Maithanet

Those are absolutely ridiculous odds, I don't know where he could have gotten that. See here, the Aug 2022 odds on KC to win the super bowl were 10 to 1. You could maybe shop around and find 12 to 1 or something, but 65 to 1 is absurd. It makes me wonder if this guy is just telling tales.

If the Jets sign Carr, I'd say 30-1 sounds about right for their odds to win the SB. They would need to make additional moves and hope things go right, but it would be somewhat similar to the Rams situation last year. Yes, the Rams were better in 2019 than the Jets were this year, but the Jets have more talent still on rookie contracts than the Rams did, so the possibility for significant improvement does exist. I would also note that 30-1 odds are not particularly great. If the Jets sign Rodgers then they become a really high variance team with a high ceiling but an even lower floor than Carr (Rodgers could be washed, and it will take a lot to bring him on). At that point 20-1 seems reasonable, but probably not more than that. I still struggle to see how the Rodgers Jets defeat the AFC big dogs like Buffalo, Cincy and KC. But of course, any betting calculus must consider the strong possibility that the Jets do not land either Carr or Rodgers, in which case the chances of them winning the Super Bowl is very poor indeed.

I get the impression that in order to get a HC job as a black candidate you need a great resume and a great interview, whereas white candidates only need one of those. As for whether black coaches get the same chances as white ones, it's obvious the answer is no and Bieniemy is far from the only example. Middling white coaches like Jack Del Rio (12 years as a head coach at 2 franchises, 3 playoff appearances and zero wins) or Joe Barry (3 different stints as a defensive coordinator, but never actually led a good defense) get chance after chance, but at most organizations black coaches struggle to ever get that big promotion to coordinator or HC.

Yeah, that's probably a factor. But who gives a shit? This is like not drafting a guy because his combine was middling, even though he dominated college for 4 years. He would literally be the first case of this ever. In general offensive coaches seem to get the head coach job more readily than defensive coaches, on the hope that they will be a "qb whisperer", and yet Mahomes has had unquestionably the best career start ever, and the Cardinals don't want that guy working with Murray? WTF? It makes no sense. Even if you assume that racism is playing a factor in the hire (which I absolutely think it is), it is still not enough to explain why he hasn't gotten a shot.

Sure, but the Chiefs offense under Bieniemy has been the most productive offense in NFL history. And the Chiefs latest playoff run is perhaps the strongest example yet, as I really felt that the Chiefs outcoached both the Bengals and the Eagles. In the Owl, the offensive coaches manufactured two walk in touchdowns, and another of Kelce in single coverage against a safety with plenty of room (basically the same as uncovered).

The Cardinals have hired Eagles DC Gannon as their head coach. AKA the guy that Bieniemy just torched to win the Super Bowl. Yeah that makes sense, you need a defensive guy if you want Murray to become a franchise qb.

The call was made on 3rd down, which was an incomplete pass to stop the clock with 1:54. If the call was not made, it's 4th down and the Chiefs almost assuredly kick the FG. At which point Hurts and co would have ~1:45 down 3 points. Would they have done it? Nobody knows. It's possible the Chiefs D gets a stop with the Eagles having more time constraints to limit their rushing threat. It's also possible the Eagles get a fg to go to overtime, or they score a touchdown and it's the Chiefs who are scrambling to answer with under a minute left. If the Chiefs kick the field goal there, I would rate it at something like: Defensive stop 40%, Eagles fg => OT 40%, Eagles TD 20%. Obviously that's just my opinion. If it goes to OT, it's mostly a coin flip, with a small advantage KC. So the win percentage for KC if the penalty isn't thrown is approximately 60/40, maybe 65/35. After that penalty, it was like 98% (have to hope for a fluke fumble, a missed chip shot fg or a Chiefs player accidentally scoring a touchdown). So that's a huge swing in the game, which sucks. But you are correct that the Chiefs were likely to win even without the penalty, and it's hardly evidence of them not deserving to win the game. Nowhere near the level of the Rams win over the Saints in the 2019 NFC Championship.

The contrast between the amount of pressure the Chiefs got on Hurts (virtually none) and the Chiefs got on Burrow was quite noticeable. That said, the Bengals D line got about the same pressure as the Philly D line, which I did not expect.

I thought the game was well officiated aside from that one defensive holding call. The refs had control of the game, and it was called consistently. Yes, they were letting some minor stuff slide, but I don't have a problem with that. For the game itself, hats off to the Chiefs O line and the offensive coaching staff. They were the difference last night. The Eagles defense was built on the D line dominating the line of scrimmage, and they simply couldn't do it. The Chiefs had some big running plays in the second half, and Mahomes wasn't sacked all night. Part of that is him getting rid of the ball quickly, but it's not like other teams didn't also have that game plan vs Philly. I really didn't think that the Chiefs O line could win the battle with the Philly D line, but win they did. And the Chiefs coaching staff did a great job. They identified in film that when a guy went in motion the Eagles were passing him off too early, and if he just stopped, he would be uncovered. They ran that play and had TWO easy red zone touchdowns in the second half. Hope Bieniemy gets a HC job this offseason. The Eagles offense was good enough to win. On 9 meaningful possessions they had 35 points (4 tds, 2 fg, 2 punts, 1 turnover). If you score 4 points a drive, you ought to win the game.

For Durant? Yes. That is less draft capital than the Nets gave up for Harden and Durant is a lot better than Harden. I would have expected the Suns to have to part with Ayton if they wanted to get this done. Bridges is a decent starter, a good complementary piece for a contender, but nothing more. He's not good enough to be even 3rd banana on top 10 team.

Also, was that really all the Nets could get for Durant? Why were they in such a hurry to trade him? Could they really not have held out for more? Seems pretty odd.

Luka has got to be wondering why he his team couldn't swing a deal like that. Durant + Luca would be a legit title threat, and instead he's on the eternally sinking ship that is the Kyrie Irving experience. The west just got a lot more interesting. The up and comers in Denver and Memphis may hold on to the top seeds, but the Suns, Lakers and Warriors have the biggest names, championship experience and (possibly) the help of the refs.

I think Brady's retirement means Rodgers has to go at least one more season. He can't let his retirement be the second most important of the year.

Apparently the Broncos gave up a 2023 first (from Miami) and a 2024 second (with a third rounder coming back). That is an amazing haul for New Orleans. Broncos gave virtually no draft capital between this and the Wilson trade. And in both cases they got fleeced. The broncos are not contenders.

Michigan scored 24 points in the 3rd and only cut their deficit by 4. Yikes.

That taunt would have more punch if they hadn't already lost earlier today.

Michigan looks better than they were last year. Georgia looks about the same (perhaps a bit better on offense and worse on defense). Michigan was outclassed by Georgia last year, but I think it'll be a lot closer if they both make the championship. Georgia would still be the favorite, but you can't just pencil them as champs quite yet.

We haven't been using any apps, no. I will check and see if they are helpful.

Last year the board game thread recommended I try out Jaws of the Lion rather than the full Gloomhaven, and that was an excellent recommendation! It is a bit simpler, but way cheaper ($40 bucks instead of $130 for the full game), and it is still a whole bunch of content such that my friends are unlikely to finish it for years (we don't play that regularly). So thank you @Werthead for the good recommendation. I will particularly compliment the Learn to Play setup of JOTL. The first five missions are fairly easy, but they introduce the different elements of gameplay gradually so that it you can get started without feeling overwhelmed. It was a well designed, and still fairly fun tutorial. The only real downside I'm finding for this game is that the game elements do not fit in the box, so it only half closes, and after playing through 6 scenarios, the box is already starting to show some wear. Oh well!

It is hard for me to understand why you would want to remain on a formal basis with your coworkers. As adults in society, we all have relatively few human interactions, and it is nice to talk to people who know your name. Yes, you aren't best friends, but I talk to a few of my coworkers as often as any of my friends (not counting my wife), so why not at least try and make that into a pleasant interaction? There are people I met at work who I genuinely became friends with, and still talk to even after they've left the company. Coworkers should have at least something in common, since you both pursued academia for a reason. As for that one colleague in particular, he sounds rather boorish. It happens.

I second those that the writing is the biggest downfall of WoT season 1. Across any medium and time, that if you have series that makes less sense the more you think about it, then it starts to suck. And while the WoT book series is very flawed, it is pretty carefully crafted and thought out, and in the places where Jordan did have some errors, people have pointed them out so they could be corrected in an adaptation. Now, you are going to have to make changes to a WoT adaptation; that is a given. But when the climax of season 1 is a mix of things that only make sense if you read the books, and things that make no sense whether you read the books or not, it's pretty disappointing. I really wanted to like this series, and I am totally fine with them making changes (even big ones!) to make it work on screen. But the changes they made were not good, and the final product was just a mediocre mess.

It wouldn't, but you would have different problems at least. Sometimes that's the best you can do . @Toth Good luck. I really hope that you get the application, and if that doesn't work out, that you are able to get out some other way. I reiterate what other posters said that the relationship you have with your mother sounds clearly abusive, and is making your challenges with anxiety and interactions worse. I firmly believe you would be better off taking care of yourself by yourself.

People seem to be arguing that being specialized towards one particular aspect of athleticism (say running in a straight line very fast) is "more athletic" than being in the top 99% in most/all aspects of athleticism, even if you aren't quite in the top 99.9999999% in any single one of them. That argument makes no sense to me. Plenty of NFL guys were track stars in college. Like, could quite possibly make the US Olympic team fast. But they instead focused on football and become receivers or cornerbacks because they also had the other skills (upper body strength, lateral quickness, hand/eye coordination) that are needed as well. And they did that because virtually nobody becomes a millionaire running track, whereas the hundreds of guys get that playing football.

Barry Trotz fired by the Islanders. They missed the playoffs this year, but made the conference finals the previous two years before that. Seems like a pretty strange move. But I wonder if there's something about Trotz that just rubs people the wrong way, because he was allowed to walk from the Caps after they won the Cup. So twice in five years Trotz is out of a job in spite of having won the cup and made the conference finals two other times in that span.

I just finished the book, and I felt like as an individual book, it was a pretty weak entry (possibly the weakest of the series). The pacing is poor, several key characters are weak, and the Dreamer sequences are IMO a real chore. But as a finale of a 9 book series, it is totally successful. The final showdown goes the way we expected, but it really works. Bringing Miller back was great, I actually laughed out loud from his first line. The buildup over nine books had a real payoff and made sense, something many good authors have failed to deliver. In all, being a successful conclusion is much more important than being a strong single entry. A bad conclusion could undermine the 8 books that came before, and this instead enhances it. This series has been a great ride, and I look forward to rereading it in a few years.