SeanF

8 minutes ago, Zorral said:

The same in the ye olde golden age of Athenian democracy!

 

Often, a "tyrant" in the Greek world was someone who did terrible things like freeing slaves, or proclaiming debt relief, and based his political power on lower class supporters, at the expense of decent, landowning, slave-owning folks.

17 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Speaker Johnson announced last night that Ukraine and Israel aid were going to come to a vote in the House on Friday.  Details of exactly what will be included are not clear, but it is expected to be close to the $60 billion that has been discussed.  It may include some less favorable things like loans for a portion of the aid (but not even close to the full amount, maybe like $10 billion in long term loans and $50 billion in aid).  This is Donald Trump's stupid idea and so we should assume Johnson will probably include it. 

Now, there are still a lot of potential hurdles.  The biggest is probably Johnson straight up changing his mind before Friday, but this is the first time that we've had an actual date on a vote.  In all likelihood if it comes up, it will pass, because there are plenty of Republicans and virtually all Democrats that will vote for this.  It will then almost assuredly need to go to the Senate which will slow things down again, but probably it goes through there without too much issue, since McConnell and Schumer are both pro-Ukraine. 

So...we'll see but there's reason for cautious optimism. 

MTG will rant and rave.

12 hours ago, Zorral said:

For sure, and not only weak, but misinformed as to these soldiers not cognizant in Latin.  That was at least as much the mission of the Roman armies in disputed and conquered lands -- it latinized not only the mercenaries or auxiliaries, but the populations as a whole, and not only terms of language.  And even by the days of the dominance of the Eastern Empire, christianizing them.  Which then leads to those who argue that "Rome" never "fell," since ultimately so many of those Goths who moved into what was the western empire had been so successfully Romanized in administration and taxes, the army, the language and religion. As you are aware, Theodoric and Ravenna are sort of these historians' and arguments' crucible.

I do think the fall of the Western Empire was bad news, for the next 4-500 years.  Trade slowed to a trickle, warfare was endemic, populations declined, livestock became smaller, literacy became less widespread (even if serious historians now dismiss the notion of the Dark Ages).

But, by 1200, the standard of living in England, France, Italy, the Low Countries was well above where it had been 1,000 years previously, and societies were somewhat freer (being a villein beats being a chattel slave).  The sheer inventive cruelty that the Roman elite devised for the lower classes who stepped out of line makes their medieval counterparts seem liberal by comparison.

Gibbon’s claim that the best time to be alive was the 2nd century could be only be made by a man who envisaged himself as a senator, rather than a peasant, a slave, a woman, or a religious dissident. To paraphrase Brett Devereaux, your chance of being a senator would be 1 in 19,200.  Your chance of being the latter would be 9 in 10.

On 4/13/2024 at 6:38 AM, HexMachina said:

When Joe writes clichés it seems to be done in an intentional way, and there's always that Abercrombie twist that makes it his own.

BSC is probably still my favourite book of his and at its core its a run of the mill revenge story but so well done

Eta: Obligatory "please listen to the audio books because Steven Pacey is incredible"

I agree that it’s my favourite, too.  Cosca, Friendly, and Morveee, the ethical poisoner, are just hilarious.

12 minutes ago, .H. said:

This series of blog posts has been posted on the board numerous times, but I guess some might not have come across it before, but it covers the trope that the Freman seem to operate under pretty well.

Brett Devereaux is recommended by so many people, and of so many different political persuasions.

The only other person who can explain operations, battles, tactics as well as he does is Bernard Cornwell.

Dune (like ASOIAF to some extent), relies on the trope that a harsh environment creates almost unbeatable warriors (Sardaukar, Fremen), who can rout ten times their number of soft, “civilised” peoples.

Whereas in reality no army is that good.  And civilised peoples are actually pretty good at inflicting lethal violence.

In reality, Paul’s military dominance comes down (as in real life), to logistics.  He has a monopoly of spice, the Universe’s equivalent of petrol.

Zorral, this is in response to the piece you linked to on the Ukraine thread.  Since, I'm dealing with Rome, I'll post here.

Thanks.  That's interesting, but I disagree with a lot.

I think the section on Rome is weak.  Rome's most "native" soldiers - the Praetorian Guards - were repeatedly disloyal, and venial, and increasingly despised as parade ground soldiers by the legions.  Conversely, many German tribesmen took their oaths of loyalty to the Emperor  extremely seriously.

I don't actually think there was very much wrong with the Western Roman Army in the Fifth Century.  Stilicho, Aetius, Majorian, Aegidius were all able to pull off comfortable victories over "barbarians".  And, or course, Eastern Rome survived intact. What destroyed the Empire was endemic civil war.  The first three were murdered, for the crime of being competent. Tribes like the Goths, who were not badly disposed towards the empire, were repeatedly fucked over by imperial authorities, and made into enemies.

There's nothing at all wrong with training up local forces, provided they have something they feel is worth fighting for.  Kurdish and Shia militias in Iraq had every reason to fight Islamic State.  The ARVN and Afghan army simply had no commitment to governments that lacked any real support among the wider population.

The Taliban are abysmal, but their cruelty is directed at women, and religious minorities, and most powerful Afghans are untroubled by that. The Viet Cong were nationalists, more than they were communists, to most of the South Vietnamese population - unlike say, the insurgents in Malaya.  Nationalism is way more popular than Communism.

10 minutes ago, Zorral said:

This article illustrates, again, how the Ukraine war, on the Ukraine side, is quite different from how contemporary powers have conducted their colonial wars, i.e. Ukraine unlike Russia is not engaged in a grab for territory and resources.

What it means when the mercenaries appear
Elliot Ackerman’s new novel is “2054,” written with retired Adm. James Stavridis. This piece is adapted from an essay in the spring 2024 issue of Liberties, a journal of culture and politics.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/04/15/liberties-mercenaries-wagner-group-warfighting/

 

Sean -- I sent the full text of the piece to you via private message, thinking lots of bits in it would be of interest to you -- not necessarily informing you -- unlikely! -- but still of interest.  It goes rather well, too, in places with Brett D's latest entries.

 

I thought it an interesting piece, but I disagree with a lot.  But, rather than derail the Ukraine thread with my comments on Rome, I thought I'd post my response to the History in Books Section, as well as PM you.

On 12/10/2023 at 9:12 PM, KingStoneheart said:

I do believe that a large portion of what "generally" happened in the show will play out in the books in some way or another (in a significantly better and more well thought out way) and one of those things that I think will happen is some sort of "ceasefire" between Dany and Cersei after a while (so that Dany and her dragons can fight some zombies). I know many people in the fandom also feel that Cersei will kind of be an afterthought to the Long Night / War against the dead (many compare her to Saruman in LotR during the Scouring of the Shire) and so I'm wondering how people think this will play out in the Books?

Of course, we are A LONG way away from this moment happening, but still what sort of things do you think will lead up to Daenerys willingly sending her army North whilst she still knows Cersei is in the game - as that just seems like an insane move. I know in the show, they had a Wight Hunt but that is also a ridiculous plot that will not make the book, so what will be the persuading factor do we think?

Personally, I think something along the lines of the North plead for help, Dany rejects that to fight her war, eventually the Others break through the Wall and Dany's like "oh... they were right" and flies North. But by this point, King's Landing may have already been burned to the ground and Cersei could either be missing (en route back to Casterly Rock somehow) or already back there and hiding inside the impregnable rock (both impregnable by siege and wildfire). Because of this and her being trapped there, it makes it a lot easier to head North and leave her behind as an afterthought.

I think it's a reasonable assumption that Aegon will take Kings Landing with the Dornish and Golden Company.  Likely he weds Arianne, and they enjoy a honeymoon period.

But, I expect that Jon Connington and the Sands will be out for revenge.  That means that Tommen, Myrcella, and Margaery will be put to death, creating enemies in the West.

Euron will also be raiding the West, and who knows if he takes Kings Landing.

The North will be controlled by Stannis or Jon, and who knows who the Vale will side with?

By the time Dany arrives, I expect the Seen Kingdoms to be in a state of anarchy.

1 hour ago, StarkTullies said:

That's an interesting idea, but I see the Prologues as alternating between Others/wights and not-Others/Wights.  I don't think Pate's prologue chapter in AFFC really has anything to do with fire unless you're really seeking to make everything in the story about either ice or fire.

This is what I'm thinking and hoping.  I hope Sybell Spicer Westerling is the POV character in the Prologue, and even though George Martin said he isn't committed to the POV character always dying in the Prologues, I would not be sad to see her go.  She sacrificed her son for a power-grab, and I don't believe for a moment that she didn't have a good idea that Raynald was walking into a massacre.  I generally don't like the claim of "If you didn't see them die, they aren't dead", but I hope Raynald is alive and has joined the Brotherhood, and Sybell sees her son that she betrayed watching as Lady Stoneheart hangs her.  Sybell Spicer Westerling is definitely one of the most despicable minor characters in the story.

Her readiness to sacrifice her own children for gain is disgusting.

14 hours ago, polishgenius said:

I'm sorry but the seeming current trend in US political discourse to equate support for Ukraine and support for Israel as morally similar things or even vaguely similar issues

is

fucking

insane

Unfortunately, it’s probably the only way of getting aid to Ukraine through Congress.

Tansy the prostitute was once intended to be Hoster Tully’s illegitimate daughter.

Had the five year gap been implemented, Pretty Meris would have been Brienne, after years of brutalisation.

Val is related to the Others.

On 4/11/2024 at 6:03 PM, sifth said:

Yea, but why aren’t any of these locations just creating their own armies? Trusting a sellsword company seems a lot more risky than using your own army of loyal soldiers.

A standing army is hugely expensive, and most of the time, it’s idle.  Only the mightiest empires would consider that the expense justified it - because mighty empires need to maintain garrisons, use soldiers to extract taxes from subject populations, and to repress insurgencies.  Imperial armies (eg Rome, China, the East India Company), are just as much gendarmeries, as forces intended to fight external enemies.

That simply does not apply in Westeros.  Nobody views the Kings as a foreign imperial power.  And the free cities aren’t empires either, although Volantis is the closest to one, and their tiger soldiers likely are a standing army.

What Westeros does have is a standing navy, and that makes sense as piracy is a constant menace.

6 hours ago, Werthead said:

Germany has sent an additional Patriot battery to Ukraine, apparently already on its way. One additional Patriot battery has been secured in principle and the details are now being worked out.

Ukraine has apparently launched a series of attacks on Berdychi, driving back Russian forces holding several strongpoints. Not a major victory but a constant way of keeping Russian forces off-balance and not allow them to dig in.

A Russian Storm Z unit has published an angry complaint that recent Russian personnel and equipment losses are unsustainable and poisonous to morale. However, Russia has had some localised successes based on meatgrinder attacks so these are being intensified. They have attributed these successes to Ukrainian firepower deficiencies, so when those new shells and weapons arrive, Russian losses could escalate horrendously. Recent casualties have been back in the 800-900 per day range even with Ukrainian weaknesses in weapons supply.

A Chinese political analyst working at Beijing University has been allowed to post an article claiming that Russia will lose the war in a major way and that conflict has strained Russo-Sino relations. Interesting why that was permitted.

 

I think that Russia has already lost, at a strategic level.  The costs, in terms of loss of men, equipment, control of the Black Sea, foreign exchange reserves, loss of prestige, far outweigh the gain of some devastated provinces.  At the same time, NATO  has gained two new members, and has been revitalised. 

18 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Bloody trumpanista retirees.  They’re too old to worry about Abortion as an issue.

 

After Florida voted to enfranchise felons, Trump’s lead rose in 2020.  No doubt felons saw him as a kindred spirit.

6 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

^ Yes indeed. I made the point earlier that the institution of slavery is evil, but within that individual circumstances vary greatly, and there is considerable overlap between better-off slaves/serfs and put-upon free peasants.

 

For GRRM to recognise the complexity of society is to make him a good writer, not a pro-slaver!

The well-born Meereenese, who offer to sell themselves to the Qartheen trader, or Xaro’s friend, no doubt expect it to be like a form of indentured service, with people who may in some cases be their relatives. Essentially their service is payment for free passage out of the city, and a payment to their families, who were pillaged by the slaves.

24 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

I'm not pro-slavery, BUT ....

 

I did mention earlier that some slaves in real life were well-treated, typically tutors and scribes in Ancient Greece. In ASOIAF there are examples of servants and peasants who had a decent life. The best example is maybe Old Nan. A serving girl/woman/crone all her life, she probably lived in greater safety and comfort than 97% of citizens in Westeros. Other serving staff in Winterfell and probably castles like Riverrun would also have had a more comfortable and secure life than the vast majority of freeholding peasants.

There were even cases of people selling themselves into slavery, to wealthy Roman citizens.  Intelligent slaves had good prospects, as scribes, doctors, accountants, business managers.  And if freed, they would be Roman citizens.  In the Imperial period, Imperial freedmen could rise very high.

I’m sure these slaves/freedmen have counterparts in Essos.  And, probably slave soldiers and overseers have privileges.  But, the vast majority (as in Rome), are fieldhands, bed slaves, miners, millworkers, menial servants, dung collectors etc. who are worked to death.  So to paraphrase Devereaux, your chance of being a privileged slave is perhaps 1 in 10, your chance of being worked to death perhaps 8 in 10.

I’m sure that people like the Starks, Tullys, Tyrells, Martells, are good to their servants.  People like the Lannisters, Freys, and Boltons, much less so.

I’ve always thought Tyrion musing that the slavers aren’t that different to Westerosi lords says a lot about the Lannisters.  Tywin’s organising Tysha’s rape would be called Tuesday, in Meereen.  But, it would disgust someone like Ned or Edmure.

On 4/10/2024 at 6:38 PM, Jace, Extat said:

Well, Israelis are citizens because they constitute a state right? It's the state that offers, guarantees, and enforces an individual's rights.

Is there an organization or entity that looks to guarantee, with enforcement, Palestinian rights or civil liberties? 

The Palestinian Authority has no popular support, or enforcement power. And Hamas is not exactly a Civil Liberties kind of group.

The notion that one does not possess any rights unless one is represented by a sovereign government is ludicrous.

Israel can be a Jewish-majority State, in which case, the West Bank Palestinians must be given freedom. Or it can incorporate Judaea/Samaria, in which case, the new Palestinian citizens will form a vast voting bloc.

1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

I’m halfway through Before they were Hanged and it’s full of scenes I could easily describe as enormous cliches, stuff I’ve heard a million times before.

But none of it bothers me because it’s so well written, so fun to consume, full of characters I enjoy spending time with.

So  assume if he writes a story about an elf invasion in London, it will be a lot better than it sounds. 

Sure, you’re never getting originality with Joe Abercrombie.

What you get is loads of black humour, hilarious dialogue, and much fun.

14 hours ago, Werthead said:

Something that might save Ukraine's arse whilst the US flails around is that Russia seems to be having real equipment shortages at key areas on the front. Apparently Russian forces have been ordered to retake Robotyne in armoured assaults despite their armour being obliterated in frontal attacks, so the last few waves of attacks have taken place in barely-armoured Ural-4320 transport truck charges across open ground, which have...not gone well (protip: if your upgunned T-72 can't achieve an objective, it's highly improbable a truck with some dudes on it will be able to achieve the same goal).

In the last four days, OSINT sources seem to agree that Russia has lost 6 Russian SAM systems, 32 artillery systems, 40 tanks, 51 IFVs, 14 APCs, 52 trucks, 10 UTVs, 43 cars, 9 EW systems, 2 comms systems, 2 engineering vehicles and 1 boat. 262 vehicles in total destroyed. This might be a record for any four-day period of the war, but people are checking that.

Russian officials are also apparently confused on their own mobilisation plans. The annual draft in May may be delayed until June or July, and the number of troops to be raised for combat operations is apparently being fiercely debated behind the scenes, due to growing disgruntlement about losses and casualties (it also sounds like the prisons have turned up the last recruits they're going to, so the next groups will need to be workers and students).

The EU Council has apparently provisionally agreed to pay for the extra Patriot systems that Ukraine has asked for, although the details are still being ironed out. 

Czech diplomacy has apparently resulted in the acquisition of yet more artillery ammunition from Serbia, India and Pakistan, despite their relative friendliness to Russia.

Perhaps factoring into that, the Indian government is apparently extremely unhappy with Russian "security companies" offering high pay for Indians to travel to Russia, where they are promptly pressganged and sent to the front line in Ukraine, with none of the expected money appearing. Several Indians have apparently fled the front and made their way to the Indian embassies in Minsk and Moscow where they were repatriated home.

Estonia is apparently considering joining an informal coalition of countries who are prepared to send engineers, technical trainers and non-combat personnel directly to Ukraine. This coalition would likely consist of France, the Baltics, Poland, the Czech Republic and UK. Apparently this plan severely irritates Russia because it introduces a "grey zone" where the consequences of killing large numbers of NATO troops in a non-NATO country would be highly ambiguous, so Russia would probably avoid doing it.

There seems to be growing agreement that the threatened offensive towards Kharkiv is a bluff: Russia does not have enough forces on the Kursk-Belgorod axis to defend against Russian partisan attacks, let alone cross the heavily-defended border and advance the considerable distance towards Kharkiv. Russia's most likely next move is a major offensive action to secure Donetsk Oblast's borders and resecure Luhansk (in the face of some Ukrainian attacks in that sector recently), but it looks like even this will stretch their manpower. It's also worth noting that the 2021 Bakhmut offensive was supposed to deliver them both oblasts and so far it's taken two years to scratch forwards to take Avdiivka.

Future Russian success may depend on if they can continue to leverage glide bomb superiority; if Ukraine can deploy more Patriots and F-16s, that advantage may be eroded.

Has Ukraine yet received the artillery shells that the Czechs sourced?

2 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Steven Attewell (Race for the Iron Throne) has died from cancer. 

That’s very bad news.

Race for the Iron Throne, and Laboratory of Politics, were excellent.  His analysis of the Slavers Bay arc was especially good.

15 hours ago, Aldarion said:

I don't see your scenario as likely. It might happen if Daenerys decides to stay in, or come back to, the Slaver's Bay. As it is however, the anti-slavery movement is nearly certain to fail in the short term, not too long after Daenerys leaves. Force of habit is simply too strong. It will certainly be significantly diminished, but realistically, complete overthrow is unlikely. Such things take time.

Socialism and communism require extreme levels of bureocratic development, which we don't see in Essos - and they don't work anyway. Transition of Essos from slavery to feudalism is the only possible route, but since Daenerys failed (so far) at introducing feudalism (or anything, really) to replace slavery, resurgence of slavery in the short term is nearly certain.

What I would expect to see, in the wake of the slavers’ defeat, and Volantene revolt, is an end to the vast disparity in numbers between free and slave.

Meereen, Volantis, and their hinterlands would have millions of freedmen, ranging from very poor to very rich.  Some of the very rich freedmen might well wish to acquire slaves as status symbols, but they can’t re-enslave the majority, and they can’t import the vast numbers needed to restore the proportion of slaves to 75-80% of the whole.

So, you might see up to 5% of the population, able to afford at least one slave, although some would refuse on ethical grounds, and slaves being 10-15% of the population, but the vast majority of people being free.  Most likely, the freed fieldhands would be mainly sharecroppers, or smallholders.
 

 I'm guessing the big landowners will be Dothraki nobility, Shavepates, some survivors of the Old Blood/Great Masters, freedmen who have made good, the Red Temples, and the government.

A free company isn't a company in the modern sense, with shareholders who own it.

It's more a case of a captain, or captain-general if the company is big enough, who's acquired a reputation as a commander.  He might be a nobleman, like Federico de Moltefeltro, or a professional soldier who rose from the ranks, like Sir John Hawkwood.

Essentially, he signs a contract with a lord, or free city, to fight for a fixed term, and to bring a fixed number of cavalry and infantry.  His employer makes him a down payment, and then various stage payments, during the course of the contract.  The captain then enters into contracts with his lieutenants, to supply soldiers in turn.  They then negotiate contracts at the individual level with the serjeants, and ordinary soldiers. 

Think of it as being similar to a major building contract, today.  The main contractor sub-contracts.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Christianity said war is wrong and Christians kept fighting each other. It also said that slavery was bad, yet slavery only began to be outlawed quite late in the Middle Ages:

• France 1315
• Sweden 1335
• Ragusa 1416
• Castille 1477
• Lithuania 1588
• Russia 1679

So yeah, I don't see religion making that much of a difference.

It was outlawed in England, in the 12th century.

For sure, some ex-slaves will want to start slaving.  But, you’ll still have millions of freed people who have no intention of being re-enslaved.  The people who were creating the Unsullied are all dead, and many of the Dothraki will have left the supply chain.