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The Drunkard

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Everything posted by The Drunkard

  1. Even if it weren't gambling I'd be happy to see it regulated away, just out of self-interest. So few of these big games have had extra content worth buying recently. I miss expansions.
  2. The Drunkard

    Video Games: A Far Cry From E3

    FPS seems the best option for a couple of reasons in addition to gunplay. It's easier to navigate cramped indoor spaces in first person than in third, and a large part of the game seems like it will be indoors if that comment about most buildings having an internal section is true. Plus if there are a lot of environmental objects like terminals, computers, keypads, etc, around the place it's easier to interact with them in first person. I do like third person for when I'm roaming the environment but I much prefer first for when I'm actually doing stuff, so the FPS doesn't bother me.
  3. The Drunkard

    Video Games: A Far Cry From E3

    I think I'll be giving Fallout 76 a miss. Entirely online, all surviving humans are players apparently, and I get the impression the game is just going to be PvP and open world PvE raids with some radiant missions directing you around the place, which has been my least favourite part of recent Bethesda games. Cyberpunk looks cool.
  4. There is no proof that he can get. Confessions are the only thing that could be considered conclusive in that time, and he isn't in a position to get one on either the parentage or the murder. He can only look at all the clues - all of Robert's bastards looking Baratheon, all Baratheon-Lannister pairings ending with the Baratheon look, all of the royal children looking Lannister, Jon Arryn's sudden death - and either assume that they are coincidence or that his theory is correct. The latter is not unreasonable (and it's mostly true, as it turns out). The reaction that everyone else had to knowledge of the bastards is relevant if we seek to judge Stannis, and neither Ned nor Jon revealed their investigations and conclusions. Ned for different reasons, but even Jon chose to leave cryptic clues rather than flat-out tell Robert. Renly, if he knew, also chose to keep it secret. I don't blame any one of them given Robert's reaction to bad news and his tendency to let the Lannisters get away with all that they do. Given that Stannis thinks Robert will disregard any accusation coming from him as self-serving opportunism (right or wrong, this is what he thinks) he can only work through mediators whom Robert actually cares for, like Jon Arryn. The fact that he enlisted Jon to try and convince Robert is enough for me to think that he had no malicious intent. His refusal to work with Ned (if Pycelle was even sending Ned's letters to Dragonstone) is just evidence of negligence and not caring about Ned, not a desire to see Robert murdered. Which would be pointless given it leaves Stannis with a few thousand men on an island and no one left to back his claim about the royal children.
  5. The Drunkard

    Was the second shadowbaby necessary?

    The problem is that at this stage Stannis is proceeding based on what Melisandre says is a necessity. He isn't the sceptic that he is in ASOS onwards, as all of her promises thus far have come true and she's gained him the cream of the Reach and Stormlands chivalry with their infantry likely to follow. She has apparently told Stannis that they "must" have Edric before they can leave, and he believes her. Using her magic is the only thing that guarantees a swift victory. \
  6. No. Stannis begins to suspect the truth and he approaches the only other honourable man at court so they can investigate. They discover that every one of Robert's children they come across shares his look while not one of the royal children do, and he (potentially) learns that every recorded instance of Baratheon-Lannister pairings ends with the Baratheon look dominating. The healthy Jon Arryn suddenly drops dead. Short of a confession (which he cannot expect to get) he can only assume that all of this is coincidence or else that he and Jon were onto the truth. There is no proof available to him. The only hypocrisy is that he didn't lay it all down for Robert given he'd probably want his own men to do the same for him, but then neither did anyone who learned the truth.
  7. The Drunkard

    Video Games: A Far Cry From E3

    Speaking of people in need of a good Roman conquest, Ancient Empires (mod for Attila) came out recently. I started a game as Rome, and it's been pretty fun. The game starts with the battle between Hannibal and Scipio. After beating Hannibal, I sent Scipio to siege Carthage (and later the city to the south). Hannibal has this annoying tactic where he waits in harbour with a sizeable army to force me into the starving the city rather than attacking, but then proceeds to sail away once I've withered down the garrison. I'm sending a second legion to hopefully blockade him in the next city he sails into. Meanwhile in Spain, all the tribes are killing each other and calling me into their wars. The local legion was only at 1/4 strength and I don't think I can recruit soldiers in that region yet, so I've filled it with mercenaries. Imagining that it would be too hard to keep public order positive, I'm just sacking the local tribe cities rather than conquering them. Once I've dealt with Hannibal I'll send my two African legions to help conquer Spain. Then, Egypt.
  8. The Drunkard

    Danys campaign

    Aegon has stolen her thunder in that regard. He's the young male heir of Rhaegar Targaryen, leading the most disciplined army in the world, with Varys working PR for him, and in the sample chapter... He's everything a Targaryen supporter could want in a claimant. If either he or Dany is uninterested in sharing power then she'll need to defeat him and his allies, so her invasion likely won't be smooth.
  9. I'm certain Stannis would have Mel and Selyse killed if they sacrificed Shireen behind his back. I can see him making the decision himself if the situation was dire enough, like if the Others have breached the Wall, but he's not the sort of person who would let others make the decision for him. He ejected most of the king's men from within his inner council because they smuggled Edric away, even though Davos convinced him after-the-fact that it was the proper thing to do, because it wasn't their decision to make.
  10. The Drunkard

    Video Games: A Far Cry From E3

    I started playing CK2 again, this time as a custom doux of Sicily at the 769 starting date, using a steam mod that makes Africa more detailed. Within this initial ruler's lifetime I've stolen all the counties within Sicily and added them to my demesne, seceded from the ERE, taken the nearby African duchies in holy wars and taken enough counties from the Lombards in southern Italy to create the Kingdom of Sicily. I've married into the Lombard ruling dynasty so my plan is to put my wife (or possibly mother at that point) on the throne when an opportunity arises, at which point my king will control the entire peninsula and much of Africa. My long-term goal is to worm my way into the Byzantine ruling dynasty, get a claim on the empire and then take over. With my western holdings and the byzantine lands in the east I shouldn't be far off recreating the complete Roman Empire at that point. Basically the entirety of western and central Europe is being run by a battle-hardened hunchback dwarf, incidentally. The vassals of King Karloman of East Francia rebelled in order to put King Karl of West Francia on the throne, and they won. Karl legitimised his son, Pepin, and then died soon after without leaving any male heir. Throughout Pepin's rule he finished Karl's invasion of Saxony and Denmark, took some land in Spain via holy war, helped an Umayyad vassal secede and put down Widukind's rebellion, so his vassals mostly love him (other than the pagan ones).
  11. The Drunkard

    The Best commander in ASOIAF

    The ones we know of aren't necessarily all the ones that happened. Stannis almost exclusively talks shit about Robert so for him to speak highly of Robert's battle record must mean that it's excellent. If it wasn't, he'd probably instead complain about being overlooked at yet another thing.
  12. The Drunkard

    The Ultimate Winds of Winter Resource

    In every year since 2015 I've thought "this is the year" and then had my hopes crushed by a blog post. It's my yearly ritual.
  13. The Drunkard

    Roose Bolton vs. Stannis Baratheon

    1 - Stannis. He has more men, a defensive position and his men must win or die. The Freys have more cavalry but won't be able to use it, and retreat is an option for them. 2 - Let no one back in the castle. Even if Stannis was to win the battle with 0 casualties he would then need to storm a strong castle defended by an amount of men roughly equal to his own, most of whom will be better equipped and trained than his clansmen and smallfolk. I expect he'll need to bluff or deceive his way into the gates if he's to win, but if Roose just seals up the castle until the storm ends he can't do that. 3 - I would probably send the Freys out a day earlier than the Manderlys with orders to set up camp and ambush the Manderly force when they're far enough from the castle, and only then proceed against Stannis.
  14. The Drunkard

    Sansa retakes the North

    There's no reason for Sansa (or Littlefinger, given he's in charge) to invade the north throughout winter. Not only is it a logistical nightmare, any potential invader has nothing to gain from getting entangled in the current northern conflict. Like Tywin planned, they'd be better off waiting until spring when Stannis, Roose and the ironborn would have smashed themselves to pieces or else had their armies starved away. If the Vale were to invade now they'd need to take on the victor at Winterfell and then keep themselves fed throughout the occupation, all of which resolves itself if they delay for a few years.
  15. The Drunkard

    Would Balon attacking the Westerlands really change anything?

    I think they would. Mace made peace with the Martells despite their ancestral rivalry and Oberyn literally crippling his heir, so I think he'd work with Stannis, and for Stannis' part he never actually expresses any hate for the Tyrells beyond the general "knights of summer" critique that applies to every house in the Reach and Stormlands. With most of his chivalry already following Stannis I think Mace would follow the path of least resistance and submit.
  16. The Drunkard

    AMC's ‘The Terror’ (based on the novel by Dan Simmons)

    The last episodes haven't even been ripped yet which I've never heard of happening to a reasonably-popular tv show, which tells you how few people must have that special service where all 10 are available. I'd gladly pay the $30 or whatever it will end up being if I could download them all. Anyway, this has been my favourite show to watch in quite a while. I remember the rough story but not enough for each episode not to have some surprises in it. Hickey would've been a good Littlefinger, such a sketchy looking guy.
  17. The Drunkard

    Stannis army losses and future battles

    I'd guess he has 500-800 southerners left. Whatever it is or however optimistic/pessimistic you want to be, it'd be fairly low. I don't think the friction will come to anything. The king and queen's men are committed to Stannis, and the northmen are committed to revenge against the Boltons. Besides, the whole situation reminds me of the situation leading up to the battle of Pharsalus between Caesar and Pompey. Like Caesar's men, those in Stannis' camp basically have no option but to fight or die. Even if the snows allowed it, they don't have the supplies to retreat. News that the Freys are finally riding out to fight should galvanise them. I think Hoster will attack. He was explicitly ordered by Roose to attack Stannis, and he'll also be enraged with Aenys having being killed. As far as he knows, Stannis is floundering in the snow with a starving army (as per the report sent to Roose by the Dreadfort maester). He doesn't know that Stannis is hoping for an attack (possibly no one but Stannis is aware of that).
  18. The Drunkard

    Military Strengths and More!

    His comment about having 500 swords or better may not be specifically referring to his southerners. For the purposes of fighting for Stannis in the upcoming battle (which is Massey's reason for staying) there's no reason to distinguish between northern and southern soldiers. Stannis probably doesn't rate the clansmen or the peasants very highly, and if Massey is completely average, that 500 could be around half the remaining southerners and a hundred or two of the Winterfell soldiers being considered better than Massey.
  19. The Drunkard

    So, what is going on in the north

    I can see that going either way. It makes perfect sense for them to want Jon dead, as with Stannis gone he's the last figurehead for their enemies to rally behind, and in earlier chapters Theon overhears soldiers talking about how Jon and Stannis have allied, so he'd be a known enemy as far as they're concerned. And having Ramsay write the letter partly removes Roose from responsibility, which is typical of him. On the other hand, Roose repeatedly provokes Ramsay to his face thinking that he has utter control over him, and I'd be surprised if Ramsay never snapped. Plus, in ADWD Theon sees them arguing with each other and the Frey wife looking afraid, so that relationship may already be nearing its tipping point. I can imagine Roose laying the blame on Ramsay for the escape of Theon and Jeyne, and saying something cutting enough to make Ramsay kill him (or start planning it).
  20. The Drunkard

    Video Games: May the force of your wallet be with you

    Hearts of Stone you could do whenever, it's like a (longer/better) Bloody Baron style questline that doesn't tie into the main quest. Blood and Wine is like a conclusion for Geralt, so do that last.
  21. The Drunkard

    naval strength north

    If it's on the west coast then the Twins aren't as important as Robb could simply sail his army south to Seagard or some other port. If it's on the east coast then probably nothing changes, other than maybe he uses it to raid parts of the Crownlands that Stannis doesn't already have under blockade.
  22. The Drunkard

    Is Robb Stark a prodigy?

    Robb was gifted that victory, it wasn't for any action on his part that the victory was great. Any commander would see the value in using a secret path to bypass an unconquerable fortress and surprise an unsuspecting enemy, but not everyone has a magic pet who does all the work in finding one.
  23. The Drunkard

    Is Robb Stark a prodigy?

    He's not close to either of them. Robb essentially made two worthy moves, one of which was the forced march down to Riverrun while his enemies focused on Roose, and the other was capturing Jaime and most of his commanders before the battle outside Riverrun. After that his magic pet finds a secret path allowing him to navigate his army around a fortress he couldn't conquer, then he defeated an army so green it didn't even post scouts. Robb has a high reputation because people didn't expect him to get any significant wins against the Lannisters. If he had lived and fought as long as the other two did he may have achieved something on their level, but as far as his current displays go he isn't close.