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John Suburbs

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  1. John Suburbs

    Ned and Beric - why such a small force

    I think Ned is counting on the fact that Beric is marching under the authority of the king, flying the king's banner. His goal is to subdue Gregor Clegane and his band of "outlaws", so he must have figured that 120 was enough. As long as Robert is king, Tywin himself would be foolish to attack king's men. It wasn't until after Robert died that Beric was attacked at Mummer's Ford. He knows this much, at least: And a few moment's before: So Ned at least knows that the raiding is a lure to get Edmure to spread his forces and perhaps attack openly, but does he suspect that Tywin is trying to lure Ned into the field? Probably not, but the calculus would still be the same for Ned: Tywin would bring ruin on himself if he attacked the king's party no matter who was leading it.
  2. John Suburbs

    Shae was a Sandsnake?

    All of the Sand Snakes are known to everyone and have been acknowledged by Oberyn, so I would first wonder why he refused to do the same for Shae. Also, I may be wrong, but I don't think we ever see a mention of Shae's skin color -- all I've seen is that she has dark hair and dark eyes. But since we don't get much of Shae's backstory, she could very well be Dornish, although it's a stretch to put her in the ruling family. Personally, I think she was Littlefinger's creature, which makes it very likely that, initially at least, so was Bronn.
  3. Ultimately, I think he'll just become a footnote in history: the Young Wolf who dared for a kingdom and lost. But, granted, that's more than what most Stark lords get, including Ned. If he had won, of course, he would go down as a major historical figure, at least in the north.
  4. Lol, OK, I'll walk back the "very likely." But it is still well within the realm of possibility, so we shouldn't just blithely accept the official version of events as true. Lots of things happening right now appear true at one point in the story only to be proven false later; there's no reason to think this can't be done with historical "truths" as well. None of these people were there. They are classic examples of Martin's "unreliable narrator". They are simply going on what they were told, which became the official history of the realm. But that doesn't make it absolutely true. There are other possibilities that fit within the text. Mad King. None of these men, most of all Connington, has ever said or thought that Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna, nor do we know who was witness to the supposed kidnapping. And again, Yandel is merely repeating the story that was told. It does not make it true. Yandel also says that "... misfortune soon fell up Elia of Dorne and her children ..." and we know that's not true. Odd, don't you think, that all these men are mentioned at all of these other points, and yet not a one of them is named in the kidnapping. Let's see, how could the Mad King entice Rhaegar back to the capital and keep silent about what really happened? How about a letter hand-delivered by the White Bull stating that you are will return to King's Landing, raise a host and defeat my enemies, or Ser Gerold here will drag you back in chains and you and I can sit in the throneroom together and watch as, one by one, your family is slowly, ever so slowly, dipped into a giant vat of wildfire, starting with your infant son and heir. Do you think that would do it? Do you suppose that would finally convince Rhaegar that, upon his return, changes needed to be made? Yes, I walked back on the "very likely" above. I never said there were hints or evidence, just that we shouldn't meekly assume that the official version of events is true.
  5. John Suburbs

    Qyburn in TWoW

    I suspect Qyburn might be Littlefinger's creature, and probably responsible for Ser Mandon.
  6. The only source for this story is some nameless, faceless person who rode up to Brandon on the kingsroad. There are no surviving eyewitnesses to this kidnapping that we know of. So Robert, Ned, Bran, Dany, even Barry and Yandel, only know what they've been told, and that story probably came from the MK. So it is very likely that both Rhaegar and Lyanna were kidnapped, and that Rhaegar was forced to fight his father's enemies and keep his mouth shut or else lose his wife and children in some tortuous, agonizing fashion.
  7. John Suburbs

    Ned's Leg

    I doubt the Lanns would release Ned unless and until Robb bent the knee, disbanded his army and returned north. As long as the north is in rebellion, sending Ned to the Wall would be a huge risk. This is why I don't think Ned's leg was infected, or at least did not appear to be so at the time. The Lanns might not do anything for his pain, and would even remove the leg if it turned septic, but they absolutely must keep him alive as a hedge against Robb. So, yes, he probably would survive a trip to the Wall, but that is not going to happen until the north settles down.
  8. John Suburbs

    An evil girl's dark heart

    Wow, this thread got derailed awfully fast. The reason Arya gets to judge at Harrenhall but not at Braavos is that in HH she was not an acolyte of the GoMF. Faceless Men don't judge, but their clients do. That, in fact, is what the FM do: carry out their client's judgement. JH tells Arya that she owes the Red God three deaths. He will be the one to deliver those deaths but Arya must choose, ie, pass judgement, just like anyone else who hires an FM. All of this is BS, of course because a) he is not Jaquen Hgar; he is No One, and b) he doesn't follow the Red God, he follows the GoMF. So he is playing some other game here, and Arya is the piece. But the point is the same: Arya does not give up her right to judge until she pledges herself to the GoMF, with the implication being that if she does not learn this lesson she will not be given a face. The fact that she has been given a face and still has not learned this lesson, nor fully accepted herself as No One, aught to make some pretty interesting reading going forward. PS: Reread the scene where Arya and co. free the northmen. You'll see that Jaquen himself only kills one man. Rorge and Biter do the rest.
  9. The Reach and Dorne are ancient enemies -- a hostility that dates back thousands of years. It was only by happenstance that both principal houses supported Aerys during the rebellion, but even then they were largely kept to separate theaters (The Martells to the Trident and the Tyrells mostly to Storm's End.) So I doubt very much that they are in league now, even though both have a vested interest in undoing the power grab that Tywin is making in the realm. Much of your confusion regarding the Purple Wedding comes from the common belief that Joffrey was the target and the poison was in the wine. Hopefully the next book will put that silly assumption to rest by stating plainly that the poison was in the pie and the target was Tyrion. This would strike a severe blow to Tywin by undoing his marriage to the north and getting Sansa out from his control, and it would also mean Margaery becomes queen while Cersei is shipped off to her next husband. Once Margery pops out an heir or two, Joffrey can be removed -- privately, and with no witnesses -- so that Margaery becomes queen regent for the next decade or so, and then her son after.
  10. John Suburbs

    How was Tywin’s going to handle the “Joff Problem”

    Lol, love yer name, Foot of the King. You're probably right. It's the realization that he cannot control everything no matter how powerful a lord he's become.
  11. John Suburbs

    Duncan saved Rhaegar despite Aegon V?

    All perfectly plausible, but are you assuming that the fire was deliberate, not accidental?
  12. John Suburbs

    Duncan saved Rhaegar despite Aegon V?

    Like who? All Targaryens have a motive to get their dragons back. Who knows what the maesters were plotting back then? Jenny and her WW are angling to bring about the PTWP, who would only be more powerful with a dragon. All kinds of motives could be at play here.
  13. John Suburbs

    How was Tywin’s going to handle the “Joff Problem”

    Tywin's problem here isn't political, it's practical. Tyrion's sharp lesson came in the form of torture for someone he cared about. Joffrey cares for no one, save perhaps his mother. Tywin can't very well have Cersei beaten, nor can he do the same to Joffrey. And neither lesson would likely improve Joffrey's behavior anyway -- in fact, it would probably drive an even bigger wedge between Tywin and Joff. So Tywin's frustration doesn't come from an inability to act. It comes from not having a viable option that will result in an improved Joffrey.
  14. John Suburbs

    How was Tywin’s going to handle the “Joff Problem”

    I think the reason Tywin was "more upset than he wished to show" is that he realizes Joff cannot receive the same kind of lesson that Tyrion did and that his (Tywin's) options are fairly limited. The only sharp lesson that would really make an impact on Joff is for Tywin to pull his military support and leave Joff pretty much defenseless on his throne, which would run the risk of surrendering Lannister hold on the IT.
  15. John Suburbs

    Duncan saved Rhaegar despite Aegon V?

    Anyone who was there. Prince Duncan perhaps? Archmaester Gyldayn? Jenny of Oldstones? Her little woods witch? Maybe even Jaehaerys. Perhaps they were all in on it.