Lord Varys

On 2/7/2024 at 10:46 PM, Alester Florent said:

In any case, "whilst in the cradle" is unambiguous. I guess it's not impossible that Jace was still "in the cradle" when Joffrey was born, but those Velaryon boys were big lads, and he'd surely have graduated to a proper bed by then.

Yeah, that makes no sense. It is also a stretch that Alicent would have loudly bitched about the boys while there was only Jace around.

With Joff as a three-year-old challenging Aemond those lads didn't spend a long time in the cradle.

Sunfyre might not have been a cradle egg dragon as he hatched on Dragonstone. 

We actually do have a description of one Strong, Lucamore. He is blond, as per his description in FaB. That means the chances are not bad that Lyonel, Larys, and Harwin (or some of them) were blond, too. It is also noteworthy that this description entered the book long after the writing process of the Viserys and Dance chapters. If George had intended to make the Strongs a family of predominantly brown-haired and brown-eyed people he could have easily done so in the description of Lucamore. He could also have added descriptions for Lyonel, Harwin and Larys. But he didn't.

Also note that Alicent's accusation is not that the boys look like Harwin Strong or Strongs specifically. Her claim is that they look 'common'. The issue is that they lack the royal Valyrian looks Alicent's children have. Harwin is put forth as the potential 'true father' because he is Rhaenyra's constant companion, not because he resembled the children.

On 1/20/2024 at 2:30 AM, The Grey Wolf Strikes Back said:

I mean, Aemon was frail and blind and that didn't stop him from being an asset despite no longer being able to do things like read or write as a result.

Aemon was a man in his prime and an accomplished and useful maester when he took the black. And he is still useful as hell as a frail and blind old man.

And of course the Watch takes care of their old and frail as well as those who are injured and crippled while protecting the realms of men ... but the Watch isn't the soup kitchen for useless highborn cripples. Aegon II has no skills he can offer the Watch.

On 1/20/2024 at 2:30 AM, The Grey Wolf Strikes Back said:

Also, what I was trying to say is that if he was actively mediocre I think Gyldayn would have mentioned it the way he did with Aenys. Furthermore, I think its important thematically that Daeron II was the first Targaryen king who wasn't able to even pretend to be a warrior, let alone a knight.

Gyldayn contrasts Aenys and Maegor - nice mediocre warrior, paranoid super warrior - but he doesn't do that for all the princes. Viserys I's martial abilities - whose spitting image Aegon II is - aren't discussed, either.

5 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Corlys was just saying anything to make Aegon II surrender. He knows that Aegon II is a doomed man, and maybe even Aegon himself knew it, because he actually considers what Corlys has to say. 

From what Corlys later did it is clear that he meant what he said there - and had he run Aegon III's government he would have upheld the bargain. But he may not have run the government and Aegon II may not have survived the transfer of power.

6 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Killing Aegon III does mean the end of House Targaryen, mind. He's the last (known) male Targ, and while it's theoretically possible Aegon II might have more kids, it also doesn't seem enormously likely.

Aegon planned to remarry precisely to have more sons. And then his nephew would have been dead. Possibly earlier if his faction had decidedly won the war on thee Kingsroad.

But House Targaryen could also continue through Jaehaera if push came to shove. If Aegon was truly sterile or impotent due to his many injuries (which is actually not unlikely at all) then he could have had grandsons through his only surviving child. Injuries or not, the man was in his early 20s. He could have lived and reigned 40 years or more.

1 hour ago, The Grey Wolf Strikes Back said:

@Lord Varys

Aegon II could serve with the stewards given his literacy and education, cripple or not. Also, Aegon II might not have been the exemplary swordsman Aemond was stated to be and that Daeron might have grown into but I'm pretty sure if he was actively poor Gyldayn would have made mention of that fact.

Stewards actually do work, and Aegon can barely walk. There are no badly crippled stewards at the Wall as far as we know, and for good reasons. The NW is a military order of fighting men, not a soup kitchen for useless mouths.

Aegon was trained at arms, but turned into a wastrel, and there isn't even an indication he ever participated in a tourney or otherwise showed significant skills at arms. And neither did Daeron. Both were good dragonriders, but for that skill to mean anything you need a dragon.

Also think about the Clubfoot choosing death. The best reason for that self-destructive choice would have been that his disability would have turked his life a living hell up in the cold. And he would have known that. Injuries like Aegon's would have been even worse. The guy would have been of no use to anyone.

3 hours ago, James Steller said:

No, that doesn’t make sense to me. If Aegon II joined the Night’s Watch, then that’s it for him. If a man of the Night’s Watch could be summoned from the Wall to who knows where to answer for his old crimes, then that undermines everything that the Watch stands for regarding its recruits. Such an action had never been done before. Robb naming Jon Snow as his heir was a highly controversial and unprecedented decision which he only made out of sheer desperation. And nobody would have recognised Jon’s authority even if Robb did try and take him back.

My point simply was that Prince Aegon might be convinced to allow his uncle to take the black if he was abdicating in his favor ... while King Aegon III might change his mind on that before Aegon II could leave for the Wall, taking his head with the support of the new Blacks at court.

Aegon II would have been nothing but a useless mouth at the Wall, anyway. A cripple who wasn't even a fighter before he lost the use of one leg for good, and neither a tutor or healer nor administrator.

That would kind of fit with how Jaehaerys I treated the turncloak KG before and after he had taken power.

Offing Aegon II at the Wall should have been easy. Either command the Lord Commander to do it or actually go there yourself with a large enough retinue. Pretexts could easily be found. Aegon was clearly foolish enough to be goaded into treason and desertion with the promise that some alleged loyalists would restore him to the throne.

The point there is more that Alicent didn't want her craven son to take the black and abandon her and their cause.

But to be sure, even if little Aegon had decided to allow his uncle to take the black, the Lads, Cregan, and Jeyne Arryn might have still decided to put him down as a minor king could not make such decisions on his own. Not to mention that Aegon III himself could have changed his mind after his coronation.

On 1/17/2024 at 2:50 PM, Hippocras said:

@Lord Varys we will just have to agree to disagree if you think Cersei’s arc is about meek submission and accepting defeat. I feel like you learned nothing from how she dealt with being cornered by Ned.

Nobody said that - but the notion that she can regain power now that she lost it so completely and with the non-existent means is just unrealistic. Even more so in light of the Aegon and Euron plots. There is no time for this. Cersei's arc is one of longterm revenge not one where she is back in the saddle in a fortnight which she just lost a fortnight ago.

On 1/17/2024 at 2:50 PM, Hippocras said:

You seem to want me to write GRRM’s book for him before you will believe me, but that is not what this debate is really about for me at all. I really, personally, have no stake in particular ideas of HOW Cersei will turn her situation around. I just know that she will. The how depends on how the pieces on the game board move in the first half of Winds. If you can’t accept that she will, without knowing exactly how, then I can’t help you.

You are showing what I wrote about earlier. Nobody with your scenario in mind can flesh out details in a realistic manner. All people offer is 'I want to believe this will happen'. That is literally nothing. If you can't imagine how your scenario can play out how can you imagine that George (or anyone) can write this?

On 1/17/2024 at 2:50 PM, Hippocras said:

As for Euron’s goals, I do know he eventually wants the Iron Throne. I also am fully aware the Shields are just a distraction and even said as much. But there is more going on with Euron’s storyline than that. He does not want to seduce Dany and live happily ever after; he wants to control her and her dragons. He is the one who opens the gate for dark magic actors such as warlocks (who want Dany’s power for themselves) in order to do so. He is after the maesters, the Citadel library, AND the Iron Throne. And if the Shields are a diversion, Oldtown is an even bigger and better one. It seems it is not just Cersei you underestimate, but also Euron.

There is no textual evidence for this. Euron doesn't even mention Oldtown as a stepping stone or goal in his talk with Aeron, and he is rather forthcoming in those. Not to mention that we know he originally wanted to go to Meereen himself with the entire Ironborn fleet - which means he never so much as thought about Oldtown.

The Arbor is also nothing he wants - he will take it to keep his forces sweet, to kill time, to finance future campaigns and, of course, because he has to crush the only naval power in Westeros which could challenge him.

Once the Redwyne fleet is gone, the Hightowers might bend the knee, anyway. Euron will control their waters for good then, and their wealth is dependent on naval trade. To continue it they will have to accept Euron's terms. And we can imagine that he will offer them favorable terms as he has no shot at the Iron Throne if he antagonizes everybody.

If he were to attack and storm and sack Oldtown his chances to gain the allegiance and support of mainland lords and knights will be minimal to non-existent. If he shows mercy and good will, however, the pragmatic Reach lords along the coast will join him for the time being like they did with other Ironborn kings in the past.

On 1/17/2024 at 2:50 PM, Hippocras said:

You seem to forget that Redwynes are Tyrell bannermen. Ergo Reach forces.

You have to research better. Cersei had Paxter's twins as hostages which is why the Redwynes stayed out of the war until after the Blackwater. They were not part of Renly's Reach forces.

15 hours ago, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Rather pessimistic if that were true.  There are good people like Lord Beesbury and many more who put loyalty above raising their station.  Yes It is undeniable that the house of the Dragons have differences between them.  It was her father who put the thoughts in her head. 

We don't really know to what degree Alicent's ambitions were prompted by Otto. The factionalism at court (Blacks vs. Greens) wasn't his doing as he left KL before those factions developed.

Alicent as a person shares the bulk of the blame that she didn't get along with her stepdaughter as Rhaenyra was yet very young when she married her father. She could have won her love and devotion if she had tried. That they started to hate each other is not because Rhaenyra was a natural asshole but rather because Alicent didn't want them to get along (no indication Rhaenyra ever bullied Alicent in the book - but for Alicent we have a number of toxic remarks recorded, e.g. the comment about her not being safe from Criston Cole, the comments about the looks of her children, etc.).

However, them not getting along isn't the same as one faction staging a coup. Daemon and Viserys I had their bad times, too, yet Daemon never rebelled nor did he try to depose his brother. But staging a coup goes not down to family affiliations outside the royal family but to ambition within the royal family. Alicent and Otto wanted to keep their status as queen and Hand, wanted to rule through/with their blood rather than be dependent on Rhaenyra's good will. They were not, in the end, acting on behalf of House Hightower. Rather they pushed Lord Ormund to support them, Lord Ormund didn't use them to increase the influence of House Hightower.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Access to Myrcella will be lost when Myrcella does not make it to KL. Access to Tommen is temporarily restricted by the Faith, which is why she will plot to destroy them. And if it means reaching Tommen she definitely will go loose cannon, because getting to him and then keeping him beside her is the only thing she cares about ATM.

I can see Cersei trying to abduct Tommen from KL because she fears for his life, yes, but not to stay there. That is overall a ridiculous scenario as Cersei actually fears death and her enemies lurk in the walls of the castle. She could kill everyone in KL and still not feel safe in the Red Keep.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Some of the Reach forces already left to go to Dragonstone, and the quick assault cost many many lives. The Redwyne fleet (we learn in WoW Arianne 1) passed the Stepstones and is headed to defend Oldtown but it is not at all clear they will arrive in time. Any of those who helped with the assault on Dragonstone and did not stay there are with that fleet, not back in KL.

Nope, those were Redwyne men and men sent to Dragonstone earlier.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Another group of Reach forces will leave for Storm’s End after Margaery’s trial. But I agree some remain for now. At Storm’s End (we learn in Arianne 2) Aegon does not plan to sit tight for a siege. So the Reach forces there will immediately face the Golden Company and its elephants. Possibly the Reach has better numbers there, but Aegon and the Golden Company get to choose their ground and the elephants will be a factor as well. There will be a big battle and a lot of people will die on both sides, but I predict Aegon will win that confrontation, and will therefore capture or kill Mace Tyrell and several other key leaders from the Reach.

Sure enough, but doesn't give Cersei any power, it will only hasten the collapse of Cersei's government as KL will then be ripe for the taking.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Meanwhile Euron will take Oldtown. Willas can’t get there in time to do anything about it, because he did not have boats to transport his army. He asked for boats to retake the Shields, but Cersei would not allow the Redwyne fleet to leave until Dragonstone was taken if you recall. Until Euron showed up at Oldtown, the focus of the Reach leaders was on the Shields, so they would never have started marching by land to Oldtown. By the time they hear Euron is at Oldtown it will be too late to get there.

Euron has no plans to take Oldtown. He wants the Iron Throne, not waste his men to take a city on the mainland he could never hope to hold. Once he has dealt with the Redwynes he might take the Arbor, and then Oldtown might do him homage as their king to save their trade ... but he won't storm the place.

I mean, haven't you read the sample chapter? Euron awaits Paxter off the Arbor. He is not on the way to Oldtown.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Once Oldtown falls, both the Mander and the Honeywine will be fully open to Ironborn raiders. Highgarden is on the Mander, and Brightwater Keep (Garlan’s new seat) is on the Honeywine. Euron will attack up and down both rivers with little to stop him. This will cause Willas and Garlan’s armies to suffer as various lords recall their soldiers to defend their own homes. So Willas will call for help from KL. Mace, being captured or dead, will not be around to demand Reach forces stay in KL to protect Margaery.

Euron doesn't give shit about the Shields and the Mander. People perceive the fall of the islands as a threat, but the whole thing is a distraction - both for the Ironborn and the Reach.

You don't seem to understand what Euron wants.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Some people are not self-respecting. Many people in KL, at this point, have ALSO been hounded and shamed by the zealots. If she is going to be called a whore anyway, then she will make herself queen of the whores and lead their underground rebellion.

Can you give examples for that and tell us those would put such hypothetical people in relation to Cersei?

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Doubt that. She has Qyburn, and she even has the help of Varys for now, who would rather see her in power than the Tyrells because she makes it easier for Aegon to win hearts and minds. So Varys will make sure both she and Qyburn know KL’s underground secrets, including any wildfire to the extent that it serves Aegon’s cause.

Varys never said he wants Cersei in power. He said Kevan was undoing Cersei's fuckery. There is no indication that Varys deems Mace and Randyll as competent rulers. If you check the Epilogue then Randyll is pissed about Margaery's trial, suggesting they put the sparrows in their place with force. He and Mace could do that, Cersei can't.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Whatever had not been found will be found and transported to where Cersei wants it by the temporary alliance of Cersei, the anti-Faith underground and whores of KL, and Qyburn who is helped, whether he knows it or not, by Varys. The pyromancers also like Cersei, and may even help her themselves.

LOL, perhaps in your mind, but not in a consistently written book series like ASoIaF.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Your assumption over and over is that the means to power for Cersei is to convince Tyrells to follow her. That is not it at all. The means to power for Cersei is access to and control of her son, combined with neutralization of the Faith Millitant. She will kidnap Tommen if that is what she needs to do. She has no concern for his happiness, only his claim to power. As long as she has him and can block Tyrell and Faith access to him with Ser Strong, convincing anyone of anything is irrelevant. No doubt she will use his blind willingness to sign any document to get herself into place to stage her little coup.

After that, I suspect we will see something akin to the Secret Siege. In 135 Peake controlled most of KL, but Viserys and Aegon had the Holdfast, and they had Sandoq the Shadow.

Nobody gives shit about Tommen. If Cersei were to get to Tommen to stamp some documents, Mace and his men would just ignore them, like Cersei ignored Robert's last will. They have the power now, not some puppet king and his whore mother.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Yes, but many people’s opinions tend to change when austerity is imposed on them and everything that gave them joy is taken away, while a large percentage of them lose their livelihoods. We already know what an enormous industry whoring is in KL. And that is not even the only entertainment the zealots have been shutting down or the only practitioners put out of work. The level of fed-up-ness goes up by the hour.

Give examples for this.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

I am very uncertain about Margaery’s fate, but I do know the feud between Dorne and the Reach is bitter, old, and endless. We already saw them fighting each other all over the city when the Dornish were visiting for the wedding. So I don’t know what moves the Sand Snakes will make, I just know that the story requires an end to the union of Tommen and Margaery, and that the Sand Snakes will play some part in that. I also think that Dorne, for the moment, is not interested in simply murdering Tommen, though we know that is not beyond them eventually.

That is just pulling stuff out of your ass. Yeah, there is some bad blood there, but nothing indicating that anyone wants to murder Margaery. If anything, the Tyrells might want to kill some Sand Snakes due to what Oberyn did to Willas.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

That is not going to happen. She did not have enough freedom when Kevan was murdered to be pinned with the blame no matter how much they might want to blame her. And she has Ser Strong around to make sure noone can arrest her or force her to comply with any trial.

Nobody could stop them, if they wanted to do just that, because they are in charge. Just like Cersei was, when she arrested Tyrion.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Exactly. She is a vicious cornered rat ATM and will do anything. She no longer has any reason to care in the slightest what people think of her because they already think the worst. That, for someone like her, is very liberating. Not pretense. Only brutality.

That is a wrong characterization at the moment. She still has a lot to lose. (Access to) her two children. While Tommen and Myrcella yet live, she won't turn into a loose cannon. That she restrains herself we could already see in the Epilogue.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Sure she can:

Tyrell armies are leaving for Storm's end, so not a threat. She has in her service a monstrous brute who can't be killed by normal methods. She knows about all the hidden passages of the Red Keep from the Tyrion search, and about Aerys's hidden wildfire caches from her previous exploration in defense of KL.

Some part of the Tyrell armies will eventually leave for the Stormlands. But it is ludicrous to assume all of the men will go as the Golden Company are only 10,000 men united (and Aegon has right now barely more than half of that) and Mace Tyrell would like to maintain order in the city and sure his position at court would not be challenged in his absence.

It is also equally clear that every unaffiliated people in the city will fall over themselves to attach themselves to the Tyrells. They have the power now, while Cersei is the whore queen who was hounded through the streets. No self-respecting person would like to be seen with her now.

Cersei has no clue about the hidden tunnels as she only searched the Tower of the Hand which is now gone.

Whatever wildfire caches were found were actually transported to the guildhall and thereafter to the ships for Tyrion's river trap. They are gone now. Whatever wildfire remains is still hidden and not at prominent places in the city as folks already found hidden wildfire both beneath the Dragonpit and the Great Sept.

To find more old wildfire Cersei would need men she didn't have and time she didn't have and the means to have her men do clandestine searches of the cellars of the city. She can't. Not to mention that Wisdom Hallyne has literally no reason to actually provide her with the means to burn down the city the alchemists live in. Cersei is not the Mad King. She doesn't rule.

Ser Robert Strong is certainly a factor to consider, but he can't murder openly or even clandestinely and the Tyrell men then just accept Cersei as the new ruler if Mace, Margaery, and Randyll all died violent deaths. That can't work in a society of actual people.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

And not everyone loves religious fanatics. She is now potentially a magnet for others who are unimpressed with their treatment by the Faith, while at the same time being someone the Faith think they have subdued. The Faith thinks as you do. They underestimate her and that is hubris.

So far there is no indication that anyone in KL hates the sparrows and the Faith Militant more than Cersei. She and her house are very much unpopular in this city, due to recent history, unlike Queen Margaery and her family.

The sparrows actually enjoy a sound support basis among the common people and also among some of the nobility (Cersei's own cousin among them). This is how and why they could turn their leader into the new High Septon.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

She has Qyburn and the spy network, a monster who can't be killed and is utterly devoted to serving her, and will collect any and all enemies of the religious fanatics. With Kevan gone, she has noone to dispute her authority over Westerlands forces, and the Tyrell armies are leaving.

Qyburn doesn't really have much a spy network on his own ... but even if he had - knowing stuff is not going to make Cersei's enemies go away and restore her to power.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Randyll and Mace will be gone shorrly. They have both the Golden Company and the Ironborn to contend with. Possibly Dorne as well. And Margaery will probably die because of the Sand Snakes, making Cersei's hands appear clean.

If you reread the books then the Ironborn threat is for Willas and Garlan to take care of. They have known about the fall of the Shield Islands for months, yet Mace and Randyll and Mathis didn't move a finger to deal with that. Mace continued the siege of Storm's End, and Randyll remained at Maidenpool (until Margaery was arrested).

There is not the slightest indication that Mace and Randyll will suddenly decide to send their men (lacking ships) down south to deal with Ironborn they can't reach and risk losing their hold in the capital.

There is not the slightest indication that Margaery would die 'because of the Sand Snakes' nor do the Sand Snakes have a motive to try to mess with or kill her. She is not their enemy. What the Sand Snakes would want to do is to ruin and destroy Tywin's daughter, especially once they figured out that the bitch queen turned the killer of their father into an undead monstrosity. Which is something Lady Nym should realize in about five minutes after she arrives at court.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Where will these Tyrell men come from if they are off fighting in the Reach and the Stormlands?

They won't all leave.

More importantly, though, the matter of the regency will be decided right now, when Kevan's corpse is discovered. Just as Mace Tyrell, the Hand, will decide who the Iron Throne is going to blame or accuse of the double murder. And their obvious scapegoat will be Cersei herself. Nobody is going to stop them from arresting her and accusing her of arranging the murders of Pycelle and Kevan, just as nobody saved Tyrion from getting arrested for Joffrey's murder.

If Cersei had weeks and months of freedom of the castle (she is already under house arrest) to reconnect with folks back home and trusted lieutenants to raise more armies she could eventually seize power again. But she won't get either.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

You assume first of all that Kingslanders are thrilled to be governed by religious fanatics and will not riot, and second, that Cersei will entirely lack her own moves. But surrounded by enemies, she will probably indeed evacuate and then burn her enemies. She does not care one ounce about the lives of the people of KL who saw her naked and threw chamber pot contents at her. Burn them all.

She can't 'burn the all'. She doesn't have the wildfire and even if she did - the city won't burn now that it is snowing. Reread the Epilogue.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Or, she will find a way to burn her remaining enemies in KL more selectively, and once that is done, call the Western armies back to KL. With the Reach armies defending the Reach and the Faith Millitant mostly burned, noone will stop them coming.

Nobody is going the Faith Militant - and even if that happened. There are tens of thousands of sparrows in the city. They are a mass movement which is going nowhere.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Her father's bannermen were loyal to her father, not her. Of course she is deluded by the idea Aurane and Taena etc are loyal to her, but the point is that she thought they were. She resents nothing more that the thumb her father held her down with, and so of course would not be promoting his people, particularly if they could then have more influence than her over Tommen.

As Cersei is the legal heir of her lord father and now Lady of Casterly Rock her father's bannermen are hers now. It makes some sense that she distrusts Jaime and Kevan, but there it makes literally no sense that she wouldn't staff her court and council with Westermen she either trusts or wants to bind to herself.

That is ... unless George wants to keep the Westermen out of the game until they are needed later on.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

But now all the Westerners are headed to a safe stronghold in the West. All she needs to do is go there as well, with her little King. Or, if she manages to deal with the Faith without destroying KL, she will call back the Western armies to entirely control the capital.

She might try that. But without an army she cannot possibly cross the Riverlands ... and she doesn't have an army. Not to mention she would have been quickly captured by the Tyrells if she were to run away with Tommen. Her only chance to flee is by ship.

And the notion that Cersei of all people could actually disguise herself properly or flee with no or only a very small retinue is pretty ludicrous. She once disguised herself as Jaime and she could pretend to be a serving girl while visiting Jaime in secret ... but she could not possibly travel the countryside without giving herself away immediately.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

With Strong by her side, and acting as conduit to Tommen she will finally be able to assert grudging authority over her father's people. Any anyone who rebels: well, she is quite likely to ally with Euron, so rebels will simply find their lands raided, women raped and stolen and castles burned by Ironborn.

To ally with Euron she has to search him out. And she could and would only do that once Tommen is gone as Euron wants Tommen's throne.

1 hour ago, SaffronLady said:

And who among "Tommen's people" distrust, fight and kill (by the hands of others) more than his own darling mother? I agree with your line of reasoning about Varys' goals, I just don't think Cersei returning to power conflicts with that.

Of course it does.

What you mean is that the double murder will, as Varys predicts in the Epilogue, lead to further distrust, infighting, and killings ... but Cersei simply cannot be the person or faction who profits from that by regaining power.

Because, again, she lacks the support, resources, and manpower to do it.

Whatever she does cannot result in her regaining power. If she were to kill Mace/Margaery/Randyll she would be arrested by the Tyrell men in the castle. If she magically could kill them, too, then the tens of thousands of Tyrell men would just storm the castle and put her down. If she could magically make them disappear into thin air, the High Septon would turn the Kingslanders against her and they would storm the castle and put her down. And so on and so forth.

There is no scenario imaginable in which Cersei could remove her (imaginary) enemies and convince the men serving them that she had nothing to do with that and would be the ideal person to be in charge again. And even if she could do that magically then the result would be that the Realm and large would immediately turn against her and Tommen, declaring for Aegon or another pretender.

That is also why literally nobody suggesting that Cersei could regain power ever came up with a plausible scenario how this might happen. People just go on and say Cersei will be in charge again, treating the politics in the setting as non-existent and the characters involved as mindless drones.

The only plausible scenario for her to gain power again is for her to leave KL, make a new alliance and/or raise another army in the West. And there are very plausible scenarios for both. There is subtle foreshadowing for the Euron alliance, and AFfC includes lines that indicate that Cersei and Tommen are genuinely loved by the rank-and-file of the Westermen. They didn't see her being paraded naked through the streets, and if they hear about that (best from Cersei's own lips after her return to Casterly Rock), if Cersei presents herself as a poor and helpless widow in distress, if she were to only get back home after the deaths of not just Joffrey but also Tommen and/or Myrcella ... then this would have a lot of potential to motivate the Westermen to take up arms again on her behalf. She is their rightful liege lady right now.

If you look at AFfC it is also obviously a deliberate choice on George's part to not only have Cersei send the Westermen back home (to weaken Cersei/Tommen and make Aegon's rise easier and plausible) but also to have literally no Westermen but Ser Harys Swyft on the Small Council. Realistically Cersei should have staffed the council with her own lords bannermen in the wake of her father's death. Instead of Merryweather, Rosby, Qyburn, and the ridiculous Aurane Waters there should have been Marbrands, Presters, Crakehalls, Farmans, etc.

It just makes no sense that she would favor morons from the Reach and Crownlands over men sworn to her as Lady of Casterly Rock. But plot-wise it makes a lot of sense ... because George wants the West out of the picture for the time being until Cersei uses them after she has to leave KL.

17 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

Tywin is the only Lannister people feared, but he's dead.

Cersei is just a joke compared to him.

While I'm fully behind that statement, I actually do think Cersei has the potential to become a truly feared figure if she successfully teams up with Euron. They could do such wonderfully terrible things together. And just think how much Qyburn and Euron could learn from each other!

Once her children are gone Cersei is going to want to see the world burn. And she will acquire the means to do that. Not just puny KL (which was never her city, anyway) but Westeros.

The people who assume or insist that Cersei's future is in KL lack the fantasy/imagination what she could accomplish if she teamed up with Euron and really unleashed the resources of Casterly Rock in the West.

6 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

As I said: Daenaerys will need a fleet, even if she sends Dothraki through the Dothraki Sea.

Sure, but she will get multiple fleets in any case.

6 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

It is true that they don't understand the danger, but for the nth time, Westerosi soldiers are not just conscripted peasants. Even if they are, they do not behave the way conscripted peasants should. These are, effectively, professional soldiers.

LOL, I'm sure they are well prepared to fight undead hordes in light of their 'professionalism'. But I didn't want to trigger you there, I just wanted to point out the economic basics of Westerosi society and its 'military'.

Ser Waymar Royce was trained as a professional and he held his ground against one Other. Gared, who was an actual professional soldier, broke and run and 99 of 100 'soldiers' should follow his example once they actually see that wights and ice demons are real and the Wall is no more.

6 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Yes, that would be a realistic ending. Realistic ending for every single winter Westeros goes through, that is - nothing to do with the Others.

Nah, this time winter will be full of monsters and should also come with a night that never ends.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

I am not inventing anything, you just have no clue about logistics.

Taking a group of slaves across the Dothraki Sea can be done if slaves are not too numerous. They will just live off the Dothraki's own logistics.

Taking entire population of a city is something else entirely. As is taking an actual army.

Drogo enslaves an entire khalasar in AGoT plus the Lhazareen that khalasar had just attacked. Those might easily enough be more people than the population of an entire city.

Not to mention that nobody has actually suggested that the Slaver's Bay folks would go west through the Dothraki Sea. That would be for the Dothraki.

But to be sure - we talk only about tens of thousands of people there, not all that many. There aren't millions of Meereenese. And some might choose to stay behind or move only to Volantis (which might turn into a paradise once the slaver parasites are all put down and the wealth is divided among the free people).

You also have to consider that the Dothraki magically survive the winter in their sea. The grass is dying already, so winter seems to not exactly support the nomad lifestyle anymore. No idea how they do it ... but not my job to explain it.

Bottom line remains - if George wants to move people from point A to point B it will happen. And if not, then not. But then he won't explain something not happening by way of it being logistically impossible ... as he just doesn't care about that.

Logistics wasn't even the real issue Dany didn't leave Meereen - she wanted to stay and she could have gotten the ships she needed if she had wanted to. From Xaro and the Yunkai'i if need be.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

How large deserts and how large groups?

Dany's pitiful group of people in ACoK.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

And sure, Martin can fart out magic pixie dust and have Daenaerys take entire population of Essos with her. But that would mean that story and Martin himself have taken leave of their senses, and that literally anything goes.

Nobody said something as ridiculous as that. 

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

You do that, you might as well have an army of pink unicorns descend from the heavens to wipe out the Others. There, problem solved, now everybody can live happily ever after!

LOL, honestly, that would make more sense that a bunch of feudal assheads and fake medieval peasants do that job. They just keep showing that they don't even understand the danger, and that any of their levies have the stamina or the ability to stand against a zombie army - much less ice demons and ice spiders and whatever else the Others have in store - is ludicrous.

At best a realistic ending of the book series would see a pitiful band of survivors flee to the Summer Isle to hope they can live for a time there and die of old age before all world freezes over and dies a shivering death.

42 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Dothraki survive because they are nomads, with all that implies: small population, high mobility, and massive amounts of cattle (even if we only see horses).

But for people of Meereen etc. to survive the trek through the Dothraki Sea, hell for her armies to survive the trek, Daenaerys would have to spend decades turning her people into horse nomads before she can even think of travelling through the Sea.

That strikes me as you inventing things you would like to be true. The Dothraki do can take other people with them and feed them, they do that all the time when they capture slaves.

Not to mention we see large groups of people cross deserts in this world without having any preparation for that at all. It will happen if the plot demands it. And things like that would happen offscreen anyway, like the Golden Company's journey to Westeros.

But as I said already - with Volantis about to fall to slave revolution Dany might end up controlling thousands of ships in addition to the Volantene fleet that will defect to her. If there is a slave revolution in Volantis it will be done in Dany's name as the Widow of the Waterfront already indicated.

And with three dragonriders claiming their dragons soon they will have the logistics to coordinate long journeys on land and sea. Dany and the others can fly from group to group in a row, checking on things on a weekly basis, say, allowing them to send help or prepare things for the arrival people, etc.

2 hours ago, Hippocras said:

It is not about magic wands. It is about fear. Her shame and humiliation mean absolutely nothing if people are terrified. So I insist. You underestimate her.

Nobody is afraid of Cersei. People were never terrified of her ... and now the walk has turned her into a laughingstock.

She could seize power again if she had an army in the city and they were beholden to her (and not, you know, mocking her because of her sagging tits, stretch marks, and the shit she was covered in when she reached the castle) ... but there is none there.

It is also quite silly to repeat I was underestimating Cersei. She could be as cunning and subtle as Littlefinger and Varys ... without an army she has no way of seizing power now. Nor can she manipulate the people in charge to grant her a seat at the table as they all hate her. She has no friends left at her son's court.

What we can, perhaps, assume is that Cersei is going to leave the capital with a boom. There could be assassinations or assassination attempts. But she can't seize power from her current position.

14 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

To paraphrase the actual Lord Varys, "the good queen's work must not be undone", and what better way to make sure of that than let her come back into power.

That is a common misconception. Varys liked what Cersei did as Queen Regent - ruining Tommen's government and slowly destroying the Lannister-Tyrell alliance. But she doesn't want her or anyone decisive in control now that Aegon is out in the open with a target on his back.

Now it is crucial that Tommen's people distrust, fight and kill each other, preventing them from mounting a decisive attack against Aegon. That is what Varys tells the dying Kevan. It is why he murdered Pycelle and Kevan the way he did. This whole thing won't lead to Cersei regaining power.

15 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

There is no food in the dothraki sea, so the same issues would arise. Any large group would starve, especially one walking with women and children and camp followers. So take the more direct road and starve or the less direct path and starve.

How do the Dothraki then survive in the Dothraki Sea?

15 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Again the biggest issues are the existing boats already have a full complement and the ships in the harbor you're mentioning are thousands of miles (leagues?) away. We know exactly what happens with large fleets when they cross the narrow sea and sail from Westeros to Slaver's Bay

You presuppose that all people are going to want to accompany Daenerys and/or that she wants to take all her people with her when she leaves. And as the Golden Company example shows - not all ships are necessarily full. It is, for instance, a presupposition that all the Volantene ships on their way to Meereen are full now.

Also, of course, Slaver's Bay-Meereen could be done by way of the same ships going back and forth multiple times. In Volantis more ships could be captured once the slaves have taken over the city, meaning Dany's armada could triple or quadruple in size in just a day or so.

I made it clear earlier that Dany's biggest advantage once she takes over the Dothraki is that people will know how many men she controls, how many armies she could throw against them if she wants to. That has an effect on the decisions of her (potential) enemies. People should behave like the many Hellenistic kings did when Rome was on the rise ... suck up to any Roman general they meet since you don't want to provoke the wrath of Rome. They don't have to march all their legions in your land to make you submit. It is enough to know that they could.

It is therefore irrelevant if she goes to Westeros only with 10,000 or 100,000 or a million men ... because the lords she will meet there will know how powerful she is, how many men will come after her vanguard.

19 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I firmly disagree BTW with your often stated belief that Cersei has been rendered powerless. It is temporary, and you underestimate her. Your dismissal of her colours all of your predictions but I believe it is a serious misjudgement on your part. She WILL get out from under the thumb of the High Sparrow, and she WILL find ways to enforce her wishes.

Nah, this is a world where politics is depicted realistically. Cersei is not just a woman - who shouldn't wield any real power in this patriarchal society, anyway - but an aging woman who has been stripped naked and publicly humiliated. If magic wands were to decide politics in this world then Cersei could make her shame and humiliation go away.

But she cannot do that in Westeros.

More importantly, though, she doesn't even have the men she would need to seize power again. Reread AFfC. George had her deliberately disband the armies of the West, sending them back home. In KL there are right now 30,000-40,000 Reach men (half of the original Reach force that marched with Renly - the other half went back home with Garlan, Alerie, and Olenna). House Lannister only has a couple of hundred household guards ... and the City Watch is under the command of one Ser Humfrey Waters, a man whose name Cersei didn't even know when Qyburn mentioned him.

In addition, half the city is effectively under the control of the Faith Militant - a faction that would also oppose Cersei's return to power.

On the Small Council the last Lannister crony is Harys Swyft, and he is about to leave for Braavos. Pycelle is dead, Kevan is dead, and Qyburn has been dismissed from the council. Nobody would vote or even consider to restore the regency to Cersei.

Cersei does have a mild potential to stage assassinations ... under the assumption that Qyburn and his instrument Ser Robert Strong remain loyal to her (which isn't a given as Qyburn just needs somebody to sponsor his experiments). But it is obvious what would happen if Cersei were to have Ser Robert murder Mace, Margaery and/or Randyll - the Reach men in the city would not just accept that nor fall in line behind her. They would storm the castle and kill her or they would simply abandon King Tommen and his mother.

There is just no way for her to seize power again on her own. In the long(er) run there is a chance for her to get back into power if she (1) strikes alliances with other powerful factions (Euron), and/or (2) raises another army of Westermen. But to do either or both she does have to leave KL (and return to Casterly Rock).

19 hours ago, Hippocras said:

It does say in Arianne 2 WoW that Trystane stayed home, sorry. Don’t think it changes the picture much though. Trystane will die or his betrothal will be broken.

No need for Trystane to die. And the betrothal doesn't have to be broken, either. That is only for a scenario where Myrcella marries before her death. But it could also just be formally dissolved.

I do think, though, that there is a chance that both Doran and Trystane might die soon as I think that Euron's reaction to Aegon's proclamation and his subsequent alliance with Arianne and Dorne will either be a daring raid on the Water Gardens or even a successful sack/burning of the shadow city and Sunspear. He does have the men and means for that, and Sunspear/the Water Gardens are defenseless against attacks from the sea.

Euron is after the Iron Throne, so once he learns that there is another serious pretender he and his allies will become his next targets.

42 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Now do the Iron Fleet, crewed by the best sailors on the planet, and their trip to Mereen. Dany won't have the boats to move all her armies, let alone her followers, and we know how the march west from Mereen goes:

It was possible to go overland to Meereen, that much was true. The old Valyrian roads would take them there. Dragon roads, men called the great stone roadways of the Freehold, but the one that ran eastward from Volantis to Meereen had earned a more sinister name: the demon road.

"The demon road is dangerous, and too slow," Quentyn said. 

 

"The demon road, they call it now," said Mollono Yos Dob. The plump commander of the Stalwart Shields looked more like a scribe than a soldier, with his inky hands and heavy paunch, but he was as clever as they came. "Many and more of us would die."

 

"The demon road is death. We will lose half the company to desertion if we attempt that march, and bury half of those who remain beside the road. It grieves me to say it, but Magister Illyrio and his friends may have been unwise to put so much hope on this child queen."

The demon road is merely the direct way west. Once Dany has the Dothraki she would move them (and perhaps others) west overland through the Dothraki Sea and then by ways of Pentos and Myr to Westeros.

Also and again - if merchant ships moored in the harbor of Volantis can move 10,000 Golden Company to Westeros without breaking a sweat then logistics are not really a problem. After all, there would have been lots of sailors on the ships carrying the Golden Company, too - and George didn't even bother depicting that.

On 1/10/2024 at 7:54 PM, Gilbert Green said:

The Hand of the King is the King's agent.  LOL all you want.

I do it just now, lol. The Hand is the highest royal official and the lieutenant of the king in his absence and incapacitation. In now treatise on statecraft and law would such a person be described as an 'agent'. It is like saying the British Prime Minister is an agent of the king. 

On 1/10/2024 at 7:54 PM, Gilbert Green said:

Arianne was asked to act on Doran's behalf, not on her own behalf.  There's a difference.

Not in a hereditary monarchy. Both Doran and Arianne act in the best interest of House Martell and Dorne. Arianne is the future of both, and Doran maintains and preserves his house's power as well as the integrity of the state of Dorne for his heir.

Arianne is sent to Aegon because the Prince of Dorne feels his daughter, heir, and successor has to make such a crucial call.

13 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Yes, I tend to agree. If she just gets back to KL without incident and then succeeds Tommen it is a lot of wasted potential drama and just feels extra. So this scenario is the least likely.

In part it would depend on when exactly Tommen were to die and how. If there is still a lot of plot going on between Tommen's death and Aegon's rise then it could make sense to have Myrcella as a queen in-between.

13 hours ago, Hippocras said:

For GRRM I think the real drama would come from forcing Cersei to choose between her daughter and her son. If Myrcella joins Aegon’s cause, willingly or otherwise, then Cersei will choose Tommen because he is the one who is with her and who she can control, and that will both break her heart and fully expose her as the power hungry manipulator she is.

Don't think that is an issue at all. Not only is Cersei not in charge of things, but Tommen is the crowned king. Whatever Myrcella does or is forced to do would not change who Cersei - or anyone running the show at Tommen's court - views as the king.

13 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Which means of course that either Myrcella’s betrothal to Trystane will be broken, or he will die during capture. But if the Golden Company is responsible for Trystane’s death it is hard to see Dorne then becoming Aegon’s ally. A bit of a puzzle. Who captures Myrcella and how is Trystane disposed of.

Here you seem unintentionally confused. Doran knows that Cersei wanted to murder Trystane on the way to KL which is why he decided to only sent Myrcella back to KL. Trystane is safe and sound with Doran in Sunspear.

The Golden Company and Aegon wouldn't care about Myrcella's betrothal to Trystane if they felt that her claim could strengthen Aegon's. And that call would then likely be made before a pact with Arianne is made ... and not play a big role in that context.

34 minutes ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

Nope. Payne was there. The Red keep was Jonestown if it wasn't for Renley's Ghost.

For the point when there was the decision between death and Stannis' mercy. That you want to go on your own terms then is more than understandable. Cersei even told Sansa she would plead with any other man but Stannis for terms and stuff ... but she knew that she could not expect mercy from Stannis for her herself or her children. And I think she is completely on point there.

Not sure how quickly the castle would surrender if the city were to fall. But I think some days or longer they could have held out precisely because the people at court knew that Stannis knows no mercy.

1 hour ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

Sillier than dreams or empty words? We have to use something. I tend to judge people more on what they do than what they say.  

Cersei doesn't have to prove she loves her children. We know that she does. What we can discuss is if her actions properly or adequately express her love. 

6 minutes ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

No need to apologize. Yes I am, we all are. Yes, I wouldn't be where I am today without the sacrifices my parents made on my behalf. I am not going to list here the sacrifices I've made during my daughter's life on her behalf. She's my daughter and I don't count the cost, but denying that sacrifices were made... who are you, her mom's lawyer?

The point I was trying to make is that it is silly to measure love by way of 'sacrifices'. You also only have to sacrifice something if you are not rich or wealthy enough to live the life you want to with your family and loved ones. But we wouldn't say rich people can't love (their children) because they never or rarely have to sacrifice stuff.

6 minutes ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

No. This is narcisism. Love engenders strength not fear. This a perfect example of Cersei demonstrating that Joffrey's personhood is secondary to her own. She wanted her things around her when she died. If the whole thing was 'Get Joffrey out of the capital', then at least an argument that she was acting in the interest of his safety could be made. She wanted him  back in her death chamber though. He wasn't going to survive the battle if she didn't.

I'm not contradicting that it might be a more adult form of love to build strength and independence in children of a certain age. But that doesn't mean it is not love if you dote on your child and want to protect them.

Also, the Red Keep wasn't a death trap. If KL were to fall then the castle could hold out some time still, perhaps even days or weeks, prolonging Joff's life. Not to mention that there are secret tunnels in the Red Keep allowing them to try to escape if push came to shove.

The problem with recalling Joff was that it was bad for the morale of the loyalist troops in the city ... but using Joff in that capacity was already endangering his person.

The comparison there is way off, for obvious reasons.

There are some parallels in the sense that both women are actually quite ambitious and knowingly put their children into danger (Cat sends Ned and the girls down south, insist that he does that, and fuels his own doubts/paranoia about the Lannisters), but Catelyn certainly does care for her children in a different and more affectionate way than Cersei.

She is also a much more empathetic person in general, overcoming her own grief and desire for vengeance for the sake of peace and reconciliation ... something Cersei will never even contemplate doing.

Both women also driven to do stupid things out of love for the children. Cersei has her own brother arrested because she thinks he killed Joffrey, Catelyn actually frees Jaime and wants to exchange him against her two daughters (one of which they never heard anything about) when the chances for this are very low, especially without a proper and formal agreement.

But it is silly to declare that Cersei doesn't love her children or that conditional love is somehow evil in and of itself. Cersei is a flawed parent, but much better than Robert or Jaime (who is not only a shitty father but also the worst uncle in the entire series).

On 1/9/2024 at 12:32 AM, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

What I would recognize would be an actual sacrifice where Cersei put her children before herself. All you've show are words and dreams and an attempt to ruin her son's marriage to save her own political fortunes. Sure, she tells herself that she did it out of love for Tommen, but would even Tommen believe that? If she loved Tommen she would get her disgraced self out of the capital and give him and his council a chance to escape her crippling shadow. That was never in the cards though, instead she coopted a spot in his bodyguard for a zombie to try and fool the Seven.

Sorry, but, what is that about? Are you some kind of love measurement device? Did your own parents' love for you involve some kind of sacrifice? Are you willing to sacrifice something to prove to your children or loved ones that you love them?

Tommen is not safe with his council nor with the Tyrells. Those assheads murdered Joffrey so Margaery could marry him. If Tommen ever found out about it, this would cause him to actually avenge his elder brother and king. He would be honor-bound to do it. At best we can expect that Tommen would be safe until he finally knocked up and impregnated Margaery (a couple of times) - something Olenna actually wanted to speed up by suggesting that the married couple sleep together. Then they could get rid of him, too, and take over throne and government completely while ensuring that nobody is ever going to punish them for their regicide.

We can discuss if Cersei is the ideal regent for Tommen ... but that is a different issue from whether it is her right (and perhaps even her duty) to take care of the interests of her minor child while said child is still a minor. In that sense Cersei is not all that different from Lysa Arryn - who is also not exactly an ideal regent for her son but who definitely loves him and his best interests at heart.

In context we can also say that the danger for Tommen increases as his government is dominated more and more by people who are ever more distant relations and in-laws. Kevan would have done his duty, but he actually allowed that Tommen's own mother was paraded naked through the streets of Tommen's capital city. If my grand-uncle did that to my mother I knew what said grand-uncle could expect of me when I came of age. And the Tyrells are much worse, for obvious reasons.

On 1/9/2024 at 12:32 AM, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

When she could have shown Joffrey she loved him she showed the jealous, possessive emotions controlling her by having him recalled to Maegor's Holdfast so he could be there to die beside her in defeat. Jim Jones loved like that.

That is clearly an expression of love and it also puts Joff's well-being and needs before the well-being of the public or even the Crown. If you want to measure love that's a stronger sign than deliberately putting a minor in danger less he loses face with his subjects. In that sense you more care about your child as a monarch or leader and less about them as a person.

Cersei shows there that she is a poor Queen Regent but not exactly a bad mother.

Cat allowed Robb to personally lead his armies despite the fact that he had no right to call the banners nor the right to actually lead an army as a minor. His excuse that 'nobody else was there' made no sense as both he and Cat knew when he made them. Allowing Robb to continue at this blew up his ego and confidence and caused him to make crucial mistakes. Mistakes that wouldn't have been made had Cat actually continued to act as regent in Ned's absence (and then also as regent for Robb after Ned had been killed). Allowing Robb to much free rein so early allowed him to acquire too much authority too early, resulting first in his silly coronation and then in him ignoring his mother's advice and sending her from his side.

There Cat gives in to the feudal values rather than actually doing the smart thing.

6 hours ago, SeanF said:

It goes without saying that what constitutes a war crime in the modern Western world would not necessarily amount to one in Westeros, but I do think the concept of war crimes does exist. I would suggest these would be:-

Breach of guest-right

Breach of guest right is something that is a huge sin in any case, independent of the question if there is a war going on or not. We could even say that guests and hosts usually are not at war, else they would not be visiting each other. In a war scenario we would more have a scenario where people breach the peace at a negotiation meeting. A most heinous crime there would have been the murder of the Young Dragon under a flag of truce. Although not breaking of guest right as a guest-host situation means you visit somebody at his home.

6 hours ago, SeanF said:

Murder of prisoners whose surrender has been accepted by a commander

Yes, we get that by the butchering of Peakes at the hands of the Red Lion in the wake of the fall of Starpike.

We can also assume that commoners and thugs murdering highborn knights rather than taking them prisoner and ransoming them would be breach of 'normal conduct'. I assume some liege lord, prince, Hand, or king summarily sentencing captured highborn prisoners to death because they rebelled against him is accepted (e.g. Bloodraven executing lords in the wake of Whitewalls).

6 hours ago, SeanF said:

Torture as a form of recreation

Definitely.

6 hours ago, SeanF said:

Rape

In the eyes of some generals only, I'd assume. Definitely if we talk the spoiling of highborn maidens and wives.

6 hours ago, SeanF said:

Sacking a town that has surrendered, on terms.
Violation of the terms of surrender.

Yes, that, too.

I'd also say that just sacking a town or city that offered to surrender if there is really no need to sack it. That is why I think the Sacks of Bitterbridge and, especially, Tumbleton during the Dance are not exactly 'war business as usual'.

5 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

Does breaking the King's Peace count as a war crime, or a crime of making war?

That means you are an enemy of the Crown, can be declared an outlaw, be attainted and destroyed, etc. But it wouldn't be a war crime as such. War crimes are things that aren't even permitted in war.