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lrresistable

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  1. I don't think Robert would kill him for telling the truth. Especially once he conveys that he went to Jon Arryn first, and that he was murdered after receiving the info. He was pre-emptively gathering swords. That can't be disputed at this point. In fact, we know from Cressen / Davos as soon as we get Stannis chapters on Dragonstone just how long they've been gathering their strength for. Stannis's actions make no logical sense unless he is waiting for Robert to get murdered, and is preparing for war in the fallout. Ned summons him to King's Landing multiple times. I'm not disputing that Stannis did well by Robert. He did more by Robert than almost any brother would have. But the man Robert is by Game of Thrones isn't the same man. A glutton, a drunk, a man who takes whores to bed every day other day. He beggars the Realm and thinks only of his base pleasures. He neglects his children and doesn't take Joffrey to hand, even after he tortures animals. He does not even look after his bastards, that is left to his administrators Varys & Jon Arryn.. He does no governing and only cares for himself and his wants. He is quite contemptible, and you can understand why Stannis was done with him at this point. Every man has a limit. I have put myself in his shoes, and his protestations that he doesn't want the Throne fall short. He could have chosen to abdicate in favor of Renly, who had huge groundswell support and was set to sweep the Lannisters without him. He does want the Throne, and he wants Renly to do him duty as his young brother, as he did Robert. The only problem is Stannis didn't keep true to Robert when he needed him most, so it becomes hypocritical of him to ask for Renly's subservience. Unless someone can explain why he called the banners on his liege-lords to consolidate an army, why he's hiring swords and sellsails, why he took the Royal Fleet, why he ignores Ned's summons, why he doesn't at least co-ordinate with Renly, why he blockades Dragonstone and goes radio silent, why he doesn't bring his force down on the Lannisters or to King's Landing before his death, and why he doesn't tell Robert that he's in danger, at least by some proxy. He has so many options, yet he keeps waiting.
  2. While i resent your claim that Stannis shouldn't be in fear for his life, seeing as he brang his suspicions to Jon Arryn, who investigated the matter as an impartial on his behalf, then he conveniently ends up dead soon after. And we know Pycelle, a Lannister lackey, makes sure he dies on his death-bed. It does seem that once Robert decided to head North to seek Ned and bestow the Handship upon him, this was the final straw that made him take most of the Royal Fleet and leave King's Landing and Robert to his fate with the Lannisters. And that's all but confirmed when he's sits around waiting for him to die while gathering his vassal-Lords to prepare for war and hiring sellswords. The only part i don't get is the months of peace the Realm while this is all happening. It seems GRRM has made errors regarding Stannis in his early writing back in Game of Thrones. The main one being, if he's waiting for Robert to die, why isn't he seeking out the bastards to prove his claim? Robert had like 17 of them, some of them very well-known. Mya would've been easy to bring to Dragonstone. Edric is noble-born on both sides, and he could invite him to Dragonstone for a visit. We're assume he's aware of Gendry as Jon has him as part of his evidence he would bring to Robert. Stannis effectively sits there and stews, brooding on Dragonstone. It's only after he dies that he seems to start sending Davos & his men off to try gather support. I'm going to write it off as a plot device by our author so he doesn't get the support he desperately needs and has to confront Renly later on at Storm's End. As for why he didn't park his army down from Dragonstone and bring the revelation to Ned (who had almost worked it out by the time when he was Hand), that's pretty clear too. Even if Robert had believed him & Ned and went to war with the Lannisters, which they would have decisively won, Robert still would've remarried and produced an heir not long after. He'd be in his late 30's by then, but more than capable of producing children. Stannis still wouldn't get his hands on the Throne, even if he had been named heir. The conclusion i've come to of him essentially waiting for Robert's death does seem to directly contradict the character. Or at least the one he portrays himself to be. He talks about his duty to Robert, how he always did his duty, and that Renly should do his duty by him. Yet at the end, when Robert is a shadow of his former self, he's done with him. So much for duty. He talks of not coveting the Throne, yet it's his by rights, so if he doesn't want it, why not pass it over to Renly and be his Hand? GRRM has explicitly stated he's changing a couple character arcs of players who have died in the show. I think this means now more than ever, that Stannis will end up on the side of the Others. Especially seeing as he's all but certainly going to be the first line of defence when The Wall comes down.
  3. Not really. Aegon had a dragon. Most of the Targs had dragons back then. That was just Maegor straight up usurping the Throne. Also, there's no need to downplay Dany birthing dragons from her fossil eggs. Even if we take everything at face value with fAegon (which i'm sure George R.R Martin would disapprove of) The Targ's aren't even the legitimate rulers of Westeros anymore. The Throne will have to be taken. I think after Preston Jacob's Page of Lies series, it's possible Dany isn't even legitimate. Maybe a bastard of Aerys & Ashara. Or a baby swap happened at Starfall and she is Rhaegar's child. And i think she'll be dead by the time the books finish anyway. But i also think it's beyond clear she's the real Targaryen claimant. The dragons have irrefutably proved it. Even though by the time of ADwD she's treating them like absolute shit. Whether this Aegon is a Brightflame, or son of Illyrio by Serra who could be a Blackfyre from the female line (most likely given his attachment toward him), or hell, even a distant relation of Saera Targaryen. If i want to be mean, could just be a by-blow off a Lyseni whore of pure Valyrian stock. We don't know. All we know is that we're asked to question the official narrative. It's not just circumstantial. I won't go into all the textual evidence it as it's been covered extensively by the board already, but the majority of readers are of the belief that he's not what he's purported to be. Though it's clear he thinks he's Truegon, and i won't fault him for being lied to. Followed inside Illyrio's Manse? No. It's confirmed by Robert / the small council that "the usurpers knives" never followed them trying to assassinate them, though i'm 100% sure they were followed by others. Viserys would've been killed off by Illyrio if he didn't die on the Dothraki Sea. He's just a pawn. Seems kind of weird to hold 3 Targaryen's and never tell the other 2 about him. But it could be true, if the plan was Dany & Drogo's Dothraki horde was supposed to weaken Westeros & then Aegon was supposed to come in with the Golden Company to clean house? The idea of sacrificing the 2 Targaryen's to weaken the 7 Kingdoms then the Blackfyre heir who just ended their line comes in, passing himself off as a Targaryen Prince, invades with the Golden Company. Thematically sounds like our author.
  4. Jon is a bastard, Bloodraven is a bastard, Aemon is dead and took NW vows anyway? Prince Aegon is most likely the 1 presented in the Throne Room by Tywin for Robert. It's heavily implied this Aegon Illyrio produced is a pretender. If he wasn't, why not introduce him to Viserys & Dany pre Game of Thrones? Jon's claim of being a trueborn would still be dubious at best. Even if records miraculously appeared showing Rhaegar & Lyanna as married. Dany's dragons mark her as the undisputed champion & heir worthy of House Targaryen, giving her the best claim even if Jon was a true-born.
  5. How is this important? He's the guy guarding what Rhaegar told him to guard. You reckon he told his family about the heir at the ToJ? It's entirely possible for them to reasonably infer this without Gerold explicitly telling them that, though, true. This is another stretch if you're suggesting the Hightowers are trying to get close to Jon / the Starks. Bear Island has virtually no closeness or special ties to the Starks, and the Lord Commander rarely, if ever leaves The Wall. And the Starks rarely travel up to The Wall. I don't think Hightower could have foreseen Jon signing his life away to The Watch either. Unless you're suggesting the Hightowers knew or suspected the Other's were coming back? If that was the case though you'd think they'd send a shit ton of fighting men up there to aid The Watch. What are you getting at here? Satin is a spy because he was from Oldtown? Does he have access to Aemon's rookery to send ravens?
  6. He knew his wars in the South were doomed, that's why he went to The Wall and picked up the fight there against the Wildlings / Others. Interesting that you see it as reinvention. I saw it as resignation. He knows he's done. This isn't him reinventing himself, it's him showing his true self. He has a bad hand precisely because people in power do not like him. Especially schemers like Baelish, the Tyrells etc are the forefront of his opposition. That speaks volumes itself. His bad hand might even have him end up as a lieutenant for the Others, or a Night's King figure.
  7. Was she? Was he? What new powers are we talking about here? All things being considered, Hightower is the most prestigious House that isn't a Great House. There's just about a thousand other powerful lordlings who would jump at the chance to marry a pretty girl like her.
  8. That we find him slaking his lusts on a 'beautiful silver-haired whore' after he gets dismissed by Dany says a lot. I also think it's sound to say he never got that dowry from the Hightowers. Yep, no way they would be as big as what the Hand's Tourney was. Stark was going on about how they'd beggar the realm with that kind of prize-money. Besides Flowers, this is a bit of a stretch. Hightower was Aerys Lord Commander of the Kingsguard and did jack shit for Rickard & Brandon when they died horrifically. Got cut down later by Ned at ToJ, but there wasn't much productive Hightower - Stark talking going down there if almost everyone died. Lynesse being given over to Mormont made no sense at all. Unless it has something to do with the glass candles and rumours of Lleyton Hightower practicing sorcery.
  9. Lynese isn't a slave. Jorah never sold her into slavery. She jumped ship to the rich prince (rightly so), who took on Jorah's debts and told him to kick rocks or he'd call in the debt on him You really think so? Given his devotion to Daenerys, which i assume would be similar to what he had for Lynese, i find this incredibly hard to believe. The selling her into sex slavery part i mean. The Hightowers are fucking loaded. Probably the richest House after the Lannisters. Possibly even as wealthy by the time of book 5 with Cersei blowing cash left and right. Ormellon is just 1 rich merchant prince guy. Her Hightower brother just wants help from them getting contacts for Sellsails as he's not familiar with Lys or how best to do that. Barristan is a simp (Ashara Dayne). More importantly, he's a Kingsguard. Being respectful is kind of his thing. Of course he's skeptical of a 'Squire with a Stick' killing Mero. That's how he finds out who Barristan is. As for him knowing Mero was looking to assassinate her and potentially let him go, i don't believe this at all. Would explain where he got the money for expensive prostitutes. Daenerys is his fantasy, sure. He wants sex from her. Sex slave, his slave might be a bit too far. Do you think he would rape her if he could get away with it?
  10. I don't think Stannis would have as many 'faults' if he hadn't been dealt a shitty hand. Everything is exacerbated because the man feels tormented. His brother announces his Kingship and instantly gets the backing of the Reach (minus Hightowers & Redwynes), his former enemies, and all of the Stormlands (which should have been his) amounting to a 100,000 army. He knows Cersei is a fraud and that Robert's kids were incest spawn, but couldn't / didn't bring that info to Robert (which he likely regrets because he ends up dead.) half his 'Kingdom' has seceded and crowned Robb. He's got literally 0 support. It visibly eats him up inside and makes him seethe. Despite all of this we see a renewed Stannis later on at The Wall that is a remarkable improvement. I got the feeling with the way GRRM wrote Stannis & Renly that if you could combine them into 1 person you'd get a great ruler. Or if they co-ruled with the relationship they should have had, they'd be a unstoppable power-duo.
  11. I don't think it was a slight to begin with, as Stannis was his rightful heir back then. Once he had Joffrey it put him in a bit of bind. He could revoke Renly's titles and hand all of the Stormlands over to Stannis, but the thing is, the Storm Lords will have already sworn oaths of fealty to Renly at that point. Which makes it difficult. Stannis effectively got The Rogue Prince treatment. I think it came down to Renly being more like Robert, and he wanted him to inherit Storm's End.
  12. I'm sure they weren't close, but they served on the Small Council together for years. Renly loves to make fun of people, Stannis more than most, but it's usually easy-going banter. Even after Renly tried to 'usurp' him he still laments that he loved his brother. Yeah, a lot of people back the idea that Robert was slighting Stannis by taking from him his rightful Lordship. The seat of Storm's End and all incomes, lords, smallfolk etc sworn to it is more powerful by far than the heir's seat of Dragonstone. Not to mention he clearly loved his home, and was the one who defended it during the war. I'm not so sure, though. Robert had no legitimate heirs, so he named Stannis as his 2nd in line to the Throne and gave him the Targ seat. Most likely after he defeated the Targaryen fleet and took Dragonstone. It was clearly still early days after their victory and Stannis was of value to him with Ned heading back North. The whole point is Stannis knows they aren't his "niece and nephews", even if he can't prove it to the realm with 100% certainty. I don't think Tywin is dumb enough to fight for Joffrey's claim once Renly is on top of King's Landing with 100,000 men, and Stannis with his bigtime allies in this scenario are surrounding him on all sides. His situation has changed big time. The Whispering Wood will still have happened and Robb holds Jaime. He has little choice but to try secure the lives of his family by agreeing to tell everyone that they are Lannister's. I'm pretty sure it's said in the text multiple times that Stannis keeps his word, and is honorable in the Eddard Stark vein. The Iron Bank wouldn't be so quick to loan him ridiculous levels of money to raise an army if they didn't think he would pay them back and honor Cersei, Joffrey & Robert's debts. If Tywin & Stannis come to an Alliance, Stannis takes a bunch of hostages and they ride for King's Landing. I'm not sure how Robb, The North, Riverlands would feel about these negotiated terms of surrender.. they'd be fighting under the same banner as the Lannisters, even if it means they get disposed from power. Maybe Tywin plots some kind betrayal and withdraws his army and lets Renly & Stannis go at it, but Stannis isn't stupid. He'd have control of the army and would likely put Tywin's forces in the vanguard, frontline to fight Renly and keep his loyal men in reserve. If Tywin & Stannis don't take Renly's army unawares outside King's Landing, similar to how they do in the book, they might think twice before taking on Tywin, Stannis, North, Riverlands and fighters inside KL itself. Stannis & Tywin are feared. Some Stormlanders may even join Stannis. Yet this 100k force still vastly outnumbers the Stannis Tywin Alliance. Robb bought less than 20,000 down with him, and 5,000 of them died fighting Tywin at the Green Folk under Roose, and some are dead, some at the Twins and elsewhere. Stannis around 5,000, i forget River Lord numbers but i'd say around 10,000, and Tywin's host is 20,000. Robb would have about 12,000 of his own men left. If i'm being generous, they would be about 50,000 strong. Twice outnumbered if we don't take into account the (5,000?) defenders in King's Landing, so they'd need to take them unawares. In this timeline, Stafford Lannister's army he's gathering at Oxcross still exists though, i think. If they decide to parlay beforehand I really think Reach Lords like Rowan and Florent won't be happy about fighting 3 Kingdoms that can re-supply themselves backed by 2 juggernauts and will abandon Renly. The Stannis fleet still rules the waters as Cersei holds Redwyne's sons hostage in KL as you said If Stannis & friends keep Tywin besieged at Harrenhal, then it's Tyrion Renly has to contend with in King's Landing. They will hear about Renly bringing his army nearer and nearer down the Rose Road, and judging from him burning thousands of Stannis's men on the Blackwater and wiping out most of his fleet, i assume he'd devise some kind of plan, but it wouldn't be the same kind of success he was able to pull off against Stannis. I don't think he'd be okay with Cersei burning down KL either, unless he's already dead in a Sortie fighting outside the Gates in the book, which he was only doing to give the gold cloaks courage. Renly could put 15,000 on each gate. They won't have any courage. Their best chance they have is escaping by sea, which they won't if Stannis has his blockade. Which he probably will seeing as he has nothing else to do with his fleet if he's bringing a land army to check Tywin. Considering how Stannis came so close to taking the city with his massive losses, Renly could take it with less than 10,000 dead. If the gold cloaks see a literal 100,000 army outside their walls, they might as well just throw down their weapons too. Hell, the gates may even be opened somewhere for Renly to get his army in. In either scenario i don't see Stannis wiping out Tywin. Definitely not by storming Harrenhal. They'd smash themselves upon it and likely lose most of their men at a 2 to 1 ratio or worse. With Stefford Lannister gathering a army of 'green boys and the dregs of Lannisport' they could even clear them off after a failed attack. Anyway, they hold Jaime. King's Landing has fallen or is going to. Stefford Lannister may be gathering an army, but for what? Tywin would be a beaten dog. That's why he'd have to join with Stannis to attack Renly & the Tyrell's outside King's Landing.
  13. I really like those optics of Renly allying with Robert's enemies a lot. But it's almost as if they were Stannis's enemies all along since Robert was off on the war campaign and Stan the Man was holding Storm's End from the combined might of the Reach (minus Hightowers?). Tyrells / his Lords effectively stayed out of the war with this weak excuse and never sent their huge numbers to fight actual armies, or the Alliance likely would've ended up losing the war. How many men and sellswords did Stannis command as Lord of Dragonstone before he went off to fight with Renly? I was under the impression it was just under 5,000 , which isn't alot compared to the armies the Lannister's were fielding during the war. So i guess say he got the Riverland and Northern support, he'd do a blockade of King's Landing with his massive fleet, and combines his forces to face Tywin's might in the Riverlands. Both sides bash each-other to shit, team Stannis comes up on top due to his superior military intellect. This severely weakens him for when he has to play with Renly, assuming his younger brother goes ahead and takes KL, crown's himself, and still has a huge army after taking the capitol. Maybe he'd do guerrilla warfare tactics with Tywin, and wait for Renly to advance on King's Landing, putting severe strain on Tywin to either go defend his family and his 'Lannister dynasty lasting a thousand years' , or abandon them to their fate as Renly's army is just too huge. If Tywin engages, he inflicts severe loses before being smashed, weakening Renly's forces to the point Stannis could take him with the combined might of River Lords & Northerners after the Capitol is taken. If he stays at his stratagem in Harrenhal, and lets King's Landing fall, that changes everything. All his family members will be hostages, and Renly may kill Joff & the kids as Robert was want to do, ending the claimant and setting Stannis as the 'rightful heir' by laws of Westeros. Which leads me to believe if King's Landing was taken by Renly in this other scenario, or Renly is looming to take it, Tywin is forced to negotiate terms with Stannis. Tywin renounces his grandchildren's Iron Throne claims and makes a deal in which he protects his kids, keeps his power and hold of the Westerlands and provides refuge later on at Casterly Rock for the former "Baratheons" who i believe Tywin doesn't know are really Jaime & Cersei's kids. Robb declaring for Stannis really would go well for him imo. I don't think the Storm Lords who supported Renly would like the idea of gunning for Stannis before taking on the Lannister's hold on power. I assume Renly & Stannis were on good terms before he crowned himself, and it was Stannis who needlessly inserted himself into battle with Renly. We don't know how Renly would really feel once Stannis had a mass of support at his back and a legitimate army and base of power at his disposal. His reputation as a commander and Warlord would give him pause, i think.
  14. sorry about getting at you before pissy at you before, I think i said 'Jon' like 5 times so i assume people think i'm hardcore on the Snow takeover of The Watch Yeah, the forum had a lot of debate on if the dragons could pass The Wall back at the time when this info got released. I'm not sold on a magical barrier in that way, which i assume would be to protect the Other's from dragons? Essentially I think the extreme cold in the Lands of Always Winter would be enough to stop dragons from ever rolling up on them up there. They are magical beasts, but they seem to be very much worldly and natural beings. So i'm not sure if repellent, or 'YOU MAY NOT PASS' magic would work on them. In contrast, the Other's seem very much unnatural and snuff out living beings wherever they go and reanimate their corpses to serve them. Dragons do have more to them than just being intelligent and being able to breathe fire in Martin's world. I genuinely think they can instinctively sense other magical beings, know that The Wall is a hinge of the world, and that what lies beyond is not their 'territory' and they are not welcome there. I can definitely see arguments saying 'we drew a line in the sand, this side is Fire, and this side is Ice' Ice can't cross Fire and vice versa, as established by a Pact. It just seems implausible to me as it requires a lot of assumptions to be made. Far from it being canon, but Dany was also able to take her dragons North of The Wall in the show as well. Whereas we know the Other's lurk in the lands beyond The Wall and are a threat, and the dragons likely know this too.
  15. I don't think so. Other's attacks and wildlings sacrificing to them are happening to the Free Folk years before the start of book 1. According to Mance it's only recently gotten much worse and they've ramped it up significantly. I'm attributing the increase in operations to Bloodraven here, not that WW activity was going on before or after he went Far North. I'm saying he is a catalyst for their ramp up in power. Silverwing refused to take Queen Alysanne North of The Wall, even when she pressed her dragon several times to fly her into the beyond. She noted her dragon in any other circumstance always flew her wherever she wanted with no problem That dragon likely sensed the threat out there and knew taking her out was dangerous. So they've likely 'been around' in some fashion even at this time.
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