Mister Smikes

16 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

you're playing word games. obviously vic is there because euron sent him, but now he's thousands of miles away and can do what he wants.

That's what Vic thinks.  That's why he agreed to go.  It's not too difficult to think that Vic has miscalculated and Euron is 2 steps ahead of him.

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whatever you mean by "control" it's not the kind of control that counts, meaning that euron can make decisions and influence events.

Well then, I guess Euron is just going to show up in person, and claim his dragons and his bride himself.  Won't Vic be disappointed.

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when does euron say he's going to mereen?

At the Kingsmoot,  he tells them there are 3 dragons in the world, he knows where to find them, and he intends to bind the dragons to his will using the dragonbinder horn.

In the hold of the Silence, as they sail south from the Iron Islands, he tells Aeron they are sailing for "dragons".

At the Shields, he tells them that "we" are going to Slavers" Bay,  and they rebel.

Afterwards, Euron laments that he would bring them dragons, and they cry out for grapes.

In Asha's chapter, Asha says her nuncle is off "chasing dragons".

Again in the hold of the Silence, Euron tells Aeron he has no interest in holding either the Shields or the Seastone Chair, and expects the Shields to be lost.

Moqorro tells Tyrion that he has ordered his captain to steer the shortest course to reach Dany.  Why?  Because "others seek Danaerys too."   Among those "others" that Moqorro sees seeking Dany in his fires is "A tall and twisted thing with one black eye and ten long arms, sailing on a sea of blood."

The only time Euron implies he is NOT going, is when he is tricking Vic into going.

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he sent vic to fetch dany for him, so he's not going. seems clear.

Clear to Vic sure.  Vic thinks Euron is not going.  So Vic thinks there is nothing stopping him from claiming the bride and the dragons for himself.

Vic is stupid.

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it seems pretty clear he wants the iron throne and dany and dragons.

But not in that order.  He needs Dany and her dragons to take the Iron Throne.  And he means to claim them himself.

2 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

Really if the issue is George trying to fit it in just one book, I don't see why this should in fact be an issue. 

It's not an issue.  Nobody cares about how big the book is.  There are all kinds of solutions to the problem, including publication in 2 parts simultaneously.  

If (hypothetically) he has more than 1500 pages and has not published yet, the issue MIGHT be that he needs to write more before he reaches a satisfactory cut-off point.  

But it is really wishful thinking to suppose he has that much written.

15 hours ago, SeanBeanedMeUp said:

Seriously he should get the pages of the books to be bigger so that he can stuff in more words. I don't mind the change if it means that we can get more material in one book.

He's got to write the words first.

On 8/25/2021 at 6:51 PM, TheNecromancerofMirkwood said:

He should be doing 3 books instead of 2: The Winds of Winter, A Time for Wolves and then A Dream of Spring, each no more than 1000 pages. But, that's just my opinion....

When GRRM passes into the great beyond, many decades hence, they will find maybe 600 pages of material on his computer, which another author will adapt and expand into a volume entitled "A Haggling of Harpies."  I'll be dead by then.

2 hours ago, Jekse said:

I said nothing about why Barry was added in Meereen, and you're just repeating my point about why he was added as a POV. 

In that case, I don't understand how it follows that he will do nothing important in the story.

3 hours ago, Jekse said:

Also I don't really see him doing anything much important in the story, keep in mind he was added as an afterthought-POV because GRRM needed someone on the inside of Meereen at the end of Dance 

This logic is misleading.  GRRM did not put Baristan in Meereen because he needed a point of view there.  He put Baristan in Meereen for some other reason (whatever that was) and then belatedly decided he needed to give Baristan POV chapters, to solve some particular problem he had.

2 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

This is where you are wrong fam. Euron never tricked Victarion into taking the Iron Fleet to Slavers' Bay; he just simply told him to do it and Victarion complied, while secretly plotting to betray Euron.

There was literally no trick. Euron didn't even have to bribe him.

Euron makes an offer.  Victarion accepts it because he hopes to manipulate the situation to his own advantage.  Euron knows this, but is two steps ahead of Victarion who is dumb as a box of rocks.  That's all I mean by "tricked." 

I'm not sure what exactly Euron has up his sleeve, but nothing can be more certain but that he will outmanuever Victarion.

But one thing can be guessed.  Victarion imagines he will be in charge at Slavers' Bay and take credit for any victories there.  But he won't.  Euron will appear and claim the victory, and Victarion is probably not long for this world.

Anyhow, this is an insane conversation.  First someone tells me that the Ironborn will mutiny. rather than go to Slavers Bay.  I point out that the Ironborn are already in Slavers Bay.  Now I've got someone else telling me I am wrong because I used the word "tricked".  No, no, they were not tricked!  They went of their own free will!  All Euron had to do was ask. 

Okay, fine.  Have it your way.  They were not "tricked".  They are still in Slavers Bay.  They are exactly where Euron wants them to be.

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Wrong again. Damphair was captured and imprisoned on the Iron Isles not at the Shields.

Damp-hair had 3 periods of imprisonment:  (1) imprisonment on the Silence, (2) imprisonment at the Shields, and (3) imprisonment - again - on the Silence.  During all 3 periods of imprisonment he was held in complete darkness, and lost track of time.  

I said nothing about where he was captured.  But yes, he was captured on the Iron Islands (but never imprisoned there).

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Your larger point is correct but Euron can't sail to Slaver's Bay and back in a matter of weeks. That's ludicrous.

At a steady 12 knots (faster for all I know) he certainly can.  Do the math.  

Euron all-but tells us he can control the winds by blood sacrifice; that he can "ride the storm".   But nobody bothers to consider what that really means.

We have already seen Stannis' fleet journey in record time to the Wall, thanks to Mel's magic, so we know these things work.

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Especially given the fact that he is going to have to take Dany's vast armies with him on the way back to Westeros.

I said nothing about how fast he would go once he picked up Dany and her vast armies.  All I am saying that in the roughly 5 months (or more) that Damp-hair has been imprisoned, he has had time so far to sail all kinds of places and do all kinds of things.  But obviously he has not picked up Dany and her vast armies yet, so I obviously was not considering that yet.

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Umm...the actual language.

The Redwyne fleet is coming, so we are going to have to fight them.

That's not the actual language.  Telling lies is a poor way to win an argument.

I have already admitted it is one possible interpretation.  But you are refusing to consider the other interpretation.  And that is not an argument either.

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And where are they leaving?

Probably an Island off the Arbor.  At least, that's apparently what his captains think.  But if Euron has been sailing out of sight of land, and the captains have been following him, it is possible that only Euron knows where they really are.

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They have to outmaneuver and outpace both the Redwyne fleet if they want to go east and the Tyrell mini-fleet that is supposed to be headed towards the Shields if they want to go back to the Iron Isles. They will likely be chased too if they try to leave.

Do you think the ocean is a bathtub?  We know that Euron can sail out of sight of land.  We know that Ironborn ships are fast, as they are designed as raiders.  We know that Euron can control the winds by blood magic.  The Redwyne fleet does not know where Euron is now, much less where he is going.  Euron can't be found.  Euron can't be chased.

4 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

Euron nearly faced a mutiny when he said he'd take his entire fleet and move to Slaver's Bay. I don't know why that should change now.

That's ancient history.  Euron has already tricked Victarion into taking the Iron Fleet to Slaver's Bay.  And the Iron Fleet is at Slaver's Bay.

And as for the 12 Captains who are most closely-tied to Euron himself, and who sail out with him on at the end of The Foresaken, there is no indication they won't follow Euron wherever he wishes to go.

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His men want Oldtown. They've said it since the Reaver chapter, and there's little evidence to think that they'll settle for anything else.

These are the same fools he is leaving behind to be slaughtered.  And good riddance as far as he is concerned.  

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That's why he sent Victarion instead of going himself. And if Euron was going to go to Slaver's Bay anyway, why should he leave now when he should have gone with Victarion? 

Euron, with his power to control the winds by blood sacrifice, can travel much faster than Victarion.  They do not need to leave at the same time, to arrive at the same time or earier.  And Euron wants Victarion to imagine he is acting in his own behalf.  That is part of the manipulation.  He does not want Victarion to know that Euron will show up as well.   Victarion thinks he is pursuing his own glory.

In the meantime, we don't actually know what Euron is up to.  The Foresaken chapter covers maybe 5 months of time or more, and Damp-hair sees Euron only rarely.  We don't actually know how much time has passed while Damp-hair was imprisoned at the Shields.  Nor do we know how much time has passed while Damp-hair was imprisoned in the hull of the Silence.  Meanwhile, Euron can sail to Slavers' Bay and back in a matter of weeks.

I don't think Euron has just been sitting at the Shields the whole time.  We will find out what he has been up to later.  In the meantime, GRRM does not want us to know.

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And FYI, Victarion passed through the Stepstones before the Redwyne Fleet did, so they didn't even cross paths. it's just a matter of good timing. Euron can't do that this time, since two fleets are coming straight at him from two opposite directions. 

Dude.  Come on!  I already explained this.   Euron can sail out of sight of land.   He has done this before, leading other ships in his wake.  That's how he approached the Shields.  He can bypass anyone, any time.

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Basically, he's almost already trapped.

LOL, no.

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Oldtown's fleet is blocking the north side of the straits, and the Redwyne Fleet is coming straight at him from the south. 

Euron has no need to use the "north side of the straits".  He is (apparently) on an island off the Arbor, which presumably means he is either on the south side of the straits or not in the straits at all.   And the Redwyne fleet can't come straight for him unless they know where he is.  And how would they know where he is?   Apparently, Euron just attacked this island, slaughtered its inhabitants, and sailed away leaving the castle burning behind him.   The slaughtered corpses have barely had time to grow cold.   By the time the Redwyne fleet finds out he was ever there, he will be already gone.

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But he's learned from the battle of Fair Isle, where the Iron Fleet was caught in the rear in the straits between Fair Isle and the Westerlands. The situation is exactly the same this time, except that would be repetitive and out of character for him to be caught like that again, taking into account the fact that this time it's predictable, and probably what he planned. 

LOL.  You are overlooking a key similarity.  In the First Battle of Fair Isle, Euron was not present either.  Euron took the credit for the victories of the Greyjoy Rebellion, but left Victarion holding the reins for the defeat.

He intends to do the same thing here.  And says so.  Euron gets the credit for conquering the Shields.  Others will have the shame of losing them.

And what do you expect Euron to learn from the battle off Fair Isle?  What it tells us is that the Iron Throne can crush the Iron Fleet.  All they have to do is catch them.  And somehow, you think this proves that Euron is just going to sit around and wait to get caught?  Why on earth would he do that?  He does not even have the Iron Fleet to back him up.  Because he sent it to Slavers' Bay.

2 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

What ? There definitely IS going to be a battle against the Redwyne fleet. Here, this quote is pretty explicit: 

“We are going back to sea. The Redwyne fleet creeps toward us. The winds have been against them rounding Dorne, but they’re finally near enough to have emboldened the old women in Oldtown, so now Leyton Hightower’s sons move down the Whispering Sound in hopes of catching us in the rear.”

Sounds to me like "the Redwyne fleet is coming, so we are leaving". 

Why should I assume it means, "the Redwyne fleet is coming, so we are going to meet them ..."  ?

Why on earth would Euron wait around to be "caught in the rear" by the concentrated naval might of Westeros.  

The Ironborn are basically pirates and raiders.  When their opponents draw battle lines, they go elsewhere.  That's their style.  

And if they ever did plan to meet the concentrated naval forces of Westeros in a pitch battle, it would not be after sending the bulk of their best naval forces, the Iron Fleet, to Slavers' Bay.

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If "going back to sea" right as Stonehand talks about battle dispositions and strategies means no battle to you, I'm afraid you're seriously misinterpreting the text.

I never said there would not be fighting.  What do you think is going on in Slavers' Bay?

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The Redwyne Fleet was originally on its way to reconquer the Shield Islands, but since they set sail, the Ironborn have moved on to the Arbor and Whispering Sound, so the Redwyne Fleet isn't just going to pass without attacking them just to reconquer the Shields, especially with the text specifically mentioning that Oldtown is preparing to move against them simultaneously. 

The entire Iron Fleet, led by Victarion, has passed around the south of Westeros, and they have been raiding and pillaging along the way.  But they are already gone.  They are at Slavers' Bay.

Euron has just left his island base near (apparently) the Arbor.  Judging from the fact that he left the castle burning behind him, he has no plan to return.   If the Redwyne fleet attacks Euron at the Arbor, Euron will not be waiting there, no more than he will be waiting at the Shields.

Euron can sail out sight of land, and lead other ships.  He can ride the storm by blood sacrifice.  He has no need to meet the Redwyne fleet in pitched battle.  He can just outsail them and outmaneuver them and bypass them.  Victarion has already managed to bypass them en route to Slavers' Bay.  And if Victarion can bypass them, Euron certainly can.

And if he planned to meet the concentrated naval might of Westeros, he would hardly think of doing that without the Iron Fleet.  But the Iron Fleet has been sent to Slavers' Bay.    

And that's where Euron plans to be too.  And he can travel much faster than Victarion, since he can control the winds by blood sacrifice, and ride the storm.

On 8/12/2021 at 9:18 AM, nyser1 said:

Only if we want A Dream of Spring to be released around 2040.

Well, aren't you optimistic!

23 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Why do you think Barristan will die?

Probably for reasons we're not aloud to talk about.  But beyond that, GRRM did hint that he is going to eliminate alot of his current POVs, and Barristan does seem like one of the more expendable ones.

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Do you think Marwyn makes it in time?

He won't even try to make it on time.  He's not going to Dany.  He just told Sam that, to appease him.  The sinister Cabal who lay in wait for Sam are not actually on the same team as Sam.

5 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

Quentyn is dead.

Tatters, burnt beyond recognition, died on Dany's bed.  Quentyn is with Viserion at the Pyramid.  Tyrion missed something when he was in the tent, but when the commander rode up in a rage against the Windblown, it is because Archie's secret plan (that he could not tell Gerris in front of Barristan) succeeded.  Archie's plan to turn the Windblown has succeeded, but in a manner he could not explain in front of Barristan.

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Euron has no control over any sell sword company in meereen or anyone else in meereen.

LOL, not even Victarion?  The text does not even make a secret that Victarion is Euron's puppet.

And if Euron has no connection in Essos, what the hell has he been up to for the past 15 years?  He clearly has ambitions that go beyond merely being a pirate.

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I strongly doubt Euron is going to Meereen.

Well, I would not exactly trust him.  But, in this case, why do you think he's lying?  Where would he be going if not where he says he is going, where he sent the entire iron fleet ahead of him, and where a climax of some kind is going to occur?

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I don't see anyone taking control of a dragon in connection with the battle of meereen.

Well then, how will Dany get to Westeros after the battle is over, if the dragons are still uncontrolled?  Or will Dany not reach Westeros til book 7?

1 hour ago, Makk said:

I agree with most of this but I find the bolded part extremely unlikely.

That was the only part I agreed with.  I don't know about "well before", but I certainly agree that Dany will reappear before it ends.

1 hour ago, Makk said:

Are you basing this on all the winds preview chapters that have been made public? The battle for Meereen was all but over when the chapter suddenly cut out.

By "all but over", I guess you mean "not over."

1 hour ago, Makk said:

And there was no Dany. It is hard to judge her timeline after she flies off on Drogan in relation to the events in Meereen (we only have passages like "many days passed" to help) but potentially what you see of her last in Dance with the Dothraki and Drogan happens weeks after the battle of Meereen.

The alternative could be true as well, and IMHO, is more likely to be true.  GRRM was at least trying to return to presenting the chapters in more or less chronological order, and the last Dany chapter has been published before the "Battle of Meereen" chapters.  If she and her Dothraki friends get their asses in gear, they have time to return before the end.

1 hour ago, BlackLightning said:

But I'm also asking the question of why do you think the Battle of Meereen didn't make the cut for "A Dance with Dragons?"

That's not the question.  The real question is "why did the Battle of Meereen not make the cut for "A Feast For Crows"? And the answer is that GRRM got carried away and bit off more than he could chew.

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Clearly the book's overall theme of dancing with dragons comes to a head with the Battle of Meereen.

No.  The book's overall theme is "I'm still trying to finish A Feast for Crows so Dany can get to Meereen and the second Dance of the Dragons can begin"..

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That said, there's no way Euron is appearing in Slaver's Bay.

Totally wrong.

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For that to happen, the Battle of the Redwyne Straits needs to have been fought and won AND the appetites of the Ironborn lords and captains need to be sated with the fall of Oldtown.

Nonsense.   There is not going to be any "Battle of the Redwyne Straits" and even if such thing occurs, Euron is not going to be there.    This is a fan delusion.  Neither Euron nor GRRM have said anything to suggest that Euron intends to encounter the Redwyne Fleet.  What Euron intends is for the fools who accepted his poison gifts to be slaughtered by the Redwyne Fleet. The Redwyne Fleet is on its way to the Shield Islands, to reconquer these same fools.  And the Redwyne Fleet will have been decoyed to the other side of Westeros.  Just in time for Dany's crossing.

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Otherwise, Euron will lose his crown and will be travelling to Daenerys alone.

Euron does not give two hoots about his crown, just as he does not give two hoots about the Seastone Chair.  He will take it, use it, and throw it away, like the dragon egg.  His crown and his Ironborn subjects are expendable tokens in his game of chaos.  

He will be traveling to Meereen with his 12 captains.  And he already sent Victarion ahead of him.  And he already controls the Storm Crows and the Company of the Cat. 

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Which puts him in the same position Quentyn was in.

Quentyn has a dragon.  He is hanging out with his new friend Viserion in an abandoned pyramid.  If Euron manages to get one or more dragons as well, and/or manages to get Dany herself, he will have gotten what he is after.  He wants dragons, he wants Dany, and he wants the Iron Throne.  He does not care about the Seastone Chair.

Euron and GRRM are not even trying to fool anyone.  Euron makes no secret where he is going and what he wants, but nobody listens.

Not sure I understand the question.  If you want me to venture some predictions.  I will make some.

The Windblown will switch sides after a man wearing what appears to be the distinct tattered cloak of the Tattered Prince is seen flying Viserion and signaling to his men.  The Windblown will follow him, believing them to be their leader, who has been missing ever since the Quentyn's raid on the dragon pit.

Dany will return to Meereen with Drogon, bringing a horde of Dothraki with her.

The Dragonbinder horn will have some effect on Rhaegal.  To be more daring, I guess that Victarion will force Tyrion to blow the Dragonbinder horn, which will kill Tyrion, but not before transferring his consciousness into Rhaegal.

In any event, the battle will end with all 3 dragons more or less controlled in some sense, such that they can be led to Westeros.

Victarion will die, but not before delivering to Meereen a fleet to ships to transport Dany's Dothraki hordes.

Euron will appear in Slaver's Bay.  By decoying the Redwyne fleet to the other side of Westeros, he has paved the way for Dany's crossing.

Do I find it plausible that GRRM will need 3,000 pages to cover whatever he had planned for TWOW?  Sure.

But do I believe GRRM has already passed 1,500 pages or 2,000 pages?  Sorry, but no.  There is no indication of that.