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John Suburbs

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  1. Yeah, that's what I mean. It would be an unlikely match at best. Plus, he just admitted to Tyrion that he ordered the deaths of the children, so why would he lie about Elia? Tywin might not lie, but he is duplicitous. If he feels it is in his interests to lie, or merely ignore the truth, or let others believe a falsehood without correcting it, that's what he'll do. Whatever benefits the greater glory and power of House Lannister.
  2. According to Tywin (for whatever that's worth), he never said Elia was not to be harmed. But I can't see how Tywin would not think she had to be killed, considering she would be a witness to the murders of her children. So Tywin's is probably being disingenuous here. I'm sure Oberyn thinks her death was deliberate on Tywin's part, but I'm not so sure. Rhaegar was already dead and Robert was going to be the new king. If anything, Tywin might consider Elia as a possible bride for Robert, but that is highly unlikely. So I'm leaning toward taking Tywin at his word that he never gave much thought to Elia. His singular focus during this whole thing was to get Jaime back alive.
  3. That's because her death was not political. It was Clegane's decision, not Tywin's, although Tywin should have known it would be necessary. It was to make sure there were no witnesses to Aegon's murder.
  4. Being king takes precedence over being a brother. This is the main reason why Robb cannot put his personal feelings for Sansa above his duty. Everything Joffrey says and does is written down and disseminated across the land. His words at Ned's execution would be no exception, considering this was a huge event in Westeros -- probably the most significant since Aerys' death. These words would have been relayed to Riverrun and Winterfell, just like any other castle in the realm. Robb and Cat, and everybody, would see that this was Joffrey going rogue as easily as they saw that the letter from Sansa was really a letter from the queen, veiled threats and all. Of course they know how important Jaime is to Tywin, otherwise they wouldn't bother keeping him as a hostage. Yes, he upset his bannermen to pursue his own heart, and look what that got him. And personally, I don't think Robb did this of his own volition; he was under the influence of one of grandma Maggie's love potions. But that's neither here nor there. Yes, Sansa and Arya were not worth the kingslayer. If Robb could have it otherwise he would. But he can't, so he made the only decision that was available to him. In hindsight it was a mistake because if gave the Lannisters a wedge to get Winterfell for themselves, but hindsight is always 20/20.
  5. No, it doesn't have to be Winterfell, although its description in Dance would certainly make it seem like it was made of snow. But maybe it's Last Hearth, Karhold, the Dreadfort, Castle Black . . .? They should all be covered in snow as well. As others have mentioned, the GoHH uses sigils to describe other nobles, ei, the golden stag, the flaming heart, the lady who was a fish . . . So the giant could be Baelish, or perhaps an Umber? Or maybe it's not metaphorical at all. Maybe Sansa slays an actual giant. Poor Wun Wun? I just think it's too early to jump to the conclusion that this piddling little trifle over a pretend snow castle is tucked into all these other visions about the great events of the day.
  6. No, everybody knows Ned's execution was Joffrey's snap decision. He stated so publicly, that he was taking Ned's head despite the wishes of his mother and his betrothed. Cersei is Joffrey's regent, so there is no reason to think that Joffrey will go rogue again and kill Sansa, especially now that they have Jaime. Nevertheless, hostages do die for other reasons. Sansa almost died in the bread riots. Robb's Lannister boys died by treachery. Robb knows that but it still doesn't change the facts of the matter: Sansa is not his heir nor is she the key to Winterfell when all of this is being debated. By the time she is, it's too late because Jaime has already been sprung. Elia Martell was killed 15 years ago while the Red Keep was being overrun and the city was being sacked. I doubt very much that her death played into Robb's thinking. It's not about looking weak. It's about maintaining the support of your bannermen, then men who made you king. They can just as easily unmake you if they think you are sacrificing their well-being for your own emotional needs. Doran Martell is not seen as weak, just perhaps overly cautious. Doran is not trading the eldest son of another great house for his sister or daughter. And this would be a different calculation in Dorne anyway because women can inherit there. Roose Bolton is an opportunist. He betrayed Robb because he saw that his cause was lost, in part because he no longer had the kinglsayer.
  7. Ned's death took everyone by surprise. Cersei, and Tyrion, are not going to let that happen again. Sure, it's possible, but like I said, highly unlikely. And this is part of the reason Tyrion put a stop to the beating in the bailey; not because Joffrey was out of line in punishing her for Robb's crimes, but that this level of punishment was too risky. Again, Sansa's death = Jaime's death. But Robb is not going to be able to convince his bannermen that they must give up the kingslayer just because Sansa might die. And remember, back when all of these negotiations were taking place, Bran and Rickon were still safe and sound in Winterfell.
  8. The shadow with the burning heart is Mel's shadow baby butchering Renly, the golden stag. The man without a face, obviously a faceless man, waiting on a swinging bridge, the one that Balon fell from that connects the castles of Pyke. The drowned crow on his shoulder is Euron, who hired the FM. The roaring river and a woman that was a fish, Catelyn, drifting dead with red tears on her cheeks: she was thrown into the Green Fork after clawing her own cheeks upon seeing Robb die. And then her eyes opened to become Lady Stoneheart. A wolf howling in the rain: Grey Wind at the Red Wedding. The clangor of drums, pipes, horns and screams: Red Wedding again. The little bells: Jinglebells being killed. The maid with purple serpents: Sansa and the hairnet at Joffrey's wedding. Same maid killing a giant in a snow castle: Sansa, but where and who? Basically, Arya is going to kill a lot of people, maybe something on the order of Summerhall. But you see how all of these visions are about momentous, paradigm-shifting events? Kings dying, murder and mayhem . . . So why in the midst of all this would she throw in a vision about a silly little doll and a miniature snow castle?
  9. Doubtful. All the other GoHH visions were representations of momentous events like Balon and Joffrey dying, the Red Wedding and such. It would be very incongruous for her to throw in a piddling matter about a doll.
  10. Robb was in a tough spot regarding Sansa. He couldn't trade Jaime for his sisters because it would have looked like an emotional, self-serving move to his bannermen. His lords, after all, made him king, and they could just as easily unmake him. Remember, too, that at the time, Sansa was not his heir, Bran was, and Rickon after, and they were both safe and sound in Winterfell, even after Theon had taken the castle. Robb was off warring in the west when word came down that they had been killed, and by the time he got back to Riverrun it was too late; Cat had already sprung Jaime. The risk of Joffrey executing Sansa are rather low. By now, Joff should know what killing Sansa means killing Jaime, and if Joffrey doesn't fully grasp this, Cersei and Tyrion (and Tywin) do. So I don't think it was because he didn't care; it was that his hands were tied.
  11. Interesting thought experiment. This would be the case if Jon truly and completely dies. Or if we can assume that Bran huddled in Summer or was in some way kept barely alive after his fall (and Bran did seem to strengthen when Summer was near) then Ghost could mean the difference between Jon living and dying.
  12. It's got nothing to do with the wildfire. It's about getting Jaime out of the Red Keep before Aerys kills him or Jaime kills Aerys while at the same time providing a cover story for why Jaime didn't fulfill his vow as a kingsguard by giving his life for his king. I'll bet both Westerling and Crakehall got an earful from Tywin afterward about not hustling Jaime out of the throneroom pronto.
  13. I think he said presenting the bodies of the children showed that he had committed to Robert, not sacking the city. In his conversation with Tyrion, he did say that Jaime was his top concern at that point. Yes, if Tywin had destroyed the rebel army after the Trident, Jaime's life would not be in danger, but he would remain on the KG, ineligible to inherit CR, which is what Tywin wants. If Aerys remains king, he isn't likely to release Jaime because he still needs some way to ensure Tywin's trust. Maybe if Rhaegar became king, but by the time of the sack Rhaegar was dead. And if you look at it from either the rebel or loyalist perspective at the Trident, Tywin's presence would not have been welcome. If he were to suddenly show up saying he's on your side, would you trust him? Where would you put his army? In the van? a flank? the rear? How could you be sure this is not some trick and the moment the battle is joined he wheels around and attacks you? I don't think Tywin could have played it any other way, and he executed it near perfectly. The only cockup was not getting Jaime out of the RK as quickly as possible and then making up some story about how he was overpowered and nearly killed defending Aerys, who then flung himself out of a tower or something.
  14. The problem with either of those approaches is that they would have left Jaime in the KG and given Tyrion a real shot at inheriting Casterly Rock someday. By siding with the rebs, he at least has a chance to get Jaime dismissed so he could become heir. And I don't think the sack was about ingratiating himself to Robert as much as it was about getting Jaime out of the Red Keep alive. Tywin can't openly defy Aerys as long as he has Jaime, and he can't launch an attack on the keep from the walls of the city. So he instigated the sack in order to get his men close enough to the keep, under the guise of putting down the rioters, so that when he finally does attack he can get men like Westerling and Crakehall up over the walls and to Jaime's side before Aerys has him killed.
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