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The Sleeper

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  1. On 10/21/2023 at 7:46 AM, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

    Should I rename this topic : 

    Arya killing Daeron : Was it right? 

    lol

    Bit late. 

    Pretty much every thread with that kind of topic and a few others besides, turns to Arya's mental state which in turn inevitably turns into a discussion of Daeron. It's like gravity. 

    I must have seen a hundred of them. 

  2. There is quite a bit of set up for Theon becoming Bran's vehicle. Bran's arc with Hodor, Varamyr and Theon's own arc. In short Theon is broken, familiar with Bran and has been likened and lived with dogs. All the prerequisites for him to be possessed by Bran have been set up.

    As for convincing the people present that this is in fact what is happening, that seems easily manageable, too. Bran and Bloodraven could very plausibly arrange for some kind of divine omen. For instance, crows in mass speaking at once or raising the wind. There should also be a way to confirm Bran's identity. The Liddle who Bran's group encountered on their way north, could well be present or have shared details of the encounter with other members of his clan.

    Moreover, it is a way for Bran to re enter the plot without the trouble of having him travel all the way back south and brings all these previous arcs together. 

  3. I think the most straightforward answer is that it refers to Alleras/Sarella, pointing out that there is something going on there. And indeed there is the riddle of her identity. 

    That said the way that Martin uses sphinx is more akin to the generic term chimera, as opposed to the specific monster as a mixture of disparate things. There is a variety sphinxes after all. I don't recall if all of them have human heads, which would justify the use of sphinx.

    They maybe allusions to the Valyrian genetic experiments, or perhaps to skinchangers in that they share traits with their animals. 

  4. 12 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

    And your edit still doesn't solve the problem of differenciating monarchies and other human societies. In fact, you stressed the similarities: that people in power tend to rot away no matter they got up there by blood relations or ... any method, really.

    That's certainly an aspect of it, but not what I was going for.

    To clarify, Robert had a Hand, councilors and vassals all with their own agendas and context and therefore had constraints on his ability to exercise power. Theoretically, he could order anyone to do anything, for instance he could order Tywin to dump all his gold into the sea. Of course that would cost him a major source of income and Tywin would never do that.

    How any king rules depends on his support, administration and bureaucracy and has limits to his authority. Acting outside of those limits undermines his ability to exercise power and also has the pressure to reinforce the power of those immediately lower than them in the chain of command in order to maintain their own power. Hence the person of the sovereign influences the outcome only so far.

    I think you'd be hard pressed to find any human society where this power dynamic doesn't exist though its influence varies of course.

  5. 15 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

    So basically a society with a king is a human society. Ok.

    It is too generalized, fair enough.

    The point is though that some things are inherent in the hierarchy and don't depend on the character of the person occupying the position or their intentions. 

  6. There is no such thing as a good king.

    For one, no single person can govern, they are at the head of a hierarchy and often stand as no more than a figurehead. in fact in many cases that would be for the best. The less they do the less mess they will make. Tommen is an excellent prospect in that regard.

    For another that whole system is founded on coercion and exploitation top to bottom, as well as the belief that some people are better than others.

  7. Tywin and Cersei essentially are doing the same shit. They antagonize and try to undermine everyone else and think they are being subtle about it. The outcome would have been the same had Twin survived in the long run. The reason Tywin got away with it for as long as he did was because of hype and various other reasons that ultimately come down to him being a man.

    Tywin is the only character that Martin broke the fourth wall for to tell that he is full of shit and rotten to the core.

     

  8. 20 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

    An 'open rebellion' he controlled from the start by having an insider ready prepped and only created by him having to kill lysa early..had lysa  not been  as loony hed have  had a much smoother time plus we know he had well picked mercs like brune close by should things get physical.

    He had that patron murdered so he could cause chaos move up , the title of hand gave him control of finances and allowed him to skim off and get profitable brothels and bars but he was stuck and it was only a matter of time before jon arryn worked out he was being cucked (esp with varys watching)..in feudal society he needs titles.

    He doesnt care if robert lives or dies as hes slowly securing the vale regardless through sansa and harry the heir...lil robert has a few more years/months at best.

    Lf has secured for himself harrenhall, overlordship of the riverlands , the tyrells owe him for helping with joff  and  hes in virtual control of the vale (the only place unspoiled by war and as we see in the winter extracts is stockpiling food for when its prices skyrocket!!). Kl as we see hes still got  plenty of control of as all cerseis mercs (secretly doible dealing her to bronn+tyrion) were actualy LFs men, varys is gone, his brothel/alehouse money making/intel network is secure and itl be next winter before anyone can figure out what hes done with the crowns money!! 

     

     

    You're missing the following points:

    1. There was a rebellion to begin with
    2. He is preparing for the next stage, where he doesn't have the title.

    Littlefinger's situation means the title is causing him problems and he is setting up a situation where he doesn't have the title. So, where is the benefit? Why did he supposedly aim to gain the title and how does it make him more powerful in comparison to his position as Master of Coin prior to the start of the series?

    The title does not allow him to exercise any actual power, any power he has is the same as he had in King's Landing. Rather than ordering people around as their Lord he bribes and manipulates them like he did before and he has to spent money to achieve it. The title rather than a boon is a burden as he has to spend political and literal capital to maintain it. The reason he does so is that he controls through it access to Robert, without which he would simply be irrelevant to most of the Vale. Which is why he is setting up a situation like in King's Landing where he can influence things as part of the Harry's inner circle.

    There you hit on what I consider to be his only true agenda in the Vale: to profiteer on food. I'm not sure if he has any food on his own to sell, the food is the lords to sell. He probably plans to have some appointment regarding exports in Gulltown, through which he would take some commission on sales. He is not there, yet. He is still setting things up. 

    There is also the fact that his machinations are corrosive to the ability of the Vale to function as a unit. The most powerful lord of the Vale will certainly not follow his lead and in matters of war it is questionable if even his own friends will take directions from him. The other major issue is that having granted the Gates of the Moon to Nestor Royce means that lord of the Vale has no seat for most of the year and will essentially be the hostage of whoever houses him.

    You cannot compare also the amount of money that went through his hands in King's Landing where he treated the entire kingdom's economy as his personal bank, with whatever he stands to make in the Vale. He also cannot be said to wield influence in King's Landing through the Kettleblacks. Not only they are small fry, they are not under his control anymore.

    As for being imperative to him to leave King's Landing. His whole financial bubble was bound to burst during the war, shipments and payments would have fallen through and he have fewer options when it came to borrowing money. His own value was that he never said no to anybody for money or anything else. He wouldn't have been able to produce money out of nowhere or to go along with anything his superiors said. For example, Cersei halted the payments to the Iron Bank. Was he going to go along with it? What was he going to do then when she would start demanding money out of him? The Kingdom's finances were becoming a hot potato, which is why he pushed Tyrion for the role.

    The other reason he had to leave was the Tyrells. Littlefinger himself murdered Dontos, his own partner in crime so that he wouldn't talk. Why would he expect any different treatment from the Tyrells?

  9. 15 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

    Seems weak man

    hed clearly  always planned to rise to head of the vale using lysa's obsession with him..hes been prepping the vale for his rule for some time, look how easy he utterly defused all resistance to him and is securing control. 

    He just needed a sufficent title once lysa was widowed to marry her !  hes the one who made the starks suspect the lannisters for jon arryns death as he needed conflict and chaos to rise.

    How exactly is that clear?

    The whole fault in your line of reasoning is that he is more powerful now. That's just not true. Titles are of limited use to him. He doesn't have the prestige or the troops to make good on them. You'll have noticed that he faced near open rebellion over his guardianship of Robert.

    In contrast, in King's Landing, prior to the war he controlled the finances of the entire kingdom, had the second most powerful man in the kingdom as his patron, had access to the most powerful people and had tons of others in the government either appointed by him or beholden to him. he even sold offices.

    In contrast, in the Vale, he has spent money and do favors in order for him not to be removed. You can tell how much the title means to him, by the fact that he doesn't care whether Robert lives or dies.

  10. Littlefinger did not start or want the war of the five kings. His main motivations was to prevent Stannis from gaining prominence in the court and later from ascending to the throne and keep his own head and position. The way things turned out was a disaster for him. He didn't plan to go back to the Vale. He fled there.

  11. On 6/19/2023 at 11:23 PM, Springwatch said:

    Stormbringer being the seed for Lightbringer seems the most likely, and VS swords generally. The hungry sword idea plays out openly with Lady Forlorn - she has a thirst; whenever she comes out to dance she likes a drop of red. Maybe we should be looking at the VS wielders instead of dragon riders and wargs.

    That is a cool idea.

    The first thing my mind went to when I first read the books and specifically the depiction of Ice was Stormbringer and Melnibone. I can get by the idea that Valyrian swords are haunted/cursed or perhaps fated, but it's not a general rule. There plenty of people who are bloodthirsty without Valyrian steel and others who have Valyrian swords and are not bloodthirsty. It could play out as theme but there is room in the story for it to be a genuine magical element.

    If we are to look to something like that, it should be the original Valyrian sword, Ice. Original in the sense, that it was the first portrayed in the story and the one most attention has been given to, by far. it has been used regularly in a fashion that has been shown to be very similar to ancient sacrifices (Ned using it for executions, then ritually cleaning it before Winterfell's heart tree, feeding it in the process) even turning against its wielder when it was used to execute Ned. Then there are the resulting swords, which appear to be stained by blood. Their names are also relevant to the stories of their wielders. Widow's Wail appears to be referring to Cersei wailing when Joffrey was murdered. Brienne and Jaime have story arcs that revolve around the keeping of oaths. The description of the fight at the Whispers refers to Oathkeeper coming alive in Brienne's hands. The name "Oathkeeper" could itself be a reference to another sword in Moorcock's mythos "Traitor" which belonged to Corum (Moorcock has tons of cursed swords).

    Still, there doesn't appear to be any direct, overt influence, which is why I said that these particular swords may be fated. For the most part, so far it appears to be a theme rather than in story magic.

  12. The Yunkai'i have plenty of inoconsistencies, starting with having slaves to begin with after supposedly releasing them, along with some other stuff like the girl emperor having bred her slave soldiers despite being sixteen etc.

    It does have an easy fix, which is consistent with the story. The Yunkai'i did not release all of their slaves, not even most of them. They couldn't have or their society would have fallen apart and it's not like Dany checked. It should have been addressed though.

    I think that Dance was rushed through editing and publication to coincide with the first season of the show, which is why stuff like this slipped though.

  13. I don't think it is a retcon. There are multiple references since the beginning of the books and extra material of various Targaryens being preoccupied with prophecy, either through dreams of their own or through other sources. Rhaegar is the most prominent and relevant in the main story, but maester Aemon is among those who takes it seriously and the first Aerys along with Bloodraven were also preoccupied with it. The second Jaehaerys married Aerys and Rhaela due to the prophecy as he was obviously aware what the Ghost of High Heart was talking about. 

    As for the original Aegon, it seems clear to me that the Targaryen banner is a direct reference to the three heads of the dragon in the prophecy.

    I would guess that the broad strokes of this stuff had taken shape by Clash, but the idea of tying these together probably existed beforehand.

    Regardless of when he came with it, it works just fine in the story, no retcon required. 

    That said, the show version of it being part of the legacy each Targaryen king passed on to the next doesn't work. For one the succession rarely worked that smoothly and obviously there were plenty of Targaryens who didn't give a crap about any prophecy or were unaware of it. There is also the fact that prophecies in the book almost never contain that much ambiguous information. It seems most likely to me that they little more than what the readers have been told in the main series and it would have been subject to interpretation.

    In that context, I think the original Aegon didn't start his conquest for descendants of his three hundred years into the future, but because he thought that the prophecy was about him and his wives. It is consistent for a conqueror to justify his actions on a divine mandate or destiny.

    It could be that the Martel letter actually contained some relevant information about the prophecy convincing him that it wasn't him and/or that the eventual prince would of Martel blood as well. 

  14. Yes, it would. 

    I think you might have hit on something though. I think the whole burnt hand thing might be part of the Azor Ahai mythos and that Moqorro is trying to manipulate prophecies like Melissandre does.

    Because guess who else has a burnt hand? Jon.

    Euron fits in as well as he has a bloody eye like Jon.

    My guess is that the Greyjoy bros are supposed to be false candidates for whatever role Jon is meant to play in the prophecy. 

  15. I can’t imagine anyone. The series has so many characters it would be easy to find someone to pick up the slack and doing what the plot needs them to. 

    2 hours ago, Nevets said:

    Most dead characters fall into one of two categories.  The first is those who had to die for the story to work.  Their death had a major effect on the story or a character, or created a hole that needed filled.  The second is those characters who it is difficult to imagine playing a useful part now.

    My candidates for the character he regrets killing off are:

    Janos Slynt; Oberyn Martell; Quentyn Martell; Kevan Lannister; Pycelle.

    Janos - Every hero needs a formidable antagonist.  Janos was essentially the leader of the opposition.  He was popular, and didn't agree with Jon on much of anything.  No one left has that gravitas.  Martin may be wishing he had someone able to give Jon a hard time.

    Quentyn - Quentyn could be useful as an ally and source of information.  Maybe even try to get married after leaving Meereen.

    Oberyn - He was a useful source of chaos.  It may be that Martin is finding the Sand Snakes aren't as useful for this as Oberyn was.

    Kevan and Pycelle - Their absence has yet to play out.  It may be that their departure leaves too big a hole in KL and Martin is having trouble filling it.  It may also be that he wants someone powerful in the Westlands, and with Kevan gone, there isn't one.

    There's Alliser Thorne and it's not like the rest of the Watch are all in line.

    Quentyn had his companions to serve as links and sources of information. As for being a suitor, how many people is Dany supposed to marry?

    The Sand Snakes and Arianne are following on Oberyn's footsteps and they are in multiple places.

    As for Kevan and Pycelle, it's hard to see how this will play out. I guess the main immediate purpose is to cause a rift between the Faith and the Throne and to set Cersei loose. Still there is someone who is politically savvy enough to tone down things. That is Margaery. 

  16. I don't remember Elric being mad, though to be fair it's been twenty years since I read the books. What I do remember I'd Stormbringer hooking Elric by appearing to be the only answer to the increasingly chaotic and violent situations he found in, until only Stormbringer was left and set free. Which worked as a metaphor for the falsely necessary, ever escalating and harder to escape nature of violence. 

    That very broad theme does exist in ASoIaF, not just Dany's arc, though it is presented in much more practical terms rather than the philosophical and almost metaphysical exploration of it in Moorcock's work.

    That said I also don't think that Dany is mad or that Targaryen madness is a genuine story element rather than an in story affectation. What we're seeing are the effects of power and conceit, with maybe some supernatural influences.

    The issue with Dany is that she doesn't need to do anything particular violent to be presented as mad or tyrannical. All she needs to do is be just like everyone else, it's the nature of the system. Only in her case it will all be twisted in a more sinister directions.

    This is addressed in the story, through the  rumors circulating in Volantis about events we witnessed as readers concerning Dany and how while some have factual basis they represent gross misinterpretations and are of course aimed at vilifying Dany. 

    So while I could see Dany growing more ruthless and violent, I don't really see her reaching the levels of a Tywin or a Roose. 

    As for Cersei, Catelyn and Liza, well, Cersei is the logical conclusion of Tywin, Liza's agenda was far from illogical, but just appeared so from Catelyn's perspective, who didn't know she had murdered and was looking for a patsy and as for Catelyn you could argue (and I have, at great length) that she was in the right and everyone else was a dumb ass not follow her lead or at the very least stay out of her way. 

    These characters are reminiscent of certain tropes and may have been, at least in part inspired by said tropes, however there are in each case subjective factors that lead to the development of their individual characters as well as an objective framework that limits and impedes the exercise of their agency, that can both be attributed to the social context they found themselves in.

    That said, the King's Landing arc has been almost entirely gutted in the show along with most of the North and the Wall, along with who knows what else. Obviously the books can't end like the show. Individual plot points without context are meaningless. 

  17. I thought I was clear. Of course it has huge significance. It is called the God's Eye and it is giant grove of the mystical, immortal semi-sentient trees that humans and other species have worshipped and sacrificed to for aeons. It is central geographically and in the mythology of the series. And so is Harrenhal, as it is the most seen location beside King's Landing and probably the Wall. 

    And yet people, with very few notable exceptions, act as if the God's Eye is not even here. That is the clue about how they act. They/it influence minds in one level or another. 

  18. 35 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

    That's pretty vague.

    There's basically nothing else. It's a fairly sized island smack in the middle of a huge Lake in the middle of the continent and it barely gets mentioned in the main series, despite its apparent historical significance, with only a few short references in the world book about attempts at approach being thwarted with sudden squalls and flocks of ravens. I would quote it, but that's pretty much all there is. It's not that people don't go there, they apparently they don't even think about going there.

    The way I see it, either Martin forgot about the God's Eye, or whatever's there doesn't want people around and has the ability to make it so. Provided the above this involves some sort of mind-control.

  19. 12 hours ago, Hippocras said:

    I tend to wonder if the Green Men order are actually hiding in plain sight. The beliefs about antlers, green skin, elk riding, etc. are just red herrings that help the real members of the order from moving around as normal people, unnoticed. If so, many of the strange characters associated with Harrenhal may have been part of the order. Red Harren, Alys Rivers, etc. Or not. I don't know. Still, if so it has interesting implications, and we would need to consider who might be part of the order in current events, and what the objectives of the green men currently are.

     

    Going to add a link to this thread as it might have interesting and relevant points:

     

    My theory is that they were sacrificed and uploaded to the trees. Hence the "green" men. 

  20. 19 hours ago, Hippocras said:

    Tyrion was born in 273. Married in 286. Unless both his birthday and his marriage were very near the beginning of the year, any child he had with Tysha, at the point in the story when Arya was Cat, would most likely be 13, not 14, though 14 is certainly possible. You know who else was born in 286 or 287 and has a very murky heresay backstory from people likely to lie to him? Podrick Payne.

     

    And just because she was raped she did not lose her crofting skills.

     

    Exact same applies to a lover of Gerion Lannister, except that he WAS in fact sailing away (to Valyria no less) and so the story fits better.

     

    True. But he lover could actually be dead. Like Gerion.
     

    Or it could be Pod, and Pod become Lord of Casterly Rock. I very much doubt that it would end up going to Lanna, even if she did turn out to be Tyrion's daughter. There are simply no shortage of male Lannisters around who would believe, rightly or wrongly, that their claims take precedence. Pod, on the other hand, would not be contested.

    Gerion is nothing more than a side note in the story so far, but things are heating up with Euron now that he is back. The burning of the Lannister fleet by Euron and Victarion means there is a certain amount of history between these two character that might make Gerion and his quest to find Brightroar more relevant. it is possible, for example, that Euron's Valyrian steel armour might have been made from Brightroar, and he may even have had a hand in Gerion's death. Lanna being Gerion's daughter would of course still give her a modest claim to Casterly Rock if needed so it would not change anything in that regard.

    Everyone agrees that Tywin's reaction to Tyrion's marriage was extreme and abhorrent. We believe we have sufficient reasons for why he did what he did. But what if his reaction was ALSO about Gerion, who had recently announced that he got some common girl pregnant in Braavos and married her? And what if, knowing what he then knew about what Tywin did to Tysha, Gerion never returned as intended because he knew what his brother would do? It did not stop him from fathering at least 1 more bastard, Joy Hill, but if he was already married he obviously would not marry Briony or anyone else exacerbating the conflict with Tywin.

    A few points:

    A farmer without land to work on doesn't have an income. 

    The wiki gives the dates for Gerion's first tour of the Free Cities at about 271 AC and his later expedition at about 291 AC. The later date comes from a quote in the book. 

    Lanna being Tyrion's legitimate daughter doesn't give her some claim. She's next in the line of succession as Tyrion's heir. Granted I was mentioning it as a funny prospect, rather then a realistic one. But should Tyrion take Casterly Rock, who knows. 

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