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About BreakinTheWall

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  1. @Loras : I don't get you. First you decry with unabated contempt something that feels, to you, somehow offensive. But then, you proceed with a number of unproven assertions that hardly address the issue and call out for @The Map Guy's silence in a way that does, ironically, remind one of cancel culture. Are you against free speech? or, perhaps, are you invoking the eggshell skull principle as a way to argue that things you find offensive shouldn't be voiced? Whether or not The Map Guy's justifications support his position, that says very little about the value of his position per se... I, for one, still don't know why you disagree with said position? why you think a cost-benefit analysis of the usefulness of criticizing GRRM's behavior is "out of the question?" why you think the post might be offensive to you or other people in the first place? why you think GRRM publicly apologizing (perhaps as a favor to Worldcon organizers) is indicative of his genuine remorse? why "professionalism" would "for sure" prevent GRRM's morale and focus being negatively affected? why you think criticizing someone's alleged offensiveness on a TWOW 2021 thread is even remotely appropriate? I do hope in the future people like The Map Guy will remain able to express their opinions, and that people like you and I will remain able to challenge their argumentation, yes, but never will I advocate for silence as a way to settle or set aside debates, and certainly not on the basis of my personal ability to be offended. Therefore, I would likewise, and respectfully, invite you to reflect on your own message and the atmosphere it might ultimately bring down on these forums as well. As for me, besides the "scandal", I wonder if the true obstacle to GRRM's progress wasn't agreeing to act as toastmaster in the first place? Yet another distraction in a long string of distractions, that doesn't properly constitute a side-project (such as, say, editing would), yes, but is nonetheless distracting. Alas!
  2. @Werthead: Are you suggesting in addition to predicting chapter counts (total and POV-wise), people also try and guess the average chapter page count (or word count)? I suppose that is entirely equivalent to predicting total page count, although average chapter page count might be easier to "picture". I think that's an excellent idea, as it might confront people with the practical consequences of their own guesses. E.g. if you say a total of 100 chapters each averaging 100 pages, that would make a book that's 10,000 pages long. Obviously this is wrong. Well, that's not my poll, but maybe, just maybe, @The Map Guy would like to update the OP so as to reflect this new dimension?
  3. So, let me get my facts straight. June 23rd, GRRM said on Not a Blog he made steady progress and that the was still a "long way to go." Now, it is July, 19th and he apparently made some more progress, yet the book is now become a "long long way to go"... I think either GRMM is, again, not especially careful with his statements, or he doesn't subscribe to a linear understanding of time. The two aren't mutually exclusive, mind you. Perhaps we should be looking for TWoW in the past, because the more progress is made, the farther away the book is from coming out, ha!
  4. @The Map Guy Hey! Yes those were the 7 people who at the time provided answers to your survey, here on the forum. As 5 more answers came in since the chart was last generated, I took the liberty of updating it. Here's a link to it: https://imgur.com/oF6Om6H. Samwell is now the POV character people most agree upon. Jon, by far, retains its title as the most divisive character, which can partly be explained by the fact that some people must think he's dead, while others don't; some think he'll be brought back (or come back on his own), while others don't; some think he'll come back early, while others don't. To a lesser extent, second most divisive character is Tyrion (or Bran), although I am less inclined to provide ultra specific answers in this case... on one hand, he's GRRM favorite character, but he's in a kind of a weird spot.... I don't know.... By chapter count, it would appear the most important character will be Dany (woot, woot!), and, unsurprisingly, the least important will be Hotah.... (disappointed trumpet sound) With an average total chapter count of 83.25 spread amongst 20 POV characters, this indeed promises to be a large (and very packed), interesting book! Cheers
  5. I happen to know of such a script: simply rename the thread "TWOW in the future seems ever more likely...."
  6. lol, I kinda disagree on this one. He *has* been pumping out pages/chapters/sections like crazy, the only problem is, it very often is the same page/chapter/section per... "sitting". Had each of those been spent writing out different parts, who knows, he might have spewed out the entire encyclopædia britannica 10 times over already*. Wait..... did you mean finished pages? Oh well. :-) *Official page count as of 2010 is, according to the high wisdom of Google, 32640.
  7. @Lord Daedrunk: I agree with most of what you said, with maybe 1 or 2 main exceptions. If Jon is to come back in a "fuller" way than Beric or Cat ever did, I feel that this sort of feat would require something more than just Mel doing her stuff and bringing him back. Hence, perhaps, the need for this gesture of utter selflessness, dutifulness and sacrifice I was alluring to: the free offering of king's blood and one's soul. I guess we'll see, although I'm not sure dying twice and coming back every time is the kind of "plot armor" GRRM endorses. @nickdt: I'm not sure I understand how the "Davos is lightbringer" part makes any sense. You seem to suggest this is prefigured in multiple places in text, but I am unsure what exactly you are referring to... care to expand a bit on that?
  8. Well, to be fair, the books might *not* see completion under George, making 2089 a true possibility, however unlikely or gut-wrenching.... so you see, @Nagini's Neville, if that ever comes true, the prospect of one's death occurring before publication might not be the worst of things after all.... just saying...
  9. Ever heard of the wisdom of the crowds? Maybe our collective answers performs better than any single one... statistical savvy people, you have been served: https://imgur.com/B2mrCYa Characters are presented in increasing order of average chapter count prediction, hence may not respect the survey's original order. Apparently, the most uncertain characters would be Jon and Tyrion. That's interesting, those are far from secondary characters, I would not have guess they would have been so polarizing. But then again, that's measuring the error in "pure numbers", maybe it would be best to measure it relative to the mean. Oh well. Conversely, the character with whom people's predictions most agree is Theon, also very interesting. Funny thing also, some people seem to have included both the prologue and epilogue in their total chapter count, whereas others did not.... that ought to be funny when, if ever, we start compiling results with the publication of TWoW....!
  10. Hey, sorry if this "idea's" already been discussed elsewhere -- I do come here just about everyday, but do not recall it ever being discussed -- but I have had this funny idea about Azor Ahai for, well, years now, and, true or false, I'd like to finally let it go :-) So here it is. We all know about Azor Ahai and the way prophecy drives some characters to act and, in some way, drives the story forward. Now, more specifically, we know that based off "visions" and whatnot, Melisandre used to believe Stannis is/would be Azor Ahai, a sentiment that's apparently been a bit shaken as of late through various inner thoughts such as "I pray for a glimpse of azor ahai but all He shows me is Snow". This got me thinking that perhaps Jon Snow and Stannis are, in a way, both Azor Ahai, but not as two separate entities.... let me explain what I actually mean by that. First, let me state I am in the "Jon is dead/will be ressurected" camp. This matters because: (a) I think Jon is dead; (b) I think Jon needs to be brought back (story-wise); (c) I think Stannis is right in saying that kings need to sacrifice for their kingdoms, not the other way around; (d) I think Melisandre incorrectly interpreting a vision is one thing, but, I think the vision actually "evolving" to suggest one character over the other is quite different, and quite puzzling also; (e) If the show is any indication and I think this could actually give Stannis the proper motivation (or set him up in the right state of mind) to resort to extreme measures to accomplish what he feels is his duty. Thus, in an effort to conjure some story development that would make sense of all of the above, I think that: (a) Stannis will somehow understand that in order for the realm to be saved, Jon must come back; (b) Due to the current circumstances (Jon is dead, like, very dead), through Melisandre's craft, the only way of saving Jon is through the sacrifice of his own soul in a blood magic-ish ritual; (c) Stannis will be in a mental state where he would perform such self-sacrifice willingly; (c) As Stannis soul will fuel Jon's ressurection, and be part of it -- in a way -- Melisandre will have been right in her belief/inklings of belief that both Stannis and Jon were Azor Ahai. Now, I don't know what degree of tinfoilness this constitutes, and quite frankly I don't care, I just thought it could be nice to discuss it. I don't feel this "theory" is perfect in that, at the very least, I am assuming that Jon's continued existence matters, which is far from given (might be wishful thinking on my part, idk). All in all, I feel like all of this has poetic resonance, something which in my book provides the theory with some limited credibility, but that is far from enough, I know. So, what do you think? Better explanations (other than the classic "Melisandre is a bad diviner of literally everything")?
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