Groo

Let's add "Why is this FM still hanging around all these years?" to the list.

People like to point out that Ghost seems to like Val. Of course Ghost also seems to like Melisandre. Using Ghost as the benchmark then clearly Jon should be with Sam since Ghost went to town licking Sam's face during an intimate heart-to-heart between Jon and Sam.

Things were going poorly for the Riverlands but that's not the same thing as the "Riverlands have already fallen". You can put these in any order that you like but here are some of the many factors that could have gone into the decision. The Freys are supposed to be supporting their liege. Robb has an army that might easily make a difference in the war. If they said no then Robb's army might have raided the Frey lands and attacked the Twins. The Freys are in position to negotiate a high price from Robb. At this point the Freys aren't in a position to negotiate much from the Lannisters. The Tully/Stark/Arryn alliance was strong enough to take down the Targaryens. At this point it isn't clear to anyone why Lysa is resisting joining the cause but as far as anyone knows it could quickly turn into a Tully/Stark/Arryn war against just the Lannisters. So far it's just a war against the Lannisters with no reason to think any of the other great houses would suddenly join the Lannister cause. In fact, as events initially unfolded no one did. Shortly after the Freys joined with Robb the Lannisters were facing Renly and the Tyrells, an ironborn revolt, and a successful North/Riverlands alliance. The Freys are calculating and usually cautious but with so many ambitious sons and grandsons there had to be some internal pressure to not just sit out the whole war. It's only because of all of the unexpected events of the War of the Five Kings that the Freys alliance with Robb seemed problematic.

Fair points.

The original post was asking for Robb's best option for survival. Not getting murdered by the Freys is obviously a good start (tongue firmly in cheek) but the Riverlands was going to be a major problem for him. He can't really win from there (not without more allies) but he could definitely lose if he's forced to keep fighting there. I'm not sure cutting the Riverlands loose and just sticking with the North was actually an option.

Where are you getting this 7 men number from? Beric Dondarrion and his men were ambushed at the Mummer's Ford by way more than 7 men. When Tywin leaves Harrenhal Gregor has three hundred cavalry under his command.

I agree that the Vale on their side would have changed things and normally they would have good reason to expect the daughter of Hoster Tully to join their cause. The problem is the Blackfish had already quit the Vale in disgust because Lysa wouldn't support her family and Catelyn couldn't get her to do it either. They were surprised and confused but before Robb was crowned they already knew the Vale wasn't on their side.

What's the goal -- destroy the Freys, reunite with the North, return the Tullys to Riverrun, something else? The campaign depends on your goal. For example, a serious guerilla war against just the Freys might be enough to show the Iron Throne that the Freys can't keep control of the Riverlands, potentially setting up a return for Edmure if he's willing to bend the knee to the Iron Throne and bring order back to the Riverlands. That wouldn't reunite the Riverlands with the North, of course, or even necessarily result in the destruction of the Freys but it has a chance of restoring the Tullys. I'm not advocating this particular scenario just using it as an example of needing to have a defined goal before mapping out a strategy.

If you want to be harsh then Robb was already in deep trouble the moment he accepted being king of the Riverlands. The Riverlands are surrounded by the Vale, the Crownlands, the Reach, and the Westerlands. Whoever sits the Iron Throne is eventually going to crush an independent Riverlands. With the geography of the Neck, the North could attempt to be independent but not the Riverlands.

Wait. There's a theory that the Quentyn who went to Danny was an imposter? Um, what if this Quentyn had succeeded? What kind of manipulation of the Yronwoods would be worth that risk? And what is gained with the suicide mission? Is Doran eventually going to produce the real Quentyn and tell the Yronwoods they've been lied to for over a decade? I'll stop now. The questions are endless.

But is Doran holding them back because he doesn't want war? He does want "fire and blood" after all. He's trying to make sure he has a winning hand before he plays but he definitely wants to play. I think the downfall will come because he thinks he's just setting up his hand and can still back out but the truth is he's already entered the game.

Remember that most of the Stormlands went for Renly and his initial alliance was so large because it was the Reach and the Stormlands united. Mace wouldn't have had that on his own. Later, Joffrey meant an alliance with the Lannisters and the Westerlands. Mace wouldn't have had that on his own either. Geography matters too. An alliance between the North and Dorne, for example, isn't that useful for either. They're too far apart to easily support each other. Mace's alliances have been with powerful neighbors where mutual support is realistic and adds to their strength.

That's an excellent an example. Better than the ones I was thinking about.

Cersei was already risking war with Dorne by plotting to have Trystane killed and she's generally paranoid. When she hears about the Martells sending Quentyn to Daenarys she's going to act quickly. She'll probably try to move against the Sand Snakes before jumping straight to war but I don't see how war is going to be avoided. Doran is playing with fire in more ways than one. Sending Quentyn to Daenerys and Arianne to fAegon sends a clear message to the rest of the world. It says Dorne is going to support a Targaryen restoration. Doran might not think he's committed yet but that's how the rest of the world is going to interpret it.

It's not about dragons but there are two other instances that come quickly to mind. Rodrik Harlaw trying to discuss a book with Asha and then Roose Bolton looking through a book and then burning it. I suppose we could consider Sam reading all the books Castle Black but that seems too general to be a "test".