Frey family reunion

Poisoning Joffrey would create a bigger stir. But Tyrion choking to death would still probably cause quite a stir as well. And once again, I think we’re overestimating how hard it would have been for Sansa to have slipped out without anyone even choking to death. We hear from the Kingsguard just how hard it was to keep track of everyone during the wedding especially at the time of the Pie. The only one really paying attention to Sansa at the wedding, was Tyrion. And if he was the one choking to death, he’d be in a pretty bad position to note her leaving early. And the one big benefit for both Olenna and Petyr in Tyrion being the victim, is that Sansa suddenly becomes free to marry. If Tyrion choked to death, would there have been any real suspicion to go around? After all don’t forget the whole point of the poison. The plotters were hoping that it would appear to all that the victim choked to death on his food. It was Joffrey’s death and Cersei’s accusation against Tyrion, that first laid the idea that a poison was used. Cersei would not have made that accusation if Tyrion had choked to death. Unfortunately for Tyrion, his death wouldn’t lead to a lot of questions because he wasn’t terribly popular, even among his own family. The only real negative for Tywin would be that his death would free up Sansa to be taken to Highgarden for marriage. But it probably wouldn’t be a big enough negative to dare lose Highgarden as an ally. Which is the whole reason they had to rush the marriage of Tyrion and Sansa. They knew if push came to shove, they couldn’t stop Olenna from taking Sansa to Highgarden to marry her off.

We have one very particular reason to doubt the official story, in that GRRM specifically told us that he may have some surprises in store with regards to the conclusion that Olenna poisoned Joffrey. As for practical reasons to doubt this version, we have one very significant one, in that Olenna probably couldn’t have reached the chalice to drop the poison. The chalice was drunk without issue by Joffrey and then placed on top of the table in front of Tyrion. When Tyrion was told by Joffrey to serve him, Tyrion had to stand up on his chair to reach the chalice. Olenna who is about as tall as Tyrion would have had a lot of trouble to have dropped the poison into the chalice. Especially since she would have had to have once again left her place at the Dias to do so. It’s possible that Margaery could have poisoned the chalice. And maybe that’s the surprise GRRM alluded to. Olenna did give a specific look to Margaery when Sansa told her about Joffrey being a monster. Perhaps Olenna taught Margaery the fine art of poisoning and left it up to Margaery to rid herself of her future husband if that’s what she wanted to do. Of course, I still suspect that George may be playing with Sansa’s POV, and having her repress her own actions at the wedding. After all, there is really only one person who would have been in the best position to have either dropped the poison in Joffrey’s chalice or Tyrion’s pie, and that would be Sansa.

I’m not completely sure why you’re being this stubborn on the issue. You’re basically arguing that it was impossible for Petyr to have heard the bells ringing even though you admittedly can’t answer where exactly Petyr’s ship was coming from when it came upon Sansa’s rowboat. Now, I don’t know exactly where Petyr’s ship was coming from either, but my argument is that based on the geography of the bay, the direction Sansa’s rowboat was going in, and the fact that Petyr’s ship came out of the dark, thus not out of the East which would have put him further from King’s Landing, makes it very possible that he was positioned close enough at King’s Landing to have heard the bells. It’s also the only reason that Petyr could have been that certain that Joffrey was poisoned. I don’t care how arrogant he is or how good he thought the plan was, the simple fact of the matter is, the poisoning itself was outside of his hands, he had to rely on others to do the dirty work. The only thing that would have made him certain that Joffrey was dead was the sound of the bells. The same confirmation that Sansa had after she fled King’s Landing. This argument kind of reminds me on the attacks on the Braavosi Lemon tree issue. There are posters scoffing at the discrepancies having any meaning, even after GRRM himself confirms that yes, it does mean something that he can’t reveal yet. Here, you’re arguing that there can be no other explanation other than Olenna having poisoned Joffrey. Even though the author himself says that he may have some surprises in store for us concerning the identity of Joff’s poisoner. Since you’re not really coming up with any possible surprises it seems a bit presumptuous for you to scoff at those of us who are.

There are three characters that GRRM frames in a window looking down (like an outsider) on the events taking place outside the window. Jon, Bran, and Baelish. So make with that what you want.

No, if Petyr was further from King’s Landing than Sansa he would have been coming in from the East, but he wasn’t. He came out of the darkness after the sun had already started to rise in the East, thus Petyr was not coming from further out in the Bay. If anything he and Sansa’s rowboat were of an equal distance from King’s Landing right before they came together. See above. It’s not a big leap at all. Petyr is sure that Joffrey was dead because George had the bells ringing in King’s landing. So if Joffrey was the intended target, than the bells confirmed Petyr’s plan was successful. If Joffrey wasn’t the intended target, than Petyr could obviously conclude that the poisoner(s) decided to change their target. And Petyr could fairly easily conclude that the poisoner would have also had a motive to poison Joffrey even if he had hoped they would poison Tyrion. According to the assumed version of events, Sansa is never told that Joffrey or anyone else is going to be poisoned. She’s just told that when an opportunity presents itself, get to the Godwood. Allegedly, unbeknownst to Sansa the plotters are going to present her with that opportunity by poisoning someone at the wedding. But the poisoning itself is out of the hands of Littlefinger. If Olenna was supposed to be the poisoner, it’s certainly possible that the old tiny lady, couldn’t find an opportunity to poison Joffrey, or she was caught in the act, or she simply changed her mind. But Sansa could still have found an opportunity to have left the wedding without the poisoning. Even the Kingsguards admit that they couldnt’ keep track of what people were doing because of the chaotic nature of the wedding. And we hadn’t even gotten to the bedding yet. Regardless, Sansa’s presence shouldn’t have been enough to have confirmed to Petyr that Joffrey was in fact dead. Thus we have the bells ringing.

What George is saying is that he’s not going to change what he intended because some people may have figured out the mystery. That’s not what I’m suggesting. I’m suggesting that George is allowing for the possibility of a surprise twist in what he wrote. And at the very least giving him multiple options of how he wants the story to go. When I put together my theory that Sansa may in fact actually be the poisoner, I very painstakingly quoted all of the portions of the text that might allow George to take this route. That doesn’t mean I necessarily think he’s going to go with this. I’m just highlighting portions of the text that would allow him to adjust the story to that outcome if he decides to go that route. It’s why George describes himself as a gardener (I think). He gives himself several different options to branch his story out in various directions. So when he says there may be a surprise I think he’s being very literal as opposed to being coy. There may be a surprise and Olenna might not have poisoned Joffrey, or it may be just as it appears to the careful reader. George has two books to decide what direction he wants to go in.

No, not really. King’s Landing is a pretty big place. Sansa is coming from the the channel which is south of King’s Landing and heads in a northerly direction. So presumably she may be heading in a northerly direction gradually away from the city. Petyr’s ship probably doesn’t come from the East because it’s not shown by the rising sun. Instead it probably comes from somewhere North of Sansa. And perhaps too, like Sansa they are heading in a direction south gradually sailing away from King’s Landing. And they meet up further out in the bay. I think based on the available evidence it’s most likely that Sansa’s rowboat is heading Northeast, while Petyr is traveling Southeast. They meet up in the bay, and Petyr’s ship turns East when they meet up with the rowboat. The issue is that the bells were one of the last things she heard. So presumably Petyr’s ship, which is also on the move would have also been in a position to hear the sound of the bells carrying over the water, even if it was before they finally came in contact with Sansa’s boat. I’m not talking about Joff surviving the consumption of the poison, I’m talking about the poisoners being caught in the act. So let’s assume that Olenna was caught with the poison or caught trying to poison Joffrey’s cup, that still would have created a commotion which could have allowed Sansa to escape. Thus even if Joffrey was the intended target it was the bells that confirmed to Petyr that the poisoning was successful.

It’s simple, George doesn’t want to reveal the possible surprises he may still have in store for the Purple wedding. So the question is if this is a closed case as you suggest, why does George specifically state that while it appears Olenna poisoned Joffrey he may have some additional surprises.

You may have to wonder if George thinks this “accepted version of events” is necessarily the only possible version: Once again GRRM’s own words from a Rolling Stones interview: So if George has gone out of his way for the reader to accept this as the only version of events that is possible, then what are the additional surprises that he may reveal? I think George himself is telling us that the mystery of Joffrey’s death may have been revealed, or may not have been revealed, depending on what George decides to do in future books. So I think George has left enough wiggle room to throw us a curveball.

Let’s assume that Littlefinger was in on the plot to kill Tyrion. He also has another motivation for wanting to create a distraction to allow for Sansa to escape. So Littlefinger wants the poisoning to happen at a public event that everyone is going to be at to allow Sansa to escape. So in the scenario that Olenna was going to do the dirty work for him, he tells Olenna that Sansa will unwittingly (perhaps) provide the poison on the day of the wedding through the hairnet. When Olenna sees Sansa with the hairnet, Olenna tells Sansa that she is going to take her to Highgarden on the next day. Olenna’s motivation is to to marry Sansa to her son Willas, and she knows that Sansa will be free of her marriage to Tyrion if indeed Tyrion was the intended target. Or, in a scenario that I find more interesting and made a fairly lengthy post about, there is a possibility that none of the plotters, either Littlefinger or Olenna were willing to personally dirty their hands and the do the deed. But instead the poisoner was Sansa, and George had Sansa repress what she did directly in the next chapter as she swallowed a fit of hysterical laughter when she was told that she had a good heart. In which case, Olenna would have provided the poison to Sansa through Sansa’s hairnet, which would allow Sansa to then drop it into her husband’s food or wine, since she would have been the one with the best opportunity to do so.

I would note that the passage is that the bells were fading away, not that they had faded away. And just like Sansa is traveling in the bay, so is Littlefinger. And we also know that he wasn’t traveling from the East, where the sun was rising, because his ship came out of the darkness. So George also goes out of his way to show that Petyr wasn’t coming from further out in the Bay. So no, I don’t think the author wanted us to think that Petyr couldn’t have learned of Joff’s death from the ringing of the bells. In fact just the opposite. If Petyr wasn’t privy to exactly what happened inside the chapel how could he have been so sure of Joffrey’s death, whether or not Joffrey was the intended target. After all an attempted poisoning could have been a sufficient distraction to allow Sansa to escape unnoticed. So I think the bells were confirmation that it was now publicly known that the King was dead which is why Petyr knew it for a certainty when he had Dontos killed.

We actually have the benefit of the author specifically being asked about the Purple Wedding in an interview with Entertainment Weekly: So once again, how does that jive with the idea that Littlefinger wanted Joffrey poisoned, wanted everyone to realize Joffrey was poisoned, and laid the groundwork for Tyrion to be blamed for it? If Joffrey died from a poison, no matter how quick it was going to cause a disturbance from everyone around them, which would enable Sansa to escape. But here, a poison was used that the murderers would hope would go undetected. (Which begs the question, how was Littlefinger planning on freeing Sansa from Tyrion’s marriage if everything went as planned and the realm thought Joffrey choked to death on food?) And now perhaps, if Joffrey was the target we could expect there would be a more thorough investigation as to how he died. But if Tyrion was the intended target do we really think there would be such an investigation?

Maybe that’s going to be in the second half of the season, and they don’t have the visual effects finished yet? Otherwise, I’m with you. I assumed that they would hype Winterfell and a Targaryen(ish)/Stark(ish) type of relationship.

I think you’re discounting the reason that GRRM made the bells ring so soon after Joffrey’s death. It doesn’t terribly make sense that Sansa would have heard the bells so soon after her flight from the wedding feast especially since they were coming from across the city. But it becomes necessary if George wants a public acknowledgment that the King was dead. Which I think points to the fact that he wants to give Petyr a way of knowing about Joff’s death independent of being told by one of the eye witnesses. But I think that you are assuming that the ship is coming from further out in the sea when it reaches Sansa, and I’m not sure that this assumption is correct. I had to pull an image of King’s Landing to make sure I was properly oriented. But assuming the images are accurate, Sansa’s rowboat would have been traveling in a northerly direct if they were traveling along the channel towards Blackwater Bay. (I had earlier assumed that they would have been traveling in an easterly direction but that’s not apparently correct). That direction is perhaps even further confirmed by the fact that Peter’s ship comes out of the darkness towards them. That occurs as the sun is starting to rise in the East. So presumably the ship isn’t heading from the east (further out in the bay) where it would have been lit by the rising sun, but instead it is heading from the North, which allows it to appear out of the darkness. Now the question is did Petyr ever actually leave King’s Landing? If he had boarded the Merling King as it was parked outside of the channel, then he would have been hanging out on the ship an awfully long time. Tyrion comments that Petyr had left a fortnight before in his POV, which occurs even before the Martells made their arrival in King’s Landing. So that’s quite a while to be on the ship, but it’s still a possibility. The other possibility is that he was hiding out in one of his brothels, the same place perhaps that he hid Cat or hid the dwarves that were used at the wedding tourney. But regardless all we know is that his ship was traveling to meet Sansa and it was probably not traveling from further out in the bay, which would have put it to Sansa’s east, but traveling from somewhere north of Sansa’s location which could have put it anywhere within the vicinity of King’s Landing. Which also means that when he turned his ship right before Sansa boards he probably turns it from a southerly direction to facing the East which is where they would have had to turn to leave the Bay.

Nah, we just know that they meet up in the bay, and we know that Littlefinger had never actually left King’s Landing. There is no reason that they were parked deep out in the Bay. Petyr wasn’t on a recognizable ship, he was on a simple merchant vessel, so there is no reason they couldn’t have stayed anchored near King’s Landing. The only thing that Pety wouldnt’ have wanted anyone seeing is Sansa getting on that particular ship, which is why the two boats would have rendezvoused further out in the Blackwater.

The problem is that Littlefinger’s ship wasn’t anchored at that location, just like the rowboat, it too was moving across the water, just in the opposite direction. It’s very possible that the ship was originally anchored in port or much closer to King’s Landing.

No we don’t know that LF had foreknowledge of Joff’s death. We know he had knowledge of Joff’s death after the fact. We also know that the bells were ringing in King’s Landing before Sansa left the city. We also know that the ringing of the bells carried over the water. We also know that the ringing of the bells signaled the death of a king. LF’s ship was traveling from the east while Sansa’s rowboat was traveling from the west, when they came together. It’s very conceivable that LF’s ship was either docked or closer to the city when Joffrey died. Hence, LF could have been given an audible clue that Joffrey had died. The problem with Littlefinger plotting to poison Joffrey, is that Littlefinger had no motive to kill Joffrey. He certainly had at least two motives for wanting Tyrion dead. We also know that despite Littlefinger’s boasting of having cast suspicion on Tyrion, his dwarves were not the reason that suspicion was cast on Tyrion. It was Cersei’s accusation apparently born from her own experiences with Tyrion’s hostility to Joff coupled with the prophecy from the Wood’s witch that caused her to cast the blame on Tyrion. Nothing to do with Littlefinger. We also know that a poison was used that was supposed to make everyone believe that the recipient of the poison died choking on a morsel of food. Not exactly a good poison to use to also try and falsely implicate someone else.

I’m of the camp that Ned isn’t some mastermind using layers of deceit to keep Jon safe. I think the answer is much simpler. Assuming that Ned and Howland brought Jon to Starfall, then Wylla was Jon’s wetnurse who kept him fed. (Now what happened to Wylla’s child is a good question. ) But regardless, if Jon was in fact Lyanna’s child, and Ned wanted to keep that fact a secret, then the easiest explanation at Starfall was that Wylla was Jon’s mother. Ned makes the false affirmation at Starfall naming both himself and Wylla as Jon’s parents. Lying and false affirmations don’t come easy for Ned, so when he arrives with the child at Winterfell, he just makes it known that Jon is his blood and his son and uses his prerogative as Lord of Winterfell not to speak of it further. The only one that Ned ever actually has to answer to is his King, Robert. So that’s why Ned is forced to repeat the lie he told in Starfall when he first falsely affirmed Jon as his son.

I understand this position. If you can’t accept that the author would make a POV who represses her memories, then this theory isn’t for you, and I would anticipate probably not for most people. I think the big problem most would have is that the repressed memories would have to occur almost in real time. I think readers have an easier time with the idea that Eddard may have repressed memories from the fairly distant past concerning Lyanna, but having Sansa repress a memory from an event that just happened might be too much. I get it. A while back George responded to a question concerning the purple wedding, where the question pretty much assumed that Olenna did the poisoning. GRRM responded and then added that Olenna taking credit as being the poisoner was from the show only, and he might have a surprise up his sleeve. Of course that also implies that he might not have a surprise up his sleeve. ETA here’s the exact quote: I think if George does give a twist, I think Sansa actually being the poisoner may very well be the twist that he’ll give us. I just think he actually did lay the ground work for it in the text, which hopefully I pointed out. Of course maybe he decides not to give a twist, in which case I assume that the event played as Littlefinger describes. But as for Littlefinger, one thing that needs to be kept in mind is that he wasn’t actually at the wedding. So of course there is the possibility that he’s just as much in the dark as to why Joffrey was poisoned and who poisoned Joffrey, as Sansa claims to be. But of course Littlefinger is never going to let on, especially to Sansa, that he’s not in complete control of the situation. And the one thing the guy is very good at is thinking quickly on his feet. So perhaps he either thinks Sansa is playing her own game by feigning ignorance, which he plays along with, or he may genuinely not know who would have poisoned Joffrey if not Sansa, unless of course it was the one other person at the wedding who would have at some point possessed poison, and also possessed a motive for killing Joffrey. But as for your last point, no I don’t think I agree with it. There is no reason to assume that the audience would be laser focused on Sansa or what she was doing sitting next to Tyrion. But for the moment, let’s say you’re right and everyone is ignoring the king, the queen, the spectacle and everything else and just staring at the dias where Tyrion and Sansa are seated. That’s where Olenna would have had to go to poison the food or drink that Joffrey either ate or drank. Wouldn’t that mean that her presence at that exact moment also be noted? And the one thing that gets forgotten is just how small Olenna is. And she uses a walking cane. If she poisoned Joffrey’s wine it had to be after it was laid on the table in front of Tyrion. For Tyrion to pick retrieve the chalice he had to stand on the table to get it. How does the equally tiny Olenna put herself in a position to drop the poison in Joffrey’s chalice? And how would she do it without attracting attention to herself?

You're twisting things up a bit too much. Olenna tells Sansa that she is leaving the day after next and wishes that invites Sansa to accompany her. In other words, leave with me the day after next. Because the hairnet is a only contingency plan, in case the Lannisters marry her to Tyrion. If Sansa is never married there is no need for a poisoning and Sansa just gets to have a nice hairnet with rare amethysts from Asshai. But no poison. Olenna has no intention of personally poisoning anyone, because she's not going to risk getting caught. The whole plot would be to get a desperate Sansa to do their dirty work for them. But Olenna is never going to personally contact Sansa with regards to the hairnet because it's too risky. Dontos remains the middle man both for Olenna and Petyr, because he can always be silenced after the fact, and no one is going to believe a drunk Dontos over Olenna. Dontos first gives Sansa the hairnet with the instruction to bring it to the wedding. That it will help free her. Then when she's married to Tyrion and truly desperate, Dontos approaches her again and tells her that Olenna is going to put something in her hairnet on the day of the wedding. She needs to drop what she's given int into Tyrion's food or drink and she'll be free of her marriage. What Olenna perhaps doesn't know is that Dontos is also passing on information for Petyr, for Sansa to find Dontos when everyone at the wedding is distracted and he'll get her out of King's Landing. When Olenna sees Sansa at the wedding with the hair net, that's Olenna's sign that Sansa is willing to go through with Dontos' instructions. Then and only then does Sansa get the poison through the hair net. Olenna also adds some very subtle encouragements of her own as she replaces the stone with the poison. Once again it's a contingency plan to make sure Sansa is available for marriage after Margaery's marriage to Joffrey takes place. Olenna would suspect that the Lannisters aren't going to maintain their hold of Sansa after her engagement to Joffrey is broken by marrying her to another Lannister, most probably Tyrion. Pety is counting on this happening. Now whatever verbal dance Petyr and Olenna play at Highgarden is anyone's guess. But it comes away with both agreeing that even if Sansa is married, there are ways that the marriage can be ended. Once Dontos becomes the go between, whether that be from Olenna to Sansa or Petyr to Sansa or both, Pety is always going to be kept informed about how Olenna is going to free up Sansa, if in fact they didn't spell it out to each other from the beginning. Which they might have if it only concerned Tyrion's death, but I'm fairly certain woudld not have if it concerned Joffrey's death. And no, Olenna's reasons for killing Tyrion aren't stronger than Petyr's. That's complete hogwash. Olenna's only motivation in killing Tyrion is to free up Sansa for Willas. Petyr has his own grandiose plans for an unmarried Sansa, but he also has a very personal motivation for killing Tyrion for when Tyrion played him for a fool in ACOK. And Petyr was also most probably responsible for Tyrion's attempted murder at the Battle of the Blackwater. This whole thing about Olenna trying to stop Tywin from taking the North, is your complete fan fiction. There's nothing to suggest this, other than Olenna wants Winterfell for her House. That's all there is to it. This is a power grab by House Tyrell, this has nothing to do with some noble scheme to save the realm from the Lannisters. Sansa has always been a valuable prize. Especially after Bran and Rickon are supposedly killed. Because that left her after Robb. And since Robb was in active war against the Iron Throne, it's pretty clear that if or when Robb lost Robb wasn't going to be alive to take Winterfell. That means Sansa has always been the key to Winterfell even before the Red Wedding. She's an extremely valuable prize, and that's not even taking into her account her Stark bloodline which I'm sure Olenna would also covet for her House. Her House still having a bit of an inferiority complex despite their status as the Head of the Reach. But yes, Sansa's marriage does force Olenna's hand into poisoning Tyrion, but that doesn't mean Olenna is going to personally drop the poison. It's too risky and Olenna would have no reason to believe that she would have the opportunity to do it without being caught. Manipulating Sansa to do it, though is a different story. Let Sansa take the risk, and have the poisoner be the one person that would be in the best position to poison Tyrion. Which has always been the weakest part of your theory that Olenna directly poisoned Tyrion. GRRM gave us no information that Olenna was in a position to drop the poison in Tyrion's pie. We know Olenna and Margaerys walked over when Joffrey was humiliating Tyrion with the wine, but we dont' have any reason to believe that she was still there after the pie came out, or that she had ever gotten close enough to have access to Tyrion's food. In reality, there is only one person that we know for 100% certainty was in a position to either poison Tyrion's pie, or poison Joffrey's goblet before he took his fatal swallow, and that's Sansa. Ummm, what? I'm sorry this makes no sense. Killing Tyrion doesnt' stalemate House Lannister. There's a ton of Lannisters out there they could have remarried Sansa to. None of this diminishes Tywin's power in the slightest. Tywin is the undisputed head of House Lannister, including uncles, cousins, ect. Whatever Lannister they would have married Sansa to after Tyrion's death would have still delivered Winterfell into the House Lannister's treasure chest. And I'm still not sure why you think that Sansa couldn't be married to Willas after Tyrion's death. You've never explained that. For all I know Olenna, has a stockpile of poison, but why bring more than one crystal to the wedding? She's only planning on one person being poisoned, so having more than one poison crystal does is create a chance of being caught with poison that causes symptoms of choking at a wedding where someone chokes to death. And her reason for passing it to Sansa is simple, as stated numerous times. Sansa has the motive to poison Tyrion, and Sansa has the opportunity to poison Tyrion, since she's the only one sitting next to Tyrion other than Garlan Tyrell. And Garlan doesnt' seem like the type that would agree to poison Tyrion. Olenna doesn't have the opportunity to do it, at least no unobserved. Remeber she's not much taller than Tyrion, and not terribly mobile. How you expect her to find a way to Tyrion's side to poison him without anyone observing this is anyone guess. Plus, why would she take the chance of doing it herself and getting caught. Like Petyr said, "clean hands". Always get someone else to do your dirty work for you. That's what Olenna wants from Sansa.

Except that doesn't make any sense. Don't forget the purpose of using the Strangler. It's purpose is to be dissolved in wine and make it look like the recipient choked on his food. Not that he was poisoned. So why try to frame Tyrion for a poisoning and then use a poison that makes it look like the victim wasn't poisoned? The other problem was that it wasn't the jousting dwarves that implicated Tyrion, it was Cersei. And as we find out Cersei had been convinced by a childhood prophecy that Tyrion was going to murder her children. Which is why Cersei is the only one that comes to the conclusion that Tyrion poisoned Joffrey. There is no way that Petyr would have been aware of any of this. Had Cersei not pointed the finger at Tyrion, it's very possible that they would have thought that Joffrey choked on his food. In other words, Littlefinger was full of crap when he told Sansa that. But Littlefinger need to make it look like he's in complete control of the situation. And Littlefinger is very good at thinking on his feet, as we saw with how he used the valyrian dagger to his advantage. So Littlefinger claims credit for Joffrey's death (even though he has nothing to gain) and with implicating Tyrion, which he does have something to gain, but there was no way he could have known that Tyrion would have been blamed until after the fact. I think the true purpose of the jousting dwarves was something even more sinister. He was trying to further humiliate Sansa about being married to a dwarf, to make it easier for her to poison Tyrion at the wedding.

Yes, go back and read my theory. This was my initial sticking point with this theory because I always assumed that the amethysts in the hairnet were all poison. And if Sansa was the poisoner how would Pety know that Olenna fooled with the hairnet. But then it occurred to me, that the hair net that Sansa was given could actually be what it was purported to be, a hair net with black amethysts from Asshai. But the magic in the hairnet lay in the fact that they looked just like the Strangler crystal. Thus, perhaps, Olenna did not receive the poison from Sansa at the wedding from her hairnet, but perhaps the reverse, Olenna provided the poison to Sansa by replacing one of the stones in her hairnet with the Strangler poison. And Sansa knew that she was supposed to drop this replaced stone into Tyrion's wine when the food was being eaten. To make it look like he choked on his food, and thus freeing her from her marriage. So the reason that Pety knew that Olenna fiddled with Sansa's hairnet, is that was always part of their plan, first concocted in Highgarden. That they would give Sansa the hairnet, Olenna would bring the poison, and transfer it to the hairnet on the day of the wedding. And they concocted this plan because they knew that with Joffrey's new marriage pact with Margaery, Sansa would be free to marry and Sansa would be too tempting a prize for Olenna to ignore. Pety also would have convinced Olenna, that the Lannisters would undoubtably just marry Sansa to Tyrion before Olenna could have a chance to get Sansa to Highgarden to marry Willas. Or perhaps Olenna would have come up with this on her own. Either way, my guess is that this impediment wasn't a big deal for Olenna. Because she had been rumored to use poison before. So that's how she solves her problems. And Petyr is undoubtably aware of this. Petyr allows Olenna to concoct the plan, all the while plotting to double cross her by using the poisoning as a way to smuggle Sansa on to his ship. But they wouldnt' give the poison to Sansa until she agreed to go along with the plan. And both Pety and Olenna believed that being married to the disfigured, despised, dwarf, who's family destroyed Sansa's family would be sufficient motivation for her to go along with it. So when Olenna sees Sansa with the hairnet on the day of the wedding, that had to be confirmation to her that Sansa was going to go along with the plan. And Olenna further tries to motivate Sansa, as she replaces the stone in her hairnet with the poison, by reminding her of her brother's murder, her being taken to Highgarden, and all of the food that Tyrion was going to eat.

Except that who is going to set aside her marriage to Tyrion for her? Certainly not the King, whether it be Joffrey or Tommen. The Lannisters control the kingdom and they don't want to give up Sansa. So they aren't going to allow the marriage to be annulled, certainly not so Sansa could marry Willas. And of course at some point the marriage may get consummated. The Lannisters sure were pushing hard for it. If push came to shove, Sansa couldn't refuse Tyrion. So her only way out is to go through with a plan whereby it looks like Tyrion chokes to death on a morsel of food, and Sansa scoots out of King's Landing, hopefully to either the North or Highgarden where she'll be free to remarry. Yes when Dontos first gives her the hairnet, he only says that the hairnet is magical, and it will get her home and it will get her justice. My theory is that Sansa was fully informed as to what she needed to do only after she was married to Tyrion. At that point she'd be desperate enough to do what she needed to free herself of the marriage. And in this case, she would be told that Olenna would replace one of her stones and she needed to drop that replaced stone into Tyrion's wine when the food was served. And this was going to free her from her marriage. Now this conversation would have occurred "off screen" so the reader wasn't privy to it. But this conversation would have occurred between the Tyrion chapter where she was married to Tyrion and before the Sansa chapter where she was preparing for the day of the wedding. That's why on the day of the wedding we get these thoughts from Sansa: In other words, she knew that on that day she would either rid herself of her marriage to Tyrion and escape King's Landing, or be caught in the attempt to do so and be executed. Either way her suffering would be over. And the only way that she knew she'd be rid of her marriage to Tyrion is that her dropping the replaced stone into his wine or food was actually poison. Undoubtably she knew this even if it wasn't completely spelled out for her. And she knew she wouldn't be executed just by trying to escape King's Landing. But she would be executed if she was caught trying to poison Tyrion. But then after she committed the act, which was either attempting to poison Tyrion but fate intervened and her poisoned pie ended up in Joffrey's mouth. Or she successfully poisoned Joffrey by dropping the stone in his goblet. The realization of what she did was too much for her and she represses what she's done. If Sansa was truly ignorant of the plan to poison Joffrey, there was no reason for Sansa to assume that Joffrey had been poisoned. That's the point of using the Strangler, it's supposed to make it look like the recipient choked on his own food. That should have been Sansa's only thought at the time, that Joffrey was choking on the pie he wolfed down. But instead her gaze immediately goes to the empty socket on her hair net. There shoudln't have been any reason for her eye to go there and immediately equate it with Joffrey's death, unless deep down in her sub conscious she knew the significance of the empty socket, that it contained poison given to her by Olenna and she was responsible for getting it in the pie or the wine that Joffrey consumed.

I think I’ve already address this. Sansa had every motivation in the world to poison Tyrion because it freed her from the Lannisters and the hell that went along with it. While Tyrion wasn’t a monster to her, her marriage to Tyrion left her to Joffey’s mercies. Remember, Joffrey telling Sansa that he was still going to have his way with her after her marriage to Tyrion. In her mind her only way free of the Lannisters and thus free of Joffrey was getting rid of Tyrion, and hopefully escaping either to back to the North or to Highgarden where she’d be married off to someone who could protect her. Joffrey made it clear to her that Tyrion wasn’t going to be able to protect her from him. But I’m not sure even with that motivation, Sansa could have gone along with the poisoning. At least not poisoning Tyrion, who had always been somewhat kind to her. But then just when perhaps she decided that she wasn’t going to use the poison, Joffrey comes up to their table, and lays is chalice right in front of her and Tyrion. So all of a sudden someone who she truly did hate and despise had opened himself up to being the victim of the poison she possessed. That’s why I think the choice of the poison being in the pie or the wine is so interesting. In reality it could really reveal a lot about Sansa’s character. If she ultimately decided to poison Tyrion she’d have to put it in his pie. Take a look at that chapter, Tyrion was out of wine and was about to ask the serving girl for more, when Joffrey brought in the dwarves and ended up dumping his wine on Tyrion. Tyrion watches them cut the pie and serve it, and then tells Sansa that they were leaving. The only thing in front of Tyrion at that time was his pie, Tyrion never did end up asking for some more wine. So if Joffrey was poisoned from the pie, then Sansa had made the decision to poison Tyrion to free herself from the Lannisters grasp. And I think the ultimate motivation to do that would have been her realization as to what happened to Ice, and equating Ice’s fate with hers. But then Joffrey eats the pie. But if Joffrey was poisoned through the goblet in his wine, I think that Sansa ultimately couldn’t’ bring herself to poison Tyrion, but when Joffrey approached with his goblet she made the sudden decision to poison Joffrey’s wine. And it goes without saying that Joffrey had provided her with plenty of motivation even if this wasn’t Sansa’s initial plan and it didn’t get her out of her marriage to Tyrion.

It’s the discussion at the wedding I’m referring to. Olenna should know by that time that Tyrion was going to be poisoned and she tells Sansa when they were leaving. I don’t have any reason to believe that Olenna was lying. The Willas plan isn’t a bust, not once Tyrion is dead. Once Tyrion dies, Sansa is free to marry Willas. That’s why they need to get Sansa out quickly, they don’t want to wait for the Lannisters to find someone else to marry her. Keeping Sansa in King’s Landing for an extended period of time would have ensured that Sansa would have been remarried to a Lannister. And yes, the whole point/benefit of poisoning Tyrion, for Olenna, would have been to make Sansa a Tyrell. Which then gives the Tyrells a claim to Winterfell. But to do so they need to get her to Highgarden quickly after Tyrion’s death. Of course Olenna was in on the plan in the beginning. Do you think Dontos pulled her aside in King’s Landing and told her “hey just for your info, Sansa is going to have a whole lot of poison in her hairnet the day of the wedding, feel free to help yourself”. That’s absurd. The only way that Olenna knows about the hair net (and Petyr knows that Olenna knows about the hairnet) is if she and Petyr came up with this idea in Highgarden. Once it was settled that the Joffrey is going to break off his engagement with Sansa, Olenna is going to be very interested in laying a claim to Sansa. They both agree that the Lannisters will probably marry her off to Tyrion before they can bring her to Highgarden so they make the contingency plan concerning the hair net. Olenna is most probably the one who supplied it. But there is no reason for Olenna to go through with the poisoning if Sansa is not married after Joffrey’s wedding. Then they can take her to Highgarden without the need to poison anyone. Petyr ratted out their plan to the Lannisters because his plan to snatch Sansa for himself relied on the poisoning at the wedding. Plus he really hated Tyrion. So he felt the need to hurry up and get Sansa married before Joffrey’s wedding. This is Petyr’s way of ensuring the marriage to Tyrion takes place in time. Dontos does try to nip the idea in the bud, but Sansa doesn’t care. Once she is given the invite to Highgarden she feels no need to run off with Dontos on the day of the wedding. It’s only when she’s married to Tyrion that she has no choice but to go ahead with their plan. Of course their plan also concerns getting ride of her husband. Which is the only reason Sansa would go along with it. That’s the only way she becomes truly free of the Lannisters. I’d have to go back and look at the sequence, you may be right but it doesn’t matter. Olenna’s only concern is getting Sansa to Highgarden free to marry Willas. If she has to help poison a dwarf husband of Sansa so be it. But if she doesn’t that’s even better. Petyr’s secret plan to snatch Sansa for himself completely relies on the poisoning at the wedding. Hence, Littlefinger ensuring that Sansa gets married to Tyrion. The reason for the hair net is that is how Olenna is going to pass to Sansa the poison on the day of the wedding, through her hair net. Olenna is going to pass the poison to Sansa because Sansa is realistically the only one who’s going to be in the position to surreptitiously poison Tyrion at the wedding. But until then there is absolutely no reason to give Sansa the poison. They have to make sure that she’s willing. It’s her marriage to Tyrion that gives her the desperation to go along with the plan. (It’s also why on the day of the wedding Sansa tries to summon up the courage of her warrior brother). There is no way that Olenna is just going to blindly take a gem from Sansa’s hair net on the word of Littlefinger or Dontos that it’s poison. The only way that she agrees with this plan is that she helps come up with this plan. Olenna is not a pawn to do Petyr’s bidding. Olenna gives the hairnet to Petyr to have Petyr give it to Sansa. Petyr has Dontos give the hair net to Sansa, with the instruction to wear it on the day of the wedding. For Olenna, the hairnet will only be necessary if Sansa is married. Olenna supplies the poison, Petyr supplies the poisoner. Both keep their hands clean and get someone else to do the dirty work for them. In this case, it’s a young girl who both believe will be so desperate to get out of a marriage to Tyrion that she’ll be willing to do their dirty work for them.