Frey family reunion

Interesting quote I found perusing through a Song of Ice and Fire RPG from Green Ronin publishing.  In it’s description of Howland Reed we’re given this:

Quote

Howland Reed is the Lord of Greywater Watch and is one of Eddard
Stark’s closest friends, being the only other companion to have survived
the fight at the Tower of Joy, even going so far as to save Eddard’s life
from Ser Arthur Dayne, and he also cared for Lyanna Stark in her last
days. After the War of the Usurper, Howland Reed retreated to Grey-
water Watch and has not emerged from his swamps since.

Now granted this is a role playing game, so I’m not sure if this is considered canon, semi-canon or complete nonsense.  I suppose it depends on how they got their information.

If it came from George it might call to question the orthodox assumptions about the tower of joy.  I’m not sure I’ve seen anyone think that they stormed the tower and were with Lyanna for days before her death.   

Also note that the RPG decided to use the connector “and” as opposed to “where”.  In other words, they aren’t necessarily describing Lyanna’s last days as having occurred in the tower of joy.

1 hour ago, the trees have eyes said:

Erm, no, that's a wild take.  It would be better off to argue than no one would notice Sansa slipping out quietly rather than keep asserting that Tyrion choking on his pie would have wedding guests trampling each other in a panic but it's up to each of us what we find plausible.   It's a royal wedding feast in a feudal monarchy, the guests are the great and the good, many of them experienced in combat and messy deaths.  There needs to be a big enough shock and a good enough reason for everyone to scarper.  Tyrion?

Tyrion is small beer (sorry, but this is an ableist society), he's the dwarf expected to ride the pig and get laughed at, not the second most revered man in the 7K as you imply.

The King, on the other hand, is a whole different kettle of fish

Poisoning Joffrey would create a bigger stir.  But Tyrion choking to death would still probably cause quite a stir as well.  And once again, I think we’re overestimating how hard it would have been for Sansa to have slipped out without anyone even choking to death.  We hear from the Kingsguard just how hard it was to keep track of everyone during the wedding especially at the time of the Pie.  The only one really paying attention to Sansa at the wedding, was Tyrion.  And if he was the one choking to death, he’d be in a pretty bad position to note her leaving early.

And the one big benefit for both Olenna and Petyr in Tyrion being the victim, is that Sansa suddenly becomes free to marry.  

1 hour ago, the trees have eyes said:

Exactly this.  Tyrion himself muses he should leave.  Oberyn thanks Tyrion for being the object of suspicion, otherwise it might have been him.  It's a giant round of musical chairs and no one wants to be the last one left standing and facing suspicion.  With Tyrion choking, suspicion, if there is any, is on Joffrey, maybe Sansa.  No one else needs to worry and no one needs to run like mad.

If Tyrion choked to death, would there have been any real suspicion to go around?  After all don’t forget the whole point of the poison.  The plotters were hoping that it would appear to all that the victim choked to death on his food.  It was Joffrey’s death and Cersei’s accusation against Tyrion, that first laid the idea that a poison was used.

Cersei would not have made that accusation if Tyrion had choked to death.  Unfortunately for Tyrion, his death wouldn’t lead to a lot of questions because he wasn’t terribly popular, even among his own family.

The only real negative for Tywin would be that his death would free up Sansa to be taken to Highgarden for marriage.  But it probably wouldn’t be a big enough negative to dare lose Highgarden as an ally.  Which is the whole reason they had to rush the marriage of Tyrion and Sansa.  They knew if push came to shove, they couldn’t stop Olenna from taking Sansa to Highgarden to marry her off.

On 4/13/2024 at 12:16 PM, Alester Florent said:

FWIW, I see no particular reason to doubt the official story we've had revealed to us in the books. We can second-guess the text all day but we're given no real reason to in this case. GRRM's plotting doesn't tend to be that intricate or deceptive. People do things which aren't necessarily perfectly rational, or which carry a degree of risk, both in real life and in these stories, and where we can say "but what if this happened, and then what if this happened?" sure we can poke holes in the plan, but the fact is, if the plan was to kill Joffrey, permit Sansa's getaway, and escape the blame, then it worked perfectly. That there was a small chance it might not have done is irrelevant - assasssinating kings is never a risk-free business!

We have one very particular reason to doubt the official story, in that GRRM specifically told us that he may have some surprises in store with regards to the conclusion that Olenna poisoned Joffrey.  

As for practical reasons to doubt this version, we have one very significant one, in that Olenna probably couldn’t have reached the chalice to drop the poison.  The chalice was drunk without issue by Joffrey and then placed on top of the table in front of Tyrion. 

When Tyrion was told by Joffrey to serve him, Tyrion had to stand up on his chair to reach the chalice.  Olenna who is about as tall as Tyrion would have had a lot of trouble to have dropped the poison into the chalice.  Especially since she would have had to have once again left her place at the Dias to do so.  

It’s possible that Margaery could have poisoned the chalice.  And maybe that’s the surprise GRRM alluded to.  Olenna did give a specific look to Margaery when Sansa told her about Joffrey being a monster.  Perhaps Olenna taught Margaery the fine art of poisoning and left it up to Margaery to rid herself of her future husband if that’s what she wanted to do.

Of course, I still suspect that George may be playing with Sansa’s POV, and having her repress her own actions at the wedding.  After all, there is really only one person who would have been in the best position to have either dropped the poison in Joffrey’s chalice or Tyrion’s pie, and that would be Sansa.

5 hours ago, Sandy Clegg said:

The bay is big. He has plenty of water north of wherever Sansa was, out in Blackwater Bay, as they had rowed for such a long time. See this map:  https://heavy.com/entertainment/2019/05/game-of-thrones-map-kings-landing-dragonstone-winterfell-dragonstone-s8e5-timeline/

For example, draw a line south from Duskendale then east from KL - if Sansa was anywhere around that intersecting point, then The Merlin King could have easily come from the north while being nowhere near King's Landing, and Sansa can still see the east sun rising.

There's no support for Petyr coming from King's Landing still, yet plenty of ways he can avoid the eastern sun.

I’m not completely sure why you’re being this stubborn on the issue.  You’re basically arguing that it was impossible for Petyr to have heard the bells ringing even though you admittedly can’t answer where exactly Petyr’s ship was coming from when it came upon Sansa’s rowboat.  Now, I don’t know exactly where Petyr’s ship was coming from either, but my argument is that based on the geography of the bay, the direction Sansa’s rowboat was going in, and the fact that Petyr’s ship came out of the dark, thus not out of the East which would have put him further from King’s Landing, makes it very possible that he was positioned close enough at King’s Landing to have heard the bells.

It’s also the only reason that Petyr could have been that certain that Joffrey was poisoned.  I don’t care how arrogant he is or how good he thought the plan was, the simple fact of the matter is, the poisoning itself was outside of his hands, he had to rely on others to do the dirty work.

The only thing that would have made him certain that Joffrey was dead was the sound of the bells.  The same confirmation that Sansa had after she fled King’s Landing.

This argument kind of reminds me on the attacks on the Braavosi Lemon tree issue.  There are posters scoffing at the discrepancies having any meaning, even after GRRM himself confirms that yes, it does mean something that he can’t reveal yet.

Here, you’re arguing that there can be no other explanation other than Olenna having poisoned Joffrey.  Even though the author himself says that he may have some surprises in store for us concerning the identity of Joff’s poisoner.

Since you’re not really coming up with any possible surprises it seems a bit presumptuous for you to scoff at those of us who are.

19 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

Petyr also spent some time in a sort of comma, like Bran and Jojen did before unlocking their gift.

There are three characters that GRRM frames in a window looking down (like an outsider) on the events taking place outside the window.  Jon, Bran, and Baelish.  So make with that what you want.

On 4/9/2024 at 4:27 PM, Sandy Clegg said:

At a point which is out of range of the sights and sounds of King's Landing. The textual evidence is pretty clear that wherever Sansa is, Peter is and was further out than that. The directional speculation doesn't confirm where he was. Our last known information is that he was not in KL. Now, if George wanted to plant some clues that LF had been closer and heard the bells, or was in KL, don't you think you would fairly have left some in the text which might show this? Instead we have nothing but what ifs and maybes. So that's weight of evidence, which I can't really ignore.

No, if Petyr was further from King’s Landing than Sansa he would have been coming in from the East, but he wasn’t.  He came out of the darkness after the sun had already started to rise in the East, thus Petyr was not coming from further out in the Bay.   If anything he and Sansa’s rowboat were of an equal distance from King’s Landing right before they came together.

On 4/9/2024 at 4:27 PM, Sandy Clegg said:

Except it was not shown to be sailing away from KL, but rather patently the opposite. Making the bells even further away. I'm afraid I have to point to the above. If it wasn't in the text that Petyr was coming from KL, then there's no strong basis to prove otherwise that supports Tyrion over Joff. It's possibilities vs. textual evidence

 See above.  

On 4/9/2024 at 4:27 PM, Sandy Clegg said:

Again, it's a pretty big leap. A commotion like that would've brought kingsguard circling round the guests nearby pretty sharpish. Accidental death/accusation of Tyrion meant that eyes were not on Sansa - enough to get away. Littlefinger is simply assuming that his plan succeeded. He is within his right to do so, as it's in character for him to be so cocky. And again - if he had been proved wrong and Joff wasn't dead, that doesn't retroactively alter any plan. It just makes him an arrogant assassin on top of everything else. As it turns out, he was right to assume his plan had worked. 

It’s not a big leap at all.  Petyr is sure that Joffrey was dead because George had the bells ringing in King’s landing.  So if Joffrey was the intended target, than the bells confirmed Petyr’s plan was successful.  If Joffrey wasn’t the intended target, than Petyr could obviously conclude that the poisoner(s) decided to change their target.  And Petyr could fairly easily conclude that the poisoner would have also had a motive to poison Joffrey even if he had hoped they would poison Tyrion.

According to the assumed version of events, Sansa is never told that Joffrey or anyone else is going to be poisoned.  She’s just told that when an opportunity presents itself, get to the Godwood.  Allegedly, unbeknownst to Sansa the plotters are going to present her with that opportunity by poisoning someone at the wedding.

But the poisoning itself is out of the hands of Littlefinger.  If Olenna was supposed to be the poisoner, it’s certainly possible that the old tiny lady, couldn’t find an opportunity to poison Joffrey, or she was caught in the act, or she simply changed her mind.  But Sansa could still have found an opportunity to have left the wedding without the poisoning.  Even the Kingsguards admit that they couldnt’ keep track of what people were doing because of the chaotic nature of the wedding.  And we hadn’t even gotten to the bedding yet.

Regardless, Sansa’s presence shouldn’t have been enough to have confirmed to Petyr that Joffrey was in fact dead.  Thus we have the bells ringing.

2 minutes ago, Sandy Clegg said:

So … you can change the subsequent books and the butler didn't do it  - now  the chambermaid did it. But but then all your clues that you put in so carefully in the first and second book lead to nowhere in. They’re contradictions. So I don't do that. I, you know I'm sorry but the butler is still going to do it at the end and some people will have figured that out I think.

What George is saying is that he’s not going to change what he intended because some people may have figured out the mystery.  That’s not what I’m suggesting.

I’m suggesting that George is allowing for the possibility of a surprise twist in what he wrote.  And at the very least giving him multiple options of how he wants the story to go.

When I put together my theory that Sansa may in fact actually be the poisoner, I very painstakingly quoted all of the portions of the text that might allow George to take this route.  

That doesn’t mean I necessarily think he’s going to go with this.  I’m just highlighting portions of the text that would allow him to adjust the story to that outcome if he decides to go that route.

It’s why George describes himself as a gardener (I think).  He gives himself several different options to branch his story out in various directions.  

So when he says there may be a surprise I think he’s being very literal as opposed to being coy.  There may be a surprise and Olenna might not have poisoned Joffrey, or it may be just as it appears to the careful reader.  George has two books to decide what direction he wants to go in.

13 minutes ago, Sandy Clegg said:

The only salient point is that Sansa was coming from KL. And Peter's ships meets her head on. The direction they come from is immaterial, except for the fact that it couldn't also have been coming 'from King's Landing'. 

No, not really.  King’s Landing is a pretty big place.  Sansa is coming from the the channel which is south of King’s Landing and heads in a northerly direction.  So presumably she may be heading in a northerly direction gradually away from the city.

Petyr’s ship probably doesn’t come from the East because it’s not shown by the rising sun.  Instead it probably comes from somewhere North of Sansa.  And perhaps too, like Sansa they are heading in a direction south gradually sailing away from King’s Landing.  And they meet up further out in the bay.  I think based on the available evidence it’s most likely that Sansa’s rowboat is heading Northeast, while Petyr is traveling Southeast.  They meet up in the bay, and Petyr’s ship turns East when they meet up with the rowboat.

13 minutes ago, Sandy Clegg said:

But how anyone can read that passage and come to the conclusion that she can still hear any bells is a mystery to me. 

The issue is that the bells were one of the last things she heard.  So presumably Petyr’s ship, which is also on the move would have also been in a position to hear the sound of the bells carrying over the water, even if it was before they finally came in contact with Sansa’s boat.

13 minutes ago, Sandy Clegg said:

Not a bad point, but I think we can assume that he knows something of the poison he chose to do the job.  We don't have any stats on the strangle's survival rate, but it has been shown to be pretty damn effective. I think he would have been fairly safe in this assumption, though, and been pretty surprised if Sansa had then told him Joff was still alive. But she didn't, so his assumption was a safe one. 

I’m not talking about Joff surviving the consumption of the poison, I’m talking about the poisoners being caught in the act.  So let’s assume that Olenna was caught with the poison or caught trying to poison Joffrey’s cup, that still would have created a commotion which could have allowed Sansa to escape.

Thus even if Joffrey was the intended target it was the bells that confirmed to Petyr that the poisoning was successful.

2 minutes ago, Sandy Clegg said:

Did you miss that in your quote, George literally says " I think that’s what the murderers here were hoping for — the whole realm will see Joffrey choke to death on a piece of pie or something".

This already negates Tyrion as the target, so what's the point of arguing about any discrepancies in the Tyrell/LF plan? Which there may have been, of course, and I think that's a more worthwhile discussion to have. I don't think LF saw himself as an equal partner in that conspiracy, and his use of the jousting dwarves shows that he went further than providing the hairnet. He may have gambled on Tyrion being fingered somehow, even if the Tyrells were hoping it was seen as accidental. Like people have said, this alliance was not based on trust and it would be just like LF to squeeze a little more out of the affair to give him extra profit.

Like I say, I'm happy to argue the wrinkles in the LF/Tyrell alliance, but I'm really not in any doubt as to the primary target being Joffrey any more.

It’s simple, George doesn’t want to reveal the possible surprises he may still have in store for the Purple wedding.  So the question is if this is a closed case as you suggest, why does George specifically state that while it appears Olenna poisoned Joffrey he may have some additional surprises.

8 hours ago, Sandy Clegg said:

In the real world you might have a point, but this is a book. And GRRM has gone to such lengths in the text to back up the accepted version of events (which I think are well-documented in this thread and others)

You may have to wonder if George thinks this “accepted version of events” is necessarily the only possible version:

Once again GRRM’s own words from a Rolling Stones interview:

Quote

The current season of Game of Thrones is roughly based on the second half of the third A Song of Ice and Fire book, A Storm of Swords. Series author George R.R. Martin says that Joffrey appears to have been killed by Queen of Thorns Olenna Tyrell in the books, but adds that he makes no promises.

"I make no promises... and I may have more surprises to reveal," Martin says. "The conclusion that the careful reader draws is that Joffrey was killed by the Queen of Thorns, using poison from Sansa's hair net."

So if George has gone out of his way for the reader to accept this as the only version of events that is possible, then what are the additional surprises that he may reveal?

I think George himself is telling us that the mystery of Joffrey’s death may have been revealed, or may not have been revealed, depending on what George decides to do in future books.

So I think George has left enough wiggle room to throw us a curveball.

Just now, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

Wouldn't there have been better opportunities to get rid of Tyrion than at a royal wedding?  Targeting Joffrey here makes sense because there are enough moving pieces to have one unsuspecting accomplice bring the poison and only Oleanna needed to get it from her and put it in Joffrey's drink and security is lighter than what usually surrounds the king because they figure that everyone in attendance is already vetted.  Tyrion could be had anywhere and if his enemies wanted him he could have been compromised a lot more by having him done in at Shae's or anywhere else.  

Also if it was a hit of Tyrion, who's royal nephew hated him wouldn't there have been an attempt to involve Joffrey in the plot, or at least get his sanction to upstage his wedding? This would have been embarrassing to Joffrey had he survived, Tyrion died and the cause of death emerged as poison.

 

Let’s assume that Littlefinger was in on the plot to kill Tyrion.  He also has another motivation for wanting to create a distraction to allow for Sansa to escape.  So Littlefinger wants the poisoning to happen at a public event that everyone is going to be at to allow Sansa to escape.  

So in the scenario that Olenna was going to do the dirty work for him, he tells Olenna that Sansa will unwittingly (perhaps) provide the poison on the day of the wedding through the hairnet.  

When Olenna sees Sansa with the hairnet, Olenna tells Sansa that she is going to take her to Highgarden on the next day.  Olenna’s motivation is to to marry Sansa to her son Willas, and she knows that Sansa will be free of her marriage to Tyrion if indeed Tyrion was the intended target.

Or, in a scenario that I find more interesting and made a fairly lengthy post about, there is a possibility that none of the plotters, either Littlefinger or Olenna were willing to personally dirty their hands and the do the deed.  But instead the poisoner was Sansa, and George had Sansa repress what she did directly in the next chapter as she swallowed a fit of hysterical laughter when she was told that she had a good heart.

In which case, Olenna would have provided the poison to Sansa through Sansa’s hairnet, which would allow Sansa to then drop it into her husband’s food or wine, since she would have been the one with the best opportunity to do so.

3 hours ago, Sandy Clegg said:

The fact of the bells fading away is no less significant than their sounding, either, as it allows us to gauge the length of her rowing out to sea, where she meets Littlefinger. It lets us know that LF has taken heavy measures to remain out of earshot to those in the docks, and also lets us know that he couldn't have learned about Joff's death in this way.

I would note that the passage is that the bells were fading away, not that they had faded away.  And just like Sansa is traveling in the bay, so is Littlefinger.  And we also know that he wasn’t traveling from the East, where the sun was rising, because his ship came out of the darkness.  So George also goes out of his way to show that Petyr wasn’t coming from further out in the Bay.  So no, I don’t think the author wanted us to think that Petyr couldn’t have learned of Joff’s death from the ringing of the bells.  

In fact just the opposite.  If Petyr wasn’t privy to exactly what happened inside the  chapel how could he have been so sure of Joffrey’s death, whether or not Joffrey was the intended target.  After all an attempted poisoning could have been a sufficient distraction to allow Sansa to escape unnoticed.  So I think the bells were confirmation that it was now publicly known that the King was dead which is why Petyr knew it for a certainty when he had Dontos killed.

On 4/4/2024 at 4:27 PM, Sandy Clegg said:

That misreads the purpose of the poison.

The strangler poison would have appeared in Pycelle's autopsy regardless. The main purpose of using the strangler poison is its deadly effectiveness, but more crucially the fact that it manifests as a fit of choking on food. This choking exhibition was the thing that was needed to give Sansa time to get away, while kingsguard rushed to dislodge this non-existent yet persistent morsel of food. No 'false implication' is ever suggested as the reason  for its use. Another, more silent, poison that eats away at someone's intestines (like the mushrooms used to kill Nurse) would have killed Joffrey just as dead. But more slowly, and with less public display. Which doesn't serve Sansa's escape one bit.

We actually have the benefit of the author specifically being asked about the Purple Wedding in an interview with Entertainment Weekly:

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 I based it a little on the death of Eustace, the son of King Stephen of England. Stephen had usurped the crown from his cousin, the empress Maude, and they fought a long civil war and the anarchy and the war would be passed down to second generation, because Maude had a son and Henry and Stephen had a son. But Eustace choked to death at a feast. People are still debating a thousand of years later: Did he choke to death or was he poisoned? Because by removing Eustace, it brought about a peace that ended the English civil war. 

"Eustace’s death was accepted [as accidental], and I think that’s what the murderers here were hoping for — the whole realm will see Joffrey choke to death on a piece of pie or something. But what they didn’t count on, was Cersei’s immediate assumption that this was murder. Cersei wasn’t fooled by this for a second. She doesn’t believe that it was an accidental death. You saw the scene filmed, does it come across as he could possibly be just choking or is it very clear he’s been poisoned?"

So once again, how does that jive with the idea that Littlefinger wanted Joffrey poisoned, wanted everyone to realize Joffrey was poisoned, and laid the groundwork for Tyrion to be blamed for it?

If Joffrey died from a poison, no matter how quick it was going to cause a disturbance from everyone around them, which would enable Sansa to escape.

But here, a poison was used that the murderers would hope would go undetected.  (Which begs the question, how was Littlefinger planning on freeing Sansa from Tyrion’s marriage if everything went as planned and the realm thought Joffrey choked to death on food?)  

And now perhaps, if Joffrey was the target we could expect there would be a more thorough investigation as to how he died.  But if Tyrion was the intended target do we really think there would be such an investigation?

On 3/21/2024 at 10:51 AM, The Bard of Banefort said:

Well, I was way off-base about assuming they’d hype Winterfell.

Maybe that’s going to be in the second half of the season, and they don’t have the visual effects finished yet?

Otherwise, I’m with you.  I assumed that they would hype Winterfell and a Targaryen(ish)/Stark(ish) type of relationship.

On 4/7/2024 at 7:23 AM, Sandy Clegg said:

Not sure I agree with any of the above - he's aware of the need to be out of sight of KL due to being involved in a murder plot at the king's wedding. He even has his man ready to whisk Sansa away. If he's so unconcerned with his ship being spotted, why make Sansa's trip out there so unnecessarily long? In fact, why lurk near KL at all? What does he hope to gain by remaining  in sight, at such unnecessary risk when he's gone to such lengths to distance himself? 

We're shown the ship's prow coming towards Sansa. She doesn't approach the stern, which would make more sense if LF had just been lurking there waiting for her to arrive. Then they could have been on their way as quick as possible, before being seen. None of the evidence points towards him having recently left KL at all. Unless they just circled around the bay, making sea-donuts for no reason. Seems kind of illogical and warping the facts to fit a theory rather than deducing from the facts given to us.

I think you’re discounting the reason that GRRM made the bells ring so soon after Joffrey’s death.  It doesn’t terribly make sense that Sansa would have heard the bells so soon after her flight from the wedding feast especially since they were coming from across the city.  But it becomes necessary if George wants a public acknowledgment that the King was dead.  

Which I think points to the fact that he wants to give Petyr a way of knowing about Joff’s death independent of being told by one of the eye witnesses.  

But I think that you are assuming that the ship is coming from further out in the sea when it reaches Sansa, and I’m not sure that this assumption is correct.

I had to pull an image of King’s Landing to make sure I was properly oriented.  But assuming the images are accurate, Sansa’s rowboat would have been traveling in a northerly direct if they were traveling along the channel towards Blackwater Bay.  (I had earlier assumed that they would have been traveling in an easterly direction but that’s not apparently correct).

That direction is perhaps even further confirmed by the fact that Peter’s ship comes out of the darkness towards them.  That occurs as the sun is starting to rise in the East.  So presumably the ship isn’t heading from the east (further out in the bay) where it would have been lit by the rising sun, but instead it is heading from the North, which allows it to appear out of the darkness.  

Now the question is did Petyr ever actually leave King’s Landing?  

If he had boarded the Merling King as it was parked outside of the channel, then he would have been hanging out on the ship an awfully long time.  Tyrion comments that Petyr had left a fortnight before in his POV, which occurs even before the Martells made their arrival in King’s Landing.  So that’s quite a while to be on the ship, but it’s still a possibility.

The other possibility is that he was hiding out in one of his brothels, the same place perhaps that he hid Cat or hid the dwarves that were used at the wedding tourney.  

But regardless all we know is that his ship was traveling to meet Sansa and it was probably not traveling from further out in the bay, which would have put it to Sansa’s east, but traveling from somewhere north of Sansa’s location which could have put it anywhere within the vicinity of King’s Landing.  

Which also means that when he turned his ship right before Sansa boards he probably turns it from a southerly direction to facing the East which is where they would have had to turn to leave the Bay.

17 hours ago, Sandy Clegg said:

LF is travelling towards Sansa's boat, from the sea, which indicates they had not come from KL. Conceivable doesn't come into it, we are shown the direction they are coming with no proof of them having turned about. It's 'inconceivable' that they had been closer to KL (risking being seen!), then sailed further out  ... only to give Oswell some rowing practice. Mayen it was his 'arm day'. If they were already close enough to KL to hear the bells, why not stay there and make the rowing journey shorter, and get Sansa on board sooner? Evidence and common sense are both lacking in that hypothetical, sorry.

Nah, we just know that they meet up in the bay, and we know that Littlefinger had never actually left King’s Landing.  There is no reason that they were parked deep out in the Bay.  Petyr wasn’t on a recognizable ship, he was on a simple merchant vessel, so there is no reason they couldn’t have stayed anchored near King’s Landing.  The only thing that Pety wouldnt’ have wanted anyone seeing is Sansa getting on that particular ship, which is why the two boats would have rendezvoused further out in the Blackwater.

23 hours ago, Sandy Clegg said:

Sansa rows and rows and rows long after the bells fade. Then they come upon Littlefinger's ship, which is too far out to hear or see anything of KL.

The problem is that Littlefinger’s ship wasn’t anchored at that location, just like the rowboat, it too was moving across the water, just in the opposite direction.  It’s very possible that the ship was originally anchored in port or much closer to King’s Landing.

10 hours ago, Sandy Clegg said:

we clearly know that Joff was LF's target because he had foreknowledge of his death on the ship. This is the crucial fact that wipes away all arguments that Tyrion was the target, which you haven't fully addressed.

No we don’t know that LF had foreknowledge of Joff’s death.  We know he had knowledge of Joff’s death after the fact.  We also know that the bells were ringing in King’s Landing before Sansa left the city.  We also know that the ringing of the bells carried over the water.  We also know that the ringing of the bells signaled the death of a king.

LF’s ship was traveling from the east while Sansa’s rowboat was traveling from the west, when they came together.  It’s very conceivable that LF’s ship was either docked or closer to the city when Joffrey died.  Hence, LF could have been given an audible clue that Joffrey had died.

The problem with Littlefinger plotting to poison Joffrey, is that Littlefinger had no motive to kill Joffrey.  He certainly had at least two motives for wanting Tyrion dead.  We also know that despite Littlefinger’s boasting of having cast suspicion on Tyrion, his dwarves were not the reason that suspicion was cast on Tyrion.

It was Cersei’s accusation apparently born from her own experiences with Tyrion’s hostility to Joff coupled with the prophecy from the Wood’s witch that caused her to cast the blame on Tyrion.  Nothing to do with Littlefinger.  

We also know that a poison was used that was supposed to make everyone believe that the recipient of the poison died choking on a morsel of food.  Not exactly a good poison to use to also try and falsely implicate someone else.

On 3/23/2024 at 6:20 PM, Sly Wren said:

Or: give them something easy to look for. 

If Ned says "Wylla" but others think "Ashara--because they danced at Harrenhal"--then people think they've solved the mystery and look no further.

That would assume Ned would plot like that--which may be a stretch. Ned's go to move seems to be silence when it comes to secrets.

But the fact that he gives any name for Jon's mother. . . that he doesn't just keep silent. That may mean he isn't the only one who his keeping this secret.

I’m of the camp that Ned isn’t some mastermind using layers of deceit to keep Jon safe.  I think the answer is much simpler.  

Assuming that Ned and Howland brought Jon to Starfall, then Wylla was Jon’s wetnurse who kept him fed.  (Now what happened to Wylla’s child is a good question. ) 

But regardless, if Jon was in fact Lyanna’s child, and Ned wanted to keep that fact a secret, then the easiest explanation at Starfall was that Wylla was Jon’s mother.  Ned makes the false affirmation at Starfall naming both himself and Wylla as Jon’s parents.

Lying and false affirmations don’t come easy for Ned, so when he arrives with the child at Winterfell, he just makes it known that Jon is his blood and his son and uses his prerogative as Lord of Winterfell not to speak of it further.  

The only one that Ned ever actually has to answer to is his King, Robert.  So that’s why Ned is forced to repeat the lie he told in Starfall when he first falsely affirmed Jon as his son.

2 hours ago, Hippocras said:

@Frey family reunion you make a great many interesting points, but I still can't agree with the central premise that Sansa is lying to readers in her own POV. I really think that would be a level of deception that readers would not accept from the author, no matter how fun the books are. It is a writing betrayal.

I know that suppressed and unreliable memories exist, and GRRM even sometimes uses them. But for lying to us about this... it really just feels convoluted and unnecessary. Littlefinger is a liar. But in this case, he is lying mostly by omission. By what he leaves out. What he does admit to is true IMO.

So did Olenna drop in the poison herself? Maybe. Noone watches an old lady all that closely, especially not when there is a petulant boy king putting on a display of over-the-top nastiness and a beautiful bride by his side. So while I can understand your point about keeping her hands clean, I would argue she was in the best position to get away with it unobserved. Sansa was a beautiful young woman seated beside an ugly man she was forced to marry, who belonged to a family that murdered hers. Curious and gossiping eyes would have been on Sansa the whole time. Tyrion as well. But not Olenna.

I understand this position.  If you can’t accept that the author would make a POV who represses her memories, then this theory isn’t for you, and I would anticipate probably not for most people.

I think the big problem most would have is that the repressed memories would have to occur almost in real time.  I think readers have an easier time with the idea that Eddard may have repressed memories from the fairly distant past concerning Lyanna, but having Sansa repress a memory from an event that just happened might be too much.  I get it.

A while back George responded to a question concerning the purple wedding, where the question pretty much assumed that Olenna did the poisoning.  GRRM responded and then added that Olenna taking credit as being the poisoner was from the show only, and he might have a surprise up his sleeve.  Of course that also implies that he might not have a surprise up his sleeve.

ETA here’s the exact quote:

Quote

In the books — and I make no promises, because I have two more books to write, and I may have more surprises to reveal — the conclusion that the careful reader draws is that Joffrey was killed by the Queen of Thorns, using poison from Sansa’s hair net, so that if anyone actually did think it was poison, then Sansa would be blamed for it. Sansa had certainly good reason for it.

I think if George does give a twist, I think Sansa actually being the poisoner may very well be the twist that he’ll give us.  I just think he actually did lay the ground work for it in the text, which hopefully I pointed out.  Of course maybe he decides not to give a twist, in which case I assume that the event played as Littlefinger describes.

But as for Littlefinger, one thing that needs to be kept in mind is that he wasn’t actually at the wedding.  So of course there is the possibility that he’s just as much in the dark as to why Joffrey was poisoned and  who poisoned Joffrey, as Sansa claims to be.  But of course Littlefinger is never going to let on, especially to Sansa, that he’s not in complete control of the situation.  And the one thing the guy is very good at is thinking quickly on his feet.  So perhaps he either thinks Sansa is playing her own game by feigning ignorance, which he plays along with, or he may genuinely not know who would have poisoned Joffrey if not Sansa, unless of course it was the one other person at the wedding who would have at some point possessed poison, and also possessed a motive for killing Joffrey.

But as for your last point, no I don’t think I agree with it.  There is no reason to assume that the audience would be laser focused on Sansa or what she was doing sitting next to Tyrion.  But for the moment, let’s say you’re right and everyone is ignoring the king, the queen, the spectacle and everything else and just staring at the dias where Tyrion and Sansa are seated.  That’s where Olenna would have had to go to poison the food or drink that Joffrey either ate or drank.  Wouldn’t that mean that her presence at that exact moment also be noted? 

And the one thing that gets forgotten is just how small Olenna is.  And she uses a walking cane.  If she poisoned Joffrey’s wine it had to be after it was laid on the table in front of Tyrion.

For Tyrion to pick retrieve the chalice he had to stand on the table to get it.  How does the equally tiny Olenna put herself in a position to drop the poison in Joffrey’s chalice?  And how would she do it without attracting attention to herself?

On 2/14/2024 at 10:23 AM, John Suburbs said:

She knows perfectly well that the men are not going to be off to war the day after tomorrow, just as she knows that Tyrion is not going to lead a host. So Olenna is not lying. She does want Sansa to come visit Highgarden, at some point, when the time is right and the coast is clear.

Sansa is not going to be in King's Landing for an extended period of time. She is leaving, that night. She would not be doing this, and risking not only her life but the lives of her entire family, if this was not the case.

You're twisting things up a bit too much.  Olenna tells Sansa that she is leaving the day after next and wishes that invites Sansa to accompany her.  In other words, leave with me the day after next.

On 2/14/2024 at 10:23 AM, John Suburbs said:

for her own reasons, not his. If Olenna was in on this all the way back in Highgarden, then there is no reason for the hairnet at all -- just find some convenient dead drop somewhere.

Because the hairnet is a only contingency plan, in case the Lannisters marry her to Tyrion.  If Sansa is never married there is no need for a poisoning and Sansa just gets to have a nice hairnet with rare amethysts from Asshai.  But no poison. 

Olenna has no intention of personally poisoning anyone, because she's not going to risk getting caught.  The whole plot would be to get a desperate Sansa to do their dirty work for them.  But Olenna is never going to personally contact Sansa with regards to the hairnet because it's too risky.  Dontos remains the middle man both for Olenna and Petyr,  because he can always be silenced after the fact, and no one is going to believe a drunk Dontos over Olenna.  

Dontos first gives Sansa the hairnet with the instruction to bring it to the wedding.  That it will help free her.  Then when she's married to Tyrion and truly desperate, Dontos approaches her again and  tells her that Olenna is going to put something in her hairnet on the day of the wedding.   She needs to drop what she's given  int into Tyrion's food or drink and she'll be free of her marriage.  

What Olenna perhaps doesn't know is that Dontos is also passing on information for Petyr, for Sansa to find Dontos when everyone at the wedding is distracted and he'll get her out of King's Landing.

When Olenna sees Sansa at the wedding with the hair net, that's Olenna's sign that Sansa is willing to go through with Dontos' instructions.  Then and only then does Sansa get the poison through the hair net.  Olenna also adds some very subtle encouragements of her own as she replaces the stone with the poison.

On 2/14/2024 at 10:23 AM, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, you've got it all backward. If there is no reason for Olenna to go through the with poisoning, then why is she in on this plot all the back at Highgarden? What was her reason back then? And do you honestly think that Petyr is fool enough to invite Lady O into this plot unless he is absolutely sure she is going to go through with it? There is no way he can know this way back then, but he is certain of it after Sansa's wedding -- again, because her reasons for killing Tyrion are stronger than his own.

Once again it's a contingency plan to make sure Sansa is available for marriage after Margaery's marriage to Joffrey takes place.  Olenna would suspect that the Lannisters aren't going to maintain their hold of Sansa after her engagement to Joffrey is broken by marrying her to another Lannister, most probably Tyrion.  Pety is counting on this happening.

Now whatever verbal dance Petyr and Olenna play at Highgarden is anyone's guess.  But it comes away with both agreeing that even if Sansa is married, there are ways that the marriage can be ended.  Once Dontos becomes the go between, whether that be from Olenna to Sansa or Petyr to Sansa or both, Pety is always going to be kept informed about how Olenna is going to free up Sansa, if in fact they didn't spell it out to each other from the beginning.  Which they might have if it only concerned Tyrion's death, but I'm fairly certain woudld not have if it concerned Joffrey's death.

And no, Olenna's reasons for killing Tyrion aren't stronger than Petyr's.  That's complete hogwash.  Olenna's only motivation in killing Tyrion is to free up Sansa for Willas.  Petyr has his own grandiose plans for an unmarried Sansa, but he also has a very personal motivation for killing Tyrion for when Tyrion played him for a fool in ACOK.  And Petyr was also most probably responsible for Tyrion's attempted murder at the Battle of the Blackwater.

On 2/14/2024 at 10:23 AM, John Suburbs said:

It does matter because it blows your whole rationale for Petyr's actions out of the water. He did not rat out the plan because Sansa's marriage might be delayed. There was no marriage at that point. He ratted out the plan to force Lady Olenna's hand -- now she has no choice but to be the poisoner other than to sit back and let Tywin take the north.

This whole thing about Olenna trying to stop Tywin from taking the North, is your complete fan fiction.  There's nothing to suggest this, other than Olenna wants Winterfell for her House.  That's all there is to it.  This is a power grab by House Tyrell, this has nothing to do with some noble scheme to save the realm from the Lannisters.  

Sansa has always been a valuable prize.  Especially after Bran and Rickon are supposedly killed.  Because that left her after Robb.  And since Robb was in active war against the Iron Throne, it's pretty clear that if or when Robb lost Robb wasn't going to be alive to take Winterfell.  That means Sansa has always been the key to Winterfell even before the Red Wedding. 

She's an extremely valuable prize, and that's not even taking into her account her Stark bloodline which I'm sure Olenna would also covet for her House.  Her House still having a bit of an inferiority complex despite their status as the Head of the Reach.

But yes, Sansa's marriage does force Olenna's hand into poisoning Tyrion, but that doesn't mean Olenna is going to personally drop the poison.  It's too risky and Olenna would have no reason to believe that she would have the opportunity to do it without being caught.  

Manipulating Sansa to do it, though is a different story.  Let Sansa take the risk, and have the poisoner be the one person that would be in the best position to poison Tyrion.

Which has always been the weakest part of your theory that Olenna directly poisoned Tyrion.  GRRM gave us no information that Olenna was in a position to drop the poison in Tyrion's pie.  

We know Olenna and Margaerys walked over when Joffrey was humiliating Tyrion with the wine, but we dont' have any reason to believe that she was still there after the pie came out, or that she had ever gotten close enough to have access to Tyrion's food.  In reality, there is only one person that we know for 100% certainty was in a position to either poison Tyrion's pie, or poison Joffrey's goblet before he took his fatal swallow, and that's Sansa.

On 2/14/2024 at 10:23 AM, John Suburbs said:

Her only motivation is not to wed Sansa to Willas. Her motivation is to preserve her house, her realm and her people from the mad dog tyrant who grinds rival houses into the dirt even after he professes his loyalty to them. Look at his record: Reynes, Tarbecks, Targaryens, Starks, Tullys, Darrys,  . . .  This is what she fears: the Reach burned to ashes, tens of thousands of smallfolk slaughtered and left rotting in the mud, Highgarden razed to the ground, her entire family, even the little children, murdered in cold blood, her line extinguished, forever. Only killing Tyrion can turn the tide on Tywin's relentless march to complete domination over the Reach. Marrying her to Willas is out of reach at this point, and both she and Petyr know this.

Ummm, what?  I'm sorry this makes no sense.  Killing Tyrion doesnt' stalemate House Lannister.  There's a ton of Lannisters out there they could have remarried Sansa to.  None of this diminishes Tywin's power in the slightest.  Tywin is the undisputed head of House Lannister, including uncles, cousins, ect.  Whatever Lannister they would have married Sansa to after Tyrion's death would have still delivered Winterfell into the House Lannister's treasure chest.

And I'm still not sure why you think that Sansa couldn't be married to Willas after Tyrion's death.  You've never explained that.

On 2/14/2024 at 10:23 AM, John Suburbs said:

Of course she would. Petyr has his own motivations for killing Tyrion, namely, his head remaining on his shoulders. And the simple fact is that she is his pawn. She has no choice. Neither of them do. That's the only way a plot like this can succeed, when both parties suffer supreme consequences in failure or betrayal.

There is absolutely no reason to think Olenna provided the poison. A rich lady like her, was this her one and only crystal? Cressen had six. So this whole theory is untenable. If Olenna is the poisoner and she has the poison all along, there is no reason to give it to anyone and risk being double-crossed.

  For all I know Olenna, has a stockpile of poison, but why bring more than one crystal to the wedding?  She's only planning on one person being poisoned, so having more than one poison crystal does is create a chance of being caught with poison that causes symptoms of choking at a wedding where someone chokes to death.  And her reason for passing it to Sansa is simple, as stated numerous times.  Sansa has the motive to poison Tyrion, and Sansa has the opportunity to poison Tyrion, since she's the only one sitting next to Tyrion other than Garlan Tyrell.

And Garlan doesnt' seem like the type that would agree to poison Tyrion.  Olenna doesn't have the opportunity to do it, at least no unobserved.  Remeber she's not much taller than Tyrion, and not terribly mobile.  How you expect her to find a way to Tyrion's side to poison him without anyone observing this is anyone guess.  Plus, why would she take the chance of doing it herself and getting caught.

Like Petyr said, "clean hands".  Always get someone else to do your dirty work for you.  That's what Olenna wants from Sansa.

9 hours ago, Hippocras said:

No, the joust was designed to make it plausible that Tyrion murdered Joffrey. Ergo Joffrey was always the (main) target.

Except that doesn't make any sense.  Don't forget the purpose of using the Strangler.  It's purpose is to be dissolved in wine and make it look like the recipient choked on his food.  Not that he was poisoned.  So why try to frame Tyrion for a poisoning and then use a poison that makes it look like the victim wasn't poisoned?

The other problem was that it wasn't the jousting dwarves that implicated Tyrion, it was Cersei.  And as we find out Cersei had been convinced by a childhood prophecy that Tyrion was going to murder her children.  Which is why Cersei is the only one that comes to the conclusion that Tyrion poisoned Joffrey.  There is no way that Petyr would have been aware of any of this.

Had Cersei not pointed the finger at Tyrion, it's very possible that they would have thought that Joffrey choked on his food.

In other words, Littlefinger was full of crap when he told Sansa that.  But Littlefinger need to make it look like he's in complete control of the situation.  And Littlefinger is very good at thinking on his feet, as we saw with how he used the valyrian dagger to his advantage.

So Littlefinger claims credit for Joffrey's death (even though he has nothing to gain) and with implicating Tyrion, which he does have something to gain, but there was no way he could have known that Tyrion would have been blamed until after the fact.

I think the true purpose of the jousting dwarves was something even more sinister.  He was trying to further humiliate Sansa about being married to a dwarf, to make it easier for her to poison Tyrion at the wedding.

11 hours ago, Evolett said:

The entire conversation between LF and Sansa during which Sansa tries to guess the poisoners identity would be pointless if Sansa was the culprit, imo. LF then brings up the "someone who straigtend the hair net." Either this was part of the plan to dispense the poison or he had someone other than Dontos on hand observing the situation. 

Yes, go back and read my theory.  This was my initial sticking point with this theory because I always assumed that the amethysts in the hairnet were all poison.  And if Sansa was the poisoner how would Pety know that Olenna fooled with the hairnet.

But then it occurred to me, that the hair net that Sansa was given could actually be what it was purported to be, a hair net with black amethysts from Asshai.  But the magic in the hairnet lay in the fact that they looked just like the Strangler crystal.  

Thus, perhaps, Olenna did not receive the poison from Sansa at the wedding from her hairnet, but perhaps the reverse, Olenna provided the poison to Sansa by replacing one of the stones in her hairnet with the Strangler poison.  And Sansa knew that she was supposed to drop this replaced stone into Tyrion's wine when the food was being eaten.  To make it look like he choked on his food, and thus freeing her from her marriage.

So the reason that Pety knew that Olenna fiddled with Sansa's hairnet, is that was always part of their plan, first concocted in Highgarden.  That they would give Sansa the hairnet, Olenna would bring the poison, and transfer it to the hairnet on the day of the wedding.  And they concocted this plan because they knew that with Joffrey's new marriage pact with Margaery, Sansa would be free to marry and Sansa would be too tempting a prize for Olenna to ignore. 

Pety also would have convinced Olenna, that the Lannisters would undoubtably just marry Sansa to Tyrion before Olenna could have a chance to get Sansa to Highgarden to marry Willas.  Or perhaps Olenna would have come up with this on her own.  Either way, my guess is that this impediment wasn't a big deal for Olenna.  Because she had been rumored to use poison before.  So that's how she solves her problems.  And Petyr is undoubtably aware of this.  Petyr allows Olenna to concoct the plan, all the while plotting to double cross her by using the poisoning as a way to smuggle Sansa  on to his ship.

But they wouldnt' give the poison to Sansa until she agreed to go along with the plan.  And both Pety and Olenna believed that being married to the disfigured, despised, dwarf, who's family destroyed Sansa's family would be sufficient motivation for her to go along with it.  

So when Olenna sees Sansa with the hairnet on the day of the wedding, that had to be confirmation to her that Sansa was going to go along with the plan.  And Olenna further tries to motivate Sansa, as she replaces the stone in her hairnet with the poison, by reminding her of her brother's murder, her being taken to Highgarden, and all of the food that Tyrion was going to eat.

11 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Sansa knows that an unconsummated marriage is not binding so she has no reason to kill Tyrion.

Sansa has no idea that the gems are poison. Dontos only said the hairnet was magical and that she needed to wear it. It isn’t until after Joffrey died and she notices a missing gem that she becomes worried that they are not black amethysts. How could she even know to remove one and use it?

Except that who is going to set aside her marriage to Tyrion for her?  Certainly not the King, whether it be Joffrey or Tommen.  The Lannisters control the kingdom and they don't want to give up Sansa.  So they aren't going to allow the marriage to be annulled, certainly not so Sansa could marry Willas.  And of course at some point the marriage may get consummated.  The Lannisters sure were pushing hard for it.  If push came to shove, Sansa couldn't refuse Tyrion.  

So her only way out is to go through with a plan whereby it looks like Tyrion chokes to death on a morsel of food, and Sansa scoots out of King's Landing, hopefully to either the North or Highgarden where she'll be free to remarry.

Yes when Dontos first gives her the hairnet, he only says that the hairnet is magical, and it will get her home and it will get her justice.

My theory is that Sansa was fully informed as to what she needed to do only after she was married to Tyrion.  At that point she'd be desperate enough to do what she needed to free herself of the marriage.  And in this case, she would be told that Olenna would replace one of her stones and she needed to drop that replaced stone into Tyrion's wine when the food was served.  And this was going to free her from her marriage.   Now this conversation would have occurred "off screen" so the reader wasn't privy to it.

But this conversation would have occurred between the Tyrion chapter where she was married to Tyrion and before the Sansa chapter where she was preparing for the day of the wedding.  That's why on the day of the wedding we get these thoughts from Sansa:

Quote

She threw back her coverlets.  I must be brave.  Her torments would soon be ended one way or the other.

In other words, she knew that on that day she would either rid herself of her marriage to Tyrion and escape King's Landing, or be caught in the attempt to do so and be executed.  Either way her suffering would be over.

And the only way that she knew she'd be rid of her marriage to Tyrion is that her dropping the replaced stone into his wine or food was actually poison.  Undoubtably she knew this even if it wasn't completely spelled out for her.  And she knew she wouldn't be executed just by trying to escape King's Landing.  But she would be executed if she was caught trying to poison Tyrion.

But then after she committed the act, which was either attempting to poison Tyrion but fate intervened and her poisoned pie ended up in Joffrey's mouth.  Or she successfully poisoned Joffrey by dropping the stone in his goblet.  The realization of what she did was too much for her and she represses what she's done.

If Sansa was truly ignorant of the plan to poison Joffrey, there was no reason for Sansa to assume that Joffrey had been poisoned.  That's the point of using the Strangler, it's supposed to make it look like the recipient choked on his own food.  That should have been Sansa's only thought at the time, that Joffrey was choking on the pie he wolfed down. 

But instead her gaze immediately goes to the empty socket on her hair net.  There shoudln't have been any reason for her eye to go there and immediately equate it with Joffrey's death, unless deep down in her sub conscious she knew the significance of the empty socket, that it contained poison given to her by Olenna and she was responsible for getting it in the pie or the wine that Joffrey consumed.  

6 hours ago, Melifeather said:

But the fact of the matter is, Joffrey was poisoned not Tyrion. So when did Sansa make her choice and why? You present your theory as Tyrion being Sansa's intended target yet Joffrey is the one that got the Strangler. 

I think I’ve already address this.  Sansa had every motivation in the world to poison Tyrion because it freed her from the Lannisters and the hell that went along with it.  While Tyrion wasn’t a monster to her, her marriage to Tyrion left her to Joffey’s mercies.  Remember, Joffrey telling Sansa that he was still going to have his way with her after her marriage to Tyrion.  

In her mind her only way free of the Lannisters and thus free of Joffrey was getting rid of Tyrion, and hopefully escaping either to back to the North or to Highgarden where she’d be married off to someone who could protect her.  Joffrey made it clear to her that Tyrion wasn’t going to be able to protect her from him.

But I’m not sure even with that motivation, Sansa could have gone along with the poisoning.  At least not poisoning Tyrion, who had always been somewhat kind to her.  But then just when perhaps she decided that she wasn’t going to use the poison, Joffrey comes up to their table, and lays is chalice right in front of her and Tyrion.  So all of a sudden someone who she truly did hate and despise had opened himself up to being the victim of the poison she possessed.  

That’s why I think the choice of the poison being in the pie or the wine is so interesting.  In reality it could really reveal a lot about Sansa’s character.  If she ultimately decided to poison Tyrion she’d have to put it in his pie.  Take a look at that chapter, Tyrion was out of wine and was about to ask the serving girl for more, when Joffrey brought in the dwarves and ended up dumping his wine on Tyrion.  

Tyrion watches them cut the pie and serve it, and then tells Sansa that they were leaving.  The only thing in front of Tyrion at that time was his pie, Tyrion never did end up asking for some more wine.  So if Joffrey was poisoned from the pie, then Sansa had made the decision to poison Tyrion to free herself from the Lannisters grasp.  And I think the ultimate motivation to do that would have been her realization as to what happened to Ice, and equating Ice’s fate with hers.

But then Joffrey eats the pie.

But if Joffrey was poisoned through the goblet in his wine, I think that Sansa ultimately couldn’t’ bring herself to poison Tyrion, but when Joffrey approached with his goblet she made the sudden decision to poison Joffrey’s wine.  And it goes without saying that Joffrey had provided her with plenty of motivation even if this wasn’t Sansa’s initial plan and it didn’t get her out of her marriage to Tyrion.