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James Arryn

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Everything posted by James Arryn

  1. James Arryn

    NBA 2018: Fear the Deer

    I’m honestly confused. What context am I missing? It seems a pretty linear point to me...an NBA network show put up a list of great scorers whose career games of 40 points or more were fewer than Harden’s put up in this ~2/3rds of a season alone. I just chose to mention Dirk because I think of him as primarily a great scorer. The only point is about how historic what Harden’s doing is...I’m really not sure what context could even be added. If I’d picked a HOFer who was more like a defensive guy or w/e, like a Pippen or pure passer or w/e maybe, but Dirk was if anything much more one dimensional than Harden is, and if it’s efficiency Dirk’s (by a fair margin) highest TS% was .612. Harden’s career TS% is .610, and this year sits at .624...so....again, confused. Edit, for clarity in case I’m being obtuse, the point I’m making: Harden has more 40 or more point games in 51 games this season than Dirk had in 1493 games in his career.
  2. James Arryn

    NBA 2018: Fear the Deer

    Latest Harden update: as of yesterday he leads the league in every single advanced stat designed to be comprehensive, PER, WS, BPM, RPM, VORP, VA, and EWA. Obviously at over 36/game (only below Wilt and fractionally below Jordan’s best season) all time, he’s having an historic season. Over the past 27 games he’s averaging almost 41 ppg to go along with 8/8/3. But just one line for effect: Harden has already had more 40pt+ games this year than Dirk had in his entire HOF career.
  3. James Arryn

    US Politics: Out in the Cold

    1) I am hearing a lot about this. 2) I had somehow not registered the fact that he was a Democrat.
  4. James Arryn

    NBA 2018: Fear the Deer

    Of all the cursed teams, the Knicks make the least sense. Kinda like what my Dad says it was like to be a Leafs fan during the Ballard years.
  5. James Arryn

    US Politics: Out in the Cold

    Graham’s behaviour has become so increasingly reckless and irrational that I’m actually wondering if something’s wrong with him. But the bad news is Trump hearing he can essentially threaten everything seems like one of those natural fits.
  6. James Arryn

    US Politics: Out in the Cold

    Lindsey Graham has apparently decided the stakes in the Washington game of chicken weren’t high enough, and is urging Trump to tie in debt limit increase with the border wall dispute.
  7. James Arryn

    NBA 2018: Fear the Deer

    Where is LeBron playing? I think it’s been mitigated some, but it’s still a big factor.
  8. James Arryn

    NBA 2018: Fear the Deer

    Updated: Updated odds for what team Anthony Davis will be on for the first game of the 2019-2020 NBA regular season (BetOnline): Celtics +150 Raptors +300 Lakers +300 Pelicans +500 Knicks +1000 76ers +1200 Warriors +1600 Rockets +2000 Spurs +2500 Thunder +2500
  9. James Arryn

    NBA 2018: Fear the Deer

    Hard caps just mean advertising/sponsors would be the only way to gain additional revenue, thus if anything maximizing the appeal of major markets. Especially in the NBA wherein an individual star is often more important to the team’s success than the rest combined (vs. average replacement distribution.) and therefore profile. It’s not something with a solution imo, but either way I’m very wary of labour solutions to owner problems. But any fix is just choosing different problems. The artificially in the market is much more that LeBron level players are capped at the current max when their value to the franchise is extraordinarily above that. The no-cap idea would mean more talent accumulation in the bigger or at least wealthier franchises a la MLB/Premier League, but it would also make salaries actually reflect known value more.
  10. James Arryn

    NBA 2018: Fear the Deer

    Are you confused at the Vegas thing, or at my not getting it? Former:
  11. James Arryn

    NBA 2018: Fear the Deer

    Vegas line has Raptors as favourites to land Davis, which I honestly don’t really get.
  12. James Arryn

    U.S. Politics: 5.7 Billion Problems But The House Ain't One

    If that’s at me, you completely misunderstood me. I’m saying it bothers me that part of the reason this is hitting the GOP so hard is because misogyny is so prevalent. It’s just another reminder we’re not nearly as far along as previously hoped. 5 years ago if you’d told me that a guy appealing openly to racism etc. would get elected American President, I’d probably have bet the house against it. And I have a pretty low opinion of America in some ways. I thought we were at least heading downhill. I was very wrong.
  13. James Arryn

    U.S. Politics: 5.7 Billion Problems But The House Ain't One

    I’m not especially anti-Pelosi, but she did much better than I expected, so far. I’m not 100% convinced she wasn’t just less incompetent than the Donald, but moves I thought would ultimately prove relatively pointless (like forcing the Trump lockout statement in the OO) by virtue of Democrat fluidity proved effective in large part because she was very effective shepherding. I also thought it was a mistake to pursue Trump’s desire to make it personal, as that imo appeals to his base more than hers, but again she surprised me and read the room better. I’m a bit bothered big-picture that part of the reason this is causing so much right wing bleeding is because it flips the misogyny, ie ‘he lost to a woman! A lib woman!’ but I guess you take what you can get. Not ready to crown her or anything, but it’s occurred to me that she’s basically the lead in the British House of Cards, ie the gritty old whip no one takes too seriously as a player but everyone needs come cattle drive...so it would at least be interesting.
  14. James Arryn

    NBA 2018: Fear the Deer

    Eh, self correction on Harden’s numbers...averaging 52 over the last 5 , all unassisted. 44 is what he’s averaging over the last 30, but a few of those were assisted.
  15. James Arryn

    U.S. Politics: 5.7 Billion Problems But The House Ain't One

    Is there any way this whole life is just some satirical dream I’m having? Backtats of Nixon...my lord.
  16. James Arryn

    NBA 2018: Fear the Deer

    I seriously underrated him coming out/early on. He’s the type I tend to miss on. To throw more numbers out there, the difference between Harden and the number 2 scorer in the league KD) is the difference between Durant and the 16th/or 17th best scorer in the league, depending which way you round. To put that into more perspective, MJ had that kind of gap in his rookie year and never again came close, with his next biggest margin being about 3.5 ppg.
  17. James Arryn

    U.S. Politics: 5.7 Billion Problems But The House Ain't One

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/24/politics/trump-border-wall-emergency-draft/index.html?no-st=1548371266 So the State of Emergency draft allocates 7 Billion for the Wall.
  18. James Arryn

    U.S. Politics: 5.7 Billion Problems But The House Ain't One

    CNN says that the SOE that was never going to happen is going to happen.
  19. James Arryn

    NBA 2018: Fear the Deer

    There are a lot of insane Harden numbers to pull out, but I’ll just drop this one to start: In the last 5 games, playing with basically a bench team, Harden is averaging about 44 ppg. In those 5 games not one single point he’s scored was assisted. He created every single shot by himself. He is literally taking the hardest shots in basketball, and making them, and he’s been doing it so consistently for so long it’s not something we can call a streak or a wave anymore. This is some version of who he is, pushed to an extreme by circumstance. Hopefully the load will lighten considerably when Paul comes back, and longer term Capella etc., but they have needed everything he’s been giving them. I never in my wildest dreams would have thought they could win like this playing without the guys they’re without and with the guys they’re with. Guys who are waived by other teams are getting 35 minutes/night walking in. I know you guys don’t like him aesthetically, but what he’s doing is insane, and pretty unprecedented in the modern era. Last night he had the first 60/15 night since prime Shaq, as a point guard. He’s scoring more points than the rest of his team on less than half the shots AND assisting on most of theirs. It’s just...it’s numbers that don’t make sense.
  20. James Arryn

    U.S. Politics: 5.7 Billion Problems But The House Ain't One

    I get what you’re all saying, but let me remind you: seemingly imminent victory is a necessary ingredient to the ‘snatch defeat from the jaws of victory’ Democrat special. So when you’re thinking ‘this time is different because______’, remember all those specials were different too. Until they weren’t. Now here’s a point FOR not caving even slightly I rarely see brought up: if the Dems ever trade off wall funding for anything impermanent, they’re fucked. Because the current ‘we’re not going to waste money on a ridiculous idealogical gesture’ flips around once the money’s allocated. Even if Trump openly and shamelessly renegs...which is basically his g to move...the Dems will be the bad guys if they try and tie up or redirect funds already allocated to the Wall. Because at that point they become the party willing to sacrifice taxpayer money for some idealogical gesture. So imo it’s not ‘don’t give in’, but rather ‘don’t give an inch’ or the whole thing goes pear shaped. mormont: weird, almost didn’t notice autocorrect had typed ‘more mom’...yeah, I pretty much agree up to a point, that’s what I meant by lazy, but I am not confident that side of his personality will win out over the narcissism when he’s piled that stakes this high. That said, for the first time in his life he can’t just light a dumpster fire and move on to another block letting his lawyers and investors worry about putting it out, so he’s probably experiencing some form of crisis. What that will mean is hard to predict...his weirdly gracious surrender over the speech is ringing all kinds of alarm bells but I literally have no idea what they mean. Kal/pony: the problem is it’s been about other, bigger things before and the Dems caved. The historical problem the Dems have is they ultimately believe doing the right/mature/moral thing will be short term loss/long term voter gain, but the American voters often just see a strong winner and a weak loser. Now I agree they seem more resolved much further in than I’ve ever seen before, and Pelosi et al have so far played this about as well as could be imagined, but these things can change quickly and often without apparent cause. Not saying I think this is it, but something as mundane as Trump behaving like a normal human being backing down over the speech might cause a ripple. Larry: imo the point is that the Dems aren’t really committed to the Negation of Wall...some are, but many are just opposed to wasting that much money on something pointless. But once the lockout starts costing their base more than the Wall would, those people will start to wonder what the point is now. Commitment to a positive is easier to articulate than commitment to a negative in a negative-rich environment.
  21. James Arryn

    U.S. Politics: 5.7 Billion Problems But The House Ain't One

    Exactly. His narcissism is actually a strength here. Unlike Pelosi, Shumer or even the Turtle, he doesn’t actually care one bit about who this affects and how it affects them. He’s probably not fielding or even dodging angry calls all day long. He’s still getting a ton of attention, and that’s more important that what kind of attention it is. Our hopes rest imo on 3 things: 1) McConnell et al finally deciding the juice isn’t worth the squeeze and either bailing on him or coming up with some face-saving non-surrender surrender. 2) His poll numbers tank so low Fox jumps ship. 3) He’s lazy. Other than those, he had virtually no (Trumpverse) reason to capitulate, and yuge (Trumpverse) reasons to ‘stay strong’, not the least of which is the fact that many Americans do historically confuse stubbornness with strength. Pelosi et al do have lots of reasons to capitulate set against a few very big reasons not to. At some point for them, though, it will come down solely to optics and precedent, because at some point the lockout will cost them more than the Wall. And while the Turtle also pays, conservative philosophy on government makes a non-government an easier idealogical sell to the base. edit: to be clear, I know the Dems are winning big-time at the moment, and I admit they are already handling this much, much better than I expected. But I don’t think it’s all that sustainable, whereas Trump’s neuroses are.
  22. James Arryn

    U.S. Politics: 5.7 Billion Problems But The House Ain't One

    They’re assailable.
  23. James Arryn

    Strange Things That Just... Do It For You

    My head head, the one on top of my torso/neck. It’s absolutely huge, though...if you look at my pic you’ll think it’s mostly hair, everyone does, but it’s mostly head. Which is why I can never wear hats, because it becomes suddenly apparent that I am basically deformed.
  24. James Arryn

    U.S. Politics: 5.7 Billion Problems But The House Ain't One

    Trump has backed down on the speech, and worryingly did not take any petty juvenile shots while doing so.
  25. James Arryn

    Strange Things That Just... Do It For You

    Having my head rubbed. Like cocaine on heroin for me. I’m pretty picky sexually, but I’ll let anyone rub my head if they do it right.
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