Lord Varys

HotD addresses that issue rather succinctly - when Rhaenyra is declared Heir Apparent in 105 AC, House Targaryen is down to Viserys, his daughter, and childless and quarrelsome uncle Daemon. If they were to die without (more) issue, the throne would go to the Velaryon cadet branch. Rhaenyra could easily die before marriage or in childbirth - which would create instability and potentially chaos. The prospect of a 'King Daemon' - either as a pretender or as Viserys I's sole remaining heir - is very troublesome to crucial members of the Small Council, after all. For all those reasons King Viserys I needs more spares to ensure the survival of the dynasty. That is why he remarries. And if the family had gotten along then there wouldn't have been a succession war. It may have been easier to challenge Rhaenyra's succession because she was a woman, but to do it you need the motivation to do so. Had their children had been of different sex, things may have gone very differently, as Aegon the Elder could have easily married Rhaenyra's eldest daughter had Jace been female. Or Rhaenyra could have taken Aegon himself as a second husband had they liked each other more.

We don't know who was told the information between the episodes. As Jacaerys Velaryon is Rhaenyra's heir it stands to reason that she might have told him already - or will tell him upon his return from his mission in season 2. The point of that, though, is that the Dance as a war will not only result in the death of most of the dragons but also the loss of this prophetic knowledge - or at least the belief in it - as Rhaenyra might never get around to tell little Aegon III. And even if she did tell him or make the attempt ... in light of all his trauma and loss during the war he might not actually believe shit like 'Well, all your half-brothers and your father and uncles (and eventually his mother herself) died because of some belief in an obscure prophecy'. That stuff is not likely going to sit all that well with him ... and we already know from season 1 that Daemon doesn't really believe in that stuff, either, which is why his brother never told him. He might certainly not be alone in this. And it is not that it is this is a really big secret. Alicent also knows that her husband believed in prophecy a lot. He could have told her about the prophecy, too, or she might have put some of the pieces together ... but that is not just the thing she (or many other people) might actually a lot about.

I'd imagine that we do see the hatching of Stormcloud live on Dragonstone. If Aegon goes to the Vale with Rhaena the one big reason they might be sending him there would be that he has a dragon, now, too. Which - in the book, at least - is the big reason why Joffrey and Tyraxes go there. Lady Jeyne is asking for dragonrider protection. Morning would be way too early at that point. And they still need a really good explanation why Rhaena is not trying to mount Vermithor or Silverwing or even Seasmoke in the wake of season 1. They know they want more dragonriders already. I think there is still a good chance that the show includes her as a rider of the Grey Ghost (as there is no point to that dragon in the book if we talk plot), with Morning only being her second dragon hatching close to the end of the show. If Rhaena misses the beginning of the Sowing because she goes to the Vale, and if she were to return to Dragonstone before the Gullet and the fall of KL she could easily enough team up with Nettles to search out the wild dragons as they have no castle dragons left to try to mount. They would then need to come up with a separate story for the Grey Ghost to die, of course, but that would be easily done (easiest way could be the Storming of the Dragonpit with Rhaena then accompanying Rhaenyra and Aegon the Younger only to decide to act as Rhaenyra's envoy in the Vale again rather than going with them to Dragonstone). If those revelation really allow us to form an outline, then I think unlike earlier revelations implied - Aegon the Younger going with Rhaena to the Vale rather than it being only her and Joffrey - we might still see him and Viserys with Stormcloud on the ship. After all, if there is no Gullet battle in season 2, we would expect it not to happen in episode 1 or 2. And since the importance of the Vale is apparently played up it would also make sense for Rhaenyra to have Jeyne sent some men to Dragonstone and Driftmark in preparation for the (eventually planned) attack on KL. Meaning Aegon could easily enough return to Dragonstone eventually, only to be captured by the Triarchy then. Hell, story-wise they might even only decide to send him and Viserys to Pentos after they really get an impression that they might lose the war. If I had to guess, I'd imagine that season 3 would only have the Gullet at a later point and the Fall of KL as, perhaps, for episode 7 or 8, as they would heavily build up the Reach plot in that season, and focus a lot on the fighting in the Riverlands, followed by the introduction of the Ironborn plot. Nettles could join the fray only after Jace is lost in the Gullet. It would also make sense to have the Riverlands campaigns to play out to completion - get to the Fishfeed or even the Butcher's Ball - before Rhaenyra takes the Iron Throne. Then they could go with a heavy focus on the Reach campaigns afterwards, really play up the Ironborn/Westerlands stuff, add some material for the Stormlands, before getting to Tumbleton and the riots. This could also help to flesh out the characters some more - the Aemond/Criston Cole thing, how Aegon II is doing as a crippled, drug-addicted 'king', more stuff for Helaena to do, etc. Insofar as Alicent/Rhaenyra considering a peace treaty - if they do that, I really would like them to properly address the whole incest thing. Namely, the obvious way for them to make a peace would be for Rhaenyra and Aegon to set aside their current spouses to marry each other, with Alicent offering to marry Daemon, Helaena marrying Jace, and Baela and Rhaena ending up with Aemond and Daeron. They would rule jointly, and proper heirs to the throne could then only be trueborn children of Rhaenyra and Aegon. The idea to split up the kingdoms would be too soon, I think, at that point, as, what we know so far, at least, would indicate that not a lot of houses have declared their allegiance yet, nor should the time have come for certain regions of the Seven Kingdoms seeing themselves as 'Black land' or 'Green land'. But that could certainly be the case at a later point during the war. But I think it could also make great sense to see how Alicent and Rhaenyra get close to an arrangement or actually do reach a compromise, only for other people (guys) in their respective factions fucking things up again. Corlys - and especially Baela - could be, for a time, warmongering hawks in the show, in the wake of Rhaenys' death. And at the Green court Aegon being incapacitated after Rook's Rest could give Alicent more authority than she had back during Aegon's short reign. But Criston Cole and Aemond (and Larys Strong) could easily enough use the time of her absence as a way to escalate things some more. Those three buddies of Aegon's - Estermont, Reyne, and the Waters guy - really seem to indicate factionalism among the Greens, indicating that Aegon might quickly be surrounded by men who try to turn the figurehead king into the real ruler, hoping that would gain them advancement.

Yeah, I know. I just wanted to point out what's wrong with that idea. Also, I think a more ruthless Viserys wouldn't have killed any of his nephews necessarily, but his lousy excuse for a son. Viserys must have known long before his death that if there was a danger for the dynasty in the family itself, it was his own eldest son and heir. If anyone might fuck up things for them all, cause another succession war or even a general uprising against House Targaryen it would be Aegon the Unworthy.

Yeah, but I assume if that plot is continued Bran might have multiple people who are like Thistle would have been had Varamyr had success - they would be permanently his skin, so to speak, without anything of the real former personality being 'alive'. Thinking a bit more - they might end up intending to sacrifice more than just Theon on the island. Arnolf Karstark, his second son Arthor, and some of the grandsons were captured alive by Stannis' men. So perhaps they are the first to water the tree with blood, allowing Bloodraven/Bran to work some magic even before it is Theon's turn. While it would be a pretty good ending for him on the island, what we do know about George writing more Theon chapters seems to indicate he won't die too soon. But, of course, it is also quite possible that outside factors simply stop the sacrifice before they get around to it. An earlier attack, unrest in the camp, some news we don't know yet, Stannis deciding he wants to milk Theon for some more information before the upcoming battle, etc. The probability that 'some magical stuff at the island' magically causes people to not want to kill Theon are very low indeed. Only Theon could possibly recognize Brandon Stark ... and nobody would possibly believe him. The clansmen would deem something like that obscene. As a divine oracle they might spare him as long as he talks some sense as an oracle, but that's it. I'm also somewhat inclined to believe that Bran/Bloodraven will only intervene during the battle, doing something that could indicate that the gods are on Stannis' side - by way of ravens and crows and perhaps even other animals attacking the Freys/Boltons. If Theon does something heroic or at least meaningful during the battle that could earn him another reprieve. As long as he is useful for Stannis in general. The guy knows no mercy, so even that wouldn't earn him a pardon, of course.

Never thought about Theon become Bran's first flesh puppet. That could actually be an interesting plot point. In his present state he would even welcome the destruction of his own self if that's what it takes to earn Bran's forgiveness. The only way they might spare Theon's physical life is if the guy were to kind of lose it completely and suddenly act as if he were some kind of divine oracle, speaking with the voice of the gods. Why else would anyone not want to kill him?

Most of that sounds like really weird theorizing, especially since Viserys II's road to the throne is right there, for you or George to take, but they fail to do so: 1. Simply murder Aegon III before he fathers his first child (very easy indeed as Aegon apparently trusted Viserys completely). If that doesn't work for some strange reason: 2. Remarry to Daena Targaryen Viserys is a widower as early as 145 AC, and perhaps technically eligible to remarry from the day Larra left as his was technically a foreign marriage and could thus be easily set aside (it was even part of Alyn's agreement with the Rogares that the marriage would not be set aside for any reason, indicating that this would have been done easily). By marrying Aegon's eldest daughter it should have been very easy to usurp the throne in 157 AC after his brother's death, with no reason to bother with two demented nephews for 14 more years. Things like Viserys not insisting on a regency government for the minor Young Dragon or him not actually running the show during the reigns of his nephew strongly indicates the guy was capable as an administrator but not actually all that keen to be in charge.

I do, obviously, like any other reader of those books.

No, I don't think he did it in the story we got. I meant he would have done it if Fell and/or Waters had lasted until the end of the Regency. But there is still potential for him to sack one of them as a pretext to restore Ser Robert Darklyn ... or not, as we are not actually clear if the KG is up to their Seven when Aegon III comes of age. But the remnants of Aegon II's reign are gone now, as are other KG with Greenish leanings or such beholden to Peake. If I remember correctly, Fell and Waters (plus, perhaps, that Wormwood fellow who may or may not have been a KG) were the only Greens on the KG at the beginning of the Regency, the vacant spots being filled with Blacks. Then we have some deaths which cause Peake to put his cronies in ... and then they are killed in turn, with the new guys brought in likely being loyal to the new king without any old Green affiliations. I also do expect that Sandoq the Shadow is going to wear a white cloak sooner rather than later. After what he did during the Secret Siege it seems obvious that he will the most crucial instrument of the new government to instill terror in their enemies (and friends). Even if that would not happen for some reason, I do expect the guy to not go back to Lys with Larra, but rather to stay back in KL, then as a sworn shield to Viserys or (some of) his children.

There is no reason to assume Theon's life would or should be saved by way of him confessing he murdered two other boys to pass them for the Stark sons. Stannis wouldn't spare him for this, at least. Theon also doesn't deserve redemption or mercy - and his only usefulness to the plot is that of a POV for crucial scenes. With Asha there, too, he might quickly outlive his usefulness - if not, then they might spare him as a potential pretender to make trouble for Euron ... but even that's quite silly considering that some crippled, traumatized eunuch is most definitely not going to impress so much as a single Ironborn. If he lives up until the battle he could regain some standing with some people if he were to play in the putting down of Ramsay - say, by killing him personally, saving Asha or even Stannis in the process of that. That isn't that unlikely as it sounds, as Theon 1 established that, so far, Stannis keeps Theon very close to his side to ensure that the Northmen don't just butcher him on sight, so he might actually be in the position to do something during a battle if he is still kept close to Stannis. The point is, though, that chances are pretty low that Bran/Bloodraven will be able to work some 'miracles' before there is a proper blood sacrifice giving them sufficient 'magical fuel' or 'juice' to do something impressive. Even if they did, though, unless we would have the face in the tree talk in Bran's recognizable voice and him kind of 'proving' that his is Brandon Stark of Winterfell (extremely unlikely to happen, even more so as I'd think that Bran/Bloodraven themselves would have no reason to present themselves as mortal men to their potential worshippers), who on earth would interpret whatever 'miracle' happened there as a sign from the gods to spare the scum that is Theon Greyjoy? Pretty much no one - especially not the Northmen who would likely be the ones doing the interpretation of any 'signs and portents' sent them by the old gods. There are signs in ADwD that Bran might be willing to forgive Theon what he did ... but this doesn't mean or entail that he will spare his life. Could just mean that he forgives him on a personal level but takes his blood to nourish himself and the trees, for the good of mankind (of course).

For any reason. I'd assume that trade relations would be a good reason. And FaB revealed that quite a few Hightowers were seafarers themselves, so them coming home with a foreign bride or arranging matches abroad feels quite natural. In fact, if there is any Westerosi nobility intermarrying with Valyrian nobility (not necessarily dragonlords but nobility) before the Doom we would also expect the Hightowers to have been some such, as it is quite noteworthy that the Citadel owns some Valyrian glass candles. Those are, presumably, not artifacts the Valyrians handed out like trinkets, especially not to some barbarians at the edge of the known world. I think if the events of the Regency era up to and after the Secret Siege hadn't taken care of any of Aegon II's poisoned legacies, Aegon III would have cleansed his KG the way Jaehaerys I cleansed his when he took the throne. And not just because Marston was the guy who helped to murder his mother ... but also because the entire order sucked hard during the Regency. They could not only not prevent a number of assassinations and assassination attempts, they may have been complicit in several of them (most noteworthy the death of Queen Jaehaera). Somebody would have to take the blame for all that shit. I'm also reasonably confident that Aegon III will restore Ser Robert Darklyn to the KG eventually, unless George wants to invent eight Darklyns to serve on the KG. Ser Robin Massey is slain during the Regency era, but Ser Robert might be still around in late 136 AC.

There is a lot to that, actually, and I think the best way to make sense of that is that quite a few Lords of Oldtown took brides from the Free Cities - especially Lys and Volantis - over the years. Would make sense if Otto's father were one of those. Definitely, I think, the textual evidence in the book (Jaehaerys mistaking Alicent for Saera and other daughters) points towards Alicent not being dark-haired. Doesn't mean she would have had Valyrian looks, specifically, but she clearly didn't leave any traits on any of her four children that we know of. They all seemed to have inherited the Valyrian looks.

It seems more likely that Otto's elder brother, Ormund's father, married a Redwyne, as his son Lyonel is close kin to them. If Alicent's mother was a Redwyne, then them effectively sitting out the Dance would be a really cowardly thing to do. As a younger son my best guess for Otto's wife would be from a house sworn to Oldtown, and most likely one from a house which stayed true to the Hightowers during the Dance, i.e. a Cuy or Bulwer, since the Beesburys, Costaynes and Mullendores declared for Rhaenyra. If the MUSH is any indication, then Aliandra won't continue the main line of House Martell. That is pretty likely, as the second Laena Velaryon is old enough to be grandmother to both. That could work as well, although Rhaena having six daughters means she could actually be only their granddaughter. Rhaena and Garmund are likely going to marry somewhat later due to Garmund's age and the pregnancies could be stretch out to 10-15 years rather than happening in close succession. That would be an interesting idea, but it might be more interesting to have Rhaegel's wife Alys as another Targaryen cousin, through one of Rhaena's/Baela's girls. Still, the Arryns might be rewarded with a Targaryen bride in the wake of their loyalty to Daeron II on the Redgrass Field. That is not unlikely at all.

Problem mostly, though, is that we cannot really assume that the average rural petty lord or landed knight would really need his feudal levies to train much. They wouldn't be called in for outlaw hunts and minor skirmishes, anyway, and proper war are effectively never a thing as there is no outside enemy. Even a succession war only affects you if you your lands are either in the center of Westeros and/or you and your liege lord cares to take a side in the succession war. Look at the Dance. The Tyrells didn't give a damn, so no fighting close to Highgarden. The Stormlords reluctantly took a side and no fighting in the Stormlands. The Vale did take a side, but still no fighting in the Vale, etc. And if you check the books there is clearly a big difference between the rural and the castle smallfolk. The latter do get some training at arms, but the likes of Mycah or Pyp, Grenn, and the other commoner NW recruits training with Jon had literally no chance of training at arms before they got to the Wall. If we had a broad or at least common tradition/practice of training at arms in country we would have heard about that. There would be commoners joining the NW who would be professional archers, say, or trained pikemen, etc. But we don't see any of that anywhere. That would be true for some regions like those close to the Wall (although they seem to be a bit wimpy as they are all fleeing the Gifts rather than trying to defend their lands) and also, historically, in the places that were threatened by the Ironborn. And, of course, the Northmen would also be harder in general, having to deal with a lot of deaths in winter and, historically, having to deal with more infighting in the North. We hear, for instance, that the clansmen are very quarrelsome, etc. But that doesn't mean that most of the smallfolk fighters there are overall very professional. The fighting they are doing would rarely, if ever, involve large campaigns and pitched battles, but local raids and skirmishes. Some rare fights among some northern houses, rare issues with the Skagosi, not so rare issues with the wildlings (although they would be badly armed, badly armored enemies lacking discipline). At least since the Conquest.

Sure, but if it is 6,000+ against about 30,000 or even 40,000 then, well, the Golden Company would have to be in a really, really good position if they are doing a pitched battle. And I don't see that so far. Although, granted, the reader has yet to get a proper description of Storm's End and its surroundings, so perhaps there are places for that. George still can make them up on the fly without any contradiction. I think that ego was always there, at least if we can believe Olenna. Mace is a spoiled boy. Oh, I didn't necessarily mean running away - although that would be a chance, too, if they were to lose their castles as quickly as they gained them. I was thinking about them jumping ship. If you reread ADwD you might notice that Strickland himself - the captain-general - is the one who insist the most that they need Dany and the dragons for legitimacy/strength. That could easily enough foreshadow him jumping ship and joining the real dragon with the real dragons once she arrives. Ah, there you are confusing the Tarlys and the Florents. Randyll seems to be the kind of loyal vassal who totally glues himself to his liege lord - like we have with the guys who chain themselves to Stannis now or who died with/for Aegon II in the end. Randyll's wife and Sam's and Dickon's mother is actually a Florent, Melessa, the daughter of Lord Alester, niece of Ser Axell, and first cousin to Queen Selyse. Yet Randyll is the one who slaughtered an unknown number of Florent men at Bitterbridge after the return of Loras Tyrell. If the man contemplated betrayal it should have been around that time, one imagines, not when we talk about some foreign pretender who might be false, anyway. If the guy is butchering the levies of his father-in-law for the sake of his liege lord's favorite son then it is quite clear where his allegiance lies. Randyll gained a lot during his current service to Mace. Not immediately after the Blackwater, but thereafter. At Maidenpool he married his heir to the heiress of Lord Mooton, and he joined the Small Council after the return to court in ADwD. The guy is on his way up, and jumping ship couldn't benefit him even remotely more than just crushing Aegon. Doesn't mean he cannot jump ship eventually. But only when he and Mace find themselves on the losing side, I'd think. That is not really jumping ship but being grateful and loyal to Cersei. Kevan, Jaime, and Cersei all have no clue that the Tyrells murdered Joff. They view them as rivals for power within their own coalition, they don't view them as enemies. The smart thing about the advice was indeed that Cersei picking one of Mace's own bannermen would make it hard for him to feel slighted and could lead to the Lannisters winning a loyal friend. But that works only in a setting where they are not already enemies. Mathis Rowan is another case entirely. This guy seems to be not only a popular and influential man throughout the Reach and beyond (he is the only Reach lord to join the Small Council after the Blackwater in addition to Mace and Paxter), but also one of the genuine Targaryen loyalists in the Reach. Tyrion thinks that Paxter and Mace don't really give shit about the crimes the rebels committed these days (or they are much better at hiding their true feelings), but Mathis actually does. And that will definitely play a role. But since George has confirmed that Mathis Rowan is right now commanding the token siege force Mace left behind at Storm's End when he returned to KL in ADwD, he will either die, be captured and/or (eventually) join Aegon in the wake of the taking of Storm's End. In that capacity he cannot directly influence what happens in the Tyrell army. But him declaring his allegiance for Aegon, vouching for him being the rightful king, etc. could have a considerable impact. A good chunk of Mace's army could include men loyal to Goldengrave. Oh, I meant that the magic thing kind of got old as a plot device. That is why you can see it won't work all the time. We also have that with Daenerys and Jon ADwD. One gets killed, the other nearly avoids a poisoning effectively loses all she has built in Meereen. It is not up, up, up even for the characters with plot armor. With Stannis right now chances are pretty good for him to turn the tide this time as the overall feeling of the chapters has him at the end of the rope. There would be no surprise or twist at all if he were to lose after the Pink Letter already claimed he lost. And since Theon 1 isn't a chapter we would, normally, read before TWoW it is quite clear that this changed tone of Stannis being confident and learning in time about the Karstark betrayal is something that is actually intended as a surprise for the next book. Only a bit. In and of itself it can become a problem, but only because the Tyrells ended up joining Joffrey thanks to Littlefinger's successful negotiation and the lucky accident that they could team up with Tywin in time. In the end, though, it is actually Littlefinger's ploy with Garlan wearing Renly's armor that decides things. That is what breaks the spirit of the men who originally fought for Renly and who now made up the bulk of Stannis' army. Oh, come on. When Ned tells Robert that they would throw them back into the sea it is quite clear that the reader should realize that this might not be so easy after all. A hothead and impatient, but not completely stupid. Still, of course, the death of Aenys Frey is another convenient thing for Stannis. And again - Hosteen was the guy who kind of cut Wyman's throat. If I were putting myself into his shoes it would not surprise me if he was going on a little Manderly hunt before bothering with freezing Stannis. And even if not - the guy wouldn't view the Manderlys as his allies in a fight against Stannis, so chances that they will be actually surprised by a Manderly attack are pretty low. At best I could see the Manderlys staying aside or attacking the remaining Freys after the bulk of their cavalry rode onto the lake and broke through the ice. But at that time the Freys would have already lost the battle. With Hosteen commanding the Freys chances are also pretty good that Stannis doesn't have to reveal the Karstark double betrayal yet. I'd imagine that he positions his troops in such a manner that Hosteen would assume they are already done and easy targets, inviting them to charge ahead and into their deaths. That part of the battle can technically be won without (m)any losses on Stannis' part. But the real danger would be the Bolton army, anyway.

But the thing this is a static, peaceful society. Nobody there needs a lot of military men, especially not local lords. The Iron Throne doesn't face outside threats, especially not any who are even able to challenge it. I guess now we are saying that Tywin is representative of the average lord in this world, right? The latter is a problem more because those men are not necessarily loyal or willing to die for Joffrey. Again, all you go back to is the Battle of the Green Fork thing which is problematic both because it is from AGoT where a lot of world-building details are yet vague, but also because, obviously, Roose Bolton - who did the attacking there in the wake of the night march - only sent experienced and capable men to do the fighting there. He had effectively no cavalry facing the Westermen, so to have even a remote chance the contingents of his army doing the attacking would have to have been pretty professional. That said - the guy obviously lost or even blatantly sacrificed thousands of men in that battle. What we should imagine happened there was that Roose had the best men of all the non-Dreadfort men in his army do the attacking, hoping they would either win or die. And, of course, Tywin Lannister's reservoir of well-trained men should be among the highest in the Realm. The Westerlands are rich as hell, meaning the lords and landed knights there can afford to clothe and train and feed scores and hundreds of men-at-arms. Landless Kevan Lannister claims he can feed thousands of knights in need be, so some of the richer Lords of the West should be able to do something similar. I guess now we also imagine that it is totally fine in a medieval setting to eat five-year-old bread which lived through a hot-as-hell summer...? Winter length is completely unpredictable there - it could last a year or six years, and you also have no clue how long spring, summer, or autumn will last. You are very much fucked in this world. I'm sure I never gave that number. That is when things break down. If you insert your definition of camp followers - which we don't see in the books, actually - then we also have no clue if the army numbers we get in the books actually refer only to 'proper soldiers' or if they also include your camp followers. And then all things go down the toilet. The thing is - we do see the Northmen raising new troops now and it mostly sucks, despite the fact that the campaigns are now in the North itself and we also know that the North's strength is (supposedly) not completely spent. Yet the men with Roose and Stannis now weren't enough to bring the harvest in back in ACoK, ASoS, and early ADwD. Also, of course, quotes as such given about Steelshanks Walton and Bonifer Hasty suggest that proper soldiers in the world actually are peasants or would like to be peasants after a campaign is over. Actually, no, as the North's army would be mostly feudal levies rather than professional castle men-at-arms since, obviously, there are not many big castles in the North. Again, look at the Deepwood Motte as an example. The Glovers are the crucial house in their region and they live in a wooden joke of a castle. Since there is but one city and one town in the North, most Northmen would live in small villages and, in outlying regions, even in solitary farms and the like. Think of the lonely old man in the Gift Ygritte murders or what we are told about the Glover men living in the Wolfswood. Those men are not likely to live in proper villages. Yeah, but certain places in the Reach are not much better, either, so that is not just a regional problem. Although the North would have more such problems. I guess then you should rewrite the Targaryen reign. Because we got a pretty detailed history of the first half of that, and there is no endemic small-scale warfare there. But you know what? Even if it was - lords would resolve such issues with their own standing castle militia. Like Lady Rohanne tries to do. Like Ser Rodrik Cassel does in ACoK. You do not call your bannermen or feudal levies for that. That would mean war, and if you do that to fight your neighbor you are a bloody rebel. Again, there are no big wars that we know of. And even the big wars didn't involve necessary all the houses and regions. Dorne and the Tyrells stayed out of the Dance, and there was no fighting in the Vale (nor did the Vale men who came in the end do any fighting). Most of the Blackfyre Rebellions didn't involve a lot of fighting, either. We can safely say that the reigns of Daeron I, Baelor the Blessed, Aegon IV, Daeron II, Aerys I, Maekar, Jaehaerys II, and Aerys II won't involve any bigger campaigns and wars than the ones we know already. Aegon III should have to do some larger campaigns, and then there are the rebellions against Aegon V. But the latter is a very special case as the men antagonized many of his lords with his own reform ideas. His reign is not representative of the reign of any other Targaryen king.

I guess that was mostly something to illustrate the fact that it is autumn approaching winter. In KL it is snowing already, so chances are pretty good, actually, that it might be snowing at Storm's End and in the Kingswood, too. Either already or soon enough, meaning the fighting at or close to Storm's End might be fought at freezing temperatures and in the snow. Jon Connington is a Stormlord, so he would know the terrain. The Golden Company do not. But Mace Tyrell and many of his men twice besieged Storm's End for months - first during the Rebellion, then in AFfC. They know the surrounding territory, too, including the situation alongside the Kingsroad. He still might make mistakes, of course, but not because he doesn't know what's coming. Chances that the Golden Company could dig in or put themselves in a favorable position somewhere outside Storm's End is also not that likely, as I doubt that the place right outside a castle serving as the capital of a former kingdom is particularly well-suited for battle. We should expect farms and fields and small villages outside the place. Certainly, but Tarly was serving under Mace at Ashford. He was the commanding general and Tarly's liege lord. The victory was his as every victory of some lesser officer is the victory of the general. People seem to ridicule Mace for the impression that his claim there is that Mace himself was doing the commanding on the battlefield ... but that is actually only a technicality. It is not impossible that Mace might leave Randyll behind to keep the peace in KL ... but I don't think that's all that likely. Not after the fall of Storm's End. And not after the double murder further destabilized the situation while putting all legal power in Mace's hands. That is what Illyrio Mopatis said ... not what Harry Strickland said. The support of the Golden Company officers for Prince Aegon is lukewarm at best, as Jon Connington realizes. Aegon's speech helps a lot, but they are not buying his story. Some of them might even know that Aegon his fake - which could easily be the case if Myles Toyne who plotted with Varys and Illyrio knew or suspected the truth and let something slip. They are not like any other free company, to be sure. But they are not the people you would rely on as your core support to conquer and hold the Iron Throne. For that they need full Dornish support, at least. That sounds like too much open betrayal. Men standing aside, yes, lords declaring for Aegon without them actually being part of Mace's army - yes, too. But an open stab in the back is unusual for the Reach men. The Golden Company's friends in the Reach might be the likes of Lord Titus Peake and, especially, Orton Merryweather and wife since Orton himself and/or his late father and grandfather could actually have served with the Golden Company while they were in exile. Mathis Rowan standing beside Aegon and Connington could give a lot of Reach levies pause - especially men sworn to or with close ties to Goldengrave - but there is little chance Randyll Tarly would betray Mace. At his side the guy wields almost royal power now, nothing that Aegon can offer him could beat that. This friends thing is more something that should play out after Mace doesn't win or outright loses a battle. Then the Reach will fully rediscover their Targaryen loyalty, not before. Logistically, the Golden Company should have no chance to reach out to any men in Mace's army. Of course, Varys could do that back in KL. Ah, no? The Penrose incident happens afterwards. The foreshadowing of Stannis' defeat is that his whole magic thing is too successful. He has success, success, success ... that can't continue forever. Stannis is defeated by the Lannister-Tyrell alliance ... and the fact that Tywin and Mace could team up in time and attack together. There is little foreshadowing for that, actually. The wildfire-and-chain plan slows him down, but couldn't have defeated him. There is a lot of such foreshadowing in AGoT. Sure enough, when the invasion doesn't happen that plot kind of disappeared. But it might be back in the game, and now they can only be more devastating, invading a war-torn, starving country. And if they will arrive, they will arrive when Aegon and Euron have made things much worse than they are right now. I'm sure Wyman had some chance to brief the guy who is going to lead his army ... because he himself wouldn't have done it even before his injury. But the point remains that the guy is a dead man walking (or right now rather a dead man lying down, I imagine). But you have to keep track of the numbers. Wyman brought about 300 men to Winterfell, but the Freys are there with 2,000. I'm not saying that a Manderly attack on the Frey rear during the battle at the lake wouldn't have a profound effect ... but this is something even a hothead like Hosteen Frey should expect after his attack on Wyman. If there are no clashes between the Freys and Manderlys up to that point then we would expect the Freys to really guard their rear against such a surprise attack.

That war partially coincided with the Hundred Years War and continued shortly thereafter. Like the Hundred Years' War led to a militarization of England, the civil war escalated that even more. Nothing like that has ever happened in the Westeros history we know in great detail (the Targaryen reign). That is a silly argument as such campaigns are unlawful and would see the lord playing this game suffer the fate of the Tarbecks and Reynes (or be fed to a dragon back in the earlier days). The Targaryens by and large enforced the King's Peace created by the Conqueror, so local warfare effectively died out. Rohanne Webber plays a pretty dangerous game ... and her hope to get away with this seem to rest mostly on the fact that Eustace Osgrey is a former traitor. Bloodraven and Aerys I won't care much if she puts him down. But this kind of thing isn't the rule. How has that any bearing on a fantasy setting where there is usually peace and quiet aside from the very rare succession wars? Why should the nobility be forced or even encouraged to train men-at-arms they don't need? I mean, I'm with you that soldier peasants from border regions would be well-trained and experienced fighters. Their lives would depend on that. But where can we reasonably expect such people to be? On the Shield Islands, perhaps, in the Vale/Riverlands regions close to the Mountains of the Moon, the clansmen and Umbers of the North close to the Wall, and in the Dornish Marches (even more so before the union). But that's it. And those are not exactly the most populous regions of Westeros. Rhaegar's army was the second Targaryen army marching against the rebels, but we don't know that Connington's men were all or even mostly Crownlands men. They could have come from the Reach, from Connington's own lands, from the Targaryen loyalist Riverlands (from the lands controlled by Harrenhal, Maidenpool, and Darry). And we also do know that Reach men and Dornishmen fought with Rhaegar at the Trident. Those men you point towards all the time and claim are pretty much all the soldiers, yes, those would be such men. Because in this world nobody properly trains at arms outside castles. We see and hear this again and again. It is what sets castle people apart from village people. And that extends not only to nobility as even the likes of Rolly Duckfield have the opportunity to train at arms at a castle. Villagers can't do that in the same way. Of course you can also overdo the mobilization of peasants. But the thing is - Osgrey doesn't conscript his peasants. He forces them to do their duties as his feudal levies. They sit and live on his lands, so it is their duty to fight for him when he calls on them. They are his vassals. Lady Rohanne's men are not her levies as such, they are her paid men-at-arms and sworn swords. The men who man and guard her castle full time. She didn't call on the help of any landed knights or other men sworn to Coldmoat. Such men she would call upon when her liege lord calls his bannermen. What we see is that men march well and show off their weapons. Whenever we actually see the common soldiers it is clear that the individuals are mostly badly trained and conscripted men who suck at soldiering and who learned the trade by doing it, not by way of fighting in the many non-existent earlier campaigns prior to the War of the Five Kings. Soldiering in a medieval setting would be costly and extensive. There is no chance that peasants who need to make a huge surplus harvest every year to have sufficient provisions for freak winters do have the luxury to train at arms at the weekends. And if they don't do that, they are not professional soldiers. It happens twice during the Dance and also earlier during the Conquest where harvest is slowing down Torrhen Stark's march. Camp followers are exclusively female in this world. It is a term for camp whore as I told you repeatedly. You can check that yourself by actually checking the context in which the word is used in the novels you are talking about. The fact that even crucial lordly seats - which would the largest and most important structures in any lordship - failed to harvest the crops right outside their fucking gates (!) is all you need to know how 'professional' the military men of such lords were. And in that context it is irrelevant if the fighting men left the fields and farms or other men also 'ran off to war'. No sane society should and would permit either. Who cares about that? The fantasy setting we are talking about makes it clear that the problem is much more basic than taxes. If Lord Glover goes to war, Lady Glover and her people don't have enough men left to harvest the crops right outside their own castle. And as we know from Alys Karkstark this is a widespread problem in the North. Despite the fact that Robb Stark didn't actual take the strength of the entire North. For the hundredth time - such people would then either be soldier peasants or live in a society where there is constant or at least regular warfare. Where is that the case in Westeros after the Conquest? Comparing the Targaryen Realm to any real world society insofar as warfare is concerned makes no sense. You could do that if you wanted to describe the situation of the old Osgrey heroes Ser Eustace talks about in TSS. They were guarding the northwestern flank of the Reach against incursions from the Westerlands. There was constant or always constant warfare there in that region ... but assuming things didn't change in that region is ludicrous. You don't maintain border garrisons and such if there is no longer a fucking border. Back when there was constant warfare we can assume that a very martial culture existed there. Everybody was always kept ready for war. But not in our era.

The theory that successive incest creates somehow 'worse' or 'lesser' Targaryens than some cousin or outside marriage is ludicrous. First, those people practiced sibling incest as the ideal (and other close kin marriage if that was not possible) for centuries and millennia. They are all inbred, as are the descendants of Targaryen bastards or descendants of people who married into other families (Velaryons, Baratheons, etc.) The only difference there is that some branches of the family don't marry back into the main line and thus don't got more inbred. But adding the 1,234th sibling incest union since the founding of Valyria doesn't make the children of such union worse than the ones who only happen to have 1,233 incestuous ancestors. Second, we see that the likes of Aegon the Unworthy, Daeron the Drunk, Aerion Brightflame, Aerys I, Rhaegel, Vaella the Simple, etc. suffer from issues that we would expect more inbred Targaryens to suffer from if the author wanted to send the message that sibling incest union among you most recent ancestors somehow ruins you. Vice versa, there are rather cool Targaryen children from incestuous unions like Jaehaerys I's elder sons, Aegon III and Viserys II, and both Daeron the Good and Daemon Blackfyre. Another interesting take is that Olenna Tyrell even point blank says that the Baratheons suck because of their Targaryen blood. That blood is rather diluted, as it is in the Valyrian beauty Daenaera Velaryon. The point of the story clearly is that looks and degree of inbreeding aren't that a relevant factor for inheriting Targaryen traits - but simply the fact that you are a descendant from the dragon family tree.

Ah, but that is the south in the Rainwood/on Cape Wrath, not in the north of Storm's End. Aegon seems to be attacked by the Tyrell army at Storm's End - which means the battle will take place outside the castle or, if preparations are made, perhaps somewhere on the road inside the Kingswood. That would be a good place for a trap. The Golden Company will only win if they are the ones doing the attacking. What we could see, I think, is something akin to the Battle of the Kingsroad at the end of the Dance, or, perhaps, even something loosely based on the German attack on Varus' legions. We have no clue how broad and movable the Kingsroad in the Kingswood is, so there might be a good chance for a trap there. No, the chances are equal for Mace commanding the army, Randyll commanding the army, or both of them jointly commanding the army. Aegon is yet dismissed by Mace and Randyll both in the Epilogue ... but that is before the fall of Storm's End. Once the castle falls and news arrive that the boy has proclaimed himself there and is urging all Targaryen loyalists to do fealty to their rightful king they will take him very seriously. Also, the double murder makes Mace Tyrell king in all but name. He might want to exploit and enjoy that. Yes, he is also hungry for glory in battle, that is something to consider ... but we have no clue how events will unfold with the trials of the queens. In the Epilogue he made it clear he would only bestir himself once his daughter is acquitted ... so if this is going to take time, say, because Margaery wants her reputation restored completely and insists on a Faith trial even after Kevan's removal would allow them to have King Tommen declare Margaery innocent, then Mace might decide to send Randyll against Aegon. Mace and Randyll both marching against Aegon and were, for some reason, to take the bulk of the Reach forces with them would also give Cersei freer reign to try to do some mischief, especially in the field of fleeing the city. And while Mace likes to brag ... the guy is actually a shrewd politician. He is not necessarily stupid enough to face the Golden Company without the help of a man like Tarly - who already seems to be a very close advisor to Mace in the Epilogue. Strickland is right now very pleasantly surprised by their miraculous successes ... but that is an indication how quickly they might jump ship if things start to go awry. And if Aegon is still down to 5,000-6,000 Golden Company men at Storm's End ... how likely is it that those guys are willing to really bleed and die against 30,000-40,000 Reach men? They would face an enemy which outnumbers them multiple times. An enemy who is also quite rich and could buy them off. It is more likely we are going to see some crumbling in the Reach camp, especially if Mathis Rowan were to survive the fall of Storm's End and ended up in camp Aegon. My point simply is that without us being able to predict where the story is going we would think that chances are actually very high that Aegon will fail completely. Just as would have expected Renly to triumph in ACoK as he was the strongest pretender or Stannis to win on the Blackwater. The story is driving events here, not realistic portrayal of military stuff. Which is why guys like the Dothraki will play the role of the terrifying Hun or Mongol hordes ... and not that of some lousy and badly conceived morons. Assuming they will play a big role in the story at all. Wyman Manderly's throat has just been (kind of) cut by a Frey blade, and the man is too fat to sit a horse, anyway. He won't go anywhere. The only thing he is doing is going to die at Winterfell. Perhaps in some struggle that might also lead to the end of Roose and/or Ramsay. If Roose is gone then Ramsay won't last two seconds, as Barbrey Dustin's men might immediately bring her his head. If not, then they would at least turn on him, abandon him, or butcher the guardians of this or that gate to let Stannis' forces in. In light of the Davos situation chances are pretty bad that the Manderlys will effectively turn on anyone. They might stay out of the Frey attack or attack them from the rear after Stannis' trap has been sprung. But Wyman would have instructed them to tread very carefully with Stannis as the guy is not likely to trust them until they actually kind of prove that Davos is still alive. Something they could, perhaps, do by way of handing him a letter written in Davos' hand. The Others are very far away at this point. Anything else is wishful thinking.

That is a completely wrong comparison as the Hundred Years' War was a number of ever more escalating campaigns, fought in part during an era of civil war in both countries, which concentrated on an ever more war-torn region of modern France. Westeros' big wars last only 1-2 years and usually don't affect a large portion of the land in a similar way. We have discussed this in the past. Training is also part of raising new troops in general, e.g. Prince Rhaegar training his army before marching to the Trident. Connington didn't lose thousands of men at Stoney Sept, nor is there even an indication that his army mainly consisted of Crownland contingents. Also, of course, it is a joke to assume that in this patchwork feudal setting every lord and landed knight trains his or her men in the same manner as their neighbor. There is no central management of the system, nor are feudal levies directly beholden to the liege lord or their liege lord. If their liege doesn't care much about training and military matters, they won't be well-trained or well-prepared. It is quite clear that there is a pretty large contingent of castle men. Just look at the map and then assume there are, say, some hundred men-at-arms for the very rich castles, and scores for the lesser houses. If we get to the levies of petty lords and landed knights then it would approach the Osgrey situation. A good number to use as a template would be, say, the size of the garrison of Dragonstone at the beginning of the Dance. Again, there are effectively no large scale wars in Westeros and there is no constant small scale fighting outside a few special places. The average petty lord or landed knight doesn't need a strong militia. And when their liege calls the banners for one of the one time in a century succession wars then they will call in men they neither know nor would ever want to use under normal circumstances. And if you check, say, Roose's take on things, then the smart lord wouldn't necessary send his best men to war, anyway. His feudal obligations extend only to call in his levies and sent some men, they don't demand he leave his castle, his farms and fields and people undefended. You repeat this as if anyone has said the infantrymen are all just peasants with sticks. We only say that most of them are, and that basically means they are in no way professional or experienced soldiers unless they are, for some miraculous reason, veterans of earlier wars. And all that means that most Westerosi armies are not very professional. We might see this play out when Westerosi infantry has to fight directly against the Golden Company infantry, the Unsullied, and, especially, the Dothraki. The Westerosi armies work because they fight alongside and under the command of more experienced and professional men-at-arms and knights. The crucial part about Walton is that he is a trusted lieutenant in Roose's army - the man he entrusts both Jaime and 'Arya' with - while actually being a peasant. If that is the backbone of Roose's troops then most of his men won't be professional soldiers in the sense that they trained at castles and do live off warfare as a trade. He clearly does the job of a trusted household knight/sworn sword there ... while not actually being such a person. But of course Walton, the person, is a well-trained soldier. One would imagine that he is man sworn directly to the Dreadfort, living at a farm a couple of miles up and down the Weeping Water, say. But we should also expect that a city would have enough good sellswords and veterans who could fill up the ranks of a professional militia. Not to mention the time, money, and resources to train and equip them compared to men who actually are peasants. Not to mention that small campaigns like outlaw hunts, etc. which would comprise the bulk of 'the battles' the Westerosi fight in peace times would be mostly organized from towns, larger castles, and, especially, cities. So experienced fighters and soldiers would be found there rather than in the countryside where little to nothing should happen. The hunt of the Kingswood Brotherhood, for instance, was organized from KL. And in that context it is actually quite fun that the big super soldier and general Robert Baratheon is nowhere to be found in that campaign. Jaime seems to have had more battle experience prior to the Rebellion than Robert himself. Did the Lord of Storm's End think it was great that some outlaws were roaming the forest that starts literally outside the walls of his castle? Addendum: The fact that the Starks often enough cannot bring many men to war during harvest effectively confirms that many feudal levies not only are peasants but actually do work on the fields. If they had farmhands and servants doing the harvest work and the subsequent crop counting, etc. ... then the soldiering guys would be free to go at any time. But they clearly are not. This is even better confirmed by the smallfolk of the Glovers and Karstarks being unable to bring in the harvest because they all went to war with Robb. If sufficient men had been left behind, then the crops wouldn't have died unharvested outside the very walls (!) of Deepwood Motte.

I know that this is historically more complex, of course, but we talk the fantasy setting of Martinworld. Jaime notices that archers suck as they can attack from a distance and breach shields and armor alike. That is no small thing. Culturally, it is clear that the chivalry is as presented in the late(r) Middle Ages is the frozen and eternal culture of Westeros since (sometime) after the Andal Conquest, i.e. for thousands of years. Archery as practiced has never changed or affected that, there is no competing or alternative new elite of, say, a landed gentry of archers, we don't see the Crown or great houses create and maintain strong and powerful militias of archers to challenge or curtail the power of (other) lords, etc. That is even more remarkable in light of the 'magical bows' we do have in this setting. There are normal longbows, presumably similar to the English longbows, then there are the Goldenheart bows of the Summer Islanders which are better than the former, and then there are finally the most powerful bows of all, the dragonbone bows of the Dothraki ... which might come in handy in the future (not necessarily in so small a number). And more generally speaking - if we look at the ratio between infantry and cavalry in Westerosi armies then it is even more odd that there are not more professional archers and crossbowmen. Even more so if you were to - wrongly - assume that most of the men we see on battlefields are actually well-trained and equipped professional soldiers. In the frozen/timeless martial culture of Westeros where the longbow might be a thing for millennia it is very odd indeed that archery is not a very refined and very common practice among more people than it is. It is a craft that is relatively easy to learn and doesn't need all that money or resources to be maintained compared to the knightly arts ... which is why it should have been more widespread among the commoners than it clearly is.

None of that are an issue narratively, as KL can be stormed and burned easily enough, and there is no reason to assume a Targaryen pretender has to do more than that to force a war-torn country into submission in winter. Dany wants the throne, she doesn't want to conquer some backwater castles in the countryside. If anyone wants to topple her, they have to march against her. There is no reason to assume that she would send out the Dothraki to, say, capture Casterly Rock or the Eyrie. Also, of course, provisions and sieges will play no role at all as there is no time for stuff like that. A well-provisioned castle, ready to face a winter lasting for two or three or four years, would be able to sit out not only the time covered by TWoW but also ADoS and how many other novels might be needed to cover the remainder of the series. At best we can expect the remainder of the story to cover 1-2 more years, not more. And that is quite generous in light of how little time passed in AFfC and ADwD. Also, of course, the Westerosi people have no experience at all fighting the Dothraki.

Sure, but those would then be (semi-)professional archers. We know such exist, that isn't an issue. But they, too, would be a thing in larger villages/proper towns, where people actually have some kind of culture, not the kind of hovels full of shit where Eustace Osgrey's villagers rot. The place there is rather significant - the Reach is the most populous and most fertile region of Westeros. Yet on the lands next to the lordship where the finest horses in the Reach are bred the peasants pretty much live like animals. But we should also not overdo the archery thing. George definitely thinks men who train at archery don't do that for a living. It would be part of village or town culture - archery contests on every other harvest feast, etc. These people mostly work 24/7 on their farms and fields as peasants do. Even things like tourneys rarely draw actually peasants from the region as spectators. For instance, the innkeep's lad in THK runs away to watch the tourney, but we don't hear anything about the Ashford peasantry collectively forgetting to work so they can watch how their lord's maiden daughter honor is defended by the champions. I'd also suspect that most good archers are actually part of the household guards/standing men-at-arms of the lords in their castles. We see this, I think, to a point in the first Jaime chapter of ASoS. Obviously, archery is not as professionally done in Westeros as being popular or thorough enough to do away with or at least seriously challenge armored knights. Which would imply that it doesn't really exist much as a culture independent of the lordly castle culture. We also have to note that we actually never see yeomen (they are mentioned once in the speech by the traitor septon in TMK), nor do we see people who could reasonably be constructed coming from such a class. What we do have is a kind of petty nobility that are scarcely above the peasant level. But such people do have their own colors and heraldry, so they cannot be the class/group of people from which the likes of the Freys and Manderlys and Lannisters take the men-at-arms who wear they colors and bear their arms. And it is quite clear, I think, that the richest houses of Westeros are, in the end, insanely rich who can indeed afford to and do clothe and arm and feed the men who fight for them. We can deduce this from the allowance/wealth a guy like Leo Tyrell has. The guy wastes a lot of money in the inns and brothels of Oldtown. And while he is a first cousin of Mace Tyrell, he is still an acolyte of the Citadel, training to be a maester, so technically Mace should not drown him in money. If he does, it means the family really has a lot of money.

The Iron Throne is in KL, and to win it Aegon has to take it. And technically he is opposed by 30,000-40,000 Reach men which should win the day easily enough, even if he had full Dornish support. Aegon might get declarations of support and lords bending their knee after he takes Storm's End and then KL ... but in winter and in a war-torn Westeros that won't translate into him gaining troops left and right. I'd say magic and, perhaps, smarter naval battle tactics. But sure enough - I'd actually also expect him to win a mundane battle against the Redwynes simply for narrative reasons. This is a story, and Euron is a major antagonist while Paxter is a featured extra with almost no lines. They are, as Harry Strickland shows. They are going to sell Aegon out if he were to lose. And they will break camp and retreat again if the campaign is not going to look profitable. Where is it raining heavily? The 30,000-40,000 Tyrell men are not all heavy cavalry. They should have just as many archers and professional men-at-arms as Aegon has, since the latter does not only not yet have the entire Golden Company at Griffin's Roost/Storm's End but is also outnumbered 5:1 or 6:1. There will be some rabble among the Reach men, to be sure, but their strength is drawn from the castles and towns of the Reach where we would expect to have the best trained feudal levies in all of Westeros. There is chance that a bumbling general is going to make things very hard for the Tyrell effort ... but you would have to be an utter moron to lose against 5,000-6,000 men with 30,000-40,000 men. Even if Mace or Randyll were to march with only half their strength they would still have 15,000-20,000 men - more than double than Aegon will have after he has taken Storm's End. Sure, but that is then a narrative, non-military reason: People favoring a (perhaps) false dragon to a (confirmed) false boy stag can make some sense. Aegon is likely to win because Tommen's government will collapse from the inside rather than be defeated on the field. The chance that Aegon could defeat the Tyrells on the field are actually pretty bad - and he could never hope to besiege or storm the city. If he wins, then because the Reach men refuse to fight him or outright defect to his side. All that is prepared by the infighting in Tommen's government. They brought how many men to Winterfell? 300, I think, 100 of them knights. They could wreak some havoc, to be sure, but unless theirs were a carefully coordinated betrayal in the middle of the battle - like Roose planned it for the Karstarks - they should have little effect. Even more so as the Freys should actually expect something like that. There is no chance in the world that even Hosteen Frey expects them to jointly butcher Stannis. Rather, the guy is looking forward to slaughter the Manderlys on the way to Stannis if he gets the chance. He does think Wyman did the same with his kin on the way to Barrowton, after all. Well, if he wins, it will likely be due to him using the terrain to his advantage and seeing the enemy commanders make grievous mistakes - which is also a great way to neutralize military advantages in numbers and equipment. And to be sure - the terrain advantages can only be exploited only once. He could still be crushed like a bug if Roose is smart enough to check things out before he unleashes his own forces. The Karstark double betrayal is going to have a huge effect, one imagines, but once it is revealed it is revealed. Ditto with the lake. If both will play out during the original Frey attack, even Ramsay could put Stannis down. And the clansmen want to die in the fighting. Their attacks will be suicidal, so Stannis could lose too many men in the first battle, long before he even gets close to Winterfell. Stannis best chance is not so much a military victory of his side, but a disintegration of the Bolton camp - like Aegon has to hope team Tommen is going to collapse. And chances are not so bad there as the only glue tying most of the Northmen at Winterfell to the Boltons was 'Arya Stark'. With her gone, Roose and Ramsay might be murdered by some turncloak Northmen in Winterfell itself.