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The Winged Griffin

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  1. Indeed, we cannot know how any of this has affected his writing. It's all speculation, which in the end proves nothing. But it's never intended to prove anything, because it's ... well, speculation. It's about using what little information we have to establish a theory, an answer to an unanswered question. It ends up being right or it ends up being wrong, it's only an enunciation of a possibility. It's never meant to be definitive, or absolute. You choose to believe it, or you don't, you choose to agree with what I said, or you don't, it's entirely up to you. The choice is yours. And I agree that there are no hidden meaning, GRRM said so himself. But that doesn't mean that there is nothing to be deduced from what he says when he talks about TWOW. What number (however vague it might have been) did he have in mind when he said "a bunch of chapters" ? What PoV did he think of when he wrote "I worked on Braavos last week" ? And above all, it's just for fun, never mind if it's utterly useless. I find that speculating about the writing process of TWOW is actually more interesting than speculating about its actual content. It's been almost ten years and there are only so many new theories we can come up with these days. I like speculating about the writing, and it has become even more interesting since he started giving these little updates. It's not meant to be taken seriously, and we should never take these things seriously, because it leads to problems if we do, as you said. But then again, wether you take it seriously or not is up to you. I am with you on most of what you said, but I think you might have misinterpreted my intentions (or I could just as easily have misinterpreted yours...). I don't mean to provide anything more than just a potential explanation to the situation, and I would happily join any discussion that provides a better clarification/description/justification/whatever you want to call it ! =)
  2. Indeed, he's been very silent recently. In little more than two months, there have already been three 10+ days periods when he didn't blog (10-21st December 2020/22nd January-2nd February 2021/2nd February-now), and between the 22/01 and the 02/02 (23 days !), he has posted only once, for example. The question of wether this is progress-related or grief-related is very complicated. Remember, in november, he said this: So he suffered "gut punches" that slowed his writing progress, but goes on to say that he is getting back on track and is "picking up steam again". However, only three days later, we learn through a post that Kay McCauley died a few days earlier. Then, in December, he posts about another death that has affected him. After that, a long period of silence follows, but then he breaks this long silence by posting this quote, which some have interpreted as him still being on that roll he talked about back in november. A week later, he goes on to say that he is working on Wild Cards. And then, in mid-January, he posts his farewell to Phyllis Eisenstein, who was another of his close friends. But three posts later, he goes completely silent, and 11 days later steps out of the shadows with what he intended as a New Year's Post, in which he says this: Meaning that he was currently rolling at the time this post was written. Was it the same "roll" as the one he talked about in November? Possibly! Only then, he goes back to complete silence for what has now been 12 consecutive days. He did say that he had a few other friends and loved ones who were in serious condition, and that more losses may be to come. Perhaps that's why he hasn't posted recently. Or perhaps he saw some of the extreme reactions that followed his last update, and it weighed him down, similarly to how the reaction to his performance as Hugo toastmaster back in August was suspected by many to have been one of the "gut punches" that slowed him down. So on one hand, seems that he's suffered grievous losses, more gut punches, and all happened in a very quick succession, which might explain his long silences. But on the other hand, there have been indications that he was still writing quite consistently over the past few months, despite all these blows. Are these long periods of no posts due to the fact that he lost relatives recently, or due to him being so deep in writing tht he no longer cares to post anything on NaB? I think both these factors may have played a role in this, but I would tend to favor the sadder, not-cool option, just so I'm not disappointed when we'll know for sure. He said in his last update that he would post about everything he's been working on, including TWOW, and I cannot wait for this post ! Perhaps we'll even hear about these prequel shows from the man himself ? Or D&E news?
  3. Comparatively, I find that this past year was very rich in terms of "news" (if that's what they can be called). He mentioned progress several times, we can accurately draw a listof the POVs he's been working on, and even a vague number of MPs written, which is more than anything we've gotten since 2015 and the end of that 5-year-period you're talking about.
  4. So was I, but in the end it makes little difference. Well in the end I feel like the concept of completion percentage is closely related to a finalized MPs number, even though it's not true, hence why it would be dangerous to give a MP number.
  5. He doesn't know himself how long it will be, we've seen it plain countless times now, and it's understandable: If he has say, only 200 pages left he might feel confident, but the next day, when writing these pages he might realize that he didn't properly set up a particular plot point, which then means he has to go back in his finished pages and revise everything. Or perhaps he gets an even better idea than what was already written and modifies his pages again. That's what "It'll be done when it's done" means : It's impossible to give any reliable and exact progress estimates, because they might be invalidated at any moment after they are made. So until everything is finished, nothing is finished.
  6. We've seen with Dance that the number of completed pages is very often not definitive, and it hypes people even though the book is still months or even years from being released. And at this point, it seems like anything GRRM says triggers almost everyone, and I can already imagine the amount of complaints that would emerge if he revealed a page count. Having a page count would be cool, though, but anyone who thinks we're going to have one before the release of TWOW is fooling themselves, imo.
  7. They really need to be published simultaneously , or near enough, because otherwise, George might feel the second volume isn't as perfect as he thought and he ends up embarking on a massive rewrite that would cost another 2-3 years... But it looks like he's going to write until he reaches that "satisfactory conclusion", even if it ends up being way past the 1500 MP mark. But once he reaches that conclusion, the manuscript will be ready and completed, and it might then be cut in two volumes, so if the two volumes have different release dates, I think it'll be for marketing and practical reasons.
  8. That's actually cool idea ! It would allow him to bring back an old title that he abandoned for the (much better) A Dream of Spring, while avoiding the unartistic Volume 1&2 . And we've all seen with A Dance With Dragons that the titles don't really refer to the content of the book anymore.
  9. If he takes more time to deliver a book that would be around 1.5-2x larger than expected, that would definitely be a good surprise imo. If it takes only a few more months, then it's clearly bearable compared to the ten freaking years some fans have spent waiting. That was my understanding of his last update as well: as long as he hasn't finished writing what he wanted to include in Winds, he won't publish anything and will just keep writing... And he still technically hasn't finished the Dance he envisioned when he finished Storm. Which means there's a good chance that the book is going to be so massive that it'll require to be cut and published in two separate parts. If Winds ends up being released in just one volume, I fear the story might feel a little rushed for the sake of fitting inside one single book, although I'm certain our author could manage that (he is after all the man who wrote ASOS). WRT where Dance should've ended, I think cutting the battle of Meereen in the middle would've been even worse than not including it. The battle of Fire was meant to be the payoff of an entire book of buildup, so it stands to reason that it should have been included at the end of the book, in its entirety. The same goes for the battle of Ice, which had the same amount of buildup in Dance.
  10. I think it's looking increasingly likely that the magic 1500 MP limit may not actually be a limit anymore. He said in his last update that he still needs to write more pages until he reaches a satisfactory conclusion, which can be interpreted as him telling us that he has, or at least plans to have more than 1500 MPs before the book is done. He certainly isn't going to make the same mistakes that he did in 2011 with ADWD, when he cut large sequences and many chapters because the book "couldn't fit" with more than 1500 pages. He is going to write until he reaches that satisfactory conclusion, and if it comes after 1800 or even 2000+ pages, then so be it. If he keeps giving more indications that he's going in that direction, I think we're in for a two-volumes TWOW.
  11. I am also wondering wether this sentence means that he already has, or at least plans to have more than 1500 MPs for this book:
  12. I was actually surprised by the hundreds of pages because I never expected him to write hundreds and hundreds of pages in one year, and also because I never thought he'd say that. The most subtantial thing we've had in recent years regarding progress update on TWOW is the general "made good progress" or, more recently, a number of chapters completed. But I never expected him to talk about how many pages he wrote, however vague he is.
  13. He has to be at least above the halfway mark, because hundreds and hundreds is more than just hundreds. So it means that he has written more than what he has left to write imo, hence why I personally believe that he's at least above 750 MP (or more if the book ends up being more than 1500 MP long).
  14. From GRRM's latest blog post: Reflections on a Bad Year Any constructive estimates on how many MPs we now think he has completed for TWOW?
  15. Tyrion doesn't need to be in Daenerys's confidence to tell her that Aegon has launched an invasion. All he needs is 5 minutes with her, and even if she doesn't initially plan to attack Westeros, the idea will have been planted by Tyrion, and indeed people like Marwyn (and Barristan if he survives that long) will make it grow until she has no other choice but to accept that she must go back to Westeros. But of course it all depends on how the situation in Slaver's Bay is going to be resolved. I also think that George knows he doesn't have as much time left to finish ASOIAF as he'd like, and that's maybe part of why TWOW is so late, beside the fact that there are many POVs meeting, many different storylines etc... He is trying to get it all to fit the two books mark that he fixed. Or at least he has tried for a time, and maybe he finally decided to change his plans, but if more books were to be planned before ADOS, I feel like he'd already have told us, because he'd have to announce it anyway when TWOW comes out so why delay the inevitable? But yes I definitely agree with you: The series cannot be wrapped up in two books.
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