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Ran

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Everything posted by Ran

  1. But it is representative of ASoIaF, which everyone knows -- because GRRM has been explicit -- was one of the major influences on the world depicted in ASoIaF. He even thought that maybe he should be writing a straight Wars of the Roses historical novel back in 1991.
  2. Sexual harrasment is not the same thing as sexual assault. The court filing says Reade told her friend that she was harrased, and does not reference assault nor is it clear that Biden was the harraser. This is more in line with her public claims until this year. It fits what her mother called Larry King about.
  3. What I find the most troubling in McGann's story is the friend whom McGann had down as saying this last year: And then now: This doesn't make me feel like everything is on the up-and-up...
  4. Laura McGann's piece at Vox about her attempts to cover the Tara Reade story is very good. AKA as the story Mexal posted. Read it, my friends. "Horrifingly consistent" is not how any person with an interest in being fair-minded would see her account. She has made it very hard to figure out the truth.
  5. Agreed. The "eternal" thing is some real goalpost shifting. But they loved him enough for this, from Tyrion's first chapter in ASoS: Yep. Cersei would never trust Robert's brothers, and vice-versa. This notion that Renly could ever be allied with the Lannisters is cuckoo. Renly would never be safe in the Lannister court, because he was too much an equal, and equals would not be borne. Could he be executed? Sure he could. Could he die by "accident" or by "illness", ostensibly free or while imprisoned? Sure. Given this reality, opposing Joffrey is the only rational choice. crowning himself -- whether as the king of the Seven Kingdoms or the king of the Reach and the Stormlands -- or backing some other king that is not Joffrey are the only actual choices before him.
  6. This is what I get for skimming articles. You're quite right. It seems they weren't diagnosed with anything in particular in November, and it was just one of those things. Five of them were tested for antibodies in April, and one was positive, and the doctor in the region who ordered the tests actually said he thought that was probably just someone who got infected in March and doubted the theory, but allowed for the fact that the antibody test was new and there was a chance of false negatives. Four of five being false negatives seems highly unlikely in even some of the less specific tests, however.
  7. Ditto. That was the material I most lamented having to cut down so harshly for TWoIaF.
  8. It should be noted that it is speculation that Stannis had a formal ceremony, or that that ceremony happened at any point long prior to Cressen's prologue. It is never addressed. One can easily see a situation where Stannis expects a flock of people to come seeking him, and that he holds off a formal crowning or declaration in that time to increase the witnesses. Then time passes longer and longer, things move ahead of him, and he reluctantly takes the crown with his paltry handful of codfish lords to stand witness to it. We don't really know. So it's better to focus on what we do know, which is that Westeros at large knows Renly has crowned himself looooong before Westeros knows Stannis has.
  9. FWIW, a number of Swedish military personnel went to some sort of military athletic games in Wuhan in October, and a bunch of them came back sick in November. All were tested with very early testing, and one was borderline positive -- it's quite likely that the quality of the test available in November was at issue, because the symptoms all fit. I believe they were all isolated until well and nothing came of that. Google shows some reporting that the French delegation to the same athletic event also believe they had a suspicious illness, but not sure if there has been any follow up on that.
  10. That's in the first Davos chapter. What he did prior to the Davos chapter is attempt to quietly get some people to side with him over Joffrey and Renly, and mostly met failure. He did not tell the occupant of the Iron Throne that he was laying a claim until later. That's his declaration. No, they already had. Davos was sent to try and win over anyone uncommitted and to try and win back anyone who had already committed to Renly. Stannis just assumed everyone would come flocking to him, I guess, and when they didn't -- and Renly stole the march on him -- he dispatched Davos. Stannis had been recruiting ever since he abandoned Robert to his doom in King's Landing, it seems; see Varys in AGoT: That is not a declaration, however. I mean, Catelyn travels for a month or two between her first and second chapter. She only learns that Stannis has named himself king at Bitterbridge. That's how bloody late Stannis was. Renly and Robb were crowned and she had time enough to travel hundreds of miles overland to Bitterbridge before hearing about it.
  11. Indeed. @dsjj251 You're probably resting on the technicality that Stannis probably acted as king as soon as he heard of Robert's death. And I'd even grant that it was very likely that Stannis did. But if you call yourself king and the realm you claim to rule doesn't know about it, are you really king? If people can't say, "And there's King Stannis we can turn to" because you're not telling them what your intentions are, you can't really complain that others have the jump on you. In any case, it is 100% clear that Renly announced to the realm he was king a long time before Stannis announced to the realm he was king.
  12. As others note, all the evidence -- from Pycelle, Cersei, Catelyn, Renly -- is that he did not know about it. That said, it's not stupid to think Cersei was going to move against him and Stannis because as Robert's brothers they would have a claim on having some involvement (possibly as regents) for her son. In any case, Varys explicitly tells Ned in the cells: He does not inform the realm he is contesting for the throne, and the basis for it, until the ravens are sent in ACoK. According to one of the best fan-made timelines trying to piece it all together, the time between Robert's death and Stannis's proclamation is ~5 months, while the time between Robert's death and Renly being crowned in Highgarden is ~3 months. Stannis certainly had some reason to keep quiet, but taking that long to even let people know he was contesting for the Iron Throne was a mistake. It's hard to blame Renly for moving in this regard. What Davos says is that Renly has formed a Rainbow Guard, which is news. Cressen and co. already knew that Renly had crowned himself. It's certainly true that Stannis would believe himself rightful king and go by that style on Dragonstone when he received news of Robert's death, but it's also clear that the day they send the letter is even in Stannis's own view his public proclamation. After all, the letter contains this wording:
  13. RIP EHK. He is definitely missed. Stego showed up in the politics threads recently and may still be lurking there.
  14. While he has been long gone from the board, I do have @SergioCQH on FB and just yesterday he started his residency as an MD. Which surprised me and, apparently, some of his schoolmates, who'd assumed he'd have been satisfied with the JD he already had. He was always a pretty sharp fellow on the board. I remember him working out some of the physics if you tried to build a 700-foot-tall wall of Ice...
  15. Materials related to TWoW should be discussed in the TWoW forum.
  16. Marist College, a high school, yes. My understanding is there's an associated elementary school where there have been cases, but these seem to be household transmission (older siblings passing it to parents and younger siblings). @karaddin Sure, but this is the experience in other places. Not just Sweden, France as well for certain, and countries in Europe that shut down schools are reopening them because the incidence in serious illness in children is so rare.
  17. Thanks. The reports of these basically seem to be of the "some person tested positive, maybe" (the Bothell one was "a relative of someone who works here is maybe positive") and I can't find any further reporting providing evidence of any kind of clusters at these schools. Bothell's also a high school, and for Science Reasons that I am only vaguely familiar with it's primary and elementary schools that are recommended to be open, not high schools. People who work with others, people who use public transport, etc. Besides the fact that children's immune systems may be just very good at tackling this, children also are less likely to transmit it because they displace less air with their coughs, and with less force, so droplet transmission would be reduced. There's this whole thing in pediatrics about how children don't necessarily cough in situations that would make adults cough, as well, and so far most kids who have been tested as having it seem to not cough or barely cough and so on.
  18. First I've heard of this. Any thing I can Google on it? I'd be curious about primary and elementary school cases, specifically. And day cares, I suppose. I've tried searching and am coming up with nothing along those lines, except for very early cases of "We closed because one person was/maybe was sick" and no real evidence of clusters of infections associated with these situations. Australia seems to have had a similar experience to Sweden, FWIW.
  19. Yep. Social safety nets need to be very high to get people to behave properly. In Sweden, you get sick leave payments (80% of regular salary) from day 1, without any need for a doctor's note for at least two weeks -- we simply trust people who say they have any kind of symptoms associated with SARS-CoV-2 (e.g. even just a minor cough or sneezes) are being honest, and are doing the right thing by taking time off work. Most of the US isn't in that position. You can't do everything in Sweden's approach because conditions in the US are not very like Sweden's in terms of healthcare. Reopening primary and elementary schools is about the only thing I'd recommend for the US. There is no evidence of schools in Stockholm, our hardest-hit city, causing clusters of infection. In all this time with open schools, we've only had an issue at one school, in the small city of SkellefteƄ. There a teacher died and 18 of the staff were found to have or have had infection, but from the examinations and interviews they've taken it was the teachers passing it among themselves from their interactions in meetings, the teacher's lounge, and in the offices. Obviously, reopening schools would require some efforts to change conditions for teachers and staff, re: where they hold meetings, how many adults in a room, etc. Care needs to be taken. Regular schooling is very important developmentally, and for many children in the US it is an important part of their food security (through subsidized breakfast and lunch) and in some cases their personal safety (re: domestic violence and child abuse). Epidemiological estimates from Sweden and Norway's health authorities believe that only 2-4% less spread would happen from school closures, and so far this appears to be born out, which is why Denmark and Norway were reopening schools.
  20. Seems like the Australian intelligence service is batting back Pompeo's claims of "enormous" intelligence information pointing to a lab-related situation, noting that the document the US has been circulating among the Five Eyes intelligence sharing group is mostly just rehashed news stories with no actual new intelligence work. In other news, Slovenia will be releasing full official results tomorrow, but they've publicized that their first national test for antibodies -- some 1300 participants -- found between 2% and 4% had antibodies at a 95% confidence interval. The samples were taken from April 20 "and onwards", but not sure what the median date is.
  21. Actually heard quite good things about The Little Drummer Girl. Seems he wrote half the episodes. OTOH, no previous show running experience, so who knows. I have to admit I got tired of Mr. Robot somewhere in its 2nd season, and never bothered with it again. Very bold and self-assured show anchored by a phenomenal performance, but Esmail's narrative instincts were on a different track from what I was interested in. So the earlier news that he was involved didn't excite me very much.
  22. That's not actually what you said. What you said is this: Emphasis mine. Which was in response to my noting that the reduction of deaths, ICU usage, and hospital bed usage in Stockholm was likely evidence of the effect of ~26% being infected since our strategy has been unchanged since March and yet the trend is downward. The "without infection control measures" thing was a non sequitor since no one has claimed Sweden has not taken control measures.
  23. Finished Community. Season 5 was uneven to start with but there was a string of episodes in the back half that had some spark, particularly "Advanced Advanced Dungeons and Dragons", "GI Jeff", and the Meowmeowbeanz episode. Season 6 became ever more self-aware and meta, in some ways, but I thought the new cast members worked well enough even if one did miss Troy and Shirley... and, frankly, Pierce. I think he was a better foil to the characters than Chang turned out to be (Chang was best in the first seasons, IMO, and didn't work so well when they tried to include him in the group). Chase was impossible to work with, at least for Harmon, but one wonders the road less travelled if they had Season 6 found a kind of mellow, easy groove, with some fun callbacks and ideas -- "Wedding Videography" had me laughing my head off when it took its incestuous turn, and the tag at the end was jut brilliant -- but never really reached the highs of the best seasons. Until, that is, the final episode, which is surely one of the best sitcom finales of all time. Emotional, funny, with genuine heart, and a terrific final bit where Harmon gets some things off his chest in that sloppy, confessional way of his that felt equally heartfelt and was a beautiful breaking of the fourth wall. S5 and S6 didn't have me glued the way S1-S3 did, but I'm glad I powered through the gas leak season and past some of the uneven stuff to get to that end. Now, where's that movie? Troy and LeVar have to get back from their epic journey around the world on the Childish Tycoon!
  24. It made her harder to kill, hence her defeating Maeve.
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