DMC

Biden, Trump tied for first time in months in 3-way race with RFK Jr Thought I’d share this because it aligns with something I noticed yesterday looking at RCP’s latest polls - that in a number of them, Biden is actually doing slightly better in the polls that include the third party candidates than in head-to-heads with Trump The first thing you see at RCP are seven swing state polls from Bloomberg/Morning Consult. Should be noted these still don’t look good for Biden, but interestingly, in three of the states Biden is actually doing a point better in the 5-way race than the head-to-head. The margin is the same in two other states, and Trump is doing better in the 5-way in the last two (much better in Nevada). More striking is looking at the latest national polls. In the latest Quinnipiac, the two are tied in both. In a Marist poll, Biden leads by 5 in the five-way but only 3 in the head to head. And NBC had Biden up by 2 in the 5-way while Trump was up by 2 in the head-to-head. This could just be a blip, and the differences are effectively negligible, but I wanted to note the trend because it aligns with my prior: that even if Kennedy does win substantial support in November, he may well take more votes from Trump than Biden - or at least have a neutral effect.

Figured it was just a typo. Mentioned it cuz it confused me enough at first that I looked up their season average.

^20 points.

That sucks. Haven’t had a hot pocket since my early 20s either, but from what I remember the biggest issue would be some parts would be molten hot while other parts would be barely heated at all.

Arizona House votes to repeal controversial 1864 abortion ban, with help of 3 Republicans National Republicans and Trump should send those 3 Arizona Republicans a pretty awesome gift basket, cuz that law was going to be killer for them in November. ETA: To be clear the state Senate hasn’t repealed the law yet, I just expect they will.

This really sucks man, I’ve been there. Well not exactly there, but I’ve been in a few love triangles with close friends over the years. My advice would be if you really can’t get over her, you need to cut off contact. Of course that’s just me - and naturally it gets even worse and more lonely at first - but eventually you do move on.

Wait..is this a typo or are you actually saying there are no issues you care about that you haven’t formally organized for? Cuz the latter seems pretty haughty.

The Democratic Convention this year is in Chicago. So more like shades of 1968!

You’re changing your unit of analysis. Per you, the 9% difference was based on soldiers. Presumably all are in shape, but that’s not the same as comparing elite athletes.

It’s really not.

I’m not convinced this is true, but I think the gulf here is on different conceptualizations of “fairness.” If the difference in mean runtime is only 9%, that doesn’t seem like a huge difference to me. There are going to be differences in means if you split up groups in a host of demos. I strongly suspect African American athletes are going to register significantly faster mean run times than white athletes, but we stopped splitting those up for very good reason.

I know you weren’t referring to everyone here, but just wanted to let you know I very much appreciated your detailed thoughts on the subject. I particularly thought the below sounds to me like a very reasonable compromise for those that have concerns:

Why narrow majorities and House gridlock are here to stay in 2024:

Gotta say, this is an incredibly misleading and rather perplexing statistic to use in the context of this discussion. Obviously, the concern here is only women’s sports. And - indeed - it’s great that the global revenues in 2024 are estimated to increase 300% compared to 2021! What does that increase result in? $1.3 billion. In other words, 0.2 percent of that $680 billion figure - albeit four years earlier.

The Senate overwhelmingly passed the foreign aid bill 79 to 18. That was quicker than I expected. It’s also a notable increase from the February bill, which passed 70 to 29. Both Vermont Senators - Sanders and Welch - voted against it, as will as Oregon’ Jeff Merkley. The rest of the nays were dumbass Republicans.

Don’t really think the presidential vote is instructive at all at this point, but should be noted Pitt’s rep and squad member Summer Lee cruised to victory. AIPAC considered funding a challenger, but ultimately realized it was a lost cause.

Your mother sounds like a cool lady. What’s annoying about traveling these days is I’ll have both my laptop and my iPad in my carry on, and going through security every airport has different procedures for whether and/or how to take them out. I swear they do this just to fuck with people like a perverse social psychologist. So I’ll just ask the TSA agent when I get to the bins what I’m supposed to do, and they always look at me like I’m an idiot. Fuck you TSA.

Well, ya know, stop smoking so much weed.

I mean, yes, I suppose I have a mental checklist for toiletries and chargers - and frankly that’s even more important to go through when leaving a hotel - but are y’all saying you actually write this shit down?

Nope. I guess I prefer some of my collared shirts more than others, but I honestly don’t worry about it when traveling. And all my underpants are lucky.

Nope. Just count how many shirts, pants, etc. I’ll need for the trip and put em in the suitcase. Packing for two weeks is tougher in terms of room. I don’t think I could fit enough clean clothes without knowing I could do laundry there.

I just take my clothes that are clean. If I need to do laundry beforehand I guess that would count as prepping.

I did have great interactions with them when I lived in DC. Pretty sure I’ve shared a couple of those anecdotes here previously. Them all being “jacked,” though, has not been my experience. I mean they’re all clearly in shape, but it’s not like hanging out with a bunch of bodybuilders.

Yeah I’m not even sure what that means. My prepping to pack is…packing.

So Biden chose my campus to hold an event today, literally the building adjacent to where I work and teach. I don’t have much to share - my main take is it was a bitch and a half getting out of there to get home (thanks Biden!) - but a few observations: First, there was a decent-sized pro-Palestinian contingent, probably 45 to 50 people by my reckoning. These were non-students and true believers - Biden coming specifically here was not public knowledge, even to our students, until this morning. Their signage and chants were of course incendiary, but in about ten minutes observing them…and then another five when the fuckers held up traffic as I was trying to leave, I did not see nor hear anything antisemitic. There also was a number of students on the rope line with pro-Palestinian signage, but nothing I could see that was even offensive - particularly compared to the much more hateful right wing rabble. At one point a contingent of about a dozen RFK supporters walked by me. 10 out of 12 were at least seventy. When I went to the back lot to smoke as I do every day I shot the shit with a couple secret service agents cuz that’s where Biden was arriving. They were good guys.