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a free shadow

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  1. Never, it is wishful thinking. Russia as a nation might just be at the point there they still have some strenght to bear bad things, but not much strenght to fight against them, even if the wanted to. And they do not even seem to want to, not that much. Whatever change there can be, it should come from somewhere near the top, too, or it will have a hard time unifying the effort. Not from the very top, as it is unrealistic, but whereabouts.
  2. I don't think anything will happen with Transnistria/Moldova. It would be out of character. Missiles during UN visit was very in character though. So something like that towards more European targets seems more likely. I think it is mostly blinding self-importance, because even genuine fear prompts more rational attempts to really resolve the situation, and the simplest step towards rationality would be a reminder that throwing someone next to you to the zombies will only make one more zombie. And the very basics of risk avoidance is that the biggest risk often enough is to do nothing.
  3. A lot of wars are thought in the Russian heads, namely along the lines of "how are we appearing to be", instead of "how are we, really?".
  4. We will all go together when we go
  5. i need to stop commenting useless things
  6. This source also mentions that Lithuania said it became fully independent a month ago. It is a small detail, but will be interesting to see what is the truth. Perhaps they said it too early, or the Polish PM has just misspoken somehow, or maybe Lithuania has no necessity for Russian gas left but contracts for supply are still in place? In which case Russia would be doing them a favor by giving an excuse to get out of that contract. Very small, but interesting from the point of view on how it is hard to believe even the small things.
  7. It is unlikely, as they recently became the first European country to become fully independent from Russian gas (source: https://www.energymonitor.ai/tech/networks-grids/lithuania-ditches-russian-gas). Unless it would be gas in transit, meant for other countries.
  8. That's true, and hopefully will result as expected. The feeling I have and am now trying to put into words is less rational, more thinking about people and character. More along the lines of "don't give Russians a lull, they will always surprise you then". At the moment, many seem to be considering this a relatively calmer period of repositioning, nearly allowing Ukraine to get a break awaiting new influx of weapons. Which is just so optimistic, that I might not be built for that. On the other hand, any decisive moves by Russia would require some competence and if it is true that all competent personell is truly and fully rotted out of all structures, then there is no one to make these moves.
  9. I am concerned that everyone is overly positive at the moment, almost giving in to wishfulness. Not sure to what extent it is a factual conclusion on my part and how much just a personal feeling... Only saying this as the thread is about to close and it should not bother anyone, other than me.
  10. Ah, this seems exactly like someone who did not get the point. Just because you were surprised by the Russian actions then (many weren't, very few where I am at least), don't let them keep you flinching at every corner, that's what they are working on. I hope it is at least obvious that these two situations (ground invasion and nuclear weapons) are very different. And starting to speak of nuclear weapons as some viable line of thinking does not really do anything other than lend it credibility and more power to Russia in speaking about it. It also distracts from the ongoing very real fighting. Russian army proved to be far worse at fighting than they would like it to be, so they are working extra hard on every other front, including nuclear intimidation, don't help them.
  11. I am dissapointed by this converastion and near fascination about Russia using nuclear weapons just because they decide they want to. While this might seem exciting to discuss, but for me comes across as a type of boredom with the ongoing very real fighting. Russia will not use nuclear weapons, they won't. No matter how exciting that sounds to consider, it is a distraction.
  12. I find it a common, self-indulgent line of thinking of most people who "did their own research". That is, that someone else did not do theirs. Overwhelmingy, it proves to be the opposite. It is also worth noting that the realistic goal of all proaganda, which even Russia is now pivoting towards more often than usual, is not to get you to believe the lie, but to make you comfortable in believing (and telling others) that there is no truth, that you can't know the truth, that someone more powerful will always prevent you from learning the truth. It is a comfortable position to take, but it is complacent. It is also extremely self-indulgent to make yourself into a victim, persecuted for their pacifism (or whatever this is meant to be), while first, this is not about you whatsoever, and second, the criticism here is for your argument not your goal. I did not quote the bits and pieces about the US, because - just to repeat, who cares? It can be a beacon of goodness, it can be three hedehogs in a trechcoat. What matters is that Ukraine wanted to move towards them rather than Russia. And that Ukraine had such a right, as a sovereign nation. I keep getting more and more bewildered how you keep insisting you know better what is best for Ukrainians than the Ukrainians themselves, including loving their children more than them.
  13. Yes, exactly, that was my point, to the conclusion that were was no confidence in Ukraine being able to hold Russia back. Unless you mean that you disagree with that conclusion?
  14. On point. When Russian forces were gathering at the borders, Western countries were reluctant to provide any aid and then encouraged Zelensky to evacuate, suggesting the general line of thinking was that there is no chance for the Ukrainians to hold the front. It was hard to even choose what to point out from this wall of self-indulgent conjenctures, but let me just say that advocating for throwing more bones to Russia and then saying too many concessions were made before is contradictive. Those wrong reasons (at this current moment and not imaginary lead up to it) are what? What would you point out to a fighting Ukrainian today as a wrong reason to be fighting?
  15. Thank you for writing it, so I don't have to look for words to answer that thing. Well, did not last long. The "solution" offered here has been proven to be wildly counterproductive again and again. Just because you would like it to work and it makes you feel good to suggest it, does not make it so. Who are you to diminish Ukraine to some kind of pawn fighting on someone else's behalf? They are fighting for their children, they are fighting for their home. Because those children need not just to survive the day, they need to grow up and have lives. As the Ukrainians said it clearly, they don't need your symphaty, they need more means to fight.
  16. Russia will not collapse teritorially, even if people currently in charge have managed to make an incredible mess of it, Russians as a whole have the mentality to manage it back up. What is interesting for me is that it took so long to confirm what happened to the ship, suggesting it was too hard to really get eyes on it.
  17. I cannot find accurate information if the new postal stamps with Moskva in them went into circulation in Ukraine yesterday or the day before that. If it was yesterday, it would be a small poetic coincidence.
  18. That would be too misguided. Even the Americans must have learned in large and small ways that this situation is not a theoretical problem or a problem that can be solved by avoidance. At least I see some change since, let's say, their own bewilderingly misguided attempt to get Zelensky to evacuate. It was small but truthful moment to shock many people back to their senses, on a human level.
  19. Not sure if you might be including Crimea into it, but if so, Russia is in no position to call it a day, as Ukraine will not give up Crimea. Not until the outside support completely runs out and can be not even then. As they should.
  20. I meant it mostly in the way that too many people assume if the oligarchs get pressured they will in turn pressure Putin, etc. The truth is they are in no position to pressure Putin whatsoever, he gave a lot of their wealth and he can take (most of) it away. Very few would also want to do that even if they could. They are not the bright or the brave, they are people chosen for their convenience. As regards Putin's personal wealth being hit, it is not as if he is out of spending money or cannot replace it by continuing to loot his own country. It is more of an annoyance or affront than a real consequence. Similar answer applies to the most imaginary "someone from Putin's inner circle will step up and stop him from doing the worst". No. He surrounded himself with people who are often thicker than himself. That is why it is crucial that Ukrainians beat them down in the battlefield. That is what might make a difference.
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