EggBlue

Yes. it was absolutely worse to be a peasant or even a minor noble in the Pre-Targ era.

In basic terms, if you were a peasant affected by war under Targ rule, you had more options for escape. Say, you were a Riverlander during the Dance, which was the worst war under the Targaryens, you had the chance to run to North (which is not affected by war but awaits winter) or Vale(which is ideal if you can run past the clans) or you could run to certain parts of the Reach, anywhere in Dorne, Stormlands or some parts of Crownlands. Now, imagine you were a Riverlander in Hoar wars and want to run. You must check if Starks and Boltons are not fighting in the North, check the situation in Dornish marches, check if there's some succession war in the Reach, or make sure you can run past the mountain clans... unfortunately due to lack of WiFi, you have to rely on your luck, close your eyes and RUN. 

Another development after the Conquest is the fact that you only have to worry about one person going asshole and irresponsible instead of 7, and even then, Dragon Trio made a Small Council to somewhat moderate the King's decisions, something that I doubt was the case with any of the Pre-Targ kingdoms. Sure, the council could be corrupted, but that's progress from nothing at all.

Then there's the excellent deal that kingdoms like the North, Reach, Westerlands, and Riverlands got out of the united kingdom right from the start: aid with the Winter situation, stability, less trouble from Ironborn, and protection from the rest of the realms. 

On 2/4/2023 at 9:09 AM, Angel Eyes said:

Unless Daenerys is Snow White and the witch is the Starks (collectively), which might be the point they're trying to get across.

noo. Jon Snow is obviously Snow White. 

Jon Snow has every factor : white skin - Black Hair - Evil Step Mom - Love at First Sight (Yigrete) - Animal Friends (the guy can literally have a trail of animals behind him... much like Varameer) 

meanwhile the so called Daenerys Stormborn Targaryen is a queen , is magical, and is friends with Dragons( Melifacent?!) ... she is so obviously THE WITCH.

7 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Westeros will be begging for Dany’s help after Euron, Littlefinger, Stannis, Jon Snow-Wight, and Cersei have destroyed the kingdom that the Targaryens built. It will be in a very sad state so expect disappointment but also opportunities.  Opportunities because any resistance will be weak.  

here I thought we root for Snow White against the witch!

7 hours ago, Melifeather said:

I believe that Wylla is Ashara Dayne living in her father's home at Starfall under an assumed identity much like Alayne is actually Sansa, pretending to be Littlefinger's daughter living in his household. 

The Dayne family tree is sparse. Edric Dayne is supposedly the son of an unnamed brother of Ashara and named after Ned Stark. Why is he not worthy of the sword Dawn? If his age wasn't inconveniently a year younger than Sansa's I'd be tempted to believe he's Ned's son.

Edric told Arya that when he was born his mother wasn't able to produce enough milk to nurse him so Wylla became his milk-mother. The thing is, women don't produce milk indefinitely. Jon Snow was born in 283 and the wiki estimates that Edric was born 4 years later in 287, so how did Wylla continue to lactate? Unless Edric is older and closer to Jon in age. Alternately, Wylla would need to give birth to another child between Jon and Edric to keep the milk supply going or be a continual wetnurse.

If my suspicions that Jon Snow is Ashara and Ned's son, then he could claim the sword Dawn.

I do like Sansa/Ashara parallel. but, Wylla/Alayne doesn't align at all. Wylla is a servant, Alayne is a bastard lady. their roles, purpose and connection to the family are different. then of course there's the logistics part that should be considered to a degree. if Wylla is indeed Ashara, then Daynes have turned their daughter/sister into a servant . not to mention, this situation doesn't explain a Ned Stark involvement at all... if anything, it would make Daynes hate Ned even more. what with Knocking up their sister, leaving her to be a servant, and killing Arthur who was doing his job. the fact that Wylla was both Ned's and Jon's wet nurse simply means that she has at least 2 children: one is 15 , the other is 12. 

I still tend to stick to my theory that Ashara is Lemore and that Ned has covered for her and house Dayne.

7 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Yes, but it still doesn't make sense for him to be the only Dayne to ever join the Kingsguard.

he clearly fucked up there! maybe that's why he always has a "sad smile" in memories! he was the perfect knight and had to stop being the perfect knight to be the perfect Kingsgaurd. likely, by the end he was neither.

one could say Arthur made the choice that Jon's friends stopped him to do. Arthur chose to be a kingsgaurd to be by his brother's(Rhaegar's) side, while Jon was persuaded not to follow his brother(Robb) . 

2 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

If that holds, and if Jon is the next Sword of the Morning, his daddy's a Dayne.

aaand ... another cover up by Ned Stark for Daynes. I mean, what did Robert do to Rhaegar's family when he thought Rhaegar has hooked up with Lyanna?! 

2 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Even so, 12 years old is too young to become Sword of the Morning, he is still just a squire at this point. Which is probably why GRRM created Darkstar. 

totally plausible. but what a disappointing development! a man of the night instead of the knight in shining armor

Numbers and GRRM don't work together all that well. The same goes for ages and some other logistic parts of the world building ( I still don't know how the North survives in winter. one would assume silos or some different plan should be in order, which doesn't seem to exist in the North). So the casualties of the Dance are the last thing I worry about.

I don't think she'd find happiness in Westeros, and she'd likely be disappointed by the fact that people don't cheer her, likely because they would already have their Targaryen king. but it in no way can be like the show's portrayal. she won't expect the treatment she received in Essos. Daenerys doesn't seem to think she needs to "free" Westeros. that's why going back to Westeros is not her priority. if she goes back to Westeros after the throne , I see a Stannis like situation for her where she needs to choose between going to Kingslanding and to the Wall. 

4 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

It's commonly accepted in the fandom that the original plan was for Edric Dayne to have Dawn, so I wonder what kind of character he would have become in that scenario. Heroic or villainous?

i'm pretty sure his involvement with Beric was to make him people's champion.  I still don't put it past him to eventually wield Dawn.  he is 14 which is the same age as Jon when he got Longclaw.  though,  I personally like for Jon to wield Dawn, if it's going to be important.  it would have to go against some popular theories,  but then it'll respect #1 fantasy rule:  the hero gets the shining blade

4 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Only a Dayne who is deemed worthy can legally claim it, but it doesn’t mean that someone else can’t steal it. 

please! Dawn wouldn't work for someone unworthy, it'll be just like an ordinary sword.. say, like the elder wand!

2 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Gerold Hightower is a strange case; he's instructed to bring Rhaegar back from Dorne but for unknown reasons Rhaegar and Hightower trade places with Rhaegar going back to lead the royal army while Hightower stays in Dorne with Lyanna, who already had two Kingsguard with her. Keep in mind that Kingsguard, particularly the Lord Commander, are typically counted on as a commander at the very least, Hightower himself had taken command of the Westerosi army after Ormund Baratheon was killed in the War of the Ninepenny Kings.

yeah... very strange . make me think he must have had direct orders from the king.  what orders? i don't know...

18 minutes ago, sifth said:

I’d love to learn the back story of winds, if it ever comes out. To be honest the back story for all the issues GRRM ran into during the writing of AFFC and ADWD is more interesting than the books themselves.

me too. but let's not give him ideas just yet. Otherwise, he'll start a back story book after winds and tour it for three years!

3 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

He needs to do whatever he wants to do. What I said is based on what Martin himself said when talking about his plans for all these projects:

“George did talk about his schedule in terms of the order of things he wants to publish things in. No dates were mentioned and the order sounded aspirational rather than set in stone”:

The Winds of Winter (natch)

Dunk & Egg IV (either The She-Wolves or The Village Hero)

A Dream of Spring

Dunk & Egg V (either The Village Hero or The She-Wolves)

Fire & Blood II

the guy really needs to sort out some realistic priorities for himself and let some of these projects go! it amazes me that he might think he can finish all three series... 

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

I don't think a coup against Aerys was really possible after Rhaegar sided with him against the rebels.

I don't know. coups can happen in the most unstable conditions. especially if one controls the armies. if Rhaegar could bring Arryns , Starks and Tullies to his cause, he already had Dorne and much of Crownlands . and Tyrells would have probably preferred joining him . so, he could just go in the throne room and escort his father to his chambers , where he'd be confined. Rhaegar's real problem was that his wife and children were hostages in Kingslanding and Lyanna was with loyal-till-the-bitter-end White Bull. 

12 minutes ago, LynnS said:

 didn't he also say that someone who is not a Dayne could claim the sword?

he said that? in the world book specifically says a knight of house Dayne and any doubt I had was gone with this line : " There are boys who secretly dream of being a son of Starfall so they might claim that storied sword and its title"

17 minutes ago, alienarea said:

Dawn seems to be missing.

Ned claims he returned it to House Dayne, but is this true?

If Dawn is the sword of the Night King, maybe Ned picking it up after defeating Arthur Dayne triggered the rise of the White Walkers?

And that is what Mance will do in the crypts - remove Dawn from the Night's King buried there and thus ending the White Walkers?

 

Daynes already have more than enough reasons to hate Ned. If he'd taken Dawn too, I can't imagine what makes them name their heir after him.

.

11 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

But for that to happen, it needs to be delivered around summer. And GRRM doesn't seem that optimistic in his blog posts, at least from what I can tell. 

Yep! I agree with you. I just feel like I should be optimistic.

if I'm being optimistic, it'll be November/December 2023. 

when I first read the series, I was so sure that Winds would eventually be published in 2022-2023 ... I once even thought 2024 at the very most... and I had ACTUALLY put some thought into it! I thought that Winds can't take much more time than Dane and Feast combined... it's so embarrassing thinking of it now...

Hard to say, but I guess Daario or Strong Belwas . because both had fought in the pits. (wait, was it show Dario or book Daario?)

in Westeros it's even harder to say. but I'm gonna say Daemon Blackfyre was the best fighter. he was half-believed to be the Warrior's son before Aegon the lusty claimed him after all!  

47 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

1. And the babies?

He hates everything Rhaegar-related.

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

This means that I'm not just being picky here, even in-universe this baby swap makes little to no sense. You were suggesting the opposite before, that's not the case.

you were being picky when your argument for Aegon=/=Aegon was that the baby swap plot was not logistically possible. and I wasn't suggesting the opposite before. I'm saying there's a distinction between what makes sense for the readers and for the in-universe people. much like Cersei's children's bastardy is a fact for us, readers; but can be very well disputed among the in-universe people.

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

Come on, JonCon is not that blind, he does see the differences between the lad and his alleged father like the color of their eyes. As for Varys, he's not technically lying, Young Griff real name is Aegon and is here (at Westeros) when he was talking to Kevan, who didn't share his memory of Rhaegar's son, we've only seen it in his thoughts. We already have a better alternative, but you're dismissing it just because Varys said "No he's here", please.

we clearly draw different conclusions from the same line. that's fine.

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

The thing is that Varys must have planned it in advance to make the baby swap plausible. He was at King's Landing, not in Lys, he couldn't find a baby with Valyrian's features or at least blonde hair, a father willing to sell him to a total stranger and bring the baby back to the nursery so that Elia can pretend to take care of her son in the middle of a Sack. It would take way too much time and can get him killed. It is way easier to flee with the three of them through the secret passages, they had time to do it, looking for a pisswater prince, not so much in a hurry.

the fact that royal children may have doublegangers at hand isn't strange or new. as for Kings Landing, it's very weird to assume there aren't Valyrian-looking people in the city.I doubt that they are even all that scarce! it's the place where many Targaryens, Velaryons , Celtigars, and their other relations lived and likely had illegitimate children over the years. moreover, one would imagine a lot of common folk in the three Valyrian-Westerosi islands may be descendants of the common folk Valyrians who had come with the ruling families, making them technically Valyrian. and again, Varys didn't need a perfect match if he just wanted to buy time.

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

Sacks are always bloody, the nobles know it too well.

nobles also know they usually protect their own ranks. especially when one is from royal blood.

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

They were already held hostage by Aerys, if she had the opportunity to flee with her children, which would have been the case if Varys was willing to save them,

when they were Aerys's hostages, Varys had no use in keeping them from their house's overlord. not when he was Varys's employer.

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

I don't believe she would have let it go and just stay behind with her daughter to die but would have sought to regain her freedom.

you're repeating.

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

I would add that Varys has dubious loyalty and I don't see how she could trust him with the life of her children. For all she knew, Varys was Aerys' rat and the freak was hostile to her.

Varys is very convincing. it's quite funny how everyone in the story hates him, everyone thinks they know him and know they shouldn't trust him, yet everyone thinks they can use him. 

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

The deeper I get into this story, the less sense it makes, it's more plausible that he is a Blackfyre through the females but you prefer swallowing a story that you yourself find strange because Varys said "No he's here", which is not a lie again and we're not in Varys' mind when he said those words.

at the end of the day , Blackfyre plot is just a popular theory. how about you don't treat it like a fact?

3 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Correct.  And when Tyrion sent Rosamund to Dorne with Myrcella to serve as a double for Myrcella, he was not planning for .... whatever has happened or is about to happen.

I think the real difference between you and me here is how we see Varys's character. I read the character as a pure opportunist. you and William Srark ,I guess, see him as a grand schemer. we do not know whether Varys was planning this from the start or that he planned it all 5 yrs later after observing Robert's court, just in case it could be used. how was what Varys and Illyrio did by keeping Aegon different from what Rogars pulled off during and after the Dance?

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

The truth is that I'm not the only one having a hard time swallowing all this: Tyrion has doubts, Doran too.

We are not in the simple case of a reader refusing to suspend his disbelief but a story that is being questioned by two characters in-universe, then a reader who elaborates on what is being questioned. Besides the Blackfyre hints are very hard to ignore and makes more sense than the baby swap thing.

sure, they question his identity. how could they not? Aegon could be the Aegon as much as Ramsay's wife is Arya as far as in-universe people are concerned. but it has nothing to do with the logistics of the plan. and as reader , I would have had an easier time looking for alternatives to Aegon's identity if Jon Con didn't see his deceased friend in the boy's face or Varys didn't confess to a dying Kevan. 

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

None of this requires to see the future, unlike the baby swap allegedly made by Varys.

Again, that's a question of whether Varys planned it from the get-go or he had just taken the opportunity. read above.

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

Why are you using the plural? He only saved one child and let the other one die, with Elia's blessing supposedly.

I copied it from a post I had made previously about the plausibility of Vary's initial plan to swap both kids to buy time for their escape. Only they were out of time, and Rhaenys had fled to her dad's chambers. However, it is not far-fetched to think if Elia was pressed with the choice, she might choose to send the heir to safety, just like Helaena Targaryen did back in the Dance. 

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

Well that's a pity because it is the only plausible way to make the baby swap with Elia's approval. But I don't think she would agree to stay behind with Rhaenys so they could die together, even though Varys could save the three of them by taking advantage of the chaos outside of the Red Keep.

You say that as if anyone could predict how bloody sack would be! Ned Stark certainly didn't; to be honest, the fate of Elia and her children was utterly unprecedented. There was no reason to think they'll die. there was every reason to think they'll be hostages against Targaryens and Martells, .there was every reason to think Aegon was in more danger, and there was every reason to believe if any of them might face death, it would be Aegon. especially because Targaryen girls were pretty much out of line of succession.

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

As Tyrion said it's a good story for bards, but hard to swallow for a clever person in-universe. I'm doing my best to think like one in this same universe, nothing else.

Tyrion talks too much.

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

Aegon "Young Griff" is the son of Illyrio Mopatis and Serra Blackfyre. He was born in late 283 to early 284 and is currently sixteen. He lived in Illyrio's mance with his parents during the first years of his life, then he went away with JonCon and co to learn how to be the perfect King. This is the conclusion I came to while reading ADWD and I don't think I need to give the clues that led me there since they are widely known.

The baby swap thing is too hard too swallow from Targ loyalist PoV because there are too many weird things: Varys could not foresee that Aerys would not listen to him, that Gregor would smash Aegon's head against the wall, making him unrecognizable. Moreover, I find it hard to believe that Elia would agree to let her son go and stay behind with her daughter, as hostages of the Mad King and suffer a horrible death. In addition to this, why would Varys only save Aegon? He had plenty of time to get them out of the Red Keep then into safety while the Lannister men sacked King's Landing.

For a Targaryen loyalist, I think he was more effective in sabotaging Aerys' reign rather than preserving it. As Barristan said, his whispers amplified Aerys' madness, leading to the atrocities we know today. Sorry guys, you've lost me here, Varys doesn't care about Targaryens and let them fall like flies on purpose, I can't buy the opposite.

overthinking the technicalities and logistics of plans doesn't go well with this series imo. otherwise, there are numerous plot holes in Robert's Rebellion, Tower of Joy incident, the whole Rhaegar/Lyanna fiasco, Robert's death plan by Cersei, Catspaw Dagger, Doran's master plan, and so on. what makes the swap stand out and be believable , is the fact that Martin gives us 3 other swaps in the same book(Feast & Dance are written like one book) : Mance's child, Myrcella & Rosamund (both on the ship and in Dorne) and Davos. 

besides,  a thing people keep assuming when talking about baby swap is what YG is doing right now has been Varys's plan from the get go . but was it ? did he have to look for children who looked exactly like the royal children ? well , no . he couldn't possibly know they are gonna get murdered . obviously the plan must have been something like Jon's baby swap plot with Gilly or Myrcella's swap with her cousin . the plan is to give some time to the royal person to runaway without anyone noticing . Jon had definitely planned to reveal Monster's identity as soon as anyone needed Mance's child . and Myrcella's cousin on the ship was just there to be taken to Stannis if anything happened so that Stannis wouldn't have that important of a hostage . the Lannister cousin was not suppose to pretend being Myrcella when brought in front of Stannis Baratheon . and one would think the tanner's boy and who ever that was suppose to be swapped with Rhaenys wasn't going to fool anyone . the truth would've been revealed whenever they were brought forth in front of Robert  and court. the problem is no one predicted the sack would be as bloody as it was . 

12 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I would not mind if he was a genuine Targaryen but the thing that suggests to me that it is more likely he is a Blackfyre is the Support of the Golden Company and this bit of potential foreshadowing.

And I am suspicious of the Golden Company's claim that they 'just want to go home'. If this was really their motive, wouldn't they have done so by now? They had a good opportunity during Robert's Rebellion, no?

 they don't just want to go home . but they don't seem to have much loyalty left for Blackfyres either.

first of all, let's take a look at the members: the spymaster is Lysene , the commander of archers is Summer Islander, and the paymaster is Volantene. of the sergeants, a third are foreigners, and a third are bastard knights born in Westeros without much allegiance to house Blackfyre. which leaves Harry Strickland, a 4 generation Golden Company legacy, the most likely candidate to be a Blackfyre loyalist. ironically, he's the most reluctant one to follow Aegon. 

then, let's consider for a moment the fact that Jon Con joined the Company first thing after exile, despite being a fierce Targaryen loyalist. not only that, but he quickly rose in the ranks of the company, and nobody thought twice about it. (granted, he was sleeping with the captain-general, but still!) .

therefore, my safest bet on GC's motivation is that they are just another sellsword company, only with more prestige. it's also worth noting that they needed some convincing and only accepted Aegon because of both the good deal they could get out of it and Aegon's charisma. I mean, they are sellswords and they are offered the possibility of lordship and sack instead of sitting still outside of Myr's walls!  

27 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

A distinction can be drawn, and in this case, was drawn.  So no.  In current context, Blackfyres are not Targaryens, just as Targaryens are not Blackfyres.  Both are Valyrians, though.

red or black , they are as much family as Starfall Daynes and Highhermitage Daynes . 

On 7/1/2022 at 10:41 PM, LynnS said:

Speaking of gems around the neck... Mel wears a giant square cut ruby at her throat.  

 

More giant square cut rubies...

Stannis' glamored sword:

Mance glamored:

Illyrio has given fAegon 3 giant square cut rubies on an iron chain to wear around his neck:

Are we being set up for some future glamor?

But Lynn, the most famous giant square-cut rubies belong to another Aegon: the crown of Aegon I, a circlet of Valyrian steel, set with big square-cut rubies. And of course, there are rubies at throats and rubies at chests associated with Targaryens (granted, we don't know if they are square cut) : 

Daughters of prince Daemon ....Both were dressed in gowns of soft black velvet with rubies at their throats, and the three-headed dragon of House Targaryen on their cloaks.

Rhaegar owned night-black plate armor, with the three-headed dragon of House Targaryen decorated in rubies on its breastplate