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About Squab

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  1. Federal labor suffers the same disadvantage as qld lnp, before covid lnp were polling well ahead. Surely once covid becomes normal or resolved opinions will tighten, especially in a recession.
  2. Betting agencies show Queensland is very close. Looking at different types of government, they're offering ALP majority as favourite but only just and its very close. ALP have a 2 seat majority. They will lose at least 1 to the greens, if not 2. If there is any swing away from ALP, Mundingburra will go to the lnp. Cairns might also be in play as they all went up to announce a new hospital even though we don't have 2 cents to rub together. A couple of ministers resigned surprisingly in seats that i wouldn't have thought were in play so the swing might be larger than polling suggests. Annastacia Palaszczuk's approval rating is high through covid as expected but is the lowest approval compared with other premiers in Australia. Last comparison i saw had her even trailing Chairman Dan. I'm sure if you cut that up by area, her approval in Brisbane would be higher which is what matters as ALP wins Qld government in the Brisbane suburbs, not in rural seats. ALP doesn't hold a seat outside of a coastal centre, hence buying the AFL final for Brisbane a week before the election for an undisclosed amount, "commercial in confidence" was the premiers reply. ALP suffer from the normal divide between left and right over things like Adani to the point that the CFMEU calling the dominant left faction a creche for party hacks focused on internal struggles rather than workers. Plus ALP has the stink of corruption on it. Jackie Trad was found to have done nothing wrong twice then stood down from deputy premier anyway. There are a few other examples that stink too. As politicians are unable to gauge their constituents, the state government spent half a million taxpayer dollars polling Queenslanders about the border closure but refuse to release the results to the people who paid for it. To avoid scrutiny on unemployment rates (much worse than Aus average) and mining, the deputy Premier spends his time picking fights with the feds over the Qld border which is likely popular in Brisbane where all the elites and hippies can now travel back and forth to byron bay or nimbin without quarantine. They hold very few seats that rely on interstate tourism (maybe only cairns and cook) so closed borders aren't so much an issue for jobs in seats they have to win. Go over the great divide to western Qld and NSW where there have been no cases of covid, if you try to cross the border, the qld govt. will force you into quarantine in a crappy Brisbane hotel of their choosing at your cost. Unless you are an AFL VIP or Tom Hanks in which case you get a beachside resort. I am unsure if the ALP realise anything over the divide exists. LNP leader Deb Frecklington has normal state opposition leader issues where nobody knows who she is and this is highlighted more with Covid and the government being in front of the media every day. She is also seen as very negative meaning her approval is terrible and its been that way for some time. She was recently challenged for leadership and only just won so now the smell of disunity follows her everywhere. She holds Sir Joh's old seat which contains a coal mine and power station highlighting the divide between the parties. There have been some changes that have affected things too. The government is now allowed to advertise using taxpayer funds up until the caretaker period which means we hear the ALP leaders spruiking their plans every time we watch youtube, go for a drive or turn the idiot box on. Also, funding laws have changed cutting off the lnp from many of their donations. Teena whatever her name is (liberal party Vice President) estimates ALP and unions have already spent more in the campaign than LNP will and we are still a month out. Believe that with a grain of salt but any advantage will show in the marginal seats which ALP will need to hold. The recent "independent" redistribution of seats has also helped ALP where they could easily lose the state TPP vote but win government. With Coalition in power federally and the ALP state government in front of camera everyday plus a spending and advertising advantage, ALP should have the inside track, although I still think there will be a swing against them. How much and where will determine the result. To finally answer your question, if i were inclined to bet, i would put equal amounts (or near enough to) on ALP minority ($3.50) and LNP majority ($3.00) and make money on either of those results assuming ALP don't get a majority due a swing against them and LNP cant form minority due to having to try to deal with Katter and one nation.
  3. I haven't seen it but will when life isn't interrupting. School holidays here now so i might get a chance to get the kids to watch it with me. I don't have any social media other than the obligatory linkedin i never check as it seems to just be sales and people looking for work. I think the way many sites are run exacerbates the polarisation as so many are averse to anything not following whatever narrative they are pushing. Posts (even if factual) that don't display the political leaning or narrative they're looking for get deleted and threads can run off into some silly fan-fiction based in very few facts but more the fear or fantasy of the 20% of members who make 80% of the posts. All sites have sets of rules about insults and personal attacks etc. but they tend to be applied differently based on the political leanings of the alleged offender. Same with media, very little balance on any one site. Not only in the actual reporting and blurring of opinion and fact but also in what is chosen as ok to report. It all leads to polarisation and a lack of nuance. But at least they pass the political purity test and don't get caught allowing the oppositions talking points.
  4. I would guess zero. Communist countries fail long before the mores of society change that much.
  5. Victorian government advice was no requirement to isolate if you don't have symptoms while awaiting test results. Looks like chairman Dan has the ministry of truth going back ensuring records reflect the correct narrative though, should all be fixed soon.
  6. I don't know if you are joking but apparently now having a loving family is an unfair advantage. And reading to your kids? Well, you're just disadvantaging other children. Not from some crazy left wing news outlet either, or is it... They will ban a group of people or loosely defined set of ideas and then expand that group to include anyone committing wrongthink. Lets all agree to ban Nazis and then anyone to the right of about Pol Pot gets called a Nazi or Nazi apologist. And don't tell me they aren't all about redefining words to suit that purpose. Latest one I've seen is property damage is not violence but words are.
  7. Lol, the responses range from how do we talk to the dumbasses to who cares about the dumbasses with some insults thrown in. One of you even said they read a book about someone who was speaking to dumbasses once. Its almost like you took below literally.
  8. What now? Such an unhealthy obsession with kids must make you a Biden fanboy. Apart from being an Australian who leans more libertarian than liberal, the rest is malarkey. Anyone who makes baseless accusations like that is probably projecting. Im actually surprised its ok to post that shit
  9. Different people are offended by different things and when someone uses being offended as a reason to shut down someone, by definition that “offended” person is privileged. Quite frankly, its hard to discuss taboo topics
  10. Im sure you’re all glad to know in 2019 we briefly became the worlds largest exporter of LNG, overtaking Qatar. I know, great news for workers. Also, coal exports are expected to rise year on year till the end of 2025. I found this a surprise as the guardian, the age and #theirabc have been predicting coals demise for years. Its almost as if their news departments have become ideological... Also looks like Adelaide is becoming a future for activity https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-18/equinor-receives-environmental-approval-to-drill-in-bight/11811534
  11. Political correctness is fascism masquerading as manners. If you can get out of that, then its more balanced but its the gutter. And not even slightly. Its wading though a lot of poo for something thats not even great but at least its balanced
  12. Same applies but i agree that the modern left has basically become a new version of the religious right. Both totally laughable
  13. Agreed on the fact people can make bad decisions. Thats obvious. My argument is: if you think that you know what is best for someone (or a group of people) better than they do, then you are likely to lose elections consistently and not understand why
  14. Regardless, you are deferred to in all decisions because you know whats best for you. Have you never hired a plumber? Have you never hired anyone? Thats the idea of hiring someone, you get advice but you and you alone know whats best for you... unless someone else has power of attorney in which case, ask a lawyer
  15. Let me make it simpler for you: what you think is better for me is different than what i think is better for me and you pushing the point proves you are, at heart, authoritarian. The ETA proves your upper class snobbishness. Absolute failure to see another persons perspective because you are better than them. I dont think you know what is best for someone better than they do which is why i support euthanasia. After you tell me you know whats better for my life than i do, you’ll happily remove me from societal decisions and implement true socialism (until it fails and gets called something else)
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