Mourning Star

Out of what 19? That's like a 1/4 of them! We only know what we've been told, in my opinion that cuts both ways.

Bran closed his eyes. It was too cold to talk, and they dare not light a fire. Coldhands had warned them against that. These woods are not as empty as you think, he had said. You cannot know what the light might summon from the darkness. The memory made him shiver, despite the warmth of Hodor beside him. Sleep would not come, could not come. Instead there was wind, the biting cold, moonlight on snow, and fire. He was back inside Summer, long leagues away, and the night was rank with the smell of blood. The scent was strong. A kill, not far. The flesh would still be warm. Slaver ran between his teeth as the hunger woke inside him. Not elk. Not deer. Not this. Obviously, Bran's initial dream meant that Jon forgot Hodor's birthday. (/s) Jon shook his head. "No one. The castle is always empty." He had never told anyone of the dream, and he did not understand why he was telling Sam now, yet somehow it felt good to talk of it. "Even the ravens are gone from the rookery, and the stables are full of bones. That always scares me. I start to run then, throwing open doors, climbing the tower three steps at a time, screaming for someone, for anyone. And then I find myself in front of the door to the crypts. It's black inside, and I can see the steps spiraling down. Somehow I know I have to go down there, but I don't want to. I'm afraid of what might be waiting for me. The old Kings of Winter are down there, sitting on their thrones with stone wolves at their feet and iron swords across their laps, but it's not them I'm afraid of. I scream that I'm not a Stark, that this isn't my place, but it's no good, I have to go anyway, so I start down, feeling the walls as I descend, with no torch to light the way. It gets darker and darker, until I want to scream." He stopped, frowning, embarrassed. "That's when I always wake." His skin cold and clammy, shivering in the darkness of his cell. Ghost would leap up beside him, his warmth as comforting as daybreak. He would go back to sleep with his face pressed into the direwolf's shaggy white fur. In more seriousness, I think Ghost is the warm memory which Jon may lose.

Olenna's comment is certainly what inspired my comparison. "Gallant, yes, and charming, and very clean. He knew how to dress and he knew how to smile and he knew how to bathe, and somehow he got the notion that this made him fit to be king. The Baratheons have always had some queer notions, to be sure. It comes from their Targaryen blood, I should think." She sniffed. "They tried to marry me to a Targaryen once, but I soon put an end to that."

Yes and no. The war began because Jon Arryn wouldn't hand over Ned's and Robert's heads. It's clear Robert hated the "dragonspawn," but it's less clear if he'd have killed children himself. I actually really like this ambiguity from a story telling perspective. It doesn't seem like Robert's normal nature to take vengeance on children, he notoriously forgave lords who warred against him, but when it came to the Targaryens, particularly Rhaegar, he saw red. Ned did not feign surprise; Robert's hatred of the Targaryens was a madness in him. He remembered the angry words they had exchanged when Tywin Lannister had presented Robert with the corpses of Rhaegar's wife and children as a token of fealty. Ned had named that murder; Robert called it war. When he had protested that the young prince and princess were no more than babes, his new-made king had replied, "I see no babes. Only dragonspawn." Not even Jon Arryn had been able to calm that storm. Eddard Stark had ridden out that very day in a cold rage, to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south. It had taken another death to reconcile them; Lyanna's death, and the grief they had shared over her passing. I feel like Robert mostly looks the other way here, calls it war not murder, even if he should know it was wrong, and probably does deep down. I doubt he smiled. "Prince Rhaegar had two children," Ser Barristan told him. "Rhaenys was a little girl, Aegon a babe in arms. When Tywin Lannister took King's Landing, his men killed both of them. He served the bloody bodies up in crimson cloaks, a gift for the new king." And what did Robert say when he saw them? Did he smile? Barristan Selmy had been badly wounded on the Trident, so he had been spared the sight of Lord Tywin's gift, but oft he wondered. If I had seen him smile over the red ruins of Rhaegar's children, no army on this earth could have stopped me from killing him. "I will not suffer the murder of children. Accept that, or I'll have no part of this." For years Robert listened to Jon Arryn and sent no Usurper's Knives after Viserys and Dany, and in the end he admits to it being wrong to send the wine merchant after Dany. "The girl. Daenerys. Only a child, you were right … that's why, the girl … the gods sent the boar … sent to punish me …" The king coughed, bringing up blood. "Wrong, it was wrong, I … only a girl … Varys, Littlefinger, even my brother … worthless … no one to tell me no but you, Ned … only you …"

Aegon V's son... in retrospect that was extremely unclear, lol

In a kind of shallow sense, Daeron Targaryen. In fairness, I think a big part of ASoIaF is reusing archetypes/patterns in slightly different ways. This applies to characters and plotlines. In my personal opinion, this is at times a great strength and at others seems a little weak, but I do think it's intentional. "The dragon is time. It has no beginning and no ending, so all things come round again. Anders Yronwood is Criston Cole reborn. He whispers in my brother's ear that he should rule after my father, that it is not right for men to kneel to women . . . that Arianne especially is unfit to rule, being the willful wanton that she is." She tossed her hair defiantly. "So your two princesses share a common cause, ser . . . and they share as well a knight who claims to love them both, but will not fight for them."

He says he has though... I sit on that damnable iron chair and listen to them complain until my mind is numb and my ass is raw. I'm inclined to agree.

Syrio and Jaqen Hagar were the same man. Mance Rayder sent the Catspaw Assassin to kill Bran. Bloodraven is not the three eyed crow. Dany is not the daughter of Aerys and Rhaella.

Great question. Someone always tells. If the house with the red door was in Dorne, I wouldn't be surprised to find that the Martells were involved. Especially since we are told Oberyn went to Braavos to negotiate the marriage pact with Viserys (which doesn't mention Dany) and Dany remembers sailing into Braavos. If I'm really feeling wildly speculative, I think the idea that Darkstar knows about these events, and that's what makes him the most dangerous man in Dorne, is interesting. Did Drogo care that she was a Targaryen or just that she looked like a Valyrian princess? Unclear to me. I'm not sure that Dany had to be a Targaryen to be sold. But I do think it's worth noting that Dany being Rhaegar's sister instead of his daughter does change her position in the line of succession, especially in relation to Viserys. I don't think it's clear what Ned knew or assumed. We don't get many direct thoughts of his in this regard except for the repeated objection to killing children, paralleled to both Cersei in the "bitter cup" of exile conversation, and to Rhaegar's children. To what end? Varys and Illyrio, judging by the conversation Arya overhears, intended to see Ned removed from power. Blackmailing a man like Ned doesn't seem like a great plan to me either, but it's all hypothetical. We can only speculate about why characters don't do things they don't do in the story, and I'm not sure there's much value in it. I don't think it's convincing to hand wave away the repeated lemon tree discrepancy. I don't think these were written for no reason. I also think I'm providing a much more coherent explanation for what Dany sees in the House of the Undying. But, everyone is entitled to make up their own opinion. I don't know what you mean by countered. The discrepancies exist, you can try and provide other explanations, like sloppy writing if you want, but I don't think they are more convincing than assuming what was written was intentional. If it was intentional, then there was a reason. Any one discrepancy is easy to dismiss, that there are multiple small inconsistencies is, I believe, for the benefit of the reader, and evidence of Viserys dishonesty. I disagree about the Stark characterizations of Dany. She is a natural rider without training on a Stark colored horse (her silver), and is described like a centaur. She wears Stark colors with flowers in her hair. It's not the darkness described as howling, it's Dany... the devil is in the details. Dragons are never described as howling, wolves repeatedly are. The red door was so far ahead of her, and she could feel the icy breath behind, sweeping up on her. If it caught her she would die a death that was more than death, howling forever alone in the darkness. The shadows Dany sees in the tent of Mirri: She glimpsed the shadow of a great wolf, and another like a man wreathed in flames. Etc. etc. etc... Off in the distance, a wolf howled. The sound made her feel sad and lonely Do you have any textual evidence for the claim that Aerys ignored prophesy, or his intents? Which led him to learning to use a sword, and he died in a swordfight. Do you have a quote from the books to support this claim? The Ghost of High Heart makes a prophesy about bloodline leading to the prince who was promised, so in this case it seems to me to be directly relevant to the return of dragons. Rhaegar is talking about his children here and looks at Dany. I like this next little connection as well, although I don't expect everyone else to find it compelling. Rhaegar's quote above is the equivalent of Star Wars' "There is another", which is a reference to Luke and Leia. Luke also sees a vision of his own face in Vader's black armored helmet, Vader is his father. And saw her brother Rhaegar, mounted on a stallion as black as his armor. Fire glimmered red through the narrow eye slit of his helm. "The last dragon," Ser Jorah's voice whispered faintly. "The last, the last." Dany lifted his polished black visor. The face within was her own.

Aerys and Rahella were seeming wed with the intent to bring about the Prince who was Promised. Jaehaerys and Shaera would have two children, Aerys and Rhaella. On the word of Jenny of Oldstone's woods witch, Prince Jaehaerys determined to wed Aerys to Rhaella, or so the accounts from his court tell us. King Aegon washed his hands of it in frustration, letting the prince have his way. I think you are confusing what I believe with what I'm saying character's believe, sorry if I have not been clear. Character's in the story believe a prophesy bout a Prince who was Promised, I'm not referring to anyone as a singular savior of humanity I personally believe in. I'm saying that I don't expect kings chasing prophesies to get the results they intended. If Aegon conquered Westeros based on a dream, that's never been mentioned in the books. I agree that who parents are does not have to determine who children are, but it plays a very large part. And this is true both of parents by blood and by action. Please show me the quote where Rhaegar foresees a child with Lyanna, I think readers fill this into the blanks, but it is not the only explanation for what we've read. That's a take. Do you think he planned on a bastard son to parallel Aegon's bastard brother Baratheon too? Clearly I disagree. So you are selectively talking about things that appear later in the story... ok... This is called a strawman argument and it is obviously in bad faith. She spent a few years in the House with the Red Door, then was taken to travel Essos from court to court with Viserys. Ned goes to King's Landing for the first time since the rebellion in the story. The "card" of sending assassins after Dany is used, and causes Ned to resign. It is only after Varys says the birds have already flown and he may not be able to stop the assassination attempt that Ned thinks of "broken promises". And I don't find the handwaving away of the house with the red door, lemon tree, discrepancies in Viserys's story, visions in the House of the Undying, and Dany's Stark characterizations to be convincing. To each their own.

Of course it's teenage rebellion, but all acts of rebellion are not the same. Sansa, is a kid, and this comes with all the associated responsibility on the part of her parents and sympathy from the audience. In my opinion, it does not entirely absolve the child of responsibility for their actions. I think it's no coincidence that Sansa's wolf is killed because she refused to tell the truth on the Trident, and her ending up in the Lannister clutches of her own volition during the coup.

So we disagree about what betrayal does or does not necessarily imply. Seems like the guards at the ship are caused by Sansa telling Cersei Ned's plans, but it doesn't really matter. You are disputing the common definition of a word, enjoy. To his credit he never sought to put the blame on anyone. We as readers can se the course of events more clearly, and in my opinion it's his faith in Cat's misplaced trust in Littlefinger that directly results in his downfall. You are entitled to disagree. There are different kinds of strength. Hopefully one day we find out.

We don’t know if there were really ice spiders or not. We do know Others and Children exist. Every detail of a story doesn’t need to be true for there to be truth behind the myth. Cleftjaw is a nice example, fearsome raider, big nasty scar, didn’t literally put his head back together.

Her tales are tales, not factual accounts of history, but they are all full of truth and wisdom. Old Nan is a Targaryen, Aemon’s sister if I had to guess. "Dragons," she said, lifting her head and sniffing. She was near blind and could not see the comet, yet she claimed she could smell it. "It be dragons, boy," she insisted. Bran got no princes from Nan, no more than he ever had. Compare that to Aemon: "I see them in my dreams, Sam. I see a red star bleeding in the sky. I still remember red. I see their shadows on the snow, hear the crack of leathern wings, feel their hot breath. My brothers dreamed of dragons too, and the dreams killed them, every one. Sam, we tremble on the cusp of half-remembered prophecies, of wonders and terrors that no man now living could hope to comprehend . . . or . . ."

I would be absolutely shocked if the conclusion of this story is that Aerys successfully brought humanity’s savior into being by raping his sister wife. That’s not compelling to me, it’s crazy. This idea is older than Feast and starts with Dany’s first chapter being so suspicious. These theories themselves are usually referred to collectively as Lemongate, since lemons don’t grow in Braavos, a details that’s been repeated in the series, begins before Feast, and usually forces deniers to hand wave it away or make lame excuses. If you are going to strawman, do better

Joke, don’t worry about it. Of course it is. Why do you find these contradictory. Peoples choices matter but their situation is largely determined by who their parents are. I disagree with this though. After all it’s not just her choices, but Aerys’s choices. And justifying the rape of his sister wife is a tough sell for me. This is what I mean about missing the forest for the trees. The ends justify the means is a seductive argument, but I think it’s pretty clearly going to be condemned by the story. I mean you know where the series got it’s name right? Some say the world will end in fire, Some say in ice. From what I’ve tasted of desire I hold with those who favor fire. But if it had to perish twice, I think I know enough of hate To say that for destruction ice Is also great And would suffice. The Frost poem makes the ice/hate and fire/desire parallel we see reflected repeatedly in the series. If love and hate can mate… And the poem is a direct reference to Dante. Never hope to see heaven: I come to carry you to the other shore, into eternal darkness, into fire and ice. The series began, like Dante, in a dark wood were the easy way was lost. Dante of course ends with: but my desire and will were moved already — like a wheel revolving uniformly — by the Love that moves the sun and the other stars. Well, blood sacrifice is probably not great in general. I think you are missing the point of the storytelling with the constant hypotheticals. Using monsters, be they dragons or Others, against humanity is bad, no matter your motive. Slavery is bad. Enslaving the dragons isn’t good either. She is the mother of dragons, and dragons eat innocent little girls. I think you are highlighting more mistakes Dany will make before the end. But again, it’s a story, there is merit to showing the ups and the downs, it’s not about roads not taken (another Frost poem!). You think her portrayal at the end of Dance was her finding herself? Shitting her brains out? Just wild stuff… she’s still lost. To start, you do not kill children. Justice is not the same as vengeance. You need to better understand the Others. I would be shocked if the source/cause of their return isn’t a human, like Dany brought dragons back into the world. This is addressed in the story. Mercy is not the same as absolving all crimes. Justice is not the same as vengeance. Mercy is forgiving personal wrongs, the crucial step in stopping the cycle of violence. “Divine justice” has a lot of implications I don’t think apply here. But story telling justice, sure. I think you are wrong about the House with the red door. Ya I really do t see it. Home is Westeros for Dany, always has been. I would be shocked if Dany is alive at the end of the story…

That’s ok, the story isn’t finished yet, and we are all entitled to our own opinions. Ned’s dead baby. Sounds like we see things differently. I really doubt she’s the mad king’s incest rape baby. Hopefully one day we find out. Oh ya, we really disagree here. The idea that dragons are some key to salvation is a pipe dream. These things are forces of suffering and ruin, just like the Others. This really doesn’t seem like a story about how we need good guys with nuclear weapons. This is accomplished through forgiveness and mercy. I’m convinced the moral of this story will be closer to make love not war than the ends justify the means. Hey! We agree! You will likely get both payoffs I suspect. That’s a take, just deny the House with the Red Door exists at all. “Lemons aren’t real!” Just isn’t a convincing case in my opinion, lol. The raping pillaging Dothraki? You want her to end up where she was sold off in the very first chapters? Ah well, hopefully one day we find out!

I disagree. Her telling Cersei about the ship waiting to take them to Winterfell almost results in Arya getting caught. Never claimed she killed him, just betrayed him, which I don’t really think is up for dispute. Ned’s one man in a thousand. Ned trusted Cat when it came to Littlefinger. That was what got him killed. There is no promise of a material reward for being a good man. I think the original outlines show Sansa was not originally a big character, and was supposed to have Joffrey’s kid, but her role has clearly changed with the telling. Although she’s basically been a pawn up until this point, I think we all hope she takes on a more active role.

Illyrio saw value in them. But only Drogo saw Dany as a valuable bride? I don’t think it makes much sense. Aurane’s hidden fleet isn’t a conspiracy theory. We see that ships change hands in the story… if I’m going to be conspiratorial I’d suggest that the Targaryen Fleet formed the basis for Salla’s painted fleet. I think the repeated falsehoods, like the literary clues, are for the benefit of the reader. He wed Elia long before Dany was born. What about the decedents of Egg’s sisters? This is never mentioned in the main series, although it does seem to be the case in the world book, although only after Rhaegar’s death when Aerys thought Dorne betrayed him. The Kingsguard in the story don’t seem to have believed Viserys was the heir. Would it? Again seems like a silly hypothetical. Had I not taken the precaution of posting guards upon her door, Viserys might have undone years of planning." They are though… as we see from Illyrio. But the author has reason to leave the reader clues. So you’re saying Ned might have reason to trust her?

It is said that, every seventy-seven years, a storm greater than all others comes howling down upon Storm's End, as the old gods of sea and sky try once more to blow Durran's seat into the sea. It is a pretty tale...but a tale is all it is. The records of the maesters of Storm's End show that there are fierce storms nearly every year, especially in autumn, and whilst some are greater than others, there are no records that show unusually powerful storms seventy-seven years apart. The greatest storm in living memory was in 221 AC, in the last year of the reign of Aerys I, and the greatest before that was the storm of 166 AC, fifty-five years earlier. Maegor already had that title! She does exist, and she is called by that title. Oh I agree that Viserys is an important character, I just don’t agree on the assessment of the meaning of the story. Characterization is great, I love it, but it’s clear Viserys did tell Dany things that were untrue, so you need to work that into the characterization. Viserys isn’t the mastermind of any scheme, that’s pretty clear. But that he would sell Dany to the Dothraki is also clear. Is there some other lie Viserys gives away while drunk you could use to support your point (I don’t remember one), that’s the sort of evidence that supports a theory. I don’t believe Joffrey sent the Catspaw. So you agree she’s characterized as a Stark… "I am not without mercy," thundered he who was notoriously without mercy. A lot of tangents here, I’m getting bored, mostly I love this quote. Counterpoint, it calls into question all three parentages. The three original POVs who aren’t Ned, Cat, or their children. I think there is a lot more of a connection to slavery than freedom when it comes to dragons. So Dany commanding a dragon to burn a man alive represents freedom? The Last Hero is another tangent I’m not going to address here. This expression means focusing on one part to the point where you miss the bigger picture. I think the idea that the message to take away from this story is that fire and blood is the answer not peace and love is missing the meaning of the larger story. Aemon isn’t right about everything, highlighted by the very section where he gives Jon this advice he once gave Egg. I don’t think it’s good advice. Be like Ned, do what’s right!

The one time we see Viserys call Dany, “Dany”, is when he pleads for his life before he dies. Usually it’s just “sweet sister.” Give me sweet lies, and keep your bitter truths. He drank his wine Once again the sweet/bitter, fire/ice, lies/truths, female/male, light/dark, symbolism abounds and is worth noting throughout the story. Or Viserys was lied too. There is good reason to hide a stolen fleet, or a dragonspawn. Depends what side they turned to. We see Aurane Waters sail right off with a royal fleet to the stepstones. A made up story of a fleet being destroyed would seemingly indicate a motive of trying to hide what actually happened to the fleet. Why do you think Aerys desperately wanted a daughter? He already has children and grandchildren. Dany was abused, how can you possibly say that it ended the abuse? Do you have any evidence of this? Illyrio says he was planning Dany’s wedding to Drogo for years, and clearly has the means to house Dany and Viserys, yet they were only there briefly before the wedding. Nobody else in Essos saw value in a pair of Targaryen children? Seems silly. Sounds like you are just making assumptions to suit your theory. Where are you getting Robert knowing the babe’s gender from the text? We don’t know where or when the follow up conversation between Stannis and Robert happened, not the circumstances of how information was passed. You can speculate, but it’s not evidence of anything. That Rhaella was pregnant, and died in childbirth with Ser Willem fleeing with Viserys and a babe is not disputed. I agree, it’s more likely the baby just died very young, as so many sadly did. But the difference between that and a stillbirth kept secret is sort of irrelevant and we have no evidence to go on for more details. Again, it’s not one small detail. But there is evidence of a connection between her and Ned, and Ned did go to Starfall after the Tower of Joy. Or maybe it’s a reference to the first and only true Usurper’s knife sent after Dany, the wine merchant, who even appears in a House of the Undying vision. They do have some evidence, Ned didn’t go to Harrenhall or War alone, even if it was only he and Howland who rode away from the Tower of Joy. I don’t think either of us believe their rumors are entirely true, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t truth to be found in them.

I’m not sure what you intend this quote to show. Cat hears the rumor about Jon from the servants in Winterfell. When we hear the rumor from a servant, Harwin, it’s about Jon being conceived at Harrenhall. Or the timeline is just a little wonky What? Rhaegar was wrong about just about everything… unless you think he or his son Aegon were the prince that was promised! Hell, the idea that he had to learn to use a sword is even irony, given the way he died. When a man loves a woman sometimes they have sex and it’s not about duty or prophesy. Return where? I suspect Lyanna’s disappearance a few months after the Tourney of Harrenhall was when she could no longer hide her pregnancy. She and Rhaegar then resided at the Tower of Joy until Rhaegar’s return to King’s Landing. The Kingsguard remaining to guard his son, with Lyanna dying in a second pregnancy nine months later, when Ned found her. The explanation that the child was already born makes more sense, and explains why the Kingsguard remained even after Rhaegar’s death, they knew a male heir was already born.

The song of Danny flint, a woman pretending to be a man so she can serve is a parallel to Dany being the prince who was promised and the gender confusion there. Lyanna’s grandmother was a flint. There are multiple inconsistencies which with the stories she was told. You can hand wave them away, I think they were intentional. Sure, like the House with the Red Door being in Braavos. I disagree this is the only one, just the most obvious. Again you can hand wave it away, but I prefer to engage with the text. Clearly I disagree with you. It’s an incredibly strong parallel in my opinion. Followed by Cersei saying Exile is a bitter cup to drink from, which I think is directly referenced in the House of the Undying. “Drink from the cup of ice… drink from the cup of fire” Bitter and sweet being among the list of opposites paralleled with fire and ice (and make and female) given to us by Melisandre. Same thing. I don’t find much value in engaging with hypotheticals. But do you. I’ve never suggested there was a naval battle, nor that the Targaryen fleet was still there when Stannis arrived. Maybe they weren’t together. Maybe Stannis’s only information is second hand. Again, it’s only useful to address the story we do have, not the what ifs. I disagree. Storms are extremely common in the narrow sea. I don’t understand what you think this is evidence of? That Willem didn’t trust the garrison and servants who were ready to turn them over to Stannis? That Rhaella had a nameless baby? That Viserys and Willem were gone before Stannis arrived? Here’s a fun one. Who was the Maester of Dragonstone when Rhaella was pregnant? There’s a lot we don’t know, so it’s important to pay attention to the details of what evidence we do have. So there’s no way Jon Connington believes young Griff is Aegon? Is that what you are saying? Characterization is generally very weak evidence, especially when being used to contest hard textual evidence. But if that’s the game you’d rather play… Dany is repeatedly characterized as Lyanna’s child. She is a natural rider without training of her stark colored horse, both she and Lyanna are described like centaurs. She loves flowers, and wears them in her hair while dressed in Stark colors. She is afraid of howling alone for a long time in the dark. "You will drink," Dany said, cold as ice. "Empty the cup etc etc I don’t think a debate about the GRRM quote about who was “most like” to name Tyrion which doesn’t include the fathers name is very relevant to this discussion. Although to be fair, Tywin doesn’t seem the sort of man to name a dwarf after himself, nor is it a similar style to Jaime or Cersei. But again, we digress. Dragons… liberation? What story are you reading? They are burning swords held over the world, responsible for the enslavement of most of Essos and the conquest of Westeros. Too much light can hurt the eyes, my friend, and fire burns. Missing the forest for the trees. Dany has brought fire and blood to slavers bay already. I’ve never suggested that she was not the “blood of the dragon” or born of House Targaryen. Remembering “who she is” and “who she was made to be” are likely two different things, which fits extremely well with what I’m saying. Dany wants to plant trees. I want to plant my olive trees and see them fruit.

Nobody is claiming Dany named herself… this is a strawman, and a poor one. Any one discrepancy is easy to hand wave away, but there is a pattern of falsehoods that has emerged from the stories Viserys told Dany, which I think was intentional by the author. The Usurper’s knives are kind of an important detail since they supposedly were why Viserys and Dany ran from court to court. But they didn’t exist. It’s not all trivial details. I would argue the possibility that the Targaryen fleet was not destroyed but co-opted could also be meaningnful. Why give her a title at all? Why travel from court to court? The babe… again notice the lack of a name. I don’t think this is coincidence. Rhaella may well have had a baby, but I suspect that child died like the results of so many of her other pregnancies. I agree the fleet was not there when Stannis arrived. This does not mean it was destroyed by imaginary blocks of stone. Maybe it simply sailed away. Maybe it was disloyal like the garrison, maybe it was co-opted. People lie, yes. What promise did Ned keep, what promise did he break? What happened to Ashara Dayne. There are holes in the story. The servant we actually read talk about it, Harwin, implies Jon was conceived at the Tourney of Harrenhall: When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor. There's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say? Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that? Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged. We don’t know exactly who was at the Tower of Joy (besides the combatants), but I quoted Harwin above, who was a Winterfell servant and knew Jon, as he is who the reader does get a story from. Very clearly the point of the story being a conception at Harrenhall before Cat and Ned were engaged. We know they speculated that his mother was Ashara Dayne, and he was conceived at Harrenhall…

But she is blind to it. By a year or a day, it’s pretty impossible for Robb to be older than Jon. So if you want to argue that it’s hard to believe just how much she deluded herself, then ok, but she is deluding herself. Maybe, we have very little to go on about what actually happened let alone his motivations. What we do know is that he was not at all good at interpreting prophesy. Sometimes it’s not about politics or prophesy… sometimes when a man loves a woman… they fuck