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Posts posted by Thandros

  1. 13 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

    He had Tyrion, Lancel, Willem and Martyn as Lannister males available at that time.

    Martyn is still available at the current time in-universe, but it doesn't matter now since Cersei became the lady of Casterly Rock in her own right. Tommen and Myrcella are above him in the succession line, but they will die soon, therefore he has good chances inherit Casterly Rock since Tyrion is a kinslayer.

    The Westermen will never follow him.


    …. you seem to be completely missing the point. Sure in the original timeline they were all alive if not necessarily available (Willem and Martyn were prisoners of Robb) in a scenario where Renly takes King's Landing then Tyrion and Lancel are either dead or prisoners of Renly. This would leave the Westerlands in the hands of women, distant cousins or Freys if Tywin and Kevan die. Your second section seems to be making a completely unrelated point to both the first and the context of the conversation so I'm going to ignore it.

  2. 15 hours ago, Ivashanko said:


    I think Renly has to go after Tywin first. The Starks with their presumptions of separatism are no real threat to Renly's bases of support, but Tywin is.

    Renly takes King's Landing and fights it out with the Lannister armies. The North withdraws, fortifies, and leaves its options open.

    Admittedly it is not the best plan ever, but it is workable given the situation. Robb cannot stay north of the Neck without losing the support of many of his vassals: the Riverlanders for obvious reasons and presumably many of the Northern lords because Robb swore an oath of overlordship and cannot casually break it. His retreating also destroys any chance the Vale declares for him.

    Robb also cannot declare for either Stannis or Renly until he knows which one will win their personal game of thrones. If he declares for one and that one loses it is a disaster. If he declares for the Baratheon, regardless of who wins, he effectively declares for Renly. Stannis would never forgive him.

    He needs to remain a credible threat in the field and wait for things in the south to finish up. The reason this plan failed wasn't because of anything any southern army did, but rather because Robb's capital fell to Theon's reavers. The second Winterfell was taken Robb's enemies began to stir.

    Unless Tyrion and Cersei's plans with Tommen work out and Tommen ends up in the Westerlands. All of that happening is rather unlikely and that leaves Tywin as a directionless rebel with no cause diminishing manpower and resources and extremely limited ability to bring in reinforcements from anywhere given that Renly would control the sea of the Reach by that point. Tywin also has no future to count upon given his only available heir of his name is a two year old girl if him and Kevan kick the bucket. Unless he goes into Genna's brood but two of them are also prisoners including the eldest, one we know nothing about and only the youngest is known to be safe. With Tommen Tywin can present a threat to Renly ideologically and could attempt to swing alliances his way. Without him Tywin is out of friends and doesn't really have a cause to motivate his men. Renly could leave him for a while to see if his forces simply break apart and he can capitalize by accepting Westlander defections. Particularly if he's able to get his hands on some Westermen captives from Robb Stark.

    The other thing to consider is where Renly's army is. King's Landing. To directly attack Tywin he has to march all the way back through the Reach and then up the ocean road. Both other routes to the Westerlands lead through the Riverlands and Robb Stark would probably feel either compelled or advantageous to harass his flank if Renly tried to march along the Gold Road. But Robb Stark's separatism does represent a threat to Renly's power base. The longer Robb Stark resists Renly the more his ideas of breaking up the Seven Kingdoms would take root. If Renly leaves Robb alone for a year to defeat Tywin (and given the defences Tywin may be able to rely on it could easily take longer) then Robb will have a year to consolidate his state and bed down the ideas of an independent North and Riverlands as well as encouraging the Vale to join them. But after Renly would have taken King's Landing the Northern Kingdom was in shambles. Large swaths of the North were effectively out of his control and he'd lost his lines of communication to the North. A quick strike and some victories could unravel Robb's entire kingdom particularly if the Freys or Boltons decide to defect and a relatively gentle hand could help keep the North in line freeing him up engage the more dug in Lannisters on more favourable terms.

    On the other hand Tywin can gain advantages by attacking the Northerners in the Riverlands. He can free captives Robb holds helping improve his internal politics and if Renly takes a hard line and Robb suffers defeats encourage defections if it appears the choice is allying with the Lannisters or dying fighting Renly. It's quite reasonable to assume that Tywin has a larger army than Robb does in this situation.

  3. On 11/15/2021 at 11:09 PM, Ivashanko said:


    I must be misremembering, wasn't Rob's plan to keep Tywin occupied in the north so the Baratheons' could crush the Lannisters in the south? That's not the worst plan in the world. Tywin would be forced to flee back to his territory and the Baratheons would have no choice but to invade, which would give the North time to prepare and perhaps to make peace.

    That is exactly right and it would have worked in hindsight with Stannis. But the plan would have been made with Renly in mind who is absolutely hostile to Robb. If it goes perfectly Tywin has a large army in the Westerlands and Renly still has his massive Reach and Stormlander Army in King's Landing. Robb Stark is stuck in the middle of two larger armies both hostile to him. Effectively Robb is the same position at the start of ACOK but the armies on his flanks are larger and all he has gained is Harrenhall and some loot and plunder. His only hope is to assume Renly goes after Tywin and Tywin is able to grind him down enough having lost one of the better opportunities to diminish Renly's forces.

  4. Robb Stark's military plan during ACOK. Most of these plans have some tiny slim prospect of improving the situation of the ones initiating the plans. Robb's plan if everything goes exactly as he was planning puts him in a worse military position than he started. It only had the chance of working in his favour at all because of stuff he likely didn't even consider occurring when he was originally making the plan. It works much better in hindsight than it ever could have in foresight.

  5. Robb made many mistakes. His entire grand plan he comes up with during ACOK is when made so stupid it defies belief that anyone could defend it.

    Firstly He should have explicitly told Roose Bolton not to engage Lord Tywin. The eastern Army is a distraction engaging Tywin only risks giving up the goose too early. It almost does but fortunately Tywin is unable to warn Jamie or rush to his aid quickly enough once the engagement informs him of Robb's plan.

    Secondly he should have made some effort to defeat Forley Prester's detachment. That's four thousand men he simply allows to wander home to safety without the slightest effort to intercept a weak force in hostile territory having to make a circuitous march back to safety. Sure perhaps his men were tired but given the disparity in numbers Robb was going to be facing every easy chance to reduce his enemies forces should have been taken. He could have taken a couple of days rest to recover and then set out. His force would be able to move faster and has easier route to take to get ahead of them to ambush them if he so desired.

    Thirdly he places no importance of reclaiming the castles of the Riverlands while the Lannisters of still reeling from the defeats around Riverrun. It's up to Edmure to get him to allow his own lords to reclaim Castles that he should have already been making moves to reclaim. He was perfectly willing to allow the Lannisters to have fortified positions to serve as bases for raiders to harass his supply lines and undermine his base of support as well as limiting his freedom of movement. It's left to individual lords to reclaim them and it goes poorly at least in part because of delays allowing the Lannisters to dig and more coordination to allow vulnerable castles to be retaken by Lannister counter attacks.


    Fourthly he makes no effort to suppress Lannister raiders. When Tywin sent out Raiders Robb should have been thanking him for easy opportunity to weaken his forces. These aren't fast moving columns of horsemen. We see Gregor's on the way back to Harrenhall. It's slow loaded down with pillage and prisoners and delayed by lengthy torture sessions. Lorch's appears to be moving a little quicker but that was likely an outbound run where in good intelligence could let you intercept them as they advance. Tywin was probably dependent on them for necessary supplies and labour to maintain his position at Harrenhall and without them he'd have to adjust his position much sooner while his forces are being weakened by the destruction of foraging parties.

    Fifthly while the attack at Oxcross was a great success and a great idea he shouldn't have lingered a few raids to gather what supplies can be easily acquired to replace destroyed granaries in the RIverlands and then a quick withdrawal but lingering and taking castles make no sense whatsoever. He gains nothing from it and loses men in fighting sieges and to attrition in hostile territory. The plan he has to justify himself staying makes no sense when it was formulated. With Stannis and his relatively weak forces attacking King's Landing it makes sense. It makes none for when it was planned out and Renly would have been attacking. It would only have resulted in a worse strategic position with larger, if mutually hostile, forces on his flanks with less men at his disposal and a slightly better position within the Riverlands. Instead he should have been encouraging Tywin to run off to King's Landing in hopes that the battle would significantly weaken Renly's forces and shift the strategic balance in his favour. Instead he throws his best chance of having his enemies fight each other away in favour of an insane plan with no prospect of success and even success would have been a dangerous double edged sword.

    As for the other stuff (sending Theon to the Iron Islands and getting crowned King in the North). Sending Theon was a mistake and to be honest he shouldn't have even tried to negotiate with Balon at all. The later did limit his ability to court alliances but the options available were all utterly rotten (Renly's useless, Stannis didn't have the support and Joffrey and co weren't an option) but it may have had one small advantage it made him the least important contender politically to eliminate. Without pretences to the Iron throne no one would try to eliminate him first unless they think they may have an opportunity to do so (which Tywin thinks he does particularly once Renly and Stannis start fighting each other). Not much but knowing the other combatants will ignore you in favour of each other is an advantage you can count on.

  6. I'm pretty sure R+L=J is true.  Every other possibility just strikes me as way too unlikely. The details are uncertain and I suspect to a point we'll never find out exactly what happened and why it did for the simple reason that everyone who might have known is dead. Howland Reed is likely the only living soul with even part of the picture and even then he likely doesn't have a clue about why Rhaegar did it. It doesn't appear to be the most intelligent decision but we're missing most of the details so we can't even say what the truth even was.

  7. 14 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

    Technically dany has one of the strongest claims. She is the mother of dragons the last targaryen. 


    Females are allowed to inherit the iron Throne I believe that the first aerys named his niece as his heir. 

    A Strong implicit claim because she can just say proclaim me queen or I burn you alive and most people won't be able to do much about it. Dragons are great at burning your enemies. They don't help you win legal arguments about where you lie in the line of succession. Viserys the First named his daughter Queen. Doesn't stop our 'modern' sources from stating Aegon II was king instead. Equally when Baelor died if females could inherit then Daena should have become queen. Instead the throne went to Viserys II. 

    The Great Council of 101 makes this quite explicit. Rhaenys was quickly excluded from the discussions based on her sex but her son Laenor was considered a strong enough candidate to make it to the final vote. He then lost to Viserys I in the final vote. Establishing by precedent that male decedents of a female line after the male line but before any female in any line. Daenerys has a claim by virtue of having the right last name and for a few die hards that may even be enough but legally she doesn't have a leg to stand on. The Martells have a stronger claim (not clear which Martell since Dornish succession law might include females above them so it could get complicated) than Daenerys.

    Of course what actually happens could be quite different. Legal precedent seems to be meaning less and less in the Seven Kingdoms in the current period.

  8. The problem with legitimacy is that it's all kind of finicky about what is actually the case. Arguably if you accept that Robert had a right to make a legitimate claim (e.g. The Iron Throne can pass through the female line) then the legitimate King wasn't Robert. It was Phillip Plumm. He's got seniority on his side since he can claim descent through Aegon III while Robert can only claim descent through Viserys II and the junior line. This assumes both Aegon is a fake (Very Likely) and that Jon Snow can't prove R+L=J and gather sufficient evidence to prove he's 100% legitimate (Highly Likely he can't but not impossible). 

    The reality is that Legitimacy belongs like power to those people believe have it. As long as Joffrey/ Tommen can convince people they are Robert's sons then they have all the legitimacy they need since Robert was able to convince people sufficiently to accept him as king on paper (possibly using similar logic to remove Viserys as was used to remove Maegor son of Aerion from the line of succession). If Stannis can convince people that Tommen isn't the son of Robert which people appear to taking note of. The High Sparrow makes note of his accusations against Cersei and presents them as charges against her. He would clearly prefer them to be false but even so he does consider the possibility they are true. 

    Daenerys would only be Queen legitimately by forcing dozens of people in front of her to decline their claims or kill them to make herself Queen. Females in the succession of the Iron Throne are right at the back. Behind lines who can claim female descent. If she ends up as Queen it's by force because she has dragons. Technically even Aegon as a Blackfyre could argue he's in front of her in the line of succession.

  9. The entire Bowen Marsh is a awesome great guy and Jon snow is Aerys reborn seems utterly bizarre to me. Sure some of Jon's decisions are unpopular but are they so disastrous to invoke the comparison to the guy who decided blowing up King's Landing was a great idea. If anything the Watch is in a stronger position when Jon is stabbed compared to when he was elected.  Sure he may have technically declared an intent to break his vows. Dubiously. Even Jon isn't sure if what he is doing is breaking his vows and the argument could be made that his desire to go south and have Ramsay Bolton answer for his letter is a reasonable response to a series of insults and treats. Of course this assumes the letter is from Ramsay Bolton and not say Bown Marsh trying to provoke Jon into an act to justify his killing. That would be is Jamie Lannister convinced the Mad King to plant the wildfyre and then killed him over it.

  10. Jamie's problem isn't the killing of Aerys. With all the details its a reasonable if it not ideal solution to the fact that Aerys intended to turn King's Landing into a poor man's Valyria. THe problem is that Jamie then promptly forgot about the rest of the oath he swore. He just sat on the throne not caring what happened next only going after the other alchemists later. He forgot he had oaths to protect Elia, Aegon and Rhaenys who he could have saved for a short while if he tried. The Mountain and Lorch climbed the walls of Maegor's Holdfast they would have at best been lightly armoured. If Jamie had been there doing his duty they might have lived long enough that he could no longer be blamed for their deaths if they occured. Even Jamie can't defend his actions when faced with Rhaegar's shade in his dreams.

    Bowen Marsh on the other hand. Well while he can make an argument that Jon has broken his vows and as such does need to die. You could also make the argument that he hasn't. Ramsay has apparently by all accounts made direct threats against the Night's Watch a breach of its independence. Now while Jon has very much pushed the envelope on that by working with Stannis. That is in the context of cooperation against first the wildlings and later the others once they show up. Jon also has ideas how to help the watch deal with the long list of problems it has to deal with to fight the others. He's brought in some of the wildlings to reinforce the watch and weaken the others and is trying to get more to work with him. He's acquired the lines of credit he'll need to purchase food to sustain the watch on a deal which may be difficult to sustain long term right now is the best option for the Watch. Marsh and his friends. There clueless as to how to move forward. The sheer scale of the difficulties of the watch are such that most would balk at what needed to be done to try and gather the forces needed to fight the others. Jon is trying. Not always successfully but he's trying. By trying to kill him Bowen Marsh is possibly ensuring the Watch will be destroyed either by the now angry Wildings who have them badly outnumbered or the others when they arrive. With little left to try and save the Watch.

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