Universal Sword Donor

14 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Do we know if Argilac knew that Aegon was already married? It seems like his marriage proposal was an act of desperation rather than a calculated move. 

Given that Aegon and Argilac had fought on the same side in the war against Volantis and he's the last remaining dragonlord in the world, its fairly safe to assume that Argilac would be aware of his marital status. He was aware of Orys' alleged bastardry, after all.

The proposed alliance is actually not a bad one on paper, it is just a matter of which land was involved. It was definitely driven by desperation but the counter proposal -- basically "give me the kingswood and massey's hook -- " was pretty fair. Argilac didn't have an heir outside of his daughter anyway, so the land would be controlled by Aegon either way, once he passed on. 

Given that the options of marriage for his daughter were likely limited to his bannermen -- he hated dornishmen and reachmen while the ironborn were taking his land -- he wasn't going to get a better offer that would help defend his lands. Orys was a noted commander and warrior at this point and the best friend of the only remaining dragonlord in the world. 

Argilac made a mistake, not Aegon.

2 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

We don't know, but considering that he's polygamous and married his sisters...if I were Argilac, it wouldn't really be that big of a logic jump to assume he might accept a third wife. 

It would be pretty safe to assume he knew Aegon was married. They both fought in the alliance against Volantis during the century of blood. He’d be relatively foolish not to keep tabs on an erstwhile ally who has the only three dragons left in the world. After all he did “know” that Orys was a targ bastard.

The third wife play might have been a Hail Mary but it would have a reasonable chance at working. It is a lot of land for a negligible price. Aegon offering his brother as an alternative was a pretty good value that still would have brought Aegon to the table. Argilac chose poorly.

Ok let’s do this scenario. Each house in the reach is relocated to the north and only house Bolton is in the reach. Each castle is given a boy roose Bolton and a weirwood with the optional abacus attachment.

they are also each left handed. 
 

who wins 

20 hours ago, Alden Rothack said:

I am aware of the Free companies

small sellsword companies who are affordable by most mid-ranked lords are going to have work most of the time, either due to feuds or trade protection, gold and food alone are going to provide a lot of work

The only small scale feuds we see have individual freeriders not small companies. And those smal companies for hire are going to protect merchants against what? Other small bands of armed soldiers who don’t have jobs or income?

there’s a reason we hear and read of hedge knights and similar but not sell sword companies in Westeros. 

9 hours ago, Alden Rothack said:

Honestly it isn't going to make a difference in that respect

most sellsword companies aren't large enough for the crown to care and the ones that are a single lord couldn't afford to have on retainer

If they are too large for a single lord, they are large enough for the crown to care about. Unemployable groups of armed men with no source of income are going to be an issue for the countryside. See Free Companies in France in the 1400s.

Conversely, if they are small enough for a lord to hire but are not hired -- there's really not a sustainable business for groups of warriors in Westeros -- you just have a bunch of smaller armed bands with no source of income. At that point they are going to become highwaymen / brigands / what have you in the vein of the Kingswood Brotherhood. The local lord will need to tamp down on that.

Either way it's not really conducive for even small groups of freeriders / mercenaries in Westeros to work unless the crown has been destabilized to a significant extent. Even then it's short term

12 hours ago, The Hoare said:

Because knighthood is a andal tradition and deeply tied to the Seven

Paraphrasing Luwin, a mounted man-at-arms is interchangeable with knight as far as the north is concerned. More importantly Lord Karstark and his men are looped into this discussion, so we assume it applies to both the fighting and governance aspect. Otherwise they would not be lords.

the rest honor the old gods, and name no knights ... but those lords and their sons and sworn swords are no less fierce or loyal or honorable.

On 4/4/2024 at 12:40 PM, House Cambodia said:

My point is that if Robb hadn't taken so many northern forces south of the Neck, including the garrisons of Torrhen's Square and Deepwood Motte, Balon would never have considered attacking the western shore or Moat Cailin. The main garrisons could have been assaulted, but they'd have been quickly relieved by troops Robb at Winterfell would have called on. Balon saw an opportunity which before the start of the Clash of Five Kings wasn't there.

I mean, yeah, that's explicitly laid out in ACoK. Balon has been waiting since RR and rebuilding the Iron Fleet

On 4/3/2024 at 2:26 AM, KingoftheRiversandtheHills said:

Looking at multiple maps of Westeros, why is the Riverlands so weak? I get that "they are the punching bag" of the rest of the seven kingdoms and that they are very divided, however some parts of the Riverlands should be much richer and stronger. The Saltpans for example. They are at the mouth of the Trident, which leads into the rest of the Riverlands and into the Westerlands. The houses surrounding the Trident and leading to the Wasterlands should be much stronger for the same reason. Also, the Saltpans seem to be the only place where there is an actual salt mine in Westeros. If ships are able to get into the Westerlands through Tumblestone and the Red Fork then ships from Braavos, Lorath, and Pentos would be passing through the Trident to go there instead of sailing around Westeros and passing through the Stepstones. Also, the geographical weakness of the Riverlands that I can see is at the border with the Crownlands. It shouldn't be that hard to blockade the Riverroad and has a lot of towns on and houses guarding the entrance to the south. I get that they are divided, but they shouldn't be so divided that they let the whole of the Riverlands be invaded. 

The issue is they can't. Ignoring the major issue that the ships from Essos would be sailing against any current, let alone a fast and deep current, the tumblestone isn't accessible from the west coast of Westeros as it starts high in the western hills

23 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

I conceded the point about Torrhen Stark - maybe I should focus on it being a brief jaunt that resulted in no loss of life. But regarding the Stoney Shore, Balon Greyjoy explicitly and opportunistically declared independence and reaved along the west coast in response to the north being depopulated by Robb. Had Deepwood Motte and Torrhen's Square had their usual garrisons, the IB would not have attacked. In normal times, the North had decent natural defences (and a 700' wall) north, south, east and west. It never had any need to open itself up to Southron enculturation.

He had pirates reave there as a distraction because the Iron Fleet was going to block the route north at Moat Cailin. 

You are to harry the Stony Shore, raiding the fishing villages and sinking any ships you chance to meet. It may be that you will draw some of the northern lords out from behind their stone walls.

Lord Balon had let no word of the hosting escape the Iron Islands, and Theon's bloody work along the Stony Shore would be put down to sea raiders out for plunder. The northmen would not realize their true peril, not until the hammers fell on Deepwood Motte and Moat Cailin.

Which reinforces he wasn't attacking Stoney Shore to conquer. He was doing it to weaken the northern forces left because the IB generally don't do siege warfare (effectively). He *did* send Asha to conquer Deepwood Motte, so we know that has a population center and the ability to resist. Deepwood Motte with it's normal garrison wouldn't have held out against 1000 IB who besiege the castle in a surprise march. Torrhen's square can and did hold out against IB siege only to lose after Rodrik brilliantly strips the castle of its war time, theoretically diminished, to retake Winterfell, where he left a doughty force to fend off 20 guys with gappling hooks*.

This doesn't even begin to address the historical nature of the IB occupation of large parts of the north which were under WF's protection in times of peace.

I can't and won't argue the point the west coast of The North is vastly underpopulated. That's always been a bit of an outlier; however the war and its levies marching are not why those particular parts of the north are vulnerable to a large attacking army.

*Ser Rodrik is an *awful* commander and an even worse choice as castellan of WF.

9 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

The only reason they were vulnerable to attack was because Robb had taken almost the whole northern fighting force down South - even Torrhen Stark hadn't done that. It was an unprecedented misjudgement.

Torrhen stark took at least 50% more men (30k vs 18-20k) south to the trident. As to the Stony Shore, there really isn't much there. It's very thinly populated to the point where the closest population center is probably Torrhen's Square.

the northmen will cede us Sea Dragon Point and all the Stony Shore. Those lands are thinly peopled, yet ten times larger than all the isles put together.

There is barely anyone to raid and no one to respond close by. We see Tallhart men respond to the reaving as well as march to WF. Even if you stick someone there to fill the relative power vacuum, there aren't enough resources to sustain a denser population.

He's not a human chimera.

5 hours ago, SeanF said:

If the Realm faced a major threat, and the LC was the best general, I think it would be entirely legal (and sensible), for the King to appoint him.

Defence of the Realm is entirely in accord with the Night’s Watch vows.

Then you have the Jaime Lannister conundrum of vows: They are bound not to interfere in the politics of the south but they are bound to defend the realm of men.

So if it were an external threat, say the Triarchy or Braavos invading, then it would well make sense to appoint him Hand and general of the realm's armies. If it's not external, both history of the NW and their vow would prevent them from interfering. Hoare's brother didn't march south when HH was burned. Qorgyle didn't chevauchee in the north when Dorne sent men to the trident. Aemon remained at the wall while his family fell apart and lost RR.

21 hours ago, Evolett said:

Well, according to the CotF, the great lions have all been slain but Cersei does mention a couple of caged lions down in the depths of Casterly Rock. Now, imagine trotting these out against wild Nymeria. My bet would definitely be on the direwolf!

The CotF are in the far north. Tywin's own father was rescued from lions near Lannisport and that sprouted house Clegane. Given that Ghost would likely be torn apart by the boar at the wall, I don't think one direwolve would fare especially well against a lion. Their strength is in the pack; the same could be said for the lion.

I'd imagine at least 8 of the entrants will be a part of the Winged Guard. But it would be rather funny if Ser Lyn was appointed. He's probably one of the most skilled fighters there, by reputation if not entirely by resume.

2 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

It's really not.  He warns vaguely of side effects but not specifics and not clearly and he agrees to two doses, saying there must be no more after that for six months.  If it's going to risk killing him Colemon would come right out and say it, surely? 

He's forced to dose the kid against his will and then, when delivering an ultimatum, the response we get is "We'll see what your boss says." Colemon is bartering with people far more powerful than him. And more to the point, she doesn't give any option of back talk. She immediately leaves the room he's in and tells herself she and LF have larger concerns than the boy in the same chapter that LF tells her to be careful around Myranda Royce, which she repeats to herself multiple times. 

She clearly thinks the longer term effects on SR are worth the short term safety for herself.

On 3/23/2024 at 7:38 PM, Alester Florent said:

If I remember rightly, Mance himself acknowledged that Mormont could have held the Fist against him, had he been foolish enough to attack.

He says he'd lose 5 men for every crow if he were dumb enough to attack it. There's no water up top so just holding the brook against the ranging party would likely get them to surrender or die forcing their way out. Holing up there instead of marching back to the Wall was a bad idea. Mance even says as much in the same conversation:

“That old man?” Harma’s tone said she did not believe it. “He came himself? Then who commands at Castle Black?”

 “Bowen Marsh.” This time Jon answered at once. You must not balk, whatever is asked of you.

 Mance laughed. “If so, our war is won. Bowen knows a deal more about counting swords than he’s ever known about using them.” [...]

“My Lord of Bones, keep the column moving at all costs. If we reach the Wall before Mormont, we’ve won.”

11 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

As already explained, the context is one in which SR had to negotiate descending an extremely steep and treacherous mountain path on a mule and then cross a narrow ice bridge with no sides without having a fit and throwing himself down the mountain to his death. The danger of not making it down alive was far far greater than the danger of administering sweetsleep one more time. NOT to give him a dose would be to endanger his life. It was, if you like, a no-win situation, and she chose preserving his life in the short term over possibly risking his life later on.

And that nuance rendered moot when she tells him to administer more later that night or soon thereafter.

8 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

Disagree - he's the commander of the rangers, and it wasn't by any means a routine ranging - they'd all proved failures, and he needed to literally take command. Obviously, in hindsight you could criticise the decision.

Agreed. Normally someone like the First Ranger leading a ranging this large would be fine. We see a comparable scenario where Marsh leads 100 brothers to fight the Weeper. But he's gone along with Sir Waymar, so going in force to find the Wildlings and / or the missing rangers is a solid idea, if not amazingly executed (too many men, bad personnel decisions). There are few people he trusts to lead -- he said as much to Tyrion and Jon -- and he's perfectly qualified to do so. Everything was fine until he decided to fortify the Fist instead of march back to the wall, which is much easier to defend and doesn't risk losing 30%-50% of the NW fighting men*.

* Based on how the Wildlings assaulted the actual Wall, the fist of the first men would have fallen rather quickly and the watch would have been slaughtered / captured to a man.

10 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

When does she order or administer additional doses?

The exact quotes are a page or two back but once in the eyrie for the descent and then two more at gates of the moon (?) for the feast and when he meets his banner man. Then when the maester tells her no more for at least six months she says “we’ll see what my dad says” and drops the mic. 

1 hour ago, the trees have eyes said:

When does she do this? 

She doesn't order higher doses, but she does order additional doses with the implication there will probably be more. So with the sweet sleep not leaving the flesh, it will have a more detrimental effect.

16 hours ago, Darth Sidious said:

She has taken long trips to get to where she is. She can’t keep a fire burning 24-7 all of that time. A better reasoning for keeping a fire lit is her fear of the dark. She is afraid of the terrors that come with the darkness. While Bloodraven is telling Bran to embrace the Dark. Bran even likes the Dark now. You can see these two are going to have a duel in the future. The priestess of light Melissandre versus dark lord Bran.

She also sees Bloodraven / Bran in her visions and asks if they are creatures of the Great Other

A wooden face, corpse white. Was this the enemy? A thousand red eyes floated in the rising flames. He sees me. Beside him, a boy with a wolf's face threw back his head and howled.

15 hours ago, JoyfulJoy said:

No offensive, but who are you are? Are you just apart of a group or alt accounts, I really do not want to offend, but I don't get on who you and your friends are.

Are you talking to anyone in specific, in general, or the poster immediately preceding you?

1 hour ago, House Cambodia said:

It is true to say her moral compass is starting to be skewed by LF's training, doubtless to the delight of LF, but it has a way to go at this point.  None of where we're currently at screams "I'm intentionally murdering a child" to me.

At this point I am going to have to ask if you've ready literally any significant part of what I've written in the thread. It doesn't appear to be the case.

8 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

I don't read those references that way. Sure, she's overmedicating him, but she's just following Littlefinger's suggestions. I don't think she truly understands how strong the stuff is.

Whilst her character arc is certainly leading her to a point where she will deem it justifiable to kill Littlefinger, I see nothing in her development so far that points to her murdering an innocent (if very annoying) child.

The first time we see it introduced is by the maester to LF in front of her:

“Sweets. Cakes and pies, jams and jellies, honey on the comb. Perhaps a pinch of sweetsleep in his milk, have you tried that? Just a pinch, to calm him and stop his wretched shaking.”

    “A pinch?” The apple in the maester’s throat moved up and down as he swallowed. “One small pinch . . . perhaps, perhaps. Not too much, and not too often, yes, I might try . . .”

Then Colemon asks about the bleeding nose and shaking, repeats it doesn't leave the flesh, and asks again about the bleeding nose before saying he'll do it twice more. 

“It was too soon. My lady, you do not understand. As I’ve told the Lord Protector, a pinch of sweetsleep will prevent the shaking, but it does not leave the flesh, and in time . . .”

“I try, my lady, yet his fits grow ever more violent, and his blood is so thin I dare not leech him any more. Sweetsleep . . . you are certain he was not bleeding from the nose? Very well.” They paused at the foot of the stairs. “But this must be the last. For half a year, or longer.”

If her POV more or less ended at this point, I would be inclined to agree with you. However it doesn't. She self monologues about what was best for SR isn't what's best for the Lord of the Vale (also him). Then she explicitly says they have larger concerns than SR and all but tells Colemon he'll continue to dose sweet sleep as LF deems fit.

“You had best take that up with the Lord Protector.” She pushed through the door and crossed the yard. Colemon only wanted the best for his charge, Alayne knew, but what was best for Robert the boy and what was best for Lord Arryn were not always the same. Petyr had said as much, and it was true. Maester Colemon cares only for the boy, though. Father and I have larger concerns.”

At this point she's been indirectly told it's poisonous, directly told it's poisonous, and pushed for additional doses against the insistence and advice of the "doctor." So again, she very well knows she's poisoning him but it's a lesser concern against the governance of the Vale, disabusing notions of rebellion, and somehow avoiding the headsman's axe via treason against the IT. One can debate how far she's willing to go to protect herself, but given her mimicking of and adherence to LF -- the man who watched her father be arrested and then alter beheaded because he turned down LF, the man who murdered Ser Dontos for aiding him -- and the fact she considers poisoning SR the lesser concern, she absolutely would poison him to save herself, maybe even LF.

5 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

It doesn't have to be intentional. LF and the maester have been chronically overprescribing him sweetsleep for a while now. They (or at least LF) may have led her to believe too much is good for the kid's epilepsy, and she still naively trusts him. She may innocently administer the final dose.

No her POV shows that she knows exactly what is happening w the sweet sleep.