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About JLE

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  1. The bloody flux could, much more prosaically, be the reasons why Victarion's ironborn ships cannot stay at Meereen to wait in hope of Dany's return if she is not there when they arrive. They will come - fight against the Yunkish / Ghiscari besiegers, who will be caught between two foes - Victarion will have the horn blown - *one* dragon will answer it, probably Rhaegal (stated as flying over near the fleets, in the reading of the Tyrion preview chapter) - but the ironborn and the Meereeneese defenders will not be friends with each other, especially if Victarion comes face to face with Barristan, who knows him for what he is, namely a pirate. And especially not if the dragon horn is blown. I think Barristan will be killed by the stolen dragon - we don't as yet know whether it obeys Euron ultimately, or Victarion, although Victarion may *believe* for now that it is him (and, I think, be mistaken). But Victarion and his men are not cut out for taking a walled city whose defenders retreat inside, nor do they know how to use or build the siege towers that Barristan and his men have been forced out of the walls to destroy - not because they were throwing rocks or offering any damage to the walls (the defenders could safely sit tight against that), but because they were hurling corpses over the walls to spread plague inside the city. Thus... Barristan probably dead, sellsword companies scattered or in confusion, Victarion has *one* dragon, and the dragon might be his only way to breach the walls of the city, BUT, there is plague in the city, he will not want to remain and his own men will rebel if he tries, thus Victarion and his ships leave without Daenerys. On the way out, they run into the Volantis armada. Floating hulks of wood and cloth sails... easy prey for a dragon: Volantis's armada never reaches Meereen at all. Tyrion manages to survive everything and meets the now-injured dragon Viserion and nurses him back to health (in the preview Tyrion chapter it was noted that Viserion had quit the battle: and Tyrion, in an Obviously Foreshadowing Moment, was seen to clean up a blood-spattered white dragon cyvasse piece. At some point Tyrion's knack for looking after injured beasts is going to come very much in handy, as is his ability to improvise a saddle suitable for himself. Daenerys, returning with a Dothraki horde... has brought them to a city with no exit (except back the way they came), no working ships (but a whole load of sunken, smashed-up hulks) and no knowledge of how to repair or rebuild them, nor the time or materials to do so, its surrounding farming hinterland devastated by war and a full-scale epidemic of the bloody flux breaking out inside the walls. No food, no way out, starvation and plague, and the Dothraki having to loot whatever's left (including nearby Yunkai, since Astapor is already effectively destroyed) in the futile hope of finding enough food to track back to the Dothraki plains along a road they will have already looted everything from - Daenerys will indeed lead the greatest Dothraki horde of all, to the ends of the world - the ends of *their* world, to destruction and death, and bring destruction to all she touches. Such is the way of the dragon. And with nothing left in Meereen, no ships to carry troops, and learning from Tyrion that a dragon has been stolen... she'll be off after her "child", ALONE on Drogon's back, one woman and one dragon versus one continent, on a foolhardy race to Westeros, not even necessarily to claim the crown but to "save" Rhaegal from his ironborn master, or "save" Westeros from Rhaegal... Leaving Tyrion behind with the still-injured Viserion, and Archmaester Marwyn (currently heading eastwards by ship having just left Oldtown) arriving too late to meet anybody but Tyrion... although he may be able to carry Viserion and Tyrion part-way back until Viserion is fit to fly again. In the meantime I think the false dragon (Aegon, who is no true Targaryen though he may be a Blackfyre) will have been killed by whichever ironborn lord has gained control of Rhaegal, most likely Euron. (Again, Cyvasse Game foreshadowing: "You should have moved your dragon to the centre of the action, she was too far away to save you" - Daenerys has no good reason to fight Aegon even if he disputes her claim to the throne, since she could have had the option of marrying him: but Aegon has come without her, on a bluff, he has NO dragon at all, and will be killed before "his" true dragon arrives.) I believe Aegon's main function in the story - plus the death of Quentyn Martell, killed by a dragon (also serving as the person who freed two dragons to serve a master other than Dany) - will mainly serve to turn Dorne *against* Daenerys, especially if Aegon marries Arianne and both are killed by a dragon.
  2. You don't set up a disease of this kind without it going to play *some* important role in the plot. At some point, someone's going to set off an epidemic of it. (Jon Connington?) And at some other point, given that it's supposed to be incurable, someone's going to be miraculously cured of it. (I really hope this is Shireen...)
  3. JLE

    Manderly Wrote the Pink Letter

    I think Ramsay wrote the Pink Letter, but has not simply beaten Stannis's forces in battle. Either he has been deceived by Stannis himself into the belief that Stannis is dead, or Stannis's own Northern army have themselves turned on Stannis and killed him and turned his head and his sword over to the Boltons in Winterfell, with a view to a subsequent betrayal. HOWEVER, my money is on Stannis still being alive, and this being a trick on his own part: not least because, although I do not think he will actually sacrifice his daughter, the situation in which he has the choice whether or not to do so is a situation that must be set up for him to make that choice, one way or the other. And he cannot see Shireen again unless he survives the defeat of the Boltons - since the weather now traps him near Winterfell so he cannot leave Winterfell and live unless his own forces take and hold it, driving the Boltons out. In any case there is no good reason for the Northmen to murder Stannis: he has aided them both against Wildlings and Ironborn, given Deepwood Motte back to its rightful lords, promised to put a Stark back in Winterfell, and come to the aid of the Wall. And he is about to pay respect to the Northern Old Gods - at Asha's suggestion, true, but Asha is showing signs of becoming one of the few ironborn who can learn from the situation, and of being a person with whom the North could make peace if she were to be ransomed back. All of these things are reasons for the Northmen to accept the aid of Stannis in driving the Boltons out of Winterfell and putting a Stark there: if there is a betrayal, it won't take place till AFTER that. And in any case, I believe the Northern lords would be more likely to allow him safe passage out of the North if they chose to maintain their independence, or even offer him an honourable alliance. Certainly the Glovers will not betray him, nor will the Clansmen. I think: (1) Ramsay has been deceived - and Stannis is party to the deceit, and will pop up later. Stannis is finding a way to fake his death and allow his sword to fall into the hands of the Boltons. (2) There is a good possibility that Ramsay will murder Roose, thinking that with Stannis dead, there are no longer any enemies outside Winterfell for Bolton forces to unite behind. However, Roose has either concealed the official seal of House Bolton, or the maesters have instructions to keep it away from Ramsay until such time as Roose (alive) tells them that Ramsay may use it, and of course if Roose is dead, he cannot give that instruction. So all Ramsay has is the wax, rather than the seal to imprint into the wax. (3) Wyman Manderly, as hostage for the good behaviour of his own forces (who have been sent out to oppose Stannis), has already planned to take his own life and leave the Boltons with no hostage, and Wylis Manderly (also in on this plot, and leading the Manderly forces) is now free to desert or defect. (4) Hother Umber, inside Winterfell, is in fact in league with his brother outside, and they are Stark loyalists. The fact that Mors and company handed Theon and Jeyne - whether or not they knew her to be a fake Arya rather than the real one - to Stannis rather than back to Ramsay, proves that they are pro-Stark rather than pro-Bolton. When the real Stannis comes calling, Hother Umber and his men will be among the ones that open the gates from the inside: it being far easier to take a castle with assistance from inside, than by storm from outside. Also inside Winterfell will be the host of House Karstark - in reality some of Stannis's own northern allies wearing Karstark colours: the people who "helped" Ramsay "escape" from the apparently "successful" assault on Stannis himself at his camp. (5) Theon is in no fit state to travel, and even less fit state to try and make a claim to rule the Iron Islands to undermine Euron even if he *did* become fit to travel. At present his only function in the story is to be an eye witness in Stannis's camp. He could claim the kingship in theory, but not in practice. Asha already knows there is no hope of escape - Theon could not survive the travel in the snow, being in no condition to hunt for provisions or carry the supplies to get anywhere. Asha herself stands a chance of survival by being ransomed: she has been an enemy to the North, but not a betrayer, and shows signs of being willing to make a deal. Theon is about to be beheaded, but the intervention of the talking ravens may keep him alive a while longer. (6) This is actually a thing that Theon shares with Stannis: the ability to claim the kingship in theory, but not in practice. They cannot live as kings... but they could die as kings. Two kings to wake the dragon. (7) And it just so happens that the Bastard Dragon (i.e. Jon Snow, bastard of Rhaegar Targaryen by Lyanna Stark) is dead and needs waking... I think where he's going is that Theon and Stannis himself will end up being the sacrifices (and a sacrifice there must be, "only death can pay for life" to do it properly, otherwise he will come back wrong) that bring Jon back from death. In fire and blood, as well. Theon gets the blood - to die by beheading, in traditional Northern fashion: I think it will be Stannis himself who ends up in the fire (as per his own vision in the flames, described to Davos long ago in ASOS: the burning king whose crown burned him to ashes.) "Two kings to wake the dragon" and "Fire and blood to wake the dragon". It all fits...
  4. JLE

    Aegon TWOW

    No. Euron is not going to Meereen. Victarion is already at Meereen, and is going to have the horn blown, thinking that he has gained control of it. The horn will control one dragon, for whomever is recognised by the horn's magic as "the horn's current master". This much is pretty much certain: Victarion is already there, Daenerys isn't, the dragons are flying wild, and there is no way that the horn is not going to achieve *something*. My guess: Whatever agency Euron has on Victarion's ships to keep tabs on him (for there is no way Victarion has as free a hand as he thinks) - be it magical or a human agent - will be the real one in charge. My money's on the dusky woman being involved somehow, whether by her own choice or otherwise. But the dragon will seem to be at Victarion's service while Victarion comes back - either with his ships, having failed to get Dany, with a dragon following along: or with "his" dragon, outpacing his remaining ships. Then when he gets back, it gets revealed that Euron is in charge of it all along, and Victarion dies. Or, Victarion breaks Euron's control of the horn with Moqorro's assistance, and binds a dragon to *himself*, only to get back and discover, the hard way, that Euron - with the help of the dragon-lore book looted from Oldtown perhaps, if he manages to get it intact (and if it is not stolen by Jaqen H'ghar in disguise as Pate, with the Faceless Men trying to get revenge on Euron for double-crossing them over the matter of payment for Balon's death) - is still master of the situation, and contrives to regain control of both horn and dragon. Either way, Aegon won't live long. Also, either way, Victarion will HAVE to be long-gone before Daenerys can return from the Dothraki.
  5. JLE

    [Spoilers] EP609

    Ramsay had better die at some point. If not in the battle, then by an official formal execution with Jon wielding the sword and the rest of the Northern lords looking on and recognizing his right to do so..
  6. JLE

    [TWOW SPOILERS] Theon I, part vi

    I don't think Asha is planning to kill Stannis - in any case, as a prisoner herself, she is in no position to do so. After all, he's spared her when he could have executed her, and he's treated her and the ironborn prisoners reasonably well - even allowing some of them to be ransomed to serve as bodyguards for Tycho Nestoris. It is clear, from the fact that Stannis has talked to her, (a) he considers her worth talking to, and (b) he recognises her situation as different from Theon's: while she was an "enemy" to the North, she does not have the additional angle of having been a betrayer from a position of trust, as Theon was (both from having been a ward / hostage, and also from having been sent as a trusted envoy by one who considered him a friend.) Also, there were no mass murders and sackings from her, on the contrary, she treated the prisoners of Deepwood Motte reasonably well - possibly upon finding that their leader was a woman (Sybil Glover) - and has even been back to the Iron Isles and openly stated that, having taken part in the attack on the North, she now believes it was a foolish thing to have started. At the Kingsmoot, she argued *against* the position that she had followed under Balon. Thus, she is an ironborn person that the north and indeed Stannis can negotiate with in good faith. In fact Asha's suggestion to Stannis, of executing Theon under the heartwood tree, would most likely win him Northern support and cement the alliance. She knows that there is no hope of the North or Stannis letting him go - the only hope of his escape is in the confusion of an attack, but then he would most likely be recaptured by the victor, and Stannis or the Northern Clans would be a more merciful option than falling back into the hands of the Boltons. Stannis is so far holding back on executing Theon, but he has good, sound military reasons for doing so, which should be enough to satisfy the Northern Clans: namely, Theon may actually understand more of how the Boltons are likely to think and act, and his knowledge could prove useful.
  7. JLE

    [TWoW Spoilers] Aeron I (Balticon)

    I believe the whole Azor Ahai problem is that the intial one *didn't* - he sacrificed his wife, the person he loved most AFTER himself. And I think, if the myth is true, that he got it wrong. My question is, will the next Azor Ahai be the one that gets it right?
  8. JLE

    Aegon TWOW

    I think Aegon will take the throne briefly but be killed by Euron when Euron gets power over a dragon: the question of his legitimacy and descent will end up being irrelevant. Cersei may survive and outlive him by the good fortune of having been driven out of the city by Aegon. Imagine it... Aegon and forces drive Cersei out of King's Landing. He is getting ready for his coronation - and to attempt to dismiss rumours that he's a fake... And a dragon appears in the sky. The people begin to cheer: a harbinger of the return of the dragons perhaps, and the end of the wars, perhaps a symbol of good luck? It stops. It hovers over the public square where Aegon is receiving his crown from the High Septon. Then... one single blast of fire. BOOM. Goodbye Aegon, goodbye High Septon, and indeed, goodbye most of King's Landing, because of all the stored wildfire Cersei left behind that she never got the chance to set off. The dragon is Rhaegal, mastered by the horn, and his controller is Euron because Victarion failed to break his binding over the horn. Aegon's dragon - Daenerys - was "too far away from the centre of the action and unable to save him", as foreshadowed in his loss to Tyrion at cyvasse. Euron lands in the smoking wreckage of the city - the Throne itself being one of the few things that has survived intact - and none dare oppose him. Then Daenerys arrives back, and the dragons begin to dance, and wherever the dragons dance, the people die...
  9. JLE

    [Spoilers] EP607

    What if it's to Littlefinger... not asking him to bring his army north, but getting it to attack the Freys so the Northern hostages there can escape? Or... perhaps... to Old Walder Frey, with the news of how Fat Walda was murdered by Ramsay Bolton (as was Roose Bolton who made the deal) and surely an actual murder is ten times worse than breaking a marriage contract, therefore the Freys have no business supporting the Boltons against the Starks any more, and since it's *his* keeping Northern lords prisoner that is now holding their families on the Bolton side, could he perhaps see his way to setting them free and suddenly Bolton has has no bargaining chips to keep the Northern lords on his side?
  10. JLE

    [TWoW Spoilers] Aeron I (Balticon)

    I don't think Victarion assumes Euron has not done this: indeed, far from it, he now knows that he must himself do what's necessary to "claim" it for himself, thus breaking the previous "claim" (after all, Euron would have had to do it himself). After all, if Euron has NOT "claimed" it, then it will still acknowledge a previous master - even if that master is long dead - and thus, "not Victarion". Dumb as a stump he may be, but I don't believe he's dumb enough to misunderstand that. I don't, however, think he will succeed in mastering the horn for himself, although he may for a time believe he has succeeded.
  11. JLE

    [TWoW Spoilers] Aeron I (Balticon)

    I think there is a whole lot of foreshadowing that Theon is to be king - with a twist: He's a cripple. And a eunuch. Having exchanged one captor for another, his situation is only better in that Stannis is not actively torturing him - he is merely kept in chains and fed until the day of his end. He won't be able to travel far or fast. And if by some miracle he gets back to the Iron Islands, they'll never have him. Nor will anywhere else: the whole eunuch thing will be too big a problem for a position that is, after all, by and large meant to be hereditary (although not so on the Iron Islands). His record is hardly great: he has nothing to brag about, no great achievements that didn't turn to disaster. He has, plain and simple, nothing to offer the ironborn... and Asha also knows that he has no hope of escape. Even if Stannis loses the battle, Theon cannot flee anywhere in the chaos, he will only die in the snow if he is not retaken. His only hope even of a "clean" death is if Stannis goes ahead with his promise of execution by beheading... which is why Asha pleaded for Theon's death to be by the sword, the Northern way, rather than by the fire, the way Stannis has dealt with other criminals on the march (murderers and cannibals among his own forces - never simply for refusing to bow to the Lord of Light.) ...Except that, unlike everybody else, he is the only person of whom it can be said that he did not either stake a claim that was rejected (Asha, Victarion, Ironmaker, Farwynd) or be present and fail to stake a claim of his own, thus acquiescing to the Kingsmoot's choice (like every other lord who did not stand.) He can't live as a king. But, thanks to his claim being unresolved, he can *die* as a king. I think he will be one of the "two kings to wake the dragon ... fire and blood to wake the dragon" that may relate to Melisandre's prophecy. And, of course, since he is due an execution for his former crimes - and Stannis has promised that he will do it the Northern way, by beheading, which at least is quick - then he will fulfil the "blood" part, which means that if the prophecy is true, another king will die in fire (a king, not a child princess, hint hint: and guess which king has already seen a flame-vision of a king burning away to ashes?), possibly as part of the same incident. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ As for Euron and the Faceless Men: What is the FM's price - is it "give to them", or "give up" what they most value, as the price for their services? If so, Euron might conceivably have had a dragon egg and thrown it into the sea... (but WHERE? Was it near where Balon fell? Was it near Pyke? Or indeed, was it near Old Wyk where the kingsmoot was held?) Since when he has done, or at least paid for, a murder which could be seen almost as a blood sacrifice since the Faceless Men have a religious-ritual element to them. And he has had the dragon horn blown three times, presumably after doing whatever was necessary to bind it to his ownership. In a hall, on a hill, that are said to have been built from the bones of a sea dragon. So... We have a dragon horn that has been blown three times, a missing dragon egg, a blood sacrifice (it took fire and blood to hatch Daenerys's three) and a whole lot of "sea dragon" imagery around (even a Sea Dragon Point at the closest point of the mainland to the Iron Isles). As far as I can see, this is all too much to be coincidence... And if he really *did* give up his dragon egg, only to hatch it and gain control of the resulting dragon (and it looks like dragons grow FAST - look how fast Daenerys's three have grown) - then he has ended up paying nothing and got an extra ace up his sleeve: in short he's double-crossed the Faceless Men. Which could conceivably explain if Jaqen / Pate is in Oldtown looking to steal the book that Euron wants, to prevent it falling into his hands should he sack the town. Either that, or the FM (or a faction among them) are working with him and Jaqen is there to help Euron, but I'm not sure that's actually the case... In any case. Since Dany isn't going to meet Victarion over there (Victarion is not going to sit in Meereen for unspecified time, he's there to grab and go)... it's what the dragon horn does, and who is its master. If Euron is still the horn's master, then he gets a dragon (probably Rhaegal, who was reported as flying near the ironborn ships in a Tyrion chapter): if Victarion has broken Euron's control on the horn thanks to Moqorro, then I think Euron already has insurance against that, and a plan to defeat his brother and take control of whatever Victarion brings back. (see all the sea-dragon imagery above: also if he has any means of power over krakens, to sink Victarion's ship, that would work too.)
  12. JLE

    [TWoW Spoilers] Aeron I (Balticon)

    Also, Quentyn set the dragons free, otherwise they would still have been chained... So that they are participating in the Battle of Meereen while not under control of any person or faction... So that at least one of them will be within range of the dragon horn when Victarion has it blown... And in the end, it will be controlled *against* Dany. Because Dany is not there to meet Victarion, nor will Victarion be able to stay to meet her. In the preview Tyrion chapter that GRRM has read, it was hinted that Rhaegal (the green one) was flying over near the ironborn warships - and is thus within potential range of the horn - while Viserion (the white one) has left the battle. The fact that Tyrion is later seen wiping blood off a blood-specked white dragon cyvasse piece may hint that Viserion is injured (hence fleeing from the battle) and that Tyrion will nurse him back to health and become Viserion's rider. Leaving Rhaegal heading back towards Westeros - under either Euron's control, if he is still bound to the horn as its true "master", or Victarion's. In either case, Rhaegal will be the first dragon of Dany's three to come back to Westeros, and its master will have free rein to do whatever he likes there until he is opposed by another dragon - probably Dany on Drogon, belatedly hearing the news that one of her "children" has been stolen from Meereen. Tyrion, arriving late on Viserion, may prove to be a third factor in the battle, but Dany and Euron will be *against* each other: Drogon will fight Rhaegal in another Dance of the Dragons. Whether Rhaegal is the first dragon *at all* to be seen there, depends on what becomes of Euron's dragon egg, whether he threw it into the sea or gave it to the Faceless Men (I believe the former is more likely than the latter - and given the sea-dragon imagery that exists, the later appearance of a sea dragon under Euron's control would not surprise me one bit). My best guess is that Euron has some surprise plan left over for if Victarion does succeed in coming back with a dragon, and betraying him - either he thinks the horn is still "his" and will bind the dragon (Rhaegal) to him, or he has plans to defeat Victarion even if Victarion becomes a master of dragons. This is where I wonder about his sea dragon egg being a potential factor - or indeed the fact that Euron appears to be after the dragon-lore tome in Oldtown.
  13. JLE

    [TWoW Spoilers] Aeron I (Balticon)

    I don't think even Quentyn was necessarily bloat. If news of his death gets back to Dorne, it could prove the vital thing that sets Dorne *against* Daenerys, and perhaps makes them declare for the False Dragon (Aegon) against the True Dragon (Daenerys).
  14. JLE

    [TWoW Spoilers] Aeron I (Balticon)

    Where is there *any* evidence of a connection between Bloodraven and Euron? Where is there *any* evidence of Bloodraven having made a "big mistake"? Book, chapter, text?
  15. JLE

    [TWoW Spoilers] Aeron I (Balticon)

    I think one thing's for certain... GRRM just blew the show completely out of the water. There's no way they can NOW get from where they are, to where GRRM is. If he had read the Aeron chapter years ago, we might have actually seen some Greyjoys earlier: instead of which, to introduce them as pretty much a Diabolus Ex Machina would ruin the show (worse than it already is), having had zero foreshadowing of it in the show.