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James Arryn

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Everything posted by James Arryn

  1. James Arryn

    Near-miss from a city-killer asteroid this week

    Paint one half white and the other half black. House painters are the real heroes.
  2. James Arryn

    U.S. Politics: Trump of the Will

    Culture is not a solid.
  3. James Arryn

    U.S. Politics: Trump of the Will

    Watergate was the same. The GOP hardline supported Nixon until almost the end. Even after Dean testified, they said it was ‘he said, she said’ and called Dean a self-serving liar. They attacked the press, they called it the ‘worst kind of stunt’, and supported Nixon firing the special council et al down to Bork. Most of the country didn’t know or care for most of the investigation. The audiences watching the hearings were split pretty much along the party lines, and the Dems themselves were listless and wary of Constitutional repercussions. It really didn’t turn until the tapes. That is one of the two primary differences; no way today’s Supreme Court goes 8-0 against Trump. The other primary difference is that no one back then bought into the idea that Presidential obstruction wasn't a big deal. The case really hinged on that 1 conversation a few days after the break-in where Nixon issues directions to obstruct the investigation. That was the ‘it’ moment leading to Goldwater’s ‘very few and not mine’ moment. And for the record the Mueller Report contains almost a dozen such moments that are largely uncontested. Imo they are uncontested because the GOP don’t want the fight to be about obstruction because that will make the public realize that obstruction is a big deal in and of itself. Instead they are trying to dance around it by concentrating on the un-crime of ‘collusion’...they could have skipped some steps and focused on ‘conspiracy’ if they had known how cautious Mueller would be...and by proxies arguing that ‘no collusion = no obstruction’ which they know won’t last a second in the sun. That, to me, is the point of an impeachment. Force the fight out into the open. Let people see how serious obstruction is by virtue of how much Trump et al have to argue it never happened. Once this fiction about collusion dies in the light of that fight, then the people might sit up and take notice. Now, along the lines you are thinking, Trump’s recent racism-inspired surge in approval might actually get more Dems on board impeachment. The alternative...that Trump’s actions as President make him vulnerable and it therefore is wise to deal with him via election...are becoming less attractive as it becomes clear that he is virtually untouchable with his base. Meaning it has to be about turnout. And who looking at the present state of affairs would bank on turnout?
  4. James Arryn

    U.S. Politics: Trump of the Will

    Understood, but we don’t know where their threshold is. It might not take as much as we think. If they can see someone articulate a talking point that might get past this ‘Mueller Found Nothing’ bs, or even if they can see how much the GOP is relying on legally unsound posturing, they might coalesce.
  5. James Arryn

    U.S. Politics: Trump of the Will

    Best case scenario: target is not moving public perception, but that of Congress. Because IF they can push this to proceedings, it forces to GOP to actually fight back on obstruction itself rather than sidestepping with this legally untenable position of ‘no collusion, no obstruction’. Arrest the public’s attention to the gravity of presidential obstruction itself and you might have a game-changer.
  6. James Arryn

    U.S. Politics: Pedophilia is Just Acosta Doin' Business

    I don’t think most of them have much of an idea what to fight for, just against. Historically those kinds of movements work out just...fine?
  7. James Arryn

    U.S. Politics: Pedophilia is Just Acosta Doin' Business

    I mean, it’s good that you agree with yourself with so much conviction, but in terms of suffering and costs, are you proposing anything that won’t come with a ton of both? edit: for the sake of argument i’ll defer to your transported goalposts on non-violence.
  8. James Arryn

    NBA Off-Season 2019 - Bridge Over the River Kawhi

    Yeah, we agree that Paul was probably past the beginning a steep decline...though I would not be surprised if he has a big year this year if he can stay healthy...and I agree Westbrook will attract a different kind of help away from Harden. But he can’t really shoot, which seems a big problem, and his inefficiency seems like a major drag on D’Antoni’s offence. Certainly he’s a name, and he’ll help more than a role player, but my faith as a Rockets fan has to rest in one of 3 places: Morey’s ability to understand hidden values, D’Antoni’s ability to use people to their offensive max, or Harden’s ability to make teammates better. My best hope is he becomes some sg version of Marion, and I CAN envision a pattern of touchdown outlet passes when Harden collects and RW streaks to the other end, or even on occasion with reversed roles, though imo Harden is a better passer and RW a much better streaker. It is encouraging to hear Harden and Westbrook were pushing for this...that should at least give us a year or 2 breathing room before the next episode of superstars-can’t-get-along.
  9. James Arryn

    U.S. Politics: Pedophilia is Just Acosta Doin' Business

    Non-violence does NOT rely on an appeal to the empathy and sympathy of those in charge. It relies on how their demonstrated lack of same will play to everyone else over a long period. It takes an extraordinary amount of courage and patience. Gandhi’s movement in India began in 1920, and India achieved self-rule 27 years later.
  10. James Arryn

    NBA Off-Season 2019 - Bridge Over the River Kawhi

    Exactly. I wanted a rebuild. I liked the Leonard trade more because I thought it’d mean an actual rebuild after he left rather than because I believed he’d get us a chip, but that was an additional potential attraction. When the Lowry trade fell through and he kinda just settled into it, I really despaired, and stayed there until the Spurs deal, but while I credit Masai with successfully drawing a backdoor straight, it’s not exactly the strategy i’d advocate trying to replicate. That said, teams will. Winning breeds imitation in pro sports. But I feel this will inspire a lot of failed attempts like that last Pistons ring; get a bunch of almost-stars who fit perfectly and grind it out...sooooo many teams tried to copy that, a lot was written about thus new ‘no-star’ formula that would put an end to chasing lottery balls, but no one else pulled it off. As for the Harden Westbrook pairing, I admit i’m struggling to see how it’ll work. Again, many people pointed to Harden/Paul having contrasting styles and both needing the ball, but they made it work because they are both, for want of a better term, basketball intellectuals. They both think about the game and how it should be played ALOT, and both mostly beat you by out-thinking you. So while it may have ultimately led to their breach...in the end they both have strong and fully formed philosophies about how to play the game that overlap but also grate, and the grating got too loud is my understanding (plus maybe Harden...imo unfairly...was irritated by Paul not playing through some injuries that he would play through) but it did lead to success for a couple seasons. Whereas RW is...er, not a basketball intellectual, let’s say. He gets by on athleticism and motor. Maybe Morey is seeing something we’re not, maybe he’s just thinking in terms of market value if RW has a big year under MD (he thinks like this way more than most GMs) or maybe not...and maybe MD us the guy to herd cats again. But how it will work is not hitting me in the face, let’s say.
  11. James Arryn

    NBA Off-Season 2019 - Bridge Over the River Kawhi

    Absolutely. I prefer the draft model, but my other major philosophy (especially for the nba) has always been get stars and work the rest out later, and Morey absolutely gets that as much as any gm in sports. As a result, part of what Morey has done is create an environment where Houston is almost always in on any star talent available, whether as free agents, s&ts or just trades, and that has a carry-over where star players will be more likely to go there because they know other stars are likely there or coming, and some role players will go because stars will increase their value. Over time this leads to a lot of turnover, something I find at least aesthetically unappealing but Morey seems to be completely fine with.
  12. James Arryn

    NBA Off-Season 2019 - Bridge Over the River Kawhi

    This is generally the kind of move I hate my teams making...I am very much a ‘build through the draft’ model guy and that’s always been an uncomfortable fit with Morey for me. That said, Morey has publicly stated that building through the draft is by far the best model unless you are one of those few teams where FAs routinely choose to go, and for reasons that mostly baffle me, Houston is one of those teams. Another issue is that, ‘on paper’ this seems like a terrible fit, but then I have learned that Morey often has access to better paper than I do, and MD might be the coach best suited to getting RW to be a better (or more suitable) version of himself offensively. Many originally thought Paul was a horrible fit, though of course now they will point to his 3 pt fg% and revise. I personally like Paul much much more as a player than RW, but he was aging fast and his health issues come playoff time were likely to continue (unless load management becomes the new trend) and if a rift developed between he and Harden I guess that had to be addressed. I am disappointed but willing to wait and see.
  13. James Arryn

    Workable Socialism

  14. It’s not an apples to apples argument. For example, one big takeaway from the last election was ‘Crooked Hillary’.
  15. So then what explained it historically?
  16. James Arryn

    NBA Offseason: From KD to AD

    Haven’t they experienced the vicissitudes of being un-blessed by endless fortune for enough weeks? If you prick them, do they not sue you?
  17. James Arryn

    NBA Finals 2019: Can the Raptors Claw Out a Win?

    For regular fans. Casual fans are attracted to dynasties. Which one do you suppose the league worries about more?
  18. James Arryn

    NBA Finals 2019: Can the Raptors Claw Out a Win?

    The Rockets could have closed then out in 6 last year. Paul got hurt in game 6. Houston was up 3-2 at the time. And in a series which the official league recount sYs ref errors gave GSW 8 ppg, including one of the worst officiated games in history. If you’ll recall Durant out-of-bounds stroll in full view of at least 2 refs with Houston up and seconds on the clock left? That’s a pretty strong ‘could’. This determinism after the fact always annoys me...in sports and fiction.
  19. James Arryn

    What do people think about Hardcore Game of Thrones?

    The scarcity of your posts before this makes it feel like a plug. My apologies if i’m wrong.
  20. James Arryn

    NBA Finals 2019: Can the Raptors Claw Out a Win?

    This stuff had really morphed from ‘all they care about is money, not winning’ of the pre-‘super team’ era. My basic take away is that fans just don’t like it when players get to make important decisions. Super-teams constructed by management are never regarded as moral issues.
  21. James Arryn

    US Politics: Reaching the Tipping Point

    My own view is that anything announced here would have limited readership. I tried launching my bacon & bun Thames tour on here and all I got was the VAT man.
  22. James Arryn

    UK Politics: The End of May

    I’ve often thought that racists say/believe this to mitigate their own. I can say with complete honesty that if I’ve ever had a racist thought in my life I’m unaware of it. No credit to me; no one in my family was racist, I had no racist thinking to overcome. My friends as a child were very multicultural because my parents friends were likewise. I was named after a black man. Racism confuses me so much that my gut instinct when encountering real-life racism is to assume it’s ironic for a few seconds before getting that ‘no, remember, people actually do think like this’. I was super confused by the criteria as a child becoming aware it existed...why not hair colour, or eye colour, or height, or w/e? So, no, I don’t believe everyone is racist. I think it would be convenient for racists to think so, though.
  23. James Arryn

    Good news? Bad news?

    Eagerly anticipating the debate on whether or not an imprisoned sulfuric-acid breathing author enslaved to a fandom qualifies as some kind of ‘bitch’.
  24. James Arryn

    The Book of The Kingsguard - Help Me Decide

    Doesn’t it occur to anyone that Jaime went south to stop Cersei? Just that by the time he got there, there was nothing to stop, just his scared sister with whom he shared an entire life. People are reading way too much into his comment about never caring for the people. Jaime NEVER takes credit for the good/nobble things he’s done. Only one person living knows why he actually killed Aerys, and that’s because he was delirious and probably almost dying of fever. If he tells Brienne why he’s going, what will she certainly do? And since he probably assumes he will die in the attempt, he doesn’t want her to do it with him. Think of how often his solution to a horrible problem is to put himself and himself alone in major danger...kill a King, jump in front of a bear, rescue his daughter from Dorne, charge a freaking dragon...that’s Jaime. How many of any of those things do you EVER hear him talk about/take credit for afterwards? But his list of sins comes out quick enough, because they haunt him. He’d shove Bran out of a thousand towers to save his family a thousand times, but he’d hate himself for each one. And that’s why he tells no one about the Mad King. Because Jaime, in spite of all appearances, is a true romantic. He dreamed about being the great noble knights of history...and then had to stand by and listen while a madman raped his wife and tortured Lords. So even though he knows he had to kill Aerys for ‘the people’, he more than almost anyone else understands that even that fact doesn’t wash away a broken oath. As he says, they ask so many of you...and he’s idealistic about it in spite of his bitter, cynical projection. So even if everyone else forgave his broken oath for saving KL, he never would. So he sits on it, eats the people he saved’s contempt and ridicule because he knows why they are right (and wrong) even if they do not. So no of course he won’t say I love the people, or I’m going to try and save KL from Cersei maybe going all Mad King...he never tells anyone. He went North...alone. Knowing who/what he’d face, the hatred and contempt and desire to kill him...and that’s just on the side he’s fighting for. Think about what kind of person does that. So, after that’s done and he’s almost happy he reads about Cersei fighting like mad to keep KL and he knows what that could mean, win or lose. So he again sets out alone to try and save ‘the people’. It’s absolutely consistent...don’t be misled by what he says, this is ASOIAF/GOT, where words are mostly wind. Just think about what he does...the same thing, over and over, put himself in harm’s way to try and save the day. But Cersei isn’t a threat to anyone anymore by the time he gets there, Dany’s burning the city down and so Jaime then instead tries to save the sister he’s spent his entire life loving, and their baby. And when, at the end, the walls are falling him on him, what does he do? Doesn’t flinch once, just holds a crying, frightened Cersei and tells her nothing matters anyways. Jaime to the end.
  25. James Arryn

    Purpose of the wall now ?

    Ah, so like a ham and cheese sandwich, just without the ham or cheese.