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Mister Smikes

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  1. The Alchemist killed Pate and took his face some months earlier. I assume that was of some use to the Alchemist, but I'm not sure exactly what. But it is hardly self evident that Pate is so supremely useful to the Alchemist, that the Alchemist plans to remain Pate forever and ever and ever and ever and ever. You however seem quite certain that several months as Pate are not enough time for the Alchemist to achieve whatever he hoped to achieve as Pate. You also seem certain that the Alchemist's future goals involve remaining at the Citadel indefinitely. So again, what do you know that I don't?
  2. How old were Dany's fossilized dragon eggs? Anyhow, dragons are magical creatures, and we don't know if greyscale works on dragons the same way it does on people.
  3. Many months have elapsed since the start of ADWD. It is true that I do not give you an exact breakdown of everything that has happened since. But that hardly proves that nothing has happened. Salador San has certainly had time to return to Lys and retrieve Edric since we last saw him. Who says he ever let them go? Salador owns an entire fleet, and Lys is his home base. For all we know, Edric and his entourage may be virtual prisoners there, in his castle or manse ... as honored guests, or course, until and unless they try to leave. Good luck to them. But it is almost as though you think Edric was never in any danger from Stannis and Mel, because, after all, Andrew Estermont and the others were there to protect him. GRRM will have a super-easy time getting around this obstacle, if that's where he wants the story to go. Okay, but why is this an obstacle? Why do you think Salador does not know where Edric is? Sure, it is POSSIBLE he does not know, but you cannot disprove a theory with a purely speculative objection. Wiki knows nothing we have not already discussed. It cites the same appendix we have been discussing. Which, again, relates to the beginning of ADWD. And again, many months have passed since then.
  4. It really sounds as though you are just talking past whatever I say. You keep insisting that Edric is still on Lys, just because of the suggestion he WAS on Lys at the beginning of ADWD. You keep ignoring the likelihood that Edric is in Sallador's power. Lys is Sallador's base, and if they were on Lys it was because Sallador took them there. A small handful of men, however loyal, cannot stand up to a pirate captain with a small fleet of ships. I said nothing about fAegon invading Lys to sieze Edric. Sallador already had Edric. Sallador is a mercenary. He will sell Edric to whoever he wants. He does not even need to join their team permanently, though of course he can do that too for the right price. Nor have Edric's entourage have any particular reason to object to being put out of the hands of a pirate captain, and into other hands. They have no reason to suspect that the new protectors might want Edric for purposes of human sacrifice.
  5. I did not say or mean Melisandre. If Sallador changes teams, then fAegon can easily know whatever Sallador knows. We know Sallador's allegiances have changed, though as yet there is no confirmation he has joined fAegon's cause. Sallador can deliver Edric to his new allies, with or without telling them that he once hid Edric on Lys. As for what happens to Edric next in the hands of his new "protectors", Sallador has no particular need to know or care.
  6. Yeah, but we're talking past each other. That he MIGHT still be in Lys is not disproof of a theory that suggests he may no longer be there by the end of the book. Sallador is a pirate captain, and Lys is his base. By the end of the book, Sallador no longer serves Stannis. Even if Edric's handful of retainers are loyal to Edric (or Stannis, or the long dead King Robert), they have little power, and are more over unlikely to suspect any further schemes involving blood magic rituals.
  7. You mean the appendix? The appendix reflects status at the beginning of the book, not the end of the book. And the pirate captain Salador Saan has already abandoned Stannis' cause.
  8. Yes, I know. But GRRM also gave us a work of fantasy with actual dragons. I don't see how we can rule out prophesies and foreshadowings, including the SSM foreshadowed "second dance of the dragons", being about them as well. Right. I challenged the assumption that there will be only 3 dragons all the same age. I went to the trouble of giving reasons. It is like we are talking in circles now. Farmers are still rushing to pull in a final harvest in preparation for the long winter. There's still time for dragons to burn alot of these needed harvests, not to mention needed stores. Nor do I see how caked snow would prevent dragons from burning towns and castles. Do you think fires don't happen in winter? In particular, I think the Chekov's bomb under King's Landing is likely to go off, and what is more likely to ignite it than a dragon attack. Eventually ... sure But, as you surely know, that wasn't my idea. I did not propose that Aegon's dragon would be one of the known 3. The possibility I proposed was that he already has a dragon, and the readers does not know it yet. I doubt fAegon is an important enough character to "eventually" get a dragon in Book 9 or whatever. Hence, my proposition was that he already has one, and (as foreshadowed) he will lose it because of having brought it out too early, as in his Cyvasse game. Again, I just challenged the assumption that he does not have a dragon. Those Hightowers are Loras' aunt and grandpa. And they are not "stuck" in Oldtwon. Grandpa Hightower is a lord, not a prisoner. Grandpa Hightower controls a city on the sea. And the language "friends in the Reach" does not imply the entire Reach on Young Griff's side. Loras is a 3rd son, with no particular motive to take the side of "the Tyrells". Eventually in Book 8? Why do you object to the suspicion that things have already gone on in Dragonstone, and the readers does not know about them yet? Which will become relevant in Book 10, I guess. I already challenged this assumption. Are you saying , "I trust Salador Saan"? What other reason do you have for thinking Edric Storm is in Lys? I'm not sure either. It's a theory . But Marwyn is also a blood mage, and Sam told Marwyn all about Mance's child, and Aemon's corpse too. Marwyn's lore, through Mirri, have already indirectly played a roll in waking dragons out of stone. And king's blood of a sort was involved there too. If Rhaego and Drogo count, then why not Aemon's corpse and Mance's baby? Marwyn's pupil Mirri did play a role in the hatching of Dany's dragons using blood magic. So already we have a suggestion that these ideas might not be unique to Mel. Who said anything about creating Saviors? When one wakes a stone dragon one gets a dragon, presumably. Maybe one that breathes shadow fire. What prophesy? I'm referring to the lore that kings blood can be used to wake a stone dragon. Does he? I'm not saying your theory is impossible. I merely suggested another possibility that you are not so much ruling out as ignoring. And I might add that your theory is maybe not a very spectacular one, given all the buildup to it. If it's that mundane, then I wonder why GRRM kept us all in suspense about it. And did not GRRM promise that the prologue might relate to the capture of Storms End? I would think he would want to start with a bang. When has Storms End ever been attacked by a dragon?
  9. Seems like a very loose association. But you might still be right. If you are, all I can say is I hope there is more to it than that because that idea is not nearly as fun or interesting to me. I don't care whether the tyrant oppressing the smallfolk is a man or a woman. One can name and count all 5 kings. Maester-quibbles aside, it seems far more fitting than calling a war "The Second Dance of the Dragons" merely because it features females challenging male authority. Sure, but who wants that? As a mediocre chess player, I am very familiar with the idea that a novice who is tempted to bring out his queen too early often ends up without a queen. GRRM has merely adapted the adage to Cyvasse. You would rather analogize to a player who is doomed to lose because he starts the game with a queen-odds handicap. That analogy is not nearly as apt. But of course, it might not be foreshadowing at all. Maybe Young Griff is a bad chess player but a great military strategist. Who knows. I was offering it for what it was worth, which is maybe not much. But I'd rather see it as not being foreshadowing at all, than to stretch the symbolism as far as you are doing. Yeah, those ones. The super-realistic ones on Dragonstone that Davos suspects are not really statues at all. And Loras is there on Dragonstone, supposedly dying. And we are not quite sure what is going on with him. Loras' mother (of unknown heritage) has silver hair. His grandfather and aunt are magicians, currently more interested in studying magical texts than worrying about the ironborn threat. Marwyn may possibly be in league with Tyrells -- at least young Leo Tyrell speaks highly of Marwyn. And, I've forgotten now, but was there not some hint of Young Griff having friends in the Reach? Did it? Sallador Saan was supposed to smuggle Edric Storm to safety. Do you trust him? His latest conduct is none too reassuring. And then Jon tries to keep yet another kingsblood baby safe from blood-magic rituals by sending it south with Sam Tarly. And what does Sam Tarly do? He delivers the Kingsblood baby (as well as Aemon's kingsblood corpse) right into the hands of a blood mage, who may be in league with the Tyrells. Sure, it is taking time for the other shoe to drop with this as with many other things. But GRRM seems to be going out of his way to keep that little loose end alive. And we still have a bit of a mystery as to how exactly it was that YG managed to conquer Storm's End. Yeah, that too. Sure. We probably won't even see tWoW til 2025 at this rate.
  10. I have given some thought to the possibility that this might refer to actual dragons. Dragons old (Sheepstealer or progeny, Cannibal or progeny, Silverwing or projeny, the Dragon of Winterfell, a Dragon of Skagos, a Dragon of the Mountains of the Moon or of some other remote deserted location) and young (Drogon, Rhaegal, Viserion), true and false (not sure -- would a zombie dragon be "false"?--), bright and dark (we already have one dragon that breathes black fire, and a prophesy of a dragon breathing shadow fire, or perhaps this could be a metaphor for an allegiance for or against dark forces, or control by dark forces)
  11. Judging from a few of the known ingredients and by analogy to medieval medicine, I do not think that "moon tea" is a magical foolproof, fail-safe, herbal abortifacient. One either takes it in small doses in which cases it might not work, or in large doses in which case it might kill more than just the pregnancy. Anyhow nobody seems to have asked why Lollys did not just take moon tea.
  12. Another way of looking at this is that his chances of getting a dragon (though perhaps not necessarily riding it himself) are excellent, since (1) GRRM has promised a second dance of the dragons, which, by analogy to the first dance, requires dragons controlled by multiple factions; (2) it is foreshadowed, by way of a chess metaphor, that he will bring out his dragon too early and lose it; and (3) he has friends in the reach which may include blood magicians capable of using king's blood rituals to wake stone dragons (that is, cure dragons with advanced greyscale mistaken for statues). There's been a huge buildup for the awakening of these stone dragons. All the more reason to suppose GRRM might make things more interesting.
  13. That depends. Does "dragon" necessarily mean "anyone with Valyrian blood"? I think Quentyn succeeded; but never mind. Assuming he failed and died, that would hardly prove he did not have Valyrian blood.
  14. Tyrion knows he met Young Griff and Lady Lemore on the Pentos-to-Norvos road, and knows or guesses they did not come from Pentos. He knows that the group has some connection to Dorne. He guesses (though he is not particularly interested at the moment) that Lemore is "something to" the lad, and he knows that she has stretch marks on her belly. He knows Lady Lemore identifies as a merchant's daughter, and that Illyrio (a merchant) refers to Young Griff as "our lad". He knows or guesses that Serra, Illyrio's wife, had Valyrian traits. He knows or guesses that the Blackfyre-aligned Golden Company is supporting Young Griff's cause for mysterious reasons other than money. Give him one or two more clues, and a motive to be skeptical, and I think a FAKE AEGON theory just might start formulating in his brain.
  15. He does not much care as long as he sees Young Griff as one who can help him hurt Cersei. Which I think helps explain his lack of interest in Lemore's secrets. But that could easily change.
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