chrisdaw

On 4/14/2024 at 2:11 AM, Gertrude said:

I know this one is controversial and it's maybe split in the fandom, but I like the theory that Tyrion is a Targ. The reason I like it though, is not for what it does for the current story, but because it makes Tywin's backstory so much richer. If he knows, then his whole relationship with Aerys makes more sense and is more tragic. Particularly the move Aerys made in denying Jaime as his heir and leaving Tyrion in his place, like a changeling baby. 

I don't know if i buy it though, because of the repercussions for the current story, It's repetitive and I'm not sure what it adds. It gives Dany a third dragon rider and ... that's it? Gives her another trigger for betrayal? Does she need another?

Why would you jump to framing Tyrion being a Targ as being all about Dany?

The forsaken is ironic. Aeron has not been forsaken by his god as Euron believes and taunts him by. He's going to die, but he's not going to stay dead, he will feast in the Drowned God's watery hall and rise again harder and stronger.

The King's Prize makes me wonder if she'll be a prize but for another king. Asha gains an understanding of the northmen's loyalties in this chapter and that come around to helping make Jon.

In the Sacrifice Theon turns up right at the end so the sacrifice may refer to him, which would align with the next (later) chapter, but he's not dying now at that tree. Some possibilities,

- Asha may end up sacrificing something of her self for mercy (like accepting a marriage) for Theon,

- she may later in the story sacrifice Leon to save the Ironborn or the forces she commands.

I think Caraxes is a ghost parallel.

Very confident he will fight Viserion (but not alone, during a proper battle) and very likely at HH/God's Eye. Probably he helps kill or severely injure Viserion, in the act he is possibly also killed or severely injured by Viserion.

Possibly he lives so that there can be an ambiguous ending for Jon, as in did Jon really die or did he second life into Ghost?

Look the part for sure.

Volantis will fall by Tyrion. He literally thinks about how to take the city in ADWD.

Tyrion will no doubt fall under Dany's command, though he will be just playing the happy helper for a time waiting for an opportunity to strike out for himself, but that won't be happening before Westeros.

The questions are will Dany even be there. The scenario might be that Tyrion takes Volantis in Dany's name with or without her direction/blessing. If he is there, he'll simply advise her and prove his use to her and gain her favour when his plan is completely successful.

Volantis will rally to her cause from the inside, and Dany's forces will dominate outside or at the walls, Tyrion will advise Dany or himself do what must be done to bring the taking of the city to fruition. He will light the fuse.

Key to it will be Benerro, likely Tyrion either gets a secret message to Benerro via an agent or himself infiltrates the city in order to co-ordinate the attack with Benerro.

No Dany is the moon. Moon of my life, Drogo sun and stars.

Particularly the moon is pregnant Dany. The moon drank from the sun, Dany was impregnated by Drogo, the moon cracked and brought forth dragons, Dany gave "birth" to Rhaego and his soul served to bring forth dragons.

That there will be another moon is foreshadowing Dany being pregnant again and again bringing forth a child to bring forth dragons. It won't play out that way, but Dany will believe it must, that she she must bring forth a child to sacrifice to bring forth a dragon to save the world, which will see her attempt to get pregnant by dragon blooded men culminating in a pregnancy by Jon.

The AA story foreshadows her attempted pregnancies which will fail (miscarriages). Water for Aurane Waters (possibly Euron but not likely), Lion for Tyrion (who will ride Viserion so she'll believe has Targ blood), and finally Nissa Nissa fully obscures Jon because a Jon and Dany hook up is rather obvious and any real reference would be immediately puzzled out.

There's many a foreshadowing for all parts to this but with specific regard to pregnant Dany being moon the description of the moon above Valyria in a Dance Tyrion chapter is most telling.

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Only the brightest stars were visible, all to the west. A dull red glow lit the sky to the northeast, the color of a blood bruise. Tyrion had never seen a bigger moon. Monstrous, swollen, it looked as if it had swallowed the sun and woken with a fever. Its twin, floating on the sea beyond the ship, shimmered red with every wave. "What hour is this?" he asked Moqorro. "That cannot be sunrise unless the east has moved. Why is the sky red?"

Note the language used to describing the moon being akin to a pregnant woman (swollen, fever, the waves likely referring to contractions) and having swallowed the sun aligning with the moon having paired with the sun from Doreah's telling, which represents conception. Note also the nod with MMD's words regarding when Drogo will be as he was, when the sun will rise and set in the wrong directions. Monster is a constant in the foreshadowing, dragons are described as monsters many a time including by Dany, and that she is the mother of monsters. The bright stars (as Drogo is described because he was one) to the west are references to the position of the men to whom she will conceive and where she will conceive by them, all in Westeros. It's relevant to Tyrion and so pops up in his chapter because he will be one of the stars, one man by which Dany will conceive.

Bran. I want the resolution, or continuation, to Jojen paste. I remember first reading Bran's last chapter in Dance without knowing it was his last chapter and thinking yeah he's eaten Jojen, and the implications of that coming out are crazy and interesting and I can't wait to get to his next chapter. A decade later and still waiting, excitedly.

She was dying and her soul had gone inside the egg, that's what waking the dragon means, death and second life as a dragon, it is her 'home' beyond the red door. The process was occurring for her, Rhaego and Drogo (and Viserys and MMD), but Dany didn't die, she survived so her soul snapped back to her body. Her soul brings back dragon blood with it, so she's able to survive a night in a funeral pyre. Drogo's and Rhaego's souls have made it into the eggs and on waking and in her near death state Dany understands this, that's why she thinks the eggs are the most important things in the world.

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"Yes, Khaleesi." Quick as that Jhiqui was gone, bolting from the tent, shouting. Dany needed … something … someone … what? It was important, she knew. It was the only thing in the world that mattered. She rolled onto her side and got an elbow under her, fighting the blanket tangled about her legs. It was so hard to move. The world swam dizzily. I have to …

They found her on the carpet, crawling toward her dragon eggs.

 

Note the someone, the eggs are now a someone, Drogo and Rhaego.

The same thing, getting 99% dead and soul into a dragon egg only to be pulled back out and survive, will have happened to Rhaegar at Summerhall. Having gone that deep and back will have given him a healthy mix of dragon blood too and that will have granted him Dragon Dreams and prove the reason he was obsessed with pursuing prophecy, he's constantly being hit with wake the dragon style dreams. It's why he's going to have an understanding of how to wake the dragon, that it requires at minimum a Rhaego style sacrifice, and hence why he's a sad sack writing songs about the deaths of kings and is morose at the birth of his son, he's spent his life believing first himself and then his children are going to be needed to be sacrificed to wake the dragon.

Tyrion Sansa Jaime/Sandor/Everyone. Sansa will be out to manipulate everyone, and Tyrion's inferiority complex will see him go mad with jealousy every time she smiles at a man taller than him.

There is some chance for Arya being involved with a love triangle as she will love Gendry but marry elsewhere for duty, and she's one of few characters (Tyrion being the obvious other) to display jealousy.

Arya and Sansa will live.

Asha and Brienne will live.

Gendry and Robert Arryn will live.

Basically everyone else will die, Jon, Dany, Tyrion, Jaime, Cersei, Theon, Sandor, Arianne, Melisandre, Barry, Vic, Euron, Stannis, though some will live on in second lifes (Vic and Dany for certain, Jon likely, Lannister siblings possibly).

Bran, Sam Edmure and Pod not 100% on, think they live.

4 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

It could be argued that the Osgrey situation is the odd one out, since he has tiny domains, only a few villages, no real set of retainers...whereas Lady Rohanne shows up with six knights and squires, mounted crossbowmen, etc. Only 33 in total for her, but better trained and equipped than any of poor old Osgrey's. And she's hardly a rich lady compared to others we've seen.

And if she was up against it she'd have called in all available arms and the bulk of them would be like Osgrey's. Sure there's a tip of the spear, but when he gives us that Sworn Sword call to arms and training and writing that they took pot boys with stolen kitchen knives in the War of the Nine Penny Kings I doubt GRRM is setting up conventional Westeros armies as professional fighting forces.

35 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

That the showrunners appropriated (if clumsily) the name of an existing but unrelated character for their "big bad" also suggests that there wasn't one in the outline story they got from GRRM.

It makes sense when you consider they had no interested in Stannis and the heavy magic side of things and wanted to shrink the story and get out. They were also very conscious of not revealing story beats/twists, they basically cut and ran after the published material, before even.

Stannis won't necessarily lead them but he will be a linchpin, a focal point that when defeated will end the threat or turn the tide.

51 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Yeah, no, that is just wrong.

First, Westerosi soldiers are not farmers. In fact, literally nothing we see in the books supports the idea that majority of Westerosi soldiers are "a pack of farmers with regular lives and so a lot to lose". These are well-trained, well-equipped men with decent training in drill and organization, in no way inferior to actual medieval armies in discipline:

https://warfantasy.wordpress.com/2023/11/09/proof-that-westerosi-armies-are-professionals/

https://warfantasy.wordpress.com/2023/11/09/military-of-westeros-1-organization-and-manpower/

https://warfantasy.wordpress.com/2023/11/09/military-of-westeros-2-tactics/

https://warfantasy.wordpress.com/2023/11/09/military-of-westeros-3-weapons-and-equipment/

https://warfantasy.wordpress.com/2023/11/09/military-of-westeros-4-conclusions-and-implications/

Second, Unsullied and Dothraki are overrated. Being a "warrior who lives for a battle" means little and less when you lack a brain and/or proper equipment for battle.

Yeah I disagree as it is literally in the Sworn Sword, that's one of the themes of the story.

On 12/17/2023 at 5:01 AM, Aldarion said:

Unsullied and Dothraki are some of the worse armies in Planetos. Literally ANY army in Planetos that is not from their portion of Western Essos (so, Dothraki Sea + Slaver's Bay) can easily beat them in battle.

I don't agree. A conventional Westeros army are a pack of farmers with regular lives and so a lot to lose, they've got every reason to break in battle whereas the Unsullied and Dothraki are warriors who live for battle.

In response to the original post I believe (well GRRM has basically said this with different wording) GRRM has a tendency to create hard rules to his magic, but then sees this in part as a flaw in his writing. It's magic, not science, it's not supposed to be entirely consistent or require complete explanation.

I think the manifestation of this is going to be magical rules that appear complete and consistent, but then have exceptions. For example bloodlines will matter when it comes to riding dragons, almost always, but then someone like Nettles may not be of any dragon blood and have achieved dragon riding by simply feeding and allowing the dragon to become familiar with her.

A Night King doesn't exist yet but Stannis will become the approximation of one. As the Blood Emperor foreshadows Euron but there's no expectation Euron will ever be called a Blood Emperor, the Night King foreshadows Stannis but Stannis won't likely ever be given or take that name/title. Nothing I've read from GRRM precludes him creating a contemporary Night King parallel.

I've never read a good idea for what Benjen is all about. His interaction was almost wholly with Jon (unless I misremember, it's been a long while) so I expect he has to relate to Jon's arc rather than Bran's. I should probably reread his part in the texts to see if I can get a feel for what's doing. Maybe he's next to take up the mantle of Aemon/Mormont as the authority figure telling Jon to abandon his family/love to carry out his duty. Something along the lines of this theme would be my best guess.

I'm quite sure I know where it's leading but the wording is rather grey and I'm probably missing something in how it's going to be presented.

An important question (riddle) will eventually emerge, the question being what does one need to make a rideable dragon to save the world? The answer is a dragon second lifed by a human (probably one of particular blood - Valyrian/Targaryen) thus made rideable, these are what Valyrian sphinxes represent and so they're not the question but the answer.

To make some assumptions I would guess Aemon got it from a text and the text will resurface in the series and put the exact way the sentence is worded into a context that makes more sense.

Alleras/Sarella might be a GRRM hint at something related to this thematically, but she's obviously not the literal answer, Aemon is talking about waking dragons and saving the world in the war for the dawn, a girl pretending to be a boy in Oldtown doesn't relate literally.

On 11/3/2023 at 2:21 PM, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

I don't think so.  Daenerys has already fulfilled the requirements and became Azor Ahai after the funeral of Khal Drogo. 

If Jon is anything he is the return of the Night's King. 

Rhaego was the innocent life who was the partial payment for and the price for the dragons to return. 

Nothing has been fulfilled, fulfilling prophecies at the start of a story defeats their purpose as a literary device.

When the series is finished you will still be able to argue who was AA, Jon or Dany (or Rhaego or Jon and Dany's bastard), such will be the shared and scattered manner in which the prophecies will play out.

The topic has been debated since at least 2013.

It really should be put to bed by now though, on reread it's abundantly clear what's happened behind the scenes.

Stannis talks to Mance, draws his own conclusion that Mance has value, Mel tells him Mance has value, Val has standing with the wildlings and pleads with him for Mance's life and Jon tells him Mance has value.

For these reasons he does really want to spare MAnce, BUT, he has two problems

1) He wants his show burning to eliminate Mance and place himself as the Wildling's only hope so that they'll come to his side, and;

2) He can't consciously free Mance because the law.

Mel's ruby trick satisfies Stannis on the first point, allowing to have his shown burning, and Jon's sagely advice that the law ends at the Wall satisfies him on the second. The trickery is distasteful but it is what it is.

Stannis saves Mance and gives him to Jon as Jon asked. He saves Mance as Val asked and not coincidentally she does as Stannis wants, as she said she would.

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"I have something hard to tell you." He almost said ask, but caught himself at the last instant.

"Is it Mance? Val begged the king to spare him. She said she'd let some kneeler marry her and never slit his throat if only Mance could live. That Lord o'Bones, he's to be spared. Craster always swore he'd kill him if he ever showed his face about the keep. Mance never did half the things he done."

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Val stood on the platform as still as if she had been carved of salt. She will not weep nor look away..

This is a useful quote in explaining Stannis knew. "Rattleshirt" to Jon.

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"You flatter yourself," Jon said.

"Aye, but I'd flatten you."

"Stannis burned the wrong man."

"No." The wildling grinned at him through a mouth of brown and broken teeth. "He burned the man he had to burn, for all the world to see. We all do what we have to do, Snow. Even kings."

When we understand Stannis knew (made the actual decision) the quote takes on a different meaning.

I wonder if GRRM meant for it to be ambiguous, I don't think he did. I think it's just the nature of having to keep the whole identity secret for as long as required and that if you "knew" you'd never read it not knowing and so wouldn't necessarily catch that your reveal didn't make it immediately apparent that it was Stannis behind the decision and that people would assume Mel acted without him.

An interesting question is if Val knows. Val never cried when "Mance" was burned. She believes she knows Mel knows about the baby swap, although why she believes this is not entirely clear, suggesting some communication between the two. And when Jon mentions Stannis by name in requesting Val not berate Seylse Val turns from playful to uncharacteristically serious and agrees to Jon's request, they then carry on in silence.

He can galvanise the Vale (right now) behind Harry while influencing Harry to do his bidding, he can't galvanise the Vale behind Robert while also controlling Robert. To the Vale lords Robert is a puppet with LF at the strings and they wouldn't just go along with any plans whereas Harry would be a man grown making his own decisions and LF would be serving and advising at Harry's pleasure, the Vale lords will all do what Harry wants and mostly with enthusiasm.

It's a good thought, not that she'll specifically take three dragons and melt the rock but that Dany will generally destroy Casterly Rock. Symbolism of Targaryen's overcoming rock/stone and relating particularly to Dany (one of her three lies to slay is the stone beast, her blood melts stone in her waking the dragon dream, and there's more) is persistent throughout the series not just Harrenhal. Strong possibility.

On 9/25/2023 at 4:53 PM, Groo said:

I don't think you can say anything like that about Arya's story.

The concepts of mercy and justice are core components of leadership and Arya's storyline.

In the near term Jon will bloodily win and lead the north as KITN until his surrender to the Iron Throne, which will then probably see him named Lord of the North, then he will die towards the end of the series. Sansa may become Lady of the North on Jon's death and to end the series but if she does it will be a banishment of sorts forced on her and designed by others, the purpose of which will be to physically keep her from the powerful in King's Landing so that she may not manipulate and rule Westeros through them.