Padraig

As Rippounet said, if you shut down great swaths of the world for months/a couple of years and then you re-open everything again in a disjointed way, logistical chains are going to be significantly impacted, messing up supply v demand and leading to a rise in prices (and some profit seeking). That always struck me as the number one cause of inflation. The war in Ukraine was another. A lot of other environmental and political decisions also need to be considered. And then maybe government spending. There must have been proper research on this. It would be interesting to see the percentages but i'd be amazed if it was primarily government spending.

It seem to be incremental. These sort of leaders learn a lot from being in power and from how their power is resisted. Orban was first elected as PM in Hungary in 1998 but was kicked out in 2002. It took him 8 years to return to power but he was determined not to repeat that defeat. The PIS party first took power in 2005 in Poland but lost power in 2007. But again they learned from their mistakes, so that when they returned to power in 2015 they would radically alter the structures in Poland. They did lost power last year again but as far as I can see, the new government is having major issues trying to return the structures to a more normal democratic standard. It is still early I suppose. We all know how Trump seems to have learned a lot after his first term. Any next term will be an order of magnitude worse. Bolsonaro in Brazil has been banned from running for office for 8 years, so maybe Brazil will avoid this incremental process. Unless he wins an appeal or somebody equally troubling emerges to replace him. Erdogan has had a long unbroken period in power but while he initially seemed a ray of hope for the country, he gradually turned more and more autocratic and remade the country in his image. Although interestingly he hasn't succeeded in demolishing the opposition like in other countries, but he does keep winning the elections that matter. So yes, i'm sure Argentina's civic and political structures will help it for a time but the longer he remains in power, the more he will nibble away at those structures until they fall. The particularly worrying thing about Argentina is that the political classes seem to be even more corrupt or incompetent than in other countries, so its not like they offer much in the way of a reliable alternative. I think the world's failure in Ukraine and Gaza says a lot about where we are heading unfortunately, so while I may not be as pessimistic as Rippounet, I may not be far off. Even sort of good things, e.g. successful resistance to the dictatorship in Burma, are not really "good", as it is effectively a civil war and these armed conflicts just lead to countless lost and ruined lives. Edited: and you can say to same about how Chavismo got worse and worse in Venezuela also.

The above is hardly going to surprise anyone but it does reduce any uncertainty that does exist. Nothing is certain of course but you can't say you weren't warned. https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-vow-never-help-europe-attack-thierry-breton/ Trump did seemingly refer to the above more recently but the timing doesn't work (as he seems to suggest his threat was much earlier in his presidency, rather than near the end). https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/20/trump-nato-eu-00136732

True. The ultimate in unreliable narrators. It simply comes down to watchability. For first time viewers, this is essential viewing probably. For repeat viewers, the best way to watch it is probably to shut off the brain (because you'll try to create a plausible story based on the truth we are given and its a mess), which is not the best recommendation. And American Beauty is certainly worth a watch (if for the performances if nothing else), as long as you know about the eww factor..

I think I needed to be told before I rewatched it that the plot was a mess. I was so impressed by the rest of the movie when I watched it first, that I didn't notice that part. This time, it interfered with my enjoyment. But you are right that everyone in it is great. I remember the plot much clearer from Fargo (probably helped by the TV series), which helped it. But I do agree about the over-rated part. I preferred all seasons of the TV show that I watched. I probably made a mistake with American Beauty. I do remember the reviews at the time were ecstatic but there are tons of movies like it now. My curiosity got the better of me. Edited to add: I'd definitely agree with that. It should be watched since its a true story but there is no hope in it. Except that the story can be told now but that's an incredibly low bar.

The US's intentions are rarely surprising. I doubt you were seriously surprised when they responded to ships being targeted. Or their support of Israel. Some decisions are simply better than others. If they stop ships being targeted, that will be a success. But, it is rather unclear if stopping such attacks is possible. Especially since responding to terrorism is generally a very difficult proposition. We can see countless examples of that (including right now). Everyone agrees that terrorism is bad but how do you stop it? But ignoring it doesn't make it go away either.

My sample of later 1990s movies weren't as strong as the early 1990 movies The stand out one was LA Confidential, which was even more fun than I remembered (with a few small gripes). While Saving Private Ryan is also great, but the ending was definitely overdone. On the other hand, the Usual Suspects' plot is nonsense. It is still impressive in many ways but now that I knew what was going on, I realised that behind all the smoke and mirrors, the plot made no sense. Only took me nearly 30 years. When it came to Fargo, I wasn't a big fan of it when I first watched it and nothing really changed. Many impressive aspects again, but I think its because nearly all the characters are dumb and unpleasant (except for the main character and her husband). I don't really like spending time with them. And then American Beauty. That really got so much acclaim on release but even ignoring the Spacey issues, that dated very quickly.

I really wish the world worked like you want it to. As far as I can see, this is mainly propaganda. They say they are supporting those in Gaza but there is very little connection between their activities and Israel/Gaza. It is connected because they say it is connected. And now they are the glorious defenders of those in Gaza, even though it doesn't help those people at all. It is standard propaganda. Of course, there is a connection. The US is supporting Israel and the US is annoyed at the disruption to international trade. I don't think the Somalian pirates ever forced ships to go the long way around Africa, so this is non-trivial. They say they believe those ships are trading with Israel. I'm surprised people are accepting what the Houthis have to say as fact.

I don't get it. My impression was that they weren't random but they weren't specifically targeted either? Am I missing something.

Ultimately, Trump can't give the whole of Ukraine over to Putin. It would put a lot more pressure on the rest of Europe though and the EU can't say Trump's betrayal of Ukraine would be a surprise. It would have to take up some of the slack. Trump can practically ensure that Ukraine can't win the war though (since Europe isn't set up to fully replace the type of aid the US can give). And Russia would probably take more land. But Ukraine has shown enough resolve to stop worse case scenarios from arising (since I do believe Europe wouldn't abandon Ukraine).

Thanks. That map says a lot. Mea culpa. I should have said that is never going to happen.

We are a long way from that. But wasn't a high proportion of that in the middle part of the year? The end of the year has been much less positive. Last winter was poor also for Ukraine but at that stage, there was a lot of talk about Ukraine preparing for its 2023 offensive. Things are much more muted now about future plans. Generally, while i'm not sure about the smaller points, what Kalbear says seems more in line with what I have read.

I was curious about what the €50bn aid the US was planning to give Ukraine would represent. Do we know? I did a quick check but couldn't find details. Given the discussion about what is the best type of military aid, I did wonder what the US was proposing. Germany today made a call for more military aid to Ukraine from the EU. https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/scholz-calls-on-eu-countries-to-arm-ukraine/#:~:text=The plan would see the,its mid-term budget review. I don't think it is true that countries don't want to pay for Ukraine to win. Only one country is stopping EU (non-military) aid of €50bn and the above article suggests there is hope there too (and even without Hungary's approval, it is expected that money will be approved from all the other EU countries). The Republicans in the US would arguably always have stopped military aid. They now simply have the power to do so. Generally, i'm not thinking that attitudes have changed as much as it seems. Although, this is still obviously a bad situation to be in. Anyhow, my fear remains that at the moment Russia is making very slow but incremental progress. The right type of military aid may stabilise that (or allow the Ukraine to make some small bits of progress). I'm just really worried that there is no realistic amount of military aid possible from the US/EU which would enable Ukraine to succeed in a major offensive war (right now, they are in defence). Victory requires something wild to happen in Russia. I hope i'm wrong. But Putin is not interested in stopping the war, so the only option is to keep throwing resources at Ukraine and hoping things eventually work out. Wars are ultimately about resources and resolve. Putin thought he had more of both. He was wrong but things can change.

That's all fair. Harder to pick one year but I was impressed that each year in the early 90s had (at least) one excellent movie. And yes, with that came a lot of poor stuff, but that can be suitably ignored.

The early 1990s may have been peak film. Original, well crafted material that was also popular with a broader audience. You can definitively debate these things but it arguably has the definitive gangster movie (Goodfellas), the definitive western (the Unforgiven), the definitive serial killer movie (the Silence of the Lambs), the definitive movie about the Holocaust (Schindler's List, always relevant but seems even more timely currently) and the definitive whatever type of movie Pulp Fiction is (just calling it a Tarantino movie seems limiting but it is his magnus opus).

Sure. The West dared say there were serious election irregularities. Russia avoids such excitement.

Its kind of intriguing. There doesn't seem to be an argument about this network's previous existence as a propaganda machine. The important point is that it was the "right kind" of propaganda. And this political party deserves to have a channel to spout their propaganda. The fact that the state funded is not particularly relevant either. Their "truth" is correct and it needs to be heard unsullied by other viewpoint. Ethics in journalism is for losers. Its a scary mindset. Best of luck to Poland. (At least, that is how it is been reported here).

Well, if you find yourself using every fact you hear related to COVID to justify your definitive position on COVID, you are very likely going overboard. COVID was and is complicated. While your position may (or may not) have been one of the better ones, some people certainly suffered if it was implemented.

That doesn't seem true. Biden clearly wants to support Ukraine. But he can't without Republican support. It is about politics, not really Ukraine itself. Europe has much more at stake. But from the very start, some states have dragged their feet on how to react. That continues. Its interesting to see why some countries have done what they have. Hungary is the only state particularly opposed to Ukraine though (and that existed since the start also). Here is views from the public at large. https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/europeans-continue-strongly-support-ukraine-eurobarometer-shows-2023-12-13_en I would be more anxious about the war right now. Putin and the Russian media have started to talk with a lot more confidence (although, some of that is propaganda).

Two referendums on the same subject being rejected in a year is not good. Politicians are supposed to come up with solutions to problems. Even if you approve of an individual result, this is not going to inspire faith in institutions, which you need.

I don't believe that is how that works. And many EU/Eurozone countries have individually given money to Ukraine.

That's a very good question. Politico, for whatever that is worth, is blaming an incident from 2009 for making the Slovak PM hate Ukraine. And he does get along with Orban. https://www.politico.eu/article/slovakia-new-prime-minister-robert-fico-ukraine-war/ While the US system can be very intransigent, the EU system is probably worse with its 27 vetos. And Orban is like a pantomime villain, except able to create real damage. On the other hand, the EU does normally get there in the end, it just takes much longer than you'd like. It is been reported here that if no agreement is reached with Hungary in the new year, the 26 other member states could come together on a bilateral basis to provide Ukraine with the extra funding, outside the EU’s structures. So, I still imagine we'll have more EUish funding before the US comes on board. Opening EU negotiations is good news at least. Moldova is included also. And Georgia reaches EU candidate status, which is very significant also. We are years from a result (and Orban can interfere later on also) but its something.

Yes, the Brazilian foreign minister said a few days ago that "under no circumstances can we allow one country to attack another using our territory". It is up to countries like Brazil and the US to make it clear to Venezuela that they are utterly opposed to war. This dispute is a perfect one for diplomacy. It may require some posturing but we can live with that if it avoids war. Ultimately, while people may frown at any US involvement because of past sins, the people who would suffer from US isolation would be the Guyanese (not the US). It would be ridiculously ironic if Latin Americans like the Guyanese would pay the price as "punishment" for historic US aggression against other Latin American countries. Venezuela has talked about Guyana now giving the green light to the US to set up military bases there (in response to Venezuela's demands). We certainly don't want more military bases in the world but I can't blame the US, if this is true (rather than propaganda). Venezuela opened the door for that. There is a huge difference. It is hard to underplay the atrocities caused by wars of conquest. For thousands of years, it was a terrible blight on the world. It was the "normal" way the world operated. Big countries would invade smaller countries, seize their wealth, enslave their people, rape and pillage etc. So yes, wars still happen but denormalising wars of conquest is seismic. Unfortunately, we don't live in a world where wars don't happen but never let the pursuit of perfection undermine the progress that has been made.

I've read that it is very difficult for Venezuela to even invade Guyana. The border is jungle. They'd have to make an amphibious attack, which is obviously more challenging. Most experts in that region seem positive that there wouldn't be any war. Maduro is just using it as an opportunity to arrest opposition figures for treason (since they opposed the referendum). The Presidents of both countries are supposed to meet this coming week, so we'll know more then.

Into the late 80s for me film wise. You can see how the big blockbuster is becoming more prominent. Although, Back to the Future is an enjoyable movie, I didn’t remember how much of a children's movie it is (even with the mom and son thing). I was less surprised about Who Framed Rodger Rabbit (although I’m sure nostalgia for the old school cartoons helped that film cross the age divide and it does have the amusing Chinatown parallels). I would prefer Back to the.Future of the two movies but they are enjoyable. Indiana Jones and the Raiders of the Lost Ark (from earlier in the decade) holds up much better for all ages I think. On a completely different note, Aliens stands up really well. Great movie. I liked Alien 3, but after reseeing this, Alien 3 really didn't treat Aliens with much respect. As well as the blockbusters, I did watch some serious movies. Even when I know it’s going to happen, Full Metal Jacket is still structured so oddly. Somebody described it as 2 movies, featuring some of the same characters. I could see how a third act could bring it all together but apparently the book, which its based on, is similarly structured. Still, the one later Kubrick movie I do like a lot. Do the Right Thing feels as topical today as it was back then. Another very strong movie. And an amazingly young Giancarlo Esposito.