ThinkerX

I have been seeing more and more social media posts and articles pointing out Trump's increasing incoherence. The AOC thing stems from the majority of the conservative base being *OLD* - and dropping dead at an accelerating pace. I used to see this firsthand on my mail route in my deeply conservative corner of the country - over a dozen years, conservatives went from an overwhelming majority to a much smaller majority because they were dying. I figure that by 2028, enough of these people will be gone to where AOC might have a chance - especially because the issues that conservatives are in denial about will be overwhelming. Likewise, I am no fan of increasingly ancient politicians of either party clinging to office.

So... if Biden wins the election in November of this year, dies immediately after eating a hearty Thanksgiving Dinner, and then Harris gets sworn in come January of 2025. I could see the Republicans challenging that one in court. They wouldn't have a case, but that wouldn't even slow them down. The other one is Trump eating one hamburger too many two weeks before the election. I could see a lot of Republicans looking at Trump's running mate (whoever that will be) and demanding the election be delayed or some such. Then again, all this might make things easier for AOC in 2028...

So... Trump wins Super Tuesday this month. His trial for insurrection gets underway in June. He claims the Republican nomination in July - and then gets convicted of insurrection in September. This could be a can of worms..

I am starting to wonder about something here... The claim is Russia now has momentum, owing in part to Ukraine's munition shortage. Yet, suppose, just suppose, this munitions shortage is not as severe as advertised. Suppose that this is 'public knowledge' because Ukraine is setting the Russians up for a sucker punch - they let the Russians advance, and fall back, with comparatively modest artillery fire. Then, the Ukrainians launch a devastating counterattack with long-range munitions that are supposed to be expended. Suppose this attack cost the Russians 100,000+ troops over a day or three. What might the effects be?

Nope. This court will rule that Trump, and Trump alone has near near blanket immunity,

In other US political news... I put this one in the 'we can dream' category. Though, if Cruz does something stupid enough... Tight Race in Texas Senate: Ted Cruz Faces Strong Challenge as Polls Ring Alarm Bells (msn.com) Other R's, of course, are doing stupid and cruel things... Republicans are risking a shutdown over a program that should be uncontroversial (msn.com) Rising food prices and more sign-ups from eligible parents have placed a major strain on the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children — better known as WIC. The program faces a shortfall of roughly $1 billion; if not fully funded, states may have to turn away mothers and children within weeks. To avoid this, Senate Democrats have opted to add a White House-requested increase in funding to the spending bill that funds the Department of Agriculture, which oversees WIC and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as food stamps. That relatively small boost has House Republicans wanting changes of their own in exchange. Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md., who chairs the House Appropriations Subcommittee with jurisdiction over the USDA, has demanded a potential shift in how SNAP benefits work. Under Harris’ proposed pilot program, SNAP would only be able to be used to purchase only “nutrient-dense” foods, rather than snacks and sodas. That shift would transform grocery store cashiers into “the food police, telling parents what they can and cannot feed their families,” the National Grocers Association wrote in a letter to congressional leaders last week. It’s not a great sign that this holdup is taking place over something that should be as uncontroversial as preventing new mothers from needing to join a waitlist to see if they’ll be able to afford groceries and formula. Congressional leaders were hopeful after a Tuesday meeting at the White House that any partial shutdown could be avoided, but the timing crunch may necessitate yet another short-term funding bill. Even that isn’t a guarantee, as there’s still a chance that a continuing resolution runs into hurdles ahead of the deadline. ---- Some here might find this one especially satisfying. Doubt it will get much coverage on right-wing media... Lauren Boebert's 18-year-old son Tyler arrested, faces five felony charges (msn.com) Tyler Boebert, the 18-year-old son of Rep. Lauren Boebert, was arrested Tuesday in Colorado related to a string of alleged property thefts and vehicle trespasses, police said. The police department in Rifle, Colorado, posted on Facebook that Tyler Boebert was arrested at approximately 2:30 p.m. on Tuesday and he faces five felony counts. The charges include four felony counts of criminal possession of identification documents and one felony count of conspiracy to commit a felony, according to police. According to the Garfield County Jail, Boebert was being held on 22 possible charges, including misdemeanors. Tyler Boebert was listed as a current inmate at the jail as of Wednesday morning. There was no bond information listed. https://assets.msn.com/staticsb/statics/latest/views/icons/textExpand_filled.svg Continue reading In a statement, Lauren Boebert said "I love my son Tyler, who has been through some very difficult, public challenges for a young man and the subject of attention that he didn't ask for. It breaks my heart to see my child struggling and, in this situation, especially when he has been provided multiple opportunities to get his life on track." Lauren Boebert continued that "as an adult and father, Tyler will take responsiblity for his actions and should be held accountable for poor decisions just like any other citizen." Her office announced in June 2023 that Tyler had become a father to a baby boy. ---- And it looks like somebody in the Democratic Party finally found their wallet and the will to use it. This could lead to major shifts in state-level politics. Democrats target statehouse races in first big campaign spend of 2024 (msn.com) Democrats are targeting seven battlegrounds in their first campaign spend of the year on state legislature elections, the Guardian has learned, and intend to draw “clear contrasts” with Republican candidates tied to former US president Donald Trump. The latest round of investments will deliver “critical resources” to Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) said. Related: Harris attacks Trump over Roe v Wade at first campaign rally with Biden The DLCC’s total spending for this electoral cycle is now close to $750,000. The money is used to support staff hiring, digital infrastructure, field operations and other expenditures. Once seen by outsiders as sleepy backwaters, state legislative chambers have come into sharp focus in recent years because of their role in curbing reproductive freedoms, imposing book bans, assailing transgender rights and making it harder to vote.

I think a huge part of the reason for the slow EV transition is the longevity of gasoline-powered rigs. Somebody buy a new gas rig today; odds are it will still be on the road in twenty years. Likewise, a gas car that is six or eight years old now, will likely still be on the road come 2035. That dampens the demand for new EVs. On the other hand, by 2030-2035 there should be a *lot* of used EVs out there at decent prices.

Unless Trump eats one hamburger too many. Or a near miracle happens and he is found guilty of insurrection in the next few months. Then, by default, Haley becomes the GOP POTUS candidate.

Given that the war is effectively a stalemate at present, Putin may use the election as a platform of sorts to order a full general mobilization, not merely against Ukraine, but Western (NATO) states as well. Actually attacking the likes of Finland or the Baltic States, though, would be suicidally idiotic.

Republicans have been recruiting evangelicals since the 1970s - aka Fallwells 'moral majority.' They attempted to a silent takeover.

This seems bizarre if true... Russian war blogger dies in apparent suicide after revealing Moscow’s losses (msn.com) The Russians (?) I debate with about the war elsewhere tends to invert the casualties suffered by Ukraine and Russia. (Ukraine taking far more losses than Russia). They also tend to regard NATO as a sort of 'Mask' for the US, not an actual alliance. The Finns were termed 'bootlickers' for joining NATO. I got termed a 'vomit eater' for expressing skepticism about the citizens of Adviika (sp?) voluntarily cheering the Russian 'liberators.' (I said the response seemed unlikely given that it was Russian artillery shells that had turned most of the town into rubble and no doubt killed many of the citizenry.)

I have difficulty accepting the validity of this survey. Perhaps there are one or more major systemic errors. If accurate, though, the climate change deniers are far, far more numerous across the globe than I'd thought. The other thing that feeds into the 'climate change is a hoax' bit is the modest successes in reducing climate change via the likes of 'green energy' and energy efficiency. These partial mitigations, never acknowledged by the deniers, offer false evidence to support their claims of 'situation normal.' I can't link to the article for unclear reasons, but... The researchers looked at an impressive 7.4 million tweets from 1.3 million Americans from 2017 to 2019. An open language AI helped them to classify the posts as "for" or "against" climate change. The Michigan University study found that the highest concentration of climate change deniers was found in the central and southern United States. Furthermore, there were more Republican voters who did not believe in the science behind global warming than Democrats. They based their data on a SAP and Qualtrics survey asking over 10,000 people in 30 countries, "How much do you trust what scientists say about the environment?" Can you guess which country was the most sceptical about what scientists have to say is happening with our planet? The study found that only 23% of Russians trusted what scientists said about the environment. That means 77% of Russians do not trust climate scientists, which is a pretty high percentage of doubters! The next most sceptical country regarding scientists and the environment was Japan. According to the study, only 25% of Japanese respondents said they trusted climate scientists, so 75% do not. The next most sceptical countries were: Ukraine, with only 33% trusting scientists, the United States, with 45% and France, with 47%. North of the United States in Canada, 51% of Canadians said they trusted what scientiests said about the environment "a great deal or a lot." Poland and Germany also had 51% of respondents say the same.

Putin has set an ambitious goal for his army. Short of massive human wave attacks combined with throwing all of their remaining armor and artillery shells at the Ukrainians, it seems like this will flop big time. I suspect it'd flop big time regardless of the troops and materials expended. Seems to be a hint or two that Putin is not completely secure on his throne. Putin Gives Military 3 Weeks to Seize Entire Region of Ukraine: Kyiv (msn.com) Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of GUR, said during an interview with Interfax-Ukraine that the Kremlin wants control of Luhansk before Russia's upcoming presidential elections. The country's presidential election is scheduled to be held on March 15-17. Russian President Vladimir Putin is the overwhelming favorite to win what Western observers have said is a rigged contest. Though polling indicates Putin is popular among the Russian public, support for his war in Ukraine has begun to slip. Thus, victories such as the capture of Luhansk Oblast could give Putin something to show his people for the sacrifices of war.

Biden seems to be contemplating a series of Executive Orders that would mimic much of what was in the now-dead bipartisan immigration bill. Let the screaming begin.. Biden considering major new executive actions for southern border (msn.com) Among the ideas under discussion include using a section of the Immigration and Nationality Act to bar migrants from seeking asylum in between U.S. ports of entry. The administration is also discussing tying that directive to a trigger — meaning that it would only come into effect after a certain number of illegal crossings took place, said the three people, who were granted anonymity to discuss private deliberations. A trigger mechanism was part of a bipartisan Senate border deal that never reached the floor earlier this month. During the deal’s construction, President Joe Biden repeatedly said it would have given him the authority to “shut down” the border. The administration is also discussing ways to make it harder for migrants to pass the initial screening for asylum seekers, essentially raising the “credible fear standard,” as well as ways to quickly deport others who don’t meet those elevated asylum standards. Two of the people said the policy announcements could come as soon as next week ahead of President Joe Biden’s State of the Union speech on March 7.

Biden does have a long string of modest positive successes. Republicans, though, have nothing but complete failures and downright hateful policies and laws to put forth. Hence, Biden wins, not so much on merit, but because the other side is that horrible. I am starting to think there will be eight or twelve 'surprise upsets' for Republicans in supposedly safely red seats (R +10 or better) this year - House and Senate both - as a direct result of their policies.

And the Grift goes on... GoFundMe claims Trump's page meets its terms and conditions... Trump's GoFundMe page is up to $414,000 as of sometime this morning. Well...lessee here...74 million blockheads voted for Trump. If one in ten chips in ten bucks to this thing... GoFundMe Responds to Calls To Shut Down Donald Trump Fundraiser (msn.com)

Bipartisan House effort to bring back a version of the Ukraine/Border deal. Doubt it will go anywhere, but it might be interesting to watch Republicans tie themselves into knots as to why it is unacceptable... Bipartisan House members unveil new border, foreign aid proposal (msn.com)

And the Trump GoFundMe page has collected $365,000+ I wonder if it'll top the two million mark by this time next week - or if it will get shut down before then...

This is where Trump Tower 'accidentally' catches fire - and coincidentally turns out to be heavily insured.

I'm not sure if this is encouraging, depressing, or simply an internet hoax, but the Trump GoFundMe page is up and running...and supposedly has collected $84,000+ Donald Trump GoFundMe Raises $84K of $355 Million Target in 24 Hours (newsweek.com) And let us not forget the $399 honey gold Trump sneakers that have just been released... (I dunno... are they a fashion fit with MAGA Hats... Trump hawks $399 branded shoes at ‘Sneaker Con' | AP News

This is Trump we are talking about. Minor technicalities like that won't even slow him down. I was referring to Trump raiding the funds of the Republican Party proper, not merely his campaign money. (The money that theoretically goes to key races around the country.

This is where Trump steals the Republican campaign coffers to pay his bills.

A Republican won the special election for a vacated House seat in Oklahoma. Nothing unusual for a deep red state. What is unusual, was that the democratic challenger came within 5 points (261 votes) of winning that seat. That might set off an alarm bell or two in the Republican ranks.

Given what amounts to an ongoing population implosion, there might not be much left of Russia in twenty years.

So far it is just photos on my Facebook, but supposedly Taylor Swift has been 'banned for life' by the 'Academy of Music' for being 'woke.'