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The Sleeper

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  1. Roose spent a lot time on the road and Ramsay spent a considerable amount of time as a captive and then I doubt that Luwin would send ravens on his behalf to Roose. They would have had trouble keeping track of each other, let alone send ravens and wait for replies. The issue with the any preconceived plan of supplanting the Starks is that it is almost impossible without the fall of Winterfell and the apparent deaths of Bran and Rickon, which could not have been anticipated. There is also another issue. Until Moat Cailin Roose would not have known that he was to be a commander and therefore have any freedom of movement. It was almost a year until Robb saw Roose in person again and then Roose blamed the debacle of Duskendale on Robett Glover. Roose probably spun the tale about the Green Fork however he wished. This is a good juxtaposition with Robb's reaction to Edmure. There is key difference, however. Roose's defeat, even though unnecessary, did serve its purpose in Robb's plan. On the other hand Edmure's victory completely derailed it. There is also the issue of what he was instructed to accomplish. It loos like initially Robb did not mind a confrontation, but then thought better of it as seen through his choice of commanders. I think that commanders are to meant to have a free rein in order to allow for adaptability in the face of lack of communication. His objectives were twofold in terms of Robb’s campaign. Keep Tywin busy long enough while also securing the route to the North. The battle did waste Tywin's time, while his own troops retreated in good order having two strong defensive positions to fall back to. So in a sense he accomplished both objectives. While he managed to get Manderly, Karstark and Hornwood captured or killed, this would not have been decisive as their fathers and brothers were with Robb. Their deaths however would allow him easier control of their own troops. Losing the battle so badly, does nothing for him. Outright betrayal, in the form of contacting either Tywin or Jaime would have been relatively simple, but gained him little. On the other hand the more damage he inflicted on Tywin the more he would have raised his stock among the North men and the better his negotiating position with Tywin. In short, I think he was playing it safe, hedging his bets and creating options for himself rather than having committed to a specific sort of action. Trying to juggle all these balls he botched the actual battle.
  2. As pointed out, communication and coordination between them is impossible. Also, the lynchpin of the meteoric rise of house Bolton was Theon's capture of Winterfell, which neither of them could have predicted. These facts preclude any pre established plan. However, both Roose and Ramsay, exhibit a similar streak of opportunism, which allowed them to play off eachother in remarkably complimentary ways. Ramsay is uneducated and unstable, but is actually quite clever and this translates to him being very good at thinking on his feet, while displaying poor judgement in the long-term. He also seems to have a knack for manipulating people, by enabling the worst in them. Roose's preoccupation with his leaches, eating plums and various remarks he has made about taboos leads me to be believe that he is quite superstious and genuinely considers it taboo to have his son killed. Not that he has feelings about it, but see these as rules that has to follow, in order to avoid being cursed while simultaneously believing that he can apply loopholes in them. This could be the reason that he left Ramsay as his castelan; he expected that he would make trouble for his neighbours, whether Hornwoods, Karstraks or Umbers, resulting in him getting hanged, thus having the Starks getting rid of Ramsay for him. This could be the reasoning behind what he tells Theon, though, at least I part, he says what he says because he understands that Theon can't really help himself from repeating everything to Ramsay.
  3. Children appear to be named by their parents at birth. Since Rhaegar had already died when Jon was born, it is unlikely that he would have picked a name for him. If he had, it probably would have been Visenya.
  4. Lady Stoneheart is looking for Arya, she knows she was alive at least after the Twins, they should have reasonably tracked her and the Hound at least up to the Saltpans. They are gathering orphans at the inn, they went after the men that raided Saltpans and they questioned Merret Frey. All these point to an active search for Arya and ties in with Gendry being stationed at the Inn. He can recognise Arya by sight. Lady Stoneheart also has no reason to believe that Sansa is dead. I don't doubt she would be searching for her if she had any leads that she were within her reach. This ties with Jaime's fate. He still owes her two daughters and at the very least he will be useful as a hostage. If she can gain leverage over him, she will put him to work. I also think she would crown Arya if (when) she finds her. Other than that, their activities have not changed that much since Beric and the group has split is probably due to personal loyalties. After all, Ned Dayne was Beric's squire, he has no personal ties with Stoneheart. On the other hand, we have Harwin and Gendry who have ties to Arya and Stoneheart and let's not forget she is Tully and should command some loyalty from the Riverlanders. Thoros is a special case. For him it is a matter of both faith and honor. He would see her reanimation as R'hlor's will and the fact that Beric raised her due to his promise to Arya as further impetus to see this through. There is still a lot of meat in this story.
  5. No one trusts Roose Bolton, even in the part you are quoting it says that Jon can't trust Roose Bolton. Yet still, people have to deal with him because: He has a large army He is, at least according to the Iron Throne, the Warden of the North, for whatever that's worth. Which means, that out of all the factions close to him, this is the only one that can help him substantially in his task which is defending the Wall, as they have both manpower and resources, which both Stannis and the wildlings lack, being as much of a burden to Jon as help. Besides, having claimed the title of warden it is kind of Roose's job. Whether something like that would have worked and how is subject of speculation I don't want to get into and Jon could very easily have gotten himself killed trying secure help from Roose, but the point is he doesn't even consider the most viable option.
  6. The expedient thing for Jon to have done would have been to ask Roose for help in exchange for Stannis's head and his silence regarding Jeyne. Of course it would have been completely out of character for him to do so. He would have to watch out for his neck the whole time, but he could have gotten the Northern lords Roose wants to get rid off to help at the Wall. The reason that the Weeper, who is arguably as bad as the Boltons and Sigorn, who bears him a grudge due to his father's death exist is to highlight this blindspot of Jon's. Other than, what Jon did was to walk a tight rope between forces that would either annihilate the Watch or relegate it to irrelevance. After Mance's death the wildlings broke into several bands which could attack in mass in two locations which are 300 miles apart from each other and climb over the Wall anywhere across is length. This is not something he can deal with and eventually the Night's Watch would be overwhelmed and destroyed. So, taking them in was probably the only effective way to prevent that. At least, with Tormund's band. Whether it would have worked with the Weeper is debatable. As for Bowen & Co pretty much made all the arguments you are making. They didn't offer any alternative to hankering down and hoping for the best. The Mountain Clans wouldn't have time to gather for Mance and besides that they had the Ironborne to worry about who are bigger threats than the wildlings, nor would they know the dispositions of the various lords. Their best bet in defending their homelands would have been to stay on them. And ultimately the wildlings are people as well, more refugees than invaders. Fighting them to the death with no prospect of a positive outcome is pointless, nor should their lives matter less than the northerners'. I do agree with the second expedition to Hardhome and Jon wanting to attack the Boltons with a hope and a prayer being a pointless waste of lives.
  7. I agree about the cave network, though I think it is the other way around in terms of who will be using it to get around. After all the entrances to the caves in the hill where the children live are warded against the wights. Caves are after all much easier to guard and it will far less cold underground than it will be on the surface.
  8. It can if the enemy disperses in the woods, adopting guerilla tactics, while one is desperate to find his Reek and his bride.
  9. Some thoughts on the chapter. It occured to me that Aeron instead of dreaming could well be delirious; and that Euron is actually present talking to him. There is a vision of the ironborn ships broken and burning. That makes me think that whatever Euron is summoning is not going to discriminate between Redwyne's and Ironborn, I have little doubt that those on the front line of the battle, will be those who are less loyal to him and less inclined to ceaseless reaving. I think Euron is a true nihilist. He doesn't seem interested in conquering or ruling, at least not in the traditional sense. Everything he wins, he gives away and he leaves chaos in his wake. He doesn't care about preserving them the ironborn strength, he left the Shields to fall, despite being strategic and he sent away his strongest fighting force, the Iron Fleet.IWe know he never intended to stick around in the first place. I think his idea is to make Westeros into a larger version of the Basilisk Islands, or he really believes the world ia ending and this is his idea of a party. In that sense, the visions of him on the Iron Throne with the dwarves capering for his amusement, seems to me like a preview of the second dance, while Euron is left to run loose. Cersei by his side relishing the destruction, after she has lost her children and been ousted would fit. He has already done a lot of damage, his activities have been a major blow the stability of the Tyrell/Lannister alliance. I think Pree is the source of the spells and they have a weird alliance. Euron originally captured four warlocks, one became lunch and two are used as sacrifice. Which leaves one and that one is probably Pree. Who is probably the one who told him about Dany and her dragons in the first place. And then there the sphinxes. They are not exclusive to the Citadel. Two Valyrian sphinxes stand besides the doors of the small council chamber in King's Landing. That could of course note the Citadel's influence in politics. The Citadel itself could be said to represent knowledge, while the sphinxes themselves are by all acounts imaginary beings. The other reference is two Valyrian sphinxes with the bodies of dragons which Tyrion encounters. Tyrion and Illyrio called them king and queen. Valyria was of course not a monarchy, but they did rule and the means was sorcery. So the rather tenuous conclusion is that sphinxes might represent magical lore and those who possess it.
  10. @The Fattest LeechThe characterization doesn't add up. Melisandre is actually trying to save the world. Euron seems pretty ok with the idea of it ending. It's hard to see Melisandre enjoying chaos for the sake of it as Euron seems to be doing in the vision.
  11. They would be acknowledging their maternal lines and the maternal lines of their fathers who would be accounted as Freys as they themselves would. This would not be Harry's case as it was his maternal grandmother who was an Arryn. I confess I don't how heraldry is supposed to work. Under normal circumstances he would onle bare the Hardyng insignia. I assumed the moon and falcon was simply a way for him to announce "I'm the heir" through the sigil.
  12. I'm going to take your word about the shield. It doesn't look though as anyone remarking on it. And still his attitude to me doesn't strike me as someone who is preoccupied about marriage. I'm not contesting Sansa's importance in the story, but she's still one of many. Even with the other Starks, knowing that he betrayed their father, they didn't have any interactions with him so there wouldn't be much emotional resonance. The only other character that would care what happened to LF is Tyrion, but even he has moved on. LF's character is limited in scope without further intervention from Martin and therefore expendable.
  13. I don't believe that is the case. Regardless, if by hold you mean publically anounced, or that noone has challenged it that is ok. That noone has seen through it or that many someones did not I find a stretch. He's hardly the first to quarter his shield and he is of Arryn ancestry. It is the most prestigious of his blood, so it occupies the most. I don't see anything presumptous or bold about it. That would be the case if bor the moon and falcon solo. Also, he is not really hovering. Everyone pretty much expects him to be the lord of the Vale sooner or later. They are fawning over him, arranging tournaments for him to win etc.. Hardly the person who is hungry for status. And if he's been waiting for a prestigious for all his life why is he having his second bastard from a second girl and a lowborn one too? That is the subject for another thread but I disagree with that statement. The only characters who LF means anything to anymore are Lady Stoneheart and Sansa. To the rest he's barely a blip in the radar.
  14. @Colonel Green the five year gap was supposed to give the young characters time to age physically. It was never meant to materially alter the story. Regardless of the presence of the gap or no the circumstances of her sudden appearance in the Vale do not change. She came out of nowhere at the right time frame Sansa Stark disappeared from King's Landing. The people who would have figured it out at the time of her appearance. It would be even more likely that she would look more like a Tully at eighteen. I don't see him being more hungry for status than the next westerosi noble. The most I got from him is that he is indulged, pampered and spoiled. LF buying debt could be a pretext or his first unsuccessful effort to arrange the match or to exert control over Anya Waynwood. It still remains a fact that Anya Waynwood would be far more likely to be swayed if she knew Sansa's true identity whether LF told her or she figured it out on her own. Being the Tyrell's catspaw does not make him the grand villain of the story if they are is such a thing. I'm not saying that he will necessarily die now, but there is no particular need for him to stick around either. As a character he doesn't have anything to offer to the story. Powermongering is hardly unique and the role of the schemer with eyes to the throne is occupied by Varys. Any scheming he is like to do will affect the Vale and can be carried forth by Sansa. He is her demon and her mentor. She might deal with him now or along the way.
  15. It occurs to me that Euron may not know how the horn works or what he's doing. In the Dance chapter he mentions that Cragorn died out of nowhere. So, why not let the idiot brother play with it first?
  16. If the horn binds dragons to a bloodline, then that would work for Euron even if Victarion is the one blew or claimed it.
  17. Ok, lots and lots of setup. I think Sansa's days as Alayne are drawing to a close. There are too many holes in the story. There is the timing of Sansa's disappearance and Alayne's emergence, her being the right age, the fact that Lysa accepted her lover's bastard daughter into her household, he potential for people to ask around in Gulltown, LF fostered in Riverrun, the fact that the Vale was the most logical refuge for a fugitive Sansa and now she is at the Gates of the Moon where she can be observed freely. Hell, even LF could score points with many Vale lords for getting Ned's daughter out of the hands of the Lannisters. In fact, it looks to me like the easiest way for LF to arrange the match between Harry and Sansa would be to tell Lady Waynwood who she is. I don't think that there is anything is this chapter to contradict the Waynwoods knowing, either indepently or through LF. Every Waynwood so far in the books has been unfailingly courteous to Sansa, perhaps more than her station justifies. There is also the fact that Bronze Yohn allowed Harry to come and he has actually met Sansa. And then there is the line about Harry knowing who she is. As to his behavior, he may have been hung up on the girl Saffron and not more keen on the idea of marriage than Sansa was herself. As a result he is balking. Then later when Lady Waynwood reminds him what claims Sansa's blood brings he changes his attitude. Lyn Corbray has graduated from being LF's enemy to being his actual one. On one hand he's likely to continue doing what LF wanted him to do, but recompense and anyway doing a favor for Lyonel and probably that nameless merchant was more important and who was he going to tell anyway. I think that was LF's probable thinking. Lyn Corbray, however, has been repeatedly painted as a dangerous sociopath at the best of times, who is now frustrated, screwed and in need of cash. He's a loose cannon and he's probably going to do something really major. Shadrich the mouse is another Chekhov's gun. There is nothing to suggest and no need for him to be anything other than what he appears to be, a hunter on the trail. As he was introduced with the other two hedge knights it doesn't appear unlikely that they are two like minded fellows he met on the way. What he is looking for is a payday. Taking her to King's Landing is logistically extremely difficult, not to mention dangerous. If there have been any news from King's Landing, they'll know that neither Varys nor the Queen are in a position to pay them for anything. There is however a person on site who would be willing to pay handsomely for Sansa. That would be LF himself who has not been shy about displaying his wealth. One way to go about it would be blackmail but that carries the near certainty of getting his throat slit. The best way to go about it would be an abduction but not to King's Landing but to ransom her back to LF. Now this is something loose cannon Corbray could get on board. In such a scenario they could head towards the mountains to avoid getting caught straight away. Which would be a way to reintroduce Timmet the Heir. Other potential timebombs include Randa, Oswell whose three sons are probably being tortured right now and Lothor Brune who is increasingly trying to look more loyal to Sansa than to LF. On the big picture LF prospecting on food sounds is the big news of the chapter and highlights the Vale's future importance. On a last note, I don't think it is necessary for LF to continue breathing for long. He has played his part many times over and causing chaos is going to be redundant from now on as there is more than enough of it. Killing him would be an efficient way to kick Sansa center stage in an environment that is both challenging and presents opportunities.
  18. Sorry, I forgot the Rock. If he's married to the Lady of Storm's End and Casterly Rock, the Martels are set up to be one of the most powerfull houses of Westeros in the future.
  19. A few observations. The Faith has a vested interest in finding both Cersei and Margaery innocent. Margaery because she is popular and because if she is executed Mace and Tarly will butcher the HS and all his sparrows, which they are already inclined to do on general principle. Cersei because she passed the laws that allowed the Faith to rearm and because she has already been cowed. Mace is welded to Tommen, not glued. Particularly after Kevan's death, he is basically ruling the realm solo and he is doing it though Tommen. He will need to be forced to be abandon him. Tommen's rule either has to be on the verge of collapsing or to be offered more. He basically has everything, so it has to be the latter. The ideal situation for Dorne would be Aegon winning with Arianne as his queen and Cersei and Tommen dead, with Myrcela married to Trystane and getting Storm's End. They might just be able to pull it off. At the very least Aegon will need to marry Arianne, otherwise they gain nothing by helping him. I suspect the word Doran is waiting to commit his forces is not a message of Arianne's but news of her marriage to Aegon. It strikes me that there is very little mention of Margaery herself. If Mace might be unwilling to consider political ramifications and apply brute force, Margaery is not. We have seen her quietly playing her role impecably throughout Feast and building influence on her own. She insists on going through trial to clear her name and may be able to keep her father in line, like reminding him that they cannot afford to offend Dorne by denying Lady Nym her seat. The Tyrells have used as the blunt front to push their demands while the ladies take care of the subtleties. Quite possibly with Mace's complicity. There has yet to be a conflict in which the Tyrell's haven't come out unscathed or on top.
  20. @Missandei M Jon's chapter had to be included for dramatic effect. I mean it's pretty hardcore and it ended his arc with a bang. In Theon's chapter however we know that Theon is not heading for Castle Black so we'd have definite proof that somthing was wrong with the Pink Letter.
  21. As far as I am concerned the Pink Letter has been thoroughly explained by Buried Treasure. Ramsey has found out about the deception regarding Mance Rayder and believes that Jon is in possession of Jeyne Poole and Theon and thus is in a position to uncover the Bolton fraud in claiming Winterfell. Thus he is trying to force an exchange to maintain his secrets. Jon of course having not seen either Jeyne nor Reek, has no idea what Ramsay is talking about.
  22. I think that if he was near enough he would have tried to intercept her and take her and/or the dragons by force or introduce himself and try to win her over. I believe he may have followed and came to Slaver bay but now had an army which would have made things a lot more difficult for whatever purposes he had. On a tangent, and I am basing this on nothing really, it could be that Gerion Lannister actually made it out of Valyria and ran into Euron, which is where all his magical treasures are from.
  23. I didn't see this written elsewhere so I thought I'd mention it. Euron coming across the Qartheen warlocks seems entirely providential. Unless of course he had already heard about her and the dragons and was heading to Qarth looking for her.
  24. So can Victarion and Melisandre. So far it's been to get favorable wind through sacrifice and for all we know the sacrifice is enough witbout the need for the one who performs it needs to have additional magical potential. The series is unclear whether magic may be performed by anyone with sufficient knowledge or some innate talent is required. I'm inclined to think that it depends on the kind of magic. Controlling the winds has involved in each case a "gifted" individual (Moqorro, Melisandre), but then again Euron has the warlocks at his disposal, so this does not prove that Euron is capable of performing magic himself. The notion that he is some kind of greenseer seems a bit of stretch to me from the mention of some dream of flight. Regardless, whatever he's trying to pull off, he's doing it against the one family that has been set up as having the potential to thwart him.
  25. I'd think the opposite. The Highhtowers are sitting in a cache of knowledge for generations, while for all we know Euron never dabbled in magic prior to coming across the warlocks and their shade of the evening.
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