Werthead

Something that was a bit weird:

I'm not sure a theoretical discussion about future tank anti-drone systems is worth getting quite so heated up about. For what it's worth, Bironic's assessments of the technical capabilities of the hardware involved in the conflict so far has been excellent. Meanwhile, Ukraine has decided if they're not going to get tons of Patriot missile launchers, they're going to build their own! With blackjack and hookers! Probably. The preplanning for the new aid bill was apparently more thorough than first supposed. The US pre-positioned substantial stocks of new equipment in Poland and Germany weeks ago for rapid delivery to the front. Reportedly some of it is already in-theatre. Also confirmation that long-range ATACMS are part of the new supplies. There seems to be a growing drone imbalance on the front. Russian sources have identified Ukrainian drones working by sectors for different capabilities, and Ukraine has gotten skilful at using low-cost drones for missions that artillery would have carried out even a few months ago. This has allowed Ukraine to redeploy limited artillery ammunition against higher value targets. Russian milbloggers cite Ukrainian hunter-killer drones targeting short-range artillery tube systems as a particular recent major threat, resorting in some mortar teams refusing to deploy near the front. The imminent onset of many more drones, the eradication of Ukraine's artillery ammunition shortage and the arrival of F-16s to further reduce their air cover is not filling Russian troops on the front with confidence. There seems to be something of a race to achieve further gains in the short term.

As usual, Perun's analysis of the attack is painstakingly thorough and looks at what exactly people wanted to achieve from the Iranian attack and the Israeli counter, and notes how the messaging is quite mixed depending on the audience. He does tend towards the view the Iranian attack was not supposed to trigger a larger conflict but Iran was likely hoping it would do more than it did. Most notably, the use of the ballistic missiles as the primary secondary component of the attack, under the likely assumption they could not be intercepted as easily, is hard to square with this fully being "just" a demonstration. Israel's response was considerably less grandiose but likely sent a much starker warning to Iran about Israel's capabilities and, more importantly, the utter uselessness of Iran's defences against them.

Space Gentrifier Paul Atreides! With his trust fund full of nukes!

LA Noire was developed by an initially external team (Team Bondi), but that team was incompetently managed, as was very well covered at the time, and Rockstar had to step in to save the project, with all four Rockstar studios at the time having to pitch in and help get it over the finish line despite them also working on - at different times during that period - GTA4, its DLC, Bully, RDR1, Max Payne 3 and GTA5. GTA Online has a significant support staff, I believe around 200 people, or slightly less than 10% of Rockstar's workforce. The rest of Rockstar's workforce - ~1,800 people - worked on Red Dead Redemption 2 and are now working on GTA6. Even the GTA Online staff did double-duty on Red Dead Online but eventually Rockstar decided they couldn't support both and RDO's takeup was relatively small, so they decided to refocus on GTA Online. Presumably the GTA Online team are also working on GTA6's online component.

Late-breaking report that the Novofedorivka airfield in Crimea is burning, something really big hit it. Waiting to hear what that is. Helicopters are also best used in engagements where they can "pop up" behind scenery features to engage targets and then pop back down again to avoid retaliatory fire. In SE Ukraine, the terrain is not wholly suitable for that. It is worth noting that Ukraine has been experimenting with anti-helicopter drones. They haven't had a success yet, but they had a couple of near-misses in the attack on Robotyne, with drones flying past helicopters at close range and the Russian pilots and gunners clearly panicking and beating a retreat. That was using drones in a very improvised way though, and hitting a helicopter is tough.

Rockstar made Max Payne 3, Red Dead Redemption 1, GTA5 and LA Noire simultaneously. In fact, they spun up work on RDR2 immediately after RDR1 shipped, so were early in work on that alongside GTA5, LA Noire and Max Payne 3. Later on, the same number of people they used to make 3-5 games simultaneously (2,000) were needed to make just RDR2 and then GTA6. Video games have become exponentially more time, manpower and cash inefficient with each generation, which is clearly unsustainable, until we get to games that take twice the length of a console generation to come out.

I posted one of many dozens of analyses from the satellite photos released by the US government, picked up on by numerous reputable sources in the OSINT community whose credibility has been established pretty thoroughly over years.

One of the destroyed shops being called "LIEFELD'S JUST FEET" did genuinely make me laugh. Also, Blind Al is having a moment, as the actress was also killing it on Fallout recently. Nice job at 80.

Flooding in Kurgan has resulted in the inundation of the Dobrovnolnoye uranium mine, flooding the nearby Tobol river with uranium. Depending on the quantities this could have a significant impact on local health (note that any quantity is bad, but small is obviously better than "lots"). British intelligence (and, well, common sense) has identified the next main Russian target as Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut. The goal here is to retake the ground retaken by Ukraine last year between Chasiv and Bakhmut (it already has to the north, not quite to the south) and then attack the town itself. The town is already in Russian artillery range. Ukraine has had some time to build up defences there and the town has a formidable defence of occupying high ground which is very hard to assault. But not impossible, and Russia has reportedly assigned 20,000 troops to the mission. That's actually less then they've used in assaults on Avdiivka and substantially less than the original battle for Bakhmut. If that's all they have and their start mounting their 800-1,000 casualties a day meat assaults, then clearly the maths do not work in Russia's favour. Still, there's some uneasiness over Ukraine's strength in the region and how hard they'll fight for the city, and how fast supplies can arrive to reinforce. Russia is apparently seeking victory by 7 May, Putin's inauguration, which seems ambitious. There is a diplomatic effort unfolding. Zelenskyy's peace plan will be presented to a conference of ~80 countries in Switzerland in mid-June, including Russian-friendly (ish) nations like South Africa and India (and probably Brazil). He has invited the Chinese to participate and they have made encouraging noises. Xi seems to be playing both ends against the middle, having recently met Lavrov and Scholz, will meet Blinken this week in China and Macron in Paris in early May. Putin will visit China in mid-May as the first major visit of his new term (which Russia is selling as a big honour to China, China probably sees it more as desperation). Xi I think is keeping his options open, but might be willing to consider a scenario in which China brokers a diplomatic end to the war (akin to its recent Iran-Saudi initiative, superficial as that was). I would not expend vast amounts of optimism over this scenario. Speculation over Kadyrov's health mounting after his hospitalisation last year. He's filmed himself lifting stones - with difficulty - and jogging - resulting in a red face and trying not to keel over. Kadyrov was allegedly diagnosed with pancreas necrosis in 2019, which has a reasonable 70% survival rate with surgery and medical intervention. It's unclear to what extend Kadyrov complied with those instructions, but he's not looking to happy at the moment. Ukraine has reached an agreement in principle to acquire four additional Patriot batteries from other countries, in addition to the one from Germany secured last week.

Transformers has had enough different timelines (it launched with two completely unrelated timelines proceeding in tandem, which remains weird), continuities, reboots, relaunches and retakes that doing an animated prequel comedy movie is perfectly valid. If it works or not it doesn't really matter because something else will be along soon to pick up after it. Incidentally, May is I believe the 40th anniversary of the franchise, as that's when the toys launched in the US market (under the Diaclone and Micro Change banners, they'd already been out in Japan for 2-3 years by that point, of course) and the first issue of the Marvel Transformers comic was released.

According to Mark Warner, chairman of the US Senate Intelligence Committee, there are a fair number of ATACMS in the first delivery tranche for Ukraine, they'll be in-theatre in under a week. A Slovakia citizen launched a crowdfunding campaign to contribute to buying shells for Ukraine. Otto Simko is a 99-year-old Holocaust survivor and veteran of the 1944 Slovak national uprising against the Nazis, was a key organiser. In 48 hours the campaign raised over €2 million. Some pretty apocalyptic lines coming out in Russia on Telegram and in some milblogger circles, including those cowed by Girkov's arrest. They believe the new funding deal, the loss of $350 billion in assets to Europe (even if only temporarily until the war ends, but seem resigned to it going to Ukraine) and more have made the long-term strategic outcome of the war for them much more doubtful.

Sevastopol harbour has taken a big hit, one Russian vessel ablaze. Unconfirmed reports that it's the Kommuna, Russia's largest salvage ship which has been in constant service with the Russian Navy since 1912.

US satellite photos now show that the radar control system for Isfahan's S-300/400 defence complex has been levelled. The Israeli attack did succeed in destroying the target as claimed.

No, they made all that shit up. Frank Herbert was probably building up to the reveal of a Tleilaxu empire in deep space that was the real "great enemy," based on some of the stuff in the books. A robot comeback was not really on the cards.

Even the next-most unhinged members of the MAGA-Repubs seem to think she's completely lost the plot, in a "do we need to call an ambulance here and keep sharp objects out of her hands?" kind of way. So maybe there is some hope that they can do something about her.

Equipment shortages on the Robotyne front had gotten so bad for the Russians that their last attack involved troops advancing over a fairly extensive amount of flat ground towards fortified positions, accompanied by a lone IFV, which was taken out by an ATGM in short order. This was after their previous "armoured assaults" involved troops riding unarmoured trucks and jumping clear when they were destroyed to advance without cover. Both the Ukrainian defenders and Russian attackers seem utterly disbelieving that they were doing this. Russian soldiers are pushing for a halt to offensive operations on this front and just holding the line, before they run so low on men and material that the Ukrainians could just roll back over their positions (mines notwithstanding). Ukraine disabled another S-300/S-400 complex by eliminating its radars with a HIMARS strike. This appears to be a shorter-range setup than the one they had in Crimea, but it's unclear why it was located relatively close to the front lines. Blinken is visiting China next week. China has started to show increasing signs of scepticism over the course of the war in recent weeks, although still very moderate. Blinken might use this as an opportunity to encourage China to benefit from (very mildly) thawing US-Chinese relations to the benefit of the stalling Chinese economy and to discourage further support for Russia. Sceptical that will do much, but I guess never hurts to try. Medvedev taking the news well. Ukrainian soldiers were watching the vote live from trenches along the front. Lots of cheering, some guys bursting into tears. Probably the most emotional US Congress vote of all time, for these guys.

Apparently the US military and Ukraine have been working behind the deal on what weapons and ammunition would be covered by the initial deal and this will be in Ukraine within days, not even weeks.

Interesting. Janny Wurts was apparently urged by her published to split the final volume of her Wars of Light & Shadow mega-series into two volumes. She refused, and when the published started arguing about it, Wurts noted that the book is 298,000 words in length (almost exactly the same as A Game of Thrones). She then listed the sheer number of epic fantasy novels published in one volume of comparable length or even much greater length, and her publisher backed down. Wurts also noted that the first book in the series did have to be split in two (Ships of Merior and Warhost of Vastmark) way back in the 1990s, but that book was vastly bigger than this one.

Written by Alex Garland, probably better known now as a film writer and director: he was behind current semi-controversial film Civil War, and Men, Annihilation and Ex Machina. He also wrote 28 Days Later and Sunshine for Danny Boyle. He also wrote Dredd. I've only seen the first season of Justified I fell off it hard in Season 2. I should try again. The Shield never clicked for me, but I was very young when I saw it so I'd probably appreciate it now. I did really like Six Feet Under to start with but fell off in the second or third season (I think a bunch of these shows suffered from the "Season 1 on regular TV but then it moves to expensive satellite TV from Season 3 and everyone in Britain stopped watching it," syndrome of the late 1990s to early 2010s). The Boys is great fun but it's not that good. Fargo is S-tier (Season 1 anyway, 2 and 3 are not quite as tight). Fawlty Towers I've liked but not been super-fanatical about: it's mainly a string of absolute classic jokes and comic setpieces held together by some very unfunny jokes and meandering mehness inbetween.

The Russians are really pissed off about it, they think it's the difference between victory this or next year, and possibly the war being extended past their ability to fight it. The key factor will be delivery time. Once the funding goes through, if more ammo and weapons can be deployed in weeks, Ukraine may have dodged a bullet. If it takes months and months to arrive, Ukraine could still suffer a lot in the interim. The key point is the combination of this funding bill plus all the stuff Europe has done whilst America had its finger up its arse may actually give Ukraine enough material to mount a counter-offensive this summer, either in its own right or a spoiling counter-offensive designed to disrupt Russian plans for their own offensives.

For me it goes something like (nowhere near exhaustive): S-TIER The Wire a gap, then the rest are not far off par with one another Deadwood The Sopranos (from what I've seen, this is finally high on my list for a full watch) Band of Brothers Rome Halt & Catch Fire Edge of Darkness State of Play Andor (provisional, depends on Season 2) Better Call Saul Chernobyl A-TIER Shogun (provisional) Manhunt (provisional) Game of Thrones (Seasons 1-4) True Detective (Season 1) Battlestar Galactica (Seasons 1-2, first few eps of Season 3) Breaking Bad Ultraviolet There's a lot of shows that are personal favourites but are also highly variable in quality so I'd be dubious about putting them that high up in any kind of an attempt at an objective list despite their best episodes approaching A-tier or S-tier quality (i.e. Babylon 5, Doctor Who, most sitcoms, most Star Trek shows, though Deep Space Nine does flirt with the A-tier). I haven't seen Twin Peaks since it first aired, so I'd need to rewatch to determine where to put it.

Ukraine hit Kardymovo in Smolensk Oblast overnight, setting fire to two oil depots. Both depots are still on fire as of this morning. Ukraine also destroyed the Novo Bryanskaya electrical substation yesterday. Ukraine also hit and damaged Russia's only 29B6 Container over-the-horizon radar system outside Kovylkino. This system can monitor long-range ballistic and cruise missile attacks from several hundred kilometres away. The facility seems to be operational, but one of the two primary antennas appears to have been damaged. This facility has been monitoring airborne activity over Ukraine but it has a major blindspot between the antennas where vehicles could approach and destroy it. The main reason it's survived so far is its distance from the front, but it is now in range of Ukraine's new long-range attack drones. Bizarre factoid of the day: after the 2014 invasion of Crimea and Donbas, under Russian pressure, the US apparently agreed to a stricture that its weapons transferred to Ukraine cannot be used by the Azov battalion due to its alleged Nazism. For some reason this stricture is apparently still in place. Ukraine has been getting around it in some ways but to not annoy the US, they're following it in the main. There's now a growing (and hugely late) movement to have that stipulation repealed, given that Azov's alleged Nazism is a thing of the past. The Russian losses at Novomykhailivka are officially deranged: Odd, as the Russians are not known for their sunny optimism.

Even more of a fun fact: in 2009 Alonso was eight years into his Formula One career.

Listening to the Rest is Politics podcast and Rory Stewart, who has contacts in various parts of the world since his days working in the UK foreign office, cited the Chinese government as being privately "alarmed" at some of the decisions North Korea has been/is taking, which is, y'know, reassuring.