GRRM has a mix and mach aproche to historical events in the ASOIAF.That is why its hard to pinpoint who or whar event is he based someon or something.We all know that Red wedding was based on the Bartholomeaus Night,staged by lovely Katalin Medici,but we also have another reference on her.Maggy the Frogs prophecy about Scerseys children sounds a lot like the one Nostradamus gave to Katalin abouth hers.He toled her that she will live to see all of her children wear the crown,and she will see all of them die