YeniAy_Ottoman

I wish Martin had been more specific about army numbers.

Hello, Selam! I wanted to discuss an idea that has been on my mind for a while. The topic is two-part. The First Part: Military Strength We do not know the full number of military might of kingdoms in Westeros. Although there are vague and semi-official statements about this, it is not easy to talk about exact numbers in general. We only know that Reach has around 100k soldiers(Frankly, this seems a bit exaggerated.). For this reason, the military power of other kingdoms has always been controversial. If there is one thing we can at least be sure of, it is that those who took part in the war must have been somewhat weakened militarily. The north is what I'm going to argue. (on the ASOIAF Wiki)According to semi-official sources, the north has 45k armies. The aforementioned source is; A Game of Thrones: d20-based Open Gaming RPG. The reliability of this source is of course questionable, but assuming at least 20,000 soldiers were destroyed, there are still at least 20-25 thousand soldiers in the north. Combined with the other advantages of geography, the north can easily defend and even win on its territory. It'll still need more soldiers if the northeren/Jon has to fight far away homeland. Or when the Others come, they'll need soldiers. Other than Wildings, where can the north find this soldier? This is where my idea comes into play. We have a prospective king who needs soldiers to fight for the throne; stannis. For this he had to borrow money from Braavos. We know that in one of the chapters in the 6th book published, Stannis sent one of his knights to Braavos. The knight's job is to take the gold and hire soldiers and buy ships for Stannis. Most importantly, Stannis said, Stannis is probably plotting his own fake death, one of the arguments used for the pink letter, but that's not the point. Stannis will indeed die at the end of the day. Yes, other readers have other ideas on this subject, but I am one of those who think that Stannis' role in book 6 is over. These 20,000 soldiers and ships won't be able to come to help Stannis in time. But still those ships and soldiers will come. That way, Jon will have at least 20,000 soldiers in preparation for war. These soldiers can even be used by Jon in the Battle of Winterfell, the final battle in the north. I actually found this somewhat ironic. It is highly likely that we owe it to Arya for Braavos' decision to support Stannis. Stannis plans to bring 20,000 troops north and orders those soldiers to be sent no matter what, even if word of his death is heard! Then when these soldiers arrive, it will benefit the north/Jon. So Arya appears to have done Stannis a favor on the surface—even though that was not her purpose—but she actually helped raise the military power her family would need in the future. My smart girl. The Second Part: The Origins of Sellswords Looking at the battle of Meereen, the masters seem to have gathered almost all the sellsword companies. Honestly I wonder how many companies there are in Essos, it seems quite a lot. Anyway. Another small detail about the soldiers Stannis wants is the choice of the reputable ones. So we don't expect the knight to assemble every company he finds at random and send them north. We don't know about every company in Essos, nor do we know the names of each, but we expect them to total 20,000 men. Two small details added in other books caught my attention, and I thought if it would be possible to see what is mentioned here in the main books. It is possible to talk about two companies belonging to the northerners. The book The World of Ice and Fire mentions a northern sellword unit called the Company of the Rose. I think there is no doubt that the rose mentioned here is the Winter Rose. It has different names as Winterfell Rose, Blue Rose, Snow Rose. Another is Wolf Pack. These are mentioned in both the World book and the Fire and Blood book. So far, we haven't read or seen any mention of these two companies. Of course, these may just be details added to enrich the universe, but it may not be. If Stannis wants sellswords and companies are to be hired for them, the existence of these two among the futures would not be an impossible thought. Will the children of the north finally return to their homes? I find the names of companies especially meaningful. In these books there are two characters represented by the blue rose; Lyanna and her son Jon Snow. In addition, the wolf pack is a perception and understanding of the Starks. In other words, the names of these two companies have a direct connection with Jon in particular and the Stark family in general. Thanks for read.

Bran ate Jojen. I don't think there is any reason to think that something like this happened because we don't see Jojen for a page or two and the boy is scared, but there are people who believe and say this for years.

Arya. Leaving aside Martin's statement about his wife, a few years ago someone whose name I forget said that Martin wanted to write a short novel about adult Arya. So Martin let it slip. Martin had said long ago that he wanted to write a short novel about Arya, but he had not said anything about her age. So it looks like the only character we're sure won't die is Arya Stark.

In the official phone application of ASOIAF, it was written that this woman was called "priestess", I watched it in a video years ago. I think the prisoner was an Andal prisoner. So this must be an image of the Andal period invasion. This Stark could be Theon the Hungry Wolf, the Andals were coming during his time. Blood sacrifice still existed in the north at that time. The fact that the sickle is bronze indicates the prevalence of bronze before steel at that time. The detail of the priestess is interesting because in the northern faith there is no clergy, there are forest witches. Maybe what the priestess means is that this woman is a forest witch.

Now I understand, it's true. There is an eastern and western market there and it is always active. As you said, we have not seen any information that any of these commercial routes were disrupted due to difficult winter/snow weather conditions.

@House Cambodia @SeanF Friends, I asked a very simple question. Is it snowing in the Dothark Sea? No. How can you claim that the coldness of a place where it does not snow is the same as the coldness of a region covered with snow almost every month of the year, or that it is similar to the difference between Ukraine and Russia? Also, Ukraine and Russia are in the same place in terms of geographically, I cannot understand how you accept this. Dany wandered the Dothraki sea for at least a year, have you ever seen her mention snow? They even passed south of Sarnor, and again she made no mention of the snow. She has seen many parts of Essos, have you ever seen her mention snow? If the Dothraki sea is almost as cold as the north, how can these people walk around with only a vest over their bare chests? Are you going to claim that they are used to this snow-cold and it doesn't affect them? So why have northerners been wearing furs for more than 5000 years, or Wildings? These are simple questions and the answers are very simple. I'm sorry, but the Dothraki are not used to the northern cold as you believe, they do not have a culture accustomed to living in a snowy environment. They are not from the north, there is no seasonal zone where there is snow etc. in parallel with them! The fact that the northernmost part of Sarnor is a city parallel to the North Sea and that this region is part of the Dothraki Sea does not indicate that the Dothraki lived there permanently and had a snow culture. I said that the people living in Saat city are not Dothraks anyway, and Dothraks do not live in cities. The southerners of Westeros are used to seeing snow, but even they have difficulty in the northern geography, they cannot move easily and are badly affected. They live in Essos, which it has a warm-temperate climate; You claim that people walking around with bare chests and vests can easily fight in the north. These are not realistic claims. The army Dany has is of no use to the north, they simply die. Even dragons cannot move freely in this region. Dorne and the North are a challenge to her, a war she cannot win, especially in the north. @Craving Peaches Sorry, I could not understand what you mean.

No, -40 degrees is valid for lands like Siberia. Today, we can talk about figures like -18-20 in Mongolia. Of course, there may be extreme situations(Some nights can be very cold...), for example, historical sources mention that it snows in summer sometimes... These are the reasons why Turks had problems due to famine, this is one of the reasons for our migration. More important thing is... It snows there, but it doesn't snow in the Dothraki sea. You cannot imagine that the Central Asian steppes are described in the books. For example, there are 3 seasonal zones in the Central Asian steppe; One of them is forested, the other is classically inefficient, the other is more productive. Is the Dothark sea like this? No. You shouldn't imagine it that way. Imagine a warmer climate. I think even -18 is too cold for the Dothraki sea because these people walk around with bare chests and a vest.

People can forget that Martin sometimes makes contradictory statements. Or that he chose to speak in a very roundabout way. For example, the statements he made after the show finale were truly confusing. The example he gave seemed to suggest that even if it wasn't the same finale, it would be very similar. I have argued for years that this finale will not be in the books, because when we examine the texts, there is no chance of progress in that direction... A friend of mine accused me of being Pollyanna, I was too optimistic for him. Three years later, Martin finally made it very clear that the show and book finales will be very different: some of the dead characters would live, some of the living characters would die, he said. So, I wasn't too optimistic, I was realistic because everything is clearly visible in the book, if you know how to see it. Back to our topic... There are multiple explanations about outline, but people stuck with the "I did a shit" explanation. In fact, you also read opposite statements in the same text. Nobody wants to see that part. So the "I made a shit" comment was not a very accurate statement. The author announced that he was moving towards the final, which he had been aiming for since the 90s. He said he knew the endings of the big five, Sansa and the great Lannisters, he knew who would sit on the iron throne, who would marry, who would die... he made it very clear that he was proceeding as planned from the very beginning. This is what I was trying to say to Kissing, her interpretation is not correct, such a situation is not the case in the outline. When we review the outline, we see very clearly that the storyline/arc continues to be processed exactly as written in the letter, but there are some changes in the plot. Tyrion was betrayed by his family in every way, Sansa married a Lannister in every way, etc. We cannot get stuck in the plot and think that the storyline/arc has changed. Although Martin accepted some changes, he said that he did not deviate from the story he had thought of from the beginning, but only expanded the story further. This love triangle can take place as Arya-Jon-Gendry.

The fact that a region of the Dothraki Sea borders the northern sea does not mean that they live and get used to that snowy and ice-filled cold. There is no information that that part is snowed anyway. Think of it like the Braavos example. The canals are cold enough to freeze, but there is no snow. I remember the Kingdom of Sarnor as being quite fertile despite its location. There was a large inland sea and fertile water resources. In this way, a great kingdom was established there. As they lost their water supply, they slowly began to weaken and gone. The Dothraki did the rest. Currently, almost all cities are in ruins, only the city of Saath continues to exist. The Dothraki do not live here or in the ruined cities. Most of these cities are already in the inner parts of the region. The Dothraki Sea may possibly resemble the Arabian deserts. Deserts are very hot during the day and cold at night, but... The coldness I'm talking about is not normal coldness. Have they ever experienced the Siberian cold? Have they ever lived in a snow-covered area? No. You forget that the perception of coldness is relative. To a northerner, the cold experienced by the Dothraki is probably something like springtime. I would like to give an example. I live in the south of Türkiye, Antalya is very hot and the humidity is extremely high during the summer months. In autumn and winter, the average temperature is 19-20 degrees. You have no chance of getting a tan(at least for us). The most beautiful periods of the city. On the other hand, there is a small city called Bayburt in the north of Türkiye. The average temperature in the summer is 19-20 degrees. My friend who lives there was complaining that her brother's arms were red from the sun, and that they were sweltering in the heat. What does this warmth mean to me? Nothing. So what happens if I invite this friend to Antalya in the summer? She could probably die from the heat (joke). The human body has the perception of cold and heat depending on the season of the region in which it lives. For this reason, you cannot equate the winter experience of a Dothraki with the winter experience of northerners.

Turks are people of steppe origin, you may know. I'm a Turk. Central Asia is a truly harsh and challenging geography. Even living in cold places like Siberia, and we hate extreme heat. In this way we are similar to the northerners of Westeros. However, the Central Asian steppes and the Dothraki steppes do not have the same seasonal characteristics. This is the point you are missing. The regions of Essos, except the northern part, are regions where warm climates prevail, places where snow and snow cold do not prevail... You can even understand this from their clothes. This region is deadly for these people who are not used to the cold and snow of the north.

If Dorne were to wage war against Dany, that's right... Like their ancestors, they would be a great trouble to Dany. Dorne could only be occupied for a very short period of two weeks, and that too at the cost of huge losses. The people of Dorne cannot be invaded by Dany as long as it defends its own home, because they are waging guerrilla warfare and the geography is too harsh. Reach, Vale, West-Crown Lands and River lands can be occupied, as long as there are dragons, the resources and number of armies of these kingdoms do not matter. The Rock is actually hard to get because it is carved into the mountain and it seems unlikely that it will be burned by a dragon, but I think they will get it with help Tyrion's hand, Meereen style. The thing that will challenge Dany the most after Dorne is the North. Dorne and the North have harsh geography and are seasonally opposites. You can see Yin-Yang here, a very nice detail. Jon is the son of ice and fire... He was born in the hottest part of Westeros and raised in the coldest part. Anyway. The North has never been invaded in its history either, it has been tried but failed, not even the Andals could succeed. The Kneeling Stark King could probably have forced Aegon out if he had decided to fight on his own land instead of fighting on the riverlands. Although I don't remember now, was it winter then? The hardest part for Dany's dragon and her soldiers is the cold and snowy north. It's especially worse now that winter is here. Even the southerners of Westeros cannot move as fast as the northerners there, they are not used to it. Cold, snow, etc. are kryptonite for dragons. They even seem difficult to fly, especially when snowstorms begin. The situation is worse for the eunuchs and Dothraki, these people have never seen snow or cold. They cannot fight there, they freeze to death, their horses die. Of course, if they can get to land, this will happen to them, I don't think they can get in from land easly. Manderly's building of naval power will also make the north's job easier; there will probably be a war at sea before they can move to land. In the past, I remember, the Andals managed to land, but were killed on the shore. In short, Dorne and the North will not surrender to Dany and these lands will turn into a swamp for her, like Iraq and Afghanistan.

I think there's a bit of a misunderstanding. I pointed out there that JonArya theorized after the letter, but as I mentioned at the beginning of the video, even though the theorization was after the letter, the idea actually goes back to 1999. I would like to draw attention to the last part of the passage. "In this video we discuss the signs of JonArya.” Signs for a few sample in the books: Many in-text parts, such as the sentence marrying the king, or the blush the face, or the question "What do you know about my heart?" Of course, there are some parts in the second part of the video that are not directly within the text, in terms of story mathematics/irony, but our main arguments are the signs within the text. Actually, I said that I gave a link about the outline. I guess it wasn't very clear from the beginning. I wrote the sentence you quoted for your first comments about Outline. Then I gave a link about outline analysis.

No, these are your comments/speculations on the outline. However, I am talking about arguments based on the story written in books. We can also discuss about the outline, no problem, but this is a separate thread and I gave a link.

First of all, I'm wondering, you may believe that this theory will not come true, you may even dislike the idea... there can never be a problem with that. But in a forum meant for discussing theories/arguments etc., why, instead of discussing the arguments, do you directly draw a line in the sand like "I don't like it, the outline has been abandoned..." which closes the discussion in the first place? I have seen Jonerys and even sometimes Jonsa being discussed very easily in the forums with arguments, but when JonArya comes up, it is always the same meaningless reactions, you are very tiring in this way. One gets tired of going through the same thing for years. Be reasonable and argue against arguments with counter arguments, please. The video is there, you can listen to it with the subtitles on and write your own counter-arguments here. Please don't reject something before you listen the need to do so, reject it after you have done so. Thank you. I also have a detailed analysis of the outline, you can read it if you have time. There is never, ever a situation like the one you mentioned.