Sevalemer

That's exactly what I'm saying lol. They did it anyway. They all do, despite the risk of certain death if they are caught. Tywin and Cersei would've been around if Ned was ruling as regent, right? I mean, LF's plan with Ned wasn't "assassinate all the Lannisters," right? In any case, Tywin wasn't going to live forever, and Cersei played herself out of power quite fast. Because LF and her plotted it out, off-screen. Because Sansa was with Tyrion, and he had planned out a choreographed insult with Tyrion to get him and the king to fight. If the plan went awry and Sansa couldn't escape, she would be carrying the smoking gun proving Tyrion's and her guilt. Mutually assured destruction. LF had enough influence to negotiate the alliance. If Olenna or LF were caught, they would implicate the other. Maybe she felt strongly about handling it herself, instead of involving yet ANOTHER party. You seem to feel pretty strongly about adding more folks who could rat them out. See above. No idea, unless Olenna told her she was going to do it. To implicate Tyrion even further. To sow discord in House Lannister. This is very funny, because Lysa changes her story from Cersei to Tyrion, and we have Tyrion's PoV in which he is assuredly NOT GUILTY of the attempted killing of Bran or Jon Arryn. Sure, LF could be lying about the whole thing. That doesn't make Tyrion the target any more likely than Margaery was the target. Which is why poking holes in what the book does tell us in service of your theory is not a compelling argument. Let's go one step further. Maybe MACE was the target. LF could've been lying! The assassination attempt makes no sense. That means Mace was the target, I'm convinced.

I don't agree with your build-up of "regicide." Everyone does regicide. The Freys and Boltons committed regicide. The Lannisters committed regicide. There was regicide galore in the DoD. To say that Littlefinger can't find a way to influence Tommen when his original plan with Ned was to rule through regency with the children in custody and he's CURRENTLY ACTING AS THE LORD OF THE VALE WITH A CHILD FIRMLY UNDER HIS GRIP is absurd. Would LF have trouble ruling the Vale if Robin was Joffrey 2.0? Of. Course. This has gone far off the rails. LF and Olenna scheming to kill Joff is the story. Everything fits. Trying to poke holes into it to make the argument that Tyrion was the target for no reason because of no reason is not a compelling argument.

King's peace. Less war. Less death.

You say they didn't "need him for the murder" but maybe the plan was his? We've seen similar things unfold this way. Bronn quipped to Tyrion about how his life would be easier if Tommen was king and Joff died and Tyrion considers it. He doesn't immediately arrest Bronn or tell Cersei he's not loyal. We don't know the details about the planning, and what it involved. It was probably something vaguely implied until both parties agreed to do it. I don't think LF had great influence on Joff. Tommen is the much more malleable king, it's pretty much regularly commented on by everyone. Ultimately, LF's explanation of the murder plot fits with his entire MO in the story. According to George R. R. Martin, "Everybody trusts him because he seems powerless, and he's very friendly, and he's very helpful." And for a larger point, imo, all these theories are "hated" because the building blocks for the story George has planned are there, and we are all making ourselves crazy waiting for this damn next book.

Ice and Fire alternates is interesting, I never noticed that. The easy prediction would be a random character on the wrong side of the Battle of Fire who realizes the Ironborn are landing and the dragons are attacking and dies, probably via dragon flame. Harder to predict the arcane power part.

Are you agreeing with me here with these quotes? The Lannisters trusted him after he betrayed the Starks. Why wouldn't the Tyrells trust him after he betrayed the Lannisters for them? He's still trusted by the royal family because they don't know he betrayed them. And like I said, we don't know what reward he is going to get from the Tyrells because the book isn't written. He didn't know he was going to get Harrenhal before he betrayed anyone. He saw it as an opportunity to improve his standing somehow and it worked. It's likely the same thing here. The Tyrells gain Joffrey not being king. Clearly, Olenna is the real head of the household and understood he was cruel and uncontrollable. And they had thrown their lot in with the Lannisters by agreeing to the alliance in the first place, to make up for initially being traitors. Olenna says all of this. Tommen is younger, gentler and likely easier to manipulate to the Tyrell's benefit with Margaery in his ear. Olenna thought the risk of being caught in a regicide was worth killing Joffrey. When you play the game of thrones etc etc. It's a theme of the series. I'm torn between his character arc ending as not learning his lesson from Catelyn or having learned the ultimate lesson (for him) by eventually betraying/using Sansa even though he has a soft spot for her. Her being the key to the North from his standpoint means she has objective value outside of sentimentality. I think LF is destined to 100% die either way the chips fall.

LF's MO the entire series is: Ingratiate yourself with powerful ally, get rewarded, betray them for another powerful ally. He ingratiates himself with Lysa. Gets to Jon through her. Benefits from the relationship. Kills Jon. Ingratiates himself with Ned. Betrays Ned. Ingratiates himself with the Lannisters. Benefits. Betrays the Lannisters (unknowingly so far). Ingratiates himself with the Tyrells. Betrays Lysa. Benefits. Who knows what his end-goal is, but he's clearly selling his schemes and services to whoever benefits him most at the time. He doesn't betray an old master until he has a new master, and NONE of them suspect him because he's originally an unassuming low-level lord that they consider useful. He's probably gunning for the IT. He's set up in the series as a foil to Varys, who also helps people that help his goal up to the point they are no longer helpful. But LF has no stated motives outside of his own self-interest. And sometimes it doesn't work, like with Ned trying to rule the kingdom with him, then jumping ship when Ned didn't want to go along with it. He's going to have an angle with the Tyrells, we just don't know it yet.