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The Winged Griffin

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  1. Perhaps he'll release TWOW in the form of two books, with around 50-60 chapters each, IF he goes the AFFC-ADWD road in terms of chapter length and amount of descriptions. However, he might still actually be sticking to the original plan and release TWOW in the form of one huuuge mammoth book with around 90 chapters (maybe) IF he decides to go the ASOS road in terms of utilitarianism (does that word even exist?) in his chapters, meaning less lavish description, more plot progression. Most of the sample chapters seem to show given their current state that the most likely/feasible solution is option 1, but we have to keep in mind that all the sample chapters were originally written to be included in ADWD, hence why some of them are still very slow-paced and descriptive. But it looks like George is still intending to go with option 2 (as per the original plan for TWOW), unfortunately meaning that the sample chapters are in for a major overhaul, or rewrite, or in the worst case scenario, deletion/combination. We know from George's last TWOW update that he is rewriting/revising sample chapters, meaning that he either needs to adjust them to his recent progress, or that he's cutting material and "trimming the fat" so that the story can fit in one single giant book.
  2. I am currently going through his NaB posts from 2006-07-08, and he constantly says that "it'll be done by the end of the year" or "I hope to finsih by June"... Him thinking he was close to finishing in 2015 isn't new at all. In fact he's always been very optimistic, and in the end, a very similar situation happened with ADWD, only it happened multiple times. Some of us think something terrible happened that made him start from scratch or something along those lines only because he hasn't given us any substantial TWOW update since then. Until now.
  3. At this point I think he must have a lot more than 1500 pages, and that's what's problematic : he has to decide what to keep and what to scrap, what to rewrite and what to move to ADOS. We've seen from his recent blog updates that he still writes altogether new chapters, but also "tweaks and revises old ones". I think it means that he has written way too much material for some PoVs, but has only just started writing others. so one hand, he has to make sacrifices for some storylines in order for them to fit in one single book, but on the other hand, he still has a few/many chapters left to write for other storylines (my guess would be Oldtown- Jaime/Brienne - Alayne storylines). I think George is definitely on a near-final round of editing because he's recently been shifting between no less than 9 different PoVs in less than 4 months (!), and many have nothing to do with each other in terms of storylines, locations, etc... (ex: Melisandre and Tyrion, or Arya/Asha/Areoh), but he still has more material left to write for other PoVs, hence why he still seems to be rewriting/revising Arya chapters after all these years, despite him having sent "all her chapters" to the guy who was in charge of drawing the Braavos map in The Lands of Ice and Fire (My theory is that he is currently working on Jaime/Brienne chapters, which involve LSH and maybe Arya, so he has to revise the early Arya chapters).
  4. Definitely not. George has said multiple times that he would write Dream. And if he had decided to abandon ADOS, what would be the point of writing Winds? I think abandoning Dream but writing Winds nonetheless makes absolutely no sense. And if he decides to abandon the books, he would tell us immediately. Which means that for the time being, he still means to proceed with writing Dream after Winds. However your scenario isn't all that unlikely because Dream might probably not be finished anyway, regardless of wether he abandons it or not.
  5. I don't know if gut punches can be qualified as " writer's block", maybe he did have many ideas, but he didn't have the heart to put them on paper due to these gut punches he mentions... And we have a kind of confirmation that he was also revising older chapters back in July and August, when he mentioned visiting many (many) different PoVs , such as Melisandre, Victarion, Asha, Cersei, Tyrion, Areoh, Sam,... All in the span of just 3-4 months. Maybe that means he has (at least partly) finished their stories and he's doing a final round of editing before finishing the other storylines ? Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but it feels like TWOW in 2021 does seem ever likely...
  6. For those who didn't see it yet: GRRM updated his progress on The Winds of Winter ! Quite a meaty update! He also mentions progress with House of the Dragons. https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/ This quote is particularly encouraging I think :
  7. Yeah but at some point I think there were even (worthless) newspaper articles written, and he'd have to be really very well isolated in order to be able to avoid everything that was said about him and his book lately. But I really hope he's not in situation 1) right now that would be so frustrating for everyone, him most of all given that he's been struggling with the same problems for nearly a decade.
  8. I can't help but think that we got too excited by these frequent updates, so now GRRM doesn't update us anymore. People got way too excited and immediately thought Winds was going to be announced soon just based on the fact that he mentioned progress on the writing three times in three months, and it frustrated him.
  9. I think (or is it wishful thinking?) that Dream will be faster to write because he knows where,how and when the story for each character ends, so at least a decent chunk of the book will have already been kinda planned/outlined in his head. TWOW has to get all the characters in the right position for the finale, bring them back together, so that creates a lot of Meereenese knots, etc... ADOS won't have that, since the story will have already been condensed back together again in Winds (kind of).
  10. Yes but I don't think anyone other than himself is to blame... As he said himself, it's on him, and him only. Of course, he would probably be done by now if it weren't for the huge amount of stress that such a work must give him (and the occasional angry fan criticizing him for his writing speed), and I understand why it takes so long. I just hope that after TWOW is published, we'll get to learn what went wrong and why...
  11. I've always thought that the probability of an event happening only increases (as long as we know it will happen anywayas time passes. TWOW hasn't been announced in nearly ten years (and I am pretty convinced that it will be published one day), which makes the probability of an announcement ever more likely. TWOW already had around 100-200 MP even before he started writing the book. And we know he's making frequent progress, and that there are already at least 30+ chapters that he has pretty much finished/ that are in a mostly publishable form, or need minor polishing. That we know of. So unless he's been doing a major rewrite (many speculate that's what happened after his 2016 mega-update), there is a good chance that in terms of chapters, he is already at least halfway through the book. And he doesn't tell his fans everything. There's obviously more chapters that we don't know about. So yeah, TWOW in 2021 could be a thing. And if not, then 2022 is even more likely than any other date, because it would coincide with House of the Dragon airing, which would boost success for both the show and the book. Might be he'll set himself that deadline if he can't finish TWOW by 2021. Fingers crossed, we'll have The Winds of Winter in hand when the pandemic will finally recede...
  12. I've always believed that the purpose of the Others was to draw a parallel with our reality . We all face global warming,no matter where and who we are, and it is an existential threat to humanity itself. Only by banding together and "fighting the enemy" can we defeat it. AGOT came out in 1996, when it was still massively ignored, but now, in 2020, it's become more relevant than ever, and GRRM is still building up the threat posed by the Others. I've always felt that he created the Others to make us reflect on global warming.
  13. "The Horned Lord once said that sorcery is a sword without a hilt, there is no safe way to grasp it." - Dalla in Jon X, ASOS. Clearly magic in Asoiaf doesn't seem to follow any rules (except maybe that "A great gift requires a great sacrifice"), and is unpredictable and dangerous. It's not like there was a Hogwarts-like school of magic or a college similar to the one in Skyrim. I've come to understand that apart from the fact that any magic requires some sort of sacrifice beforehand, there are no "rules" for magic users to stick to in ASOIAF.
  14. Yeah this Black wedding theory seems most... original.
  15. What notes are these? A collection of theories? fan-fictions ? I'd be really curious to know about them!
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