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Pedro Luiz

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  1. I get you and really find this "Tysha memory" from Tyrion very strange. First of all, Tywin seems to be more of a pragmatic guy than a rather cruel one. Yes, intense humiliation could be seen as an effective pragmatic way of giving somebody a lesson, but the way things played out apoints to a sadistic nature. What Tyrion claims he did is above Ramsay's level of cruelty, and was completely unecessary. There are thousands of other cruel ways Tywin could have taught this "lesson" to Tyrion, But there is one thing that's worth note: Tywin made Tyrion fuck her at the end, and pay a golden coin. But how is that? How can you force a man to rape his own wife? Was there a threat? Maybe he told Tyrion that if he didn't rape her she would die. Still, how can this even be possible? Can someone stand an erection in a situation like this? All this to say that it seems convenient to Tyrion to claim that he was forced to rape Tysha at the end. We already have evidence that Tyrion distort memories that come with intense emotions (as when recalling Shae, at the Second Son's camp in Meereen), and he seems to never know the number of guys that raped Tysha, alternating from 50 to 100, maybe more, maybe less. Is there something to that memory that was hidden? It wont be the first time that Tyrion recalls something wrong (as when distorting Joffrey's line "send a dog to kill a dog" to "send a dog to kill a wolf"). This seems to be a important subject, since our POV chracters tend to have wrong perceptions of reallity when going thorugh rough events. Catelyn thinking of crows attacking her face at the Red Wedding, Brienne thinking that Gendry's spear through Bitter's head is acctually his tongue... Anyways, I would love to read more details about this event.
  2. Oh, shit. I might have screwd up in this one.
  3. I have some questions. Aegon claims to be the son of Rhagar and Elia, the rightfull king of Westeros, and that he was swapped by Varys just prior to the sack of King's Landing (probably righ after Aerys decided that Elia and her children couldn't leave the city and go to Dragonstone). When speaking with Tyrion, Tywin admits that he ordered the death of Aegon and Rhaenys, and gives a very deatailed description of Rhaenys's death, given by Sir Amory Loch. With regards to Gregor, he claims never ordering the death of Elia, because by herself she meant no harm to Robert's rule. All in all, he does not give any details of what happened, wich makes me wonder if he ever asked Gregor what actually happened there. But what happened there? We should first remember that Westeros its full of lies and false accusations, and that the Mountain itself had already been falsely acused of numerous crimes. I refer to the sacks of Mummer's Ford, Shereen and Wendish Town. I'm not proving that right now, but anyone can pay attention to the acusations and notice that they are very contradictory. Ned, for instance, thinks that "nobody speaks about the death of Elia and her children next to Gregor". Could it be because there are lies in the common version? Of course, the very gruesome description of Gregor raping Elia with her dead child's blood in his hands seems rather too much. Who saw this? Well, in maester Yandel's book, The World of Ice and Fire, there are some interesting informations: Of course, master Yandel is being fairly disonest here: he simply does not talk about Gregor Clegane nor Amory Loch. But he raises an important question: can one be so certain that Gregor killed the supposed Aegon? I do wonder if thats what Oberyn wanted to know when looking for a confession. Back in the Trial, Oberyn specifically makes three acusations: You raped her; You killed her; You murdered her children; Even when Gregor begins to die, Oberyn desperatelly wants him to confess his crimes before it. We are led to believe that it was all his own rage, and for sure he had a lot of it. In the end, Gregor's confession goes like: I raped her; I murdered her; And I smashed her head; So... No killing Aegon, huh? Matching this with Yandel's hoax about Elia killing "Aegon" before the Mountain arriving, we could formulate a rather strong argument pro-Aegon. Having that in mind, one could ask at least two questions: Was Oberyn trying to verify if Elia was actually the one who killed the "pisswater prince"? That would mean he heard about Aegon's cause sooner. Was Oberyn already convinced of Aegon's cause and trying to give to the whole King's Landing an argument pro-Aegon? Everybody will remeber that Gregor confessed raping and murdering Elia, but not killing Aegon; Of course, there's also the possibility that he was just trying to seek justice for his sister and ended up proving that Elia herself killed the baby, likely proving that some babyswapp happened to save Aegon. Is there any other evidence that can help us on this questions?
  4. The "Dissolved in wine" extent is really interesting. I haven't considered it in my first analysis, and it may be a strong argument against my theory. I wonder if the fact that Joffrey already had wine in his throat/mouth/stomach made it enough for the strangler to solve itself regardless of being inside the pie.
  5. I find it spectacular that he managed not only to deduce that, but also that Tyrion would be acused as well. Which means that he didn't expect Tyrion to die that night. Did you read the second section of the theory?
  6. Because Sir Dontos thought that Joff would die. I made it clear at the post.
  7. Hello everybody. I'm not arguing that Olenna wasn't planing to kill Joffrey. My point here is that, since she wanted to do this after the feast, Joffrey's death coming much earlier + coming from Tyrion's specific slice of pie sugests that he's pie was also poisoned. That would only be possible if there wore two murdering plots. Yes, I also considered the possibility of only Tyrion being the target. But if the imp was the only one meant to die there, why Sir Dontos was so sure that Joff would die and Tyrion would be acused? Sure it is a rather complex theory, with focus on details that GRRM may have never intended to mean a thing. But that's what it is: theory. It may be proven right, may be proven wrong, may never be proven at all. I'm confident about it because I could use logic, but then again, some incongruences could be GRRM not paying that much attention; There are still two books to go. It means that we are probably going to be feed with more information, so who knows?
  8. I'm talking here about Tyrion's specific slice of pingeon pie.
  9. Seriously, that's my main task. This was a topic about a theory that just so I posted i realized there was more, so I'm now trying to rearrange it in order to a better understanding in the future.
  10. This theory is my first contribuition to the Ice and Fire community, but it's a little complicated, so I'm trying to organize it in the most pedagogical way I can. It goes from fundamental incongruences between the narratives about what really happened by the time Joffrey was killed, and from the support of a interview made by GRRM in 2014. I argue that he purposelly wrote the book in a way that would lead us to misdirection - but the devil is in the details. That said, I'll try to order my ideas from the fundamental mistakes at the LF-Tyrell murder version to my own version of what happened there. Ready? Let's dig on this. First, the GRRM interview to EW, at wich the author made key revelations about his intend at the PW. I'll quote the most important paragraph: Ok, we have a very clear statement here. Whoever was trying to kill Joffrey, wanted it to look like an accident. Giving fact that the exactly opposite happened, we can start with our first question: was Tyrion's accusation just some random consequence of the chaotic enviroment of the wedding? Straight ahead, I'm answering: no. Littlefinger, who claims to be behind the murder all along, knew that this was going to happen. Should we question GRRM's own words about the book? Or course not. He is, in fact, giving us everything we need. Let's dig, then, into LF's version of what happened, and how exaclty he's so sure he was the one that killed Joffrey. 1. Littlefinger - Tyrell's Plot Problem: The first suspicious thing about this plan is that Littlefinger, besides be working with the Tyrells, it's directly sabotaging House Tyrell's plans: he's kidnapping Sansa. As we see in Olenna conversations with Sansa, she's very interested in wedding her to her grandson, Wyllas. All in all, she also wanted to take her on a trip to Highgarden after the wedding, and i quote: Why would Olenna make that offer if she knew that Sansa was going to flee with LF? It does seem like an incongruence between the two schemers. If you pay close attention to the wedding, both Joffrey and Margaery are drinking wine from the same cup. That wich was given, by the way, as a wedding present from Lord Mace Tyrell. That said, if Joffrey chokes on his pie, nobody could blame the wine, since he's bride was drinking from the same cup. And i quote: Could that mean the Olenna was, in fact, hoping the death of Joffrey to look like an accident? I say yes, but what whent so wrong that it ended up so bad for Tyrion? Does Littlefinger also wanted that to look like an accident? That said, we'll jump to LF''s own version of what happened, and try to match it with Sir Dontos version of what happened. And why? Because here resides fundamental mistakes too. 2. Littlefinger - Dontos Problem: Let's start with a few assumptions: Sir Dontos didn't atend the wedding. As agreed with Sansa, he was meant to meet her at the Godswood, wich means he was likely hiding somewhere in the castle. That said, he couldn't see what happened in the moment that Jofrrey died. If we assume that LF was waiting for Sansa in a ship and Dontos was hiding on land, that would mean that he couldn't reach out for LF in the meantime when the bells wore ringing so he could get a clever deduction of what happened. Sir Dontos it's a drunk fool. Let's assume that he's deduction skills are poor, if they exist. That said, it's very unlikely that he may be capable of figuring out what really happened at the wedding by mixed up information, and it's rather obvious that he trusted in LF's predicitons of what would happen at the wedding. That's an important factor to the theory, and you'll undestand why latter. That all lead to the simple conclusion that, again: Dontos was telling what he was being told to tell and expecting what he was told to expect. My point is here is that Sir Dontos reavealings of the plan to murder Joffrey dont match the acctual occurrences at the wedding. Let's examine the first conversation between Sansa and Dontos after the death of Joffrey, on their way to LF's ship. Wait a minute... Pingeon pie? If we follow assumptions 1 and 3, we would come to the conclusion that the poison was never meant to the wine. That's because, if it was meant to it, Dontos would naturally think it was the drink that killed Joff, not the food. Following assumption 4, we get the idea that LF also thought he was going to die by the pie. But what makes us so certain it was the wine? In fact, there's not a single strong evidence of it. The idea that the Strangler poison was meant to the wine comes from two different ocasions: Cersei's acusation and Sansa's own deduction. Jaime was also concerned about it, when trying to understand the poisoning. In fact, we are tricked to think that LF poisoned Joff's wine, but he never explicitly told us that. In ASOS, it's Sansa that asks LF if one of the Kettlebacks poisoned Joff's cup, and LF quickly asks her if someone touched her hairnet at the wedding. Of course, the hairnet thing was part of his plan. But what was his plan? My central point here is that, following the previous logical assumptions involving Sir Dontos, it is possible to deduce LF's plan. Let's hear Sir Dontos again: Following assumption 1, 3 and 4, we can deduce that LF knew all along that Tyrion was going to be arrested. But how? Well, we know for sure that the justing dwarfs wore hired by him. He couldn't predict that Joffrey would make Tyrion he's own cupbearer... but was this even necessary? Knowing that Joffrey and Tyrion would have a hatred discussion during the weddind wouldn't be enough for a crazy Cersei to acuse Tyrion of poisoning? But, if Olenna wanted it to be an accident and LF knew that was not going to happen, we should deduce that he was the one that worked for the chaos. In one single stroke, LF both kindapped Sansa quicker than the Tyrells and made it for Tyrion to be acused. Now we can deduce that LF betrayed the Tyrells at their own cup. Had Tyrion been executed, Sansa would now be a widow, ready for another marriage and wouldn't even have to become Alayne Stone. Here we saw LF almost managing to win an important battle at the game of thrones. Thanks to Varys, Tyrion is still alive and Sansa became a bastard. By now one could say that this case is closed. Through GRRM'S interview, House Tyrell actions and Sir Dontos words, it seems that the most important thing about the PW is that Tyrion wasn't meant to be acused in first place. Should we analyze one last paragraph of Sir Dontos, just to be sure there's nothing else to think about? That was said when Sir Dontos first proposed a chance of escape to Sansa, back in ACOK: Now...That's confusing! Joffrey clearly died on the very beginning of the feast. The bedding didn't start yet, nobody had even eaten the pie. It just dont match. Keep in mind that this is a complex poisoning scheme. No one could simply improvise another way to poison Joffrey, specially if the very person in charge of dealing with the poison (Olenna) is the one concerned in making it look like an accident. By assumption 4, we deduce that LF also wanted it to be that way. One can say i'm far too interested in the details. Yes, that would be a problem... but the devil is in the details. This is House Martin's own sigil, for sure. And when we start to read more critically, something else shows up. 3. Pingeon Pie. I'll start this section by GRMM's very detailed description of the moment at wich Joffrey chockes to his death: It is rather interesting the selection of the word "Working", here. It's almost as he wanted us to look in somewhere else in order to understand this problem. Following the text, Joffrey eats Tyrion's pie just after claiming that Tyrion didn't eat it. Can we believe in him? As we dig more into this, we must admit confusion. Back in section 2, I argued that LF knew Joffrey was going to be poisoned by the pie, but so it happens that he died eating Tyrion's pie. Assuming LF couldn't foreshadow Joffrey's actions to that point, we must take a step back and think: what if the poison was acctualy solved into the wine? Let's analyze it carefully: Its is important to understand that, by the time Joffrey had already cut the pie, the cup was empty. Tyrion than serves the wine that Joffrey instantly drinks. There's no mention to a single person aproatching the cup or even poisoning the bottle. Should we insist in the thesis that the wine was poisoned, we must deduce that it was poisoned right from before and then admit that it takes some time to work. But does it? Let's examine the only other case of poisoning by the strangler in ASOIAF, when Cressen tries to kill Melissandre: As we see, the only indication of the Strangler effect in one's throat is that it closes it instantly. This, along with the "His throat working" phrase, lead us to the conclusion that Tyrion's pie was poisoned. 4. A Second Murder Plot So far we've concluded that: LF-Tyrell's conspiracy had a unexpected twist; By deduction, that twist was made by Littlefinger; Joffrey's death didn't happen as planed; Evidence sugests there might have been a second plot aiming at Tyrion; In order to understand who might try to kill Tyrion, let's first try to understand what was his value in the game of thrones by the time of the Purple Wedding. Tyrion is Lord Tywin's second male son. Since Jaime is a knight from the Kingsguard, he can't inherit Casterly Rock and ain't supposed to quit the guard. Tyrion is the rightfull heir to Casterly Rock, and while he's father made clear to him that he may never be Lord of Casterly Rock, it ain't so clear to others. Tyrion is recently married to Sansa Stark, wich means that his son will be Lord of Winterfell. My statement here is that, from other lords point of view, Tyrion may be able to control both the Westlands and the North at some point in the future. He is the Lannister's most valuable piece at this point, wich is almost the same as being the most valuable target (it is also important to state that, since his marriage had already happened, someone interested in ceasing Lannisters powers by killing Tyrion may assume that Sansa is already pregnant of him. Since she didn't eat her slice of pingeon pie as well, there's also a possibility that her's was poisoned too). Our first suspect is, of course, Littlefinger. But if we follow assumption 4, we would deduce he never meant to kill Tyrion at the wedding: he thought the imp was going to be acused. The Tyrells would definitelly benefit from Tyrion's death, except we already came to the conclusion that they wanted it to look like an accident. Two dead Lannisters at the same wedding? That would even ruin Joffrey's poisoning (primal target), since the bedding wouldn't be happening. All this previous characterization of the Imp may lead us to believe Cersei wasn't capable of doing that. Her dumbness and paranoia ain't enough for her to try and ruin her own House. Another reasons might be: Everybody saw Joffrey bullying Tyrion and then eating a piece of his pie. If Cersei knew it was poisoned, wouldn't she scream for her son not to eat it? We happen to see Cersei as POV in AFFC. She really thinks Tyrion killed Joff. This is a very trustfull insinuation that she wasn't responsable for her son's death. Unless you believe she has alternative personalities, wich would require much more theorizing and evidence. So we discarded three agents: Littlefinger, Tyrells and Cersei. Process of elimination would be a very hard path to go here, since the wedding was crowded with different houses with different interests. Again, we should look for clues and details. Well, in that case, it looks like George Martin almost shouted on our faces the name of the poisoner: 5. The Red Viper From Dorne A great number of suspicion and theories have been made about the Martell's engagement in events through all the world of Ice and Fire. Perhaps the most famous, the Dornish Master Plan (DMB) was able to sumarize and relate a great number of events to Doran and Oberyn's cause. Whilist I don't believe in DMB theory because of some faults in its development and conclusion, I do agree in one thing: House Lannister is being largely affected by secret Martell scheming. My goal here its not to attach DMB's credibility to my own theory's credibility. You can disbelieve the first and agree to mine's, no harm. In this section, I'm aiming to show clues that incriminate Oberyn Martell at Joffrey's death, regardless if there is a master plan or not. Oberyn: “To be sure, I have much to thank your sister for. If not for her accusation at the feast, it might well be you judging me instead of me judging you.” The prince’s eyes were dark with amusement. “Who knows more of poison than the Red Viper of Dorne, after all? " Who knows more of poison than the Red Viper of Dorne, after all? So sarcastic, right? During the trial, it is explicity told that the Strangler is a very rare kind of poison. Only maesters are known for commonly having it. Rather than sarcasm, it looks like Oberyn is toying with Tyrion's ability to deduce the real criminal behind the murder: "Hey, look at me. Had you ever thought that I could be the poisoner?" Oberyn: "You look so very guilty that I am convinced of your innocence" .Again. another incriminating line from the Viper. Now, in order to accpept the idea that Oberyn killed someone, we should first check if it was possible. At some extent, it was obviously possible. Tyrion does not pay attention to the one serving his slice of pingeon pie, there are lots of comes-and-goes, and it is even explicitly said by Sir Balon Swann: Ser Balon Swann frowned. “The Imp was not alone on the dais. Far from it. That late in the feast, we had people standing and moving about, changing places, slipping off to the privy, servants were coming and going … the king and queen had just opened the wedding pie, every eye was on them or those thrice-damned doves. No one was watching the wine cup.” Checking Oberyn's own coments about the wedding, we can suspect him; Considering the small list of people with access to the Strangler, Oberyn becomes even more suspect; The conditions at wich the murder takes place are possible for him; Now we should look for the reasons for Tyrion's murder. Does he had any? 6. When the Justice will be served? This is a rather different section. I'm working both on facts and conjectures. The DMB theory is a possible explanation - a rather rich one, that I can't totally agree, but certainly it's right at some crucial points. May we use it? I ask the reader to look for this theory, specially the Deeper Dorne section, and then check if there's a match. Here, I'll try to theorize without large connections to other complex theories. The first clear fact that we should consider is Oberyn's desperate desire for vengeance. He wants the Lannisters to pay their debts. That goes for a number of chracters, but specially for Tywin. The one who gave the orders. The one who nobody could stand against. My point here is that Oberyn's goal in KL is much more about Tywin than it is to anybody else. But how Tyrion fits in the story? Lets start with the trial: Oberyn: “To be sure, I have much to thank your sister for. If not for her accusation at the feast, it might well be you judging me instead of me judging you.” The prince’s eyes were dark with amusement. “Who knows more of poison than the Red Viper of Dorne, after all? " Amusement? Sure there's a lot of amusement when Oberyn fights Sir Gregor. This trial means a lot to him. And it goes specially because of something Tywin did: ordered the rape and death of Elia Martell. To the viper, the price Elia and her children paid wasn't just about war: it was about payback. And i quote: Oberyn: “What I did not tell you was that my mother waited as long as was decent, and then broached your father about our purpose. Years later, on her deathbed, she told me that Lord Tywin had refused us brusquely. His daughter was meant for Prince Rhaegar, he informed her. And when she asked for Jaime, to espouse Elia, he offered her you instead.” Tyrion: “Which offer she took for an outrage.” Oberyn: “It was. Even you can see that, surely?” [...] Tyrion: “Well, Prince Rhaegar married Elia of Dorne, not Cersei Lannister of Casterly Rock. So it would seem your mother won that tilt.” “She thought so,” Prince Oberyn agreed, “but your father is not a man to forget such slights. He taught that lesson to Lord and Lady Tarbeck once, and to the Reynes of Castamere. And at King’s Landing, he taught it to my sister. My helm, Dagos.” Manwoody handed it to him; a high golden helm with a copper disk mounted on the brow, the sun of Dorne. The visor had been removed, Tyrion saw. “Elia and her children have waited long for justice.” Prince Oberyn pulled on soft red leather gloves, and took up his spear again. “But this day they shall have it.” Was it just about the war? I hardly think so. To Oberyn, Elia died because of Tywin's own rage: they stolen he's blood from Rhaegar's children. Gregor Clegane was a mere pawn; he didn't understand why he was to this, he was just following orders. My point here is that the Viper intended this trial to happen long before arriving in KL. He didn't choose to fight for Tyrion when he saw that Gregor Clegane would be Cersei's champion; he decided to kill Tyrion and demand a trial by combat. Who else would be the champion for any Lannister victim? Bronn? I hardly think so. I could also talk about the strong evidence that Tywin was being poisoned by Oberyn with the Widows Blood, Sarella Sand sending visions to Lancel and making him confess his crimes to the Faith, Armory Loch trown to the bear pit, Qyburn suspicious behavior... But you can see it all in other theories, specially DMB and Deeper Dorne. Please, do it. For the Grand Finalle, I would like to point this creepy line that Oberyn keeps telling to Tyrion since he arrived in King's Landing: Every time he chanced to see Oberyn Martell the prince asked when the justice would be served. Tyrion: “Are you hungry, my prince?” Oberyn: “I have hungered for a long time. Though not for food. Pray tell me, when will the justice be served?” Served Like a slice of pingeon pie with a spoon of lemon cream is served? "A serving man placed a slice of hot pigeon pie in front of Tyrion[...]" That said, I ask you to feel free and talk about what you think that really happened at the Purple Wedding. Feel free to share! Edit 1: Yes, I'm Djscarlax97 from reddit. Just before anyone else ask.
  11. I'll use this thread to make another question: How exactly Ned had find Rickard and Brandon's bones after the rebellion? Did Aerys keep it as some kind of gesture of honor? It seems pretty strange to me.
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