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Chaircat Meow

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About Chaircat Meow

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    Oppressive Joke
  • Birthday 08/18/1989

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  1. Horrific poll from YouGov. Quite a few others (not all) say the same. The +3 for the Tories might just be people being prompted they can't vote for the BXP in current Tory seats - if so this small surge will likely not affect the result. Never thought I'd say this but come on Jeremy you can do better than this. CON: 45% (+3) LAB: 28% (-) LDEM: 15% (-) BREX: 4% (-) via @YouGov Chgs. w/ 12 Nov
  2. No, not as far as I know. The Brexit Party takes more votes from the Conservatives than Labour by at least a ratio of 2:1 but maybe by as much as 5:1. If it stands in any seat it advantages the Labour or Liberal party (look up Profs Rob Ford or Matthew Goodwin on twitter for detail). So Farage withdrawing from all Tory seats helps the Tories hold Conservative/Liberal marginals. It would help them hold Conservative/Labour marginals where they are the current incumbents too but as Labour is not expected to make many direct gains vs the Tories anyway this probably will not change much. Crucially Farage's refusal to stand the candidates down in Labour/Conservative marginals where Labour are the incumbents is a big lifeline for Corbyn. 2. That is the big question. The rise in the Liberal vote since 2017 puts Tory seats in the south of England under threat but it also weakens Labour in the Midlands battleground. So if the Liberal vote is badly distributed Johnson gains, as losses to Swinson in the South will be offset by gains against Corbyn in the Midlands. On the other hand if people inclined to vote Liberal are prepared to vote Labour if the Liberals are not the challengers in their seats this will shore up Labour.
  3. So the nomination papers are in and it looks like the Brexit Party are standing in almost all Labour held seats including nearly all the major marginals Boris needs to get a majority. They've pulled out of Dudley after the candidate unilaterally stood down and they are not standing in Canterbury either I heard but apart from that we are good. Farage is all over the place accusing the Tories of corruption one minute and saying he'll vote for them the next. He's not going after the Boris deal hammer and tongs the way Remainers wanted but he's still going to help out in the most crucial seats. Thanks Nigel!!!
  4. Yeah, I meant Canterbury. Silly me.
  5. It is being reported that the LibDem candidate has unilaterally stood down in Cambridge Canterbury to help Remainer Rosie Duffield. This is not a national policy by the Liberals. Hopefully some other candidates in seats that will be likely Liberals or Labour targets or vulnerable seats will do the same. Swinson and Corbyn will never do an official deal.
  6. Well the BXP party are/were polling more than UKIP were in Scotland, at about 5-6% or something. So if say 1/2 go Tory that could help them a bit. Apparently, according to Prof Rob Ford removing the BXP from contention would mean 1/2 their voters don't vote, 5/6 of the ones who do go Tory and 1/6 go Labour.
  7. It is possible though that most of the potential-Tory voters who could be squeezed out of the Brexit already were already anyway, and the ones who are left, and are now being stood down, will not vote.
  8. Pretty grim news about the Tory-Brexit pact. It shores up the Tories against the Liberals in the south and may even offer them some aid in Scotland in one or two tight contests. And of course it was Liberal and SNP gains people were depending on to deprive Boris of his majority. True it won't affect many seats but then it doesn't have to. And this may just be the beginning, the start of a long retreat as Brexit candidates in the all important Labour-Tory marginals are pulled as we approach 12 December.
  9. Anyone who thinks 'we get out' if Johnson wins and 'Brexit gets done' is the victim of a gross piece of charlatanry.
  10. One million Scots voted for it too.
  11. 1. If the point you were trying to make is that it is unfair to mention Labour anti-Semitism without mentioning Tory anti-Semitism because of the remark by Patel I do not think this argument is successful. Even if we suppose Patel did mean to make an anti-Semitic dog-whistle (which as others have pointed out is a quite unreasonable thing to assume) this would in no way show the problems the Tories have with anti-Semitism come anywhere near those riddling Labour, where an MP (Lucania Berger) was effectively bullied out of her local association among many other incidents. It is reasonable to take into account the magnitude of the problem here, a few instances in one party do not indicate it has a problem in the way a party with voluminous incidents does. And I wouldn't necessarily be as dismissive if NLMLE was uttered by someone from the Labour party because it might be the case the individual would have a history of anti-Semitic remarks (if Chris Williamson said it it would probably be reasonable to think it was anti-Semitic in intent). In addition NLMLE is an odd thing for a left-wing politician to say as LMLE at least is a right-wing populist attack line, so it would be much more curious coming from the Labour frontbench than the Tory one and so you might be more likely to entertain the idea it was intended to be interpreted as an attack on Jews if it came from Labour. Regarding the Tory issues with Muslims and other general racism it does seem to me this is not as serious an issue as Labour anti-Semitism because no Muslim/black Tory MP has had to resign on account of racist bullying in their party. In so far as many of our problems stem from Tory Teutonophobia I'm just folding this into Brexit. 2. Tbh I thought my summary of Boris and Corbyn in the OP was balanced. I think both are unfit to be PM. My preference is to stop Brexit even if it means Corbyn becomes PM, so long as he needs to depend on Liberal votes. If the Tories were somehow convinced to drop Brexit as the price of maintaining power (either by DUP or Liberals) I would prefer this to PM Corbyn, but I think it is very unlikely to happen so I do actually want the Labour + SNP + Liberal circus otherwise, even though I fear it will end in disaster one way or the other.
  12. 1. He has an anti-western world view which means he instinctively supports the country's enemies in times of conflict, i.e. he opposed the British attempt to retake the Falkland Islands even though we were attacked. This makes him obviously unfit to be PM. He also opposed western intervention in Bosnia to stop Serbian atrocities against the Bosnian Muslims. There was no wisdom in his opposition to the Iraq war, saving the wisdom a stopped clock has when it tells the right time. 2. He may or may not be personally a racist but he has enabled a culture of anti-Semitism to flourish in the Labour party; Jews have deserted Labour in droves and leading Jewish newspapers have called on the country to oppose Corbyn because of his lax stance on anti-Semitism. 3. He has been anti-EU and anti-NATO. Basically he wants to crash all the nation's alliances. This would make us less safe and less influential in the world. He may now be pro-EU but this is because of political expediency not conviction. 4. He supported the IRA during the Troubles, attending the funerals of terrorists who killed British soliders and civilians and protesting outside the courts when these terrorists were brought to trial. Essentially he is, to quote Nye Bevin in another context, lower than vermin. It is true that the Tory support for Brexit makes the anti-Corbyn case harder to make, as Brexit is also all about making the country less prosperous, free and sovereign.
  13. O woe. Evidence? I don't think Priti Patel is anti-Semitic. I do remember there was an allegation from various media including Peston but it was really nonsense (something about North London being code for Jew). I don't think Johnson has it in for black people/Muslims the way Corbynites have it in for Jews. There hasn't been evidence of bullying in the party of black people/Muslims under Johnson. No one cares. I think so, Adonis did not make the short-list.
  14. That's interesting. Sorry what 'post' is this and why does 'debate her' get Brexiters 'fired up'?
  15. That's great and everything but if Johnson is not deprived of a majority at this election we are fucked.
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