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Chaircat Meow

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About Chaircat Meow

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    Oppressive Joke
  • Birthday 08/18/1989

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  1. Chaircat Meow

    UK Politics: It's Life Pfeffel but not as we know it

    If you are a Tory MP prepared to vote down the Tory government and support a temporary government backed overwhelmingly by the opposition parties in order to call an election for the purpose of preventing no deal you have to hope, in the end, that the Tories (your party) lose enough seats to be unable to form a government. This presumably means you want the other option to Johnson as PM, namely Corbyn. So refusing to endorse him as a temporary PM, when you need him as a permanent one after the election, in order to stop no deal, makes little to no sense. I suppose one election scenario (which is reasonably probable given polling) is one where the Tories stay the largest party but would be unable to govern without the liberals, who presumably would demand Brexit be called off/put to a referendum. A Tory PM could justify this bargain as the price to keep Corbyn and the SNP out of power. Placing Corbyn in number 10 may give him legitimacy and first pick for a coalition partner and make this scenario less likely.
  2. Chaircat Meow

    UK Politics: It's Life Pfeffel but not as we know it

    Pleased Philip Hammond is back and Bercow is piping up again. Another couple of days of Corbyn, McDonnell, Long-Bailey and Lucas falling over themselves in a circus of stupidity was too much to take. Johnson sounds rattled too, throwing around terms like collaborators ...
  3. Chaircat Meow

    UK Politics: It's Life Pfeffel but not as we know it

    Why are you totally ruling out Parliament stopping it somehow, either by VONC and caretaker government to call an election, or legislative means/revoking article.50? These ways might not work but we hardly know that at this stage - the mood may change quite a bit when September starts.
  4. Chaircat Meow

    UK Politics: It's Life Pfeffel but not as we know it

    I liked this bit: "There's plenty of options. Remainers seem a bit lost in a strange kind of defeatism this summer, as if they're certain they've already been outmanoeuvred. But look at the people they are admitting defeat to: A Cabinet made up of the worst collection of political non-entities ever witnessed at the height of British politics. A special adviser who seems perpetually indignant at the world in a manner that suggests he is really trying to work through some deep-seated personal problems. A prime minister who floats around on a bad-smelling bubble of arrogance and indifference. They're hopeless. It's like thinking you'll be defeated at chess by a field mouse."
  5. Chaircat Meow

    UK Politics: It's Life Pfeffel but not as we know it

    Steve Baker is an engineer I believe.
  6. Chaircat Meow

    UK Politics: It's Life Pfeffel but not as we know it

    No, that's not assured at all. 1) Parliament might stop him. 2) He might flake out as the deadline approaches - he apparently still thinks the EU will blink first.
  7. Chaircat Meow

    UK Politics: It's Life Pfeffel but not as we know it

    I guess a Labour-Liberal coalition that agreed on a second referendum and then won it for remain might be the best shot. Sort of the scenario I was thinking of above but the SNP were too much of a complicating factor for me. Corbyn could ditch his pro-Brexit stuff on the grounds it was the price of coalition to keep the Tories out.
  8. Chaircat Meow

    UK Politics: It's Life Pfeffel but not as we know it

    I am stumped. Supposing we have a hung Parliament but it has a remainer + Labour majority you have the very tricky question of how Labour, the Liberals and the SNP work together. Labour may not want to revoke article.50 or totally give up on Brexit. The other two will. The Liberals don't really want to work with either Corbyn or the SNP (a different labour leader might be a different proposition). No one wants to give the SNP a new Scottish referendum, likely one of their demands for a coalition, partly as this is a somewhat self-defeating strategy. If they win the referendum you lose your coalition, your majority and your country, and if the SNP lose it they flounce off in a huff and you lose your coalition and your majority. And supposing all these parties do work together they may fall out over whether to prepare for a second Brexit referendum or just take the defeat of the Tories in the GE as a mandate to revoke article 50. They need some very able leaders to steer through this and there are none. I think if Brexit does end up not happening it will be due to slow, grinding, endless paralysis and indecision.
  9. Chaircat Meow

    UK Politics: It's Life Pfeffel but not as we know it

    The alternative is that an extension is requested to hold a GE after 31 October. Boris might do that himself if the Commons votes against no-deal in October. In extremis a vote of no-confidence could bring to power a new government, maybe headed by a remainer Tory, like Ken Clarke, solely for the purpose of handing in an extension request to hold a GE if Boris was refusing to do this. In this case we wouldn't have to have the election before 31 October.
  10. My (admittedly vague and impressionistic) sense though is that Corbyn did that because of three key factors: 1. An awful stupid campaign by the Maybot 2. Remainers voting for Corbyn to protest Brexit/May's form of Brexit 3. Talking about things other than Brexit, the NHS, schools, benefits etc. I think in the hypothetical GE coming up 1. will probably no longer apply (Boris is a better campaigner although gaffe-prone), 2. will not apply (Corbyn's fecklessness has poisoned that well and the liberals are resurgent) leaving Corbyn with just 3. which is likely not enough (Boris is also making moves to address police numbers/schools etc) Still, anything could happen, a GE is highly unpredictable. I don't know dude, I think I'm going to go there. Your counterpoints make little sense and suggest you don't really understand why people find Corbyn objectionable. In Libya for example Cameron thought he was doing humanitarian intervention and fighting a dictator - the fact he may have got this wrong is not equivalent, in anyway, to backing and sympathising with enemies of his country. The Patel example is similarly daft, Israel is an ally, so although what she did wasn't right it is not equivalent to Corbyn's deeds. The criticism of Corbyn wrt the IRA is not that he wanted a peaceful settlement in NI but that he wanted one on IRA terms. He was an IRA sympathiser, as he is a supporter of the Soviet Union, Hezbollah, Hamas, Maduro, Iran and many others. It is absurd to make the same criticism of John Major, for instance, so there was nothing hypocritical in what I said.
  11. Indeed it could. I was just saying it could work. It is a risk that he could take and it may have a reasonable chance of success. He will lose some Tory votes to the liberals but probably gain more votes from BP. The key is that I think Boris could do a much better job of winning over BP voters than Swinson will of winning labour voters, or Corbyn of winning liberal voters. And if that means Boris is on over 30% and the others are on 20% FPTP could punish his opponents quite heavily.
  12. It would be high risk and could fail horribly. However, you can see a not that unlikely route to victory there. Boris has a good chance of uniting enough of his side of the Brexit argument to get over 30%, where as Corbyn is too weak to manage to same for … well it's not clear he has a side. A Tory party squeezing out the BP and Labour, Liberals and greens all fighting over mostly the same votes could hand Boris the victory he wants. Well, I can't speak for what all the voters will think. I can see a strong difference between a deal with the DUP twenty years after the GFA and Corbyn's support for the IRA during the troubles and other terrorist organisations around the world opposed to this country and its allies up to and including the present day, though.
  13. I don't know what he has the stomach for. But the no deal election might work. With the opposition divided between two remain parties: the liberals and the greens, and with one confused, useless and seemingly racist party (labour) just getting in the way Boris could clean up on 35% of the vote if he took a big enough chunk of the BP vote, which, if he was promising no deal, he might get. As for what would come after … He could revert to the NI only backstop (the DUP have been ousted from their role as kingmakers in this scenario) and insist it be watered down in some way before Parliament accepts it, or he carries through no deal which he would then have mandate and majority for.
  14. Hey dudes (and dudettes). Get a load of this!!! - Cometh the Hour, Cometh the Man: A Profile of Boris Johnson Toby Young (aka the arsehole's arsehole) has written a semi-panegyric on Quillette. The intro is awesome: "With his huge mop of blond hair, his tie askew and his shirt escaping from his trousers, he looked like an overgrown schoolboy. Yet with his imposing physical build, his thick neck and his broad, Germanic forehead, there was also something of Nietzsche’s Übermensch about him. You could imagine him in lederhosen, wandering through the Black Forest with an axe over his shoulder, looking for ogres to kill. This same combination—a state of advanced dishevelment and a sense of coiled strength, of an almost tangible will to power—was even more pronounced in his way of speaking." Toby continues "In Boris, though, it was as if I’d finally encountered the ‘real’ Oxford, the Platonic ideal. While the rest of us were works-in-progress, vainly trying on different personae, Boris was the finished article. He was an instantly recognizable character from the comic tradition in English letters: a pantomime toff. He was Sir Toby Belch in Twelfth Night demanding more cakes and ale, Bertie Wooster trying to pass himself off as Eustace H. Plimsoll when appearing in court after overdoing it on Boat Race night. Yet at the same time fizzing with vim and vinegar—“bursting with spunk,” as he once put it, explaining why he needed so many different female partners. He was a cross between Hugh Grant and a silverback gorilla. My uncle had described him as a “genius” and as a boy he’d been regarded as something of a wunderkind. There was the occasion when he was holidaying with his family in Greece, aged 10, and asked a group of Classics professors if he could join their game of Scrabble. They indulged the precocious, blond-haired moppet, only to be beaten by him. Thinking it was a one-off, they asked him to play another round and, again, he won. On and on it went, game after game. At the prep school he attended before going to Eton, Britain’s grandest private school, he was seen as a prodigy. A schoolmaster who taught him back then told his biographer, Andrew Gimson, that he was the quickest-learner he’d ever encountered. In the staff room, the teachers would compare notes about the “fantastically able boy. ... From the first moment I saw him, I felt I was in the presence of someone special, someone capable of achieving great things. I’ve never been able to dispel that impression." So there you go. The Ubermensch, the Platonic ideal, possessor of coiled strength. All hail Bozzah. Toby does concede though, "The next three months, between now and October 31st, will reveal whether that was a historical premonition or a sophomoric illusion." Well yeah.
  15. Thanks. This makes me feel better about my prospects under no deal.
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