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Lord Varys

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  1. That strikes me as you inventing things you would like to be true. The Dothraki do can take other people with them and feed them, they do that all the time when they capture slaves. Not to mention we see large groups of people cross deserts in this world without having any preparation for that at all. It will happen if the plot demands it. And things like that would happen offscreen anyway, like the Golden Company's journey to Westeros. But as I said already - with Volantis about to fall to slave revolution Dany might end up controlling thousands of ships in addition to the Volantene fleet that will defect to her. If there is a slave revolution in Volantis it will be done in Dany's name as the Widow of the Waterfront already indicated. And with three dragonriders claiming their dragons soon they will have the logistics to coordinate long journeys on land and sea. Dany and the others can fly from group to group in a row, checking on things on a weekly basis, say, allowing them to send help or prepare things for the arrival people, etc.
  2. Nobody is afraid of Cersei. People were never terrified of her ... and now the walk has turned her into a laughingstock. She could seize power again if she had an army in the city and they were beholden to her (and not, you know, mocking her because of her sagging tits, stretch marks, and the shit she was covered in when she reached the castle) ... but there is none there. It is also quite silly to repeat I was underestimating Cersei. She could be as cunning and subtle as Littlefinger and Varys ... without an army she has no way of seizing power now. Nor can she manipulate the people in charge to grant her a seat at the table as they all hate her. She has no friends left at her son's court. What we can, perhaps, assume is that Cersei is going to leave the capital with a boom. There could be assassinations or assassination attempts. But she can't seize power from her current position. That is a common misconception. Varys liked what Cersei did as Queen Regent - ruining Tommen's government and slowly destroying the Lannister-Tyrell alliance. But she doesn't want her or anyone decisive in control now that Aegon is out in the open with a target on his back. Now it is crucial that Tommen's people distrust, fight and kill each other, preventing them from mounting a decisive attack against Aegon. That is what Varys tells the dying Kevan. It is why he murdered Pycelle and Kevan the way he did. This whole thing won't lead to Cersei regaining power.
  3. How do the Dothraki then survive in the Dothraki Sea? You presuppose that all people are going to want to accompany Daenerys and/or that she wants to take all her people with her when she leaves. And as the Golden Company example shows - not all ships are necessarily full. It is, for instance, a presupposition that all the Volantene ships on their way to Meereen are full now. Also, of course, Slaver's Bay-Meereen could be done by way of the same ships going back and forth multiple times. In Volantis more ships could be captured once the slaves have taken over the city, meaning Dany's armada could triple or quadruple in size in just a day or so. I made it clear earlier that Dany's biggest advantage once she takes over the Dothraki is that people will know how many men she controls, how many armies she could throw against them if she wants to. That has an effect on the decisions of her (potential) enemies. People should behave like the many Hellenistic kings did when Rome was on the rise ... suck up to any Roman general they meet since you don't want to provoke the wrath of Rome. They don't have to march all their legions in your land to make you submit. It is enough to know that they could. It is therefore irrelevant if she goes to Westeros only with 10,000 or 100,000 or a million men ... because the lords she will meet there will know how powerful she is, how many men will come after her vanguard.
  4. Nah, this is a world where politics is depicted realistically. Cersei is not just a woman - who shouldn't wield any real power in this patriarchal society, anyway - but an aging woman who has been stripped naked and publicly humiliated. If magic wands were to decide politics in this world then Cersei could make her shame and humiliation go away. But she cannot do that in Westeros. More importantly, though, she doesn't even have the men she would need to seize power again. Reread AFfC. George had her deliberately disband the armies of the West, sending them back home. In KL there are right now 30,000-40,000 Reach men (half of the original Reach force that marched with Renly - the other half went back home with Garlan, Alerie, and Olenna). House Lannister only has a couple of hundred household guards ... and the City Watch is under the command of one Ser Humfrey Waters, a man whose name Cersei didn't even know when Qyburn mentioned him. In addition, half the city is effectively under the control of the Faith Militant - a faction that would also oppose Cersei's return to power. On the Small Council the last Lannister crony is Harys Swyft, and he is about to leave for Braavos. Pycelle is dead, Kevan is dead, and Qyburn has been dismissed from the council. Nobody would vote or even consider to restore the regency to Cersei. Cersei does have a mild potential to stage assassinations ... under the assumption that Qyburn and his instrument Ser Robert Strong remain loyal to her (which isn't a given as Qyburn just needs somebody to sponsor his experiments). But it is obvious what would happen if Cersei were to have Ser Robert murder Mace, Margaery and/or Randyll - the Reach men in the city would not just accept that nor fall in line behind her. They would storm the castle and kill her or they would simply abandon King Tommen and his mother. There is just no way for her to seize power again on her own. In the long(er) run there is a chance for her to get back into power if she (1) strikes alliances with other powerful factions (Euron), and/or (2) raises another army of Westermen. But to do either or both she does have to leave KL (and return to Casterly Rock). No need for Trystane to die. And the betrothal doesn't have to be broken, either. That is only for a scenario where Myrcella marries before her death. But it could also just be formally dissolved. I do think, though, that there is a chance that both Doran and Trystane might die soon as I think that Euron's reaction to Aegon's proclamation and his subsequent alliance with Arianne and Dorne will either be a daring raid on the Water Gardens or even a successful sack/burning of the shadow city and Sunspear. He does have the men and means for that, and Sunspear/the Water Gardens are defenseless against attacks from the sea. Euron is after the Iron Throne, so once he learns that there is another serious pretender he and his allies will become his next targets.
  5. The demon road is merely the direct way west. Once Dany has the Dothraki she would move them (and perhaps others) west overland through the Dothraki Sea and then by ways of Pentos and Myr to Westeros. Also and again - if merchant ships moored in the harbor of Volantis can move 10,000 Golden Company to Westeros without breaking a sweat then logistics are not really a problem. After all, there would have been lots of sailors on the ships carrying the Golden Company, too - and George didn't even bother depicting that.
  6. I do it just now, lol. The Hand is the highest royal official and the lieutenant of the king in his absence and incapacitation. In now treatise on statecraft and law would such a person be described as an 'agent'. It is like saying the British Prime Minister is an agent of the king. Not in a hereditary monarchy. Both Doran and Arianne act in the best interest of House Martell and Dorne. Arianne is the future of both, and Doran maintains and preserves his house's power as well as the integrity of the state of Dorne for his heir. Arianne is sent to Aegon because the Prince of Dorne feels his daughter, heir, and successor has to make such a crucial call. In part it would depend on when exactly Tommen were to die and how. If there is still a lot of plot going on between Tommen's death and Aegon's rise then it could make sense to have Myrcella as a queen in-between. Don't think that is an issue at all. Not only is Cersei not in charge of things, but Tommen is the crowned king. Whatever Myrcella does or is forced to do would not change who Cersei - or anyone running the show at Tommen's court - views as the king. Here you seem unintentionally confused. Doran knows that Cersei wanted to murder Trystane on the way to KL which is why he decided to only sent Myrcella back to KL. Trystane is safe and sound with Doran in Sunspear. The Golden Company and Aegon wouldn't care about Myrcella's betrothal to Trystane if they felt that her claim could strengthen Aegon's. And that call would then likely be made before a pact with Arianne is made ... and not play a big role in that context.
  7. For the point when there was the decision between death and Stannis' mercy. That you want to go on your own terms then is more than understandable. Cersei even told Sansa she would plead with any other man but Stannis for terms and stuff ... but she knew that she could not expect mercy from Stannis for her herself or her children. And I think she is completely on point there. Not sure how quickly the castle would surrender if the city were to fall. But I think some days or longer they could have held out precisely because the people at court knew that Stannis knows no mercy. Cersei doesn't have to prove she loves her children. We know that she does. What we can discuss is if her actions properly or adequately express her love.
  8. The point I was trying to make is that it is silly to measure love by way of 'sacrifices'. You also only have to sacrifice something if you are not rich or wealthy enough to live the life you want to with your family and loved ones. But we wouldn't say rich people can't love (their children) because they never or rarely have to sacrifice stuff. I'm not contradicting that it might be a more adult form of love to build strength and independence in children of a certain age. But that doesn't mean it is not love if you dote on your child and want to protect them. Also, the Red Keep wasn't a death trap. If KL were to fall then the castle could hold out some time still, perhaps even days or weeks, prolonging Joff's life. Not to mention that there are secret tunnels in the Red Keep allowing them to try to escape if push came to shove. The problem with recalling Joff was that it was bad for the morale of the loyalist troops in the city ... but using Joff in that capacity was already endangering his person.
  9. The comparison there is way off, for obvious reasons. There are some parallels in the sense that both women are actually quite ambitious and knowingly put their children into danger (Cat sends Ned and the girls down south, insist that he does that, and fuels his own doubts/paranoia about the Lannisters), but Catelyn certainly does care for her children in a different and more affectionate way than Cersei. She is also a much more empathetic person in general, overcoming her own grief and desire for vengeance for the sake of peace and reconciliation ... something Cersei will never even contemplate doing. Both women also driven to do stupid things out of love for the children. Cersei has her own brother arrested because she thinks he killed Joffrey, Catelyn actually frees Jaime and wants to exchange him against her two daughters (one of which they never heard anything about) when the chances for this are very low, especially without a proper and formal agreement. But it is silly to declare that Cersei doesn't love her children or that conditional love is somehow evil in and of itself. Cersei is a flawed parent, but much better than Robert or Jaime (who is not only a shitty father but also the worst uncle in the entire series). Sorry, but, what is that about? Are you some kind of love measurement device? Did your own parents' love for you involve some kind of sacrifice? Are you willing to sacrifice something to prove to your children or loved ones that you love them? Tommen is not safe with his council nor with the Tyrells. Those assheads murdered Joffrey so Margaery could marry him. If Tommen ever found out about it, this would cause him to actually avenge his elder brother and king. He would be honor-bound to do it. At best we can expect that Tommen would be safe until he finally knocked up and impregnated Margaery (a couple of times) - something Olenna actually wanted to speed up by suggesting that the married couple sleep together. Then they could get rid of him, too, and take over throne and government completely while ensuring that nobody is ever going to punish them for their regicide. We can discuss if Cersei is the ideal regent for Tommen ... but that is a different issue from whether it is her right (and perhaps even her duty) to take care of the interests of her minor child while said child is still a minor. In that sense Cersei is not all that different from Lysa Arryn - who is also not exactly an ideal regent for her son but who definitely loves him and his best interests at heart. In context we can also say that the danger for Tommen increases as his government is dominated more and more by people who are ever more distant relations and in-laws. Kevan would have done his duty, but he actually allowed that Tommen's own mother was paraded naked through the streets of Tommen's capital city. If my grand-uncle did that to my mother I knew what said grand-uncle could expect of me when I came of age. And the Tyrells are much worse, for obvious reasons. That is clearly an expression of love and it also puts Joff's well-being and needs before the well-being of the public or even the Crown. If you want to measure love that's a stronger sign than deliberately putting a minor in danger less he loses face with his subjects. In that sense you more care about your child as a monarch or leader and less about them as a person. Cersei shows there that she is a poor Queen Regent but not exactly a bad mother. Cat allowed Robb to personally lead his armies despite the fact that he had no right to call the banners nor the right to actually lead an army as a minor. His excuse that 'nobody else was there' made no sense as both he and Cat knew when he made them. Allowing Robb to continue at this blew up his ego and confidence and caused him to make crucial mistakes. Mistakes that wouldn't have been made had Cat actually continued to act as regent in Ned's absence (and then also as regent for Robb after Ned had been killed). Allowing Robb to much free rein so early allowed him to acquire too much authority too early, resulting first in his silly coronation and then in him ignoring his mother's advice and sending her from his side. There Cat gives in to the feudal values rather than actually doing the smart thing.
  10. Breach of guest right is something that is a huge sin in any case, independent of the question if there is a war going on or not. We could even say that guests and hosts usually are not at war, else they would not be visiting each other. In a war scenario we would more have a scenario where people breach the peace at a negotiation meeting. A most heinous crime there would have been the murder of the Young Dragon under a flag of truce. Although not breaking of guest right as a guest-host situation means you visit somebody at his home. Yes, we get that by the butchering of Peakes at the hands of the Red Lion in the wake of the fall of Starpike. We can also assume that commoners and thugs murdering highborn knights rather than taking them prisoner and ransoming them would be breach of 'normal conduct'. I assume some liege lord, prince, Hand, or king summarily sentencing captured highborn prisoners to death because they rebelled against him is accepted (e.g. Bloodraven executing lords in the wake of Whitewalls). Definitely. In the eyes of some generals only, I'd assume. Definitely if we talk the spoiling of highborn maidens and wives. Yes, that, too. I'd also say that just sacking a town or city that offered to surrender if there is really no need to sack it. That is why I think the Sacks of Bitterbridge and, especially, Tumbleton during the Dance are not exactly 'war business as usual'. That means you are an enemy of the Crown, can be declared an outlaw, be attainted and destroyed, etc. But it wouldn't be a war crime as such. War crimes are things that aren't even permitted in war.
  11. There are basically two ways for her to be queen. One would be as Tommen's short-lived successor if she gets back to KL with Lady Nym. That would be a kind of superfluous plot, I think, as Tommen's sudden death could just as well lead to the complete collapse of the Lannister-Tyrell regime. Not to mention that Tommen and Myrcella could both live long enough to fall into Aegon's hands alive. That could create the more interesting dilemma of what to do with them. That plot could also work if only one of them were alive, but I'm still struggling with the idea that many people at court would deem it a great idea to proclaim or crown a Queen Myrcella with enemies closing in on them from all side. Very few people would fight for a (most likely fake) girl queen. The other way would be for Myrcella to fall into Aegon's hands on the way to KL and her not becoming a queen regnant but merely Aegon's first (?) queen consort. That could be more interesting as it would cause us to ask what to do with Myrcella once she is no longer needed, i.e. after Aegon sits securely on the throne.
  12. LOL, what? The Hand has led the armies of the king in more than one occasion. And, again, in the king's absence he is effectively the king himself. There is no theory there. Arianne is told to gather information on Aegon and then decide by herself if the guy is the one they should go to war with or not. And she acts independently from Doran there, as his heir and successor. LOL, that isn't a theory, it is nonsense. If Lemore was Doran's agent then he wouldn't have sent Arianne to the Stormlands as this mission puts her in considerable danger. She could be captured or she could be killed. Not to mention that it would be completely pointless. Also, if Doran knew about Aegon he would have *never* sent Quentyn to Dany. If you want to theorize, do actually read the books. Reread the books. Arianne never conspired against her father specifically, she wanted to implement a plan to avenge House Martell on the Lannisters because she believed her father was to weak to do it. She was also partially motivated by her wrong assumption that her father wanted to disown her in favor of Quentyn ... but they got over both of those issues. It wasn't her house arrest that changed her mind but the subsequent revelation about Doran's plans with Oberyn, the old marriage pact between her and Viserys III, and the Quentyn mission. Arianne Martell is Doran's eldest child and anointed heir. He wants her to succeed him. And they both want the best for Dorne. They are on the same page.
  13. If you make somebody your voice they are not 'a field agent'. They speak for you, and their words are your words, even if they say stuff you wouldn't have said. That concept is very well-known in this world, in fact, with the office of Hand of the King. When the Hand speaks with the King's Voice he is, effectively, the king. His decrees, rulings, sentences are as binding as if the king himself had issued them. The king could eventually countermand them if and when he hears about them and doesn't agree ... but that would then be a new legal act, akin to the king changing his own mind on a matter he has ruled upon before. It is also quite silly to even question that Arianne is the one making the decision there. She has been asked to check out Aegon and to instruct the armies afterwards. We can expect her to also write to her father because she loves him and wants to keep him up to date ... but she doesn't have to. Her job is to check out Aegon and then decide whether there will be war or not. It is only her call.
  14. Sorry, now you are just making scenarios up. Sure enough, some could be seen as acts of war, but the Prince of Dorne could also just shrug and say what some bastard nieces of his did is not the will of Dorne. It still could cause King Tommen (or his government) to declare war on Dorne ... but good luck with that. They don't actually want that right now as they are surrounded and challenged by other enemies. They don't have the resources or manpower or money to invade Dorne - especially not while two Dornish armies are assembled in the two big passes in the Red Mountains. You are also kind of acting childish by wanting to ignore that Doran has given Arianne authority to make the decision whether the two Dornish armies should start a war or not. That will be the moment when Tommen's government can't ignore the Dornish issue anymore, not when some bastards try or don't try to murder some people. Not sure why you are obsessed with modernistic nonsense talk like 'commander-in-chief'. Such a title is never mentioned in this setting, and even if we were pretending that a king or ruling prince was a 'commander-in-chief' - which we don't actually know as there is obviously no clear military hierarchy in this feudal world - then that could only have practical consequences if the king or ruling prince was actually commanding the troops personally we talk about. Which Doran simply does not. What he did, though, was hand the authority to decide whether the armies that were assembled in his name are going to start a war or not. Which puts all the real authority in Arianne's hands. Nobody also said he was stepping down as Prince of Dorne - but he handed a crucial part of his authority and power as Prince of Dorne to his heir - the decision over war and peace. And he did that because he thinks his daughter is ready for that. Nobody also said he couldn't take that back by way of, say, sending letters to his generals in the passes to ignore any letters coming from Arianne or by changing the code phrases without telling her. But that could, obviously, only work before Arianne does send her letters to the generals. And there is not the slightest indication that he is going to have second thoughts like that. If he had wanted to control things he would have either gone to the Stormlands himself or he would have joined one of his armies personally or he would have not granted Arianne the authority to make the decision of war or peace. But he did what he did. And that puts all the crucial authority in Arianne's hands. It is also not that unlikely that Doran might know or think his days are numbered. His gout is very bad already and continuously drinking strong wine makes even worse. He could still live for some years, to be sure, but he is prepared and willing to slowly (or now somewhat faster) hand over power to his heir and successor. That seems to have been part of the reason why he brought her into his plans earlier and it is clearly the reason why he sent her to the Stormlands. To be sure - the loss of Oberyn would also be part of his reason there. His trusted brother and co-conspirator is gone and he is bound to a wheelchair and could not possibly go to the Stormlands himself. Arianne was the best choice there. But his decision to allow her to make the war-or-peace call shows that he trusts her more than he most likely would have trusted Oberyn in her stead. Hard to say. We could also just ask why Illyrio didn't just send Aegon and Connington to Qarth to fetch Dany or why Barristan was not presented to Aegon before he went to Qarth so he could give her a good reason to come with her to Pentos. The best in-universe answer for that kind of thing is likely the need for secrecy. Illyrio planned to have Dany to return to him unseen and in secret and have her to stay at a hidden place (with Aegon, perhaps) while her dragons grew large enough to mount a proper invasion. There is also little reason in context why Dany shouldn't go straight to Illyrio. Groleo and Barristan went to Qarth with three ships and she actually agreed to go back to Pentos with them. It was only after Jorah intervened, feeding her stories about the Unsullied, that she decided to take the Astapor detour. And that only became the longer detour after she hatched a plan to acquire all the Unsullied, making her army to large to fit on the three ships. Had she just gotten a couple of hundred or a thousand to not show up like a beggar in Pentos she could have continued with the three ships. Golden Company talk would have just confused everyone as they were the Blackfyre company once, and without the revelation about Aegon this would have just not made much sense. Especially since Viserys III apparently was ignorant about them, too. There are some hints that, behind the scenes, Varys did take steps to ensure that Dorne would join the Targaryens once they mounted their invasion. It seems clear that Varys fed Doran some information - either directly or through middle men - that he trusted, most notably the information about Cersei's plan to murder Trystane on the way back to KL. Cersei is no fool, she wouldn't have entrusted such knowledge to a large circle of people. Actually only Ser Balon Swann. But she may have told him in the White Sword Tower or the throne room or council chamber and not in the security (from little birds) of Maegor's Holdfast. If Varys is Doran's source on this then he would only trust him if he had fed him credible information in the past. It is also possible that Doran exchanged letters with Illyrio during the preparation of the Dothraki invasion plan. There might even have been closer interaction between Illyrio and Doran when the exiled Targaryens were younger as Viserys III surviving as long as he did from as young an age as he was when Willem Darry died is nothing short of a miracle. He and Dany must have been shielded by wealthy benefactors from the start, and Illyrio and Doran both certainly could have been among them. The fact that a brother to the Archon of Tyrosh is in Pentos at the reception where Dany is presented to Drogo could indicate that Doran is following the Targaryens-in-exile more closely than it seems. We do know that Arianne was to meet Viserys in secret while a ward in Tyrosh, and that could have only worked if there influential people in the Free Cities Doran trusted to keep such things from Robert. Doran may have gotten a close report from the Archon's brother about Dany's wedding and Targaryen-Dothraki invasion plans. But it is equally clear why Doran would have kept the marriage pact a really closely guarded secret. First because it was apparently made directly through Ser Willem Darry and Prince Oberyn while he was yet in Essos - that is, very shortly after the beginning of the exile, possibly before Oberyn even returned from his time in Essos where he was during the Rebellion - and second because it was a very dangerous thing to entrust to other people, even people who he knew or suspected had similar interests. In general, though, Dorne joining a promising looking Targaryen restoration attempt is something that Varys/Illyrio can take as a given. Recent events ensured they would not stand with the Baratheon-Lannister regime. In that sense this is similar to them having good reasons to expect a succession war in the Baratheon camp due to the twincest and other friction among the former rebels. But, of course, it is clear that Doran is so good at keeping secrets that even Varys/Illyrio never suspected or expected him to send his son to Dany in secret to try to marry her. They might have figured out why Doran is reluctant to give Arianne permission to marry ... but if they did they also never suspected or knew that he was daring and sly enough to actually arrange a marriage contract involving Viserys' hand. Which also makes sense as Darry's early death prevented him from telling Viserys in time. We can almost see that one reason Viserys III agreed to marry his little sister to Drogo was that Illyrio told he should give up the idea to marry his sister and instead remain free to marry a powerful heiress from Westeros - Arianne Martell - to secure Dornish support. Things only get complicated there if and when two Targaryen pretenders show up, and Dorne has to or already is firmly connected to one of them. If Quentyn had been successful and if Arianne and Doran would learn about that - which they still actually could learn in time in-universe if Quentyn had been successful - then Aegon would already be lost and little more than a distraction. Dorne would never declare for him.
  15. We can just stop it here. If Dorne attacks because Arianne's message tells the generals to attack then she - and she alone - will start this war. Doran Martell can't - and doesn't want to - stop that. And once fighting starts it will hard to stop. The one scenario I could see is that Arianne pretends to join Aegon only to double cross and kill him and Connington as I laid out above. That is a possibility how she could yet end up in King Tommen's camp. But even that is something she will have to decide. Doran Martell himself is out of the game entirely. He handed Dorne's fate and future to Arianne, his heir and successor. He doesn't want to be the 'commander-in-chief'. And of course Arianne is aware of the order Doran earlier gave to the generals of the armies. She would also know what castles/regions they are to attack and, of course, if Arianne were to want the Boneway (and the Prince's Pass's) army to help them at Storm's End she would also add that to her message(s) - or they would have been informed that this would be their goal when/before she set out to the Stormlands. Anything else would be strategic nonsense.
  16. The point is that he doesn't want to countermand anything. That is why he gave Arianne the authority she has. She will decide if and how and with whom Dorne goes to war, not Doran Martell. He trusts her to make the right call. If he wanted to make the final decision he would have not have given Arianne the code phrase and he would have told her to send a raven to Sunspear once she made up her mind on Aegon, so he, Doran, could make the final call. But that isn't the case. George has been asked if Varys/Illyrio knew about the marriage pact, and he said that they didn't know. That Doran has no clue about Aegon is also very obvious as Aegon and Quentyn would not have been rivals for Dany's hand if the men behind them had known about the plans of the other faction. And neither Connington nor Varys/Illyrio would expect that there is a chance that Dorne would join them if they had known or suspected that Quentyn Martell went secretly to Meereen and might, right now, actually be married to Daenerys Targaryen. Doran and Arianne deliberately kept the Quentyn plan from the Sand Snakes ... but it is clear that the war will start once Dany and Quentyn arrive at the latest. It could also mean war if/when the powers in KL find out about what exactly happened to Myrcella and why. Of course, your notion that Myrcella is dead is nonsense, but once Myrcella is back home with Tommen and Cersei and the Tyrells she might tell the true story ... and that could definitely trigger a war between the Iron Throne and Dorne declared by King Tommen. It would have, back when Cersei was still running the government. Now the Tyrells might have other priorities. The Sand Snakes, Doran, Arianne, etc. finding out the truth about Gregor Clegane's current state could also be the final straw to break the camel's back, but considering the time line Arianne might already be at Storm's End by that time, so this might be more fuel to the fire, but not necessarily something that has a direct effect on Dorne's decision to go to war (Nym and Tyene likely have no chance to directly contact Arianne at Storm's End since they don't even know she went to the Stormlands). However, it certainly could cause open violence or deadly schemes in KL. It is also a stretch to assume that Lady Nym and Myrcella will definitely make it to KL. With the current time line it is not impossible that the Golden Company chanced on and captured their party on the way to KL while they were crossing the Stormlands. Doran's entire policy of postponing the war revolves around waiting for a time when the damage for Dorne and the suffering of the Dornish people can be kept to a minimum. He doesn't want to do shit like some Sand Snakes and Arianne planned, provoking the Iron Throne into invading Dorne. He wants to create a scenario where Dornishmen will fight outside Dorne to accomplish what he wants - revenge on the Lannisters and a restoration of a Targaryen monarch with a Martell consort at their side.
  17. I guess you didn't read the sample chapters? They confirm that Arianne Martell has been granted authority by her lord father, the Prince of Dorne, to decide what Dorne is going to do with this Aegon situation. She will send back ravens to the two armies in the passes, telling their generals to either stay out of the war or to attack. They even chose code phrases which do ensure that she can't be forced to write anything against her will as the words one would expect her to write if the armies where to attack will tell the generals to do exactly the opposite. Doran Martell put himself out of the game and ceded authority to decide what Dorne should do to his daughter and heir. And he would only do that if he (1) trusted Arianne's judgment, and (2) felt the need to have a person he trusts to check out this Aegon chap. If he felt differently he could have just commanded his two armies to join Jon Connington at Griffin's Roost rather than sending his own daughter as an envoy to them. The armies have already been assembled, after all, and only need his word to attack. We also know from George's own mouth that Varys/Illyrio have no clue about the Quentyn-Dany plan nor the original marriage contract between Viserys III and Arianne Martell. Connington's and the Golden Company's expectation that Dorne will join Aegon is pretty naive. Doran Martell had his own secret plans and he and Arianne will only join team Aegon wholeheartedly if and when Arianne has reason to believe her brother and his supposed wife are not showing up. Before that, Arianne might not commit herself - and if she does then not fully or with the intention to only use this Aegon guy as a tool to weaken Tommen's government so that Dany and Quentyn will have an easier time taking the throne. The time for them to forge a real and lasting alliance would only come when they both know/believe the Quentyn-Dany plan is fallen through. Also, of course, Aegon might only yield and decide to actually marry Arianne after he and his people start to believe that Daenerys is actually dead or at least very unlikely to come to Westeros at all (that would be after reports about the Hizdahr wedding and/or her disappearance/alleged death reach Westeros). That is an obvious reference to his plans with Dany and Quentyn. Arianne is not stupid and for the Martells this entire Aegon scheme must clearly be a joke. If it had been real then Connington and his allies should and would have included the Martells in their game. That they kept this secret from them is a strong hint that these people try to manipulate them into joining a shady war. Once Arianne meets with Aegon and Jon she will have them at their knees begging for their help. They have to meet all her demands or there will be no help. If she doesn't send out the messages there won't be any Dornish support, and if they try to fool her then the Dornish troops might help Aegon at first, only to take him captive later to send his and Connington's head to King Tommen. While Trystane Martell is yet betrothed to Princess Myrcella the Iron Throne and Sunspear are still close allies. If Arianne pretended to support the fake Targaryen pretender only for her army to kill him and thus neutralize the threat to King Tommen she would be the hero of the day. Even if Arianne for some reason believed Aegon was the real deal ... her father and she made already another plan involving Quentyn and a Targaryen queen with actual dragons. Putting Aegon on the throne now would undermine their own plan, would complicate things once Dany and Quentyn show up with a large invasion force, so what we can expect is lukewarm support at best. In fact, the likeliest scenario is that Arianne will be decide to sit back and wait how Aegon is going to deal with the Tyrell army. From the sample chapters we know that the fall of Storm's End to Aegon will cause the Tyrell army to march against the castle, and one look at the map shows that the distance between KL and Storm's End is much shorter than the distance between the Boneway (not to speak of the Prince's Pass) and Storm's End. So even if Arianne would send a message to her armies to tell them to help Aegon to fight the Tyrells ... they would likely only arrive at Storm's End after the battle there was already fought. If Jon and Aegon actually find a way to beat a Tyrell army twice or thrice the size of her own army then she might actually be convinced that they have a really good chance at winning their war. Also, of course, by that time credible reports about the Quentyn-Dany situation might have reached her, so such a decision would be easier. Arianne is not going to make a fast decision there as her father has taught her a number of valuable lessons recently ... and she herself has learned the hard way that bad planning and scheming can have dire consequences.
  18. Guys, if Aegon already had Dorne we wouldn't get an Arianne subplot in her own chapters where she is sent to the Stormlands by her father to determine if Aegon is the real deal and/or if he is it worth it to support him. Doran and Arianne have their own Daenerys plan involving Quentyn, and until they receive confirmation that this plan is not going to be realized - which will be only when/if word reaches Sunspear that Dany is dead/disappeared and/or that Quentyn is also dead. That should take quite some time. Up until that point Dornish support might not be forthcoming or their commitment might be lukewarm at best. More importantly, Arianne is rather annoyed in her own chapters that her little brother is about to be made a king consort. If she were to buy Aegon's story or at least pretend to buy it in communication with her father and her bannermen ... then this is likely going to cost Aegon. She will demand his hand in exchange Dornish support, and if they won't agree then the Dornish armies won't march ... or will march to help the Tyrells crush the Golden Company. It might be that they will only agree to a betrothal and only have a wedding after they have taken KL and the Iron Throne - and by then they might have received news about the failure of the Quentyn plan. But up until Quentyn's death is confirmed - and reports about Dany's marriage to Hizdahr and her disappearance/death have reached them - Dorne will also be prepared to only use this Aegon guy as a pawn to topple the Lannister, being prepared to stab the fake pretender in the back once Dany and Quentyn to show. Aegon is a great instrument to be used and eventually be discarded at this point. And, honestly, I think there is small to no chance that Arianne is going to actually buy Aegon's story. If she supports him then because she likes him and what she might be able to accomplish through him, but not because she actually buys this guy is her first cousin.
  19. In Westeros we pretty much hear that this thing is pretty simple: Namely, that a lord can call his banners only for 'a time'. It might have been different back before the Conquest when there was continuous warfare but that would also have allowed every lord to just bend the knee to a different king if his lands were in the border region between, say, the Reach and the West. This also makes it clear that long campaigns and wars are pretty much impossible in this setting. We even see this in the Targaryen days when Theo Tyrell pretty much tells Aegon the Conqueror to fuck off when he wants to continue the war after Theo's father Harlan disappeared with his entire army in Dorne. There would have been feelings of revenge, etc. with Theo to be sure ... but if the guys in charge lack both the right and means to force their bannermen and vassals to fight for a longer time then they simply don't. Ditto with Daeron's Conquest. His war lasted pretty long already, and the good thing was that it was successful at first. But it stands to reason that the army he raised to crush the Dornish insurrection was but a fraction of the forces he marshaled for the original invasion. I guess the Crown and very wealthy lords could maintain years-long-campaigns by way of hiring landless second sons and the like as Prince Daemon does (with his brother's help) for his Stepstones campaigns. But such a war could not be maintained for long by way of the king calling his banners. I'm actually looking forward to the details of the War of the Ninepenny Kings as that actually was the only known Targaryen war on foreign soil which was conducted as an invasion army. It will be interesting to see how Aegon V and Jaehaerys II after him convinced the lords to raise men for this war. Dorne and the Stormlands may have felt mildly threatened by the Band of Nine, but the rest of the Seven Kingdoms should have just shrugged and said that this wasn't their problem. We can also expect the Starks eventually crushing that Skagos Rebellion in the North would have been a nightmarish operation as it apparently was a long war of attrition and most Northmen shouldn't have cared much about Skagos and would have thus refused to fight and die there once they had done their feudal duty. It might have been different in regions where the Skagosi invaded in turn, but since they lack ships that shouldn't have happened much (or at all).
  20. Pretty sure the disappearance of Lady Rohanne in 230 AC, three years before Egg took the throne, will be covered in a later Dunk & Egg novella. And they might see each other earlier, too. Keep in mind that Lord Gerold Lannister's support is crucial for Egg to win the throne at the Great Council in 233 AC. It seems quite likely that Dunk & Egg befriend Lord Gerold through Rohanne, and that friendship lasts well into Egg's reign. Without it, Tywin might not have been taken in as a ward by Aegon V, which allowed him to befriend young Aerys. To be sure, it is a big problem that people don't seem to know or care about any Targaryen cousins with claims to the throne. Nobody seems to know or care who could sit the throne if Tommen/Myrcella and Stannis/Shireen were to die. That is pretty odd as everybody in the Vale knows who comes next after Lord Robert Arryn - Harrold Hardyng, 'the Heir'. After the death of both Renly and Joffrey such people should have come to the fore. Tywin would have either called them to court or pushed them away to keep their ambitions in check. They would be considered as matches by other ambitious families at court - by the Tyrells, especially - and many people would wonder if they could or would make good kings or queens. If Brienne and Lord Selwyn before her would be considered as such claimants they would be talked about and treated quite differently. Both the Lannisters/Tyrells and Stannis' people would not want to see the Martells successfully pushing their claims for the Iron Throne ... and in the absence of any other claimants they might actually have the best shot. They are high nobility of Targaryen descent, after all. And the Baratheon claim goes through Rhaelle-Ormund, so technically if that branch were to die out completely, the next Targaryen cousin down the branch would be in line to the throne. That would mean descendants of Egg's siblings, brothers and sisters, followed directly by the Targaryen-Martells who would come next as descendants of Daeron II's only sibling. Even if the guys in charge wanted to change things, to not take such a route, traditional thinking would cause a lot of people at court to think in such lines, to look for the next king or queen among such people, so they would definitely be a factor.
  21. Nah, the notion that companies which in-universe, so far, have only committed to any known employer with their full strength would routinely do the opposite doesn't fit very well with what we know so far. Keep in mind that we actually do know some of the contracts of the Golden Company and other free companies. The idea that the contracts the Golden Company takes are 'probably not long term' is also without basis. They would last as long as their employer needed them, and some campaigns or wars they would be hired for would last long and others would be pretty short. As is the assumption that their reputation of professionalism and business model could flourish in an environment of ever shifting alliances and continuous warfare. Especially with the Golden Company who are known to never break a contract. That reputation would be a joke if they had men fighting for a lot of people at the same time and clauses stipulating that under such conditions they could not participating in any fighting. No need to ask, we can deduce that the Golden Company are in demand in the Disputed Lands from the text we have. And what we know about their campaigns involves them fighting together, not in small batches. We also don't hear anything about the Yunkai'i hiring companies in smaller batches - they hire complete companies, period - nor, more importantly, does the idea to split the company come up when the officers debate whether to go Meereen or to Westeros. A big logistic problem they face is that they can't move all 10,000 men to Slaver's Bay at that point. But that wouldn't be a big issue if they routinely sent hundreds or a few thousands up and down the coast of Essos. If your take was a thing in-universe George would really have to answer the question why Connington didn't send at least some men to Dany after the decision was made to go to Westeros. He wants and expects her to come eventually, wants to keep Aegon free to marry her, but to facilitate this some envoys at Meereen would have been rather nice. (Of course, once the invasion was decided Aegon would be in need of most of the men in Westeros. But they could have spared a couple of hundred men for that mission.) Thinking further - it would also be rather convenient for the plot that the Golden Company has just a rare 'full company contract' with Myr which they then break so that the entire company can meet with Connington and Aegon - which they do. If it were common practice to spread out the men then we would expect some of them to be in, well, Qohor or Norvos or Lorath at that time. Hell, it might then even have been expected that some would have been in Slaver's Bay - like the Second Sons and Stormcrows - when Dany shows up there. Yeah, the difference is not that big, as feudal obligations also only last for a time and can't be drawn out indefinitely. Which is why during really long campaigns and constant warfare you inevitably got a professionalization of warfare by way of a mercenary industry.
  22. Brienne is seems to be ignorant about that part of her family's history ... but that does not only extend to Dunk but also her Targaryen ancestry. Nobody seems to be aware of that - or if they are, they don't care much. It could easily be explained by Lord Selwyn's mother (Dunk's and Daella's daughter, in my scenario) being present and burning at Summerhall with her father. It is already established that those being there rarely talked about what happened there. And Selwyn could have been there, too, but being one of the survivors. In such a scenario he might not have talked about it with his daughter ... and the entire topic could have been taboo at Evenfall Hall. Ditto, actually, with the Lannisters if Tywin was there with Aerys and Rhaella and Steffon. He might have never spoken about it with his children, too, explaining why Jaime also seems to be ignorant about Brienne's ancestry. Regarding the shield and arms - if Dunk is ever granted a lordship, his arms might actually change. In fact, the fact that the village of Pennytree is a royal fief as per ADwD could be the case because Aerys I or Maekar grant the place to Dunk as a holding, making him the effective heir and successor of Ser Arlan of Pennytree. It would then revoke to the Crown when Dunk - as the Knight or Lord of Pennytree joins the KG in the absence of a male heir. If that were to happen after his daughter has already married Lord Tarth she might no longer be eligible to inherit a seat of her own, anyway. Oh, I'm sure (and hope) Dunk will have some real romances and affairs with unmarried (commoner) women (like Old or rather Young Nan, say) before he grows older. But I don't think he will ever mess around with royal princesses or highborn ladies. And he might also not be all that keen to dishonor commoner women. I mean, we could also speculate if and which son of Rohanne Webber born to Gerold Lannister is going to turn out Dunk's son ... but I doubt that he would dare to pull off something like this. If either Tytos or Jason were Dunk's, then quite a few of the present Lannisters would be Dunk's descendants. And that would be very odd and feels quite weird.
  23. That sounds like an odd idea with the Golden Company as a company with their honor and integrity couldn't possibly risk having a number of smaller contingents of their men ending up on different sides. Imagine 2,000 men of the company enter into a five-year-contract to defend Lys, say, and another sign up with Myr, only for one or both those cities deciding to attack each other. You could not foresee this, but professionalism and honor would then dictate that the Golden Company fight each other ... which would defeat the entire purpose of the company which is to grow strong and powerful enough to return to Westeros one day to conquer the Iron Throne in the name of a Blackfyre pretender. It seems rather more likely that the constant fighting in the Disputed Lands does involve a lot of fighting men, meaning that 10,000 Golden Company men are not exactly a big deal (again - for the Volantenes the presence of the Golden Company in their lands is no big deal - the triarchs are concerned a bit, but don't feel threatened and they can easily dump them on the Westerosi shore by calling upon non-military traders in their harbor). It is also possible that the Golden Company in itself didn't always have 10,000 men but rather grew in size as its reputation grew over the years. I'd be surprised if Daeron II actually did exile 10,000 or more lords, knights, and commoners in the wake of the Redgrass Field ... but even if he did and if later Blackfyre Rebellions forced more men into exile (the Third Rebellion could have resulted in some such) it should have taken Bittersteel a long time to actually draw many or all the Westerosi exiles together in his company. He himself fought with Second Sons for a time - likely before he founded the Golden Company in 212 AC, possibly in reaction to the disaster that was the Second Blackfyre Rebellion -, and other exiles might have stayed with that or some other company. We know Aerion Brightflame fought with the Second Sons, too, during his exile ... if some old Blackfyre loyalists remained with that company they might have decided to attach themselves to a real prince, eventually returning with Aerion to Westeros once he was allowed to come back home. Also, of course, Bittersteel seems to have been a complicated and not exactly likable man. So we can easily imagine that his style and manner of command didn't make him all that popular with his men, at least at times. I think we do have the number of two score of free companies being active in the Disputed Lands (and others might be active elsewhere in Essos, between the Bones and the Narrow Sea). That could mean that not only tens of thousands of sellsword were active in those lands, but actually over a hundred thousands. 40 times 2,000 is already 80,000, and we could easily assume that some free companies had three or four or five thousand men, while others might only have one thousand or five hundred.
  24. Nah, some princess marrying a knight (who could easily be a lord by that time, being granted lands and a castle as reward for his service during the Third Blackfyre Rebellion, say) isn't the same. Duncan the Small was a betrothed Prince of Dragonstone, the Heir Apparent, when he ran away with some peasant girl. Daella Targaryen is a girl and the fourth child of a prince who will be spurned by her betrothed. Her children have little to no chance to succeed to the throne ... and her marrying Dunk might very well involve her giving up her claim to the throne. Weirdo marriages for princesses and even dowager queens are well-attested - Androw Farman, some of the suggestions for Daella and Saera, an aging Lord Manderly, Alyn Velaryon (a baseborn bastard), Corwyn Corbray & Garmund Hightower, Ossifer Plumm & Michael Manwoody, etc. It is right that this match wouldn't be direct ... but in light of the fact that Dunk doesn't have a family name his children might very well go by the name of their mother, especially if she got a name. But it would be still much more direct than some more distant match. Any child of Daella's or Rhae's would still be the nephew of a king once Aegon V took the throne. I don't see Dunk pulling off something like that with a sister of Egg and surviving it (with his honor intact). Especially not as a KG but also not as Egg's (and Maekar's) friend. The Targaryens are not likely to forgive a transgression like this. If something happened between Daella (or Rhae) and Dunk, he would have to marry her. And he would also not be a coward to keep something like that a secret. Also, Dunk isn't really a ladies' man. So far there is neither a proper romance happening nor any sex. And I'm pretty sure that Dunk is not the type to sleep with a married woman or a woman betrothed to somebody else who would like to marry her betrothed. If she and Dunk fell for each other they would not act on their feelings while Daella was yet betrothed to Egg ... or only if Dunk already knew that Egg would never marry Daella. What we know about Dunk also indicates that he doesn't want the KG or a life in celibacy in some other order ... but fame and station and a wife and, presumably, children. So the chances that ends up marrying before he joins the KG are actually pretty good. That he would join the KG makes only sense after his best friend and former squire ascends the throne and he and his family are in dire need of help and protection. (Unless Dunk, for some reason, grows very close to Aerys I, Bloodraven, or Rhaegel and his children before their deaths. But that's not all that likely. And while Dunk might become a kind of friend to Maekar, joining his KG would mean to protect and - eventually, perhaps - serve a King Daeron III or Aerion. That is not a burden the guy would take on voluntarily.) There is also Aerion to consider. He seems to have wanted a sister to marry, so why didn't Aerion claim Daella after Egg fell for and eventually married Betha? Daella is Egg's elder sister, closer in age to Aerion than Rhae, and chances are low that Aerion ended up with Daenora before his sisters married as by TMK she doesn't even seem to have been born. My guess is that Dunk might end up marrying Daella in part to protect her from Aerion. Also, if something like that is going to happen we also have to consider Daella. Dunk isn't the type to dream about a royal wife, but since Daella is Egg's betrothed and sister, she is going to meet him eventually and they might spend a lot of time together at Summerhall and/or in KL. If she were determined to have him, he would not resist forever, especially if realized he loved her, too. But to be sure - it is easily imaginable that this thing is going to be a big scandal, leading to Dunk and Daella to fall into disfavor and to settle somewhere in the countryside or even in Essos. With there only being a reconciliation in the wake of Daella's death. Even Dunk & Egg might not be close friends throughout their lives. There could be longer periods of estrangement between the two. For instance, I don't even think that Dunk would be keen to live at court during Maekar's reign as we know that Maekar called all his four sons to court. Even if Dunk wasn't a KG at that time, as a household knight/sworn sword/retainer of King Maekar he would still be physically close to Aerion Brightflame all the time. That would mean constant trouble. Of course, there is a small chance that they overcome their issues ... but that is not very likely.
  25. That is why I mentioned that the leadership of quite a few free companies are members of Free City elites. They would not only represent certain factions within their city states, but also act upon the behalf of said factions in the various conflicts with other cities. Some would fight for anyone, but others might have a tendency to stand with their home city in most conflicts or effectively be the part of the outsourced military of that city.
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