are one and the same.
  7. What's interesting about House Peake and them possibly having retained Orphan-Maker is that Titus Peake is married to a Lannister, Margot. It could be completely meaningless, but I always found the match interesting. But Tywin got two Valyrian swords for the price of one because he's grasping. If he had been the one who arrived at the ToJ, he would have stolen Dawn, renamed it Daybreak or Sunrise and claimed it was forged from the bowels of Casterly Rock.
  8. Longclaw is a sword that Tywin might have tried to purchase. If Jorah carried it into battle during the Greyjoy Rebellion, then Tywin might have tried to purchase it at Lannisport during the tourney.
  9. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Doran wants vengeance for his family, but he wants other people to give it to him. In this case, he is looking to Dany and her dragons. Her father plucked up a cyvasse piece. "I must know how you learned that Quentyn was abroad. Your brother went with Cletus Yronwood, Maester Kedry, and three of Lord Yronwood's best young knights on a long and perilous voyage, with an uncertain welcome at its end. He has gone to bring us back our heart's desire." She narrowed her eyes. "What is our heart's desire?" "Vengeance." His voice was soft, as if he were afraid that someone might be listening. "Justice." Prince Doran pressed the onyx dragon into her palm with his swollen, gouty fingers, and whispered, "Fire and blood." Even the men he sends along with Quentyn aren't even Doran's men. They are Yronwood's son and three of his knights. And now he sent his headstrong nieces out. I doubt Obara and Hotah will end well. Nymeria wanted to kill Myrcella and Tommen. Nym, especially might meet a really gruesome end at the hands of Robert Strong. Tyene, who knows who she'll poison. And Elia is already a headache for Arianne. When he tells Arianne that he has been preparing Tywin's downfall since news of Elia and her children's murders reached him, it has been seventeen years. What are all these preparations for Tywin's downfall? Marrying Viserys off to Arianne once he got his army? It's possible that we don't have all the information on what Doran was up to, but what we have right now doesn't really add up.
  10. Dany was meaningless to Doran's plans until the news of her hatching herself three dragons came to Dorne. Even she understands why Quentyn is in Meereen, for fire and blood. Doran couldn't have fostered Dany and Vis in Dorne without bringing Robert down on his head. Doran's main objective is protecting his people and not entering a war he doesn't need to enter.
  11. So about this. I've been thinking that with the two wars that Jorah participated in, that he probably would have carried Longclaw in battle. At the Redgrass Field, we have the mentions of Blackfyre, Dark Sister and Lady Forlorn. At the Battle of Ashford, Randyll Tarly had Heartsbane. At the Battle of the Trident, Lady Forlon was present. Jorah Mormont was there too, but no mention of Longclaw. It is implied in the text that Jeor joined the NW prior to Robert's Rebellion, so the sword would have become his son's at that point. And the Greyjoy Rebellion. We are told that Thoros of Myr was the first through the breach with his flaming sword, and Jorah was went through that breach right after him, but no mention of Longclaw here either. Those who possess Valyrian swords carry them with them and use them in battle. Randyll Tarly has Heartsbane with him at Maidenpool, sheathed above his shoulder. Lyn Corbray uses Lady Forlorn in his duels. Brienne uses Oathkeeper to fight the Bloody Mummers and later Biter and Rorge. Jon doesn't go anywhere without Longclaw. Harras Harlaw defeats seven foes using Nightfall. Dunstan Drumm has Red Rain at the kingsmoot and at the Shields. Jorah Mormont is never once mentioned in the same sentence as Longclaw. When he tells Dany the story of his flight, he doesn't mention having to leave his family's ancestral sword behind. Jeor doesn't mention that his son wielded the sword in battle. I know we're not in Jorah's head, and thank you for that, George, but Longclaw is wholly absent it is in these very important moments in Westerosi History, in a way the other Valyrian swords are not.
  12. I think the plan would have worked a hell of a lot better. Quentyn can just take his father's seat and be an observer at court. Oberyn would have done better traveling through the Disputed Lands and getting to Meereen. He doesn't have to marry Dany, but he can still propose marriage between her and Quentyn. Although Dany might feel like she's been tricked once she laid eyes on Quentyn since she found him neither enchanted nor enchanting. I find that for someone who thinks his plans through the way Doran does, he sure seems to bumble his way around a lot. It's not like his latest idea of sending the Sand Snakes to different places and different tasks is brighter.
  13. I think it depends how long has passed between Sam's arrival at the Citadel and whatever is about to go down in Oldtown with the ironborn. If 3-4 months have passed, then it gives him enough time to have forged one link or about to pass his exam for the link. Maybe a link in history? 3-4 months also gives Marwyn enough time to reach Meereen after the battles have taken place there.
  14. There's nothing that says that Sam and Sarella won't leave Oldtown together. I mean the ironborn are about to descend on Oldtown. Pretty sure Willas and Garlan Tyrell will be seen through his POV eventually. I also think he'll figure out Sarella's secret and keep it. We know he is rather good at keeping secrets. About the whole Dornish not really being a "woowoo bunch", if I'm interpreting what you are saying correctly, then I would point you to Oberyn allegedly thickening the poison he used on Gregor with sorcery. That's what Qyburn tells Cersei at least. And not for nothing, but the Martells are the blood of the Rhoynar, who have their own tale of the LN. Add this to what Rhaegar told Elia in that vision at the HotU, scramble it really well, and you have something super interesting about his interpretation of the prophecy. I think Sarella will come up as a very important character because of whatever knowledge Oberyn imparted her with. The whole "dragon has three heads" business that she mentions sort of blows my mind every time I read it. The only person she could have heard that from is her father. And the weapon she wields will be a hell of a lot more useful than a spear (Obara), knives (Nym), or poisons (Tyene) when the Long Night falls. One thing of note with Sam is that the ravens and the weirwood on the Isle of Ravens represent the old gods. But the glass candle is about Valyrian sorcery. So we have that whole ice and fire thing at play here too.
  15. Traditionally, I guess, but we don't even know what the family trees of most families look like. House Stark married outside of the north and into fairly powerful Houses. I think the idea that there was an alliance being formed against the Targaryens doesn't hold much water. The realm was at peace and prosperous when Rickard Stark sent Ned to the Eyrie for fostering. Robert was the one who proposed marriage to Lyanna. Jon Arryn didn't lift a finger or tried to rebel against Aerys even after his nephew and heir was murdered. It took threats to Ned and Robert's lives for him to get off his ass and call his banners. And Hoster Tully got himself a marriage alliance in exchange for swords and spears. The idea falls apart, imo, when we start looking at the actions of these so-called allies. It doesn't seem to be the sort of alliance the people in it feel beholden to.
  16. Alliser Thorne deserves high rewards for his dislike of Jon and his general asshatness. That's really what this is about. Should give Storm's End to Bowen Marsh instead, at least he tried to kill Jon. Alliser's bark is worse than his bite and Bowen can be called the Stormy Pomegranate. Storm's End has fallen to Aegon. So I'm thinking he gets first dibs on who he wants to give it to.
  17. I don't think you're hating on him. But I completely disagree that he is a coward. And him calling himself a coward doesn't make it true. In those moments when you think he's going to just curl up and die, he manages to find some courage. He was scared shitless at the Fist. He did that Other in, he confronted Small Paul and the other wights at that village. He confronted his fears of authority figures when he was trying to get Jon elected LC of the NW to get the job done. As Jon said, Sam is a lot braver than he gives himself credit for. But when you've been called craven and coward your whole life, then you end up believing it.
  18. Nothing indicates that they were doing that at all. You can look at that alliance through Hoster Tully's actions. He is the only one whose actions we know for sure. Hoster Tully is basically the Walder Frey of Robert's Rebellion. Walder did not choose sides until Catelyn agreed to his terms, then he threw in with Robb, allowed him to cross. Hoster Tully did not enter the war until he got a marriage out of it for Lysa and likely a confirmation from Ned that he would take Brandon's place and marry Catelyn. I bet that if the loyalists had something to offer him that suited his own ambitions and had come sniffing around him, that he would have thrown in with them instead of the rebellion.
  19. I am so looking forward to see if Sam will be made to negotiate the more magical aspects at the Citadel. There's the weirwood at the Isle of Ravens. And I wonder if he'll be able to see what's going on at the Wall and if he'll start entering people's dreams. If he can, then he should start with Randyll and terrorize the shit out of him. Then he can move on to the Redwyne twins.
  20. Sam has dealt with bullies all his life, the biggest one of them all being his father. Everyone else is chomp change compared to Randyll. But this idea that Sam is actually a coward could not be more wrong, imo. He'll deal just fine with Leo.
  21. This is pretty a pretty neat connection with the names. It reminds me that the current Stark line could be descended from a Mormont female. Alaric Stark's wife was a Mormont.
  22. I'm not sure that's this is true. Rereading the Tyrion sample chapter from ADwD has given me a very different perspective on this.
  23. This. Varys informs on Rhaegar, allegedly, but he never gives Aerys anything that will get him arrested for treason. If Varys is this Blackfyre supporter, then the first step is to get rid of the heir to the throne. Rhaegar was liked and we are told that he was capable. If Rhaegar was plotting to depose his father (by whatever means) and Varys knows this, then why didn't he give up the information he had. More and more, Harrenhal to me seems to have been designed to try and get Aerys out of the Red Keep for everyone present to see. It's a win-win situation for Rhaegar. If Aerys goes, the world sees what his father has become, so when the time comes to remove him, the lords will see the sense in that. If Aerys stays away from the tourney, then he gets to meet as many lords as he can to discuss with them what's going on with Aerys and try and gain their support. I think Varys threw in his lot with Rhaegar sometime before Harrenhal, perhaps as early as when Rhaegar returned to KL to present Rhaenys to court. I've been thinking for a while that Varys's loyalties shifted to Rhaegar and have remained with him, rather than House Targaryen as a whole, and that's why he is doing everything he can to put Aegon on the throne. Varys put his own life on the line when he bent the knee to Robert. He has no idea whether he'll be pardoned or his head will be lopped off because he is more disposable than Jaime, Pycelle and Barristan.
  24. We don't have a canon answer for this. The Empire of the Dawn theory has been mentioned above. I don't think the purple eyes come from the Targaryens because of House Dayne's sigil. I think the three important things about the House are depicted on it. The falling star where Starfall was built according to legend and from which Dawn was forged. The not so ordinary sword. And the background color, lilac, a variant of purple, for the eyes of the people of House Dayne. I will say something about one of Maekar's daughters marrying into House Dayne, though. I noticed something in The Queenmaker chapter about Darkstar's eye color that reminded me a whole lot of Egg's eyes in the Sworn Sword. It could be something or nothing.
  25. The forum forced me to delve in more depth when it came to certain conclusions fandom had come to. Like Rickard's southern ambitions, or Aegon being a Blackfyre for instance. I landed on the other side. Actually, I felt challenged to by some of the posters to know my shit before I post. I still make mistakes, but I think I know my shit pretty well now.
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