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About Nyrhex

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  • Birthday 08/17/1989

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  1. Nyrhex

    Battle on the Green Fork casualties

    The most likely scenario is that Stannis has ~21,000 men total, and that Davos is wrong to say that Stannis has 20,000 cavalry waiting for the fleet. That either Martin forgot that a fifth of Renly's horse left with Loras when he wrote it, or it could also be that Davos is intentionally unreliable. He also inflated Stannis' numbers after the Blackwater. Stannis says he has 1,300 men on Dragonstone, and 300 at Storm's End. He never went to Storm's End and stripped it of most of the garrison, he went straight north. So when Davos thinks later that Stannis came north with "no more than 1,500" he is again inflating the figures. Stannis has 3,000 men on Dragonstone at the start of ACOK, and Renly rounds up his numbers to 5,000 at Storm's End. Renly brought 20,000 horse, and after his death a fifth leave, which leaves Stannis with 5,000 + 16,000 = 21,000 men. Within two weeks Stannis rides for King's Landing while the fleet makes its way around with the landing party = Stannis' original host which was mainly (~4,600) infantry. So assuming that Stannis took all the cavalry for speed, he would have had closer to ~16,400 horse waiting on the south bank for the fleet and the rest of his host. Either Martin or Davos forgot that a fifth went with Loras. One alternative is that after Stannis is joined by ~2,000 men near Storm's End, he gathers several thousand more cavalry while on a quick ride north to King's Landing. Seems highly unlikely. Another alternative is that "a fifth of Renly's knights" is somehow taken to mean a fifth of the knightly class alone while the bulk of the cavalry would not be "knights". This is assuming those to be a few hundred. Again, seems highly unlikely. Tyrell, Rowen, Tarly and a few other lords would have more than a few hundred knights between them, and most of the non-knights would still be their own men, rather than sellswords who would happily jump ship. House Massey is never mentioned as having joined Stannis, a knight of House Massey was hie retainer. A leftover of Robert, Justin was likely made a part of Stannis' household around the same time as Horpe. There is a reason why Stannis trusts these two more than all of his lords of the Narrow Sea, or Stormlords and Reachlords who joined later. A far more interesting leftover was Cressen. A maester is sworn to the castle, not to be passed down to a younger brother of the same house. Considering that he was the maester of Storm's End during the rebellion, it was very likely to be a personal request to the Citadel to be relocated to Dragonstone when it was given to Stannis. Horpe likely entered service with Stannis after Cersei spoke against him taking a white cloak. Massey seeks a title from Stannis, claiming to be landless. Had he been his father's heir, he would have expected to reclaim his lands in the south once the war was won. As a younger son, or even a cousin or further of the main line, he would have had to look for employment to make his fortune. Being Robert's squire, it would be easy to imagine that he too was passed on to Stannis when he established his cadet branch on Dragonstone, rather than take place in Robert's household. And yes, during the Battle of the Blackwater Davos gives us Imry's battle plan: First two lines of 20 ships (40) are to engage Joffrey's fleet (~50). The rest of the galleys (~20 of the 100s, and ~40 of the smaller Myrish galleys) would stick to the right (north bank) and land troops on the north bank, companies of archers and spearmen - these are in all likelyhood Stannis' original infnatry. We know that Celtigar was stranded on the north bank, and Tyrion faces Velaryon spearmen on the bridge of ships. These ships would then join the first two ranks in battle with the enemy fleet. The rest of the smaller, slower ships (~70) were to stick to the left (south bank), take on men from the mounted host, and start ferrying them to the newly captured beach-head, now secured by the landing party. Saan and his fleet (~24 Lyseni galleys, a few cogs to make for 30 ships he has on Dragonstone) would remain in the rear to guard against any potential enemy reinforcements. Of Stannis' ~4,600 infantry, it is not known how many were kept on Stannis' fleet for the battle, but likely the bulk were used for the landing units.
  2. Nyrhex

    The Antler Men

    The only time we hear of anything similar is when Tyrion mentions that Kevan's pikemen formed squares between the lines of archers on the Green Fork, and that those same pikemen pushed back the remnants of the Stark host. But both Tywin's and Roose's armies were described as being mainly composed of "men at arms", another term that does not mean what it usually means, here basically everything from cavalry who are not knights to common foot soldiers with "spear and sword and axe". And half the time pikemen are little different from spearmen. Bran sees Karstark pikemen arrive at Winterfell, but on the Green Fork Gregor smashes through a Karstark shield wall and they are described as having spears. Manderly's foot have "pikes and spears and tridents", and his cavalry are 200 mounted "lancers and swordsmen and freeriders", there is no real division made. When Tyrion asks his father for weapons for the Clansmen he asks for "swords, pikes, steel spearheads, maces, battle-axes", again without any real division that could tell us if armies used pike square formations or if Martin just throws names of weapons. Danwell Frey is seen leading a column of pikemen out of the Twins, but when Theon sees the Frey infantry in Dance he describes them as "bowmen, spearmen, peasants armed with scythes and sharpened sticks", no pikemen, or at best too few to mention. Did all the pikemen go to Riverrun? Possible, but Cersei says they are "spears", so at best they would be the minority of the force. From a quick look via A Search of Ice and Fire and with the search function over electronic copies: ACOK only has Mallister guarding a ford with some archers and pikemen, and Renly saying that he has a 100,000 swords and spears and pikes, but the only pikes we saw in his camp were ones with banners on near tents of lords XYZ. We have no clue regarding the composition of his force. If it was anything like on the Green Fork, it would have still been largely "men at arms" with spear and sword and axe. ASOS has Gold Cloaks guarding the Red Keep with pikes for some reason. There are a few cases of guards being armed with halberds, but for some reason the dominant infantry weapons remains the simple spear. Neither AFFC nor ADWD have any mentions of pike as a weapon, only the fish. Same for the gift chapters from TWOW, for the Dunk and Egg tales, for The Rogue Prince and for The Princess and the Queen. The World of Ice and Fire only mentions that Aegon had men with spears and pikes and archers and crossbowmen in the Field of Fire. And I'm sure they would try thier very best to act like southron lancers, but they are still wearing significantly inferior armor, and have yet to display a meaningful shock charge. But again, we are derailing the thread. Continue in PM? The Crown under Robert had money on hand to throw the Hand's Tourney with little notice, and only started having issues in the middle of a civil war that saw the Tyrells closing the food shipments, Stannis closing the sea trade, and war on all fronts. And it still took a year of siege and Cersei building a fleet of the largest ships in history to default on its loans. Corruption existed for sure, but the bulk of the Crown's revenue was being loaned out and used to generate more. Again, having a full treasury is nice if you are building a war chest or if you are planning some similar grand expense. But otherwise you want to use that money.
  3. Nyrhex

    The Antler Men

    I wouldn't say it completely negates the comparison. Same as I wouldn't say that Martin using the word pike makes any formation we see a pike block or a Schilthorn. We know that Robb's group at the Battle of the Camps failed to break the Lannister shield wall (the Blackfish having more surprise to his aid, and the southern camp was not attacked) and needed Blackwood to sally and take them in the rear, and Cassel's cavalry broke the Ironborn because they specifically can't hold a shield wall. Jaime's cavalry rides into an ambish including archers shooting his horse from under him, and while everything around him turns into a melee he still made his way with some men to Robb through his personal guard before going down. Stafford's camp didn't even bother with sentries and was overrun. Ramsay's "cavalry" force had more men with greatsowrds and battleaxes than with lances, and took most of the day to scatter Cassel's force. Where do we see the Northmen perform a meaningful shock charge? Plus it's Martin's words, and they are described as wearing mail and halfhelms/nasal helms whenever there is description, which is closer to Hastings-era. But I think this is a bit too much of a derail for the thread for now. It actually may well have been named the "King's Road" while the Storm Kings ruled the Riverlands. The path starts at Storm's End and goes to the furthest reaches of the realm of the Storm Kings, while the Northern portion is pretty much what the Starks used to get from Winterfell to the Wall, and the portion to Moat Cailin is practically non-existant, and with little use. Robert mentions how there aren't any inns all the way to Winterfell, and Theon remembers how they had to sent the van to prepare the way for the army. Trade with the North is done almost exclusively via White Harbor.
  4. Nyrhex

    The Antler Men

    First of all, I don't see a reason to be fair to Tyrion. His entire shtick is that he is meant to be smart. He repeatedly fails to deliver, and is pissed that he doesn't get credit even when none is due. He gets overruled, he won't gather some of the men his father uses for his finances to go over the records with him, and his only idea of how to get out of the mess they are in is to ask his daddy for money. Yeah, I feel comfortable to say that he was an incompetant Master of Coin. And the North cares about tourneys and everything fancy about the south every bit as southrons do. They are just poorer, and have fewer events, don't buy thier "tough men" propaganda. They have tourneys, Mandely took part in tourneys when he was younger, Roose laments that Domeric would have been a great jouster, Jory for all his shit-talking went to compete in the Hand's Tourney, Ned Stark and his siblings went to the largest tourney of their generation, there was a great Melee at Last Hearth in 170 AC that was infamous for the large number of dead, and wounded it produced. Robb laments that he has so few knights, and Luwin has to promise that his other heavy horse are just as good. Even when we have word of auther and every single description of them that they are closer to the Norman knights in mail that invaded England in 1066, while the southrons walk around in different levels of plate armor that gets closer to early 15th century. There are also knights in most Northern families or households, with the north-eastern portion having the least, being the more traditionalist region. So much so that they still practice the First Night whenever they feel like they can get away with it. Ned not knowing can be from a bunch of reasons, but most likely because the book was meant to be the first of a trilogy, and the more stuff that is added up the more issues come out. Ned also has a big fight with Robert over Jaime getting to be Warden of the East, and we later see just how meaningless that title is. Ned is also convinced that Jaime would one day inherit his father, though in the same book we hear that the Kingsguard serve for life. The books have issues, and so it is a bit difficult to say what was intentional and what wasn't, because Martin can change his mind between SSMs, between books, between chapters, and sometimes within the same chapter.
  5. Nyrhex

    The Antler Men

    The obviouse reason was because the Antler Men were in debt to the crown, and wanted a chance to get thier debts wiped by gaining either Stannis' or Renly's favor in the battle. Robert wasn't economically incompetent. He may have splashed around with funds, but nowhere close to the sort of expenses that can get those sort of debts, and stuff like the Hand's Tourney serves both as "bread and circuses" and adds considerably to the city's incomes from all those who come and pay for services in the city. Lords and thier retinues and the mercantile class fill every inn worth the name, commoners fill everything else. They buy food and hire washer women to wash thier clothes, etc if nothing else. But more also make bets, the merchants and lords close trade deals, make contacts, etc. And plenty of them stay in town for longer than the tourney itself. Large events bring large amounts of income, and money usually works its way up because there is more to tax. Large prizes bring more interest, which brings more people and more wealth. The overwhelming bulk of the crown's expenses were investments themselves, which makes Robert the single largest economic drive in Westerosi history, far more than any of the Targaryen kings. The main issue is that people usually think that to be in debt means you are doing something wrong and means you are broke, and that having cash locked up in a vault is wealth. That's not how economy works. Up until the WOT5K Robert was still able to keep to his periodic payments, and even after over a year of warfare, the crown only really gets in trouble after Littlefinger leaves and a string of incompetent Masters of Coin (Tyrion, Rosby, Swyft) follows him, and after Cersei orders a fleet of the largest warships in Westerosi history. Littlefinger was given control of the customs at Gulltown around 289, around the time the crown had to deal with the expenses of the Greyjoy Rebellion, and increased the usual income that was collected there by 200%. That ability got him named Master of Coin around 292. Within 6 years, the crown's incomes have increased by 900%. Tywin taking on the Iron Bank's debt of Aerys II wasn't sound policy or fixing the economy, it was a rich lord taking on the king's debt in hope of gaining favor. Didn't work so well, but Tywin was already wealthy enough that it didn't hit him too bad. After all, the man had the plot gift of the Reyne-Tarbeck revolt*, and what is likely a handsome pay for ~20 years as Hand**, on top of the plot gift of the legendary mines of Casterly Rock that somehow grant him the ability to print money without ever bringing about an inflation crisis. Aerys II's treasury being full of gold does not make him wealthy, it menas that he hoarded his gold. Much like a dragon is wont to do. Tywin took on his debts, and gives Robert loans more to gain favors with the king again, more than because he wants to put his money to work. Under Robert, Littlefinger went on to delay expenses with promises, while using the existing funds and loans taken from the Lannisters, Tyrells, Faith, Iron Bank etc to make investments. This included purchasing of raw goods, means of transportation and storage, and selling finished products at a high profit. He also provided loans for the mercantile class to allow more merchants to conduct trade, and they pay back the crown with interest, on top of increasing taxes by increased trade. Those merchants are the "Antler Men", and as Tyrion finds out later, many of them owed considerable sums to the crown. Aiding either Renly or Stannis with opening the gates of King's Landing mid-battle would have likely granted them a boon - striking off thier debt to the crown. Of course Tyrion let's Joffrey throw them with a trebuchet with little thought, then blames him for why the crown now cannot go to dead men and expect them to continue thier interest payments. Because even if the crown confiscated thier wealth, it would only be what they kept in King's Landing, while a merchant's worth is usually in wealth he puts to work. Littlefinger's investments are also gone with him, and all Tyrion and Rosby and Swyft and even Kevan can later think of is either to raise taxes, get new loans, or to put thier hands into the coffers of Casterly Rock and covering the debt. Because none of them has any idea of how to run on debt, they were used to having money because they have large incomes since they were born the sons of great lords, and lords in Westeros usually look down on "new money". Now while the Antler Men would have likely gone to Renly as well, Stannis would have probably been better suited to dealing with the crown's debts. He is introduced in ACOK already heavily in debt, and is still going strong. * During the Reyne-Tarbeck revolt Tywin massacared two wealthy noble families and took thier lands and incomes and wealth and had a weak and sickly king on the throne that for some reason didn't order him executed for mass murder and illegal warfare. He also calls back all the previous loans of his father, and sitting on this massive pile of stolen cash and incomes, he gets the unnatural fear aura of someone who can just do that and get away with it for the next ~38 years. ** Littlefinger is a poor lord of a the miserable "Drearfort", but he is Master of Coin, so no one bats an eye when he establishes an expensive network of brothels in King's Landing. The pay of the Small Council is likely very good, on top of the chance to dabble in embezzlement.
  6. Nyrhex

    Tyrion's army at the Blackwater

    1. Those men would also be the least presentable, and Littlefinger wanted an extra 20 knights purely to put on a show that he is more than a guy with a miserable tower and a couple of servants. Seems unlikely. 2. By the time Tyrion arrives at he city, the construction of those weapons was at most going on for a couple of months if Cersei saw Joffrey cut off Ned's head, then ran to tell the smiths and carpenters to start building scorpions. But that is assuming that she started fearing war on several fronts from the get go. Up to that point they still thought war could be avoided if Ned takes the Black. News of the defeat of Jaime's host and of Renly's coronation only arrives after Ned's execution. The work clearly began shortly before Tyrion arrives, maybe a couple of weeks, and Tyrion quickly kills the work for over half a year to work on his chain. Seems unlikely that they managed to pump out too many of the weapons. 3. Rosby left the city with Tommen, was ambushed by Tyrion's agents, and went back home with them and without Blount. Bywater comes back with Rosby's fresh levies. And Stokeworth has a "small troop of soldiers" with her when she arrives in the city. Neither house is said to be able to field many men, so we don't even have anything to compare these figures to, but "fresh levies recruited from Lord Gyles' estates" and "a small troop of soldiers" doesn't sound like a significant force. And lords are lords. The Stormlands have over 30 lords, and are usually estimated as having ~30,000 troops. If every lord is equal, they can all raise ~1,000 men, and they can all raise only ~1,000 men. And then how do you explain someone like Dondarrion leading ~4,800 men to the Red Mountains? Those ~30 lords include great lords and major lords and petty lords. Some can raise 1,000 men, some can raise more, some can raise fewer. Same in the Crownlands. Add to that the fact that most need to keep men to defend themselves from all factions, and it is little wonder that they are not too keen on sending all of their men to the city. 4. The armors and weapons were explicitly said to be for the new men that were raised. The fact that they could only scrounge up 4,000 men is both bad world-building on Martin's part, the crown being strapped for cash, struggling to even feed the city (half the City Watch were sent hunting...), and little loved. The Antler Men find a few hundreds that they arm out of pocket, because all they had to do was open a gate for the large army on the other side. There was still manpower, but they couldn't manage to raise them even before Tyrion cuts spending on arming and armoring the new recruits. 6. When Jaime is at the Hayfords, they say that while they were spared, a vassal house of thiers, House Hogg, was raided by Amory Lurch's men. Also, the RPG figures are semi-canon for a reason, they are next to worthless. I keep seeing people use them but they fail to hold to any real attempt to mapping out military figures. 7. We see no cogs or carracks on the Lannister side in the battle at any point. I know the difference between the ships, and I intentionally made a point to mention the odd Braavosi, I wasn't trying to hide him. But there is simply nothing to indicate that there were merchant ships on the Lannister side anywhere in the battle. There is nothing in the books that ever mentions such trade ships. 8. No ship sounds like a regular ship that the name implies, they are all loosly based on how Martin thinks ships are like. Davos is lucky he didn't go under with the ship he rammed because that's not how you ram. For that matter, it's not clear why the Royal Fleet is using ramming galleys when they can use other ships that Westerosi use that are practically immune to the tactic and can offer them clear advantages over anything the ramming galley can possibly offer. Tycho brings a galleas, a ship type that is notably different from merchant galleys of the period because it has significant gunpowder artilley. In a setting lacking those, the ship would look nothing alike what the name implies, it was simply used because Braavos is loosely based on 16th century Venice. It's especially irritating when they mention in universe some of the flaws of going with X ship against Y ship, but refuse to ask "why don't we, like, just copy those ships?". The same issue comes up when Martin makes a mish-mash of different time periods, cultures, and has a weak grasp any of these matters to begin with. The ships Victarion attacks are named by Victarion as longships, and Victarion makes a clear difference between longships and war galleys. Mallister has 6 longships and 2 war galleys, the longship is the mainland's coastal patrol ship.
  7. Nyrhex

    Tyrion's army at the Blackwater

    Something like these two? Though for some reason there is zero mentioning of any household knights or guards in the king's service aside of the City Watch and the Kingsguard. Renly was confidant he could gather a hundred men, but those were mainly of people who came for the Hand's Tourney and lingered. Ned considers that he has to have the City Watch and his household troops vs Cersei and her Lannister guardsmen, and the Kingsguard. Not a word on 300 household knights in Robert's service. Not even a tenth of that ever appears, and the two freeriders from the Dornish Marches are never mentioned again.
  8. Nyrhex

    Tyrion's army at the Blackwater

    1. How did you get 3,700 of the City Watch to be the new ones? I figure the 300 men that Littlefinger takes would be from the old ones. 2. "Hundreds of Scorpions" was before Tyrion diverted efforts and funds to his chain. Same with arming the new recruits, it is likely to have not come about. 3. No mention of Rosby/Stokeworth composition aside of Rosby being fresh levies, and Stokeworth sending a "small troop of soldiers" with Falyse. 4. It is unlikely that the new recruits would be properly armed and armored considering that Tyrion explicitly orders the works on that front to halt until his chain is ready, which was only completed a couple days before Stannis arrived. Probably had to do with spares from the existing stock, and what they could improvise/what the smiths could manage in limited amount of spare time/material while working on the chain. 5. 320 knights, 20 go with Littlefinger and 300 Watchmen, plus 20 squires. No information where they come from. Could be greater Crownlands area, could be knightly class that reside in King's Landing and have thier estates elsewhere in the Crownlands. Could be hedge knights. Could be leftover knights from elsewhere who got stuck here at the start of warfare the same way as Balon Swann, Beric Dondarrion and the Redwyne Twins. 6. Not much is known of the other houses, and it is likely that the closer to the border with war zones, the lords were more concerned with keeping their forces close at hand, especially when he learn that some of those houses were raided by Lannisters all the same when they needed supplies, and with the Northmen posing a threat later on with the march on Duskendale, etc. A knight of house Harte is known to have taken part in the battle on the Lannister side, but that's about all. 7. I don't think there were "dozens" of captured ships. Tyrion meets with a dozen captains, including a Baavosi one, who are angry at the capture of thier ships. Behind the line of warships of the Royal Fleet Davos sees the swarm of smaller ships, including everything from rowboats to Cersei's pleasure barge. The fire ships were not captured carracks and cogs, they were rotten hulks. If anything the captains are of the ferries and wherries, with only the Braavosi a question mark. 8. The Shield Islands are not the example, those were patrol longships with a local militia that Victarion was fighting. The war galleys of the Royal Fleet are overwhelmingly using 100 oars, with one man per oar, which comes out as ~4,500 oarsmen. The closest historical examples would give these type of ships additional crew and marines to be ~20 per ship, so add another ~900 men. So a total manpower of ~5,400-5,500 men. Considering that fewer than 12 ships remain including the 5 sent to Dorne, the Lannisters lost ~38 ships. Being right at the center of the wildfire inferno, likely few survived. Casualties would be around ~4,000-4,500 men, not counting how many hundreds more were on the swarm of smaller ships, which were also smack in the center of it all and with little chance to escape. Almost as many as Stannis lost, though roughly the same number of fighting men*. We have no information on any other ship dipping more than 100 oars remaining in King's Landing, and only 4 in Stannis' half of the fleet (Fury with 300 oars took the center of the first line of battle, flanked by Lord Steffon with 200 oars, and Stag of the Sea with 200 oars. Swordfish took the center of the second line and also had 200 oars). 9. Could have sworn I've read about him promising rewards to a picked few to get the ships into position before swimming away, but can't find where. Could be that I remember it from somewhere else. * Of the ~60 war galleys in the first three lines of Stannis' fleet, 30-40 managed to get upstream from the wildfire. At least 8 of the rest beached on the north bank. Even lowballing, that's 38 ships that were not lost, limiting this portion to at most 22x120=2,640 (but let's round that up to ~3,000 with Fury being full to bursting with men and Swordfish being a 200). "a good many" of the Myrish contingent further back managed to beach on the south bank. A bit more vague than the earlier 30-40 of the first two lines. The Myrish contingent was smaller than the first three lines, which makes it smaller than 60 ships. Saan has ~30 ships, of those 25 galleys. Say the Myrish contingent was between these two figures for ~40-45? "a good many" of those would be half? Third? Quarter? Half or more of the first three lines managed to evade the Wildfire, one would assume the same ratio at least with the Myrish contingent beaching on the south bank. None of those ships dipped more than 80 oars, but let's round the total crews on average up to ~100 per Myrish galley, and add ~2,000 to the lower end of the casualty potential. That leaves the sail ships, who would have far smaller crews of a couple dozen. Times ~70 sail ships you'd add ~1,500-2,000 crewmen. Though again, being further downstream means more men had a chance to swim away. So at most Stannis might have lost around ~7,000 men, though likely closer to 5,000-5,500 men from the wildfire.
  9. Nyrhex

    Battle on the Green Fork casualties

    Regarding Roose's ~600 men - Unlikely they would be a bit of cavalry from every house. Roose is not with Robb, his entire force is there. At most the smaller cavalry contingents (like Manderly's) would stay with him to make ~10% while most of the organic forces leave with Robb. It's actually another point against Theon's counting. If Cassel has 2,000 men (according to him, he could have been inflating the numbers a bit to scare Theon), and Ramsay says he brought back thrice as many as the 200 he said he'd bring (600), Theon's statemeny that Cassel had him 5-1 cannot be right, as 5x600=3,000 most of the time, and Ramsay's three times 200 cannot mean 400 never mind how much we strech the definition of thrice. No, it is not stated that the 600 were all cavalry. Good point. The description of the battle was of repeated cavalry attacks, but Theon remarks that from Ramsay's mounted retinue at the gate, only few carried lances, more carried weapons meant for fighting on foot (battleaxes and greatswords). It is entirely possible that the cavalry were just used for exactly what was said - breaking enemy formations every time they had a second to breath, white the host was scattered by the Dreadfort foot. Now I know that factoids can sometimes take forever to get rid of (I still remember how everyone knew that Stafford Lannister had 10,000 men even when the size of his host was never mentioned), but even if Ramsay has his infantry mounted for travel, this would be more than anyone else in the North had shown, so still a bit out there (just less so than before). If indeed Ramsay's force was not 600 cavalry, this is actually relevant to several other issues. 1. Ramsay did a bit more than just swarm unsuspecting infantry with lots of cavalry. At a generic rate of horse to foot (1-3 or ~25%), 600 men would give Ramsay ~150 horse, ~450 foot. But for a garrison it may be as low as ~50 horse to ~550 foot (based on the Karstark example and garrisons usually not having many horsemen). Both versions give him more credit and justify Theon saying that the Dreatfort men were "better led". 2. A common point against Martin in making the Boltons unreasonably strong with an all cavalry garrison for a cheap plot tool is removed. 3. Manderly's boast that he still commands more heavy horse than any other in the North has a new lower limit. If earlier the estimation was that he has more than Bolton's 500 at the Red Wedding, 200 with Steelshanks, and 600 with Ramsay (more than ~1,300), now the lower limit is closer to "more than ~850" (if Ramsay has 150 horse) or "more than ~750" (if Ramsay has 50 horse). From this the rest of his host is shrunk from (going with the rule of 1-3 horse-foot ratio) ~4,000 infantry to ~2,550 infantry or ~2,250 infantry. Then again, it is also never stated that all 200 of Steelshak Walton's men in Jaime's escort are cavalry... We only assume so because we know that Jaime gets to ride to King's Landing. But having a bunch of infantry follow a few mounted men is not unheard of even in the setting. If only ~50 mounted men and not 200, that brings a new lower limit to Manderly of "more than ~600 cavalry and 1,8000 infantry" for his army, not counting the manpower needs of the fleet of ~50 ships.
  10. Nyrhex

    Battle on the Green Fork casualties

    So, going with this calculation, the Stark losses on the Green Fork would have been: ~6,600 infantry if starting Northern host at Moat Cailing was 19,500 with the Manderly force. Of those ~5,500 Northmen, ~1,100 Freys. ~5,100 infantry if starting Northern host at Moat Cailing was 18,000 with the Manderly force. Of those ~4,000 Northmen, ~1,100 Freys. The issue remaining is if the 1,500 Frey foot was all that was left after the Green Fork, or if the Freys send fewer men than they had for another battle. With 1,500 Frey foot, and 400 Frey soldiers in the garrison, that comes to 1,900 Frey infantry. Assuming cavalry losses being zero, that leaves the Freys 2,900 men. Not enough to send 1,500 men north with Roose and 2,000 to lay siege to the Twins. We have an anchor "2,000 spears from the Twins" marching on Riverrun. On the other hand, assuming that was 2,000 spears including local Riverlords who joined because the Freys kept thier relatives as hostages, 1,100 Frey losses on the Green Fork and an upper limit of 500 cavalry losses from Robb's host works and sounds far more reasonable than a total of 1,100 losses between both hosts and all the major battles before the breaking of the alliance.
  11. Nyrhex

    List of houses based on "seed strength"

    Argilac was known for his "famous mane of black hair" when he was younger, before it had gone grey in his old age. No further description of Durrandons anywhere in the books. Orys had black eyes, so deep blue eyes are not from him. Neither are they from Rhaelle (grandmother of Robert, Stannis and Renly), since her parents were Aegon V with his purple eyes, and "Black" Betha with her renowned black eyes. Though there is Jocelyn Baratheon who's daughter had the Targaryen looks, I think that was a mistake not unlike Renly's green eyes turning blue because Martin forgot that they can't be anything else. He just got into it because he wrote Renly wearing green all the time to show how much he is in bed (in more ways than one) with the Tyrells. Every known child of a Baratheon male or female with another Lannister, Florent, or any of Robert's whores is nearly identical. Nothing hints at Rhaenys being a bastard of Jocelyn from another, so I think it is more likely that Martin simply forgot. Ned going through the book of great houses and finds that there are cases of Baratheon kids with other features, and then what? Goes with that to Robert and says "your family only has few cases of blonde kids, so I think your wife is fucking her brother"? The Targaryen look is known to give in to others. Strong, Bracken, Martell looks won over it. Plenty of "dragonseeds" with varied looks. Not the Baratheons though, which is why Ned saw this as proof that Joffrey and Myrcella and Tommen cannot be Robert's. Orys shared the black hair and build with Argilac. Not the eyes, which I think are clearly Durrandon. I think the "Baratheon" looks are purely Durrandon, and Orys just shared black hair and strong build, nothing more. I'll actually go a step further, and say I think the Durrandon looks is so dominant because the Durrandon origin story may hold more truth than myth.
  12. Nyrhex

    Who will get Iron Bank's support if Boltons win?

    Have you read the Theon I gift chapter from TWOW? In case the Iron Bank loses its claimant to the Iron Throne, it would seek another. fAegon would be a natural candidate.
  13. Stannis had 3,000 men on Dragonstone. This should include the marines from both the ships of the Narrow Sea lords, and from the Royal Navy. Given that the ships are usually of 100 oars, 1 man per oar, and given the use of the ram, the closest historical examples give a crew of ~120 including deck crew and marines. So Dragonstone and its lords can raise ~2,500 men without the marines of the Royal Navy. Most of those would be infantry, due to being mostly islands. The 400 cavalry figure comes from Renly rounding up Stannis' mounted force at Storm's End, which he described as "freeriders in boiled leather", not the equal to knights in plate. Stannis say he has 100 knights on Dragonstone who would sooner read than fight, and I think that's a fair figure for the knights of Dragonstone and the Narrow Sea lords. The other 300 are likely part of the 2,000 men who join Stannis' ranks at Storm's End. Either sellswords or local Stormlanders who joined the older Baratheon near the ancestral seat. We know of the presence of Myrish crossbowmen, but it is unclear when they showed up. Overall, Stannis managed to punch well above his weight class. This was due to his position as Master of Ships and the fact that he starts with half the Royal Navy with him, but also to his ability to treat and deal with mercenaries and sellsails and pirates, paying mostly with his iron word and promises. He doubled his force on land, and vastly expanded his naval power. There isn't a speck of gold left on Dragonstone with which to hire new sellswords, or pay the existing ones, within the year. The local manpower (before we start rounding up teens and old men that is) is tapped out, which requires hiring mercenaries. If we compare Dragonstone to the Freys or Boltons, they have a large, strong land force. Stannis has an army that is larger (thanks to marines and sellswords) but overall lacks armored lances to match. He also has an expensive fleet. Had he not had to worry about a fleet, I'd say Stannis' Dragonstone could have matched the Freys and Boltons on land. Without Stannis and a position on the Small Council? Dragonstone's levy is weaker.
  14. Now you are mixing the OP's scenario and what Renly was planning in circular logic. The OP is asking what Renly would have done with certain indivuduals had he won, as in the end of the war. Renly planning on taking the capital and ending the war quickly is not to say that that is how the war would end, and we know from the books that he would not have taken Tommen and Myrcella because they were not in the capital exactly because they would have been sent to protect the Lannister claimants. Renly would not have defeated the Lannisters in one battle, that's a fantasy. The Lannisters did not have the Crownlands, thier contribution was minimal and was summed up in the Battle of the Blackwater as a few hundred knights and sellswords. Even so, the Lannisters, assuming that they still had Tommen, would have still been able to work with the Lannister gold and reputaition to continue the war. Even if Myrcella and Tommen remained behind and were murdered by Renly, do you honestly think that Tywin would bend the knee to Renly? What on earth for? And there was another alliance offer right about this time - Balon. And Tywin now finds that they share an interest. In the meantime you know who else is at war with everyone? Renly. He has the Reach and the Stormlands, but the North and the Riverlands have broken fealty and Robb has already refused him. The Vale would stay put until Littlefinger decides where best to use them (and from guessing that his aim is for ruling Westeros, going back to being Renly's Master of Coin while he pacifies the realm is not likely to happen). Dorne can stay put until they find thier time to strike. Renly would only gain the Crownlands, and then he has an active front with the Starks and Tullys. And again we reach the point where while he knew he would have to fight the Lannisters, he was hoping everyone else would give up and bend the knee to him without the need to bleed for each and everyone's regocnition of him as king. A hope that the books clearly shatter, as Robb refuses to bend in AGOT, and we know that the Vale, Dorne, Stannis on Dragonestone, and the Iron Islands would all defy him rather than join him. Could Renly have taken the capital before the children were gone? No. Because moving faster means that the enemy scouts which gave them the reports you were moving slowly are now going to report that you are moving faster. The scouts by the way ride faster even in ones or twos or even squads, and even if they take the tim to enjoy the countryside's view than an army 90,000 strong would do even if they were force marching the entire way. Unless you were under the illusion that an army 90,000 strong could make a force march and surprise you without the plot doing backflips to disguise your advance (i.e. Jaime losing a few scouts and taking most of his cavalry to chase them into a trap, Vale Clansmen burning the Kingswood with the aid of local guids and manage to kill 100% of Stannis' scouts and provide a smoke screen, etc. Why said smoke screen did not alert Stannis with the massive advancing smoke column, or why the horses and riders did not choke on it? Plot, cause fuck it Martin wanted a Rohirrim charge to the rescue so bad he made several in the books), Renly was never going to take the capital with all three children inside. Hell, even the Lannisters staying in the city during the Blackwater was retarded, they had several gates to flee from but Cersei was already preparing for her death. You don't need a timeline if you are going to ignore what the events of the timeline are. You can't calculate when Renly could have marched faster and then ignore what the counteraction to that would be.
  15. 1. Why can't it only be to reward his lover's family? It has plenty of precedent in both our history and in that of Westeros. You are creating this false image of Cersei wanting to kill Renly without reason out of thin air. The quote is clearly well after Renly is already plotting to remove her and place her children in risk. Do you want civil wars with dead children? Because that's how you get civil wars with dead children. Cersei's remarks regarding Stannis and Renly make perfect sense if the one is a risk that she and her lover/brother would die for treason and her children would be at risk, and if the other is plotting to replace her with another and would also end up placing her children at risk. 2. No, that was already debunked. Renly starts plotting first, worries about Cersei later. You can try and play it as if he was always worried about her all you like, it won't make it so. 3. While I agree that Tywin made more preparations than Renly, and I would also argue that he was behind the hit on Robert exactly becasue he was about to launch a war, you are the one who made the claim that Renly has made many preparations. Prove it. The sum total of Renly's preparations was maybe a couple of weeks of stocking provisions for the road, and coming up with the failed strategy of going at a snail's pace and hoping that most of the fighting would already happen and everyone would join him because he is awesome and all he'll have to do is deal with the weakened winner. Dorne ignores him and allies itself to the Lannisters, Robb refuses to bend the knee to him and is crowned KITN, Balon declares independence just before he hears of Renly's death, Lysa keeps the knights of the Vale home, and Renly himself admits that he read of Stannis' proclemation back in Horn Hill. Open a map, look at where Horn Hill is, and where is Bitterbridge. Renly was just starting his campaign when he learns that Stanins has declared himself king, and yet Renly later boasts to Catelyn that Stannis would side with him in a classic bluff. The hardest part of getting investors is getting the first one. Renly bluffs that he already has Dorne and Stannis in the bag, and Robb would do well to join him as well. But he already knows full well that Stannis is not on his side, and he does not even bother to deal with the Dornish. 4. No, that is an anachronistic lie Robb later makes to guilt-trip Edmure into accepting a deal he has refused before and marry a Frey girl because Robb couldn't keep it in his pants. Let's go over the timeline and I'll debunk this lie. Again: * ACOK starts with Robb and Catelyn in Riverrun. The Blackfish brings news that a new Lannister host is forming in the Westerlands, and it is feared that Tywin would wait in Harrnehal while living off of the Riverlands, and only march later with another host in tandem to destroy Robb. Catelyn thinks that Robb should deal with Renly to draw Tywin's attention while Robb deals with this new host. * Robb sends Catelyn to deal with Renly. * Robb marches west, leaving Edmure and the Riverlords behind, only taking the Frey Cavalry because after the alliance at the Twins they are part of the Northern host. Theon is sent to the Iron Islands to treat with Balon. * Catelyn arrives at Bitterbridge, deals with Renly, news of Stannis arrive, they ride to Storm's End. * Robb passes around the Golden Tooth using a goat pass, and wins at Oxcross. * Renly and Catelyn arrive at Storm's End. Deal with Stannis. Renly orders Catelyn remain and watch how he deals with rebels, after informing her that his offer is merely that Robb is allowed to keep the style of KITN, but would have to bend the knee or be forced to do so. * Renly dies, Catelyn and Brienne flee, Stannis offers Storm's End two weeks to consider his offer. Penrose sends birds to Robb and Joffrey, offering to bend the knee to either if they send aid. * Tyrion and Tywin wager that Stannis would not easily take Storm's End. Tyrion hopes he will have enough time to finish the chain, and Tywin marches west to destroy Robb before Stannis is free to move again. * Catelyn arrives at Riverrun, where she hears of Robb's victory, the loot he is sending back to the Riverlands, and that he split his host into task forces to raid and pillage while he is marching on the Crag. Catelyn is told that Robb had left Edmure with orders to "guard his (Robb's) rear". When arriving at Riverrun she sees the dead bodies of the false envoys sent by Tyrion to release Jaime. Roose has been ordered by Edmure to retake Harrnehal. * Three days later the Battle of the Fords starts. Riverrun gets a letter from Lord Meadows, the new castellan of Storm's End, informing them that the castle has surrendered to Stannis Baratheon after the death of Ser Penrose, and that they have accepted the king's pardon. Stannis is now free to march on the capital. Catelyn wishes to inform Robb, but is told he is outside reach of raven and at last word he was marching on the Crag. * Robb takes the Crag, is injured and is treated by Jeyen Westerling. * Battle of the Fords ends, Catelyn hears of the attack of the Ironborn, the fall of Winterfell and the deaths of Bran and Rickon. Releases Jaime. A day later news arrives from the Crag. Robb, heartbroken over the deaths of his brothers, takes comfort from his caretaker, beds her, and weds her to protect her honor. The Freys abandon Robb's cause as he has broken the deal. * Edmure returns from the battlefield, informs Catelyn that he has placed a bounty on Jaime, as even if she was trusting the same imp who sent false envoys to honor his word, a battle took place at the capital. Stannis was defeated, and Tyrion was among the fallen. * Robb returns to Riverrun with his new wife. In a display of a mummer's skills that impresses Catelyn, he handwaves her treason and get's Catelyn to accept that we do stupid things for love. Catelyn realises that he married the Westerling girl, and right away calls out that he has lost the Freys, which gets a small reaction of Robb to that breaks his facade. This was not worth it, not one bit. The loss of the Freys was a catastrophy, made worse by the fact that the Lannisters are now joined by the power of Highgarden. * Robb goes on about how he fucked up, and maybe if Frey would be reasonable he could make it right again. Catelyn tells him that Frey is not reasonable, and that Robb knows that. Frey wanted a marriage to a king, any of Robb's lords won't do. But that is not right either, as Robb was the son of a lord paramount at the time of the deal, and Frey was making a deal for a marriage to a future lord paramount. He had no idea that Robb would be crowned. The Blackfish arrives and offers they take this to a more private setting. * Once Robb, Catelyn, Edmure and the Blackfish are alone, the Blackfish starts with the attack on Edmure. Both he and Robb work in tandem to erode any resistance, and accuse Edmure of fucking up everything for everyone and basically losing the war because he is an idiot who could not read the stratigic map and they had this whole plan perfectly drawn up if only he had not fucked up. * The order that was ealier "defend my rear" is now suddenly retconed to "hold Riverrun". * The fact that Cat was sent to get Renly to draw Tywin south while Robb was dealing with the host in the west? Fogotton. * The fact that all of Robb's news after the victory at Oxcross was that he was splitting his host to loot and pillage and sending Mormont with cattle to the ravaged Riverlands while he leads a portion of his host to take the Crag? "Looting? Me? How dare you imply that I am a common brigand!". * The fact that Robb could not possibly know that Stannis had taken Storm's End and so could not have made a plan that is based on the fact that Stannis is free to attack the capital because that news only arrives when Tywin is already attacking Edmure's forces at the Battle of the Fords, and Robb would require a rider to inform him only days or a week later? Utterly ignored. * The bold lie that Robb's plan is basically to outrun an enemy army in it's own land, where Tywin is free to use reserves and local forces to block his escape, and in the "unlikely" scenario that they are forced to fight they have found a perfect spot for a pitched battle against a foe at least 3 times thier numbers, again in it's own land but they would not know about it themselves because they suck and don't know thier own land, and Robb would be able to teleport there from any point he would be caught at in the Westerlands? Robb didn't even blink. * And then, when Edmure, sure that his family won't lie to him and his lie-detector clearly not working, asks how can he make amends? "Oh I don't know, how about you marry a Frey girl? You know, that offer you kept refusing? Do this small thing for me and completely save my ass from my bad decisions and we are sqaure". Robb's "plan" is bullshit. If Renly was still alive Robb was still going to be in the West becuase that is what he was doing. He had no plan, he was pillaging the Westerlands because he lacked the strength to take any location of note (the Ironbron had opted to attack the North instead of aiding him in the Westerlands) and only knew that Renly is dead when he was marching on the Crag, and that Stannis is free to march on the capital when Tywin has already failed to cross into the Westerlands. It is completely anachronistic and full with logical fails and bold lies. All simply to get Edmure to agree to marry a Frey and save Robb's alliance with the Freys. He can't order him to do it, so he guilt-trips him to do it. 5. Tyrion ignored him completely. He was confidant that Renly would not even unlimber his siege engines and Tywin would be the hammer that breaks his host on the anvil that is the city's walls. FFS, even the funds and resources to arm and equipt the new City Watch was diverted to Tyrion's chain and wildfire. The city had no chance to stop even a minimal landfall of the enemy and so Tyrion banked on stopping Stannis at the waterfront. And Renly having more than enough men to defend against the Dornish is not the bloody point. The point is that he was sure that they would join him, reading the political map entirely backwards. The Dornish hate the Tyrells far more than they hate the Lannisters. A Tyrell queen goes completely against Doran's interests, blood feud be damned. 6. No, his strategy failed well before that and I think I have done more than enough to prove it. Shadowbaby just killed any chance that he could unfuck the clusterfuck of his own making because he was dead. 7. Wait, your argument is that Tywin or Renly was expecting the Vale to join? Tywin ignored all possibility of the Vale or the Freys to join the Starks. Even when he hears of Frey banners in Robb's host a full day before the Battle of the Green Fork, he is surprised that Frey actually joined. He initially ignores Lysa as an option, and it is evident in the idiotic march to deal with Robb's army. If Robb slows down a bit and Tywin marches to meet him while a Vale army decends from the mountains behind him he is finished. He completely ignores them until he sees that he was too confidant. Renly was sure he could bully everyone to join him but he was far from a threat to the Vale anytime soon. And that is after Renly is crowned. In the same chapter it is said that news arrived that Renly has been crowned at Highgarden two weeks ago. No, I am arguing that Renly wanting to replace Cersei has no relation to her children being twincest bastards, and so the aggressor here is Renly. I've proven already that your quote shows no such thing as Cersei wanting to murder him just because, and you keep insisting that it does. You are the one who repeats "RENLY FELT THREATENED" without proof. I get that as well. But the armed bank robber does get to complain if the cop breaks into his house and shoots him. It has no relation, Renly was not plotting to replace Cersei because of her twincest trio, he was doing it for his lover. Your argument makes zero sense, as you are combining elements that are not related here. And yes, Cersei says that she wanted to deal with Robert's brothers well after both were positioning themselves as threats to her and her children. The quote 100% does not support your interpretation. “Jon Arryn put Robert Baratheon in her bed, and before he died he’d begun sniffing about her and Jaime as well. Eddard Stark took up right where Arryn had left off; his meddling had forced her to rid herself of Robert sooner than she would have liked, before she could deal with his pestilential brothers.” Eddard Stark's continuation of Jon Arryn's investigation had forced her to get rid of Robert sooner than she would have liked, because she still wanted to deal with his "pestilential" brothers. This decision, in late 298 AL, would be at least a year after Renly started his plotting to replace her with Marg, and at least a year after Stannis has been seen tagging along with Jon Arryn for his investigation and fleeing to Dragonstone to do gods know what. Come the fuck on, how are you reading this as "Cersei admits she is an evil bitch who just straight up wants to kill people for shits and giggles"? Are you for real right now? Your argument is based on a false reading of a simple text, you have failed to grasp the meaning of the words you are reading. Your argument is now that a text means something it does not. You give it no context, you display it in a vaccum, "here, she says she wanted to kill Robert's brothers, and she only wanted to kill him later". What kind of an amateurish joke is this? Again, if Renly managed to get Robert to put aside Cersei, he places her children in risk. Risk of losing thier position as Robert's heirs, but also risk of thier lives. Remember the Dance of the Dragons? How did that turn for the children of two wives? I don't even have to justify this, I am not making a moral based argument. Leaving aside that Renly declaring himself king and promising Catelyn that he would give her Cersei's head for the crime of killing Ned for the exact coup attempt Renly suggested and the treason he is commiting, I don't have to argue that you have to feel threatened by something illegal or immoral to really feal you are threatened. Cersei felt threatened, a threat to her family's position, to her position, to her children's position, to her children's lives. Regardless of them being bastards or no, what mother wouldn't try and protect them? This is as cut and dry as possible. Renly feels risk to his life after making himself a threat to Cersei. There is exactly zero proof that he was in any danger if he did not make a move against Cersei. Ned's injury takes a turn for the worse and Pycelle can't do anything about it. Stannis has an accident. Robert dies of old age or in his ~40s due to his unhealthy lifestyle, and Joffrey is seated on the Iron Throne and Renly is still the Master of Laws in his Small Council and Lord Paramount of the Stormlands. Because there is no bloody reason for Cersei to do anything with him. The more suspicious deaths the more questions are raised. She has a vested interest in just gritting her teeth and hoping that Robert dies sooner rather than later, why on earth would she be going on a killing spree when there is no threat? It makes no sense. If you wish to further claim that Renly was already in danger from Cersei regardless of his plotting, please, bring forth proof. But try and make it a little better than misreading a quote in a vaccum and completely ignoring that it was said well after Renly has made the first move. TL:DR Thread derailment.