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Back door hodor

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Posts posted by Back door hodor

  1. I remember reading on this forum that some believe Darkstar is actually Doran's mole in Arriannes group, and that he is still working for him , and the plan the send Balon Swan to kill him is actually in fact, the other way around, an way to discreetly kill Balon and keep some plausible deniability 

  2. 23 hours ago, Br16 said:

    Great point, also, from  Tyrion's explanation of the 10K well trained Lannister (Casterly rock) army during the Unsullied assault,   and from the fact that Tywin had 12K horse to immediately rush to KL after Trident seems to imply that Tywin had more or less a standing army of 10K men at arms (not levies) parked at his seat. This would be a big deal and probably super expensive in a feudal economy even with gold mines.

    Also, thanks for agreeing with me about the navy. I know that it's not on the practical side (as from a lot of other people's responses), I nevertheless feel that a sea faring tradition (no matter show hard or how pioneering) is something the Lannisters need in the long term to diversify the economy. Wester land farms cannot match the more fertile regions, so they ought to invest in ships when they still have the capital to do so, and find a way to do business with the far east, or do what Arya is doing and go west. If Sea snake Velaryon could be wealthier than the Lannisters when he was alive, then far east trade is something worth doing no matter the risks or losses of getting it set up.

    I personally do not think pursuing naval strength would be impractical...the Lannisters already control one of the major ports in Westeros, and the only one on the entire western coast, thier seat of power is on or very near the coast and they count at least one fairly large island( Fair Isle) and several other settlements on or near the western coast among thier kingdom(for lack of a better term).

  3. As to your third point, a slight advantage in equipment I would say is both a bigger advantage and much more expensive than you realize, in the real world, most medieval conscripts brought thier own equipment to war, the cost of equipping Lannister men even with the most basic gear should not be underplayed.

    I agree with some of your other points though, especially the Navy.

  4. On 5/3/2019 at 1:29 PM, Seams said:

    Illyrio's tone here is an important clue. I think he knows (or suspects) that this Young Griff / Aegon is fated to die young. Maybe the death of Aegon / Young Griff is even part of a plan Illyrio has hatched - we know that only death can pay for life and, so far, Viserys, Drogo and Rhaego died to move Dany's cyvasse piece closer to the throne. Maybe the plan is to sacrifice Young Griff for the next step in Dany's journey. Or to allow Tyrion to advance in the game. (Doesn't Tyrion like to open a game of cyvasse by sending a dragon flying toward his opponent? Is fAegon his "dragon" cyvasse piece, sent toward Westeros?)

    Ginger. Keep in mind that Hansel and Gretl were attracted to the witch's gingerbread house before they were put in a cage and fattened up for her singer stew gingerbread cookies. Kind of sinister, that candied ginger.

    Because of the consistent description of baby Aegon's head being dashed against a wall by Gregor Clegane, I have always suspected a Humpty Dumpty ending (a nursery rhyme in English speaking countries) is in store for this fAegon. Whether it will come at The Wall in the north or at a smaller wall, I suspect that all the king's horses and all the king's men won't be able to put him together again. It is known.

    Ghoyan Drohe is another weird hint. It is a ruined place, destroyed by dragon fire like some of the other key landmarks in ASOIAF history. I can believe that Illyrio and Griff chose it for this rendezvous because it is deserted and they didn't want a lot of people to see them together, or to see the fugitive Tyrion. But it is also a dead place, and that is always where rebirth starts in ASOIAF. I suspect the name of the place is an anagram: Ghoyan Drohe = Dragon Hey Ho. This does not necessarily spell doom for Young Griff in and of itself. I do think it spells a beginning of Tyrion's journey to fulfilling the Targ side of his heritage, which might necessitate a death paying for his new life.

    (As I'm writing, I'm also pondering the "grey hand oho" possibility in the name Ghoyan Drohe. Is Illyrio a variation on the Coldhands archetype in this excerpt? Coldhands is able to meet people at a door and guide them to the next door, but he can't go through those doors. Coldhands also met Bran and his companions at a dead place: the Night Fort and Black Gate. Illyrio meets Tyrion when he emerges from his wine cask hiding place and delivers him to Ghoyan Drohe, but apparently goes no further. The name holds other possibilities as well - I think ambiguity may be a hallmark of GRRM's wordplay.)

    Gifts and feasts are often fraught with peril in ASOIAF. Here we have Illyrio bearing gifts and offering to share a feast. Uh oh.

    We know that Illyrio gave Dany three dragon eggs in a chest, along with some lovely silk fabric, as wedding gifts. We soon learn that the six chests he has given this group contain fabric (clothing) and . . . ginger? armor? silver coins?

    As others have already wondered, where are the eggs? I suspect armor is linked to eggs because it is a type of shell. Basically, Illyrio is giving this group egg shells, but not the inner yolk and albumen necessary to hatch a living dragon. He doesn't even provide the gold coins known as dragons - the coins in the chests are specifically described as being silver.

    I know that few people share the depth and breadth of my wordplay obsession, but I am intrigued by the "egg" anagram possibilities in the ginger phrase: "some candied ginger." It's another phrase with so many anagram possibilities that it's difficult to pin down any specific clue. Taken together with Illyrio's "oddly sad" tone, I think there is a strong possibility that the coded hint in "some candied ginger" might have to do with "dead egg" or "Aegon receding" or some other sad fate. (I am open to other suggestions, though - gems? diamonds? ice dragon? grace? It's fun to play with the anagram generator, if anyone else cares to experiment with other possibilities.)

    For those not open to anagram hints, of course, "ginger" is also a nickname for a person with red hair. We know that Jon Snow had a memorable encounter with a red haired woman who was "kissed by fire" and then moved on to encounter Melisandre who seems to do a lot with red and with fire kisses. Catelyn has auburn (reddish brown) hair of which, we are told, Ned is very fond. She is kissed by fire when Beric Dondarrion passes along his fire kiss and brings her back to life. Tyrion is married to Sansa who also has auburn hair. So Illyrio commenting on fAegon's supposed fondness for candied ginger could be thrown in for the sake of symbolism: fAegon needed some "ginger" in his arc as he makes a journey comparable to the journeys of other Iron Throne aspirants in his generation.

    On the positive side, perhaps, ginger is also a root. We know through Davos that roots in the form of onions can represent life. Bran sends a dish of root vegetables to Little and Big Walder at the harvest feast at Winterfell but that is because he doesn't like them. Turnips (also known as neeps) may symbolize an entrance to the Otherworld (Pennytree = neep entry). Maybe Illyrio is providing ginger so fAegon can enter the Otherworld. What will happen there, we do not know.

    More potential symbolism: "oaken chests with iron hasps." If you are a Dunk and Egg fan, as I am, you will remember the "shield rhyme" that is like Dunk's prayer: "Oak and iron, guard me well or else I'm dead and doomed to hell." Ser Robyn Rhysling, of House Rhysling, is part of Dunk's team in the Trial of Seven. House Rhysling members blazon their arms with an oaken door banded with iron, in a grey stone doorway, on black masonry. I apologize if I'm belaboring this point made elsewhere, but I think the oak and iron combination is indicative of a strong shield; shields are symbolic doors; and only certain people can open doors. (Just recently, in another thread, I've been pondering Victarion and Jon Snow as door-openers with Victarion attacking the Shield Islands and Jon Snow reopening the Shield Hall.) The six oak and iron chests may represent the opening of six doors - Illyrio couldn't open them, but someone in Jon Connington's group (or the combination of people) can do it. Similarly, Dany is able to hatch the eggs that no one else could hatch and she seems to be uniquely qualified to open the doors in the House of the Undying. There is probably Pandora's Box symbolism at work here, though: what evils are unloosed when each chest or door is opened?

    I like this a lot,( especially the stuff in the first paragraph) every thread I see about (f)aegon assumes he is Varys and Ilyrios endgame, would be interesting if it were actually the other way around.

  5. So I do not think that the Skagosi would be as poorly equipped and everyone else.

    I don't see them having castle forged steel and plate mail obviously, but iron weapons, chainmail, leather and furs seem likely. 

    Thier isolation is fairly recent and imposed by the Starks, they would have been traders or Sea raiders before that,(they definitely raided Skane), so even if they cant make thses things themselves they can get them.


  6. On 5/27/2019 at 2:18 PM, El Diego said:

    He seems like someone who has a conclusion in mind and then finds post-hoc explanations to confirm it.

    Anyway, I'm not that interested in debating this topic either (at least, not here). I was hoping to get other view points on Bloodraven's magical ability/knowledge during his mortal span. 

    He could have skinchanged without training, Arya goes into that cat and Varmyr into the family dog, neither have had formal training when they did this. 

    So yes I think BR figured out how to skinchange on his own, and that he did sp frequently 

  7. On 5/18/2019 at 2:29 PM, Floki of the Ironborn said:

    What you said about there being a second war with the Lannisters is certainly true. Tywin wouldn't stand for his son getting sent to the Wall. That means a war with the Westerlands and possibly the Reach since there'd be two Targaryens still out there. This means the rebels probably lose, even with four different regions of Westeros fighting the might of the Reach and Westerlands. One factor that might save the rebels from defeat would be getting Dorne to join the alliance on the basis of Tywin having murdered Elia and her kids. Another would be the scenario at King's Landing. Assuming that Tywin and his men have ransacked the place by the time the rebels arrive, and the royal family residing there has been butchered, there's a chance of besieging the lannisters within the burning city. As a result, Tywin and the leadership of the west is trapped inside a ruined city. Tyrion would be a squalling babe and a dwarf, so if his father and brother and uncles (presumably) are dead in the fighting, that means Mace Tyrell probably dips his banners without a fight still. Cersei becomes a hostage to ensure the Westerlands' compliance, Jon Arryn still becomes Hand of the King, Robert marries a Florent instead of Stannis, and the realm benefits overall. 

    Yep...the rebs opposing the Lannisters would def drive Tywin to Viserys and Dani, with possible dornish and reach support, could get messy

  8. 1 hour ago, Bonkers said:

    The only reason there was a double wedding was because the rebellion had kicked off and Hoster (Being the shroud negotiator he was)  demanded it for the use of Riverlands forces in the war.  Jon Arryn was old and without child, Lysa was known to be fertile from her Littlefinger miscarriage.   He forced Ned into marrying Cat (they negotiated and Cat thought it was 'custom' for a second son to marry a elders betrothed), when Ned didn't seem to want to or there wouldn't have been a delay.  Also, Blackfish seemed to object to it, as he publicly denounced fighting for house Tully at the wedding feast and swore to house Arryn. 

    Lyanna was never betrothed to Edmure because Rickard's Southron Ambitions were not about one region, but for the whole south.  Hence why Ned was probably betrothed to Ashara of house Dayne, and actually fell in love with her, and no one else fell in love with their betrothals, like Robert and Lyanna, Brandon and Cat... Benjin was too young to be betrothed at the start of the war. 

    Oh yea i get it, I was simply saying I get the point of view that the alliances seem a bit contrived, and I agree that something probably happened with Ned and Ashara, maybe not an official bethothal, but the other Dornish ladies we have meet are not bothered by such things, so it's no great a stretch to say Ashara wouldn't be either, but yes there is something there. I think something is up with Edmure as well, perhaps another alliance that feel through?

  9. On 5/18/2019 at 7:26 AM, SFDanny said:

    I think the really odd part here is who is betrothed to Brandon and Lyanna. By far and away the normal expected marriage for the two would be to married about the age they are during the rebellion, but to some vassal house of the north. This is the type of marriage we would expect for all the Stark children. Such marriages tie these houses tighter to the High Lords own family and secure the future. The incredibly odd thing is that the heir to Winterfell and his sister are betrothed to other High Lord's houses for which there can be no oaths of fealty. Perhaps, there is some dowry that explains this, but if so we don't know of it. 

    In Ned's case, he isn't so old for it to be odd that he isn't betrothed yet, far from it, but when he is wed, we would expect him to wed someone along the lines of Barbrey Ryswell or her sister.

    If, however, we accept the marriages as the foundation of a new anti-Targaryen political bloc then not only do the Brandon/Catelyn and the Robert/Lyanna betrothals make sense, but we then have some very clear candidates for a possible Ned betrothal that would follow along the same lines. Cersei jumps out as a likely match for Ned, and wouldn't that be ironic. Personally, I think Elbert Arryn is the most logical match for Cersei, but Ned is in the running. 


    This is interesting, and you are right to a degree I think, the bethothals don't make much sense except for plot convenience, to set the sides for Robert's Rebellion. For example I think a double marriage between Stark and Tully makes more sense, if Rickards intent was to bring the riverlands under his rule,(which is not certain), meaning Brandon and Cat and Edumure And Lyanna, so this way the next generation of both houses would be tied(the way Daeron the good brought Dorne into the realm btw).

    However even those factions are loosely defined and in flux, not to mention the fact that thier may or may not be a third faction, led by Tywin and Reagar, that is also possibly working to build political power to oppose Aerys.

    It all gets real messy and to me the only thing certain is that there are several pieces of very important information still missing.

    As for Ben specifically, he does not seem resentful or bitter with his lot in life(the watch), in fact, he seems content if not happy in the limited interaction that Jon has with him. So right now, I would say he definitely went there of his own free will, like Jon, I am not sure exactly why though.

  10. I'd say yes, the fact that house Velayron is depicted as much more powerful and influential in the world book and FaB, than in the main series, in which they are barely mentioned, suggests such a recent setback is not only possible, but likely 

    They go from a family that can challenge the free cities for supremacy in the narrow sea without official support of the IT, to simply one of Stannis' barely significant bannermen, a very big change.

  11. On 4/18/2019 at 2:06 PM, halfmanhalfwolf said:

    Hello friends,

    Wrapping up another re-read, and something has been bothering me. Apologies if this has already been discussed.

    • So, Belwas eats all of the locusts. Becomes deathly ill, but survives, reportedly, due to his great size.
    • Dany puts Belwas' weight at 20 stone, or about 280 lbs, and estimates that he is roughly three times her size.
    • So, theoretically, even if Dany ate 1/3 of the bowl of locusts (unlikely), she could have survived.

    Why would an assassin use such a weak poison? Perhaps the intent was never to kill her, but just to make her sick and indisposed for a time, a la Tyrion giving Cersei the shits for a few days so he could wheel and deal unopposed. Perhaps Belwas simply has a rare honey allergy? Can cause nausea and vomiting.


    Honestly my main thoughts from this is the mathematical conversion in the first half of your post...

    If 20 stone=280 pounds that mean that...

    At 40 stone, The mountain weighs in at 560 pounds...

    Holy fuck

  12. On 4/15/2019 at 3:59 AM, SiSt said:

    Easy. As Roose isn't entirely human, it has to be Tywin. B)

    I think Tywin anyway. 

    Nailed it

    Haha for real though, both are terrible, but no worse or better than Jon Arryn or Hoster Tully, a couple of "good guy" patriarchs, so it's all relative I think 

    Edit: actually, of the four I mentioned, by modern standards, Tully is far and away the worst, the other 3 were ruthless to thier enemies, Hoster forcibly aborted his own grandchild to save face.

  13. I admit I could be very wrong about this, but my feeling is that if Theon was going to die he would have already done so, at this point, living and facing those he has wronged is a greater punishment for him than dieing.

    No Godless man may sit the seastone chair.....

    The name Theon literally translates to of God or godly...so yea.. theon is in it for the long haul 

  14. The timelines in the world book are definitely suspect. The Andals claim they learned iron working from the Smith himself, most likely both they and the Valyrians learned from the Rhoynar. The world book dates the the destruction of the Rhoynar and Nymerias exile at between 700 to 1000 years ago.  Most likely the Andal date of colonization is closer to this timeframe than the 4000, tbh 2k even seems high given this context. The Andals themselves claim the Seven themselves lead them to Westeros for no reason other than it was thier "promised land" and make no mention of fleeing from dragon fire. The Rhoynar exodus and wars are much better documented. 

    I believe all the free cities save Bravos where founded by Valyria, meaning there may have been much smaller settlements where Pentos and Lorath are now, and only grew to thier size and influence with Valyrian influence and support.

    I regards to Bravos, to support a Navy and city that size, they simply must control some part on mainland essos for resources, everything cant be brought in by trade.

    It is never mentioned but I would definitely assume that any andals left in essos after the Doom, either were absorbed by one of the growing free cities(and due to Geographic convenience, pentos makes the most sense) or wiped out by the dothraki, there is simply no where else they could go.

  15. 7 hours ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

    Suppose for a moment that post Winter/Long Night, Westeros somehow manages to become a fledgling democracy.

    Considering the demographics of the continent which system of democracy would best suit a Republic of Westeros?

    Would the benefits of an electoral system balance out the population centers of KL and Oldtown with the relatively sparsely populated North?

    Or would a parliamentary system work better?

    Ideas thoughts? 

    Better alternatives?

    Ridiculous I know, but fun nonetheless. 

    The most likely scenario I think is some sort of constitutional monarchy in which the lords do not give up all thier power, but do make concessions. Like the house of commons and the house of Lords in the British parliament or something like that

  16. On 3/23/2019 at 1:00 AM, Falcon2909 said:

    What if Leaf was lying? (you know, cus its Jojen Paste)


    Yes that's right. I feel its one huge supra-organism that spans Westeros. The Weirwoodnet heh

    There is real world precedent for this, there is an entire forest in the American southwest that is a single organism connected at the root system, no individual tree is over 300 years old, and are all genetic clones, but the organism itself estimated to have been alive at least 80,000 years.

    Edit. Many grasses and herbs grow in this manner but are not nearly as old.

    Also, I don't know the scientific name of the tree but they are colloquially called pando clones, and I read a very interesting article in National Geographic about them. The pando forest is located in south central Utah and takes up approximately 106 acres of land above ground, it theoretically could spread out further underground, in addition to being one of the oldest know living organism, it is also the one of heaviest at an estimated 6 million kgs

  17. On 3/24/2019 at 10:52 PM, Great Oshiro said:

    Coldhands is a skinchanger.  That's why he was able to keep his mind even after getting wighted.  Elk is not usually an animal that can be ridden unless it's Santa Claus.  He controlled that animal.  He was a ranger who had the ability.  He got killed near the white walkers.  They did a mass wightification like the Reverend Moon used to do mass weddings.  Coldhands kept his soul because he was warged into an animal. 

    That is definitely one of the better guesses I've seen

  18. So if I understand you correctly you are having a hard time with the the ghosts vision recommending or condoning inscest?

    I don't think that this, or any or her dreams, reccomend or condone any course of action. They simply say what will be, they don't say do x and y will happen, they just say x will happen.

    The ones you quoted anyway, and sadly we have no direct quote from the ghost to Jahearys to confirm this but my guess is it follows the same pattern. It is a wildcard because it is a prophecy about another(most likely misinterpreted) prophecy.

    The Ghost herself has an almost unbelievable success rate with the dreams she tells the BWB. So in my opinion she is likely right and everyone around her was interpreting things incorrectly or perhaps incompletely. Aemon seems to come to a similar conclusion on his deathbed, but there is every possibility he( and I)could be very wrong.