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the trees have eyes

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Posts posted by the trees have eyes

  1. On 6/13/2024 at 1:05 AM, Ring3r said:

    The only thing I can think of that might explain why Benjen suddenly joined the watch is if he knew about the Song of Ice and Fire prophecy that Rhaegar had pretty clearly discovered during his readings.  Rhaegar would have told Lyanna, who was very close to Benjen - I could see her telling him.  Then, he joined the Nights Watch and excelled - because he believed something was coming.  That would make sense - but we have no evidence of it yet, only hints that he does indeed believe in the Others.

    Wouldn't he tell Ned or Mormont, though?  He's been in The Watch 15 years and was First Ranger but it took The Fist of The First Men to wake up the NW to the real threat.  The North still has no idea and thinks it's children's stories of snarks and grumkins. 

    Sadly, I think it's most likely Benjen was never meant to be important so his reasons for joining, like Waymar Royce or Denys Mallister, don't get examined much, and their joining serves to build up the tradition of the NW as more, then and now, that just thieves, rapists and general scumbags. 

    Maybe Benjen's gay and it was a less dramatic way of avoiding a forced marriage and family rupture than The Blackfish refusing to marry the girl Hoster arranged for him.

  2. On 5/25/2024 at 5:34 AM, chrisdaw said:

    Yes it's clearly immoral, he's also young and in the circumstances it's not so unforgiveable. One would hope as Bran ages and develops a better understanding he stops doing it for personal reasons, and if he does do it in future to Hodor or anyone else it is in service of a greater good.

    It'll be dealt with in the future I'm sure.

    Yes, any discussions about Bran tend to look silly when they overlook (or deliberately ignore) the fact that he is a crippled and frustrated ten year old child exploring his powers without any proper adult supervision.  A bit of parenting is all that's needed.

  3. 5 hours ago, The Lord of the Crossing said:

    I wish for the Frey family to receive a full pardon but that is not going to take place now because George set them to receive punishment.  The best hope is indeed a restoration of House Targaryen under Dany.  She will at least listen to all the facts of what took place between the families and pass a balanced decision.  No such balance is possible if a Stark gets enough power to harm the Freys.  Arya and Jon are merciless animals. 

    It never gets old for you, does it? Practically every House in the Riverlands and North had sons or daughters murdered at or held hostage after The Red Wedding, to say nothing of the thousands of men at arms butchered at the wedding feast.  But let's pretend it's a "Stark problem"..... :rolleyes:

    If Arya and Jon are merciless animals in your weird view what does that make old Walder Frey and his brood?

    A Storm of Swords - Catelyn VII*

    Edwyn Frey shoved her aside. The music drowned all other sound, echoing off the walls as if the stones themselves were playing. Robb gave Edwyn an angry look and moved to block his way . . . and staggered suddenly as a quarrel sprouted from his side, just beneath the shoulder. If he screamed then, the sound was swallowed by the pipes and horns and fiddles. Catelyn saw a second bolt pierce his leg, saw him fall. Up in the gallery, half the musicians had crossbows in their hands instead of drums or lutes. She ran toward her son, until something punched in the small of the back and the hard stone floor came up to slap her. "Robb!" she screamed. She saw Smalljon Umber wrestle a table off its trestles. Crossbow bolts thudded into the wood, one two three, as he flung it down on top of his king. Robin Flint was ringed by Freys, their daggers rising and falling. Ser Wendel Manderly rose ponderously to his feet, holding his leg of lamb. A quarrel went in his open mouth and came out the back of his neck. Ser Wendel crashed forward, knocking the table off its trestles and sending cups, flagons, trenchers, platters, turnips, beets, and wine bouncing, spilling, and sliding across the floor.
    Catelyn's back was on fire. I have to reach him. The Smalljon bludgeoned Ser Raymund Frey across the face with a leg of mutton. But when he reached for his swordbelt a crossbow bolt drove him to his knees. In a coat of gold or a coat of red, a lion still has claws. She saw Lucas Blackwood cut down by Ser Hosteen Frey. One of the Vances was hamstrung by Black Walder as he was wrestling with Ser Harys Haigh. And mine are long and sharp, my lord, as long and sharp as yours. The crossbows took Donnel Locke, Owen Norrey, and half a dozen more. Young Ser Benfrey had seized Dacey Mormont by the arm, but Catelyn saw her grab up a flagon of wine with her other hand, smash it full in his face, and run for the door. It flew open before she reached it. Ser Ryman Frey pushed into the hall, clad in steel from helm to heel. A dozen Frey men-at-arms packed the door behind him. They were armed with heavy longaxes.
    "Mercy!" Catelyn cried, but horns and drums and the clash of steel smothered her plea. Ser Ryman buried the head of his axe in Dacey's stomach. By then men were pouring in the other doors as well, mailed men in shaggy fur cloaks with steel in their hands. Northmen! She took them for rescue for half a heartbeat, till one of them struck the Smalljon's head off with two huge blows of his axe. Hope blew out like a candle in a storm.
    In the midst of slaughter, the Lord of the Crossing sat on his carved oaken throne, watching greedily.
    Mercy for this?  Don't confuse mercy with justice.  A full pardon, indeed...
    *Text inserted in the sure knowledge that it will be ignored as inconvenient.
  4. 13 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

    The only real negative for Tywin would be that his death would free up Sansa to be taken to Highgarden for marriage.  But it probably wouldn’t be a big enough negative to dare lose Highgarden as an ally.  Which is the whole reason they had to rush the marriage of Tyrion and Sansa.  They knew if push came to shove, they couldn’t stop Olenna from taking Sansa to Highgarden to marry her off.

    TBH, I see it more as a positive for Tywin.  He can get Joffrey to dismiss / honourably discharge Jaime from the KG and lo and behold he has the heir to Casterly Rock that Aerys robbed him of so many years ago.  Plus he can marry Jaime to Sansa which aggrandises his House and keeps the Tyrells from becoming too powerful.  I don't think he would do Tyrion any harm but I don't think he would mourn him much.

    12 hours ago, Nevets said:

    Sansa is seated next to Tyrion, who is her husband.  As such, she is likely to be noticed if anything happens, and leaving could be difficult.  Besides, what do you think her reaction will be if she sees her husband choking next to her?  Run screaming from the room?  Not if she's the same person we saw at the Blackwater, when she assisted a visibly injured Lancel, tending his wounds and seeing he got medical help.  She'd probably be kneeling next to Tyrion trying to help him  And even if she isn't, leaving unaccompanied is likely to be difficult.  It certainly isn't something a sensible planner would count on.

    Unless Sansa herself was the poisoner :eek: (as per @Frey family reunion's thread).  But how could the planners have anticipated her active involvement indeed, it's quite a gamble on their part if they did.

  5. On 4/14/2024 at 1:33 PM, Sandy Clegg said:

    Are you enjoying your paddle? :D

    The seas are calm and we're set fair, cap'n, not an iceberg within a hundred miles. :thumbsup:

    15 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

    Tyrion dying would certainly create chaos akin to Joffrey dying.

    In today's society a president dying would create more chaos than a random person dying, but so would if the person who died was at the same time the former VP, current ministry of economy and the heir to Elon Musk.

    Erm, no, that's a wild take.  It would be better off to argue than no one would notice Sansa slipping out quietly rather than keep asserting that Tyrion choking on his pie would have wedding guests trampling each other in a panic but it's up to each of us what we find plausible.   It's a royal wedding feast in a feudal monarchy, the guests are the great and the good, many of them experienced in combat and messy deaths.  There needs to be a big enough shock and a good enough reason for everyone to scarper.  Tyrion?

    Tyrion is small beer (sorry, but this is an ableist society), he's the dwarf expected to ride the pig and get laughed at, not the second most revered man in the 7K as you imply.

    The King, on the other hand, is a whole different kettle of fish.

    On 4/14/2024 at 1:33 PM, Sandy Clegg said:

    A king dying signals many fearful things. Regime change. Knives coming out. Searches for culprits. You can see why people wouldn't want to hang around - if a king can be killed, who's next?

    Exactly this.  Tyrion himself muses he should leave.  Oberyn thanks Tyrion for being the object of suspicion, otherwise it might have been him.  It's a giant round of musical chairs and no one wants to be the last one left standing and facing suspicion.  With Tyrion choking, suspicion, if there is any, is on Joffrey, maybe Sansa.  No one else needs to worry and no one needs to run like mad.

  6. 14 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

    I disagree completely. Tyrion is a noble lord, master of coin, former hand of the king and heir to Casterly Rock. He saved the city in some people's eyes, at least Garland Tyrell. And he's still... you know... a person. HIm dying out of the blue would cause people to panic. Him choaking would cause some people want to help him, maybe maesters, maybe Garland, maybe Oberyn. Joffrey's and Cersei's reactions would cause distraction too. And Tywin too, probably.

    I see no world in which he starts to die in the same gruesome matter as Joffrey and people just get on with the wedding. Poeple would panic anyway.

    You're free to disagree.  Would Tyrion choking cause some upset and localised disturbance?  Sure.  Enough for pandemonium to break out and guests to trample themselves in their rush to exit the hall?  Absolutely not.  Joffrey would be both amused and then annoyed that Tyrion was spoiling his wedding feast but guests would be taking their cue from the royal couple and staying put.  And with Tyrin choking Sansa attempting to leave the room and then flee KL without people watching (or stopping) her or immediately searching for her is absolutely unrealistic.  Only the King's death scene causes that uproar or the momentous tolling of the bells which distracts everyone from their normal routines.

    He's you know a person.  Yes. What happened when Gregor Clegane killed Jon Arryn's squire in the Hand's Torney?  Jeyne Poole ran off sobbing, every one else stayed put.  He was a person too but there was no panic as people ran screaming for the exits.  Feudal monarchy =/= representative democracy, people regard and react differently to the king.  Perhaps you noticed the fuss and the ceremony in the UK when Queen Elizabeth passed away in 2022 and that was for a constitutional monarch who had a ceremonial function only.

    You are confusing a reaction to Tyrion choking to the scene of chaos when the king dies at his own wedding feast.  The two are apples and oranges yet you are treating them the same.

    Why would people panic and run out, trampling each other, if someone choked on their food?  Would you?  Nope, thought not.  It's regrettable even shocking but it doesn't affect you.

    @Alester Florent  Tyrion is not a random schmuck but he is in very low standing with both Joffrey, who loathes and ridicules him at every step, and with Tywin after his threats to harm Tommen who he held as a hostage in his power struggle with Cersei.  He is expected to ride a pig at Joffery's feast for the amusement of the guests and his own humiliation and has a drink poured over him by a furious king.  He is very much a peripheral court character and dispensable.  Nevertheless, my point, which I hope is clear, was that Sansa cannot escape unnoticed unless there is a major panic / pandemonium / stampede for the exits and this simply doesn't happen with Tyrion's death the way it does with the king's because people won't flee.  The quotes I put above for the guests' reaction to Joffrey's death simply do not fit the death of Tyrion and this problem can clearly be seen in advance by any plotters.

  7. 19 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

    Be it the king, or be it a random servant, people will try to help them and people would run away scared. Tyrion is the master of coin, former hand, apparent heir to Casterly Rock and to some, savior of the city. His death would create chaos anyway.

    Tyrion is small potatoes, not the people or court favourite you make him out to be.  The books make this very clear.

    A random servant?  Let's be serious.  It's the King's wedding celebration in a feudal monarchy, you absolutely don't have an equivalent reaction if a servant or the king are taken ill. All men are not equal here (very much not).

    People around Joffrey will watch him fire his crossbow at the starving smallfolk or watch a man who denied his legitimacy be executed right in the throne room by Meryn Trant (after the battle of the Blackwater) without running for the exits. 

    Tyrion has no friends or allies even among his own family (Bronn and Shagga don't count - the latter playing bandit in the Kingswood anyway) and he is not considered the saviour of KL, that's Tywin and the Tyrells who broke the siege.  The smallfolk think things were better before he took charge, he's the twisted monkey demon mocked for collecting the dwarf's penny and absurdly grateful when Garlan pays him a compliment about the part he played in defending the city.  He's also the king's detested uncle who is humiliated at every turn, doused with a chalice and ordered to ride a pig at his wedding feast.

    Tyrion's death is not going to cause any kind of uproar or confusion, certainly not anything remotely near enough for Sansa, his wife and a hugely valuable hostage to just float out of the Feast Room, The Red Keep and KL.  Only the king's death can create enough of a stampede, a pandemonium (the author's words) to allow Sansa to be forgotten and unnoticed long enough to escape.

  8. 18 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

    This has already been adressed tho, in the chaos and confusion of someone being poisoned it wouldn't be hard for her to sneak out

    Someone =/= The King.  She isn't sneaking out, she's hidden in the crowd.  This pandemonium simply doesn't happen if the target is Tyrion.  Most particularly the dying man's wife trying to get away attracts attention when everyone else is staying put.

    I think you proved my point about subjectivity and objectivity.  Maybe I do too :D

    A Storm of Swords - Tyrion VIII

    He is going to die, Tyrion realized. He felt curiously calm, though pandemonium raged all about him. They were pounding Joff on the back again, but his face was only growing darker. Dogs were barking, children were wailing, men were shouting useless advice at each other. Half the wedding guests were on their feet, some shoving at each other for a better view, others rushing for the doors in their haste to get away.
    A Storm of Swords - Tyrion VIII
    Margaery Tyrell was weeping in her grandmother's arms as the old lady said, "Be brave, be brave." Most of the musicians had fled, but one last flutist in the gallery was blowing a dirge. In the rear of the throne room scuffling had broken out around the doors, and the guests were trampling on each other. Ser Addam's gold cloaks moved in to restore order. Guests were rushing headlong out into the night, some weeping, some stumbling and retching, others white with fear. It occurred to Tyrion belatedly that it might be wise to leave himself.
    22 hours ago, Sandy Clegg said:

    Ha, I know the feeling. I suspect you may have already waded where you only meant to paddle, with this comment. ;)

    Word :cheers:

  9. @Sandy Clegg @CamiloRP

    I think it's okay to not like a theory for subjective rather than objective reasons but it's quite amusing that this list of theories turned into a rather in depth debate about the merits of one or two. 

    It's fiendishly difficult to disprove something, particularly when the evidence is a pov narrated work of creative fantasy and some people require forensic, water tight rebuttals of their takes on things and if that's not forthcoming they'll insist GRRM is going to reveal what they have been saying at some future point.

    So, I'll just make one observation rather than wading into this again. 

    Sansa can and does escape in the general panic to flee the hall after Joffrey's death, quite literally swept up and unnoticed in the crowd and the confusion.  If the planned victim is Tyrion, the husband she is sat beside and no stampede for the exit ensues, how does she escape unnoticed?

  10. 14 hours ago, Ser Duncan of Flea Bottom said:

    Thanks mate! :D

    I do like the idea of Jon being the son of Brandon and Ashara, even though I know this theory tends to be seen as farfetched. It is hard to have a lot of ideas considering we don't have the exact timeline on how things went, but I suspect Brandon had his time with Ashara him being who he is.

    But why would she hand over her child to Ned and why would Ned pass the child off as his bastard rather than his brother's bastard to the detriment of his marriage and reputation?  And what did he promise Lyanna?

    8 hours ago, Tai Pan said:

    The better theory is Artur Dayne fathered Jon Snow on Lyanna Stark. 

    How is this better?  There is no evidence for it at all.

  11. On 4/1/2024 at 3:29 PM, Son of Man said:

    The weirwood trees in Westeros hold the souls of the sacrificial victims.  The White Walkers are changed humans where the resurrected souls are now residing.  I don't think just any human could be turned to become a new home for one of the souls stored in the weirwood.  The supply of wildlings is endless but the process require a specific family DNA.  Preston Jacobs reasoned that bastard kids were sacrificed in the north.  I say only specific bastards can be turned to White Walkers.  Those coming from Craster and those from the Night's King.  I believe the Night's King came from House Stark.  So the White Walkers are dead Starks who got resurrected.  The trees are altars as well where the people worship the Old Gods and feed them blood.  The OG are the Greenseers feeding on the blood of the sacrifice.  Stark babies can be turned to make them suitable vessels for the resurrected.  Sacrifice was mainstream in the north.

    I think this is probably back to front.  The CotF worshipped the weirwoods because they formed a symbiotic-cultural relationship with them some time in their past with the Singers or other Children being enthroned in the weirwood roots to form the ancestral memory / cultural repository of the community.  There is no need for sacrifices to feed the weirwoods because the enthroned Singers are in effect that sacrifice but in a symbiotic rather than predatory relationship.  Other Singers might briefly pass a second life or the shadow of one in the ravens that were originally used as messenger birds by the CotF.

    The First Men warred with the CotF and cut down the weirwoods as they knew they were important to their enemy and the source of their power. Eventually some humans converted to worshipping the weirwoods and they seem to have adopted or perhaps adapted human sacrifice (the Ironborn offer victims to The Drowned God, the Red Priests to R'hllor, so it's quite possible the First Men practiced human sacrifice before encountering the CotF) but in a sense by mimicking what they thought the Cotf were doing, or by "honouring the Gods" the only way they knew how.

    But misunderstanding the practices of the CotF does not give The First Men the ability to create new (resurrected) "life" or a sacrificial victim the ability to become a warg and "live" a second life.  Cultural imitation or misplaced rites of worship by early First Men, magical Starks or otherwise, did not create The Others.

  12. 19 hours ago, Club-foot cleft-lips said:

    no, not really

    if a westerosi direwolf is around the size or even somewhat bigger than a pony, and lets for example use a scottish highland pony as a prototype (or another of the largest pony breeds), that would put it in a size range of 130-150 cm in height, and approximately 170-195 centimeter length range. given the average proportions and weight of real wolves, that would put a direwolf in the weight range of 90-100kg. maybe up to 100-120kg a bit more with that big head and all. generously we could go up to 200 kg.

    I'm no expert but the GRRM described it as bigger than Bran's pony.  Is Bran's pony small because he's still quite young or is it typical for whatever breed of pony it might be?  We can't really know.  Asking the internet, that most reliable and constant of sources, how much a pony weighs I found 1) Ponies are smaller [than horses] and can range from a Shetland pony at 180–200kg to a larger breed like the fell pony at 350–450kg (Town and Country) and 2) ponies usually weigh between 771 lbs to 992 lbs (350 kg to 450 kg) (Equishop). 

    We can try and translate that to a wolf's physique but it's not something we'll ever be able to compare against the notional cave lion of Westeros as we don't actually know the size of either.  It's fun to speculate but up in the air.  Unless Nymeria meets one at some point :fencing:

  13. On 4/3/2024 at 8:23 PM, BlackLightning said:

    Well to be fair, wasn't Catelyn was originally supposed to be imprisoned and used as a hostage?

    Yes, at least that is what Tywin tells Tyrion but what I was deriding was this line of thinking about The Red Wedding:

    "Cat killed Aegon Frey and they killed her for it. It was even. She then comes back and starts killing more. Her sins increase and so does her punishment.".

    It's like The Red Wedding never happened and Cat just killed poor Jinglebell out of the blue and is now sinning against the noble and innocent House Frey for just no fathomable reason whatsoever.  Just totally wild, right, how can we make sense of this?  :D


  14. 14 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

    The sigils rank the families in order of power hierarchy.  Power usually determine social and political rank in any place.

    The sigils are evocative and have stories attached to them relating to the House, it's history and it's place in it's ancestral lands (Grapes for Redwynes, Towers for Freys or Hightowers, the leaping trout of the Tullys of Riverrun, the Giant of The Umbers, the Falcon of the Arryns, etc...).  Any power hierarchy is a droll but meaningless kind of user-driven game of top trumps or more likely, a kind of e-sports team cheering exercise (our sigil is way better than yours, mwahaha, losers!).

    The Rose of the Tyrells and the Green hand of the Gardeners are far less imposing than more martial sigils and that has no bearing on relative power.  Different regions have different traditions too: the North has a lot of animal symbols in it's heraldry - Bull Moose of Hornwoods, Direwolf of Starks, Bear of Mormonts - while the Reach has a lot of farming / growing symbols - Golden Rose of Tyrells, Grapes of Redwyne, Red / Green Apples of the Fossoways.  Obviously the Reach is larger and more powerful militarily; all the sigils do is give a bit of texture and colour to the landscape and history. 

  15. On 3/29/2024 at 2:49 PM, FantasyCreature said:

    - Secret Identities 

    1. Coldhands is... yep, Benjen Stark. Please. It's been disproved over and over again.
    2. Melisandre is actually Shiera Seastar. Too far-fetched... and I'm pretty sure she wouldn't have that reaction when she saw Bloodraven in the flames.
    3. The dusky woman is Euron's spy, or even better, Euron Greyjoy himself. Wow, excellent. At least being a spy is plausible. As for Euron... More incest, anyone?
    4. Speaking of Euron: Euron Greyjoy is Daario Naharis. What, can the guy teleport or something?

    Please, everyone knows Benjen is Daario :D.  But, seriously, nice post and welcome!

    The only areas I would differ is that 1) I think Tyrion being romantically involved with Penny is the best thing that could happen to him (so it won't) as it would allow him a meaningful relationship instead of pursuing an obsession over a traumatised Tysha, a bitter enmity against Cersei or lusting after teen Dany (likely his next development) and 2) although I don't subscribe to it I think there is a smidgeon of a possibility that Sansa poisoned Joffrey.

    4 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

    David Lightbringer's hypothesis - the first I came across after reading the full corpus. I still like it; it's not about the origin of dragons per se; it's a rational, 'scientific' astronomical/geological explanation for various events now related in myth and legend.

    I think every culture would have myths and legends about a second moon if there really had been one in the timeframe of human memory. IIRC the in world evidence for the second moon is an argument between Dany's handmaids which boils down to "strawhead" slave Doreah saying the second moon hatched the dragons while the Dothraki pair Irri and Jiqhui laugh at her ignorance and say the sun and moon are husband and wife.  I don't think we're meant to give either story any credence.  If GRRM has added more in his published pseudo-histories and mythos then there might be something to it but if not it feels like an intelligent but unsupported hypothesis.

  16. Lord, I'm torn on this. 

    Part of me says it's clearly the bantam rooster of House Swyft, followed narrowly by the white lamb of House Stokeworth.

    But another part of me thinks the purple unicorn of House Brax might just style out the win from the pink maiden of House Piper.

  17. 23 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

    He's forced to dose the kid against his will and then, when delivering an ultimatum, the response we get is "We'll see what your boss says." Colemon is bartering with people far more powerful than him. And more to the point, she doesn't give any option of back talk. She immediately leaves the room he's in and tells herself she and LF have larger concerns than the boy in the same chapter that LF tells her to be careful around Myranda Royce, which she repeats to herself multiple times. 

    She clearly thinks the longer term effects on SR are worth the short term safety for herself.

    She doesn't understand the long term effects on Robert (and nor do we) as they aren't explained beyond "it remains in the flesh".  She clearly believes the unspecified risk to him is outweighed by the short term benefit of getting him down the mountain (and a possible second dose to get him through the feast).  She clearly understands the importance of him getting down the mountain alive and not having a fit in front of his bannermen (from whom he is all but hidden at The Eyrie in the normal course of events) but at no point in any of this is she dosing him because she feels threatened and sees dosing him a way of keeping herself safe.  And her safety relies on keeping him alive and LF in power as his protector, surely.

    Colemon can refuse and say it's too risky and then explain why.  If she told him to give Robert The Tears of Lys or The Strangler he would say no.  It's true that he agrees against his better judgment because he understands the medical risks and she doesn't but he does agree.  She leaves after he agrees to two doses, the point he makes is there must be no further doses after that for a period of six months.  And no one is there to guide his hand to administer it.  If he really thinks it's too dangerous he can opt not to.

    In terms of short term safety for herself I suppose, yes, you could argue that she would not have got him across the ice bridge without fitting without sweetsleep so she was percipient to push Colemon for the first dose.  Otherwise they would both be dead.  That's the kind of circumstance that might warrant a further does of sweetsleep within six months despite Colemon's warnings.  What happens in this hypothetical situation is all in the future.

    Beyond that I guess we'll agree to disagree.

  18. 14 hours ago, Darth Sidious said:

    It is from a scene where Sansa was informed of the dangers of giving the boy more of the sedating drug. She decides to proceed while knowing the danger. She knowingly endangers the life of the child.

    My man, read the passages again and show me where Colemon tells Sansa that giving Robert sweetsleep is endangering his life.  What he tells her is that "it remains in the flesh" and that he must not be prescribed more until six months have elapsed, after the two doses which he agrees to, sets the dosage of and administers himself.  This after he has questioned Sansa on Robert's physical condition - nosebleeds - to determine whether it is safe to administer these two doses.  Presumably he reviews Robert's physical condition before the feast to decide whether the second dose is safe or even necessary at all.

    What Sansa knows is that sweetsleep has both benefits and side effects.  What a thirteen year old knows of the dangers is what Maester Colemon tells her, which is precious little, other than that they must be careful not to administer too much or too often.

    To say she knowingly endangers his life is wrong.  To say so while ignoring her leading him over the ice bridge on the descent that same day is myopic.

    1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

    And that nuance rendered moot when she tells him to administer more later that night or soon thereafter.

    It's really not.  He warns vaguely of side effects but not specifics and not clearly and he agrees to two doses, saying there must be no more after that for six months.  If it's going to risk killing him Colemon would come right out and say it, surely? 

    If on the other hand you subscribe to the view that Colemon knows he is killing him then by all means argue that Colemon doesn't want to implicate himself and suspects that "Alayne" is in on it too but pretending ignorance so Colemon can be framed for doing it while the instigators, LF / "Alayne"', plead ignorance and assert that he is the maester responsible for Robert's care.  In other words they are dancing round each other in this scene.

    But from her pov what she knows of sweetsleep and how it works (hell, what we know) is very little, nothing at all really until Colemon gives a veiled and partial disclosure.  Thirteen year old Sansa, given the responsibility of getting Robert down the mountain and looking his best for his bannermen, has a powerful medicine that can help with all that and some vague warnings about not prescribing too much or too often - and a maester who agrees to two doses rather than telling her he won't do that because of a lethal risk to Robert.

    If he ever tells her that then there's a conversation to be had.  But right now it's like milk of the poppy, something to be given in certain circumstamnces but not too much or too often.

  19. 10 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

    The exact quotes are a page or two back but once in the eyrie for the descent and then two more at gates of the moon (?) for the feast and when he meets his banner man. Then when the maester tells her no more for at least six months she says “we’ll see what my dad says” and drops the mic. 

    As far as I can see there is one conversation at The Eyrie about getting Robert Arryn down the mountain and through the subsequent feast/dinner without a shaking fit.  You are correct that Sansa advocates for a cup of sweetmilk before the descent and a second before the dinner but this is a total of two doses.  Something which Colemon agrees to it must be noted, if reluctantly, which hardly sets an alarm bell ringing that this is poisoning him.  It's a medical treatment with side effects that confer risks that don't appear to outweigh the benefits to her non-medical mind.  The dosage is of course left to Colemon.  Does he receive the second dose and what if any is Sansa's involvement beyond the suggestion at The Eyrie that morning?

    Colemon says there must be no more for at least half a year after this and she says he will have to take it up with her father but that last remark invites the understanding that it would be conditional on circumstances arising where sweetmilk would be necessary or advocated for rather than administered as a routine prescription dose.  If his fits get worse and he injures himself they may have to decide on treatment vs no treatment despite the greater risk of administering it.  No one can predict the future and events may force a choice to be made.

    I really don't see this as evidence of Sansa deliberately embarking on a programme of upping the frequency and dosage of his medication despite being warned against it - as the poster I originally eye-rolled at presented it as.  I see why some people project this forward to see Sansa becoming LF's protégé "Alayne" in truth or perhaps an independent yet darker version of herself but this is conjecture for the future not something to be presented in the present tense.

  20. 6 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

    She doesn't order higher doses, but she does order additional doses with the implication there will probably be more. So with the sweet sleep not leaving the flesh, it will have a more detrimental effect.

    When does she order or administer additional doses?

  21. On 3/19/2024 at 2:04 AM, JoyfulJoy said:

    Okay it seems I need to qualify, I did not make things clear enough, so that's on me.

     I was not meaning anyone who thought that Sansa either directly or indirectly kill Sweetrobin, but rather a select group of people here, I think either some of them might be trolls, or even the "fan who really hates the starks and loves Dany" that I've read about.

    This thread did actually start as a Stark hate thread (there are a number of posters who regularly start or join threads bashing Arya, Jon, Sansa, Bran and Cat and you'll notice who they are in time) but morphed into a pretty good discussion of where GRRM might be heading with the Alayne persona.

    Sansa ONCE pushing for sweetsleep on the day they need to get Robert down the mountain (that day of all days) does not a cousin murderer make.  Indeed she spends a great deal of time at The Eyrie looking after him and pitying him.  I find it particularly surprising that people ignore that it's the same day that she advocates for a pinch of sweetsleep that she leads him across the narrow ice bridge at considerable risk to herself.  He fits immediately afterwards.  We can legitimately ask if he survives this without sweetsleep. Or whether she does.  It's a one-off measure in an extremely time critical situation - they have to get down the mountain right away or they'll be trapped; almost all of the servants and guards have already gone and the weather is closing in.

    The reason it's a hot topic is Sansa's internal thoughts in her Alayne persona sometimes appear to be aligning with LF's worldview which opens up the possibility of her becoming LF's child rather than Cat & Ned's child.  The girl who responded to Cersei's advice to make the people fear her with the thought "I will make them love me instead" seems to me no more likely to heed LF's ruthless, manipulative, cynical and murderous advice than Cersei's.  But just like she played a part in Joffrey's Court in KL - "I don't have the traitor blood", "I'm a good girl" etc... - she's playing a part in The Vale as LF's daughter.  Unlike in KL where she could hope for Robb's victory or the promise of "Come to the godswood if you want to go home" she has no such hope in The Vale so her options seem even more limited.  It's this, I think, which leads the non-Stark-haters to believe she will be caught in LF's trap and become his pawn. 

    I think Robert Arryn is just as likely to be the means by which the Sansa / Alayne dilemma and LF's hold over Sansa could be resolved as she decides once again to protect the innocent or helpless Robert (as with Dontos on Joffrey's birthday).  But GRRM has isolated her so effectively he'll have to write in some means for her to escape this bind (Bronze Yohn Royce (who almost recognised her), Lady Waynwood, or even a missing Blackfish returning to The Vale to seek support; plus the Lannister disintegration at KL and the Bolton collapse in The North making a good time for a Stark heir to re-emerge).  That of course puts her back in the position of people competing over her for her claim, the last thing she wants, but none of the characters have ever really had good choices.

  22. Honestly no one is definitely safe but I would be surprised if Tyrion, Bran or Arya died.  Likewise I think Sansa, Jon and Sam will survive. 

    Asha and Davos are probable survivors but expendable. 

    Arianne and Theon are possibilities as are The Hound, Meera and Jojen Reed, Hodor, Ghost and Summer.

    Dany, Jaime, Cersei, Euron, Victarion, Aeron, JonCon and Stannis, Doran, Tommen, Myrcella, Margery, Loras, multiple Sand Snakes, (F)Aegon, Selyse, Shireen and Jorah Mormont are all toast.  Varys and LF too.

    Areo Hotah: would we even notice either way?  That axe has more personality.

  23. Nah, he, Rorge and Biter very nearly burn to death in that wagon.  It's pure luck (for them) that Arya happens to come by heading for the tunnel and throw them the axe.  They are seconds away from dying.

    And Jaqen is serious about repaying those three lives.  He hangs around Harrenhall for ages to repay them and nearly bricks himself when Arya tells him his is the third name.

    I think the simplest explanation for Jaqen is as a character with a formative role in Arya's arc and development.  The Black Cells, his being bound in the wagon, his mysterious purpose in KL in the first place are all pretty irrelevant.  GRRM is a gardener and put in a cool character with a specific story role (re Arya) and a blank space backstory he cold fill in if and when he desired and then expanded his role with another mysterious purpose off in Oldtown - one which will be explained more clearly we imagine.  Maybe he'll tie those purposes together but like Syrio or Yoren (or The Hound) he's one of Arya's protectors who are stripped away or abandon her one after the other and it's what he's up to now that matters.

    I can't see much reason to hire him to off Ned who never wanted the Handship, already tried to resign once and once he's agreed to take the Black his honour will hold him there.  The reason Jaqen goes north is because the author wants to use him in Arya's story not to strike at a target at WF or The Wall (places he does not subsequently visit).

  24. 2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

    Your meaning is incorrect.

    I am using the dictionary meaning.  You are either misunderstanding the word or twisting it for some bizarre reason to suit your own purposes.  You can repeat this line of argument ad nauseam (and it seems you will) but it just seems rather silly.

    2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

    This is 100 percent borne out by the text. It is the actual, verifiable and confirmed situation in the realm. I think you are confusing "borne out by the text" with "outright stated." But there are all kinds of truths in asioaf that are not stated, starting with RLJ. If you can't accept that, then there is nothing more to say.

    No, it's not.  The Tyrells are on the up in alliance with House Lannister.  They are not afraid of utter extermination at the hands of House Lannister and instead intend to play the game smartly and surpass them in influence and power.  Tywin has no intention of getting into a conflict with the Tyrells, whom he needs, let alone exterminating them.  They know this very well.  So does the reader.

    You are making a wild exaggeration and rather mind-bogglingly insisting that it's fact.  That doesn't fly.

    2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

    He is unreachable. He is at the center of the head table, right next to Cersei and the Tyrells and the king and the queen, where all eyes will be focused all night long. It would be very odd for Lady Olenna to be camped out there, in plain view of everyone, rather than way down the side, out of sight from nearly the entire room.

    He is not nailed to his seat.  And if he were he would still be reachable.  Particularly if someone had decided to, ooh, I don't know, slip a bit of poison in his pigeon pie, maybe?  I think someone had an idea that might have happened to someone at the wedding somehow. :rolleyes:

    2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

    But as I went on to explain, which you continue to ignore, is that the fact remains that killing Tywin does not solve anything right now. The point here is to keep House Lannister from getting the north. Only Tyrion's death and Sansa's extraction can do that.

    I don't see any factual inaccuracy or misrepresentation in this statement of yours hence I had no further comment.  I don't agree with your reasoning as I've already said but I don't see any reason to argue over it.

    2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

    Lol, you haven't refuted anything. The Reach is the most powerful house, militarily and economically. It has been this way for thousands of years. They do have the largest army. They do not have any natural barriers to speak of. Tywin's command of practically the rest of the kingdom does pose a grave threat, because the Reach has no other way of defending itself. This is not rhetoric. These are facts, unambiguous, clearly stated facts right from the text. The only thing this discussion proves is that some people are better at drawing conclusions from actual facts than others.

    This is funny.  You seem unable or unwilling to focus specifically on what I am saying and are just repeating yourself.  You know exactly what three statements of yours I am referring to and none of them are correct as I have pointed out to you in very clear and simple terms.  The Reach is an ally, not a target of the Lannisters so it's all very interesting to hear your geo-political analysis and your inferred wisdom that everyone in The Reach is quaking in their boots at the thought of Tywin, Destroyer of Worlds, turning on them next and unleashing Armageddon but it's not at all true.  It's quite funny seeing you push this so doggedly.

    2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

    Sure, everyone can pitch their own ideas, but not their own facts. And the vast majority of facts used to support the wine are completely imaginary. So it is not just my take, it is the only conclusion drawn from actual, verifiable facts in the text, not just words. Realize that.

    Hmm...  You rely on Joffrey saying it's the pie.  Is that a verifiable fact in your view?  I hope you realise he might be wrong about this.  No, please don't give me a long boring response about how it could only possibly be in the pie.  You've done that for years.  I know you think that but the issue is other people don't.

    And do you mean verifiable facts like Olenna's dread of The Reach being sown with the skulls of Tyrell infants? :)

    3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

    We don't need an "additional motivation" for Petyr's self-preservation. The embezzlement alone is enough. Nobody is going to give a rat's ass if Tyrion, without proof, claims that Petyr lied about the dagger, especially when he was not even present to hear what was actually said. And since multiple people can attest to the fact that Robert won the dagger, not Tyrion, then this whole story is laughable.

    You do realise that comment was not even addressed to you, yes?  And that is was a supplementary comment in support of motivations for LF to act rather than a refutation or an argument against the motivations mentioned?  In any case, whether you are too narrow-minded to see it or too adversarial to admit it, it is indeed an additional motivation for LF to want Tyrion dead.  But, fill your boots, for a second time no less, acting as if this has been presented as the sole or principal motivation for LF to act, it seems you find it satisfying creating a strawman to attack.

    3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

    This is the conclusion drawn from the actual facts. We could avoid this pointless clutter if you could accept the facts as they are, not how you wished they were.

    This isn't based on actual facts.  This is your conclusion drawn from your interpretation of character motivations, motivations which you have inferred as founded on an unspeakable dread within House Tyrell that they face extermination at Tywin's hands.  No such fear of extermination is borne out in the books and is a wild allegation based on the nascent Tyrell - Lannister competition; in fact it goes beyond that into pure invention.  Expounding on the geography or population density of The Reach doesn't create the dread of such apocalyptic destruction whether you think it should or wish it did.  Sorry, but there it is.

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