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Brother Seamus

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  1. Quentyn is dead. Euron has no control over any sell sword company in meereen or anyone else in meereen. I strongly doubt Euron is going to Meereen. I don't see anyone taking control of a dragon in connection with the battle of meereen. Dany will come back well before the battle is over.
  2. we'll see. I hope. if we do, mark my words: Bran is the most important protagonist, and Jaime doesn't die until the end, i.e. the last 1/4 of the last book. how he gets out the current predicament with Brienne and LSH is unknown and admittedly hard to imagine - but he will. i'd put good money on it.
  3. i think all this reasoning based on the current specific factual situation in the books - that brienne has apparently been sent out to kill him, and she has found him and he has gone with her - is a fool's errand. the meta-narrative overrides these details. the next step in Jamie's story will not be his death at the hands of Brienne or Stoneheart. somehow or other he will escape, play some role in resisting the others, witness and perhaps play a role in cersei's death, and then die in the last half of a dream of spring. he is too important a character, whose redemption arc is too deeply embedded in the ethos of the overall story, to die in the first 1/4 or so of wow. if bran is the true central protagonist of the entire story - and he is - then Jamie is the original antagonist who set the story in motion by pushing Bran out of the window. they have to meet again. bran has to confront Jamie and Jamie has to confront what he did and seek some kind of resolution from bran for his deeds. the Bran-Jamie conflict has to be directly resolved. i say this cognizant that GRRM almost specializes in what you might call "indirect vengeance." e.g. Janos Slynt's betrayal of ned is avenged by jon, even though jon has no idea slynt betrayed ned. amory lorch murders the targaryen daughter, and earns a spot on arya's death list for killing yoren. yet he meets his end from the bear at harrenhall, on roose bolton's orders, due to vargo hoats betrayal. there are other betrayals. nevertheless, Bran and Jamie will meet again, and Jamie will serve some purpose in the fight against the others. his story is not close to being over.
  4. A) Who is the "Hodded Man" in Winterfell? 1 Hallis Mollen 2 Harwin 3 Someone else-the problem with all the main candidates (including these two, Robett Glover, at al)) is that Theon knew them well and would have recognized them. So I think it's someone more random, who knows who Theon is from seeing him in winterfell - virtually everyone in winterfell will know who theon is - but who Theon doesn't know. B ) Who wrote the Pink Letter 1 Ramsay Bolton-and, ramsay believes most or all of what he's written, though much of it turns out to be false; in particular, Stannis is not dead. 2 Stannis 3 Someone else C) Rickon Stark, Shaggydog and Davos return alive from Skagos and Rickon is presented to Stannis and/or House Manderly 1 Yes 2 No D) Jon Snow after the mutiny at the Night Watch 1 is dead and needs resurrection by Melissandre 2 is only wounded 3 other E) Arya's killing of Raff the Sweetling (or someone from the entourage of Harys Swyft) was done on the orders of the Faceless Men 1 Yes 2 No. this is the last straw, proving for once and all that Arya is incapable of giving up her identity as Arya of house Stark and becoming no one. I doubt she even goes back to the HoBaW after the killing and the play. F) Arya hears of or meets fArya (Jeyne Poole) 1 Yes-but not until she returns to westeros and makes her way to the wall. 2 No G) Jamie/Brienne Lady Stoneheart 1 Brienne and Jamie meet Lady Stoneheart and Jamie survives the meeting. Somehow LS is convinced to trust Brienne and Jamie enough to send them back out to look for Arya and/or Sansa. 2 Brienne and Jamie meet Lady Stoneheart and Jamie does not survive the meeting 3 Other Outcome H) The boy with Jon Connington landing in Westeros in ADWD is Aegon Targaryen, the second child and only son of Prince Rhaegar Targaryen and Princess Elia Martell 1 True 2 False (thus he is a fake = fAegon). Close call, but i say he's fake, and a Blackfyre. I am completely skeptical of all the other hidden identity theories (unless you include the gravedigger=the hound, which is true as well) but this one, which I give a 60-40 chance of being true. I) Jon Snow’s true parentage 1 Rhaegar+Lyanna = Jon Snow 2 Ned Stark + Ashara =Jon Snow 3 Other parentage J) Grey Scale will be transmitted by Jon Connington and/or Shireen Baratheon to other people 1 Yes 2 No K) The outcome of the Battle of Ice (at the Crofters Village), the capture of Winterfell is not included 1 Stannis wins and survives 2 Stannis wins but dies 3 The Boltons win L) Who is the Harpy in Mereen? 1 Hizdahr zo Loraq 2 Galazza Galare-just a guess 3 Reznak mo Reznak 4 someone else M) Robb’s will disinherits Sansa 1 Yes 2 No N) If Victarion orders the dragon horn (“dragonbinder”) to be blown, Victarion himself gains control over at least one dragon 1 True 2 False. or if he does it's short-lived. Victarion never leaves slaver's bay is my guess. My choice is (from A-N): A1-B1-C1-D2-E2-F1-G1-H1-I1-J1-K1-L3-M1-N2
  5. just because shae was not a maiden, and regardless of whether or not this was well known in westeros (i don't remember if shae's former status as a hore came out at the trial), and regardless of whether shae's maidenhood or not was known at all in Braavos, that does not mean that the braavosi playwright who wrote the fictional play within a novel didn't make her or the fictional character based on her, a maiden. the playwright was likely to do so regardless, because it would make the villain, Tyrion, even more of a villain. IIRC there are numeorus factual errors in the play as compared to what really happened according to the events in the books. My money is on shae as the character arya is playing. sansa, as the villain's wife and daughter of another victim of the villain (right? tyrion is also blamed for ned's death in the play, isn't he?) is a more important role and thus more likely to be played by a more prominent and seasoned actress with more status in the troupe. Arya is barely an apprentice actor at this stage, 11-12 years old, iirc. she's not getting a leading role or anything close to it.
  6. No way this was a sanctioned FM assassination. Killing Raff was Arya's last strike. Proof positive she can't relinquish her identity as Arya Stark, her personal history, and her list of names on which she burns to take revenge. She's done with the FM.
  7. I think many of you are overthinking the details and ignoring the story. Arya's conflict, with herself, is over her identity as Arya of House Stark. It has roots in her need to disguise her identity, gender and social class on the road with Yoren. Aside from gender this continues through her capture by the mountain and sojourn at Harrenhall. There's a respite during her time with the BwoB and the hound, but her lesson from this is that Arya of House Stark is a commodity to be traded. And then she learns her family is nearly all dead. By the time she gets to Braavos and learns that the price of staying there, of finding a home away from the horror and violence of westeros, of starting a new life, is giving up her identity, she is all in. But she can't do it. The point of her stay in Braavos is not learning mad assassin skills, but struggling with the decision to relinquish or reject her identity. She's trying to give up her Arya identity but she can't do it. She's kept needle, killed the night's watch guy, and probably a couple of other things, and now she's killed Raff. Whether killing Raff is the third or fifth strike, it's her last. The FM will realize, and Arya herself will realize, it's hopeless. She can't give up being Arya of House Stark. The Mercy chapter will be her first chapter in wow, and her last, or, possibly, next to last, in Braavos. I doubt she'll even go back to the hobaw. I expect the next Arya chapter will be called Arya, to signify that she has re-taken her identity, and she will be on her way to Westeros by the end of the chapter. The main question to me is whether the fm let her go without repercussions or try to kill her on the theory that once you join the fm the only way out is death. I don't remember any textual support for such a rule, and i think the kindly man has said one or more times that if she wants to leave she is free to leave. So, I think they'll let her go. We might see some kind of final goodbye scene between Arya and the kindly man, but maybe not, and in any case that will be it. An alternative is that she stays in Braavos (but not with FM) for another chapter or two, long enough for Dany and Tyrion and Justin Massey to show up, and then Arya hitches a ride with one or more of them back to Westeros, either revealing, or, more likely, concealing her identity. That's not my prediction though; I expect her to leave Braavos within 24 - 48 hours of killing Raff. Her FM interlude is over. After killing Raff, she's Arya Stark again. That's the entire point of including her killing Raff.
  8. That's a hell of a theory. Anyone else? Anything buried in the forum archives?
  9. much ink has been spilled hypothesizing on virtually all of the many many overt mysteries in ASOIAF, and much ink has even been spilled finding new mysteries not superficially apparent in the novels. I have spent excessive time reading this kind of stuff, (and even, lately, watching youtube videos, e.g. lucifermeanslightbringer's videos) ) and yet I can't recall seeing any real cogent theorizing about why the seasons are messed up, beyond the notion that it's attributable to some sort of magical/supernatural cause; among other things, it pretty much has to be magic, because variations in seasons like this would seem to me to be astronomically/scientifically impossible, though I am open to being corrected. Can anyone summarize the leading theories - or any theories for that matter - on how the seasons came to be irregular and what the mechanism for that happening might be, beyond just saying it's magic?
  10. Not a mystery. Trump perceived that an early strict response led by the national government would piss people off and they'd attribute it to him personally and it would hurt him politically, so he tried to pretend it was no big deal, and as a result the national government's response was grossly incompetent and lacking. Typical authoritarian incompetence.
  11. you guys haven't mentioned the go-east-to-go-west prophecy. I've always felt the most likely explanation for what this meant was that Dany has to pay a visit to Asshai before - and in some sense as a precondition to - getting back to westeros. What are the other candidates for what this prophecy means? Can anyone list and describe them in brief? I think I've seen something to the effect that it means she needs to land in the Vale first before proceeding elsewhere in westeros, but that doesn't seem plausible. Not a big enough deal to warrant a prophecy. But, I don't think a side-trip to Asshai needs to take much in-world time. With Drogon she can go back and forth from Meereen to Asshai in a week or so. This could be during the four-week hiatus in Meereen discussed above. The reason will be that there will be something she needs to learn or acquire about controlling dragons. I agree with Mithras the issue isn't pages but in-world time. The rest of planetos isn't going to have a beer and twiddle its thumbs while Dany takes a 2-year voyage to Asshai, and filling in that time period with story would expand the already overgrown thicket of subplots, not trim it as is obviously needed.
  12. I'll say this: i think he aspires to art, and literature, and deep, great, storytelling. Whether he achieves his aspiration is for each of us to judge. But, no, i don't think he does anything just to f**k with us, or even to indulge some story line or character backstory because it's satisfying on its own, unless he thinks it somehow adds much more than the sums of its parts, adds to the whole story, fits in somehow with the bigger thing he is trying to do. He started this over two decades ago. He's rich as f. This is his life's work. He's not going to f**k it up for petty spite or whatever. On the other hand . . . I think we the audience under-appreciate how much there is an element of the murder mystery in asoiaf. Yes, it's "fantasy" a la lord of the rings, and it has a big element of historical fiction, but with a fake history composed of elements of real history instead of mostly real history, but a huge part of it, and a big part that I find attractive, is the murder mystery/crime drama/whodunit/suspense novel type of thing. So, from that perspective of course there will be red herrings and misdirections and the like, because that's part of the fun of a murder mystery, but aside from that, no, I don't think he puts in stuff just to mess with us.
  13. Bingo. If not this then what's the point of the whole Blackfyre back-story? Like I said, I am 60-40 in favor that Aegon is an imposter and that fAegon is a Blackfyre, the last of the Blackfyre line. And I put the Blackfyre thing and the fAegon thing together. I see no point in making Aegon an imposter unless it fits in with some other part of the story, and the part of the story this fits in with is the whole Blackfyre story.
  14. agreed. this carries little weight, other than, again, just being part of the overall Blackfyre rebellion story, which, one can speculate, may/should/must have some importance to the main story to justify the time and effort and page count that have been devoted to it.
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