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Everything posted by chrisdaw

  1. You purposely misrepresent what GRRM says and spread misinformation.
  2. I don't think it is. Unless the Bard of Banefort can show where GRRM has "explicitly said that Olenna poisoned Joffrey" they should stop repeatedly saying he has.
  3. And I'd disagree, Mace is the bumbling fool precisely as shown, a vain transparent glory seeker without the intelligence to understand there are inward and outward faces, he thinks it's all genuine. He will lead the Tyrells to destruction exactly as Olenna fears. Most likely he will seize Margaery by force because he's too stupid to understand the consequences even after Kevan explained them to him. Mace and Olenna do not work in tandem, Olenna does her best to dissuade Mace of his stupidity, and when he pats her on the head and carries on anyway she works in the shadows to try and stop him getting everyone killed.
  4. Olenna is not the true power of the Tyrells or did any of this. Olenna is an isolationist who if she were the power behind House Tyrell would not have risked the well being of her family in realm affairs. If she had her way they'd have all stayed home. Mace makes marriages and moves armies, Olenna comes along and works in the background to try and mitigate the personal damage his moves make and to protect her naive unassuming Brady Bunch of a family.
  5. There was a plot between Olenna and Littlefinger to poison Joffrey but Olenna did not follow through on it and carry out the poisoning. She didn't because Joffrey and Margaery were drinking from the same cup (chalice), an unforeseen circumstance that prevented Olenna from carrying out the plan. She loves Margaery and would not risk hurting her. Margaery is no player and not part of the poisoning plot. To think otherwise is to fundamentally misread her character and to miss the point. The point is through Cersei's self projecting power obsessed paranoid eyes the good natured, dutiful daughter and family orientated pawn Margaery appears a threat. Margaery's natural and innocent attempts to become closer to her husband and do her duty as queen appear to Cersei as power grabs, because Cersei is Cersei, and they appear that way to us too because we're looking (reading) through Cersei's eyes. Margaery's "push back", comically minor as they are, are the frustrations of a new wife believing she's being stifled by an overbearing mother-in-law from from taking her place in her husband's life. It's obvious in retrospect but undeniable at the point of Marge's and Cersei's conversation in ADWD. The supposed power player who took part in a murder conspiracy with her grandmother to kill the 12 year old king, Cersei's son, didn't suspect a thing until Cersei tripped over herself with her poor acting performance, and even then she thinks it's about the love of a mother for a son and is genuinely indignant towards Cersei. For Margaery to be this scheming murderous player would be wildly inconsistent with how the revelations and reactions in that passage play out. When GRRM has Mace repeat ad nauseam that Margaery was drinking from the same chalice he's throwing in the readers faces the spanner in the works. None of this is to say how Joffrey came to die, as GRRM literally said on the matter he may have more surprises to reveal. That's probably the purpose of this passage where GRRM goes out of his way to differentiate Jaime's and Loras's actions in rage. Generally the Lannisters prize power over family, and Cersei will take a beating for the power that comes with being queen, not to say Jaime thinks like Cersei but she's going to hold him back. The Tyrells prize family first, just Mace (and frankly everyone except Olenna) doesn't understand the power he's coveting comes at the price of the safety of his family. It's a big theme in ASOIAF the priority of family within family circles. House Tully words for example and the in text point that family comes first. The Tyrells are family first power second and exist to contrast with Lannisters who are, when push comes to shove, power first.
  6. Aegon and Dany will dance, there'll be a Great Council to decide the king after them. Aegon takes the throne, the dance happens and Dany kills him, Dany takes the throne, the people revolt against Dany and she's ousted. After TWOT5Ks and the second dance, a large portion of the competence and ambition in the realm will be dead and people won't have much of a stomach left for more war. The Faith will step into the leadership void, but a king to rule will be desired just through precedence, and there will be no obvious, viable, desired and willing candidates. Cersei will be screaming some claim that would bring her to power again, but no-one will want that. A Great Council will be called, and so comes the payoff to Sansa's political education, having political connections to many a great house in Westeros as well as being personally bad with numbers before her arc (either she gets good and it's an indication of her progressing to a calculating schemer, or she has to rely on Arya to do her counting for her, indicating that they're capable of great things if they can work together).
  7. Everything you bring up will be relevant but you seem to be assuming an absence of Tyrion in it all that you shouldn't be. Tyrion will be in Westeros riding Viserion before Sansa leaves the Vale, and the Westerlands will be one thing the power couple take that she won't need to argue they're entitled to. But yes, when the new Lady Lannister starts bossing about the Westerland houses it will seem to Cersei and reader alike that the YMBQ has arrived.
  8. I will bet on Aeron.
  9. I disagree. It's rather simple as the text gives it to us plain, unrelenting justice is mercilessness is Stannis of which the text is very concerned with rejecting.
  10. I don't agree that the text positions Dany in a comparable way to Stannis as the most terrifying creature in existence. The hardest I would suggest the text goes at Dany (and I do look a lot and hard) is "monster" and that's in her inner POV voice. Most other moralistic judgements of Dany are given with a wink, be they laced with comedy because we know them to be nonsense (bathes in the blood of virgins) or because they come from ethically compromised slavers. There is no effort to portray Dany as merciless like there is Stannis, and the importance of mercy and the evils of being merciless is clearly a major theme (Stoneheart, Arya, the Mother, Sandor) within the text. The text doesn't make the case that Dany is the most terrifying creature on earth, you have to reach for it here and there and piece together that case yourself. The text does state plainly that Stannis is the most terrifying creature on earth, that's why I can simply quote the text at you when you try and imply it's in our heads.
  11. I gave you quotes of how the text is framing Stannis. Do you have an example of the text framing Dany as something comparable to the most terrifying creature on earth?
  12. What's the text telling you? This is the more overt stuff, of which there is enough, but the nitty gritty foreshadowing of Stannis to the Others seems to go on forever.
  13. Some things to keep in mind with Stannis. Stannis is taking the form of a shadow birthed from a sorceress and running around in the night killing people, including his own brother. This is some dark horror story stuff as. GRRM wants us to know. Magic isn't going away, this storyline isn't going away, magic is becoming stronger and will play a bigger and bigger role in the series as it progresses. We are going to find out what will happen when Mel attempts a shadow baby with life drained Stannis, and I suggest it's not going to be sedate. Mel herself says she's going to be bringing forth some terrible shadows. The other key things is the HOTU overt foreshadowing. There will be a confrontation between Dany and Stannis. This is chunky stuff, it's not going to be low-key.
  14. In ASOIAF ice represents dispassionate calculation, commonly of the mind. An example is the reasoning Varys gives in AGOT for assassinating Dany. Fire is passionate action, commonly of the heart, an example would be Dany saving MMD. ASOIAF argues that the best course of action is sometimes fire and sometimes ice, that it's a matter of judgement depending on the situation and that one should never go wholly one way. ASOIAF is an argument for moderation. ASOIAF is in the process of making the point that It would be better to die to an enemy, for everyone to die to an enemy even, than to sacrifice a child to survive. An intelligent race that would sacrifice their child(ren) to survive do not deserve to survive, they're either so lost to calculation as to be heartless, or so lost to their emotions as to be brainless. Stannis's story is about how a person may come to believe the sacrifice of his child is necessary, right and his duty even. It is about how a person may justify the act. In the belief it is his duty to try to wake a dragon by sacrificing Shireen, Stannis will thematically be going completely to ice and showing himself to have the heart of winter, it will magically lead him to becoming the great enemy of the series. When he dies his true death it will be by being struck by a flaming sword, such a sword is symbolic of justice. The Stannis storyline is highly thematic, will go heavily into the magical/fantasy side of things and doing it correctly will take time. D&D had no interest in any of this.
  15. I think there must be a substantial storyline for Brienne regarding Stannis as if there were not this text would not be included. The morality of it all is I think the point here, and I find it murky. Killing Stannis in battle while he was a threat to Renly is all good and fine, Brienne swore an oath to protect Renly, killing Stannis now though, when Renly is long dead and forgotten is really just revenge. Revenge is the Stoneheart theme and by the time Stoneheart is put to rest the point will have been that revenge is bad. If Stoneheart sends Brienne at Stannis then that's doubly making the point that this isn't the right thing to do. I think Brienne will kill Stannis. She's not hooking up with Sansa on some knights of the Vale crusade, that's fangirl nonsense, but Brienne and Stannis was a thing and unless it was a mistaken abandoned thread it must be resolved. She kills him whilst unsure herself of the morality of doing so. Stannis will second life an ice dragon and become the big bad of the whole series, and so it'll be that Brienne's act of revenge will have helped to bring about a great evil. In an inverse of the AA story I think when Brienne kills Stannis with Oathkeeper (formerly Ice) that part of his soul will enter the sword and it will become ice like, frozen, perhaps crystalline like an Others sword. She may even leave it or lose it in the act and the sword will be Stannis's as an Other who rides the dragon, or form part of the dragon's body.
  16. I agree and it brought me to a chicken/egg type question. Are Tywin's children in part dipshits because of the way he treated them? Or does he treat them that way because they're dipshits? Tywin thinking Tyrion is a clown is fair enough (obviously that doesn't justify everything Tywin did) given their interactions and Tyrion's general carry on. Cersei is extremely near sighted and reactionary. Jaime is the one with sense but while Tywin was alive did everything he could to avoid adulthood and responsibility.
  17. AA is generally about someone second lifing a fire breathing dragon and saving the world against the Others in the Long Night. It will be Dany. Stannis is going to second life as an ice dragon, true to form Mel has just got the two things confused.
  18. She leaves the Vale for KL with Tyrion. It is very well telegraphed how it will go. Tyrion longs to play the hero and protector, to be loved for it, the lion of Lannister. Where she didn't once understand, Sansa has had it explained to her what Tyrion desires and is practicing the art of turning that desire into controllable actions. Through her own doing or LF's the Vale will erupt in civil war and Sansa will become trapped back up the Eyrie, with Robert. A cold white prison where no prayers are answered. Tyrion comes to ride Viserion and when he gets to Westeros flies for the Vale, because; he holds a grudge against Lysa that he intends to satisfy, and; a Lannister always pays their debts. But when he gets there instead of finding Lysa he of course finds his wife, in need of saving. Sansa's prayers will be answered (they always are), she'll play her part as the victim and push Tyrion into his role of the heroic saviour, the Winged Knight come to the rescue. Urgent the moment there'll be no time to address any prior bitterness, and Robert gets to see the bad little man fly as promised. With threat of dragon flame and Sansa's knowledge of the Vale players Tyrion sets the Vale right, bloodlessly, as Visenya did when she flew up to the Eyrie to find Ronnel and Sharra. Tyrion and Sansa move on to King's Landing, as husband and wife go together, to play (and win) the game of thrones in the background of the dance and renew their interdependent arcs. It will touch on multiple themes and hit from different angles, but one key will be that Tyrion will have set out for the Vale with a weapon of mass destruction and very bad intentions, but will instead end up forging a peace without any violence, and the reason will be the presence of Sansa. Sansa is at this stage still known as genuine and innocent, and that's not yet far from the truth, the question will be by the end of her arc after she's become the duplicitous hardened player will she still be able to inspire men to be their better selves?
  19. He doesn't believe it his place to orchestrate the future of Westeros at this point, he believes he shouldn't have to. He simply does his role to the best of his ability and leaves the laws and processes to do their thing, and should a realm with justice in its heart have such an unjust king then the lords and subjects should rise up and prove capable of overthrowing him. It self corrected as it should, but then Tywin killed the children and Robert rewarded him for it, destroying Varys's faith in Westeros working as intended and turning him into the intervening king making conspirator he is now. The 'children' changed everything for him, hence why he keeps harping back to it whenever the facade drops.
  20. Lys is a place where anything can be bought for a price, and children and slaves like Varys was are without any protection. Westeros at least aspires to be different, a place where the vulnerable, including children, are theoretically protected by laws and given justice. This ideal is what attracted Varys to Westeros, but he's also a realist, he understands that accounting for every injustice done a parentless street urchin is not within the means of the crown and is a societal work in progress. But for the murder of the royal children and failure of the crown to provide them justice there can be no excuse, at that point the sentiment becomes a farce. And so turns Varys from the loyalist servant to an active game player hell bent on putting his own man on the throne, one that will recommit the crown to attempting justice.
  21. It was simply too early in AGOT to kick things off as Aegon/Drogo wasn't ready. The realm falling into chaos then would have possibly allowed it time to deal with the internal struggle, stabalise and strengthen, and team Aegon could have missed the window of opportunity.
  22. Drogon is the second life of Drogo and Rhaego was a required sacrifice to make it happen. Euron's plan is to intentionally repeat what Drogo did by getting a dragon blooded woman pregnant, sacrificing the child, dying himself, and second lifing Drogon, it's what his horn does. Euron will succeed, and when he second lifes Drogon the dragon will reflect Euron's blood and character, and Drogon will become the stone Beast. The stone beast will be useless to Dany as it won't breathe fire and will become more and more stone and eventually she won't be able to control it. Dany will want to turn Drogon back to what he was, to a weapon of war that secures her power. What she will want to do is wake the dragon from stone and return it's fiery heart, and so kick in all the AA stories and symbolism. Having been a part of Drogo's second lifing and around for Euron's, Dany will have a good idea how this all works, and the first step is getting herself pregnant. The AA story told by Salladhor Saan is the story of Dany trying to get pregnant in this endeavor. The temple with the sacred flame is her womb, the forging conception and labor, the sword the child and each failed attempt a miscarriage. The blood lines matter, and the failed attempt by water will be old Valyrian blooded Aurane Waters, and the lion will be Viserion-riding and so thought Targ bastard Tyrion.
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