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Everything posted by GrimTuesday

  1. I haven't been around much as of late, so I'm just kind of stepping into a discussion mid way through, but Republicans entire platform is based on disenfranchising minorities and the poor, destroying the power of workers in favor of the bosses who profit off their labor, and ravaging what little social safety net exists while funneling money to the rich. Add on a heaping helping of social conservatism that basically boils down to if you're not a heterosexual white Christian who thinks that Leave it to Beaver was an actual reflection of "the good old days", you're a bad person and you have a lovely mix of reactionary cruelty. Vote for low taxes if you want, but know you're voting all that other shit too. If you can live with it, as well as all the other unsavory folks who also like that shit, cool, but don't cry when people point it out. Dems are pretty shit too, there is some level of truth behind the both sides argument, but hey, until we have an actual social democrat party, it's what we got.
  2. Yes, and it is a good bill in spite of Joe Manchin doing everything he could to knock holes in it. If he had his way, we'd be looking at the 2008 recovery bill all over again.
  3. The point is that eventually, you aren't going to have even the barest margin of power because every time you manage to overcome the inherently undemocratic nature of the Senate, you get handcuffed by someone who cares more about his damned reputation and posturing than he does about actually achieving the stated goals of the Democratic party, and not even my wing of the party, we're talking the fucking establishment's stated goals. If you are unable to effectively wield that power, it will be taken away from you. There is the old quote that is attributed to LBJ, that "It's probably better to have him inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in." but at a certain point, Manchin is in the tent and just spinning in circles spraying piss both inside and outside the tent. We're going to lose that seat, it's not a question of if, it's a question of when, and when that happens, what will we have to show for Joe Manchin's time in the senate? Just stopping Republicans is not enough, we have to actually govern in a way that gives Democrats real accomplishments they can run on in 2022 and 2024.
  4. Yeah, I think at a certain point, the law of diminishing returns starts to come into play with Manchin where his act becomes counter productive. Obviously at this time his vote is important since it is what secures the majority, but his status as the swing vote is extremely problematic because it impedes the major structural changes that need to happen in this country. Denying the other side power is not enough, because it leaves you vulnerable to attacks regarding the fact that you have held power without anything to show for it. In a country where people don't seem to recognize the fact that killing the poors is basically the GOP platform, if the party in power is not able to actually achieve concrete victories that people can see the effect of in their every day life (or that Dems can convince them they can see) you tend to lose that power. I'm not saying that is necessarily the case right now (I think we're starting to butt up against it), but eventually Manchin is going to be a real problem if he is not willing to play ball.
  5. Well my post was about Nevada, but if you really want my thoughts about Manchin, I think he doesn't really have much of a ideology outside of what he thinks will get him reelected/will benefit himself personally, so I don't know if you can really say he is to the left of these people so much as the Democratic party is to the left and Manchin is a Democrat. To my reckoning Manchin is more about his brand of being a moderate/deal maker while trying to counter the leftward swing of the Democratic party. I think that over all, we are trending in the right direction, just getting away from the deficit hawking in and of itself is a good first step, but I think as things stand Democrats are still too obsessed with small scale technocratic fixes that do not have a noticeable enough impact on the lives of the American people to get them out of the whole Democrats and the Republicans are the same so it doesn't matter who wins" mind set that I think accounts for a lot of people checking out entirely. I think that if we actually start addressing the root causes of economic precarity (this doesn't have to require the abolition of capitalism, but a boy can dream), people will feel more secure, be less susceptible to culture war shit because they won't be looking for someone to blame, and suddenly if you have a party that is making changes that you can see and that make your life noticeably better, it becomes a indisputable fact that electoral outcomes matter. This is a long term project, but as I said, in a lot of ways we are on the right track. Oh, and start adding states, let's gerrymander the fuck out of California into three states baby.
  6. People probably saw it, but if you didn't, basically everyone in in the Nevada Democratic Party quit after the establishment folks (basically Harry Reid's political machine) lost to a slate of Sanders/DSA aligned progressives. They also took about 85% (~450k out of 521k) of the party's warchest and sent it to the DSCC. Now, I don't really care whether or not they stuck around, I'd rather see the progressives build their own staff, but this seems to be people who left taking their ball and going home rather than a standard matter of handing over the reins to the new leadership group. Funny part about this whole thing was the name of the establishment group, The Progressive Unity Slate. Big time "Unity for thee but not for me" energy going on here. A few links on the story Nevada Democratic Party staff quit after Sanders backers take over (The Hill) Say goodbye to the most effective Democratic Party in the country (The Nevada Independent) Entire Staff of Nevada Democratic Party Quits After Democratic Socialist Slate Won Every Seat (The Intercept)
  7. This woman was an archetypal crusty communist Green party Nader supporter, how did she end up being so shit? Sad.
  8. I'd say that it is more likely that they're running interference by defusing the blame on Biden and Harris for not moving more aggressive with overruling the parliamentarian. I firmly believe that when push comes to shove, all of them would have voted for the relief bill if it was still in there.
  9. Sam Seder had Andy Kindler on The Majority Report today and they talked a bit about it. They're both on Bobs Burgers (Hugo and Mort respectively) and both knew the guy personally from back when he was working with David Cross on Mr. Show. Voting against shit like this on procedural grounds is absolute horse shit. By voting against it, all those people who aren't Sinema and Manchin made it look like a weaker proposal with less support that it actually has. They have given every opponent of the proposal a foothold to say "Not even 50 Democrats support this so therefore it is bad". Republicans don't even need to attack Democratic policies, Democrats do their work for them.
  10. Heh, I was writing that and thinking I knew it sounded familiar. In the space between when I posted that and when you responded I'd fallen into a bit of a Tolkien hole reading all the poems and songs he wrote in his various books. It is not on Biden to make them behave in such a manner, but we can and should help those whose goals align best with ours in situations such as this. I don't think there is no way that a deal gets hammered out in such a short time if we continue with how we're going right now. The hardliners gained a lot of power in the most recent parliamentary election, and they are trying to tie Rouhani's (hehe Rohan) hands and prevent him from securing any significant political victories at the 11th hour. It is not the moderates who are the problem it's the hardliners who are trying to prevent him from . As far as I'm concerned, throwing them a bone helps them (the moderates and reformists) more than it hurts us, and if I'm wrong, I think it was worth the risk for a chance at a safer world. Here's a pretty good article regard the electoral factor that I came across while looking into it https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/irans-hardliners-think-biden-might-hurt-their-june-presidential-election-strategy/
  11. America created this monster when they deposed Mosaddegh, and we now face the consequences of our actions. We legitimize the demonetization of America, we give the Iranian hardliners a boogie man to fearmonger with, and the hardliners seem poised to consolidate power in June. This is why the Iranian government under Rohani is posturing, The moderates and reformists want to get back into the accord, but they cannot be seen to be weak in the face of what Iranians see as continued American aggression. It is unlikely that we will be able to wrap up negotiations before June, so the Reformists need to come back to the people with some kind of win, even a small one like getting some sanctions lifted, which I think they will accept no matter what they are saying right at this moment, that shows their voters both that they are trying to reenter the accords, which were pretty popular in Iran (somewhere around 76% when it was signed), as well as they have the ability to be tough and stand up to America. I also think it would go a long way to cooling Iranian resentment towards America that has made the accords less popular (42% in January 2019). We have to give them a little breathing space and hope they win in June, or else that's probably the ball game for who knows how long. I'm not saying that this is all Biden's fault, this is an extremely complex issue with bad actors on all sides, but we are standing at the edge of a knife right now, and if we take the wrong path, it could end in disaster.
  12. That's bullshit. Republicans are going to scream about it if Biden cuts a deal with Iran or not, and Democrats are going to applaud if he prevails, or he will get a "good try you'll get 'em next time champ" if he fails. There is a difference between a failed military operation, where Americans died and a diplomatic move to remove then end up having to reapply sanctions. Shit he could even say that he tried to offer Iran an olive branch then slapped them with even stronger sanctions than Trump if they don't come to the table. Biden is going to get hit one way or another, might as well make a real go of it instead of half assing it and still losing.
  13. I think that the point about the half of the country would see any "victory" for Iran as bad is kind of the point of everything though. American politics is team sports, most people are going to cheer or boo based on the color jersey the president/congress is wearing. Just look at how liberals condemned Trump's air strikes then were applauding the air strikes we did in Syria just the other day. Americans have very little understanding of foreign policy and will just kind of go along with whatever the blue or red team tells them is good. Obviously there are some things that Americans are conditioned to react poorly to, but just look at the Iran nuclear deal, it was popular among democrats. Biden/the Dems will not lose in 2024 based on their foreign policy. I saw DMC cite the Iran Hostage Crisis but that was a completely different situation where Iran was actively holding high profile prisoners, that is not going to happen because of a softer approach towards Iran. It does if you speak in a thick Limerick accent.
  14. It's already asymmetrical. America is the most powerful nation in the world, we have the backing of Europe as well as their regional rivals. This power disparity is significant, and is what contributes to the siege mentality that fuels the Iranian people's resentment of America. We have destroyed the Iranian economy, we have humiliated them and made them look like fools for trusting us. You have to let them save face on some level. I don't know if they are going to go for dropping some sanctions but we're coming off four years of active antagonism the murder of Soleimani, and having walked away from a nuclear deal that was amenable to both sides, we should be the ones to make a show of good faith.
  15. I'm not saying that is what the Iranians are saying. I know they are demanding all sanctions be dropped. I'm saying that in my opinion, while we will not be dropping all sanctions, but dropping some, as a show of good faith is not unreasonable. The Biden's position is we can talk but we're not lifting sanctions until they comply with the agreement that we shredded, which is in my view is unreasonable.
  16. I still don't fucking care. The Saudis need us way more than we need them, and worrying about Saudi investment capital over their human rights abuses is morally bankrupt.
  17. Dude, we're the ones who violated the deal. This is like if made a deal to stop shooting someone in the kneecaps, start shooting them in the knee caps again, then start making demands to go back and comply with our original deal in order to make us stop. Iran is not a innocent regime, but to pretend they are not the wronged party here is idiotic. This is not to say we have to drop all the sanctions, but right now we are the ones impeding diplomacy. Real talk, I don't care. Lockheed and Raytheon aren't going to shut down their plants because we stop selling the Saudis helicopters. The US military is their largest contract by miles, and they can 100% absorb the revenue loss, and if they use American jobs as justification for continuing the blood shed in the middle east in the name of profit, they should be nationalized. I think that is actually a pretty good take. We are absolutely seeing a bi-plolar power dynamic forming in the middle east with Iran and Saudi Arabia. The only issue is the outside backing for the Saudi side is much more robust, meaning that while they have a security dilemma, on their hands, they are not under siege at this point. Sanctions have crippled the Iranian economy, whereas the economies of the Saudi aligned regimes are not nearly as inhibited. Beyond that, the countries in Iran's sphere are much less stable and susceptible to outside interference. Of course, this isn't even factoring in the fact that you have Turkey to the north kind of doing their own thing, so depending on where you think Turkey is at in terms of who you think they are inclined to align with, it could well be a multi-polar system which is less stable.
  18. Bullshit, we've moved the goal post on a country that was following the original deal even after we violated it (though yes, they have now basically said they're not going to abide by it). Biden dropping the Trump era sanctions is an entirely reasonable demand to make. It makes sense to keep up the pressure to put Iran in a weakened state, but I would argue that feeding into the siege mentality only steepens the upward climb we have to overcome to actually be able to reestablish these ties. Iran already feels like it is surrounded by US puppets who are seeking to destroy them, and they are more or less right. We didn't have a treaty with North Korea that we tore up and threw back in their face. We've been actively antagonizing Iran for 4 years, as Larry said, it's time for us to show some good faith here.
  19. We're doing a pretty piss poor job of reengaging with Iran. We walked away from a deal that everyone agrees they were complying with, imposed crippling sanctions, and are now demanding that Iran come back and negotiate with us without lifting the sanctions. Iran is right not to trust us, when it comes to Iran, the US's word isn't worth the paper a deal is signed on because in 4-8 years we'll have a Republican in office itching to start antagonizing them again. Also I still find the idea that we're not going to send them "offensive weapons" laughable, It's so fucking easy to argue that we could be selling them nukes as defensive weapons.
  20. It's pretty funny that Trump is talking about the border when Biden has largely continued the same policies which in turn were largely the same as what the Obama administration was doing.
  21. Please explain to me why removing the obstacles to actually being able to pass shit rather than just blaming Republicans for your own ineptitude is bad politics? Sure, you can say there isn't 50 votes for abolishing the filibuster, and that is correct, but I'm not talking about. The raise in the minimum wage does effect the federal budget even with the rather bullshit , so the idea that this is just arbitrarily violating the reconciliation process is factually wrong. This is about Democrats using procedural hurdles they are choosing not to overcome as an excuse for their in actions on one of if not the most popular bi-partisan policy proposals going right now. This was a major campaign promise, and if we're just not going to do shit that people can actively point to and say "this made my life better", we're fucked. Or perhaps you're talking about putting Manchin and Sinema in an uncomfortable position. If those two are going to prioritize their bullshit maverick image they deserve to feel uncomfortable and take votes that make them look bad. You think West Virginians just don't want to make more money? That is asinine. This is about signalling to these two that while we want to work with them, they are not going to hold Biden's campaign promises hostage for their brand. 72% of Americans want it. They're not going to jump ship over this when push comes to shove.
  22. I mean, don't threaten me with a good time. They should make those two look bad, they deserve to be made to look bad if they vote against it. Back in February of 2020, public sentiment for raising the minimum wage was in the high 60% range (I think 68%), a recent poll found that 72% of Americans (Republicans (62%), Democrats (87%) and Independents (69%)) support raising the minimum wage (whether it is $15 an hour specifically is not stated as far as I can tell, but still), there is not a lot of ground for them to hide on this. I'd think that doing it as part of the relief package actually gives Manchin and Sinema the ability to protect their garbage mavrick brand for voting for it since they can say they knew that Americans couldn't afford to not get the relief they so desperately need. Not as many as you may think, as evidenced by the poll I posted, as well as how even in red states things like minimum wage hikes are passing. This and cannabis legalization are winning issues with most voters, no matter how loud the opposition is about it.
  23. The parliamentarian can be overruled, they're just not going to do it. That said, I say put on the floor and make every one of those craven fucks who oppose it vote no.
  24. One interesting thing to think about here that I've heard floated online is maybe there is an upside to Tanden flaming out here. If you think about it, this gives Manchin a win, he gets to go back to his constituents and say he sunk Tanden, and maybe that gives Schumer some ammunition to get him in line on the minimum wage. This is probably just folks looking for a hit of copeium, but hope springs eternal.
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