Universal Sword Donor

I'm not sure how this is relevant at all to my point. The intent is irrelevant. What actually happened is relevant. No need to put the cart before the horses if both are consumed by dragon flame. Both the Gardeners and the Hoares opposed Aegon with force and were wiped out. I said nothing about them attacking Highgarden. I'm talking about what actually happened. Hypotheticals and potential head canon are great but irrelevant to the points you made. He eliminated two ruling lines with dragon fire (and spear/bow) and neither one was lamented or fought back for by the bannermen after if happened. It's bears resemblance to what Mace did after the sack of KL when he didn't really have anything left to fight for. Yes Aegon's primary goal was freeing the Riverlanders from being under the tyrannical yoke of IB oppression, not conquer them himself. We know he offered the IB lordship over themselves but do not know if they would have kept the RL. Showing the realm what dragons could do had already been done and he had to show them again at the Field of Fire.

Not that many guys burned at Harrenhal. It wasn't a dragon holocaust. It was relatively modest, totally in line with the losses suffered in a normal battle - perhaps even less so. It was a very impressive show of force and likely scared the survivors who saw the dragons in action for their life, but it was more show than slaughter - and that's the reason why Aegon succeeded. My point being, in cased it wasn't apparent, was that the FoF and HH were basically equally devastating to the ruling line of a kingdom/region. You asserted the reach wouldn't capitulate if Highgarden were treated the same, but when their ruling line was wiped out the Tyrells and the entirety of the Reach bent the knee as well.

Is burning alive with all your male relatives on a battlefield really any different than burning alive with all your male relatives inside a castle?

It's kind of a hint and they might have been weakened, but they remain the second strongest house in Dorne, despite having participated in 3 BF rebellions. Doran exiled Oberyn for killing their lord in a duel and had to send Frog boy to serve as a ward (as anhonor / hostage?) years later. They weren't *that* powerful in the first place, given the sheer number of kings Dorne had and they don't seem to have lost any power, prestige, or martial responsibilities. The fact it took 11 years and a Martell lord's life to finally beat them doesn't really sound like a crushing to me either. The Martells were a pretty weak house. Until the coming of Nymeria, no Dornishman would ever have counted them amongst the great powers of the country. Indeed, though surrounded by kings on every side, the Martells themselves never presumed to claim that title, and at certain points in their history, they willingly bent the knees to the Jordayne kings of the Tor, the pious Allyrions of Godsgrace, the many petty kings of the Greenblood, and the mighty Yronwoods of Yronwood. We also know that Nymeria increased their fighting strength 10x and they ruled land 30 miles wide and 150 miles long, and we at least see the landscape from Sunspear to the Water Gardens. It's pretty brutal -- well I do like a cool sea breeze -- for farming or anything similar. I would be very surprised if the Yronwoods couldn't give the Martells a run for their money if all of Dorne sat out, especially with the Martells lacking a suitable military leader in their current scenario. Increasing the size of the their lands would make sense in pretty much any other story or real life, but hands down the most consistent thing we've seen in ASOIAF is conquered foes bending the knee and being confirmed in their lands and titles. Aegon did it with everyone he conquered. Robert did it with most and didn't increase his own personal holdings (SE went to Renly, DS to Stannis). Tywin left the Reyne and Tarbeck lands -- at least their castles -- were left vacant after he crushed them, despite Castamere possibly having producing gold and silver mines.

Pretty easy actually. The Goths (visigoths iirc) destroyed the canals going into rome and they suffered bad. If it's more formidable, though, I'd point to Alexander rerouting the Euphrates (might have been a roman) or the Lezarde at Harfleur as real world examples of ancient or medieval armies moving rivers. As to where it leads or where it comes from, we don't really have much of an idea. Maybe maps from LOAIF are better but I haven't seen much detail that would let us know one way or another. People get thirsty real quick though

It's not really impregnable. Actually it's quite vulnerable, just not for the common reasons. If the sweetwater river is disrupted or re-routed, the population is pretty well screwed. The only water left is the lagoon water, which has to be boiled. Firewood is expensive as hell in Braavos and has to be brought in by barge. We don't know if it's brought it through the titan or downriver from the forests inland. Either way, they are going to be hard pressed to provide enough for the entire city to have potable water and that can be cut off almost completely it the inland river ways are blocked or set up for ambushes.

WRT to the Ryswells, I am fairly certain they were retconned to be stronger. They aren't listed as a principal bannerman of the starks but then they are a primary force in the north and an important ally of Roose. We never see any actual Ryswells south of the Neck on Robb's campaign, and they really aren't mentioned till ASOS (spearmen at that). Yet we see there are four Ryswells that essentially rule the Rills and they are named and prominently mentioned in AFFC and ADWD. They rule an area the size of the Karstark and Umber lands. Much like lady Dustin, I'd imagine they kept most of the strength back otherwise people would not be feting lady Dustin, herself a Ryswell, as a rival for power to Roose. Roose has the majority of the strength at WF, so the two families combined have to be able to raise a similar or larger amount to fight him off.

Kevan basically confirms it in his epilogue. He says Tywin was waiting for Aerys to summon him back to KL but he never did.

That’s not the same scenario though. One was a contested throne (Aegon/Rhaenyra) and the other one was a few hundred people against the entire realm

FWIW I think the Boltons were losing, but yeah the fighting wouldn't have been done just like that.

When I comment on one specific thing, I don't care about the rest. I usually delete them If I'm not on mobile. If you see me break out the post into quotes, I respond under each one.

I have no thoughts on this Theoretically, maybe. Practically, no for the reasons I mentioned - Jaehaerys and his coalition, Vermithor, his hand being sexist/traditional, seized the Red Keep Rhaena was older and had a similar sized dragon, but she had no one to back her claim and she hated KL. I have no thoughts on this

The Manderlys leaving the Hornwood lands under their control contributed to the stream of refugees and so did the ongoing fighting between the Manderlys and the Boltons. I can't attribute how much to either.

Because you didn't read what I wrote. I didn't address 2/3 of the three points. I only addressed your assertion that Rhaena being the favored successor wasn't in FAB.

If you cannot derive that from my post, I won't hold you back.

Yep. As bad as those casualties are, he made the correct decision. Honestly I am a bit surprised Paxter didn't push for it, though he might not have known about the IB yet. The Arbor and the Reach are far more important to the IT than Dragonstone. Cersei knows it has a small garrison and yet claims it's a knife at her son's throat (). Her "devious" plan to get Loras hurt may have worked, but it also killed the cream of her remaining forces near the capital, which is something I am sure the Tyrells felt terribly about doing. I subscribe to Loras not being critically hurt, but even if he is the Tyrells severely weakened the Lannisters in the short term and in the long term and were able to get their fleet back to the Reach much more quickly. It's a win-win for them.

I have absolutely no idea who would become King / Queen if Tommen and Myrcella died. Stannis and his line are already attainted. Edric is a bastard and hidden away in Lys. Probably would be a council to figure out who should be king. Mace might try to grab the throne for his daughter based on her marriage(s) to the Baratheons but he would not be able to keep the 7 kingdoms together. Short of Aegon or Dany seizing the throne, splitting up the kingdoms seems most likely.

I didn't end any debate. I said there's merits to both your points.

That's a very long way to type out, "I can't believe someone quoted text I didn't see when I re-read it." Man it's an open question. Only #1 is really up for debate.

Put the bottle down and leave the revolver in the safe. I don’t agree with everything he said. Its only paranoia if they aren’t out to get you, but in this case it is paranoia.

“Some suggested that Rhaena herself might have the strongest claim to the crown, as the firstborn child of King Aenys and Queen Alyssa. There were even some who whispered that it was Queen Rhaena who had somehow contrived to free the realm from Maegor the Cruel, though by what means she might have arranged his death after fleeing King’s Landing on her dragon, Dreamfyre, has never been successfully established. Her sex told against her, however.” It was less concrete than it should have been, but the combo of Jaehaerys putting together a coalition, being a dragon rider, and Rogar, then the hand, was a sexist sumbitch. “This is not Dorne,” Lord Rogar Baratheon said when the notion was put to him, “and Rhaena is not Nymeria.” But to say it wasn't considered by some to be true would be incorrect, though we don't know who those people are.

I'd assume there would be some number of smallfolk streaming south as Manderly gives over control of the castles to Ramsay. It's not as if it isn't common knowledge that he's a monster. Would you rather live where the "Lord" starved your former liege lord, starts a fight over land he realistically shouldn't have a claim to, and hunts and rapes peasant girls all over his land? There's open negative talk of the Boltons in the Merman court, the wine sinks, Lady Dustin mentions it, and Roose chastises his son for sowing tales in Bolton lands. How much of the refugee population is due to that? I have no idea, but it's certainly something to take into consideration.

This

That's the most common interpretation I've read, and I agree.

Either Eddard to go with Renly and seize Joffrey or Arya at HH where she could kill Tywin, Kevan and probably the mountain.