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Nothing Has Changed

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About Nothing Has Changed

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    aka Chaircat Meow
  • Birthday 08/18/1989

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  1. Nothing Has Changed

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    OK, so further to my last post the UK has a bit more time in the event the deal is rejected. Trouble is, what indication is there MPs will not piss it away stupidly like they have done before.
  2. Nothing Has Changed

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    Some thoughts from Chaircat May’s refusal to seek a long extension, which she more or less promised she would a few weeks ago, means no deal is now appreciably more likely. You can point to the majority against this in the HoC all you like but the grim truth is MPs have left themselves virtually no time to take the necessary action to prevent no deal happening. If MV3 is on Wednesday or Thursday (somehow, what about Bercow) then there is just no time to form an alternative government via a VONC or to revoke article.50. To take the latter example, primary legislation has passed in a day before but this has been when it was unopposed. The ERG smell blood though and they will fight a revocation every step of the way, so it will probably take much longer than a day to pass. In the first example, if Corbyn won a VONC on Thursday May can still linger trying to form a new majority and refuse to ask for the extension. So, if MV3 does make it back to the HoC, past Bercow, and if MPs still want to reject it then they have to bank on May asking for a long extension and switching course regarding the EP election, and the EU, especially Macron, granting one. It is true both of those things may happen but they are far from certain. So no deal is now a real possibility. And the mood music for MV3 passing is terrible. Labour MPs are now accusing the PM of putting their personal safety in danger by going over Parliament’s head and blaming MPs in front of the nation for the mess. This is just the sort of bad blood between the opposition and the government that could make Labourites thinking of voting for the deal tough it out: they will not be bullied by May. And the ERG think their filthy little no-deal Nirvana is now in sight; she will not get the rebellion down from the nationalist side of the Tory party, if anything it's going to go up. Her plan has always been to try and crumble one flank of the opposition to her deal by narrowing three options (no deal, deal, soft Brexit/Remain) down to two. It never ever works and this attempt looks set to be less successful than the last. And even if we do get an extension it is not clear how this can be resolved. Eminent commentators, such as John Rentoul, think Corbyn will never really help get a customs union Brexit over the line. There is sense in this. Labour isn’t opposing the government principally out of principal here, they’re opposing because they’re the opposition. May's deal is pretty much a permanent customs union anyway. They’re just never going to vote for a Tory Brexit. And this means an election will likely solve nothing either. Lets say an election was called and the filthy one ended up with a majority of ten (which is being very generous). Then he still would not get a Labour deal through, because the Tories, being the opposition would oppose and the Remainers in Labour ranks would also, and Corbyn would be in the same situation as May (only he would actually look even more pathetic). Maybe the Kyle amendment could be the solution, but even this does not solve the Tory dilemma. The second referendum gives the ERG nothing, so only a Labour-rumpTory coalition could get it through and I can't see that happening. The best outcome might just be a panicked revocation and then for everyone to focus on the NHS, potholes and the bins but, as I said, I suspect the point at which Parliament could revoke before 29 March has now passed. We are fucked.
  3. Nothing Has Changed

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    Yea, I have to say, I think this inflexibility wrt the elections is overblown. Real but overblown. Would it kill anyone to have the UK MEPs arrive a couple of months late and for the existing Parliament to carry on for a few extra months. We are talking about a sixth or so of the Union's GDP going awol here, you would have thought a bit of pragmatism would be in order. The elections are a second order problem, the real question is does the EU want to avoid a no-deal Brexit and open up the possibility for Brexit to be called off. If it does some fix can be found for the elections, if it doesn't they will be the formal reason for refusing the extension. And, as far as I know, the UK can still revoke and stay even if it has made no provision for the elections, so the EU can't necessarily avoid the problem anyway.
  4. Nothing Has Changed

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    Infinite regress alert!!!
  5. Nothing Has Changed

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    I think the point though is that people might break at the last minute for her, in MV3, whereas they are perhaps less likely to do that if the question is whether to overturn the speaker. Thinking of Labour mps here, it will be easier for them to say, no, you can't bring the deal back than to vote against the deal itself. Kind of psychology thing.
  6. Nothing Has Changed

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    Yes, I think that's right. As to whether she would win such a vote though, if she has enough to pass MV3 she must have enough to set aside the ruling allowing her to have MV3. It is just the order of the two votes, mps may be less willing to vote to set aside Bercow's rulings than to vote for the deal in MV3 but it is the vote on overturning Bercow that has to come first.
  7. Nothing Has Changed

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    No, not that I'm aware of. Everything seems to be proceeding as if Bercow hadn't said anything. People were saying the Tories were just assuming Bercow wouldn't actually dare. Well, obviously, he would. I think they have to find some way of showing the House wants to vote on the subject again. Bercow's case rests on protecting mps from bullying or timewasting by the executive but if they wish for the matter to be brought back hard to see how Bercow could stand in their way. So, she sort of needs to have the pro-deal coalition alive and kicking and obvious before the vote can be brought back, which is perhaps a bit harder than just tabling the vote again and forcing mps to vote or abstain.
  8. Nothing Has Changed

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    Dudes, you do all realise that this petition will achieve fuck all, even if it reaches 5 million signatures. Right.
  9. Nothing Has Changed

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    I just signed now.
  10. Nothing Has Changed

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    Did a bit, aye, but then some of it got eaten at a party … Not a pie person though, more pasta.
  11. Nothing Has Changed

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    I am going to do bit of stockpiling this weekend. Apples, bit of lettuce/tomatoes, Lloyd Grossman, a few steaks and some Belgian chocolates. I am thinking if worst comes to worst I have a lot of coco pops. I will go to different supermarkets though, as I don't want people to think I'm stockpiling. edit: also, Monstermunch
  12. Nothing Has Changed

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    Anyway, whatever we may think about the adulthood of various individual mps, collectively the House of Commons has failed. Brexit is next Friday and although there is a majority opposed to no deal they have proved pathetically inept at ruling this out. If they do choose to reject the deal again, assuming it even gets put to the vote given the Bercow ban (not a sure thing really) we will be utterly dependent on a last minute decision by the EU27 to grant a long extension in order to avoid no deal. And even then, how do we know May will ask for one and will there be time to force her to do so. Her refusal now to request a long extension shows the utter shameful folly of Parliament not taking control when they had the opportunity. There is a good chance we are well and truly fucked.
  13. Nothing Has Changed

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    Funny how the SNP get passed off as adults when they're also keen on trying to tear up political and economic unions based on lies and fantasies. edit: Ken Clarke I agree with, Dominic Grieve, Cooper, Benn, etc.
  14. Nothing Has Changed

    UK Politics: Time Marches On

    I didn't think Bercow would do this. But he did. He is, to quote somebody else in another context, 'an absolute boy.' It is important to note that the Commons can override this decision if they want, all they need is a vote on the principal of having another vote on the same thing. But I think that with the arithmetic so tight the added factor of having to vote for it to be brought back in the first place presents an additional obstacle and May is already trying to jump through too many hoops.
  15. Nothing Has Changed

    UK Politics: Time Marches On

    Rumour is that May is going to promise to align all UK business and agriculture regulation with the EU if the backstop is ever triggered, thereby minimising divergence between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Reports are DUP being won over. If true, bad. And sad, actually. OTOH, it seems like there is always a bubble of government optimism before the MVs, and it always bursts horribly come the day. So we will fucking see.
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