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Everything posted by KalVsWade

  1. As an interesting counterexample: Biden has almost entirely removed drone strikes by the US throughout the world. Obviously part of that is leaving Afghanistan, but part of that is his choices. How much news is there of this in mainstream news? How many people care that thousands of people are not actually being killed regularly as part of collateral damage? When I say that the US is largely apathetic, that's a good example too - even good news about not killing as many people is not broadcast, not covered, and no one cares.
  2. And much like your point about how most Americans are not all about guns and religion, most Americans are not about protests and mobilization. You can't have it both ways here. To be fair, apathy is also a reasonable behavior in the US for a large chunk of people, because they've seen what that mobilization does and how it affects things - which is to say, not very much. That is of course how the people who are largely in power want it, mind you, but it is also a reasonable outcome to decades of pushing and failing.
  3. Think you missed the part about how it's pretty important that this one, in particular, is not actually apathetic due to the outward power that they have. I did see a study that indicated also that while apathy with luxury is a common behavior, it's worse in the US than in other places; other populations are more engaged, more informed, more interested, and less willing to accept major changes. But really it doesn't matter; even if the US was entirely normal the power that it has means that the risk is significantly worse.
  4. Yeah, the best way to describe most people in the US is 'apathetic'. They were largely fine with the Iraq war because it didn't affect them personally. They were largely fine with Trump for the same reason. This is obviously incredibly dangerous to the rest of the world - the world's largest military and economic power is controlled by the whims of a populace that favors drama, reality TV and cares very little about any harm it causes provided that it doesn't hurt back. It's obviously incredibly dangerous to the folks who aren't part of that apathy, resulting in the world's largest jailed populace and ethnic minorities routinely being abused. But definitely don't blame the people. Me, I blame society.
  5. If they wanted to sell gas to Europe they wouldn't have invaded Ukraine. Russia might be able to sell at some point, but any putin led regime ain't gonna be doing it any time soon.
  6. They could, but that would be the Russians choosing to do it deliberately. That isn't how putin likes to do things - time after time he does subterfuge and then denies any actual action. People are not thrown out of windows - they fall. People are not poisoned. Hacks are done by entirely other groups. Why would he do it this way? To punish Europe right before winter while being able to vaguely say he didn't do it.
  7. That the failure points were then targeted in the very next election, successfully overriden and removed without any real issue is a very good sign of a failing democracy. There were a number of points where if one person chose to make a different choice we would have a crisis. And in a lot of places those people have been replaced by those willing to push a crisis. That almost no political backlash occurred to the failed coup is another bad sign. That a minority of voters can continue to elect the winner is also not a great indicator of strength, and in fact having disproportionate representation is one of the hallmarks of a failing democracy.
  8. On a major economic collapse changing votes - the main issue is that thanks to early voting it won't have as big effect no matter what. That said, the 2008 'recovery is sound' ad that killed McCain was pretty damn effective and it came out like Oct 15th. Obama was already going to win most likely, but that probably was responsible for the supermajority he got.
  9. Also, the iraq war didn't last long enough for people to be upset. The US won in under a month. Even the people that were mad about it didn't really feel an effect of it - until the US had to stay in for years, had ISIS and aq fighters, etc. But that was more obamas problem.
  10. Citation needed. Typically ineffective, mistrusted governments get replaced by governments that claim that they're going to be effective but are largely autocratic. This has so far happened in Hungary, Poland, the US and now Italy. See above for said backsliding, but in general a very common failure mode of democracies is why the perception of the government system is that it is flawed, and people want to replace it with something that is faster, more efficient, and does something - often at the cost of actual government.
  11. I'm genuinely surprised. I guess it's not a final vote, but this seems like another potential big-ish deal, though it's pretty narrow in scope.
  12. From the paper, I believe something like 80% of all democracies got worse - especially around partisanship, effectiveness of government, and trust in government. That's pretty drastic. Canada was called out specifically around effectiveness and trust.
  13. KalVsWade

    Board Issues 4

    I'm seeing errors from my admin saying that content from gum.criteo.com are blocked - probably due to an ad of some kind.
  14. There are some that are predicting a worse crash, yes. It's not as common but it is out there. In particular there are worries about the stability of the Chinese market that could cause some very unforeseen leverage issues which could be very, very bad. That interest rates and inflation are up there means that unlike 2008 it's harder to recover by using more money right away to just make the world more liquid. The other issue is that in 2008 the world was largely cooperative and could be relied on to work together to mitigate the recession. That is absolutely not the case. China could be seen then as an economic partner, and Russia was working closely with Europe. Neither are remotely true now, and that adds even more risk.
  15. I will say one thing about the Iraq war that I don't think I've seen mentioned: the actual success of the US invasion of Iraq has made other countries think that they can do 'quick' wars like that, and that so far has been absolutely a failure. The US showed the world how a modern military backed up with technology, good regional allies and attacking a country that was in shambles could just plow through it like butter - but this was a massive exception to the rule, and if lessons were learned they were entirely the wrong ones. Ukraine (and Georgia, and Syria, and Yemen, and Afghanistan) are showing the more realistic interpretation here. But for a while I think a lot of countries had the assumption that when a modern, large combined arms military faced an older, smaller country they'd just blitz through them. And I do think Russia at least partially thought this as well, without understanding why the US was so successful and what made Iraq specifically vulnerable.
  16. That lesson is only accurate if your military is as big as the next 20 nations combined and you have the world's largest economy. If you have the economy equivalent of Italy and your military has not been upgraded logistically since the 1930s chances are that's not a similar answer. Again, this equivalence that because the US does it Russia can do it too is pretty absurd.
  17. Historically when people refer to 'the Ukraine' it is a way of denying Ukrainians their nationality and personhood; it isn't a country, it is a place. It is a very real way of discounting Ukraine's right to exist. That you keep doing it when making arguments justifying the Ukraine war is not a great look. Also, Edward Snowden is now a Russian citizen, which I think also means he can be drafted:
  18. Simply put, China and Russia care about the US reaction to their aggression because the us has a big ass military that they use around the world. The US does not care that much about the reaction of Russia because russia does not. The two are not equivalent except for people who are looking for straws to grasp. Russian media would use (and in fact are using) absolute lies to justify their invasion. They aren't using the Iraq war. It is a ridiculous set of convoluted comparisons that would make osravan blush. I hope that not all Canadians are like this or I'm going to have to seriously rethink my vacation to the Canada.
  19. You may consider waiting a bit; the newest PS5 is supposed to be coming out Real Soon, and at that point prices should come down and/or be more available.
  20. So did Last Jedi and Rise of Skywalker. And Mandalorian did better than both as far as Disney is concerned.
  21. Yeah, I don't agree with that. The story starts with a guy faking being an actual knight, stopping someone from being raped, and ends with the noble heir of the kingdom dying gruesomely. It is definitely not the kind of feel-good story I was talking about; it is a story of nobility and honor and the consequences of those actions - and those consequences not being the most awesome thing; point of fact, I'm pretty sure that's precisely what GRRM was going for with Dunk and Egg - an homage to the honorable knight set in Westeros and showing the hypocrisy and consequences of it. Another way to say it: I would not expect an 'edited' version of Dunk and Egg where the heir doesn't die a horrible death or the real bad guy to basically get away scot free to happen. If I'm reading Westeros I expect there to be grey in morality, grey in choices and grey in outcomes. If that doesn't happen it would feel wrong. I think this is a fair reading, though I also have school-age children and they (and their friends) are pretty obsessed with Mandalorian and some of the more recent films, including...sadly...Rise of Skywalker. That said, I think it might be better to say that it's targeted towards the children who watched those shows and the feeling you got when watching. Some of it is for kids - but some of it is recapturing that nostalgia. And if you're watching something that says Star Wars on the tin, you're not expecting blowjob jokes or tits out or blood spraying everywhere. You're expecting, largely, space samurai to be doing bad-ass things, crazy adventures with no real plans somehow working out due to chutzpah and gambling around possession of slaves. And if you deviate from that at all - having things like heroes going dark, or women existing - then you may have a bad time. I think Andor is still on the edge there, but I think it's probably as far as they're gonna take it unless it proves absurdly successful.
  22. Yeah, Hedge Knight is a great example of it being a story about what a noble knight is - and what happens to him and those who he supports. Not a super awesome happy ending, was it? Counterpoint: reaction to Last Jedi and how that shaped the entire Star Wars brand, and reaction to Mandalorian and how that spun off, like, 5 different properties based on Clone Wars.
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