Frey family reunion

A miscarriage could occur anytime during the course of a pregnancy.

Not if he specifically wanted to lead the reader to a wrong conclusion.

Umm, no. Me refusing to agree with you does not transform an implication, even a good implication into a confirmation. Different characters using the term bloody bed or beds of blood does not confirm that Lyanna died in a birthing bed because Ned used the term bed of blood.

Well Dany didn’t have the luxury of being in a bed. But regarding your theory that she miscarried, I agree that’s an interesting possibility. But then doesn’t that raise another possibility for Lyanna? If she had given birth to Jon some time earlier. Perhaps months before Ned sits beside her, how can we be sure that perhaps Lyanna didn’t get pregnant a second time. And her bed of blood is a miscarriage of her second child? You’re making an assumption that Ned would have used the terminology in a very specific way, the same way that a midwife would use the term. Presumably Ned didn’t know much about birthing babies. For Ned, a bed of blood could simply be descriptive of the condition of Lyanna’s bed when she died and nothing more. Or he could very well be referring to a birthing bed. Like I said it’s a good theory. A very good theory. It’s not, however, a confirmation that Lyanna died in a birthing bed. George could be repeating the phrase for the point of leading us to the wrong conclusions as opposed to the right one.

An implication does not equal a confirmation. I agree that there you have shown an implication. Try to do better.

No I’m pretty clearly right on this one. A repetition of a phrase in two different scenarios makes for a good theory. It does not create a confirmation. And you didn’t answer my question. According to the quote beds of blood equates to short-lived children. Did Lyanna give birth to a child who only lived a short time?

Perhaps I need to reread the definition of confirmation, but I don’t this this serves as a confirmation. There are numerous ways that beds can become bloody. Robert died in a bloody bed and even extracted a promise from Ned, just like Lyanna. That isn’t evidence that Lyanna died of a wound from a boar. I think the parallels make it a good theory, but it’s not a confirmation. After all if the intent of the author is to lead us to the wrong conclusion, then this is one way he might accomplish it. ETA: And if we’re going to try to parallel the quote, does that mean that Lyanna’s child would have been “short-lived”?

You will have to explain how AFFC “confirmed” that Lyanna was lying a birthing bed.

Well you are making an assumption that Lyanna was lying in a birthing bed. And while I think that’s a pretty darn good theory based on what we’ve been presented it is still a theory. After all we have Dany feverish and bleeding at the end of ADWD and it had been quite a while since she had been pregnant.

I agree that it’s silly to be too dogmatic about much in this story at this stage. GRRM has said that he has yet to lay all of his cards on the table. Which probably means that there is critical information that we haven’t been made privy to. A lot depends on George’s motive in telling this tale. If he’s merely trying to be subtle about Jon’s parentage, then I think the general idea of Rhaegar and Lyanna being Jon’s parents is probably a safe bet. It’s certainly the conclusion that George is subtly (some would say not so subtly) pushing us towards. But if George is purposely trying to be deceptive in how he’s presenting his clues and if his goal is to surprise even the most careful reader then I think all bets are off. George did an audio commentary on one of blu rays of the HBO show. In it, he said that he used to watch the Twilight Zone with his mother (at least I think it was the twilight zone). He said that his mother could always figure out the plot twist before the end of the show. He said that he wanted to write a story that would surprise someone like his mother. Now would George’s mom have come to the conclusion of R + L? Based on how George told the tale, I think probably so. I understand the skepticism of Lyanna having conceived before her disappearance. While I think it’s a definite possibility, I admit that the general timeline does trouble me. It just may be too long. But to use a timeline to disregard the possibility of the Fisherman’s daughter seems pretty silly. What we know of the events is simply too vague to be able to exclude it chronologically. There are other reasons obviously to be skeptical about it, but I don’t think it can be completely ruled out based on timing. All of this all may hinge on just how accurate a lot of the back story we’ve received so far is. Especially if we are going to try and prove or disprove information by comparing Dany’s birth to Jon’s. The unknown variables start to increase significantly. And that’s kind of the point of doing away with an omniscient narrator. It does allow the author more room for surprise. Why does Dany’s childhood memories of fields and a lemon tree seem to contradict what Viserys told her about her birth and her move to Braavos? A time that she doesnt’ have any independent memory of. Why does the author link the tower of joy and Lyanna’s death only in a dream as opposed to a conscious memory from Ned? Are the discrepancies we see in some characters memories of events significant? A lot of this depends on how you view the series.

Well to be fair, then we "think this" as opposed to "know this". First we have to assume that Lyanna died as a result of childbirth. And even with that assumption we can't assume that she died immediately can we? After all Elia was bedridden for about six months after one of her pregnancies. Lyanna's health could have been shattered from her pregnancy but perhaps she didn't succumb until months later. And I suppose depending on the timing, Lyanna's death bed could have occurred after a second pregnancy.

How do we know this?

Humor me for an instant, and for the sake of argument, let’s assume that for whatever reason Viserys is full of crap or just very wrong about Dany being born the 9 moons after they fled Dragonstone. Or to make it even easier, forget Dany’s conception or birth for the moment. Do we have any information from whatever sources to indicate how long before the Battle of the Trident that Aerys burned Chelsted?

Not sure why this is. The Fisherman's daughter story would have Jon's conception occurring after the start of the war. The war had waged close to a year when the Sack of King's Landing occurred. The Battle of the Trident occurred before the Sack of King's Landing. Dany's conception occurred before the Battle of the Trident. It all kind of depends on what Ned means when he says close to a year doesn't it? And if you are going to rely so heavily on GRRM's quote about Jon's age, you have to agree to live by it when it disproves other parts of your theory as well. After all, doesn't that quote pretty much ensure that Jon has to be older than Robb? If Jon was born at the time of Dany's conception, then he was born prior to the Battle of the Trident. Robb was conceived after the Battle of the Bells. Are you saying that more than 9 months elapsed between Ned and Cat's wedding and the Battle of the Trident?

Not according to Sansa:

Yes that's my point. Jon would have never been anywhere near Cersei's radar until Cersei arrived at Winterfell. And even then Cersei would have noticed Jon as a curiousity like when the Targaryen Prince invited his ape to sit at the dinner table. All of this is certainly possible. But outside of Cersei's comment to Ned the only place that seems to link Ashara with Ned's bastard is Winterfell. Even Edric Dayne didn't hear or at least repeat any rumors about Jon being Ashara's son, despite the fact that he knew they were in a relationship. From what I gather the story outside of Winterfell pretty much begins and ends with Ned killing Arthur and returning Dawn to Starfall culminating in Ashara's death. Now we do have that comment from Barristan about Ashara being dishonored and his belief that losing her child was one of the factors that led to her suicide. But he seems firmly of the belief that she miscarried a daughter. So I do wonder if Cersei was familiar before travelling to Winterfell with the main story concerning Ned killing Arthur and Ashara killing herself over the grief of losing her brother. And when she arrived at Winterfell she hears the rumor of Jon being Ashara's son. Which is why Cersei asked Ned which was it? Did your ex girlfirend kill herself because you killed her brother or because you stole her child?

It's basically the difference between Mya Stone and Edric Storm. Robert informally recognized Mya as his daughter but he never forrmally acknowledged her. Since Edric's mom was a "maiden" and daughter of House Florent, Robert was pressured into formally acknowledging Edric Storm. It seems fairly clear that Jon Snow's status is akin to Edric's and not Mya's. This is also I'm sure partly why Cat feels so threatened by Jon. I think unacknowledged bastards are, but I do think acknowledged bastards do have certain rights. I cant' find it right now, but I could have sworn there is a So Spake Martin talking about the legal rights of acknowledged bastards. If memory serves they can inherit, but only if there are no other lawful heirs. If you recall when all the male heirs of House Darry were wiped out, Varys brought up the fact that there was a "Bastard of Darry" still around. Well assuming that Rhaegar is the father, I'm not sure that this would be the only reason that Lyanna would want Jon to be acknowledged. Like I indicated above, acknowledged bastards do have certain rights and protections that unacknowledged bastards don't. So if Lyanna wanted Jon protected an acknowledgment by the Lord of one of the major Houses would have gone a long way in protecting Jon. And it's not just a protection from obvious enemies, but it would serve as a potential protection from Ned's new wife as well.

Seriously, y’all have to stop using that as a legitimate piece of information about Jon’s possible origin. Stannis, believe it or not, was making a joke/insult to Jon because Jon was pissing him off.

Of course he did, that's what gives Jon a legal status and protection. He swore an affirmation probably in front of a septon that Jon was his son. That's what it means to be formally acknowledged. It's a legal status. It's probably one of the promises he made Lyanna. In the law of Westeros it's what makes Jon his son, (it also makes Ned's biological paternity fairly irrelelvant at least in regards to Jon's legal status). This is why his dishonor occurs in the sight of gods and man, he made a formal acknowledgment in front of a Septon. It's highly doubtful that he would have waited until he got to Winterfell, because what if he died en route, and Jon survived? Then Jon loses any legal protection. He would have made the formal acknowledgment at the first opportunity, which would have been Starfall. I would argue that the entire False Spring is probably open to the time period of the romance. But I do agree with this sentiment. Which is why it's proof that some in Winterfell also probably believe that Jon must be older than Robb. I also, however, acknowledge, that Harwin could be tailoring the tale based on his audience. And ending the romance prior to Ned's betrothal to try and appease Arya. That's possible as well. For all I know, the rumor that Harwin heard is that Ned's affair with Ashara lasted beyond Ned's betrothal or perhaps even beyond his marriage to Cat, but Harwin changes that aspect of the tale to not upset Arya. Cersei asking whether Jon's mom was a whore could be Cersei taking a wild stab. I stated that up above. But the mother being a Dornish peasant or the mother being Ashara Dayne are too specific for Cersei to have just come up with those on her own. Those are rumors that Cersei heard. To think that in the time that Cersei spent in Winterfell that she would not have been tuned in to the castle gossip is absurd. After all she can't fuck Jaime in an abandoned tower every waking moment, she has to find other things to do to pass the time in that dreary castle. And for ladies in castles and court, gossip is one of the major pastimes. It's also highly doubtful that Cersei would have had Ned's bastard on her radar at all until she arrived at Winterfell. While this group here seems to assume that everyone is scrambling around trying to find a possible Rhaegar bastard or child of some secret wedding between Rhaegar and Lyanna, that doesn't appear to be the case at all. The only bastards that Cersei probably ever thought about were the bastards that her loving husband probably left scattered around the kingdom. She wouldn't have given two cents about Ned's bastard to have given it any thought. At least prior to her trip to Winterfell. It's certainly not realistic to think that she would have been gossiping around the court in King's Landing to come up with a theory that Ned impregnated a Dornish peasant. It might be more realistic to think that she would have heard gossip about Ashara Dayne just because Ashara was a fairly notable Lady, who perished in a fairly notable fashion. But the fact that Robert seems to be obvlivious over this makes me doubt that the gossip in King's Landing was that Ned impregnated Ashara and was raising her child at Winterfell. Ned's slaying of Arthur Dayne seems fairly widely known, and according to the Worldbook it doesn't appear that a child is involved in the official story. I think it much more likely that the rumor was that Ashara lept from her tower because Ned killed her brother. No, the only realistic possibility is that Cersei only really takes an interest in Jon when she arrives at Winterfell. And there are two reasons that Jon would have probably peaked Cersei's interest. The first is that Jon's priveledged status at Winterfell was probably somewhat unique. Cersei's own strong opinions about allowing husbands to bring their bastards to court would have probably caused her to have honed in on this. And secondly, she probably picked up on the distress that Jon's presence caused Catelyn. I can see Cersei engaging in a bit of schadenfreude over this. This would have piqued Cersei's interest enough to inquire a bit more about Jon, and why Ned was giving the lad such a favored status. So Cersei hears the two rumors that seem circulate in Winterfell, that Jon's mother was a commoner, a Dornish peasant. Or a rumor that was kept more on the down low due to Ned (and probably also due to Cat) that Ashara was Jon's mother. So she then throws the Winterfell gossip in Ned's face when he (in her mind) tries to shame her by confronting her about her own infidelity.

No, I think that’s a much less likely source. First you have to assume that there was some sort of investigation into Ned’s bastard, and there is zero evidence to that effect. Then you would have to assume that this information would have been shared with Cersei for some reason. There is nothing to indicate that Cersei was even attending any Small Council meetings at that time, or that Varys would have shared any “intel” with her about Jon Snow. As for Stannis’ comment on a “fishwife” that is a jape directed at Jon. That’s not any indication of any “intelligence” gathered regarding Jon Snow. While it may be hard to believe, based on the hidden importance the readers have given regarding Jon’s parentage, there is nothing to indicate that anyone has spent any time seriously investigating the circumstances of Jon’s parentage. It’s much, much more likely that while Cersei was in Winterfell she engaged in gossip with the other ladies at Winterfell. Or that Cersei’s servants she brought with her engaged in gossip with the servants at Winterfell and Cersei got the gossip from them. ETA: I’m trying to imagine a scenario where Tywin summons Cersei to tell her: “It’s very important that I let you know, that based on the information we got about Ned’s bastard, the mother was either Ashara Dayne, a Dornish peasant woman, or a whore, I’ll update you if we learn any more”.

Let me suggest this. Let’s start with the rumors that Cersei throws in Ned’s face when he confronts her about her children. So Cersei basically throws three possible rumors of Jon’s mother in Ned’s face: 1. Whore. 2. Dornish peasant, when Ned was fighting in the war. 3. Ashara Dayne. So let’s discuss the probable origins of where Cersei would have heard of these rumors. It’s doubtful that Cersei spent much time in Casterly Rock or in King’s Landing gossiping about Ned’s bastard. It’s possible but it seems doubtful that this would have been a subject that would of either come up, or one she would have been very interested in at that time. This quote also seems to suggest that Cersei might not have been aware of Ned’s bastard until she arrived at Winterfell. So I think it’s more probable that Cersei heard gossip about Ned’s bastard while in Winterfell. That is also the time frame when she seemed to have first noticed Jon. Cersei spent a good amount of time in Winterfell, so it seems likely that she would have spent some time talking to some of the women in Winterfell gossiping about Ned’s bastard son. It’s also possible that she would have asked Robert about Ned’s son and if he knew who the mother was. So let’s start with the probable source of the first rumor. That Jon’s mother was a whore. Now it’s very possible that Cersei came up with that on her own. Especially given her knowledge that Robert had probably left many a whore pregnant. But assuming that she heard that rumor from somewhere, where would the likely source be? I think it unlikely that she would have picked up that rumor from the ladies in Winterfell. Certainly possible but unlikely. I think it very possible however, that if she asked Robert about what he knew, this may have been the answer he gave. Describing her for a wench and intimating that Ned would have only known her for an hour certainly seems to line up with Robert thinking that she was a whore. After all Robert himself was very familiar with the idea of leaving bastards behind in whorehouses. So I think that leaves the other two rumors: Dornish peasant/Lady Ashara as tales that Cersei would have heard from the ladies in Winterfell. Now obviously they wouldn’t have described Ned as burning down a holdfast. I think that’s a detail that Cersei would have added on her own as she lashed out at Ned. I think it more probable that the rumor she would have heard from some in Winterfell is that he got a peasant woman pregnant while he fought the war in Dorne. Now while I can’t rule out that she got the Dornish peasant theory from Robert, I can safely rule out that she got the rumor about Ashara Dayne from Robert. He seems completely unaware of that rumor. So I think it’s also likely that Cersei’s source for that rumor came from the ladies at Winterfell as well. Which would imply that there were two distinct rumors in Winterfell. One rumor being that Jon’s mom was a Dornish peasant. And the other rumor was that Jon’s mother was the Lady Ashara Dayne. Those in Winterfell who thought that Jon’s mother was a Dornish peasant must have also thought that Jon was younger than Robb. However, those who thought that Jon’s mother was Ashara Dayne, probably (though admittedly not necessarily) thought that Jon was older than Robb. After all if you look at the sequence of events, it seems much more probable that Ned’s interactions with Ashara Dayne would have occurred before his wedding to Cat and not after. And that seems to be the gist of what Harwin was telling Arya.

@corbon As for your rest, we’ll have to agree to disagree. I find it unlikely that the rumors would be so cleanly delineated like you suggest. I would also note that Harwin never makes it exactly clear when Ned and Ashara’s romance would have ended. Other than he seems to imply that by the time Ned was betrothed to Cat his relationship with Ashara was over. He certainly says that their relationship began in Harrenhal, and you can make an argument that he is limiting their relationship to the time of the False Spring. But who knows. It’s also possible that Harwin is purposely altering the nature of the rumor to end the relationship before Ned was betrothed to Cat based in an effort to appease Arya. All of this could be true. But you have to remember, however, that I’m responding to your assertion that there is plenty of evidence that Robb is considered by all to be older than Jon. Which kind of shifts the burden of proof a bit. I’m well aware of the fact that Cat believes Robb is older than Jon, but I’m not aware of the evidence that all believed Robb to be older than Jon. Maybe it has to do with some type of birth day calculation perhaps, those always gave me headaches. But then on the other hand they don’t call them birth days do they? They call them namedays. Hmmm.

No, and that’s my point. You’re assuming that Ned’s affirmation of Jon occurred at Winterfell. I believe it more probable that Ned’s affirmation took place at Starfall. He left Starfall with Jon as his son. And if Ned truly believed that his actual dishonor lay in his false affirmation, then what Ned actually revealed here, is quite the opposite of what you suggest. Instead, I think he reveals that Cat was still pregnant with Robb when Ned falsely affirmed Jon. Thus Jon is in fact older than Robb.

Absolutely.

Like I said, you guys are parsing the text beyond legitimate meaning.