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Darzin

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About Darzin

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    Faux political agitator

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    Male
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    中国

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  1. Darzin

    US Politics: Out in the Cold

    Oh... well then, I wonder if he'l issue an apology like he did when he used the N word with Ben Sasse? Either way he has enough vague racism and sexism to be problematic, and denies germ theory and denies vaccines. Which is all a pit because I enjoy his show more often than not.
  2. Darzin

    US Politics: Out in the Cold

    What did he do?
  3. Darzin

    US Politics: Out in the Cold

    Obama got clobbered in the midterm as well and still won reelection, but I still think he will lose. Incumbents tend to win but they also have less support then when they won Trump doesn't have much room to give, the tiniest drop of support in the Midwest and he's done. Also this is ignoring turnout half the country doesn't vote that's who you want not Trump supporters, sure Trump can GOTV but I think the dems have a much larger pool to pull from in that area.
  4. Darzin

    US Politics: Out in the Cold

    Incumbents do have a huge advantage, what I'm hanging my hopes on is Trump barely skated by before to get him to lose you need to change 70k votes. Now compare Obama's drop ins support from first to second term he got something like 2 million votes less. If Trump has a comparable drop in support he's toast. Also I think there will be a lot less complacency on the democratic voters who didn't vote last time.
  5. Darzin

    US Politics: Out in the Cold

    Lol I think it's a little early to be calling the election before the primaries are even over.
  6. Darzin

    US Politics: Out in the Cold

    Castro or Beto are my picks as well. Warren is solid on policy but stuff like that makes me not want to support her. The others are pretty much a wash for me, but I'll be happy to vote for whoever gets the nomination.
  7. Darzin

    US Politics: Out in the Cold

    The more I hear about Schultz the less I worry about him stealing democratic votes. I think he would have been better off trying to primary Trump and appealing to Republicans with his policies.
  8. Darzin

    US Politics: Out in the Cold

    I agree I just don't think she'll be able to handle him. As her DNA test stunt showed which is a pity because she is very solid on policy. If Roe vs Wade is overturned I doubt they'd outlaw entirely probably turn it over to the states but you never know Roberts is Catholic there is a decent chance he views abortion as strait up murder. As a small silver lining Roe vs Wade being overturned would boost democratic turnout and lower Republican. A lot of the Republican base is hugely motivated by the abortion issue so taking that away takes away a driving force for the Republicans. Abortion is a lot easier to oppose when the grim consequences of having it banned aren't visible. So the dems might make some gains but at a cost of human suffering.
  9. Darzin

    US Politics: Out in the Cold

    For sure no one is perfect and so much depends on the debates and who gets traction. Beto does seem like someone who could flame out. I could see him winning Iowa and no other states.
  10. Darzin

    US Politics: Out in the Cold

    Some are I've heard Beto talk about gerrymandering in Texas. I agree with those saying that trying to convert Trump voters is a lost cause, much better to boost turnout half the country doesn't vote it's much easier to run up your margins with them than try to bring Trump voters into the fold.
  11. Darzin

    US Politics: Out in the Cold

    I agree I think Harris is not terribly appealing. I really like Julian Castro but I'm not sure if he'll get traction. I also like Beto O'rourke I think he would cruise to victory as a second Obama, which is both good and bad, good because I think he'd capture the Obama coalition and be almost impossible to paint as a radical, and bad because he's not a radical, though he has endorsed healthcare for all which is my litmus test. I also somewhat like Tulsi Gabbard, for some of her foreign policy stances, she's problematic in other areas but she'd be my number one for secretary of state.
  12. Darzin

    US Politics: Out in the Cold

    I think the polling has as much to do with name nonrecognition as anything else once the primary starts in earnest I think that lead will disappear. I think in practice having a young candidate debating Trump will make for great optics. I really like Bernie but he would be 86 by the time he finishes a full two terms that's really pushing it as far as age for me.
  13. Darzin

    US Politics: Out in the Cold

    I do think there is some rising anger against capitalism among social conservatives whether it amounts to anything is yet to be seen. That part of America represents the left behind part of America as opposed to the prosperous liberal cities. It's worth noting that when it comes down to it if the right language is used these people don't care about movement conservative ideology. When Trump campaigned he blasted so many Republican sacred cows he ran on taxing the rich, building infrastructure tariffs and even mentioned universal healthcare and the base still loved him. Now Trump has not really governed that way and been a pretty standard Republican except on NATO the wall and tariffs, but it's worth noting that the average Republican voter could care less in many ways about Republican ideology. There is a decent chance nothing come of it. Or some ambitious heterodox Republican could try to harness that for their own ends. Also Wall Street, Big business and the chamber of commerce types are increasingly breaking with the republicans. Those people live like liberals in big cities eating sushi and going to trendy places and feel none of the resentment of the Trump coalition. Plus they hate tariffs and are not big on nativism. Right now they have no home which I think is where the Schultz run is coming from. I'm saying he is too old now. At least for me I think a younger nominee would do better. I supported him in 16 but four years is a lot when your his age. I do like him on politics though. I'm hoping one of the younger lesser known candidates takes up his mantle.
  14. Darzin

    US Politics: Out in the Cold

    I do think Kamala's idea of a middle class tax cut is genius it really cuts the legs out of a lot of Republican talking points. I would like someone a little further to the left. Bernie would be great... if he were 20 years younger. We just really need some new blood in the democrats, but the primary is a long slog and we'll see who rises to the challenge.
  15. I think it's a mistake to assume people like an Anne Coulter are morons. Anne Coulter is many things but she's not a moron. We don't need her IQ to know that, just listening to her speak is enough. And statistically intelligent people are more likely to hold insane/extreme views as they are more likely to be able to rationalize them when challenged.
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